Journal of Hydrology (2008) 359, 46 58

available at www.sciencedirect.com

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol

Impact of rainfall distribution on the

parameterisation of a soil-moisture balance model
of groundwater recharge in equatorial Africa
Lucinda Mileham a,*, Richard Taylor a, Julian Thompson a, Martin Todd a,
Callist Tindimugaya b
a
b

Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
Water Resources Management Directorate (WRMD), P.O. Box 19, Entebbe, Uganda

Received 1 November 2007; received in revised form 21 May 2008; accepted 3 June 2008

KEYWORDS
Groundwater;
Recharge;
Precipitation;
Distribution;
Africa

Robust calibration of hydrological models, driven by gridded precipitation

data derived from either Regional Climate Models or statistical downscaling of General
Circulation Models, is essential to the quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate
change on catchment hydrology and freshwater resources. Predicted warming in equatorial Africa, accompanied by greater evaporation and more frequent heavy precipitation
events, may have substantial but uncertain impacts on terrestrial hydrology. In this study,
we examine how the spatial representation of precipitation influences the parameterisation and calibration of a soil-moisture balance model (SMBM) in the humid tropics of equatorial Uganda. SMBMs explicitly account for changes in soil-moisture and partition
effective precipitation into groundwater recharge and runoff. The semi-distributed SMBM,
calibrated with daily station data over a 15 year period (19651979), estimates a mean
annual recharge of 104 mm a1 and mean annual surface runoff of 144 mm a1. Interpolation of station precipitation by inverse distance weighting produces a more uniform distribution, and a 7% increase, in mean annual catchment precipitation relative to point-based
station data. Application of interpolated (gridded), uncorrected precipitation to the SMBM
results in an underestimation of runoff and overestimation of recharge by 57% and 52%;
respectively whereas use of corrected, gridded precipitation results in an underestimation
of recharge and runoff by 10% and 64%; respectively. Recalibration of the SMBM using gridded precipitation data requires a 3% reduction in potential evapotranspiration, a 12%
increase in the runoff-coefficient, and an 18% reduction in the rainfall threshold. These
values are inconsistent with local, point-based observations of these parameters.
Although current efforts seek to improve the distribution and duration of key hydrological
Summary

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +44 207 679 0591; fax: +44 207 679 0565.
E-mail address: l.mileham@ucl.ac.uk (L. Mileham).
0022-1694/$ - see front matter 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.06.007

Impact of rainfall distribution on the parameterisation of a soil-moisture balance model

47

measurements (e.g. soil-moisture, groundwater levels) in data-poor regions, the parameterisation of gridded hydrological models remains largely empirical due to the discrepancy
between gridded and locally observed hydrological parameters.
2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Introduction
Groundwater is the primary source of freshwater for drinking and irrigation around the world. In sub-Saharan Africa,
groundwater supplies 75% of all improved (safe) sources of
drinking water (Foster et al., 2006). The impacts of climate
change on groundwater resources remain, however, very
poorly understood (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate
Change, 2001; IPCC, 2007). The analysis of the hydrological
impacts of climate change is especially important in subSaharan Africa where significant increases in water demand
are anticipated from high rates of population growth, currently 2.6% per annum (UN, 2007). At present, estimates
of freshwater resources (e.g. Shiklomanov, 2000) and predictions of freshwater resources as a result of climate
change (e.g. Kamga, 2001; Arnell, 1999, 2003; Legesse
et al., 2003; Vo
ro
smarty et al., 2005; Wit and Stankiewicz,
2006; Messager et al., 2006) are commonly defined in terms
of mean annual river discharge (runoff). Such estimates and
predictions disregard soil water processes, such as soil
water storage and evapotranspiration, despite the fact that
those factors are critical to rainfed agriculture in equatorial
Africa. Freshwater resources defined in terms of mean annual river discharge also fail to indicate the proportion of
freshwater available ephemerally in drainage channels as
stormflow (i.e. runoff) and that which is more evenly distributed in time and space as groundwater. A quantitative
understanding of the impacts of climate variability and
change on both catchment stores (i.e. soil water, groundwater) and flows (i.e. river discharge) is of critical importance
to the development of climate change adaptation
strategies.
Several studies in sub-Saharan Africa (e.g. Kamga, 2001;
Legesse et al., 2003; Messager et al., 2006) have developed
hydrological models to assess climate change impacts at the
catchment scale. None of these studies, however, explicitly
estimate the impacts of climatic change on groundwater.
Commonly, river catchments are similar or smaller than
the grid dimensions (300 km) of current General Circulation
Models (GCMs). Downscaling of GCM output is required and
generally follows one of two methodologies: (i) statistical
downscaling of GCM output using a predefined statistical
relationship (or weather generator) or (ii) dynamical downscaling using a regional climate model (RCM) nested in GCM
output. There remains, however, uncertainties about the
suitability of RCM simulated precipitation to directly drive
hydrological models especially at infra daily time-scales,
where spatial and temporal variability are less well constrained (e.g. Messager et al., 2006). Considerable uncertainty also surrounds the physical response of hydrological
systems to changes in the distribution of precipitation.
According to the IPCC (2007), an increase in the frequency
of heavy rainfall events (Trenberth et al., 2003) will lead
to a decrease in groundwater recharge in humid areas as soil

