Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Heike Link
German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin
Wolfgang Gtze
University of Applied Sciences, Stralsund
Veli Himanen
Transplan Ltd., Helsinki
BACKGROUND
Charging for the use of infrastructure has become a central issue in European
transport policy. Several Green and White papers (EC 1995, EC 1998, EC
2001) have emphasised the importance of fair and efficient charging schemes
in order to curb congestion, to pay for external costs of transport and to
finance infrastructure. The EU charging policy has postulated the principle of
social marginal cost pricing as the leading principle for charging policies in the
member states. Implementing this principle requires empirical evidence on the
different cost components such as the marginal costs of infrastructure
maintenance, repair, renewal and operation, the marginal environmental and
accident costs and the marginal congestion costs. This paper is dedicated to
the question whether and to what extent marginal infrastructure costs of
airports, e. g. the marginal costs of maintaining, renewing and operating
airport infrastructure, play a significant role. It presents the results of an
econometric analysis based on cost and traffic data for the airport of Helsinki.
This analysis continues research originally performed as part of a series of
case studies on estimating social marginal transport costs within the EU
funded research project UNITE1 by using a refined methodological approach.
The majority of cost function studies in aviation has mainly been driven by
deregulation issues in the airline industry (Baltagi et al. 1995, Barla and
Perelman 1989, Caves et al. 1984, Caves et al. 1987, Encaoua 1991, Gillen
et al. 1990, Windle 1991). So far only a few studies have dealt with the costs
of airport infrastructure services (for example Doganis 1996, Morrison and
Winston 1989). The analysis summarised in this paper was aimed at closing
this gap. The studies mentioned above are based on the standard
formulations of cost function analysis which links total cost of production to
production output, production factors and input prices. In contrast to this, our
analysis focuses on labour costs as the dominant cost component for the case
study airport and analyses the relationship between labour costs and aircraft
movements in an hourly pattern.
This paper is organised as follows. Chapter 2 describes the characteristics of
the case study airport and the data. Chapter 3 presents the methodology
used. Chapter 4 discusses the estimation results and derives the marginal
costs. Chapter 5 concludes.
Association for European Transport 2004
Producer
Service
Category
AERONAUTICAL SERVICES
Terminal Air Traffic Control Services (pure infrastructure)
AL
AL
AL
IM
IM
IM
I
I
I
AL
AL
AL
OS
AL
IM
IM
IM
IM
IM
I
I
I
I
I
aircraft parking,
aircraft handling,
bus transportation,
environmental protection,
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
IM
IM
AL
IM
IM
IM
I
I
O
I
I
I
AP,AL,OC
AP
AP
AP,OC
AP
AP
IM
AL
IM,PS
IM
IM,AL
IM
I,C,O
I,O
P?
I,C,O
I
I
customs services.
AL,OE
AL,OE
AL,OE
AL,OE
AL,OE
AL,OE
AL,OE
PS
O
O
O
P?
hotels,
AP,OC
AP
AP,OC
AP,OC
AP,OC
AP,OC
IM,OE
IM,OE
OE
OE
OE
IM
C
C
C
C
C
C
AP,OC,OE
IM
AP,OC
AP,OC
AP,OC
IM,OE
OE
OE
I
O
C
NON-AERONAUTICAL SERVICES
Passenger services (partly infrastructure)
parking services,
car rental.
Cost categories
Air Traffic
Control
Services
Salaries
-6 345 322
Social
-1 738 025
Personnel
-8 083 347
Material
-153 239
Rents
-45 031
Municipal charges
-3 795
Repair/Maint.
-163 981
Other1)
-1 956 097
Non-personnel
-2 322 142
2)
Internal
-999 400
Total
-11 404 889
(%)
26
Manoeuvring Area
Services
Apron
Area
Services
Passenger Ground
Transport
Terminal
Services
Services Total
-3 173 599
-1 088 109
-4 261 708
-1 528 254
-116 357
-3 310 357
-480 435
-990 005
-6 425 408
-595 723
-11 282 839
25
-1 319 544
-424 641
-1 744 185
-238 446
2 169
-262 683
-556 044
-1 450 733
-2 505 737
-411 903
-4 661 824
11
-2 966 485
-1 092 429
-4 058 914
-345 905
-49 227
35
-4 149 302
-3 541 044
-8 085 536
-1 153 520
-13 297 970
30
-1 203 266
-327 992
-1 531 258
-171 312
-6 932
170
-405 882
-1 393 241
-1 977 197
-212 620
-3 721 075
8
The data used for our analysis refer exclusively to infrastructure services (see
the grey-shadowed areas in table 1). While transport operator services,
commercial services and public sector services and cargo services related to
non-aeronautical activities are excluded, services for freight flights on the
aeronautical side are included. Two types of data were obtained.
Type I data: Total costs per service category in 2000.
This data (shown in table 2) includes all costs of providing airport services
(including central administration staff) independent on the question whether
(%)
Type of
Personnel
Own
Outsourced
Total
Air Traffic
Control
Services
12
0
12
Apron
Passenger Ground
Manoeuvring Area
Terminal Transport
Area Services Services Services Services Total (%)
20
0
20
5
5
10
9
38
48
5
5
9
51 52
48 48
99 100
to the person-hours paid which embrace holidays, training, sick leaves and
other non-paid working time 2). Furthermore, in contrast to official transport
statistics transit passengers were counted only once since our analysis was
aimed at analysing the use of services by passengers.
Winter
Person- Aircraft
Passengers P-h/Am P-h/ Pass
hours
movements
2)
1)
Monday
7.2.2000
2 626
485
22 651
5,4
0,12
Tuesday
8.2.2000
2 525
515
25 386
4,9
0,10
Wednesday
9.2.2000
2 593
510
25 673
5,1
0,10
Thursday
10.2.2000
2 638
541
28 738
4,9
0,09
Friday
11.2.2000
2 672
525
30 386
5,1
0,09
Saturday
5.2.2000
2 203
356
21 155
6,2
0,10
Sunday
6.2.2000
2 398
347
26 000
6,9
0,09
2 522
468
25 713
5,5
0,10
Average
Summer Monday
29.5.2000
2 237
557
28 817
4,0
0,08
Tuesday
30.5.2000
2 253
546
29 116
4,1
0,08
Wednesday
31.5.2000
2 362
542
29 198
4,4
0,08
Thursday
1.6.2000
2 136
355
20 807
6,0
0,10
Friday
2.6.2000
2 235
379
20 594
5,9
0,11
Saturday
3.6.2000
1 934
345
23 660
5,6
0,08
28.5.2000
2 069
371
29 235
5,6
0,07
2 175
442
25 918
5,1
0,09
Sunday
Average
1)
2)
On average, 2522 person hours per day were scheduled in winter and 2 175
in summer (table 4). From this the yearly scheduled person-hours in HelsinkiVantaa airport can be estimated into 857 203. One aircraft movement needed
on average 5.3 person-hours varying from 4.0 to 6.9 during the sample
weeks. The corresponding average figure per passenger was 0.1 person-hour
varying from 0.07 to 0.12.
20
200
40
100
20
0
22:00
20:00
18:00
200
20
Time (h)
departing international flights
22:00
20:00
18:00
0
16:00
22:00
20:00
18:00
16:00
14:00
12:00
10:00
08:00
06:00
04:00
02:00
00:00
400
40
14:00
60
12:00
20
Time (h)
arriving international flights
total personal
departing passengers
arriving passengers
Number of passengers
600
80
10:00
40
800
100
08:00
10
60
1000
120
06:00
80
140
04:00
15
1200
02:00
100
arriving passengers
160
00:00
120
departing passengers
total personal
Number of personnel
20
25
140
Number of personnel
16:00
Time (h)
arriving domestic flights
160
total personal
14:00
00:00
Time (h)
departing domestic flights
total personal
Number of passengers
300
60
22:00
20:00
18:00
16:00
14:00
12:00
10:00
08:00
06:00
04:00
02:00
00:00
400
80
12:00
40
500
100
10:00
60
120
08:00
80
600
06:00
Number of personnel
100
140
04:00
12
120
700
02:00
140
160
Number of personnel
16
160
Aircraft movements
Passenger aircraft
movements
Arriving aircraft
Departing aircraft
International aircraft
Domestic aircraft
Domestic/ arriving aircraft
Domestic /departing aircraft
International/ arriving aircraft
International/ departing
aircraft
Passengers
Arriving domestic passengers
Departing domestic
passengers
Arriving international
passengers
Departing international
passengers
All
services
Traffic
Control
Services
Manoeuvring Area
Services
Apron
Passen- Ground
Area
ger
TransServices Services port
Services
0,80
0,81
0,71
0,70
0,26
0,28
0,75
0,73
0,77
0,78
0,66
0,67
0,62
0,76
0,77
0,68
0,60
0,54
0,47
0,73
0,58
0,64
0,70
0,58
0,51
0,46
0,49
0,62
0,20
0,24
0,17
0,31
0,28
0,23
0,08
0,18
0,63
0,66
0,69
0,66
0,62
0,49
0,47
0,62
0,56
0,77
0,75
0,65
0,56
0,53
0,40
0,75
0,68
0,47
0,68
0,49
0,44
0,38
0,71
0,42
0,69
0,61
0,47
0,56
0,52
0,38
0,15
0,29
0,23
0,59
0,60
0,37
0,69
0,57
0,44
0,61
0,40
0,43
0,21
0,17
-0,08
0,21
0,19
0,52
0,64
0,50
0,11
0,52
0,70
0,34
MODELLING ISSUES
additional aircrafts and passengers cause are close to zero and can be
neglected. The second reason lies in the nature of our data. We use data on
an hourly basis instead of cross-sectional data, e.g. we have to treat time
series data with a short-run time horizon of the observations. The data reflect
the fluctuations of aircraft and passenger movements and of scheduled staff
over the day. Initial multiple linear regression analysis performed in Himanen
et al. 2002 has shown that random shocks (for example delays) influence the
pattern significantly and cause autocorrelation problems in the residuals if not
treated properly. For these reasons we have chosen a multiple regression
model with an explicit modelling of correlated error terms.
The objective of our modelling work is to identify whether there exists a
significant relationship between the number of scheduled person-hours Y and
the traffic volume measured as aircraft movements M.3 Since the link between
traffic volume and the number of personnel may be influenced by season and
weekday/weekend, and in order to account for the inflexibility of working times
and contracts, we have constructed three further variables. The categorical
variable A indicates the influence of additional salaries to be paid for evening
and night work which might play a role for scheduling staff, the dummy
variable S reflects the seasonal influence of summer and winter and W is a
dummy variable representing the influence of weekends. The general model
to be estimated is
Yt = f (X t , A t , Wt , S t , t )
(1)
with
t : time, expressed in hours
: residuals of the regression model
f : unknown functional form.
In the initial analysis described in Himanen et al. 2002, equation (1) was
estimated as a linear regression model. This model provided a plausible
interpretation of the coefficients but faced the problem of autocorrelated
residuals. The analysis presented in this paper was therefore aimed at
supplementing the linear regression model with an appropriate model for the
error terms.
We describe here exemplified the residual modelling for the relationship
between the number of staff scheduled in the passenger service area and the
number of aircraft movements. The modelling started from visual inspection of
the sequential diagrams and the scatterplots (figures 2 and 3) which showed
first, a dominant day pattern and second, a linear relationship between the two
variables Y(t) and M(t). Cross correlation analysis4 rejected a delay between
aircraft movements and scheduled person hours. For analysing the residuals
we applied both the extended Dickey-Fuller test (see Dickey and Fuller 1979)
and the Phillips-Perron test (Phillips and Perron 1988). Both tests rejected the
existence of a unit root in the residuals5. It was therefore possible to model the
residuals by means of an AutoRegressive Moving Average Model ARMA(p, q)
Association for European Transport 2004
based on the Box-Jenkins technique (see Brockwell and Davis 2002). This
model type allows to treat the autocorrelation in the residuals by estimating
the parameter p which indicates the order of the correlated model errors and q
which represents the order of random shocks. For our airport data we can
interpret these random shocks as external events causing delays of departing
and/or arriving aircrafts. The remaining cyclical pattern in the residuals,
indicated by a peak at lag 8 in the correlogram, hinted at an influence of the
average shift of airport staff (8 hours). In order to consider this influence in
the model we have introduced a cyclical term (p8, q8)8. Here, p8 represents the
shift weights of the model errors, and q8 stands for the shift weights of the
random shocks.
