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Volume 7 Issue 1
StreetAtNITIE
In-Fin-NITIE
ALSO INCLUDES:
Bank Loan for Startups
MSME Sector Development
Global Turmoil and Indian Capital Market
IIQF is the pioneer of high-end finance education in India. It is an education initiative of top industry practitioners
who have pioneered the most sophisticated financial technologies in India like Portfolio Risk Management Models and
Systems and Algorithmic Trading Systems using High Performance Parallel Computing.
A mere 25% of graduates that India produces every year is actually employable. Even though India is poised
to become the third largest economy in the world by 2050, out of all the graduates that pass out in an academic year, only 25% are suitable for getting inducted into the industry.
Jeffrey Fuller, Principal Advisor of Human Capital.
There exists a huge gap between the skills that are required by the industry and what the Indian academic
system produces. The objective of IIQF is to impart training to students in those skill-sets that are in demand
in the industry and make them industry ready, or as we call them The Street-Ready.
Certificate Program in
Advanced Financial Modelling in Excel and VBA
Certificate Program in
Financial Modelling in Excel
A course geared towards teaching the practical skills
required for making a career in Investment Banking,
Equity Research, M&A Specialist, Company Valuations,
etc. This is a program where practicing Investment Bankers and Treasury Professionals teach the latest techniques
and modeling skills that are used in the industry. This
is a hands-on course, with extensive use of computers
and spreadsheets, the training will be imparted through
interactive sessions with extensive use of real world Excel
models.
Leaning Outcome:
Create MS Excel based financial models.
Use the advanced tools of Excel.
Record and use Excel Macros for implementing advanced
functionalities in Excel.
Carry out financial analysis, forecasting, etc.
Valuation of company
Bond Valuation
Valuation of Mergers and Acquisitions
Course Prerequisites:
Basic knowledge of MS Excel
Good knowledge in Finance
Course Prerequisites:
Knowledge of MS Excel
Knowledge of Derivative Instruments
Patron
Prof. Ms. Karuna Jain
Director, NITIE
Convenor
Prof. (Dr.) M Venkateswarlu
Editorial Board
Ankur Gupta
Jitendra Agarwal
Raj Shah
Prashant Pundir
Shashank Kale
Sundeep Tariyal
Design Team
Anish Kumar
Siddhartha Paul
EDITORS NOTE
The Yuan devaluation and the Chinese slowdown has been a major
talking point this year. There had been speculations of a new
financial crisis, affecting the emerging markets in particular. To
unravel the details, this edition presents an objective analysis of the
Chinese currency effects and future implications. With its internal
situation improving, Indian economy has fared better than its
peers and highlighting the same, this edition mentions the agility
of Indian capital markets.
To cover the latest financial related happenings in India, we present
the digital banking and the role of Indian banks in context of
MSME sector.
In our quest to bring to our readers a varied content, we look
into the bank loan issue for startups and present an analysis on
operations of cab-aggregators like Ola and Uber, and the ways it is
being exploited by drivers.
Following the trend, we were inundated with brilliant and exotic
articles that really made us toil hard to find the best. We extend our
sincere gratitude to all the authors who burned the midnights oil to
write such exquisite articles. In our endeavour towards continuous
improvement we invite feedback and criticism at
street.nitie@gmail.com
ii
IN-FIN-NITIE
VOLUME 7 ISSUE 1
14
19
22
24
The First Step is Always the Toughest- Bank Loan for Startups
28
31
34
YUAN DEVALUATION: CAUSES AND IMPACT --> Will it lead to a global currency war and world economic meltdown
-Rohit Kaul, SIMSREE
Such a devaluation followed months and months of
the Yuan appreciating along with the US dollar, making Chinese exports expensive. This would make the
situation politically dangerous for the ruling communist party of China (CPC) as it could lead to loss
of millions of jobs in the Chinese domestic sector
causing wide outrage against the government. There
were other reasons as well attributed to, as to, why the
Introduction
As can be seen from figure 2, Chinas foreign exchange reserves have swelled, almost tripled, in the
last decade as they have looked to slow the appreciating Yuan (see figure 3). Thus in effect it was selling Yuan to buy more dollars to arrest the upsurge of
Yuan. However, to ensure that such an influx of Yuan
doesnt cause a surge in inflation, it raised its reserve
ratio for the banks.
The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has said that Chinese companies
have borrowed about $1 trillion abroad, up from
$200 billion in 2009. With the Fed planning to raise
interest rates, the cost of such borrowing would go up
risking default for many of these Chinese companies.