infiltration capacities are exceeded more frequently. Previous research in the humid tropics (Taylor and Howard, 1996)
shows, however, a strong, positive relationship between the
number of heavy rainfall events (> 10 mm day1) and the
magnitude of groundwater recharge. Furthermore, the
quantification of the physical response of hydrological systems to changes in precipitation distributions are vital for
future climate predictions. Delta factors derive proportional or absolute changes in baseline and future datasets
and are often applied to historical records. Such methods
have been used to examine the potential impacts of future
climate change on flooding (Crooks et al., 1996; Prudhomme
et al., 2002; Reynard et al., 2001; Schreider et al., 2000). If
baseline and future precipitation distributions are substantially different however then the use of delta factors which
maintain an historic rainfall distribution with relative
changes in the magnitude of precipitation, are likely to substantially alter predictions of the future hydraulic response.
Soil-moisture balance models (SMBMs) have a demonstrated efficacy in simulating the terrestrial water balance
in the humid tropics of Africa (e.g. Taylor and Howard,
1999a; Rushton et al., 2006). SMBMs use widely available
hydrometeorological observations (e.g. precipitation, evaporation, soil and vegetation types) and enable quantitative
assessments of the impacts of climate change and variability on basin stores (e.g. soil water, groundwater recharge)
and fluxes in data-sparse regions. Robust calibration of
SMBMs, driven by gridded precipitation data derived from
either RCMs or statistically downscaled GCMs, is essential
to the quantitative analysis of the impact of climate change
on catchment hydrology and freshwater resources.
Area averaging of precipitation events in time and space
that occurs in gridded output from climate models and gridded observational datasets (e.g. CRU2, UDEL, VASClimo), dilutes heavy or extreme precipitation events giving rise to
more moderate values (Durman et al., 2001). The conversion of rainfall measured as a finite set of points into an
average rainfall in space is subject to error because (1)
the spatial variability of rainfall has been varied out and
(2) the accuracy of the resulting average will be dependant
on the density and distribution of the rain gauge network
(Shah et al., 1996). The effects of this spatial averaging
on hydrological response are not well understood. Several
studies have assessed the high degree of sensitivity of
hydrological model simulations to the spatial and temporal
variability of rainfall input on catchment scales (Krajewski
et al., 1991; Shah et al., 1996; Koren et al., 1999; Sun
et al., 2000; Carpenter et al., 2001). A large majority of
these assessments approach this problem from the stand
point of rain gauge sampling and density focussing on a
move from coarser to finer spatial scales (Hamlin, 1983;
Krajewski et al., 1991; Duncan et al., 1993; Lopes, 1996;
Faures et al., 1995), with few studies focusing on the interpolation methods used to grid precipitation (Creutin and

48

L. Mileham et al.

Obled, 1982; Lebel et al., 1987; Ahrens, 2006). All these

studies use a combination of lumped and distributed rainfall-runoff models to assess the impacts of spatial and
temporal distribution of precipitation on runoff, and particularly peak flows and flooding, and are carried out at small
spatial scales (typically <50 km). The quantitative impact of
this spatio-temporal smoothing of precipitation on the estimation of groundwater recharge in tropical Africa has yet to
be investigated. Model calibration parameters are largely
tied to the historical rain gauge network and therefore a
direct utilisation of gridded station data cannot be made
without seeing how the model responds to precipitation
forcing at various spatial and temporal scales. In this study,
we examine how the spatial representation of precipitation
influences the parameterisation and calibration of a SMBM
of groundwater recharge and quantify its impact on groundwater recharge and river discharge in the River Mitano
catchment in south-western Uganda.

In Uganda, the dearth of substantial hydrometeorological

variables prevents application of the widely applied PenmanMonteith estimation of potential evapotranspiration
(PEt). Instead PEt is calculated from pan evaporation assuming that PEt from a moisture-rich vegetated surface is related to open-water evaporation (Epan). This parameter is,
in turn, calculated as a product of daily pan evaporation
by a pan factor as proposed by Penman (1950). In equatorial
areas, a single pan factor can be applied to the entire dataset due to the minimal seasonality in daylight hours (< 5%)
(Riou, 1984). The SMBM calculates actual evapotranspiration (AET) and the potential new SMD, where AET is calculated as a function of precipitation (P), runoff (RO),
recharge (RE), antecedent SMD (ASMD) and the actual current SMD (ACSMD) Eq. (2). A daily time-step was employed
as this is the minimum interval over which precipitation is
observed.
AET P  RO  RE  ASMD  ACSMD

