IRD

Seminar

Global Issues
in Interna/onal Development

Andrew Speedy Visi4ng Professor, School of Agriculture

Wednesday 21 October 2015

The Blue Marble

Key Data
Land 15 billion ha Water 36 billion ha
Agricultural land 5 billion ha
Global popula4on 7 billion
Urban 53.1 percent - Rural 46.9 percent

Key Data
Global popula4on 7 billion
800 million underfed 1 .1 billion overfed
Poor were underfed now poor badly nourished
Small farmers 50%, landless 20%, urban poor
20%, herders/pastoralists/shers 10%

World Popula4on

Regional popula4on change

6,000,000

5,000,000

4,000,000
1961
3,000,000

2014
2050

2,000,000

1,000,000

0
Oceania

Europe

Americas

Africa

Asia

Hans Rosling
GAPMINDER WORLD 2012

Israel

Mapping the Wealth and Health of Nations

Spain
South Korea

Cape
Verde

Palestine
Nicaragua

life expectancy in years

Honduras

Sick
70

North Korea
Nepal

Uzbekistan

Solomon
Islands

Tajikistan

Guyana

Iraq

Moldova

Kyrgyzstan

Laos

Philippines

65

Yemen

Myanmar

Ghana

Cambodia

Tuvalu

Papua New Guinea

55

Niger

Burundi

Dem. Rep. Congo

500

Sierra Leone

1 000

Trinidad and Tobago

Congo, Rep.

Nigeria

Cameroon
Zambia

Afghanistan

Size by population

Gabon

3 or 10
less

Angola

Lesotho

income per person

100

1000
millions

2011 data for all 193 UN Members and for

Hong Kong, Kosovo, Palestine, Puerto
Rico and Taiwan.

Documentation and
pdf version for print at:
gapminder.org/downloads/world-pdf
Botswana

Equatorial Guinea

Free to copy, share and

remix, but attribute to
Gapminder Foundation.
If you want to see more data visit:

www.gapminder.org

Chad

2 000

Colour by region

Kazakhstan

Namibia

Mauritania

Central African Rep.

Guinea-Bissau

Belarus

Kuwait

Oman

Russia

South Africa

Mali

Mozambique

China

Lithuania

Uganda

Guinea

Somalia

Zimbabwe

Lebanon

United Arab Emirates

Seychelles

Saudi
Arabia

Qatar

Brunei

Bahrain

Kiribati

Timor-Leste

Kenya

Malawi

Estonia

Luxembourg

Turkmenistan

Burkina Benin
Faso
Cote d'Ivoire

Rwanda

Iran
Bulgaria

Azerbaijan

Bhutan

India

Djibouti

Togo

Brazil

Bahamas

Hungary

Latvia

Ukraine

South Sudan

Senegal

Tanzania

Liberia

Indonesia

Sudan

Ethiopia
Gambia

Suriname

Kosovo

St. Kitts
Venezuela
& Nevis
Malaysia
Romania Mauritius

USA

Liechtenstein

Nauru

Comoros

60

Guatemala

Bolivia

Sao Tome
and Principe

Haiti

Colombia Turkey

Jamaica

ArgentinaAntigua
&Barbuda

Montenegro
St.Lucia

Peru

Algeria

Fiji
Mongolia

Pakistan

Madagascar

Dom.R.

Grenada Serbia
Macedonia

Palau
Tonga El Salvador St.Vincent
and G.

Vanuatu

Bangladesh

Life Expectancy of the World

Eritrea

Libya
Armenia
Egypt
Georgia
Jordan
Paraguay Samoa

Morocco

Micronesia

Belize

Ecuador
Sri Lanka Thailand
Tunisia

Singapore

Austria

map layout by Paolo Fausone

75

Syria

Vietnam

Rich

Norway

Sweden

Canada

Taiwan Denmark

Uruguay Barbados
Czech Rep.
Poland
DominicaCroatia
Slovak Rep.
Panama

Income per Person of the World

Poor

Australia

Ireland

UK

Puerto Rico

Mexico
Bosnia and H.