By doing this, China wanted to keep its exports competitive, as China is primarily an export driven economy. Its exports have fallen by about 1.4% in dollar
terms over the last year, with overseas shipments
down by almost 5.5%. This amidst a falling domestic consumption demand has
triggered the Peoples Bank of
China to devalue the Yuan to
give a boost to the Chinese
domestic market. By increasing the supply of Yuan in the
local as well as international
markets (either by printing
more Yuan or selling off existing Yuan), it has put more
money in the hands of people thus encouraging them to
spend more and thus prop up
consumption. To combat the
resulting fear of inflation, it
has put a tab on the reserve
Country
USA
China
Switzerland
Russia
Turkey
Japan
Norway
Exports
311
165
140
103
75
53
50
Share %
18.3%
9.7%
8.2%
6.1%
4.4%
3.1%
2.0%
Cumm %
18.3%
27.9%
36.2%
42.2%
46.6%
49.8%
52.7%
Source: http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/
tradoc_122532.pdf
Country
USA
European Union
ASEAN
Japan
% Exports
17%
16%
10%
7%
Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/exports
d) Impact on India:
Impact on the Indian economy as
a consequence of the Yuan devaluation is complex. The rupee fell by
about 1.5% following the Chinese
devaluation and has fallen by about
6% from the start of the year. It was because of the
general sell off of the emerging market currencies that has taken place post the devaluation. Part
of the devaluation has also been due to the fears
of the US Fed hike that could further weaken
the currency, hence forcing to RBI to raise interest rates in India i.e. resorting to a contractionary monetary policy and taking away 18 months
of solid hard won macro-economic stability. India
imports a lot of goods from its eastern neighbour.
The import bill from China was about $60 billion
in 2014. The devaluation of Yuan thus brings good
news to many importers from India especially the
electronic and electrical component manufacturing
companies. However, India competes with China in
many sectors like Chemicals and textile manufacturing and post devaluation Chinese goods might be-
To summarise the risks associated and the corresponding actions that could be taken by these Asian
economies to subvert the crisis
A Bank of America report suggests that a 1% drop in decreases the commodity prices by nearly
0.4-0.5%. This is because China is
a large commodity importer and
with slowing demand of commodities there, prices of commodities are languishing at their
lowest levels since 2009. A weak
Yuan adds to the woes of commodities even further. This would
be good news for India as India
is a net importer of commodities
and low commodity prices would
help to lower its import bill thus
improving its trade deficit.
References
James Rickards. (2011), Currency Wars: The Making of the
Next Global Crisis, Penguin Book Ltd., England
http : / / w w w. l ive m i nt . c om / Mon e y / lv x b 2 i c v C b I X N 1WiI6V2AI/Since-the-yuan-devaluation-other-EM-currencies-have-depreci.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-23/
ch i n a - l e d - e me rg i ng - m arke t - tu r moi l - e voke s - wor r i some-1994-parallel
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-07/china-s-foreign-exchange-reserves-fall-in-august-on-yuan-support
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/11801463/How-China-devaluedthe-yuan-for-the-first-time-in-two-decadesand-why-it-matters.html
http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-movesto-devalue-the-yuan-1439258401
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/
inflation-cpi
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/
september/tradoc_122532.pdf
http://marketrealist.com/2015/08/outlook-emerging-economies/
http://www.worldstopexports.com/top-european-export-countries/1889
The digital strategy combined with automating operating models helps in reducing expenses, improves
customer experience, first time processing, revenue
enhancements. The way in which digital technology
works for banks is shown below:-
Today, many banks economic models are under increasing pressure. High network fixed costs, churn
rates are on the rise and this is causing a general drop
in revenues. However digital provides banks with an
opportunity to rethink their operating models in order to address these current challenges and return to
increased profitability. Now for the banks to be successful, it has to focus mainly on these five areas:-
Barclays
(Britain)
Commonwealth
Bank (Australia)
Caixa Bank
(Spain)
Bradesco
(Brazil)
Westpac
(Australia)
Deutche Bank
(Germany)
Intensa
sanpaolo
(Italy)
ICICI Bank
(India)
Payment service using
twitter account. Pay a
friend, prepaid recharges,
check account balance,
view last few transactions.
USA
Europe
Asia
Apart from the Paypal, Applepay, one of the breakthrough innovations in the banking sector was Moven. Some of
its important features are: A smartphone app which tracks the customers money which consists of remarkable features like a spending meter,
automatic categorization, smart transfer of money with social media integration, suspend or unsuspend in case of card
fraud/stolen, it can also be linked with non-moven cards.
Transferwise is the leading online Foreign Exchange Transfer Sevice Provider. It is a peer to peer money
transferring service that is quickly conquering the world. Some of the key features of Transferwise are: It has a website-embedded pay links, call center Center & a smart and aggressive referral program and welcomegifts.