Model and data

Study watershed
Soil-moisture balance model (SMBM)
SMBMs estimate direct groundwater recharge (i.e. from the
infiltration of rainfall) based on changes in soil-moisture
(Penman, 1950; Grindley, 1967). Recharge occurs when
effective precipitation (precipitation minus runoff) at the
soil surface exceeds evapotranspiration and raises the soilmoisture to field capacity. Additional inputs are considered
to pass through the soil into the underlying strata Eq. (1). A
soil-moisture deficit (SMD) exists when soil-moisture is less
than field capacity. The SMD is defined as the depth of water
required to bring the soil to field capacity. A daily time-step
is employed because the averaging of weekly and monthly
precipitation can mask daily recharge events. In a humid
temperate environment, Howard and Lloyd (1979) show that
the application of weekly and monthly time steps in SMBM
reduce estimated recharge by 10% and 25%, respectively.
RE P  RO  PEt  ASMD if P  RO  PEt > 0
and P  RO  PEt > ASMD
RE 0; if P  RO  PEt < 0; or P  RO  PEt  ASMD < 0
1
where RE: recharge, P: precipitation, RO: runoff, PEt: potential evapotranspiration and ASMD: antecedent soil-moisture deficit.
A daily rainfall threshold of 10 mm above which it is assumed interception and evaporation are overcome, and runoff occurs has previously been applied in East Africa (Taylor
and Howard, 1999a) and is employed in this study. Runoff is
calculated as a percentage of daily precipitation above this
threshold (Lerner et al., 1990). According to the SMBM,
evapotranspiration occurs at the maximum (i.e. potential)
rate until the SMD reaches the root constant (the maximum
rooting depth) which is a function of rooting depth and soil
porosity (Taylor and Howard, 1999a). Beyond this evapotranspiration continues at a reduced rate (i.e., 10% of
PEt). A SMD of a further 51 mm can develop before the wilting point (maximum SMD) is reached, beyond which no transpiration occurs (Grindley, 1967).

The River Mitano catchment, occupies an area of 2098 km2,

in south-western Uganda and is underlain by Precambrian
gneisses, schists, phyllites and granites of the Buganda
Toro formation (Fig. 1). The River Mitano drains from the
relatively high elevation peaks (2500 m above mean sea level (mamsl)) in the north of the catchment and flows in a
north-westerly direction towards the depression (graben)
containing Lake Edward (975 mamsl) in the western arm of
the East African Rift, yet greater than 85% of the basin lies
within 12502000 mamsl. The catchment lies within the inter-arch basin (Veevers, 1977), an eroded surface of variable relief drained by well incised river channels as a
result of the rejuvenation of relief in the mid-Pleistocene
(Taylor and Howard, 1998, 2000) (Fig. 1). The regolith comprises truncated weathered profiles composed primarily of
coarse, less weathered material and there are frequent
exposures of the Precambrian bedrock (Taylor and Howard,
1999b). Groundwater from the weathered overburden and
fractured bedrock discharges into the River Mitano drainage
network. High relief and incised drainage reflect a runoffdominated regime (Taylor and Howard, 1999a). Land use
is primarily agrarian (79%). Principle crops are millet, cassava, sugarcane, simsim, groundnuts, soybeans, bananas,
rice, maize, cotton, coffee, and tobacco. Grassland dominates the remainder of the catchment (17%) with small
areas of wetland (3%), forest and plantations.

Climate data sources

Precipitation data for twenty rainfall stations (19651980)
within and surrounding the River Mitano catchment and
Mbarara evaporation data (19671977) were obtained from
the Ugandan Meteorology Department. The stations were
selected due to their proximity to the catchment and duration of their records. Incomplete records were infilled using
the Climate Research Unit (CRU) 0.5 degree monthly gridded precipitation dataset for the corresponding catchment
grid cell (Mitchell et al., 2003). Monthly CRU precipitation was distributed to a daily time step using a discrete

Impact of rainfall distribution on the parameterisation of a soil-moisture balance model

Figure 1
(inset).

49

Weathered land surfaces of Uganda (adapted from Taylor and Howard, 1999a) and a drainage map of the River Mitano

distribution derived from the daily gauge (station) precipitation. The distribution is called a discrete distribution as
there are a countable number of discrete outcomes with
positive probabilities. Infilled precipitation is therefore
considered to accurately represent the magnitude and distribution of station precipitation. Less than 9% of all station
precipitation was infilled. These station data were gridded
to a 0.25 degree resolution grid using the inverse distance
weighting method. Mean monthly evaporation at Mbarara
for the period 19671977 was distributed equally throughout the month to produce daily estimates of evapotranspiration, as daily evapotranspiration data are unavailable and
seasonal variability is small.
Mean annual catchment precipitation for the period
19651979 is 1190 mm and ranges from 963 mm at Rwaishmaire (30.13E, 0.83S) in the east to 1699 mm at Sabianio (29.63E, 1.38S) in the south-west (Fig. 1). Mean
monthly precipitation exhibits a bi-modal regime with dominant modes (wet seasons) in MarchMay (MAM) and SeptemberNovember (SON) (Fig. 2a). Mean annual pan
evaporation for the period 19671977 is 1535 mm measured
at Mbarara (30.68E, 0.60S) approximately 50 km to the
east of the catchment. Monthly pan evaporation remains

