Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Ekawan
Rudianto
EMP
Contents
1. Coal as an energy
2. Reserves, Production, Consumption &
trade
3. Coal and environment
4. The future of coal
5. Coal in Indonesia
Coal as an energy
Energy consumption growth will
track economic growth
Coal as an energy
Important energy in
Revolution Industry
Until 1960s coal was
the most important
source
Late 1960s
overtaken by oil
Forecasted, coal
could become major
energy sources
COAL :
Reserves, Production and
Consumption and Market
Coal deposits
Reserves (Gt)
Resources abundance (6,000 Gt),
100 countries
70% North-equator (US, CIS,
China)
Reserves 984 Gt in 2003
Antracite & bituminous: 52%
Sub-bituminous : 28%
Lignite : 20%
190 years accessible reserves in
current production level
+ Exploration
+ Technologies
+ Economic
- Transport
- Qualities
- Deep mines
Sources : WCI,2001; BP-statistic,2003
Resources and
Reserve of Oil
Source : WCI,2006
Decline :
Western Europe
Poland
First players :
1. Oil company
(Exxon & Shell)
TOTAL
2. State owned
CdF, NCB
PT BA
Present : MNC (BHP, Anglo, Rio
Tinto, Glencore/Xstrata)
Consolidation process:
BHP-Billion (2001)
Bumi resources (2004)
Glencore/Xstrata (2003)
400 export mines,120 producers
10 biggest companies share 21%
production & 32% of world trade
International
trade (Mt)
Started in the middle 19th ;
expand 1979/80 (steam
increase ; coking stable)
Growth :
demand energy & raw mat
cover uneconomic mined
Supply
245 Mt
Colombia
222 Mt South Africa
Rusia
Poland
Venezuela
US etc
Supply
429 Mt
Australia
Indonesia
China
Rusia
Vietnam
55 Mt
Demand
397 Mt
Japan
374 Mt South Korea
Taiwan
India
China
etc
23 Mt
Price Formation
Market Leader
South Africa
Colombia
Russia
Marginal Supplier
Poland
US
Australia
Indonesia
FOB Prices
Freight Rates
Currency relations
Buyers market
Sellers market
Pacific (59% ; +)
Atlantic (41% ; -)
Diff. Consumers
Diff. Supplier
Market Leader
Australia
Indonesia
Marginal Supplier
South Africa
Russia
China
US
Coal Market
Coal Market
International trade
Players :
- dealers (active in early 80s ; no more)
- producers vs consumers (Glencore, Anglo, BHP..)
- champion (case : Sogo Shosho)
- trading house as agent for producers (active 00s ; RAG, RWE, EDF..)
Contract nature
-long-term
(T : < 10 yr ; Q : fixed ; P : yearly based on reference price; long-term relationship;
big supplier; JSM or Utilities base load or near-mine power plant)
-spot contract
(T & Q : ~ ; P : spot/Indexes ; liberalization electricity, excess supply & devlp. coal
chain; no permanent relationships & less security of supply; smaller supplier;
KEPCO, Taipower ; different reason between Atlantic (70%) & Pacific (30%+))
- tender
(bidding process ; deal through trader ; larger volume than spot ; multiple cargo for
several quarter ; big buyer/state owned ; high transaction cost ; no permanent
relationships ; Shenhua for KEPCO)
Coal Market
International trade
Price setting
-contract price
Relate to long-term transaction (tonnage; quality ; exchange rate ..) ; fixed price
for each current year ; settled directly buyer & seller
- spot price
Price (& Q) depends market situation ; reference : indexes globalCoal ; BJI ;
MCIS
- benchmark-price (only in Pacific)
Price settlement JSM vs Australias sellers as a basis for others electric utilities
-Future price
- offered by commodity markets for spot quantity; price agree in advance ; uses
index (that specify provenance, quality, place of delivery etc) PRB 8000, NYMEX
Coal Index ; Physical trade vs Coal derivatives (swaps, future, option)
60
55
$/tce
50
45
40
35
30
25
1Q1992 1Q1993 1Q1994 1Q1995 1Q1996 1Q1997 1Q1998 1Q1999 1Q2000 1Q2001 1Q2002
CWI
SACR
MCIS
EU-index
ICI-3
ICI-1
ICI-2
ICI Specification
ICI-1
ICI-2
ICI-3
6500
5800
5000
Sulfur content
Up to 1%
Up to 0,8%
Up to 0,6%
Ash
Up to 2%
Up to 10%
Up to 8%
Total moisture
Up to 12%
Up to 18%
Up to 30%
Basis
GAR
GAR
GAR
Size
Panamax
Panamax
Panamax
Timing
in 90 days
in 90 days
in 90 days
Prices
Prices of energy
product
Transport cost
Excess capacity
Others (congestion
etc)
Poland(96%), South
Africa (90%), China (81%),
India (75%), , USA(56%)
Coal utilisations(2)
electricity generation
Coal utilisation
Electricity : 73%
Steel : 12%
Cement et heating : 15%
Structure of electricity
production in Europe :
Nuclear : 35%
Coal : 30%
Natural gas : 13%
Oil : 7 %
others : 15 %
EU 15
Germany
France
Belgium
Italy
UK
Greece
Spain
Poland
Czech Republic
Hungary
Rumania
Bulgaria
10
Coal
20
30
Oil
40
Gas
50
60
Nuclear
70
80
90 100
Other (hydro)
Source:WCI,2001
Coke
Coking coal
Certain physical properties
low sulphur
low phosphorous
Cokefaction in coke oven
Size 3 mm
1200C
20 h
Volatile contents are driven
off as gas
Red-hot product is cooled
and screen (>30 mm) as
coke
Coke+limestone+iron ore are fed
to blast furnace to produce steel
Coal advantages
Within 20 years, coal prices
were slightly decline
technology
economic of scale
freight
Security of supply
No production
concentration
Safe to be transported
Source : WCI,2001;EIA,2002
Coal
&
Environment
- Surface
Ben eficiation
T ran sp ortation
Com bu stion
- By p rod u ct
- Em ission
Main Impacts
Subsiden ce
Gen eration of gases (m ainly CH 4)
Liqu id effluen t/Acid Mine Drainage
H yd rologic imp act
H ealth effect of m iner: resp iratory d iseases (e.q.
p n eu m ocon iosis or silicosis) cau sed by d u st
Surface d istu rban ce (e.q. ch an ged of n atu ral lan d su rface)
Liqu id efflu en t/Acid Mine Drainage
H yd rologic imp act
Solid waste
Water con tam ination from p rep aration p lan ts
Air con tam ination from p rep aration p lan ts
Refu se con tam ination from p rep aration p lan ts
Dep en d on typ es of tran sp ort, m ainly air p ollu tion (d u st), an d
su rface d istu rban ce
Fossil fu el com bu stion waste :
fly ash , bottom ash , boiler slag, Flue Gas Desu lph u ration
m aterial
Sulfu r Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Particu late m atter
Carbon m on oxide
T race elem en ts (p oten tially toxic):
ch rom ium , arsen ic, lead , cad m ium etc
Green h ou se Gases: i.e Carbon Dioxide
Environmental
Challenges
Technology Response
Status
Particu late
emission s
NOx emission
Technology
for reducing
emissions of
pollutants
SOx emission
Efficient
Combustion
Technologies
CO2 emission
Reduction
CO2
Emission
CO2 emission
Combu stion
waste
Tonnes of carbon
per GJ
Natural gas
0.61
0.0138
Crude oil
0.84
0.0190
Bituminous coals
1.09
0.0245
Antrachites
1.14
0.0155
Gasoline
0.80
0.0180
Kerosine
0.82
0.0185
Diesel/gas oil
0.84
0.019
Fuels oils
0.88
0.10
Oil Products
green house gases (CO2, NO2, CH4, SF6, PFCs, HFCs) are some gases
that are emitted from the burning and utilisations of fossil fuels, like coal,
oil, and natural gas
the scientists predict that the increasing quantity of GHG in the
atmosphere may produce a global warming phenomena
the Kyoto Protocols mechanisms :
Emission Trading
Joint Implementation
Clean Development Mechanism
CCT in Europe
Strategy I :
promote the
technology for the eco-friendly
combustion for reducing emissions
of dust, NOx and CO2
Strategy II : improvement of
power-station efficiency.
Exploitation :
Processing :
Reduce impurities (ash, sulphur,,)
Improve the quality of mine waste water
Combustion :
Improve recovery
Source : WCI,2001
USA : 35%
OECD : 38%
Chine : 28%
Source : WCI,2001
Post-combustion
Oxyfuel
hydrogen
Rotating absorber
Membranes contactor
Ocean storage
geological
Activity
CO2 capture
CO2 transportation
CO2 injection
Total
IN
THE
LONG
TERM
.
Coal in Future
Coal in Future
Drivers of growth :
Coal in Future
Coal in Future
15
27
23
18
39
26
43
98
29
19
28
Coal in Future
18
15
22
71
32
57
17
53
61
19
20
20
44
28
123
26
103
COAL IN INDONESIA
Indonesia
Coal Resources and Reserves
No
1
2
3
4
5
Island
Reserve
Java
Sumatra
Kalimantan
Sulawesi
Papua
2735,32
4246,24
0,06
6981,62
In Million tonnes
Measured
2755,38
9689,84
21,20
Resources
Indicated Inferred Hypothetic
14,65
20046,87
4555,13
34,34
486,69
19494,09
498,46
112,79
138,30
Total
14,65
27391,72
30169,08
133,99
138,30
57847,74
C
O
A
L
R
E
S
O
U
R
C
E
S
Indonesia
Coal Production & Consumption
Production
Consumption
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
140.00
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
19
million tonnes
INDONESIA
Korea
Japan
China
Taiwan
Hongkong
India
Thailand
Philipines
Malaysia
kilometers
2000
Australia