Money Forward; It is a Japanese integrated personal finance solution. It is a brilliant idea that connects 1700
Japanese financial services providers to enable the customer to view all finances on one dashboard. Some of the most
important features: Card accounts, bank accounts, loyalty cards, mileage cards, utility bills, medical billings, insurance billings, phone
bills, phoneenhanced purchases, forex, equity and debt trading, investments, savings, credits, loans and mortgages,
travelrelated costs accounted electronically and many other electronically available financerelated things are visible
on the integrated dashboard.
Africa
M-Pesa It is a mobile money transfer solution that has transformed societies in Africa and is now conquering other
continents. Some of its features are: Deposit, withdrawal, transferring money, making payments to users and nonusers, paying bills, sending remittances,
repaying microloans: phone via PIN secured SMS text messages, receiving funds, microloans. Purchase of goods and
services: phone via PIN secured SMS text messages.
Australia
Nimble- Apply for a loan from your smart phone and receive the money on your account within 60 minutes.
Nimble is quick, paperless, simple and charming, but it is expensive (Establishment Fee: 20 percent of the capital and
Interest: 4 percent per month of the principal).
Leveraging
smartphone capabilities to
Is an innovator in personal finance space, providing a completely digital
improve app funccustomer experience
Aditya
tionality: With a
The platform itself provides a financial aggregation tool, assimilating various
financial
relationships
of
an
individual
under
one
roof.
The
initial
attraction
is
Birlas My therefore being able to see all of ones accounts in a single place, track expenses
flurry of affordable
and manage ones personal expenses
smartphones being
Universe
launched in the Indian mobile market
through
aggressive
pricing strategies, de The joint offering provides both companies with a host of opportunities. For
the tie up will drive more purchases as customers will now have
Snapdeal- Snapdeal,
vice penetration is exa payment mechanism to use, apart from potential sales increases with
offers from using the card on Snapdeal.
pected to experience
HDFC co- specific
Further, the targeting of smaller towns will be beneficial to Snapdeal that
sizable growth. Acsees a significant portion of its 3 Biilion annual USD gross merchandise
branded
sales generated from Tier III and Tier IV towns and cities. The move will
cording to an e-Maropen up customer acquisitions in smaller towns for HDFC, apart from
credit card also
keter report, by 2016,
gains from increased card usage and transaction volumes.
India will have more
than 200 million
smartphone users, overtaking the US as the worlds
Digital banking the way forward:second largest smartphone market. Along with the
latest internet trends, designing content tailored for
Take advantage of richer, cheaper data access: So- smartphones, and leveraging the increased functioncial platforms have developed themselves into fer- ality of smartphones, including GPS, camera and actile ground for developing customer insights, un- cess to fast internet, will continue to be a key driver
derstanding the latest trends of likes and dislikes, as for the growth of the industry. Developing innovative
well as testing hypotheses and building brand equity. apps and mobile experiences will be a major hook in
By combining access to rich, varied data with pow- engaging potential customers. Expanding the scope
erful analytics tools and techniques, banks can now of banking app functionality to provide options for
go beyond the traditional demographic and finan- not just existing customers but potential customers
cial data sources to utilize social data while profiling could be a major step towards using the platform as
customers better to understand their individual re- a customer acquisition tool. For example, tying in
quirements. Search engine optimization is another the smartphones GPS functionality to provide cusapproach that continues to be a formidable customer tomers with top retail offers and discounts in their
acquisition strategy. According to the Shop.Org and vicinity can be a pull to download and use the app.
Forrester State of Retailing Online 2014 study, 85% Bundling this with further discounts when using the
of retailers put search engine marketing as the most banks products can then induce the user to apply for
effective online customer acquisition tool.
the banks products. If the app can be used to set up a
meeting with a bank sales representative (messaging
Building partnerships: E-commerce websites and ag- or calling through the app or geo-tagging the customgregators: With phenomenal boom being observed in ers location) or even allow the potential customer to
the e-commerce space in India, banks can use these apply for the product directly through the app, the
channels as a means to reach out to new customers, conversion from potential to existing customer is far
including those in smaller cities. Apart from explor- more likely. Such hooks to promote customer interest
ing regular advertising strategies on these websites, that require low initial customer effort will provide a
joint product offerings could be an innovative oppor- good opportunity to increase lead conversion.
tunity. The e-commerce boom has also increased the
customers comfort with online purchases. And this Optimizing acquisition processes through digital:
is slowly expanding to the financial products space as With the onset of Adhaar, biometric technologies are
is evident with financial product aggregators witness- fuelling innovation in this space. By leveraging such
ing business growth. Eg:- Bankbazaar.com, which is technologies, banks can now develop doc-less applian aggregator for loans and credit cards among other cation processes. By scanning ones fingerprint and
financial products, saw disbursals double across all hitting the Adhaar database, ones KYC is automatiproduct categories.