relatively constant throughout the year varying by less than

15% (Fig. 2a) and exceeds precipitation in all months except
the three months of peak wet season precipitation (April,
September and November). Diurnal mean temperature
ranges between 13 C and 26 C. This range is significantly
larger than the variation (2 C) in mean monthly maximum
and minimum temperature. Discharge records for the River
Mitano basin are derived from daily stage board readings.
These readings are not affected by upstream abstractions.
Discharge records (19651979) for the River Mitano reflect
the bi-modal precipitation but lag peak precipitation by
approximately 24 weeks with a shorter lag response in
the second rainy season (SON) (Fig. 2b). Mean discharge during SON (35 m3 s1) exceeds MAM (20 m3 s1) (Fig. 2b).

Parameter estimation
The SMBM requires a series of initial parameter values that
relate to climatic conditions, land use and soil type. These
parameterisations were initially based on locally observed
hydrological parameters. The mean rooting depth of the
four vegetation types (farmland, grassland, plantation, forest) were derived from a review of rooting depths in tropical

50

L. Mileham et al.
180

Mean Monthly Evaporation 1967-1974

Mean Monthly Precipitation 1965-1979

160

Precipitation/Evaporation (mm)

140

120

100
80

60

40

20

40

13 days
35

Precipitation (mm)

23 days
6

30

25

20

15

10

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

10 Day Moving Average Precipitation 1965-1979

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

Mean Discharge 1965-1979

OCT
NOV
DEC
Mean Daily Precipitation 1965-1979

Figure 2 (a) Mean monthly Mbarara pan evaporation (19671974) and mean monthly precipitation derived from 20 rainfall
stations within and around the River Mitano catchment for the period 19651979, (b) Mean daily catchment precipitation derived
from 20 rainfall stations within and around the River Mitano catchment and mean daily discharge from the River Mitano Gauge, for
the period 19651979.

climates (Hanna, 1971; Taylor and Howard, 1999a; Schenk

and Jackson, 2002;, Breuer et al., 2003). Rooting depths
multiplied by soil porosity (0.3) provide root constants
(the maximum rooting depth) of 127 mm, 100 mm,
136 mm, and 175 mm for farmland, grassland, plantation
and forest; respectively. Porosity values representative of
the catchments sandy loam soil were obtained from the
Geological Survey and Mines Department of Uganda
(1973). The initial SMD was estimated by deriving the SMD
around which the SMBM converged after repeated runs

over the model period. In all cases, this recursive method

produced a SMD that lies approximately equidistant between the root constant and the wilting point. The pan factor, varied during calibration was initially restricted to the
range 0.60.9 in order to be consistent with observations
in equatorial Africa (Riou, 1984; Hanna, 1970; Shanin,
1985; Taylor and Howard, 1996, 1999a), whereas the other
calibration term, runoff coefficient was less well constrained due to the limited number direct field
observations.

Impact of rainfall distribution on the parameterisation of a soil-moisture balance model

0.5 S

(a)

0.5 S

51

(b)
N

N
BUSHENYI
BUGANGARI

0.75 S

RUKUNGIRI RWAISHMAIRE

1.0 S

NYARUSHANJE

1.25 S

25 km

25 km

1.25 S
Precipitation Station

29.75 E

30.25 E

29.75 E

30 E

30.25 E

Figure 3 Spatial representations of precipitation used to drive semi-distributed soil-moisture balance models based on (a)
Theissen polygons and (b) 0.25 grid. Precipitation stations outside the margins of the six grid boxes were included in the
interpolation of gridded precipitation.

Methodology
Modelling strategy
SMBM parameterisation and calibration were performed for
two model configurations for the period 19651979. The first
semi-distributed SMBM is subdivided according to observed
precipitation at five stations within the River Mitano catchment (Rukungiri, Bugangari, Rwaishmaire, Bushenyi, Nyarushanje) using Thiessen polygons (Thiessen, 1911) (Fig.
3a). These stations were selected on completeness of data,
length of record and an approximately even distribution
across the catchment. The SMBM was run individually for
each of these sub-basins allowing Hydrological Response
Units (HRU) which are defined as areas of homogenous land
surface characteristics (soil type, land use, slope) (Kite,
1995; Kouwen, 1988) to be represented within each. HRU
are based solely on landuse data as insufficient observational
data are available to justify model parameterisations for a
range of slopes. A uniform soil type is represented throughout
the catchment. The second semi-distributed SMBM was divided into six sub-basins based on the 0.25 degree grid used
to derive gridded precipitation from all 20 rainfall stations
within and around the catchment. The six grid cells were divided into HRU for modelling. This model was driven using
these gridded station precipitation data (Fig. 3b). Output
for both models was weighted to the relative proportion of
each sub-basin or grid square that lies within the catchment.

