Ranges (Up till 12.

00pm HKT)
Currency

Currency

EURUSD

1.0746-62

EURJPY

132.33-495

USDJPY

123.03-26

EURGBP

0.7110-155

GBPUSD

1.5111-24

USDSGD

1.4214-41

USDCHF
AUDUSD

1.0015-43
0.7041-55

USDTHB
USDKRW

35.88-92
1156.1-1158.98

NZDUSD

0.6521-42

USDTWD

32.645-830

USDCAD

1.3264-88

USDCNH

6.3840-6.3900

AUDNZD

1.0780-1.0801

XAU

1090.9-1093.5

Key Headlines

There are four ECB speakers to watch for today.

Event risk in Portugal today as Left Bloc and

Communist parties expected to join noconfidence vote to unseat PM Pedro Passos
Coelho.

little firmer this morning and that provided resistance.

The danger is in the market position. Global Positioning
Index is indicating maximum short Cad. Offers are seen
above 1.3280 and thereafter; bids are below 1.3230.

Who said what

FX Flows
Euro is trapped between offers atop 1.0790 and profit
taking bids ahead of an option strike at 1.0700. Stop buy
orders are developing above 1.0815 but dont think that
is a thread for now. Event risk in Portugal to keep an
watch for. Left Bloc and Communist parties are expected
to join a no-confidence vote Tuesday to unseat PM
Coelho. Heard there are some EurGbp stops under
0.7100.
There are four ECB speakers today. Daniele Nouy speaks
at 9:15am CET; ECB Weidmann at 10.00am CET in
Frankfurt; Coeure at 12.15pm CET and Constancio at
Ecofin Meeting in Brussels.

News & Data

There were NzdCad selling this morning out of an Aussie

bank, which took Kiwi to 0.6521 low. Thereafter, stuck in
this 0.6525-35.

Not an interesting session for Australian dollar no

impact from the Chinese inflation and PPI.

The big hoo-ha this morning was in the funding swap

which has risen since Nov 4. Jpy basis swap recovered
off the low -73 to -67.75 late morning. According to one
real money account, the move last week isnt a surprise
given the labour report and year-end funding needs.
Furthermore, banks are taking on less risk.
UsdJpy moved up at the Tokyo fix but no follow through.
Offers remained at 123.35 and 123.50. Fresh buy orders
are rumoured to be at 122.80-90.
UsdCad ended Toronto at 1.3288 and we saw one Aussie
bank pushing this pair, linked to NzdCad. Oil futures

Bank Indonesia: Near term rate cut policy is

unlikely
Bank Indonesia: Keeps stability over growth
policy
Bank Indonesia: Remains cautious, considers
medium-term condition
Moodys: China GDP growth just under 7% in
2015
Moodys: Sees China GDP at 6.3% in 2016, 6.1%
in 2017
China Vice Finance Minister Zhu: Confident to
reach growth target of about 7%
PBOC Zhou: China to further open capital
markets, raising and then gradually abolishing
domestic quotas
PBOC Zhou: To lower threshold for private
capital to enter banking sector
PBOC Zhou: China to foster central bank
interest rate mechanisms to deliver policy
intentions
PBOC Zhou: Beijing to improve economic policy
coordination focussing on fiscal and monetary
policies
Japan Abe: Will push on to achieve Japan
primary balance surplus

South Korea Oct Import Price Index M/M fell

3% from -0.5%
South Korea Oct Import Price Index Y/Y fell
14.8% from -13.0%
South Korea Oct Export Price Index M/M fells
3.5% from -0.6%
South Korea Oct Export Price Index Y/Y fell
6.2% from -1.9%
Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer
Confidence Index rose to 116.6 from 115.2
Japan Sept BOP Current Account Balance
Jpy1.468trln from Jpy1.653trln
Japan Sept BOP Current Account Adjusted
narrowed to Jpy776.2bn from Jpy1.59trln
Japan Sept Trade Balance BOP Basis Jpy82.3bn
from Jpy326.1bn
Australia Oct NAB Business Conditions
unchanged at 9
Australia Oct NAB Business Confidence at 2
from 5

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

Australia Sept Home Loans M/M up 2% from

+2.9%
Australia Sept Investment Lending fell 8.5%
from -0.4%
China Oct CPI Y/Y rose 1.3% from 1.6% (est.
1.5%)
China Oct PPI Y/Y unchanged -5.9%

WSJ: Portugal Goes to Greece?