cally generated, eliminating the need for photo-iden-
10
Digital Payment Solutions: Outdoor payments enabled by near field communication technology:- Most
outdoor micropayments will be driven by near field
communication (NFC) devices, as is evident with the
bPay band, a wearable payments solution launched
by Barclaycard. It is a wristband that enables customers to make myriad transactions in shops, bars, cafes
as well as public transport. The wearable device offers
customers a simpler way to pay for goods and services by just tapping their wristband to pay for bus
journeys, their morning coffee, lunchtime sandwich
or post-work drinks. Turkcell Wallet for instance
is a digital wallet product that offers customers the
payment option for both, online as well as point-ofsale transactions based on the NFC technology. EpClearing is a payments framework, designed for high
volumes of low-value cross-border payments, ensuring a cost-effective and transparent service for secure
international payments. Unlike traditional open loop
(correspondent banking or wire payment) systems,
Earthport processes a cross-border payment as a domestic credit transfer, interlinked through a sophisticated virtual accounting engine.
Segment Profiles:Segment
Age
Aspiring
18-34
Bloomers
Ardent Afflu- 18-34
ents
Liberal Users
35-54
11
Cautious Seniors
Disinclined
Conservatives
55+
55+
Income
Less than or equal to
Rs 500000 annually
Greater than Rs
500000 annually
Rs (500000-1000000)
annually
More than Rs 1000000
annually
Rs (500000-1000000)/
month
1. Customer Acquisition through Mobile Banking:Provide clients with a value added experience/proposition that would contain a preferential price e.g.
provide them with a good interest rate on savings account, enhanced customer experience with rapid and
simple subscription process, a five click subscription
process as follows:i)Automatic calculation of the loan amount by the
system.
ii)Personal data collection (e.g. e-KYC) along with
contact details.
iii)Automatic and paperless income data checking
process.
iv)Liabilities data collection and check, assign credit
rating to the client.
v)Finalize deals and sync agreements.
Here online verification will be based on small money transfer from the clients bank. If data in the transfer made by the client is consistent with data given by
him/her in the application, the verification should be
considered positive.
Here the target segment would be ardent affluents
followed by aspiring bloomers. The budget required
will depend upon the fees charged by app developers
which can range in between $15k to $25k based on
the applications it can provide through the mobile
app.
count, tax by enhancing the personal financial management (PFM) experience through the mobile app.
The target segment here should include all the smartphone users having internet connections (both existing and new customers) comprising of ardent afluents, aspiring bloomers, liberal users, cautious seniors
as well as disinclined conservatives (try to penetrate
more into this segment). Since this strategy includes
application chat facilities, a customer care team has
to be put in place who can connect and engage with
customers real time and solve queries accordingly.
Challenges:The banks opting for digitalization can face competition from payment banks and small banks like Bandhan Financial, IDFC as they will bring in new competencies. Also most banks are now turning towards
digital banking in which HDFC is leading from the
front. Meanwhile RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan
has a long list of reforms for this sector which ranges from reviewing the archaic priority sector lending
norms to the development of the debt market. These
reforms will offer both opportunities and challenges
for Banks. Apart from these there are some key cyber
security risks associated with digital implementation
(shown aside) but the opportunity which lies forward
is an exciting journey Banks can embrace with.
Here the target segment is definitely ardent affluents, aspiring bloomers followed by liberal users and
cautious seniors to some extent. A Google Analytics
consultant generally charge $125/hour for google analytics services, so the budget has to prepared keeping the consultants fees and time in mind.
System
inoperability
caused by a breach:
inability to execute
trades and access
to information
Damage to the
brand and
reputation: Loss of
share value and
market confidence
12
13
ing mobile devices for activities such as Internet browsing, online purchase and online dating.
So, why not keep mobile website ON? This is because
there is an increased focus by the consumers & producers alike on Apps because mobile web-browsers
are not-so-customer-friendly. Plus the consumers
have a tendency to browse through a higher number of
products & have better repeat purchase rates on a mobile-app as compared to mobile or desktop websites.
n a first-of-its-kind move by an e-commerce player anywhere in the world, Myntra morphed into a
mobile based retailer form on 15th, May 2015. The
company which had already turned down the mobile version of its website, closed its website (even on
computers/laptops) in an attempt to become a mobile App-only retailer. Moreover, Flipkart, the parent company of Myntra, went ahead with a similar
move in late march this year and pulled off its mobile
website. If the tweets of Sachin Bansal, the co-founder & CEO of Flipkart, are anything to go by, Flipkart
also plans to replicate the mobile app-only retailer
if the experiment with Myntra becomes successful.
