Hello

:)

Where Catholicism is Headed:

Seven Trends that Will Aect
Your Parish, Ministry and Personal Faith

The Plan for Our Time

Together
u

Our plan
u 7

Global trends

Break:
u Trends
u Two

in England

Resources for Your Parish

u Q&A
u

For my notes: mbeyer@ascensionpress.com

The Church is not a

manufactured item. She is
the living seed of God that
must be allowed to grow
and ripen.
Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI

A Few Disclaimers

I speak from an American perspective,

however

This is very much a conversation

Some of this will be bad news; Some will be good

news; All will be interesting

Catholics should always ultimately have hope

Sources
THE OFFICIAL CATHOLIC DIRECTORY

PewResearchCenter

Sources

Survey: Country

We administered a survey to over 740 Catholics

throughout the UK
Northern
Ireland
8%
Scotland
17%

England &
Wales
75%

Survey: Age
75 years or
older

13-24 years

65-74 years old

25-34 years old

55-64 years old

35-44 years old

45-54 years old

Interview Process

We interviewed 24 people throughout the UK who

have varying perspectives and backgrounds within
the Church:

1 bishop

2 religious

1 parish priest

2 religion think tank

researchers

4 Catholic scholars

5 lay diocesan
employees

1 deacon

1 consecrated lay
person

4 involved in various
ministries

2 Catholic reporters

A partridge in a pear
tree

Trend #1:

Shifting Demographics

Shifting Demographics
General World Trends:

Populations of countries will

continue to shift:
Immigration
Birth rates
Refugee situations
X-factors?

As the Church is global, these

shifts will have great implications
for the life of the Church

Shifting Demographics

Source: The Wisdom Years, data taken from the U.S Census Bureau (2008)

(contd)

Shifting Demographics

In 2050 Europe:
Catholic population
will be 5 percent
smaller than it is
today

-CARA

Shifting Demographics

(contd)

The Demographics of the Church Are Shifting

The global Catholic population has grown by 57%

since 1980 (CARA)

Europe +6%
Africa +238%

(CARA)

Gaining/holding ground: Africa, China, Philippines

Losing ground: Europe, Middle East, Latin America (WSJ)

Shifting Demographics

(contd)

The Demography of Church Hierarchy Is Shifting

More dioceses = more bishops

2015: 13 of the 20 new cardinals:

Latin America, Africa, or Asia (WSJ).

1914-1922, Benedict XV:1 nonEuropean cardinal out of 32

(National Geographic)

Shifting Demographics

(contd)

a future in which the South [does not] simply

replace the North, but rather one in which ideas,
movements, and controversies radiate out from
multiple centers in both North and South
-John Allen (emphasis added)

Shifting Demographics

(contd)

Confirmations

54% drop
46% drop
38% drop
60% drop

Source: Christianity Today, June 2015

In 2000, there were more Catholic baptisms in the

Philippines alone than in France, Spain, Italy, and
Poland combined
-Allen

The Faith is Europe,

and Europe is the
Faith
-Hilaire Belloc

How do shifting demographics

affect

Your parish?

Your ministry?

Shifts will save some parishes, but not others. Dioceses

tough decisions to make.

Make tough investments in producing resources in other

languages

Your faith life?

Be open to other cultural expressions of Catholicism

Trend #2:

"Francis Effect

The "Francis Effect

The Divine Plan

Philosopher St. John Paul II
TheologianBenedict XVI
PastorPope Francis
Why? Wawa

Pastoral Approach
Lead with love/Jesus
The Theology of Encounter
Mercy

Ad Intra
Primarily
concerned
with

Examples

(from within)

(from a boundary)

Discussing and resolving

issues concerning the
internal life of the Church

Engaging the broader

religious and social
questions outside of the
Church.

-Womens ordination

- Relationship with
Islam/anti-conversion
laws
-Poverty or tribal
genocide

-Biblical criticism

With whom is
this most
associated?

Ad Extra

Global North

Global South

-The Future Church

The Francis Effect on

Church Hierarchy
u

Pope Francis has

appointed:
u

26% of the voting

members of the
College of Cardinals

Southern
hemisphere popes?

Southern Catholicism: robustly

orthodox
-Allen

The Net Result

For the Progressives
For the Orthodox

The "Francis Effect

u

Unique combination of orthodoxy with

a social justice emphasis
Doctrinal clarity

Outreach

How does the Francis Effect

affect

Your parish?

Your ministry?

Increased focus on welcoming those on

peripheries
Challenge for clergy to walk more closely with
flock

Dynamic orthodoxy

Your faith life?

Left and right called out of their comfort zones to

a more integrated Catholicism

Trend #3:

Rise of Islam

Rise of Islam (contd)

Rise of Islam (contd)

Muslims 6% of the European population. By 2050,

Muslims will make up 10% of the overall European
population
-Pew, CARA

Median age:

European Christians 42
European Muslims 32
-Pew

The religious zeal of many Muslims also holds up an

uncomfortable mirror for Western Christians,
revealing the extent to which their own spiritual
force may have been sapped by secularization
-Allen

Peter Kreeft on Islam:

Islam is attractive
because of its
simplicity. It is stark and
strong like the desert
from which it came. A
Muslim thinks he knows
exactly where he stands
in relation to Godthus
the growth rate.
-Fundamentals of the Faith

How does the growth of

Islam affect

Your parish?

Your ministry?

Increase in theological and apologetical

understanding of Islam (seminars, pamphlets, etc.)

