Philip S. Lowell, P.E., Ph.D.

James L. Machin, P.E.

 Some say anthropogenic CO2 will disastrously
warm the earth.
 Some say it will have little effect.
 Who is more likely correct? We will examine
three types of information:
 Geologic Record
 Radiation
 Computer Simulations
 Antarctic ice core (Vostok) data
 North American ice sheet (glacier) coverage
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/images/Vostok.jpg
 18,000 YR. AGO (GLACIERS = 14,000 YR. AGO (WATER =
PALE) DARK)

http://www.museum.state.il.us/exhibits/larson/glacier_maps.html
12,000 YR. AGO 10,000 YR. AGO
8,000 YR. AGO
Warming over last
18,000 years coincides
with Vostok data.

Rate of retreat ~1,400

miles in 10,000 yr, or
740 ft/yr.

Thickness decreased
from 2 mi -> 0 over
10,000 yr, or ~1 ft/yr.
 100,000-yr periods of rapid warming followed by
slow cooling over last 400,000 years
 Time increment for climate change is not years
or decades, but centuries or millennia
 Temperature, CO2, and methane all correlated,
with temperature leading by about 800 years
 CO2 levels higher now than ever
 Glacial retreat ~740 ft/yr
 Juneau Icefield Research Program: 5 glaciers
retreated an average of 60 ft/yr 1946-2005. Less
than historical rate
 What is radiation range of interest?
 Planck’s Radiation Law: black body radiator.
Infrared (IR) is primary range radiated
 What is not reflected is absorbed or
transmitted
 CO2 infrared (IR) spectrum
 Water vapor transmission spectrum
 Incident solar IR radiation absorbed by upper
atmosphere
 4 .10
5

 cm , TKC ( 40⋅ C)  Effective Range: 300-3500

Radiation Flux, W/sq m cm

flλ   3 .10
5
Radiant flux, W/sq m cm

 wN 
W
2
m cm
2 .10
5
 cm , TKC ( − 25⋅ C) 
flλ 
wN

 
W
1 .10
5
2
m cm

0
3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
wN
Wave number, 1/cm
40 C
-25 C
 “Inband” “Inband”
frequencies frequencies

Virtually 100%
These peaks fall
(none absorbed)
mostly outside the
300-3500 range.

Virtually 0 (all
absorbed)
 CO2, ppm Percent of IR Percent Increase
Absorbed in over 350 ppm
Effective Range
Angle from Vertical: 0o 60o 89o 0o 60o 89o

350 89.4 96.2 99.99 0 0 0

450 92.4 97.7 100.0 3.4 1.5 0.01

700 96.3 99.2 100.0 7.7 3.1 0.01

 Never reaches 100%
(absorption varies)

These peaks fall

mostly outside the
300-3500 range.
 Almost all incident radiant energy will be
“upwelled” from the earth as either heat in
vaporized water or IR radiation
 Radiation from the oceans is emitted at
frequencies “tuned to” absorption by water
vapor
 Increasing temperature of the oceans
increases atmospheric water vapor
concentration in contact with it (positive
feedback loop)
 Doubling CO2 from 350 to 700 ppm only causes
3.1% increase in energy absorption from CO2,
which is a small portion of the total energy
absorbed
 Increase in IR absorbed by CO2 decreases with
increased CO2 concentration
 Water vapor is the major greenhouse gas
 Anything, not just CO2, that causes an increase
in water vapor by an increase in temperature will
increase GHGs (feedback loop)
 Prediction of CO2-caused warming based
solely on computer simulations
 Significant uncertainties
 Upwelling air convection currents
 Ocean currents
 Clouds, and weather in general
 Simulations better suited to sensitivity than
predictions
 None has been verified against the Vostok
data
 Geologic data indicate natural cooling or
warming and that centuries or millennia are
the proper time scale.
 Vostok cores indicate that warming preceded
CO2 rise by ~800 years.
 Since the atmosphere is almost “saturated”
with respect to IR energy absorption by
CO2,increases in CO2 will have a small effect.
 Water vapor is the major greenhouse gas.
 Computer simulations, the basis of global
warming predictions, have not been verified
against the Vostok data.