So why such a craze for the morphism? To answer that
lets begin first with why to have m-commerce when
e-commerce is already there. As Mr. Bansal puts it,
pursuing a website-only retailing model is probably
the riskiest thing in e-commerce business anywhere
in the world because that way you are not catering to
the customer segment which looks for far more ease
& has far less technical upgradation & sophistication.
OK! Accepted! But then why App-only? Lets discuss this matter by first looking at the changes which took place in Indian landscape on
the basis of which the decision was taken.
Smartphones in India
3G Subscribers
Monthly addition
14
believed to be the declining costs of connectivity and the speedy deployment of connectivity in
emerging economies and developing countries.
So, Mr. Bansal bases the decision of re-launching Myntra as a mobile-app only retailer, on the fact that India is going through a mobile commerce revolution.
Myntra derived 90% of its traffic and 70% of its sales
through the mobile platform. The company had about
9 million mobile app users with approximately 4 million customers having made purchases through it.
platforms to deal
with utilities, retailers, bank, and
other business entities. 80% of the
answerers
conceded that besides
messaging
and
calling, they are
progressively us-
500.0
519.7
436.1
400.0
300.0
200.0
143.9
100.0
76
40.5
35.8
0.0
704.1
2013
165.3
184.2
123.3
50.8
49
167.9
58.2
57.4
2014
2015
15
198.5
243.8
204.1
65.1
211.5
71.9
61.2
63.9
2016
2017
279.2
220
76.4
65.5
2018
16
Loyalty
17
Conclusion
Praveen Sinha, co-founder of Jabong, mentioned that they firmly believe the buyers
should have the ability to choose whether to
purchase on his smartphone or on the laptop.
In the conclusion, we would suggest that the e-commerce players should keep on experimenting with
the ever-dynamic Indian Consumer which will lead
them to a better strategy. As the Rama Bijapurkar, in
her book We Are Like That Only: Understanding the
Logic of Consumer India, states that the Indian Consumer shouldnt be assumed to be going the same path
as their western counterparts went in their consumerism. In a country with such a cultural, social & financial
diversity, micro-segmenting is the best way forward.
The market is rife with both supporting & opposing views on being mobile-only retailer. Thus,
a lot remains to be seen on the basis of its impact
on profitability & market share. The writers of the
article tried to search for authentic data representing such a case study but as of now the e-comm &
m-comm players are giving contradictory views.
References
http://www.statista.com/statistics/257048/smartphone-user-penetration-in-india/
http://www.ibtimes.co.in/myntra-sees-10-dropsales-after-moving-app-only-format-633160
http://trak.in/tags/business/2015/05/18/amazon-snapdeal-jabong-refuse-flipkart-myntras-mobile-only/
http://www.huffingtonpost.in/dhritiman-hazarika/6-reasons-why-flipkarts-a_b_7800628.html
http://yourstory.com/2015/05/myntra-app-only-move-mobile/
http://trak.in/tags/business/2013/10/21/m-commercegrowth-india-30-snapdeal-sales-mobiles/
http://www.ibtimes.co.in/myntra-sees-10-drop-sales-aftermoving-app-only-format-633160
18
plays a pivotal role as a growth engine of Indian Socio-economy and is a major contributor towards the
equitable and sustainable development of the economy. It is one of the main pillars of the Prime Ministers Mr. Narendra Modi Make in India campaign.
MSMEs is one of the critical component of growth
story of India with its continuous contribution towards generating the highest rates of employment in
India after the agricultural sector. It is also making
significant contributions towards the GDP, imports,
exports, gross industrial value of output, gross value added and investments in fixed assets which ultimately results in the development of the Indian manufacturing, services and infrastructure sectors. It is
not wrong to say that the future of India lie in hand
of these MSMEs.
MSMEs contributes approximately 37.5% to the
GDP of India in the year 2012-2013 and has steadily
maintained it for the past three years, which comprises of 30% contribution from the services sector
and the remaining from the manufacturing sector. It
means it has added a gross value of Rs. 20.56 lakh
crore out of which services sector has contributed to
71.2% and the remaining 18.8% by the manufacturing as per the latest Report of the MSME committee
which came in Feb, 2015. MSMEs also accounts for
around 40% of the exports of India and significantly
Micro
Small
Medium
Manufacturing
Services
(Investment in plant
(Investment in
and machinery)
equipment)
19
(Provisional)
20
All Scheduled
Public Sector
Private Sector
Banks
Banks
5,33,279.29
1,24,725.66
23,300.71
6,81,305.66
6,43,525.02
1,82,247.82
43,251.30
8,69,024.14
(20.7%)
(46.1%)
(85.6%)
(27.6%)
7,54,391.07
2,46,025.76
34,359.17
10,34,775.99
(17.2%)
(35.0%)
(-20.6%)
(19.1%)
Foreign Banks
Commercial
banks
References:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/money/
msme-sector-undercapitalized-role-of-bank-finance-crucial/
articleshow/47890997.cms
http://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/-banks-toplay-bigger-role-in-msme-sector-110121900037_1.html
Research Paper: Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises
(MSME) in India; Financing by banks, www.ijbmi.org, Volume
3, Issue 1, January 2014, PP.07-16
Research Paper: The Role of SIDBI in developing the MSMEs
in India, IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF)
e-ISSN: 2321-5933, p-ISSN: 2321-5925. Volume 1, Issue 6
(Nov. Dec. 2013), PP 08-14 www.iosrjournals.org
MSME Committee Report, Feb, 2015
21
22
23
24
March 2005
3.29%
DIIs, 8.81%
FIIs,
14.50%
Promoters,
54.05%
March 2015
March 2010
NonInstitutions,
15.35%
NonInstitutions,
19.34%
Others, 3.82%
DIIs,
12.42%
FIIs,
15.53%
Promoters,
52.87%
25
NonInstitutions,
15.06%
Others, 4.23%
DIIs,
10.77%
FIIs, 20.94%
Promoters,
49%
Earlier, among foreign investors, only FIIs were allowed to invest in Indian stocks. Now, even retail investors from abroad can invest in markets. Further,
several mutual funds and insurance companies have
invested through the institutional route; hence, no
single group can influence the market.
Chinese Downturn
After rising by 150% in the last one year, Chinese
stocks have dramatically nose-dived in the last few
months. The rapid decline has sparked fears that
Chinese stocks may be entering a long-term bear
run. This fear can be attributed to the slowing Chinese economy and its high debt-to-GDP ratio levels.
Indian stocks have managed to stay relatively resilient to the turmoil in Chinese stocks of late. While
the Shanghai Index has dropped 40% since June 12,
2015, the Sensex has lost only 5% in the same, even
though it touched 25,000 levels in this period. It implies that though Indian equities got affected by the
Chinese drop, they have managed to recoup and are
currently nicely placed.
the Fragile Five economies and its inflation was spiking with falling GDP growth. The situation is very
different now.
Advantage India
The crash in oil prices have helped to limit the import
bill, hence the CAD is tamed. Inflation and interest
rates are trending down, which is a good sign for the
economy, which wants to invest more to stimulate
growth. India is best placed in comparison with its
other emerging market peers, which are still struggling to get its macros in good shape. This puts India
in a sweet spot and will hold it in good stead when
the Fed starts increasing its interest rates.
The present stability of the rupee, as against the sharp
depreciation in the Brazilian Rial and Turkish Lira is
testimony to the strength of the Indian economy and
an indication of the shape of things to come.
Forex reserves have swelled to a great extent, which
puts India in a relatively better fiscal position, providing cushion against volatility. It can be attributed
to the RBIs continuous buying of dollars in the last
Taper Tantrums
During the announcement of taper, the initial selling
happened in the Indian debt markets. The selling created some panic and the rupee depreciated sharply
touching 68.85 to the US dollar on 28 August 2013.
It was this unexpected crash in the rupee that created more panic among FIIs forcing them to pull out
funds from equities as well.
Another major factor that can explain why markets
went crashing was Indias poor fundamentals. Indias
twin deficitsfiscal and current accountwere in
dangerous territory, it was classified as one among
26
couple of years. The countrys foreign exchange reserves now stand at $350.8 billion, making India one
of the top 10 holders of Forex reserves in the world.
It is true that the Indian market is presently trading at
premium valuations. But it is important to note that
India has the best structural growth story among its
emerging market peers. Therefore, considering the
expected recovery in growth and earnings, the stocks
might provide greater returns even though they
might currently be expensive buys.
The return on equity (RoE) in emerging markets is
27
Financial institutions, unlike angel investors and venture capitalists or for that matter family and friends, do
not extend loans on the basis of a gem of an idea or lucrative income projections.
28
Prime Ministers Employment Guarantee ProThirdly, raising money through debt brings the addi- gramme (PMEGP) is another scheme under which
tional burden of interest payments. The early stages entrepreneurs can startup by contributing only
of a startup are characterized by low revenues and 10% (5% for women entrepreneurs) of the project
significant expenditure on capacity building. Debt cost from their own funds, the government providservicing increases the recurring fixed cost, thereby ing 15% (25% for women entrepreneurs) of the projputting added pressure on cash flows.
ect cost. However, this scheme is applicable only to
startups whose investment does
The above points do present But what if a startup could not exceed Rs 25 lakhs for mana strong case as to why start- avail a loan based on its ufacturing sector or Rs. 10 lakhs
ups are unable to avail bank future viability rather than its for service sector.
loans. But, what if a startup business history, without the
could avail a loan based on its entrepreneur having to submit
future viability rather than its collateral security or personal The above schemes directly adguarantee,
all
this
at
a
dress the aforementioned apbusiness history, without the
comparatively lower rate of
entrepreneur having to submit
prehensions of an entrepreneur.
interest? Seems impossible?
collateral security or personal Not now..