Model calibration
A comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the SMBMs parameterisation indicated that the pan factor and runoff coeffi-

cient have the strongest influence on simulated recharge

and runoff fluxes. Perturbations of 5% in pan factor and runoff coefficient led to a 20% reduction and a 40% increase in
simulated recharge and runoff respectively (Mileham,
2008). A manual calibration of the SMBM was performed that
paid particular attention to these two parameters. Rainfall
threshold was used as a calibration term for the gridded station precipitation model configuration. Initial calibration
was performed on the runoff coefficient as this is independent of the other calibration terms. Once calibrated to observed stormflow, this term was used in the calibration of
the pan factor. Recharge and runoff estimated by the SMBM
were calibrated over the period 19651979 inclusive using
estimates of basin baseflow and stormflow derived from a
hydrographic separation of river discharge. Model calibration was performed on the mean annual recharge for the entire period to take into account the time lag between
predicted recharge and baseflow (groundwater discharge).
Use of baseflow to calibrate recharge relies on the following
assumptions (1) streamflow fully penetrates the aquifer, (2)
the porous medium is isotropic and homogenous, (3) recharge occurs uniformly over the aquifer, and (4) the aquifer is underlain by impermeable rock. Many aquifers will not
meet all of these criteria, particularly on a local scale (i.e.
< 500 km2) so studies have focused on medium to large scale
basins (Mau and Winter, 1997).
To resolve (separate) baseflow from stormflow in river
discharge, the fixed-interval, sliding-interval, and localminima methods (Pettyjohn and Henning, 1979) were each
initially considered. Their reliance upon the empirical relation N = A0.2 where N is the number of days after which surface runoff ceases and A is the drainage area in square
miles,
proves
unworkable
in
large
catchments

52

L. Mileham et al.

(> 2000 km2). Baseflow is significantly overestimated as runoff from remote areas of the basin reaching the gauge at
some point after N is incorrectly assumed to be baseflow.
Even greater proportions of discharge were attributed to
baseflow (89%) when using the Nathan and McMahan
(1990) recursive digital filter often suggested for continuous
baseflow separation (Chapman, 1991). The generation of
relatively high baseflow under brief peak discharges reflects
the attribution of a proportion of both the rising and
descending limbs of the hydrograph to baseflow, with only
the hydrograph peaks being attributed to stormflow. A
graphical partitioning method (McCuen, 1989) was therefore
applied to the River Mitano catchment as it was deemed to
provide a better representation of the slow-flow component
of discharge. Using this method mean annual baseflow and
stormflow are 82 mm and 127 mm, respectively for the period 19651979.

ers 2.97 km2 and 6.09 km2, respectively, resulting in channel losses of 39 mm per annum. Incorporation of these
channel losses increases mean annual baseflow and stormflow to 104 and 144 mm per annum, respectively. Discharge
including channel losses was used for all model calibration.
Errors in discharge resulting from rating curve error were
calculated from the error in the log regression of the rating
equations and produced a lower and upper discharge estimate of 170 mm to 397 mm per annum. Model parameterisation was constrained using these upper and lower limits
of river discharge.

Channel losses

Estimates of recharge and runoff are most sensitive to the

model runoff coefficient, pan factor and the rainfall threshold before the initiation of runoff. The most sensitive model
parameter affecting the estimation of recharge is the pan
factor; a high pan factor lowers estimated recharge through
greater evaporative losses. For example, a 5% increase in
the pan factor produces a 20% reduction in modelled recharge. Initial calibration carried out against the mean annual discharge for the period 19651979 demonstrated
that a pan factor of 0.68 produced a recharge flux identical
to observed mean annual baseflow of 104 mm a1 (Table 1).
A rainfall threshold of 10 mm and a runoff coefficient of
0.16 yielded a mean annual runoff of 138 mm a1 compared
to the observed mean annual stormflow of 144 mm a1. The
SMBM is relatively sensitive to these changes (e.g. 2%
change in runoff coefficient produces a 12% change in modelled runoff).
Both the selected pan factor and runoff coefficient
fall within the parameter range previously used in this

High evaporation rates in the tropics result in significant

losses of water by evaporation from the river channel and
areas of inundated land prior to reaching the gauging station. These losses are rarely considered (e.g. Shiklomanov,
2000; Arnell, 2003) but can constitute a significant proportion of the catchment discharge. It is assumed that losses directly from the wetland/river channel occur at the
potential evapotranspiration rate (PEt) (equivalent to
open-water evaporation). Seasonally inundated areas are
assumed to contribute to channel losses during the rainy
seasons. The vegetated nature of seasonally inundated land
complicates this assumption as there is conflicting evidence
as to whether vegetation reduces (e.g., Dincer et al., 1987;
Sutcliffe and Parks, 1989; Mohamed et al, 2004) or enhances
(e.g., Kimble, 1960; Drayton et al., 1980; Faulkener and
Lambert, 1991; Stewart, 1989) evapotranspiration from
wetlands. Seasonally and permanently inundated land cov-

Results and discussion

Calibration of the semi-distributed SMBM driven by
Thiessen polygon distributed precipitation

Table 1 Soil-moisture balance modelled recharge (RE), and runoff (RO), and graphically partitioned baseflow (BF), stormflow
(SF) and measured total discharge (Q) including channel losses at the River Mitano gauge for the period 19651979 with the mean
percentage difference between modelled and measured runoff/stormflow, recharge/baseflow and discharge
Year

SMBM-RE (mm)

BF (mm)

% diff.

SMBM-RO (mm)

SF (mm)

% diff.

SMBM (RO + RE)

Q (mm)

% diff.

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
mean

95
41
54
133
41
101
70
69
78
138
228
68
115
176
146
104

106
122
72
102
84
86
89
94
82
94
88
120
131
131
140
104

11
197
34
+24
103
+15
27
36
4
+32
+62
76
14
+26
+5

132
127
113
148
117
145
139
144
124
162
171
126
140
143
146
138

114
127
125
149
109
148
137
136
107
136
218
183
181
183
125
144

+14
1
11
1
+7
2
+2
+5
+14
+16
28
46
29
29
+14

227
167
167
281
158
246
209
213
202
300
399
194
255
318
292
242

219
249
198
251
192
233
226
231
189
230
306
303
313
314
265
247

+3
49
18
+11
22
+5
8
8
+7
+23
+23
57
23
+1
+9

The SMBM is forced with theissen polygon precipitation, a rainfall threshold of 10 mm, runoff coefficient of 0.16 and a pan factor of 0.68.

Impact of rainfall distribution on the parameterisation of a soil-moisture balance model

discharge (RE+RO) / discharge (mma-1)

stormflow / runoff (mma-1)

baseflow / recharge (mma-1)

environment (Riou, 1984; Hanna, 1970; Shanin, 1985; Taylor

and Howard, 1996, 1999a). Although optimum values of 0.68
and 0.16 have been selected for the pan factor and runoff
coefficient; respectively, pan factors and runoff coefficients
ranging between 0.5 and 0.8 and 0.13 and 0.18, respectively
produce estimates of runoff and recharge within measured
discharge error. Total discharge is simulated reasonably
well on an annual basis. Differences between simulated
and observed annual river discharge range from 57% to
+23%, with a mean annual difference of +2% (Table 1)
(Fig. 4). The catchment-scale model is, nevertheless, a substantial improvement on macro-scale hydrological models
over the global domain in which differences between simu-

250

53

lated mean annual river flow range from 30% to 200% of observed values (e.g. Nijssen et al., 2001; Arnell, 2003; Milly
et al., 2005).
Annual differences between fluxes observed and estimated by the SMBM are reduced for stormflow relative to
baseflow (Table. 1). The poorer relationship between modelled recharge and graphically partitioned baseflow results
primarily from the inability to account for lag times in the
SMBM. In the model, precipitation instantaneously reduces
the SMD and any remaining infiltration is converted into recharge whereas, in reality, infiltrated rainfall can take several weeks to flow through the unsaturated zone. The
response of the aquifer in Rukungiri to predicted recharge

(a)

Modelled RE

(b)

Modelled RO

(c)

Modelled Q (RE+RO)
Measured Q+CL

Measured BF

200

150

100

50

Measured SF

200

150

100

50

350

300

250
200

150

100

50

0
1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

Figure 4 Comparison of annual modelled runoff (RO), recharge (RE) and discharge (RE plus RO) against graphically partitioned
baseflow (BF), stormflow (SF) and measured discharge plus channel losses (Q + CL) from 1965 to 1979.

54

L. Mileham et al.

events from September 2001 to September 2002 shows a lag

time of approximately 2 weeks (Fig. 5).
Calibration of modelled recharge to baseflow needs to be
considered on longer than annual time-scales to address issues regarding lag responses. Daily recharge events will
merge as they pass through the unsaturated zone to produce
seasonal recharge responses in the aquifer, and it is these
seasonal patterns that can be observed in modelled baseflow. The variability in aquifer response times is illustrated
by the time required for hydraulic head (water levels) in a
groundwater system to approach equilibrium following a
hydraulic perturbation, such as well pumping or a recharge
event. The time taken for water to travel through the system is different from the hydraulic response time to approach equilibrium and depends on the spatial and
temporal gradients of hydraulic head, hydraulic conductivity, and porosity of the system (Alley et al., 2002). The
hydraulic response time in the Mitano basin is in the order
of 2 weeks (Fig. 5) whereas groundwater residence times
in the same catchment lie predominantly between 11 and
46 years (Tindimugaya, 2007). The response of baseflow to
a hydraulic perturbation is controlled by pressure gradients

