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2008 INFOCOMM TECHNOLOGY TRENDS About iN2015 1.

Intelligent Nation 2015 (iN2015)


is Singapore’s 10-year masterplan to help us realise the potential of infocomm
over the next decade. Led by the Infocomm Development Authority of Singapore (ID
A), iN2015 is a multi-agency effort that is the result of private, public and pe
ople sector co-creation. Technology Trends observed by iN2015 2. The iN2015 Comm
ittee made a number of assumptions about technology developments and based their
forecast of future ICT trends on the following trend laws summarized below. ICT
Trend Laws Definition 1 2 3 4 5 Moore s Law Disk Law Fibre Law Metcalfe s Law C
omputing Power doubles every 18-24 months Storage doubles every 12 months Commun
ications doubles every 9 months Value of a network increases by the square of no
. of devices connected to it
Community Law Content increases by 2x , with x being the number of people
3. According to these laws, IDA visualizes that there will be 3 infocomm revolut
ions, namely (i)Communications, (ii)Computing and (iii)Sentient waves. They also
believe that each will play a critical role in realizing iN2015.1 1Source: iN20
15 Main Report pages 43-45
Technology trends on the Local Scale 4. From broadband to the home to broadband
to the person. It is now technologically possible for an individual to experienc
e true broadband connectivity in parks and even on public transports. Example 1
- A first in Singapore and Asia Pacific, Nokia Wifi Zone provides free internet
surfing on 12 SBS buses with high-speed broadband wireless internet connection a
re now trawling our streets. Example 2 – The 2 in Singapore, with at least one c
omputer at home has reached 79% in 2007. In the most recent iN2015 update, IDA a
lso reports that 92 per cent of homes with school-going children own computers i
n 2007.
Example 3 – In a June 08 Gartner report, Singapore was reported to be tops in As
ia-Pac PC penetration by 2012 with a penetration rate of 948 PCs to every 1000 p
eople using it for mobile applications, communication, accessing the Internet an
d posting user-generated content. In addition to that, the report estimates that
total number of PCs in use worldwide has exceeded one billion and should hit th
e two billion mark by 2014. Example 4 – In the recently released IDA telecomms s
tatistics, mobile phone penetration is at 130.6 per cent in April 2008. 3G subsc
riptions have reached about 1.99 million in April 2008.
2 Source: http://www.ida.gov.sg/doc/Publications/Publications_Level2/20061205092
557/ASInfocommUsageHseholds07.pdf
3 G M o b ile S u b s c r ip tio n s , 2 0 0 5 -2 0 0 8 N u m b e r o f S u b s
c r ip tio n s 2 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0 2 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 1 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0 1 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 5
0 0 ,0 0 0 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
08
Year
5. From entry-level(1Mbps) broadband to real(10Mbps) broadband As applications g
et more sophisticated and consumers expectations grow, 1Mpbs will no longer be
sufficient. Example 1 – Peer to Peer (P2P) applications like Bit-Torrent and oth
er sharing networks are highly popular with internet users. Large files like mov
ies, isoimages, TV shows are shared via P2P. These file-sharing applications rep
resent 44% of all bandwidth consumed on networks operated by North American Inte
rnet service providers, up from around 41% a year ago, according to a survey by
Sandvine, a vendor of bandwidth-management systems. Example 2 - Infocomm is incr
easingly pervasive in our lives. Infocomm usage in Singapore is reaching new hei
ghts. As of April 2008, 82.5 per cent of homes in Singapore are using broadband.