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the government guarantees only 75% of the outstanding amount in default; the remaining amount turns
into losses for the bank. Naturally, banks are wary in
sanctioning such loans. Convincing the banker that
a loan to the business is a safe investment, requiring
good homework on the part of the borrower. He
must back his business plan with detailed pro-forma
income statements, cash flow statements and balance
sheets for the next five years. Moreover, the worth
of a startup depends greatly on the vision, sincerity and determination of the entrepreneur, of which
the banker must be convinced.
Besides, it is important to
be acquainted with every
detail of the loan scheme;
otherwise the banker
might easily take the borrower for a ride. It is also
advisable to approach at
who says, Yes, I will.
Just keep looking and the
startup least three banks
at least three banks at
once, preferably those with the borrower has exciting
relationship.
Even then, getting a proposal sanctioned might take
some time. But if the idea is worthy, there will surely
be a banker who says, Yes, I will. Just keep looking
and the startup might soon be up and running!
Trivia
All Scheduled Commercial Banks (either PSU, Private or Foreign Banks), select Regional Rural Banks
and such of those institutions as may be directed by
GOI are covered under CGTMSE. Small Industries
Development Bank of India (SIDBI), National Small
Industries Corporation Ltd (NSIC) and North Eastern Development Finance Corporation Ltd (NEDFI) have also been included as eligible institutions.
More than 1.1 million proposals have been approved under CGTMSE till April 2013,providing
guarantee cover for a total sanctioned loan amount
of Rs543.22 billion.
Almost 50% of the U.S states offer some form of tax
break to angel investors.
The number of angel in the U.S has tripled since
1999.
According to estimates in the last two years 225000
people have made an angel investment in the U.S.
30
False Revenues
Ola and Uber boast of the fact that they incentivize
the cab drivers so well that well educated people and
even engineers are signing up for this job. It is
31
60000
Rs. 100
Rs. 80
Possible Remedies
There are a few solutions that might appear fool-proof
in saving a fortune for these companies but there is
a shortcoming which exists with each one of them
Cab drivers also indulge in starting two trips simultaneously in both Uber and Ola apps in two
different devices. This is possible if there are two
commuters and both of them book the cab for the
same driver. The cab driver asks the customers to
make multiple bookings to verify the costs by Uber
and Ola but charges only for the cheaper of the two
fares. There is not much financial mismatch in this
case but the whole model becomes a joke. Thus,
the recent regulation which involves a driver being asked to pay a service fee of Rs. 300 per week
will act as a stringent measure for this practice.
Similar instances were reported when huge incentives of Rs. 5000 were announced by the Ola cabs
for every 10 rides completed and used to double
for 20 rides during the week starting with Christmas leading up to the New Year. Some smart cab
drivers bought cheap smartphones and installed
Ola apps in their phones, booked rides for each
other, drove the cab for a few kilometers to show
genuineness. In the process, some of the cab drivers made 70,000 during those 10 days, with an estimated loss of 2.4 million dollars during that period, by doing a similar calculation as shown above.
Solutions
Proposed Solution
12000
If a transmitter can measure how far a user is from the cab and how much time has elapsed from the last
ended ride, an algorithm can be implemented to stop the user from booking the same cab again
Putting a time limit of 30 minutes on not being able to request the same cab can be another easier solution but
as mentioned above, it will be a pain for a user genuinely wanting to travel in the same cab, to make a fresh
booking for a different cab because of this constraint
Cab-aggregators have to be absolutely sure of the consequences whenever they announce a new incentive.
Not having their own inventory causes very less monitoring or control over the vehicles plying under their
brand name. In the race to grow faster, Uber had to
do away its limitation of being able to book a cab only
using the mobile wallet Paytm, which otherwise was a
better framework to avoid these fraudulent activities.
Lastly, the customers should realize that such practices cannot occur if they do not allow it. There
is a need to advise the customers about the kind
of losses the company providing them these services can suffer and discouraging it would make
the company more capable in serving them better.