Iceland
San Marino
Hong Kong
Andorra Switzerland

France

Netherlands
Greece Cyprus
Germany
Chile Portugal
Finland Belgium
Malta
Slovenia

Cuba Costa Rica

Healthy
Maldives Albania

50

Italy

New Zealand

80

Monaco

Japan

Swaziland

5 000
10 000
20 000
in US Dollars (GDP/capita, PPP$ inflation adjusted, log scale)

Version 11 September 2012

50 000

World Resources Ins4tute

Land use: Green areas are used for growing crops,

brown areas are used for raising animals.

How to double your crop yield

Gene4c improvement biotechnology - GM

Seed quality
Water / irriga4on
Fer4lizer
Pest and disease control
Integrated pest management IPM
Precision agriculture
Post harvest management (reduced losses)
Added value

How to make your pig (or other) grow twice as fast

(or your cow produce more milk)

Gene4cs
A.I.
Reproduc4on
Balanced nutri4on
Animal health

Livestock diseases
Zoono4c diseases
Food borne diseases
Cistercercosis

Avian inuenza
Newcastle disease
CSF, ASF and PRRS
Foot-and-Mouth Disease FMD
Hemorrhagic sep4caemia
East Cost Fever

Global livestock trends

Global livestock produc4on has increased by more than 60 percent in the
last 20 years (from 187 to 302 million tonnes)* to meet growing demand;
half of this is due to the increase in the human popula4on and the rest a
result of increasing auence in middle-income developing countries
(Speedy, 2003).
From 1992-2012, meat produc4on and consump4on in China has trebled
in all sub sectors (beef, muion and poultry) except pig meat, which has
doubled. Similar trends are seen in SE Asia with increases in poultry and
pig meat of 2.35 and 2.56 4mes respec4vely. Milk produc4on is also rising
rapidly in China, with a 5.29 4mes increase in 20 years (admiiedly from a
low base), and China now produces more than 5 per cent of global milk
supplies.
India has seen a rise of more than four 4mes in poultry produc4on. In the
same period in India, egg produc4on is also up 2.85 4mes and milk, from
an already high level, has more than doubled (now 16.6 percent of World
milk). In S America, meat produc4on has doubled, more or less evenly
across all sectors.
*The equivalent rise in sh and seafood supplies is 85% (from 70 to 130
million tonnes). Regional trends vary.

Key Data
Global popula4on 7 billion
Atmospheric CO2 has passed 400 ppm
More extreme events
Crop yields will be aected
Sea level will rise

Climate change

hip://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html

hip://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html

hip://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html

hip://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html

World at Night

Summary Earth systems Socioeconomic trends

From: Dirk Philipsen, 2015. The Liile Big Number. Princeton University Press.

POVERTY

Key Data
Global popula4on 7 billion
World income: richest lh74%, second 14.6%,
third 6.3%, fourth 3.5%, poorest lh1.5%
Distribu4on between and within countries
Gini coecient 0.25 (Scandinavia) to 0.66 (S
Africa)

GDP Growth

China 8%
India 7%
Vietnam 5%
Cambodia 6%
But.

ICOR (Incremental Capital Output Ra4on)

Real estate
Low tech industry
Decent work?

GDP growth 2009-13

Country
China
India
Kazakhstan
Kenya
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Sri Lanka
Mozambique
Nigeria
Vietnam

2009-13
8.9
7.0
5.4
4.4
5.6
8.1
6.7
7.0
5.9
5.7

US, UK, Japan <1 percent)

Addressing inequality
The increasing urban-rural divide is the most
cri6cal aspect of socio-economic development in
many countries. Besides aec6ng the
achievement of poverty reduc6on targets and
other development goals, a solu6on to this
income disparity is important for the
sustainability of growth and social stability.

Gini coecent World map

Stages of development

Agriculture, shing and pastoralist society

Mining and export commodity based
Low value industry
High value industry
Technology based
Consumer society

Issues

Interna4onal aid (dependence)

Educa4on (low tech)
Government monopoly
State owned enterprises
High interest rates
Corrup4on
Trans na4onal companies

Ways out of poverty (small farmers)

Technology
Apply exis4ng technology

Micronance
Access to markets
Contract farming
Value chain approach (private sector led)
Exit strategy

MICROCREDIT INTEREST RATES VARY STRONGLY BETWEEN COUNTRIES

Global dierences in microcredit interest rates are drama4c. The global
average is about 35 percent, but the average in Uzbekistan is above 80
percent, and in Sri Lanka it is around 17 percent

Small is not beau4ful

Pro poor rural development ?

