Math T Assignment

Introduction
Probability distribution is a statistical function that describes all the possible values and
likelihoods that a random variable can take within a given range. This range will be between the
minimum and maximum statistically possible values, but where the possible value is likely to be
plotted on the probability distribution depends on a number of factors, including the distributions
mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis. There are many different classifications of
probability distributions, including the Poisson, normal and binomial distributions.
In probability theory, the normal (or Gaussian) distribution is a very common continuous
probability distribution. Normal distributions are important in statistics and are often used in
the natural and social sciences to represent real-valued random variables whose distributions are
not known. The normal distribution is sometimes informally called the bell curve. In probability
theory and statistics, the binomial distribution with parameters n and p is the discrete probability
distribution of the number of successes in a sequence of n independent yes/no experiments, each
of which yields success with probability p. The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability
distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed
interval of time and/or space if these events occur with a known average rate and independently
of the time since the last event.
In this coursework, the probability of a random variable with specific parameters are
determined by using binomial distribution, Poisson distribution and normal distribution. The
probability distribution are illustrated graphically. The comparisons between the probability
distributions are also made. The impact on the shapes of the graphs by the probability and sample
size is investigated.
Methodology
Binomial distribution may be approximated,under certain circumstances,by Poisson
distribution or normal distribution.By considering a random variable having binomial
distribution,let p=0.05 and n=5,manual calculation is used to obtain probability using binomial
x
nx
distribution,Poisson distribution and normal distribution.Formula nCx p ( 1 p)
is used
to calculate the binomial distribution probabilities, probabilities of Poisson distribution is
obtained by using formula
e ( )
x!
and normal distribution with formula
, where n
is the sample size, x=0,1,2 n, =mean , =mean and =standard deviation. Continuity
correction is carried out by finding the probability between (x-0.5) and (x+0.5) for normal
distribution when it is used to estimate the probability of a discrete random variable since it is a
continuous random variable.These steps are repeated for n=10, 20 and p=0.1, 0.5 but the
calculation is done by using Microsoft Office Excel 2007.The results are tabulated.
The probability distributions are illustrated graphically.27 different graphs are plotted by using
Microsoft Office Excel 2007.Column graph is used for binomial distribution and Poisson
distribution while scatter graph for normal distribution.
Three graphs for normal distribution of different sample size,n=5,10 and 20 but same
probability, that is p=0.05 are combined into one graph.The shapes of distribution are compared
and the findings are discussed. The steps is repeated for p=0.1 and p=0.5. The changes in the
shapes of distribution of the graph are investigated as n increases.
X
Binomial distibution
0
0.7738
1
0.2036
2
0.02143
3
0.001128
4
0.00002969
5
0.0000003125
Probability distribution for p=0.05
Poisson distribution
0.7788
0.1947
0.02434
0.002028
0.0001268
0.000006338
n=5,
Graphs:
Binomial Distribution
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
Probability 0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
3
X
Normal distribution
0.6341
0.2988
0.00516
0
0
0
Poisson Distribution
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
Probability 0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
Normal Distribution
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Probability 0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
0.5
1.5
2.5
X
3.5
4.5
n=10,
X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Binomial distibution
0.598737
0.315125
0.074635
0.010475
0.000965
6.09E-05
2.67E-06
8.04E-08
1.59E-09
1.86E-11
9.77E-14
0.606531
0.303265
0.075816
0.012636
0.00158
0.000158
1.32E-05
9.4E-07
5.88E-08
3.26E-09
1.63E-10
Normal distribution
0.426603456
0.426603456
0.071542
0.001848
6.71548E-06
3.24E-09
2.01E-13
0
0
0
0
Graphs:
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Probability 0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
5
X
10
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Probability 0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
10
Normal Distribution
0.5
0.4
0.3
Probability 0.2
0.1
0
0
5
X
10
n=20,
X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Binomial distribution
0.358486
0.377354
0.188677
0.059582
0.013328
0.002245
0.000295
3.11E-05
2.66E-06
1.87E-07
1.08E-08
5.17E-10
2.04E-11
6.61E-13
1.74E-14
3.66E-16
6.02E-18
7.46E-20
6.54E-22
3.62E-24
9.54E-27
0.367879441
0.367879441
0.183939721
0.06131324
0.01532831
0.003065662
0.000510944
7.2992E-05
9.12399E-06
1.01378E-06
1.01378E-07
9.21616E-09
7.68013E-10
5.90779E-11
4.21985E-12
2.81323E-13
0
0
0
0
0
Normal distribution
0.242073334
0.392041108
0.242073334
0.056746517
0.004994841
0.000162806
1.93919E-06
8.34851E-09
1.29E-11
7.11E-15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Graphs:
Binomial Disrtibution
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
Probability
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920
X
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
Probability
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920
X
Normal Distribution
0.5
0.4
0.3
Probability 0.2
0.1
0
0
10
X
12
14
16
18
20

