Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.
The Round Up
30 March 2010
Issue No. 302
Equities
Move Last % Move Range Volume
ASX 200 +0.4 4897.3 +0.0% -7 to +15 $4.9 bn(A)
SPI - yesterday +17.0 4940.0 +0.3% -5 to +20 2,086(L)
Dow Jones +45.6 10895.9 +0.4% -1 to +66 Low
S&P 500 +6.6 1173.2 +0.6% +1 to +8 Avg
Nasdaq +9.2 2404.4 +0.4% +3 to +16 Avg
FTSE +7.6 5710.7 +0.1% -18 to +30 Avg
Commodities
Move Last % Today % Past Month
Oil-WTI spot +2.41 82.41 +3.0% +3.5%
Gold Spot +3.10 1110.60 +0.3% -0.6%
Nickel (LME) +17.74 1086.82 +1.7% +13.6%
Aluminium (LME) +2.78 102.10 +2.8% +7.1%
Copper (LME) +11.46 350.72 +3.4% +7.9%
Zinc (LME) +4.64 104.30 +4.7% +5.9%
Silver +0.48 17.38 +2.8% +5.5%
Sugar +0.51 17.51 +3.0% -27.4%
Equity Structured Products and Warrants
Overnight Commentary
Stocks moved higher thanks to increased consumer spending and a stronger outlook for European economies which saw
the US dollar weaker. The Dow finished 46pts higher, the S&P was up 0.6% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.4%.
Eco - Personal Spending was inline with expectations at +0.3% but Personal Income just missed, flat vs +0.1%. The PCE
Deflator was also inline at 1.8% as was the PCE Core YoY at 1.3% and Month on Month PCE Core was flat vs +0.1%
expected.
Materials - A strong night for metals and crude has seen Dow heavyweights climb. Caterpillar was up 1.7%, Alcoa rose
1% whilst Exxon and Chevron were up 1.3% and 1.2% respectively and together the 4 accounted for half of the Dow's
gains. Freeport, up 4.7%, was the best on the S&P100.
Financials - Citi dropped 2.6% and was down nearly 5% after Treasury revealed its plans to sell their stake. Rumours that
Morgan Stanley has been chosen to advise and underwrite the Citi share sale saw it climb 2.3% but it was mixed on the
big board with BoA up 0.8% whilst JP's fell 0.4%.
The FTSE closed 8 points higher Monday as gains in miners and communications heavyweight Vodafone outweighed
losses in the banks. The market finished the day up 0.1%, the DAX +0.4% and the CAC flat.
UK Banks - News that the US government pledged to sell all of their 7.7bn ordinary shares in Citigroup lead the financials
lower. State backed Lloyds and RBS off 1.3% and 1.8% while HSBC and Standard Chartered fell 0.8% and 1.3%
respectively with the 4 stripping 6 point from the market.
Vodafone - Vodafone had a day out adding 3% as press stated they may receive a dividend payment from Verizon
Wireless, a joint venture between itself and US counterpart Verizon Communications. The company refused to comment.
Eco - In the UK, mortgage approvals missed expectations at 47.1k vs 48.4k and net consumer credit was 0.5B vs 0.4B
exp. German CPI (mom) was 0.5% vs 0.3% and 1.1% vs 0.9% (yoy).
Equity Structured Products and Warrants
Commodities Commentary
Miners - Miners tracked metal prices higher today with investors' quelling their sovereign debt fears allowing the Euro to
hold its recent gains. RIO, Xstrata, Lonmin, BHP and Kazakhmys adding 1.2% to 3.2% and 10 points to the broader
index.
Energy - Energy plays were weaker despite a stronger crude price. BP, BG and Royal Dutch off 0.4% to 0.7%.
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded down 2pt to 4923. Open at 4925 with a high of 4946 and a low of 4906. Volume 18,715. Overnight the SPI
traded up 17pts 4939.
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS
Source: IRESS
2Q10 result strong and upgrade to guidance; raise FY11F EPS to US$1.13
2Q10 operating profit of US$1,212m was above RBS Research’s US$983m forecast and up 44% on the pcp. 2Q10
normalised EPS of US$0.25 was ahead of RBS Research’s US$0.20 forecast (consensus US$0.20). The company
doubled its FY10 op profit growth guidance to ‘low 20’s’ from ‘high single to low double digit’. We believe this guidance
remains conservative in light of the 26% growth already delivered in the first half and pcp’s getting easier. RBS has raised
FY10F op profit to US$4,340m or 26% growth (vs +20% previously).