Improve livelihoods on 1-2 ha ?
Par4cipa4on in value chain ?
Public private partnership ?
Migra4on
Remiiances
Educa4on, health, consump4on

Ways out of poverty (small farmers)

Diversica4on
Fruit and veg
Aquaculture
Non farm enterprises
Agro-tourism

Internal migra4on (urban industries)

Interna4onal migra4on

Restructuring
Larger farms
New technology biotech, GM, chemical, precision ag

Land concessions
Support for private sector
Foreign investment
Export growth
Rural urban shil

Public Private Partnerships

Corporate social responsibility

Research and development
Seeds, fer4lizers, chemicals (distribu4on)
Access to markets (traders, contracts)
Value chain approach
Government regula4on

Ways out of poverty

Trade
(Many countries net importers)
Par4cipa4on?
Export opportuni4es?
Free trade (WTO)?
Regional trade agreements?
Interna4onal compliance (SPS)?
Protec4onism

Two way approach

Large modern specialist farms supply ci4es
(50% popula4on) and export markets
High tech mechaniza4on, GM, value chain
Quality and safety

Small farms self sucient

Diversied fruit, veg, sh
Alterna4ve incomes
Family migra4on and remiiances

Migra4on Good or Bad?

hip://www.migra4onpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/interna4onal-migra4on-sta4s4cs

Remiiances
Dilip Ratha The hidden force in global
economics: sending money home.
TED Talks 9 Oct 2014

Remiiances and other resource ows

into developing countries (US$ billions)
Resource(flows(
!
Migrant!
Remittances!
!
Foreign!Direct!
Investment!
!
Private!debt!and!
Portfolio!Equity!
!
Official!
Development!
Assistance!

1995(
!
54!

2005(
!
198!

2006(
!
232!

2007(
!
286!

2008(
!
331!

2009(
!
316!

2010(
!
341!

2011(
!
381!

95!

307!

398!

559!

637!

428!

583!

644!

59!

193!

277!

429!

186!

180!

284!

201!

57!

108!

107!

108!

127!

126!

130!

I!

!
Source: World Development Indicator, and World Bank Development Prospects 18

Whats Wrong with the World?

Conict
Food crisis
Economic crisis
Poli4cal crisis
Natural disasters
Climate Change

World Map Index of percep4on of corrup4on

Na4onal Economy

Banks
Real
Estate

Government
Tax

Credit
Exports

Market Economy

Public Sector

Consumers

Agriculture
(Farmers)

Manufacturing Service Sector

Labour

Global Economy
Global Finance
Bonds Hedge funds Leveraging Futures Deriva4ves

Global Companies
Banks
Real
Estate

Government
Tax

Credit
Exports

Market Economy

Public Sector

Consumers

Agriculture
(Farmers)

Manufacturing Service Sector

Outsourcing

Labour

All bubbles can expand, contract or burst

Dilemmas and contradic4ons

Economic growth v sustainability
GDP growth v quality of life
Pro poor v trickle down
Strong leadership v good governance
Hegemony, inequality and corrup4on
Democracy v minori4es
Logic v poli4cs (climate change)
or Policies v poli4cs?
Intelligent Governance for the 21st Century: A Middle Way Between West and
East by Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels 2012

The United Na4ons?

Progress towards MDGs 2015

The Sustainable Development Goals 2015-2030

Sustainable Development Goals

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

End poverty in all its forms everywhere

End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutri4on and promote sustainable agriculture
Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
Ensure inclusive and equitable quality educa4on and promote lifelong learning opportuni4es for all
Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanita4on for all
Ensure access to aordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and produc4ve employment
and decent work for all
9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrializa4on and foster
innova4on
10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
11. Make ci4es and human seilements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
12. Ensure sustainable consump4on and produc4on paierns
13. Take urgent ac4on to combat climate change and its impacts
14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests,
combat deser4ca4on, and halt and reverse land degrada4on and halt biodiversity loss
16. Promote peaceful and inclusive socie4es for sustainable development, provide access to jus4ce for
all and build eec4ve, accountable and inclusive ins4tu4ons at all levels
17. Strengthen the means of implementa4on and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable
development