Figures 2 Sequential diagram
Figure 3 Scatterplot
(2)
with
( t ) =
(1 + c1 B + c 2 B 2 )
(1 + d1 B + d 2 B 2 ) (1 + d 8 B 8 )
a (t ) .
B a ( t ) = a (t 1) ,
(3)
(t) denotes the errors of the regression model and a(t) denotes the random
shocks.
In order to identify parsimoneously specified models6 we used two information
criteria, the Akaike Information Criterion AIC and the Schwarz Bayesian
Criterion SBC:
L
k
+ 2
n
n
L
log(n )
SBC = 2 + k
,
n
n
AIC = 2
(4)
where L represents the value of the Log-Likelihood function, k stands for the
number of parameters estimated and n for the number of observations. All
estimations presented in this paper were conducted with the time series
package EViews.
4
ESTIMATION RESULTS
Dependent
variable
Independent variables
Staff in
Aircraft
service areas movements
(M)
1
All services
Air Traffic
Control
Manoeuvring
area
Apron area
3
4
5
6
1)
Passenger
services
Ground
transport
services
0,6003
(0,0687)
0,1385
(0,0289)
0,0536
(0,0120)
0,1647
(0,0456)
0,0361
(0,0113)
Salary
Weekendagreements Dummy (W)
(A)
-4,99
(0,52)
-2,89
(0,23)
2,76
(0,80)
Seasonal
Dummy
(S)
-3,35
(1,10)
-1,60
(0,25)
-12,54
(0,28)
-1,88
(0,06)
Constant
87,0
(2,3)
15,7
(1,1)
25,6
(0,2)
12,9
(0,4)
41,9
(1,4)
8,7
(0,3)
SARMA (p, q)
(p8, q8)8
(2, 1) (1, 0)8
(2, 1) (1, 0)8
(2, 1) (1, 0)8
(2, 2) (1, 0)8
(2, 2) (1, 0)8
(2, 2) (0, 0)8
For all service areas we have estimated a two hours term (p = 2) to account
for correlated model errors (table 6). The parameter q which represents the
Association for European Transport 2004
hours needed by the airport to proceed with random shocks (delays etc.)
varies across the service areas between 1 and 2 hours. Obviously, traffic
control and manoeuvring services need 1 hour to tackle with random shocks
while the influence of external random events lasts 2 hours in all other service
areas. The shift weights of the model errors were except for the ground
transport services identified as p8 = 1 . No shift weights for the random shocks
could be identified. A seasonal influence was only estimated for the
manoeuvring and the apron area where winter maintenance plays an
important role. Salary agreements have a significant influence on the number
of scheduled person hours in air traffic control, apron area and in the
passenger services. A weekend influence was only identified for the air traffic
control staff and for the apron area staff.
The manoeuvring area was the only category where no significant influence of
aircraft movements on the number of scheduled person hours was estimated.
An explanation for this is the fact that these services are rather general and
have to be provided independent of traffic volume (maintenance of runways,
cleaning, guidance systems, environmental protection, security and fire
services).
The model offers a plausible interpretation. Overall, increases in the number
of aircraft movements per hour require about 0.6 person hours from the airport
staff. The influence of salary arrangements is reflected in 2 which indicates
that the airport authority as far as possible attempts to schedule the number of
personnel in a cost-minimising way, e. g. avoiding additional salaries for
overtime and night work. The seasonal dummy variable has a negative sign,
e. g. during summer more personnel is scheduled than in winter. The same is
true for the weekend where more staff is scheduled.
