Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change Impacts

10/7/2010

Climate Change Impacts on

Cold Regions Infrastructure
Orson P
P. Smith
Smith, PE
PE, Ph
Ph.D.
D
School of Engineering

Introduction

University of Alaska Anchorage

October 2010

University of Alaska Anchorage

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change Impacts

10/7/2010

IPCC Report

The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
g
g ((IPCC),
), was convened in
1988 by UN Environmental Program and the World Meteorological
Organization
to assess scientific and socio-economic information relevant to climate change,
to estimate potential climate change impacts and
to suggest options for mitigation and adaptation.

The IPCC has completed four major reports, as well as various special reports
p p
and technical papers.
For more information: http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/index.html

UAA School of Engineering

October 2010

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Module 1b

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

A project of the Arctic Council and the

International Arctic Science Committee

results released November 2004
http://www.acia.uaf.edu/

UAA School of Engineering

October 2010

University of Alaska Anchorage

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Module 1b

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change Impacts

10/7/2010

State of Alaska Efforts

Joint Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission

report published 2008:
http://www.housemajority.org/coms/cli/cli_finalreport_20080301.pdf

The Climate Change Sub-Cabinet, created in 2007,

advises Governor on Alaska climate change strategy
p
p
g
g
workingg ggroupp reports:
http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/

UAA School of Engineering

October 2010

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Module 1b

Average Global Temperature Trend

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

UAA School of
Engineering October 2010

University of Alaska Anchorage

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Module 1b

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change Impacts

10/7/2010

Extreme Warming in the Far North

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
UAA School of
Engineering October 2010

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Module 1b

Sea Level Rise

Figures from EPA website:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/

UAA School of
Engineering October 2010

University of Alaska Anchorage

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Module 1b

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change Impacts

10/7/2010

Spatial variability is important

Extract of Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost
and
Ground Ice Conditions
1997

Permafrost changes
Thaw subsidence

Permafrost
Chf
Cmf
Clf

Source Data
U.S. Geological Survey
International Permafrost Association

Continuous
(90 - 100%)

Chr
Clr

Dhf
Dmf
Dlf

Discontinuous
(50 - 90%)

Dhr
Dlr

Shf
Smf

Increased flux of
sediments into
steams and the
coastal ocean

Slf
Shr

Sporadic
(10 - 50%)

Slr
Ihf
Imf
Ilf
Ihr

Isolated
P t h
Patches
(0 - 10%)

Ilr

glacier
ocean/Inland seas
land

Subsea
sea-ice edge limit
subsea permafrost limit

500

500

treeline

Kilometers

University of Alaska Anchorage

October 2010

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

Permafrost foundations at risk

Alaska Community and Highway Permafrost Exposure
#

#
#
#

#
#

#
#

##
#

# #

#
#
# # #

#
#

#
#
#
## ##
##
##
###
#
# #
#
## # #
#
#
# ## #
#
# # ###
##
#

#
# ##
##
#
# ##
#

##

##

#
# ##
#
#
# # ##
#

#
#
# #
#

##### #
# #
##
#
# #
### # #
##
#
#
#
####
#
##

#
#

# #
##
#
##
# ##
##
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
# ##
####
#
##
#

#
##

#
#
# #
#
#

##
# ###
#

##
#

####

##
#

#
#

##
# ##

##

#
#

#
#
#
##
##

#
#

##

##

##
##
##

###
##
# #
#

##

500

500

##

Kilometers

Source Data
U.S. Geological Survey
International Permafrost Association
and
Alaska Department of Natural Resources GIS Database

Summary of Alaska Highways Susceptible to Permafrost

Suseptible Roads
Continuous (90 - 100%)
Permafrost Extent

Road Distance (km)

Discontinuous (50 - 90%)

Sporadic (10 - 50%)
Less than 10%

Continuous (90 - 100%)

Discontinuous (50 - 90%)
Sporadic (10 - 50%)
Less than 10%

734
1950
307
452

Suseptible Communities
#

About 90,000
90 000 Alaskans
live in permafrost areas
21 % of Alaskas road
miles are on continuous
permafrost
57 % road miles are on
discontinuous permafrost

#
#
#
#
#

Continuous (90 - 100%)

Summary of Alaska Communities Susceptible to Permafrost

#

Discontinuous ( 50 - 90%)

Less than 10%

Sporadic ( 10 - 50%)

Permafrost Extent
Continuous (90 - 100%)
Discontinuous (50 - 90%)
Sporadic (10 - 50%)
Less than 10%

