Innovation & Disruption on

the Road to ABUNDANCE

Peter H. Diamandis, MD
2014 Michigan CEO Summit November 14

Live Tweeting? Im @PeterDiamandis

ABUNDANCE:
The Future Is Better Than You Think
#1 on Amazon; #2 on New York Times

We are heading towards a

world of Abundance

Why?

AMYGDALA

ALL VISUAL INFORMATION

ALL AUDIO INFORMATION

Evidence for Abundance

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)

Global Income
Lifespan
Food
Energy
Transportation
Communications

The End of Poverty (June 2013)

The Decline of Violence

In primitive societies
15% of people died
violently; now 0.03% do
Violence is 1/500th of what
it used to be.
- Prof. Steven Pinker, Harvard

Re-defining Poverty
In America today, those classified as poor:
99% have electricity, water, flushing toilets & a refrigerator
95% have a television
88% have a telephone
70% have a car & air conditioning

This is far superior to Ford or Vanderbilt.

We are redefining what we call poor.
Source: The Rational Optimist, Matt Ridley

FORCE: Rising Billion

8.0

Global Population
Internet Users

GLOBAL POPULATION (BILLIONS)

7.0
6.0

66%

5.0
4.0

3 BILLION

NEW MINDS

3.0

23%

2.0
1.0
0.0

6%

2000

2010

2020

What will 3 Billion New Minds

create

discover
consume

desire

invent

Tens of trillions of annual PP

Greatest period of Innovation (ever)

(1) Exponential Technologies

(2) BOLD Mindset

SINGULARITY UNIVERSITY
NASA AUTODESK GOOGLE CISCO NOKIA GENENTECH
Mountain View, California

10 + Impact

www.SingularityU.org

What does EXPONENTIAL

growth feel like?

Take 30

13
12

LINEAR
paces

10
09

05
04
02
01

03

06

07

11

08

30 meters

Take 30

EXPONENTIAL
steps

26X
around

the Earth!

01 02

04 08 16 32

64 128 256

1,073,741,824 meters

Disruptive Stress
/Opportunity

LINEAR

EXPONENTIAL

1996

2012

April 2012

MarketCap: $28B

Bankrupt

MarketCap: $1B

Employees: 140,000

Employees: 17,000

Employees: 13

The New Kodak Moment

In 10 years, its predicted that

40% of the Fortune 500 Companies
will no longer exist.
* Babson Olin School of Business, Fast Company April 2011, page 121.

The average lifespan of a company listed in the

S&P 500 has significantly decreased:

In the 1920s = 67 years
Today = 15 years
- Richard Foster, Yale University

Ive got an Idea!

I run a $Billion company.
Youtube

Oculus VR

Instagram

Whatsapp

Dropbox

Snapchat

Uber

AirBnb

Calculations/Sec per $1000 computer

FORCE: EXPONTENTIALLY GROWING TECH

Calculations per Second per $1000

The exponential growth of

computing on a Logarithmic Plot
Calc./second for a $1000 laptop vs. Time

2050
2023
2010
Year

6Ds Exponential Framework

Democratize

Demonetize
Dematerialize
Disruptive
Digitized
(Information Tech)

Deceptive

Dematerialization

20 Years later
All of these fit in
your pocket

Demonetization

Taxi Fleets

Long Distance
Book Stores

Research/Libraries
Hotel Chains
Classifieds

Democratization

African Mobile Growth: >1B by 2016

Technologies Riding Moores Law

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

Infinite Computing
Sensor & Networks
Robotics
3D Printing
Synthetic Biology
Digital Medicine
Nanomaterials
Artificial Intelligence

Watson vs. Humans on Jeopardy

Artificial Intelligence

Infinite Computing
2,880 POWER7 processor cores;

16 Terabytes of RAM
200 million pages of content (Wikipedia)
Process 1 million books per second

CLOUD

Sensor Explosion
Steven Sasson

1000x Resolution
1000x Lighter
1000x Cheaper

1,000,000,000 x better

1976 1st Digital Camera

0.01 MP / 3.75 lbs / $10K

2014 Digital Camera

>10 MP / 0.03 lbs / $10

1 BILLION TIMES BETTER

1,000x Resolution & 1,000 lighter & 1,000 cheaper

Sensor Explosion

Accelerometer: $1

Early Rocket Navigation

Inertial Measurement Unit
1960s $ Millions 50 lbs
Velocity/Orientation/Accel.

Molecular Machines
Free & embedded
Gyroscope: $3

Sensor Explosion

1st commercial GPS Receiver in 1981

Weight: 53 lbs; Cost: $119,900

Single Chip GPS Receiver

2010; <$5 each

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Robotics- Boston Dynamics / Google

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Robotics - Googles Autonomous Car

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Robotics - Googles Autonomous Car

Light Detection And Ranging)

Paradigm Change: Robotics/Sensors

LIDAR
64 lasers
10 RPM
LIDAR: Light Detection
& Ranging

1.3 mil datapoints or

750 Mbytes/second

Robotics - Googles Autonomous Car

Light Detection And Ranging)

Perfect Knowledge, Anything Anytime

LEO Constellations
~ .5m global resolution
5 Known Constellations
Including Skybox

Quad Copter
~ 1 cm global resolution
Plummeting costs
Solar Powered

Google Glass
~ 1 mm global resolution

3D Printing A $10 Trillion Industry

3D Printing - Disrupting a $10 Trillion Manufacturing Industry

Ten (10) 3D printed houses

in 24 hrs for <$5K each

3D Printing

Genome Sequencing & Synthetic Biology

2001 (Sequenced First Human)
$100M & 1 year $1K & minutes

Making 100 Years

old, the new 60.

Microbiome

Full-body MRI
Metabolomics

Human Genome

Proteomics

Phenotype Data

Premier Human
Health Database

Four Critical Insights

1st Insight: The only constant is change & the rate of
change is increasing.

2nd Insight: You either disrupt your own company/products,

or someone else will. Standing still = death.
3rd Insight: Competition is no-longer the multinational
overseas. It is the explosion of exponentially empowered
entrepreneurs.
4th Insight : Your Mindset matters, a lot...

(1) Exponential Technologies

(2) BOLD Mindset

Googles Moonshot Thinking

Astro Teller Chief of Moonshots

What is your moonshot?

What is one area of your business
where you should shoot for 10x
growth, rather than 10%?

Googles 8 Innovation Principals

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

Focus on the user

Open will win
Ideas come from everywhere
Think big, start small
Never fail to fail
Launch early and iterate
Be a platform, float all boats
Make it matter

Lockheed Skunk Works

Kelly Johnson

1st Jet (P-80) in 143 days (in 1943). U2. SR-71

Kelly Johnson & GoogleX Rules

(1) Massive Transformative Purpose (MTP):

A Bold, Compelling Vision Win over Nazis

(2) Small Teams: The # of people connected to the project
should be restricted in an almost vicious manner.
(3) Extreme Isolation: Access by outsiders to the project
and its personnel must be strictly controlled.

Kelly Johnson & GoogleX Rules

(4) Authority & Autonomy: The Manager must have control
of his program on a day-to-day basis.
(5) Flexibility: You must provide a very simple drawing with
great flexibility for making changes.

(6) Testing & Experimentation: The contractor must test

product in the initial stages, and final product in flight.

Billionaire Thinking Strategies: Thinking at Scale

1. Passion & Purpose

2. Rapid Experimentation

3. Customer-Centric thinking
4. Risk Mitigation

5. Long-term thinking
6. Optimistic thinking

Thinking at Scale: Passion and Purpose

I didnt go into the rocket business, the car
business, or the solar business thinking this is a

great opportunity. I just thought, in order to make a

difference, something needed to be done. I wanted

to have an impact, I wanted to create something

substantially better than what came before.

- Elon Musk

Thinking at Scale: Experimentation

The amount of useful invention you do is directly
proportional to the number of experiments you can run

per week per month per year. If youre going to

increase the number of experiments, youre also going

to increase the number of failures. Youve got to be

willing to be misunderstood for long periods of time.

- Jeff Bezos

Thinking at Scale: Customer-Centric

How do we decide whats really important to work
on? I like to call it the toothbrush test: do you use
it as often as you use your toothbrush? I guess
thats twice a day. We use Gmail & YouTube much
more than twice a day. Those things are amazing.
- Larry Page

Thinking at Scale: Risk Mitigation

Superficially, I think it looks like entrepreneurs

have a high tolerance for risk. But, one of the

most important phrases in my life is protect the
downside.

- Richard Branson

Thinking at Scale: Long-Term Thinking

We will continue to make investment decisions in
light of long-term market leadership considerations

rather than short-term profitability considerations or

short-term Wall Street reactions. we choose to

prioritize growth because we believe that scale is

central to achieving the potential of our business.

- Jeff Bezos

Thinking at Scale: Optimistic Thinking

Im tremendously optimistic, Im certain that
whatever challenges we take on, we can solve with a

little bit of concerted effort and some good

technology. And thats an exciting place to be. [It

means] our job is really to make the world better. We

need to get better organized and move a lot faster.
- Larry Page

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