AR(1)
AR(2)
SAR(1)
MA(1)
1,902
(0,014)
Air Traffic
-0,235
Control
(0,040)
Manoeuvring 1,737
area
(0,044)
Apron area
1,803
(0,033)
Passenger
1,899
services
(0,014)
Ground
1,837
transport
(0,034)
-0,971
(0,014)
0,757
(0,038)
-0,795
(0,037)
-0,871
(0,033)
-0,969
(0,014)
-0,897
(0,031)
0,209
0,055
-0,239
(0,057)
-0,382
(0,052)
0,431
(0,054)
0,239
0,055
-0,787
(0,039)
0,954
(0,024)
-0,904
(0,047)
-1,161
(0,069)
-0,599
(0,054)
-0,933
(0,067)
MA(2)
Staff in
service
areas
1
2
3
4
5
6
1)
All services
2)
0,165
(0,068)
-0,387
(0,054)
0,142
(0,064)
R
(%)
DurbinWatsonStatistics
96,29
1,857
Increase of
R2 (%) due
to explicit
modelling of
2)
residuals
6,45
87,71
1,968
15,61
93,46
2,035
9,30
90,90
2,002
12,25
95,50
2,019
12,32
86,69
2,006
96,45
Standard error in brackets.- Compared to the results reported in Himanen et al. 2002.
The linear structure of the model allows a simple calculation of marginal costs:
MC t =
Yt
= b1 AC t
M t
(5)
where AC is the average staff costs. This information can be obtained from
table 2 and is estimated to 37.7 per hour, a value which, however, includes
also non-personnel costs. Consequently, the marginal costs of an extra
aircraft movement amount to 22.6. This result lies in the same magnitude
like earlier findings for U.S. airports. Morrison and Winston 1989 report for
maintenance, operation and administration of US airports marginal cost
estimates of $ 22.09 per aircraft movement. If this figure is inflated to 2000
dollars and adjusted to Euros, an estimate of 32.97 per aircraft movement
is obtained.
5 CONCLUSIONS
This paper has presented an approach to analyse the relationship between
airport staff costs and aircraft movements in an hourly pattern and to derive
marginal costs as a relevant information for setting airport user charges. It
provides a tool suitable to investigate data with an hourly disaggregation
where random shocks such a delays of arriving and/or departing aircrafts, the
influence of shift cycles, salary agreements for evening and night work and
other factors play a role. Compared to the simple linear regression models
estimated in the original work in Himanen et al. 2002, the miss-specification
(problem of autocorrelated residuals) has been eliminated and the explanatory
power has improved considerably. The models estimated are based on the
principle of parsimony and offer a plausible interpretation of the parameters.
volume between 3 and 10 million passengers unit costs seem to decrease not
much. For airports with more than 10 million passengers no information is
available. These figures indicate that our results seem to be relevant for most
airports except the smallest ones and the largest ones. Another important
factor is the share of international passengers. They require more services
than domestic ones and are, therefore, more expensive. Any airport with a
higher share of international passengers than our case study airport Helsinki
would need more staff, and vice versa. Furthermore, differences may arise on
the scope of outsourcing. When comparing our results with those for other
airports it has to be borne in mind that the person-hours used in our analysis
include all outsourced activities.
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Association for European Transport 2004
NOTES
1) The UNITE project (UNIfication of accounts and marginal costs for
Transport Efficiency) was dedicated to estimate total and marginal
costs for all types of costs and all modes of transport and to analyse
the welfare impacts of different charging policies. All project reports can
be found under http://www.its.leeds.ac.uk/projects/unite/.
2) The ideal measure would be person-hours worked since this indicates
best the actual resources used.
3) Meanwhile there are also studies using a Box-Cox function approach
(for example de Borger 1992, Gaudry and Quinet 2003).
4) In this paper we present the analysis for aircraft movements as
explanatory variable. However, we have also estimated a second
series of models with the number of passengers.
5) The cross correlogram analysis is a graphical technique to identify
visually time lags between the two variables. We could not observe any
cut at the first values of the cross correlogram and rejected a time
delay between the two variables. This supports our assumption that the
number of scheduled person-hours is a planning figure which follows
directly the aircraft movements.
6) Testing for unit roots in the residuals seeks to identify whether the time
series is a stationary process. Instationarity would indicate that the
residuals include for example a trend component. This would require a
different modeling approach than the one we used in this paper.
7) The principle of parsimony denotes that everything else being equal,
simpler models with fewer parameters are better. It has been found to
be very effective when choosing between models with approximately
the same explanatory power, or conversely the same model error.