Portuguese politics could tip into disarray Tuesday if a
coalition of left-wing parties pledging a Keynesian
spending spree unseats the center-right government. If
you thought this years Greek crisis was entertaining, you
might be in for a rerun. Left Bloc and Communist
parties, which between them control 34 seats, have
sniffed an opportunity, as have some members on the
leftward end of the Socialist party, the main opposition
bloc. Socialist leader Antonio Costa, who had previously
ruled out such a coalition, relented this weekend and
now is expected to join a no-confidence vote Tuesday to
unseat PM Coelho.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/portugal-goes-to-greece1447117080?mod=wsj_nview_latest
WSJ: Hedge Funds Load Up on Sugar
Suddenly, investors again see opportunity in sugar. Rawsugar futures prices are up 39% since Aug. 24, the
markets largest gain since 2011 and a rare increase amid
a deepening commodity bust. Futures-trading volume
set a record in September, and bullish bets by money
managers this month hit a two-year high, according to
Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
Investment firms Tudor Investment Corp. and D.E.
Shaw & Co. are among hedge funds plying the sugar
trade, after Wall Street largely gave this $18 billion
market up for dead during a yearslong price decline.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/hedge-funds-load-up-onsugar-1447114535?mod=e2tw
FT: Greece stand-off with EU lenders delays
2bn bailout payment
Greece and its European creditors have run into a
dispute over Athens new 86bn bailout , forcing a delay
in a 2bn aid payment and raising questions over
whether the government is returning to the
brinkmanship tactics that embittered relations with
Brussels earlier this year. Eurozone finance ministers
were scheduled to sign off the 2bn tranche at a Monday
evening meeting in Brussels, but ministers said a standoff over repossession protections for homeowners would
delay the payment for at least a week, and potentially
longer.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/40882a5a-86ef-11e59f8c-a8d619fa707c.html#axzz3r2gne136

WSJ: Eurozone Finance Ministers Press Greece

to Move Forward With Overhauls
Eurozone finance ministers on Monday said Greece
needs to deliver on new foreclosure rules and other
promised overhauls within a week to get a delayed slice
of financial aid valued at 2bn. The ministers, at their
monthly meeting in Brussels, also urged Athens to
deliver swiftly on overhauls to its financial system,
including measures aimed at strengthening bank
governance, in order to proceed with the recapitalization
of its banks.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/eurozone-financeministers-wont-release-2-billion-loan-to-greece1447058298?mod=wsj_nview_latest
WSJ:
OPECs
Strategy
Seen
Potentially
Backfiring
International Energy Agency said OPECs unwillingness
to limit its oil output could help usher in a sustained
period of low prices and more pain for its members
budgets. The IEA made its comments in a summary of its
World Energy Outlook, said OPEC members including
Venezuela, Iran and Algeria are being badly pinched by
fallen oil prices and have agitated for production
cutbacks to push them back up.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/opecs-strategy-seenpotentially-backfiring-1447117201?
mod=wsj_nview_latest
FT: Cameron links EU membership to national
security
Downing Street for the first time linked membership of
the European Union to national security ahead of
Tuesdays unveiling of David Camerons four-point
reform plan intended to keep Britain in the EU.
Launching a month of frenetic European diplomacy, the
prime minister will insist his list of demands does not
amount to mission impossible, as he eyes a deal with
27 European member states within weeks.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c92bbeda-86fe-11e590de-f44762bf9896.html#axzz3r2gne136
Nikkei: Sukuk issues in Malaysia faces challenge
amid weak ringgit
Islamic bonds, or sukuk issuances in Malaysia in 2015
are likely to be about 20% lower than last year's as
expectations of higher interest rates in the U.S., a
battered ringgit and local political tumult have kept
many investors on the side lines. Uncertainty over
timing of a U.S. interest rate hike and ongoing political
jitters in Southeast Asia's third largest economy will
likely weigh on its financial markets, clouding prospects
of any brisk uptick in sukuk deals at least in the early
part of next year, analysts said.
http://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Currencies/Sukukissues-in-Malaysia-faces-challenge-amid-weak-ringgit

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

FT: Canadian Pacific makes second US rail play

in 13 months
Canadian Pacific Railway is in early stage talks with
Norfolk Southern, the number two network in the
eastern US, in its second effort in 13 months to gain scale
by taking over a US-based rival. CP had hired bankers
and was seeking financing for the transactions, those
informed about the talks said. Norfolk shares closed up
almost 11 per cent to $88.62 after Bloomberg News
reported the approach, giving the company a $23.85bn
market capitalisation. Shares in Toronto-listed CP closed
up 5.69 per cent to C$188.79. Two people familiar with
the matter said talks were at an early stage, but stressed
that a deal was not certain.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d90e6eaa-8718-11e59f8c-a8d619fa707c.html#axzz3r2gne136

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.