n=5,
X
0
1
2
3
4
5
0.59049
0.32805
0.0729
0.0081
0.00045
0.00001
0.60653066
0.30326533
0.075816332
0.012636055
0.001579507
0.000157951
Normal distribution
0.431981436
0.431981436
0.066584008
0.001430684
3.87087E-06
1.24E-09
Graphs:
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Probability 0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
3
X
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Probability 0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
Normal Distribution
0.5
0.4
0.3
Probability 0.2
0.1
0
0
0.5
1.5
2.5
X
3.5
4.5
n=10,
X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.348678
0.38742
0.19371
0.057396
0.01116
0.001488
0.000138
8.75E-06
3.65E-07
9E-09
1E-10
0.367879441
0.367879441
0.183939721
0.06131324
0.01532831
0.003065662
0.000510944
7.2992E-05
9.12399E-06
1.01378E-06
1.01378E-07
Normal distribution
0.242157577
0.401838547
0.242157577
0.052719152
0.004091572
0.000111375
1.04735E-06
3.36E-09
3.65E-12
1.33E-15
0
Graphs:
0.5
0.4
0.3
Probability 0.2
0.1
0
0
5
X
10
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
Probability
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0
10
Normal Distribution
0.5
0.4
0.3
Probability 0.2
0.1
0
0
5
X
10
n=20,
X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
0.121577
0.27017
0.28518
0.19012
0.089779
0.031921
0.008867
0.00197
0.000356
5.27E-05
6.44E-06
6.51E-07
5.42E-08
3.71E-09
2.06E-10
9.15E-12
3.18E-13
8.31E-15
1.54E-16
1.8E-18
1E-20
0.135335283
0.270670566
0.270670566
0.180447044
0.090223522
0.036089409
0.012029803
0.003437087
0.000859272
0.000190949
3.81899E-05
6.94361E-06
1.15727E-06
1.78041E-07
2.54345E-08
3.39126E-09
4.23908E-10
4.98715E-11
5.54128E-12
5.83292E-13
5.83292E-14
Normal distribution
0.100572529
0.222917819
0.290611885
0.222917819
0.100572529
0.026659976
0.004145619
0.000377409
2.00723E-05
6.22309E-07
1.12E-08
1.18E-10
7.14E-13
2.55E-15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Graphs:
0.3
0.25
0.2
Probability
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920
X
0.3
0.25
0.2
Probability
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920
X
Normal Distribution
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
Probability 0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0
10
X
12
14
16
18
20