Cable continues to power ahead
Cable had another very strong quarter, with op profit up 35%. RBS raise FY10F cable op income 9% to US$2.23bn.
Cable makes up over 50% of News Corp’s op profit and is the key driver of earnings growth. Filmed earnings were also
strong, with very strong Avatar profits still to come.
Source: IRESS
Get long QBE with QBEKZM for a rebound to RBS Target Price of $23.50.
Source: IRESS
Our major bank cash EPS forecasts fall by 1% for FY11 and 2% for FY12
We have cut our forecast for system total lending growth for FY11 and FY12 to 6% from 7.5% and 8.5%. We doubt the
major banks can offset sluggish system loan growth by grabbing market share. We have cut our cash EPS forecasts for
the major banks by about 1% for FY11 and about 2% in FY12. The depressed loan growth for Australia and New Zealand
supports our preference for ANZ, as its Asian expansion strategy will decrease its reliance on the local market.
With the economy set to rebound in 2010, most sell-side bank earnings forecasts assume a solid recovery in lending
growth. The average current sell-side estimates suggest total lending growth for the big four Australian banks to reach 8%
in FY11 and 9% in FY12.
We also note the banks also expect sizeable recoveries in Australian lending growth.
Equity Structured Products and Warrants
Our analysis suggests that these forecasts are overly bullish, and conclude that total lending growth for the majors will
hold steady at roughly 6% in FY11 and FY12.
RBS Research have conducted a top-down review of macroeconomic factors that will influence
home and business lending over the medium term, and also a bottom-up review of recent trends
in approvals and paydowns.
RBS Research have arrived at a total lending growth rate of 5.9% in FY11 and FY12. Based on RBS Research forecasts,
to arrive at a total lending growth rate of roughly 8-10% (consensus) we would need to see a substantial improvement in
business lending of +6-10% above RBS Research forecasts, or a jump in home lending growth of 2-4% above forecast.
As a result RBS Research have made downward revisions to lending growth assumptions for the major banks. RBS
Research have downgraded cash EPS forecasts by ~1% for the majors in FY11 and 2% in FY12. As such, RBS
Research valuation and target prices have been trimmed by roughly 1.7% on average.
Equity Structured Products and Warrants
For further information please do not hesitate to contact us on the details below
Disclaimer
The information contained in this report has been prepared by RBS Equities (Australia) Limited (“RBS Equities”) (ABN 84 002 768 701) (AFS Licence No 240530) and has
been taken from sources believed to be reliable. RBS Equities does not make representations that the information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as
such. Any opinions, forecasts and estimates contained in this report are the views of RBS Equities at the date of issue and are subject to change without notice. RBS
Equities and its affiliated companies may make markets in the securities discussed. RBS Equities, its affiliated companies and their employees from time to time may hold
shares, options, rights and warrants on any issue contained in this report and may, as principal or agent, sell such securities. RBS Equities may have acted as manager or
co-manager of a public offering of any such securities in the past three years. RBS Equities’ affiliates may provide, or have provided banking services or corporate finance to
the companies referred to in this report. The knowledge of affiliates concerning such services may not be reflected in this report. This report does not constitute an offer or
invitation to purchase any securities and should not be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment. RBS Equities, in preparing this report, has not taken into
account an individual client’s investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before a client makes an investment decision, a client should consider whether any
advice contained in this report is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. It is unreasonable to rely on any
recommendation without first having consulted with your advisor for a personal securities recommendation. The information contained in this report is general advice only.
RBS Equities, its officers, directors, employees and agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the information contained in this
report. This Information is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local
law or regulation. If you are located outside Australia and use this Information, you are responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulation. This report may
not be taken or distributed, directly or indirectly into the United States, or to any U.S. person (as defined in Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1993, as amended).
The warrants contained in this report are issued by RBS Group (Australia) Pty Limited (“RBS”) (ABN 78 000 862 797, AFS Licence No. 247013). The Product Disclosure
Statements relating to these warrants are available upon request from RBS Equities or on our website www.rbs.com.au/warrants
RBS Group (Australia) Pty Limited is not an Authorised Deposit-Taking Institution and these products do not form deposits or other liabilities of The Royal Bank of Scotland
N.V. or The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. The Royal Bank of Scotland plc does not guarantee the obligations of RBS Group (Australia) Pty Limited.
© Copyright 2009. RBS Equities. A Participant of the ASX Group.