GEOMATICS

University of Alaska Anchorage

October 2010

University of Alaska Anchorage

Total Communities
87
79
26
129

Population
40811
47140
5235
396821

Cartographic Illustration:
Wm. J. Lee

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

10

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change Impacts

10/7/2010

Changes in Terrestrial Conditions

Melting glaciers
Thawing permafrost
At higher latitudes and
elevations
More snow accumulation
More avalanches

At lower latitudes and

elevations

Avalanche
near Cordova,
Alaska

Less snow
More winter rain
More irregular streamflow
University of Alaska Anchorage
October 2010

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

11

Changes in Streamflow

More rainfall
Increased runoff
Increased flooding
Thawing permafrost
banks
Accelerated erosion
High sediment loads
Repeated breakups
More ice jams
University of Alaska Anchorage
October 2010

University of Alaska Anchorage

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

Ice Jam
Occurrences
by Drainage Basin

12

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change Impacts

10/7/2010

Alaska roadway concerns

More freeze-thaw cycles

More frost heave,
differential settlement,
and cracking
Asphalt redesign and
replacement
Embankment erosion
increase
i
More sand and de-icers
Increased maintenance
cost

University of Alaska Anchorage

October 2010

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

13

Bridge and culvert problems

MP 228 Richardson Highway
One Mile Creek Bridge
g

photo by Alaska Dept. Transportation & Public Facilities

University of Alaska Anchorage

October 2010

University of Alaska Anchorage

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

14

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change Impacts

10/7/2010

Mudslides in old-growth forests

McCarthy mud slide

photo by Alaska Dept. Transportation & Public Facilities

University of Alaska Anchorage

October 2010

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

15

Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline System

42 % on continuous
permafrost and
43 % on discontinuous
permafrost

TAPS Permafrost Map

photo by Alyeska Pipeline Service Company

University of Alaska Anchorage

October 2010

University of Alaska Anchorage

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

16

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change Impacts

10/7/2010

Thaw Bulb under Pipeline Supports

Typical Conditions

Excessive Thaw

figures by Alyeska Pipeline Service Company

University of Alaska Anchorage

October 2010

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

17

Pipeline Monitoring and

Preventive Maintenance
Th
Thermopile
il monitoring
it i

S
Support
t replacement
l
t

Yellow/orange: warmer
Blue/purple: cooler

photos by Alyeska Pipeline Service Company

University of Alaska Anchorage

October 2010

University of Alaska Anchorage

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

18

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change Impacts

10/7/2010

Marine transportation opportunities

Waterborne commerce is
critical to Alaska
Plan for shipping
opportunities

Less ice
More northern routes
New
N northern
h ports

River flow increases may

improve navigability
University of Alaska Anchorage
October 2010

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

19

Rural infrastructure concerns

Exacerbated
E
b t d permafrost
f t
foundation problems
Water supply and waste
disposal changes
Most site data is sparse
andd outdated
td t d

University of Alaska Anchorage

October 2010

University of Alaska Anchorage

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

20

10

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change Impacts

10/7/2010

Arctic coastal communities at risk

Sea level rise

Flooding
Erosion
Salt intrusion

Little Diomede, Alaska

More frequent and

intense storms

Little Diomede
Diomede, Alaska

Surges
Wave energy
Kivalina, Alaska
University of Alaska Anchorage
October 2010

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

21

Engineers views from meetings

Proven responses exist for most warming problems

Accurate knowledge of change saves money
Synthesize existing data
Monitor changes statewide
Improve data transfer
Refine predictions
g software to
Revise codes,, manuals,, and design
account for climate change

University of Alaska Anchorage

October 2010

University of Alaska Anchorage

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

22

11

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change Impacts

10/7/2010

Alaska Road Weather Information

System (ARWIS)
http://www.dot.state.ak.us/iways/roadweather/

Growing network of

Roadway weather monitors

Web cameras
Links to weather reports and forecasts
Road condition reports
Travel advisory reports
Developed and operated by the Alaska Dept. of

Transportation and Public Facilities

University of Alaska Anchorage

October 2010

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

23

Alaska Ocean Observing System

AOOS is one of a nationwide body of regional

ocean monitoring efforts (http://www.aoos.org/)

(http://www aoos org/)
AOOS sponsors ocean data collection and
predictions
in collaboration with NOAA and other agencies

University of Alaska
Anchorage October 2010

University of Alaska Anchorage

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

24

12

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change Impacts

10/7/2010

Conclusion

University of Alaska Anchorage

October 2010

University of Alaska Anchorage

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering

Climate Change & Infrastructure

25

13