n=5
X
0
1
2
3
4
5
Normal distribution
0.03125
0.15625
0.3125
0.3125
0.15625
0.03125
0.082085
0.205212
0.256516
0.213763
0.133602
0.066801
0.033174
0.148728
0.314453
0.314453
0.148728
0.033174
Graphs:
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
Probability 0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0
3
X
0.3
0.25
0.2
Probability
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0
Normal Distribution
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
Probability 0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.5
1.5
2.5
X
3.5
4.5
n=10,
X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Normal distribution
0.000977
0.009766
0.043945
0.117188
0.205078
0.246094
0.205078
0.117188
0.043945
0.009766
0.000977
0.006738
0.03369
0.084224
0.140374
0.175467
0.175467
0.146223
0.104445
0.065278
0.036266
0.018133
0.001961
0.011215
0.043495
0.114468
0.204524
0.24817
0.204524
0.114468
0.043495
0.011215
0.001961
Graphs:
0.3
0.25
0.2
Probability
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0
5
X
10
0.2
0.15
Probability
0.1
0.05
0
0
10
Normal Distribution
0.3
0.25
0.2
Probability
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0
5
X
10
n=20,
X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
9.53674E-07
1.90735E-05
0.000181198
0.001087189
0.004620552
0.014785767
0.036964417
0.073928833
0.120134354
0.160179138
0.176197052
0.160179138
0.120134354
0.073928833
0.036964417
0.014785767
0.004620552
0.001087189
0.000181198
1.90735E-05
9.53674E-07
4.53999E-05
0.000453999
0.002269996
0.007566655
0.018916637
0.037833275
0.063055458
0.090079226
0.112599032
0.125110036
0.125110036
0.113736396
0.09478033
0.072907946
0.052077104
0.03471807
0.021698794
0.012763996
0.007091109
0.003732163
0.001866081
Normal distribution
9.43073E-06
6.1206E-05
0.00032615
0.001427102
0.005127931
0.015132524
0.036676762
0.073013805
0.119391239
0.16036416
0.176936726
0.16036416
0.119391239
0.073013805
0.036676762
0.015132524
0.005127931
0.001427102
0.00032615
6.1206E-05
9.43073E-06
Graphs:
0.2
0.15
Probability
0.1
0.05
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920
X
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
Probability 0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920
X
Normal Distribution
2.00E-01
1.50E-01
Probability
1.00E-01
5.00E-02
0.00E+00
0
8
X
10
12
14
16
18
20
Comparison of Normal Distributions for p=0.05

0.5
0.4
0.3
P(X=x)
n=5
n=10
0.2
n=20
0.1
0
0
10
15
20
25
X
Figure 1

0.35
0.3
0.25
n=5
n=10
n=20
0.2
P(X=x) 0.15
0.1
0.05
0
10
15
X
Figure 2
20
25

0.2
0.15
P(X=x)
n=5
0.1
n=10
n=20
0.05
0
0
10
15
Figure 3
20
25
Conclusion
When the sample size, n and the successful probability, p is not sufficient large, the probability
distributions obtained are positively-skewed. However, as n and p increases, the graphs of
probabilities become more normal and symmetrical. Thus, theoretically, it can be concluded that
the graphs for normal distribution will be a perfect bell-shaped if the sample size, n is
approaching infinity.
For p=0.05,the shape of the graphs is not symmetrical and skewed to the right.The
shape of graph of the Poisson distribution and the binomial distribution are similar
while the graph of normal distribution skewed to the right significantly although n
increases. Thus,normal approximation is not suitable in these case as the skew of
the distribution is too great.
From Figure 2,the shape of normal distribution for n=5 still tends to skew to the
right,as n=10 and n=20, the shape of graph for normal distribution less skew to the
right.This shows that when n increases, the graph become more normal.This also
can be seen from the graphs of binomial distribution and poisson distribution.
From Figure 3, when p=0.5,all the shape of graph for normal distribution shown are
fundamentally normal and symmetrical for all n values (n=5,n=10 and n=20).For
n=20 which is sufficiently large, the graph shown has an almost bell-shape curve.
This have shown that when the value of p and n is sufficiently large, normal
approximation is sensible for calculating probability since the skew of the
distribution is less. The binomial distribution graph and poisson distribution graph
also reveal the similar pattern. As n increase the probability distribution will show a
more normal and symmetrical graphs. The graphs will theoretically become a
prefect bell-shaped if the sample size, n is approaching infinity.

Math T Assignment

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Originaltitel

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

Math T Assignment

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

Introduction

to calculate the binomial distribution probabilities, probabilities of Poisson distribution is

obtained by using formula

and normal distribution with formula

Probability distribution for p=0.1

Probability distribution for p=0.5

Comparison of Normal Distributions for p=0.05

Comparison of Normal Distributions for p=0.1

Comparison of Normal Distributions for p=0.5

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen