King Sabata Dalindyebo

Municipality, Eastern Cape

Foresight Scenarios
for 2030
Cofisa Closing Conference
February 2010
Silimela Development Services
www.silimelaafrica.com
Scenario Planning as
managing a creative
tension:

# 1: Probabilistic Projections
and Models:
–Objective and “professional’
–Past Trends Projected
– Key Driving Forces Estimated
–Infinite complex matrices
–Modelling vectors of inter-
dependent causation
The Creative Tension in
Scenario Planning:

#2 : Collective Imagining :

–Subjective and imaginative

–Embraces all
–Based upon the predictive
power of stories
–A few plausible outcomes
EXAMPLE: By 2050 people will
travel in flying cars, get much of
their power from renewable
energy and live a life of luxury in
a world without borders
Optimistic image of the future that
emerged from a survey of young
adults in 27 countries worldwide
YANG =
Probabilistic

YIN =
Collective Imagining
The Project Location: Eastern
Cape
 Local Development Challenges

• Very high unemployment

• Youth, old age and poverty dependency
• Major disparity between rural and urban
• Spatial remoteness
• Institutional complexity
– Mthatha as a former homeland capital
• Municipality struggling to come to terms
with
• Basic service delivery
• Infrastructure backlogs
• Financial viability
• Short and long term planning
 The Process Intent
Bring together the views and insights of
– Government
– Local business
– Civil society organisations
– Research institutions
…in an inclusive and effective manner in order
to be able to stimulate a useful perspective on
the long term (2030) future.
 Process Challenges
1. Mobilising a critical mass of stakeholders so as to be
able to conduct a truly strategic conversation
2. Buy in from municipality.
3. Engaging with the (recent) KSD 2030 Master Plan
4. Enabling all participants to share in the conversation
5. Balancing technical perspective with authentic
thinking of participants.
6. Conducting the conversation skilfully
7. Introducing foresight into strategic decision making
in KSD
 Project Participation Structures
Steering Committee:
– COFISA
– Municipal Manager
– NPDG
– DBSA
Municipal Leadership Group (MLG)
Reference Group
– Organised Business
– Walter Sisulu and Rhodes University
– Community Organisations
– Provincial Government
Key Steps in The Process
 Step One: Process Alignment (July
2009)

• Previous research and policy documents

• Stakeholder database
• Mobilisation & communication plan
 Step Two: Research Foundation
(June/ July 2009)
• Probabilistic Analysis
• Past KSD socio-economic trends
• Three SA scenario exercises
– Presidency
– Dinokeng
– COFISA Eastern Cape
• Many international studies and
scenario exercises
8 KEY DRIVING FORCES
1: The world becoming more joined up
2: Oil getting more scarce
3: The world getting hotter
4: Amazing new technology
5. World tourism boom
6: Africa growing fast
7: South Africa at the crossroads
8: The Eastern Cape’s treasures for the
future
 Step Three: Technical Alignment (July
2009)
COFISA Eastern Cape Biotech Scenarios
 Step Three
The Proto Scenario Quadrants
 Step Four: Municipal Leadership
Alignment (September 2009)

• Implications of scenarios process for the KSD

Vision 2030 and Master Plan
• Explanation of scenario planning concepts and
scenarios affecting KSD
• Agreeing on how best to engage other
stakeholders in a scenario building process
Step Five: Scenario Generation
(October 2009)
Participants were asked: tell
us how these three toddlers
in different settings grow up
to 2030?
Example
• Lulama, born 15 October
2008 in Ngangelizwe
Township in Mthatha
• 22 years old in 2030
 What happens to
Lulama...
• Completed Matric in Ngangelizwe
• Received bursary from KSD
• Has honours in Environmental Science
• Registered for a Masters degree
• Learned business skills from local role models
• Working as a consultant in environmental management
• Has contributed towards improving natural assets, esp.
Rivers
• Passionate about rebuilding and reclaiming Mthatha
• Also runs an office in Durban, works remotely
• Lives in her own flat close to the CBD
 What happens to the setting:
Mthatha Othathayo 2030

• Economic infrastructure has improved esp. the completion of

Mthatha-Kokstad rail line
• Public transport system is good
• Airport Upgrades
• Improved Agriculture – food security
• Rail networks links products to markets
• ICT Development
• Use CCTV (Close Circuit Television)- to fight crime
• Water is clean and recreation areas are good, clean air,
contributing towards good quality of life
• Better housing – through mixed use high density development
• Mthatha has grown due to its strategic location between East
London, Kokstad, Queenstown and enhanced rail system
Participants were then asked: To make
the good things in these stories come
true, what needs to happen in KSD?

Product = 7 Directions for the Future

1. Fix Mthatha
2. Boost Farming
3. Pull Social Development Together
4. Drive Technology- knowledge
5. Launch Tourism
6. Connect up Rail and Road
7. Build Collective Leadership
Participants asked again: How will the 7
Directions play out in the 4 Proto
Scenarios?

Product = 4 probable and collectively

imagined scenarios

• Mihla Ngemihla (Business As Usual)

• Gxaba Gxabiso (Quick Results)
• Intlakohlazo (Greener than Usual)
• Inkqubela Phambili Sibambisene (Sustainable
Development)
 SERVICE DELIVERY

OFF GRID
People-driven
Gated development Social capital focus
Recycling
INVESTMENT AND

Big Malls
Mega-farms Cultivates local
Mass-resorts investment
TECHNOLOGY

Depends on outside Community Technology

investors Small farm collectives
BIG BOX OLD TECH GREEN TECH
Infrastructure Backlogs Some pilot projects
Subsistence Farms Only a few benefit
Grudge Tourism Rural community left
Little private investment behind
Relies on government Green town & villages
Relies on government
ON GRID
 Step Six: Scenario Implications
(October 2009)
The second multi stakeholder “Choices We Make
Today” workshop
• reviewed and refined the four 2030 scenarios
• gave names for the scenarios that could capture
community interest and involvement in future
communication of the process
• identified key strategic choices that KSD needs
to make.
Step Seven: Reflection and Closure
(November 2009)

Final Steering Committee workshop:

• distilled key learning’s from the process

in regard to long term planning for KSD
• Suggested replication of the process in
other communities in South Africa
 PROCESS SUMMARY

Three Stories of Life in

(3) KSD in 2030

stories
Seven 2030
(4) Directions/ Issues
Impacting on KSD’s
future

(2) 8 Key Driving Forces 5 Past KSD Trends (1)

(5)
4 KSD 2030 Scenarios
incl. Preferred
Scenario

(6)
KSD Strategic Choices
KSD 2030 & Implementation KSD IDP
Master Plan Recommendations
 LESSONS LEARNED

The process was successful and can

be replicated
– high level of interest and participation
– “brought the future home”
– local leadership fully engaged
– broad awareness of
• future threats and opportunities
• the choices which need to be made soon
 LESSONS LEARNED

Work in progress:

– Extending the conversation to the

broader community
– Managing the risk of perceived
powerlessness
• long term regional infrastructural issues
such as rail connectivity and off grid power
generation
• Fragmented delivery of social development
services
 LESSONS LEARNED
–Cementing a capable long term
partnership
–Translating the “sustainable
development” scenario into
• concrete 5/10/15 year programme of
action
• coupled with local IDP and other
donor and government programmes
Core Donor(s) needed to assist!
 Thank you

Shahid Solomon
shahid@silimelaafrica.com
www.silimeelaafrica
083 377 2704