3
3 http://www.ida.gov.sg/doc/News%20and%20Events/News_and_Events_Level2/200806171
52602/FS10YearMasterp lan.pdf
G r o w th R a te o f R e s id e n tia l B r o a d b a n d S u b s c r ip tio n
s , 4 Q 0 5 1 Q 0 8 , Q u a r t e r ly 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -4 0 -6 0 % %
% % % % % % %
> 10 M bps > 2 M b p s to 1 0 M bps > 5 1 2 K b p s to 2 M bps 2 5 6 to 5 1 2 K
b p s (in c lu s ive )
G ro w th R a te
4Q05
2Q06
4Q 06
2Q 07
4Q 07
Q u a rte r
Illustration 1: IDA Telecom Statistics May 2008
R e s id e n t ia l B r o a d b a n d b y S p e e d s
T h o u sa n d s 1 0 0 0 .0 0 9 0 0 .0 0 N u m b e r o f S u b s c rip tio n s 8
0 0 .0 0 7 0 0 .0 0 6 0 0 .0 0 5 0 0 .0 0 4 0 0 .0 0 3 0 0 .0 0 2 0 0 .0 0 1 0
0 .0 0 0 .0 0 3Q 05 1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08
> 10 M bps > 2 M b p s to 1 0 M bps > 5 1 2 K b p s to 2 M bps 2 5 6 to 5 1 2 K
b p s ( i n c lu s i v e )
Q u a rte r
Illustration 2: IDA Telecom Statistics May 2008
6. From static content to rich, immersive and dynamic content Computer games hav
e already morphed from single player, standalone console games to multimedia onl
ine versions involving thousands of players. Next generation game consoles are d
esigned to be connected to the internet. There will also be a proliferation of i
nteractive devices and methods where consumers interact on a wholly immersive le
vel.
Example 1 – Interactive Digital Media(IDM). Announced in iN2015 as one of the ke
y economic sectors to transform our ICT landscape, the push for IDM can be seen
by the newly setup multi-agency Interactive Digital Media Research and Developme
nt (IDM R&D) Programme Office. Hosted by the Media Development Authority of Sing
apore (MDA) it has put in place the foundation pieces to build an eco-system in
the Interactive Digital Media (IDM) sector by strengthening the interlocking eff
orts of four key groups of stakeholders over the past year - individuals, indust
ry, schools and research institutions. Example 2 – Rich internet application tec
hniques such as AJAX, Silverlight, Adobe Flash, Flex and Java have matured to th
e potential to improve the user experience in browser-based applications. These
technologies allow a webpage to request an update for some part of its content,
and to alter that part in the browser, without needing to refresh the whole page
at the same time. This results in a richer and more responsive internet experie
nce. Pitfalls to watch out for : Moral hazards like gambling and pornography wil
l also hop on the bandwagon and become more widespread. 7. From information pull
to information push. The internet has transformed the world from where informat
ion was scarce to where there is an onslaught of information. Over the years, th
is trend has evolved to a trend commonly known as Web 2.0. It is a term describi
ng the trend in the use of World Wide Web technology and web design that aims to
enhance creativity, information sharing, and, most notably, collaboration among
users. Web 2.0 trends are the main drivers of information push. Example 1 – As
Web 2.0 technologies like RSS and Atom feeds, Mashups, Web services and widgets
makes accessing information easier, users now have the potential to personalize
and sieve out individual preferences, getting only the queries which are pertine
nt at hand. Emerging Trends & Technologies not covered by iN2015 8. Environmenta
l Trends : Green IT This is a fairly new trend that has caught on this year. Wit
h the increased awareness of the environmental value of IT, “reducing the carbon
footprint” has become the buzzword of enterprises. According to Gartner report
- “The recent rise of the green issue — the push for addressing human-driven gre
enhouse-gasbased climate change — is playing out in a similar way. Those organiz
ations with strong brands are helping to forge the first wave of green sourcing
policies and initiatives. These policies go well beyond minimizing direct carbon
emissions or requiring suppliers to comply with local environmental
regulations.”4 This means that organizations and vendors are factoring in the en
vironmental factors when purchasing that next Data Center, the next batch of lap
tops, etc. Emerging Trend 1 – “How Green Data Centers Save Money” Until recently
, the environmental impact of the data center was largely ignored. But today, re
search company IDC (a sister company to CIO’s publisher) estimates that companie
s spent $26.1 billion to power and cool servers worldwide in 2005. Benefits of a
green data center changes go beyond saving money or saving the planet. Server s
tandardization has made maintenance and upgrades easier. It’s also made IT more
responsive to business needs. Emerging Trend 2 - Gartner reports that within the
next five years, information will be presented via new user interfaces such as
organic lightemitting displays, digital paper and billboards, holographic and 3D
imaging and smart fabric.5 Gartner also predicts that by 2010, 75% of organizat
ions will use
full life cycle energy and CO2 footprint as mandatory PC hardware buying criteri
a6.