Shortcomings
Cab driver pays in cash the loss incurred by the
customer
32
33
3) In context with the falling rupee, a leading newspaper wrote recently that RBI has used up most of
the available ammunition to prevent the rupees slide
in the over-the counter market, but without much
success. Which among the following steps was taken
by RBI, which has been referred to available ammunition in this statement?
a) RBI sold the foreign currency in market
b) RBI purchased the foreign currency from market
c) RBI purchased the stocks from various stock exchanges in India
d) RBI Revaluated the Indian Rupee
4) A firm has an expected dividend pay-out ratio of
60% and an expected future growth rate of 7%. What
should the firms fundamental price-to-earnings
(PIE) ratio be if the required rate of return on stocks
of this type is 15%?
a)
7.1x b)
7.3X
c)
7.5X d)
7.9X
5) Two parties enter into a 2 year fixed for floating
interest rate swap with semi-annual payments. The
floating rate payments are based on LIBOR. The 180,
360, 540 and 720 day annualized rates are 5%, 6%,
6.5%, 7%. The swap rate is closest to
a)
6.62 b)
6.96
c)
6.03 d)
6.16
6) An analyst gathered the following data
Net Sales 4000
Dividend declared
170
COGS 2000
Inventory increased by
100
Accounts payable increased by
300
Cash expenses for other inputs
500
Long term debt principal repayments 250
Cash tax payments
200
Purchase of new equipment
300
What is CFO of the company based on above data?
7) In a one period bionomial model the hedge ratio is
0.35. to construct a riskless arbitrage involving 1000
call options if the option is overpriced what is the appropriate portfolio?
Calls Stocks
a)
Buy 1000 options
Short350 shares
b)
Buy 1000 options
Short 2857 shares
c)
Sell 1000 options
Buy 350 shares
d)
Sell 1000 options
Buy 2857 shares
8) For whom these series of notes were issued?
BBB
52.8
4.8
1.6
15%
32
70
12%
CCC
25.75
4
2.5
8%
50
35.5
10%
10) Select the stock that is most undervalued by applying justified Price to Book value
11) Justified price to sales ratio of BBB is closest to
a)
1.3 b)
1.5
c)
1.7 d)
1.9
34
The project is expected to increase pre-tax net income and cash flow by 3000 in each of the next 8 years
D/E=1
Cost of equity 12%
Pre-tax cost of debt capital is 6%
Tax rate 33%
The NPV is approximately
a)
1551 b)
6604
c)
7240 d)
2656
19) The current spot price for corn is $3/bushel,
the effective monthly interest rate is 1.5%, and the
monthly storage costs are $0.03/bushel. The 3-month
forward price for a bushel of corn is closest to
a)
3.23 b)
2.93
c)
3.93 d)
2.15
20)SoftBank invested 627 million US dollar in the
online marketplace A in October 2014. First acquisition of A after this investment is B
21) The following picture is associated with an acquisition. Name the company which acquired it.
23) Connect
16) For a bond currently priced at 1018 with an effective duration of 7.48, if the market yield moved down
75 basis points, the new price would be approx.
a)
961 b)
1075
c)
1094 d)
1186
17) A 25 year 1000 par semi-annual pay bond with
a 7.5% coupon and a 9.25% YTM. Based on a yield
change of 50 basis points, the approximate modified
duration is
a)
8.73 b)
10.03
c)
12.5 d)
13.33
18) Refer to the below information
The proposed project cost 10000
35
ANSWERS:
1. Instagram 2. B)
3.
A) 4.
C)
5.
A) 6.
1500
7.
Sell 1000 options, Buy 350 shares
8.
For haj going pilgrims by RBI
9.
A) 10.
BBB
11.
C) 12.
A)
13.
A) 14.
A)
15.
B) 16.
B)
17.
B) 18.
A)
19. A)3.23
20.
A Snapdeal B Wishpicker 21.
Facebook
22.
Liftware by Google
23.
Crypto-currency
About NITIE
NITIE Mumbai is a premier
institute and a centre of
excellence recognised by
the Government of India.
It was setup in 1963 in
the collaboration with
the International Labour
Organization. Since its
inception NITIE has been
providing solutions to the
complex problems of the
Industries. Today, NITIE
is constantly ranked within
top 10 B-schools in India and its Post Graduate Programmes are amongst the
best in the country. Throughout the year, NITIE and its alumni have carved a
niche for themselves in the industry.
Team $treet
Street is a student run finance interest group at NITIE that promotes finance
related activities and is commited to encourage and engage the finance enthusiast
in the student community. Street is one of the most active clubs in the campus
and caters to students with a wide varietyof finance related interests whether
it is Corporate Finance, Financial Risk Modelling, Commercial banking,
Investment Banking, Investment Management or Venture Capital/ Private
Equity. We bring together members of NITIE community and professionals
from financial Industries through events such as Beat the Street case study
competition, quaterly magazine(In-FIN-NITIE), knowledge sharing sessions,
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and numerous other activities.
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36