within the system that transfer the localised recharge response to the discharge zone. Limited knowledge of the
aquifer system and a lack of sustained measurements of
hydraulic head prevent an accurate calculation of this response time, however, lag times between modelled recharge and graphically partitioned baseflow suggest a
response time of between 2 and 6 months. Calibration of
modelled recharge was, therefore, conducted for the mean
annual recharge and runoff for the entire model period
(19651979).
The annual comparison between observed stormflow
(resolved from baseflow) and simulated runoff is made
easier by the comparatively short time lags (26 weeks)
that occur between precipitation and discharge (Fig. 2b).
A more accurate representation of lag times is inhibited
by the inability of a single precipitation input to represent
the runoff response for a large sub-basin. Instead individual runoff events are lost as they combine in the seasonal
response. Although stormflow can be accurately modelled
on a seasonal basis, this study suggests that model calibration should be conducted on annual rather than a seasonal or monthly basis to account for lag times between

60

163 mm

120 mm

20 days

Start of Abstraction

Water Levels

Recharge

11

17 days

50
13

15

Recharge (mm.d-1)

40

17

Pumping Test
30

19
204 mm
50 mm
21

20

23
10
25

8 mm

JUN 2005

MAR 2005

DEC 2004

SEP 2004

JUN 2004

MAR 2004

DEC 2003

SEP 2003

JUN 2003

MAR 2003

DEC 2002

SEP 2002

JUN 2002

MAR 2002

SEP 2001

DEC 2001

27

Figure 5 Modelled recharge at Rukungiri Town in the River Mitano basin and groundwater levels for the period September 2001 to
September 2002.

Impact of rainfall distribution on the parameterisation of a soil-moisture balance model

modelled runoff and recharge and hydrographically separated discharge. Overall, the SMBM provides a full account
of the basins water resource and can be calibrated to
discharge data to a reasonable degree of accuracy demonstrating its efficacy in data sparse catchments of East
Africa.

Running the calibrated SMBM with gridded

precipitation
The gridded precipitation derived from the 20 rainfall stations within and around the catchment, was specified as input to the calibrated SMBM. Interpolation of point-based
(station) precipitation over the 15 year period (1965
1979) results in a 7% increase in mean annual catchment
precipitation. Application of this uncorrected, gridded precipitation to the calibrated SMBM underestimates mean annual runoff by 57% and overestimates mean annual
recharge by 52%. Discrepancies in model output arise from
the more uniformly distributed nature of the gridded precipitation data compared to that of point-based (station)
precipitation (Fig. 6). Gridding of point-based precipitation
gives rise to (1) a reduction in the frequency of zero rain
days and small (<1 mm) precipitation events, (2) an increase in the frequency of medium (26 mm) precipitation
events, and (3) a decline in the frequency of large
(>10 mm) precipitation events (Fig. 6). This pattern varies
little throughout the year. The magnitude of runoff is substantially reduced due to fewer events exceeding the rainfall threshold, whilst the increases in recharge are likely to
occur for the increase in absolute precipitation, accompanied by greater infiltration. Interpolated catchment precipitation, uniformly corrected for the 7% increase in total
precipitation derived from interpolation, underestimates
mean annual recharge and runoff by 10% and 64%; respectively. It is evident that these errors are solely the result of
changes in the precipitation distribution as there is no
change in the mean annual values. This highlights the
importance of precipitation distribution on generation of
SMBM recharge and runoff.

55

Calibration of the semi-distributed SMBM driven by

gridded station precipitation
Differences in the daily distribution of precipitation required substantial alterations to the parameterisation of
the SMBM in order to effectively represent observed runoff
(stormflow) and recharge (baseflow). The discrepancy in results when applying gridded precipitation data to the SMBM
calibrated using point-based preciptiation necessitated recalibration. Initial calibration maintaining a rainfall threshold of 10 mm required a reduction in the pan factor to 0.66
and an increase in the runoff coefficient to 0.37. These substantial changes in runoff coefficient and pan factor are primarily the result of maintaining the rainfall threshold at
10 mm. The process of gridding precipitation reduces the
frequency of precipitation extremes (>10 mm) observed at
individual stations. The resulting reduction in the magnitude
of the differences between precipitation and the evaporative flux significantly alters recharge and runoff which rely
on precipitation events exceeding the rainfall threshold.
Consequentially further calibration included modifications
to the rainfall threshold. The rainfall threshold was changed
to 8.25 mm so that equivalent proportions of precipitation
events were greater than the precipitation threshold in both
the point and gridded precipitation datasets.
The optimum parameter values for the gridded SMBM
were a pan factor of 0.66, a runoff coefficient of 0.285
and a rainfall threshold of 8.25 mm, producing a mean annual recharge of 107 mm and a mean annual runoff of
144 mm, in comparison to the 104 mm, and 144 mm derived
from graphical partitioning of discharge data. Calibration of
the gridded precipitation SMBM therefore requires a 3%
reduction in potential evapotranspiration and a 12% increase in the runoff coefficient coupled with the lower
(18%) rainfall threshold in comparison to point-based precipitation SMBM parameterisation. The evenly distributed
nature of gridded precipitation requires the calibration process to be largely empirical as parameterisation of the rainfall threshold, runoff coefficient and pan factor all lay
outside of locally observed parameter values.