9. Innovation of ICT : Cloud Computing Cloud computing, once a concept as murky
as its name suggests, is becoming a legitimate emerging technology and piquing t
he interest of forward-looking CIOs. Out-of-control costs for power, personnel a
nd hardware, limited space in data centers, and above all, a desire to simplify,
have encouraged significant numbers of startups—and a still small number of ent
erprises—to move more infrastructure into a third-party provided cloud. Amazon’s
EC2 service and Google’s Google App Engine are examples of cloud computing. Gar
tner defines cloud computing as a style of computing where massively scalable IT
-related capabilities are provided “as a service” using Internet technologies to
multiple external customers.7 Essentially it will mean that users of IT-related
services will be able to focus on what the service provides them rather than ho
w the services are implemented or hosted. Gartner maintains that although names
for this type of operation have come into vogue at different times — utility com
puting, software as a service (SaaS) and application service providers — none ha
s garnered widespread acceptance as the central theme for how IT-related service
s can be delivered globally. The types of IT services that can be provided throu
gh a cloud are wide-reaching. Compute facilities provide computational services
so that users can use central processing unit (CPU) cycles without buying comput
ers. Storage services provide a way to store data and documents without having t
o continually grow farms of storage networks and servers. SaaS companies offer C
RM services through their multitenant
4 5 6 7 Pg 19, Report ID: G00154035 - “Garter Top Predicts 2008 and Beyond Going
Green” http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=681107 Pg 3, Report ID: G00154035
- “Garter Top Predicts 2008 and Beyond Going Green” http://www.gartner.com/it/pa
ge.jsp?id=707508
shared facilities so clients can manage their customers without buying software.
These represent only the beginning of options for delivering all kinds of compl
ex capabilities to both businesses and individuals. Gartner maintains that cloud
computing is very much an evolving concept that will take many years to fully m
ature.
Spending trends8 10. This section outlines Singapore s ICT spending trends for t
he years 2003 to 2007 and is collated by IDA along with Department of Statistics
to determine the market performance of ICT sector for 2007. 11. Overall Perform
ance. The infocomm industry revenue grew by 13.8% to reach $51.68 billion in 200
7, from $45.42 billion in 2006. As in previous years, the Hardware segment conti
nued to contribute more than half of the industry revenue; the Hardware segment
share of industry revenue was 55%. The fastest growing segment was the IT Servic
es segment, which grew by 40.6% in 2007.
12. Domestic Market. Domestic revenue grew by 10.3% to reach $18.13 billion in 2
007, from $16.44 billion in 2006. The top two performers, the IT Services and Ha
rdware segments, saw growth rates of 51.9% and 25.5% respectively. 13. Export Ma
rket.Export revenue, the main contributor to the infocomm industry revenue (with
a share of 65%), grew by 15.8% to achieve $33.56 billion, from $28.98 billion i
n 2006. The top two contributors, the Hardware and Software segments, saw growth
rates of 15.9% and 11.4% respectively. 14. Export Destinations. North Asia rema
ined the top export destination overall, with a share of 22% of the export reven
ue. Additional Sources of Reading 1. Gartner Top 10 disruptive technologies 2008
-2012 2. Gartner predicts 2008 and beyond 3. Gartner Top Industry Predicts
8 IDA Annual Survey on Infocomm Industry for 2007