The Binomial Probability Distribution

Definition: A binomial experiment is one that has these five characteristics:

1. The experiment consists of n identical results.
2. Each trial results in one of two outcomes: one outcome is called a success, S, and the other a
failure, F.
3. The probability of success on a single trial is equal to p and remains the same from trial to trial.
The probability of failure is equal to (1 - p) = q.
4. The trials are independent.
5. We are interested in x, the number of successes observed during the n trials, for x = 0, 1, 2, , n.
Example 1
Suppose there are approximately 1,000,000 adults in a country and an unknown proportion p
favor term limits for politicians. A sample of 1000 adults will be chosen in such a way that every one of
the 1,000,000 adults has an equal chance of being selected, and each adult is asked whether he or she
favors
term limits. (The ultimate objective of this survey is to estimate the unknown proportion p, a problem that
we will discuss in Chapter 8 ). Is this a binomial experiment?
Solution
Does the experiment have the five binomial characteristics?
1. A trial is the choice of a single adult from the 1,000,000 adults in the country. This sample
2.

consists of n = 1000 identical trials.

Since each adult will either favor or not favor term limits, there are two outcomes that represent

the successes and failures in the binomial experiment.

3. The probability of success, p, is the probability that an adult favors term limits. Does this
probability remain the same for each adult in the sample? For all practical purposes, the answer is
yes. For example, if 500,000 adults in the population favor term limits, then the probability of a
success when the first adult is chosen is 500,000 / 1,000,000 = 1/ 2. When the second adult is
chosen, the probability p changes slightly, depending on the first choice. That is, there will be
either 499,999 or 500,000 successes left among the 999,999 adults. In either case, p is still
approximately equal to 1/ 2.

4. The independence of the trials is guaranteed because of the large group of adults from which the
sample is chosen. The probability of an adult favoring term limits does not change depending on
the response of previously chosen people.
5. The random variable x is the number of adults in the sample who favor term limits.
Example No.2
A purchaser who has received a shipment consisting of 20 personal Computers, want to sample 3 PCs to
see whether they are in working order before accepting the shipment. The nearest three Pcs are selected
for testing and afterward are declared either defective or non-defective unknown to the purchaser .Two of
the PCs in the shipment of 20 are defective. Is this a binomial experiment?
Solution:
Does the experiment have the five binomial characteristics?
1.
2.
3.
4.

n=3 is the identical

Each trial results in one of two outcomes i.e. pc is defective or non-defective i.e. S or F.
Probability of draw is a defective from 20 is 2/10.
The condition of indecencies between trials is not satisfied. For example, the first trial results in a
defective Pc, then there is only one defective left among 19 in the shipment there p/ defective in
the remaining PC is =1/19

Rule of thumb:

If the sample size is large relative to the population size, in particular, if

n
0.05 , then the resulting
N

experiment is not binomial.

There are two set.

Population set (utility of whole the observation)

Sample ( a subset of population)

Binomial probability distribution:

A binomial experiment consists of n identical trials with probability of success p on each trial. The
probability of k successes in n trials is

p ( x=k )=C nk p k qnk =

n!
p k qnk for k=0,1,2 ; , 4
k ! ( nk ) !

=np , 2=npq
Example
Find

P(x=2) for a binomial random variable with n=10 and

Solution:

=np=10 ( 0.1 )=1

2

=n . p . q=10 ( 0.1 )( 0.9 ) =0.9

Population mean =

Sample mean x =

xi
where N represent the no . of element
N

xi
n

Population varience

( x i )
=

( x ix )
Sample varience S =
2

Where N=Number of elementsa population

n=number of element ina sample

p=0.1 .

Lecture No.2
Example
Over a long period of time, it has been observed that a professional basketball player can make a free
throw on a given trial with probability equal to .8. Suppose he fires four shoots at the target.
1. What is the probability that he will hit the target exactly two times?
2. What is the probability that he will hit the target at least once?
Solution

If you find

k =3 in the table, the table value is

Since you want only

P ( x 3 )=P ( 0 ) + P (1 )+ P ( 2 ) + P ( 3 )

P ( x=3 )=P ( 3 )

You must subtract out unwanted probability

P ( x 2 ) =P ( 0 )+ P ( 1 ) + P ( 2 )
Which is found in table with

k =2

Then

P ( x=3 )=P ( x 3 )P ( x 2 )=0.6630.317=0.346

2. To find

P (threemore success )=P ( x 3 )

Using table, you must use the compliment of the event of interest, write

P ( x 3 )=1P ( x <3 )=1P ( x 2 )

You can find

P ( x 2 ) table with k =2,then P ( x 3 ) =1P ( x 2 )=10.317=0.683

THE POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Poissons probability distribution provides a good model for data that represent the number of
occurrences of a specified event in a given unit of time or space. Here are some examples of experiments
for which the random variable x can be modeled by the Poisson random variable:
The number of calls received by a technical support specialist during a given period of time

 The number of bacteria per small volume of fluid.

The number of customer arrivals at a checkout counter during a given minute
The number of machine breakdowns during a given day
The number of traffic accidents on a section of freeway during a given time period
In each example, x represents the number of events that occur in a period of time or space during which
an average of such events can be expected to occur. The only assumptions needed when one uses the
Poisson distribution to model experiments such as these are that the counts or events occur randomly and
independently of one another.
THE POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Let be the average number of times that an event occurs in a certain period of time or space. The
probability of k occurrences of this event is

The symbol e=2.71828 . . . is evaluated using your scientific calculator, which should have a function
such as ex. For each value of k, you can obtain the individual probabilities for the Poisson random
variable, just as you did for the binomial random variable.
Example:

Solution:

Lecture No.3
THE POISSON APPROXIMATION TO THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
The Poisson probability distribution provides a simple, easy to compute, and accurate approximation to
binomial probabilities when n is large and =n p

is small, preferably with

np<7 .

Example
Suppose a life insurance company insures the lives of 5000 men aged 42. If actuarial studies show the
probability that any 42-year-old man will die in a given year to be .001, find the exact probability that the
company will have to pay x=4 claims during a given year.
Solution:
The exact probability is given by the binomial distribution as:

1
0.00

P ( x=4 )=P ( 4 )=

5000!

4 ! 4996 !

For which binomial tables are not available. To compute P(x=4) without the aid of a scientific calculator
or a computer would be very time-consuming, but the Poisson distribution can be used to provide a good
approximation to P(x=4). Computing

=np=( 5000 ) ( .001 )= 5 and substituting into the formula for

the Poisson probability distribution, we have

Example No.2

A manufacturer of power lawn mowers buys 1-horsepower, two-cycle engines in lots of 1000 from a
supplier. She then equips each of the mowers produced by her plant with one of the engines. History
shows that the probability of any one engine from that supplier proving unsatisfactory is .001. In a
shipment of 1000 engines, what is the probability that none is defective? Three are? Four are?
Solution:
This is a binomial experiment with
a shipment of

n=1000 and

n=1000 engines is

p=.001 .

The expected number of defectives in

=np=( 1000 ) ( .001 )=1.

Since this is a binomial experiment with np=7 , the probability of

shipment may be approximated by

THE HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

x defective engines in the

Example:
A case of milk has 12 bottles, 3 of which contain spoiled milk. A sample of 4 bottles is randomly selected
from the case.
1. Find the probability distribution for x, the number of bottles of spoiled milk in the sample.
2. What are the mean and variance of x?
Solution:
For this example, N=12, n=4, M=3, and (N-M) =9. Then