10 4
GRIDDED STATION

frequency

10

STATION

10 2

10 1
10 0

1
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

precipitation (mm.d-1)
Figure 6

Frequency distribution of daily gridded precipitation and station precipitation for the period 19651979.

56

L. Mileham et al.

Table 2 Optimum parameter values used for calibration of the Theissen distributed precipitation and gridded precipitation
distribution SMBM and the range of observed values which have been used in the tropics for each of the model parameters and
mean annual modelled recharge and runoff and observed baseflow, stormflow and discharge for the period 19651979
Parameter

P (Thiessen)

P (Gridded)

Observed

Rainfall threshold (mm)

Pan factor
Runoff coefficient
Recharge (RE) (mm)
Runoff (RO) (mm)
Discharge (RE + RO) (mm)

10
0.68
0.16
104
138
242

8.25
0.56
0.285
107
144
251

10a
0.750.90b
0.100.50c
104
144
248

a
b
c

Taylor and Howard (1999a).

Riou (1984), Dagg and Blackie (1965), Hanna (1970, 1971), Edwards and Wawera (1979) and Shanin (1985).
Lvovich, (1979), Temple (1972), Descheemaeker et al. (2006), Finkel (1987), Ashton (2002) and Rushton et al. (2006).

Impact of rainfall distribution on SMBM

The differences in model calibration between gridded and
point-based precipitation datasets are primarily the result
of a significantly different distribution of precipitation as
a result of the interpolation of point observations. Inherent
smoothing of individual precipitation events into a mean
grid square precipitation significantly increase the number
of small (<10 mm) precipitation events whilst significantly
reducing the number of large (>10 mm) precipitation
events (Fig. 6). The overall result is substantially increased
groundwater recharge and substantially reduced runoff.
Changes in the distribution of precipitation have a significant impact on the calibration of the SMBM. Revised values
for the pan factor, runoff coefficient and rainfall threshold
are inconsistent with field observations (Table 2). The significant modification of model parameterisation highlights
the critical need to calibrate hydrological models for different spatial and temporal distributions in precipitation.
The SMBM is versatile and can be easily calibrated to represent the various distributions of precipitation. It is
important to recognise that the scale at which precipitation is distributed determines whether the parameterisation of hydrological models is empirical or constrained by
field observations.

Conclusions
Spatial representations of precipitation in the humid tropics
of Africa strongly influence the estimation of the terrestrial
water balance. The dilution of heavy or extreme precipitation events that results from the interpolation of point
observations of precipitation (station data), favours evapotranspiration and systematically underestimates runoff,
whilst overestimating recharge due to an absolute increase
in precipitation. A semi-distributed, soil-moisture balance
model (SMBM) of the River Mitano catchment in south-western Uganda, calibrated with daily station records of precipitation over a 15 year period (19651979) using Thiessen
polygons for the entire catchment, provides estimates of
mean annual recharge of 104 mm a1 and mean annual surface runoff of 144 mm a1. Interpolation of point-based
(station) precipitation over the 15 year period (1965
1979) results in a 7% increase in mean annual catchment

precipitation. Application of this uncorrected, gridded precipitation to the calibrated SMBM underestimates mean annual runoff by 57% and overestimates mean annual recharge
by 52%. Corrected interpolated precipitation underestimates recharge and runoff by 10% and 64%, respectively,
as a result of changes in daily precipitation distribution.
Recalibration of the SMBM using gridded precipitation requires substantial alterations to SMBM parameterisation
including a 3% reduction in potential evapotranspiration, a
12% increase in runoff coefficient and a 18% reduction in
rainfall threshold that are inconsistent locally observed
hydrological parameters. As a result, hydrological models
driven by gridded precipitation remain largely empirical.
The study clearly highlights the dependence of the calibration of hydrological models on the spatial and temporal representation of precipitation.

Acknowledgements
The present work was supported by a Natural Environmental
Research Council (NERC) PhD Studentship (Ref. NER/S/A/
2004/12194) to Mileham at University College London and
a Grant from the START Secretariat (Ref. 202 457 5859) to
Taylor and Dr. Charles Basalirwa (Makerere University).
The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the
Water Resources Management Department (WRMD), Uganda
and Leo Mwebembezi, in particular, as well as David Plinston for his valuable insight and assistance during this study.

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