Possible social collaboration with more moderate

Muslims

Your faith life

Dont be afraid to share with Muslims your faith in

Jesus

Trend # 4:

Rise of Evangelical Catholicism

The Rise of Evangelical

Catholicism (cont'd)
1) A clear embrace of traditional Catholic
thought, speech, and practice, the usual word
for which is orthodoxy.
2) Faith seen as a matter of
personal choice rather
than cultural inheritance

The Rise of Evangelical

Catholicism (contd)
Intentional Discipleship

The Rise of Evangelical

Catholicism (contd)
Beginning with the election of
John Paul II in 1978
Catholicism has become
steadily more evangelical.
-John Allen

The Rise of Evangelical

Catholicism (contd)
Weigel:
Evangelical Catholicism
moves the Church out of
the stagnant shallows of
institutional management
to dynamic, intentional
Christian discipleship and
proclamation.
For Parishes
maintenance to mission

How does evangelical

Catholicism affect

Your parish

Dont be afraid of more intentional Catholics

Your ministry?

Ministries are being infused with new vision, hope,

and success

Need to be careful to avoid us vs. them mentality

within ministries

Your faith life?

Challenges our own commitment to the Faith.

Trend #5:

New Evangelization

New Evangelization
New ardor, new approaches, and new
methods for the sake of a New Evangelization
Bottom up, top down
Diocese oces now dedicated to the
New Evangelization

How does the New Evangelization

affect

Your parish?

The Churchs foundational identity is missionary

Promote a should do and can do mentality to your

staff and parishioners

Your ministry?

All ministries need to have an underlying posture of mission

Ground your ministries in prayer

Your faith life?

Your baptismal call means you are called to bear fruit

Trend #6:

New Savvy

New Savvy
People from business world, converts, and the
young
The people of this world Lk 16:8
New boldness, new creativity because
secularism is winning the day

New Savvy

Bishop Barrons
Catholicism

Catholics Come
Home

Chosen

Altaration

Rebuilt

(cont'd)

New Savvy

(cont'd)

Our Lady of
Walsingham

How does the New Savvy affect

Your parish?

Look for people within parish who have secular skillsets

(financial, marketing, etc.)

Your ministry?

Invest in updating website; Use social media to connect with

parishioners

Fight the tendency to do things the ways ministries have

been done

Your faith life?

Pray about what gifts you possess and bring your talents and
ideas to the powers-that-be

Trend #7

A Big Picture Trend?

The Smaller
But More Intentional
Church?

A Snapshot of the Church in the West

1965 2014

The Discerning
and Hopeful Church
(1960 1970)

The Refocused Church

(Present)
Pope Francis
Self-reverential must
give way
Lead with love

The Internally
Solidifying Church
(1980 Present)

The Rising Church

(1990 Present)
New apostolates
enthusiastic for Faith
Vatican II settling
in and knowing of
who we really are

Vatican II
Cultural changes
Move away from
rote Catholicism

Abuse
Scandal

St. John Paul II and

Benedict XVI
New
Catechism &

Code of
Canon Law
Encyclicals

The Uncertain
Church
(1965 1980)
Too much change, too
quickly
Everything seems up for
grabs
Decline in vocations
Increased lay involvement

The Secularized Church

(1970 2000 to Present)
Clerical leadership in
West appeared
uncertain
Rapid decline in
church
participation

UK Church Trends

Trend #1:

Increased Lay Involvement

We will see more lay involvement in

parishes as a result of the priest shortage
and the call to the New Evangelization

Trend #2:

A Leaner Church
u

Continued decrease in Mass attendance

and numbers of Catholics, but increased
clarity and commitment of those who
identify as Catholic

Trend #3:

Changes in Transmission of Faith

u

The transmission of the faith will be harder to

accomplish in Catholic schools growing
pressure to transmit faith through parishes

There has been a push against faith schools who are actively
trying to transmit the faith. The government is concerned about
radicalization and indoctrination in certain Muslim schools...

They cannot just target Muslim schools, so they may be

applying more restrictions to Catholic schools in the future, as
well.
-Director of a think tank that researches the intersection of religion and society

Trend #3:

Changes in Transmission of Faith

(contd)

Parents will need to be catechized to

take on a more active role in
transmitting the faith

Trend # 4:

Increasing Tension with Culture

u

If identity of Catholic Church in the UK sharpens,

UK Catholicism will likely become more high
tension more pronounced friction between the
Church and mainstream UK culture

This may result in growth

I think that many practicing Catholics have a sense that it

will become increasingly difficult for them to practice their
faith within mainstream society in the coming years. I dont
think that sentiment was present twenty or thirty years ago.
-A Catholic journalist in the UK

Trend #5:
Immigrant Catholics
u

Immigrant Catholics will play large role in

life of the UK Church.
u

A Polish parish in West London: up to

seven Sunday masses 5000 people
wishing to worship

Parish risked closing given to Syro

Malabar Indian Catholic community

Micro Trends

Small increases in vocations to priesthood

and religious life

Increase in Eucharistic adoration and

Marian devotions

Attraction to religious movements and lay

communities

Growth in ministries led by and directed

towards young adults

Rising interest in the Traditionalist Latin Mass

Some increase in homeschooling

Push for parish-renewal (e.g. parish cells)

Some concluding
thoughts

Hope is the Essential Word

Why I am here:
Heritage, heroism, and hope
u Momentary amnesia can it be cured?
u

Secular humanism vs. Christian humanism

God is making a tapestry

Begin with Ecclesia in Europa
u

u
u

More pain in wider culture, more turning to

Christianity to heal the pain

u For

my notes:
mbeyer@ascensionpress.com