p.

Has the West Lost the Post-Cold War Era?

[music]
Amb.KurtVolker:IstheUnitedStateslosingthepostColdWar?Thinkaboutthatfor
amoment.TheColdWar,goingfromtheendofWorldWarIIuntilabout1989or1991,
thatwasaprettydefinedtimeperiod.WehadastandoffwiththeSovietUnion.Wehada
collapseoftheSovietUnion,thefalloftheBerlinWall.
Wehadsocietiesembracedemocracy[inaudible0:57],jointheEuropeanUnionandjoin
NATO.Therewasasense,asFrancFukuyamafamouslywroteabout,thatthiswasthe
endofhistory.Democracy,marketeconomy,andthesevalueshavewonout.
25,26yearslaterwhenyoulookaroundtheworldtoday,youseethingslikeISISandour
havingtodealwiththisgrowingcollapseoftheMiddleEast,andthegrowing
phenomenonofIslamistextremismandviolence,thereturnofdictatorshipsintheMiddle
East.YouseePutinwithanauthoritarianRussiathat'sinvadingitsneighbors.Yousee
ChinamilitarilyassertingitsclaimstotheSouthChinaSea.
Youhavetoaskyourself,"Isallthisgoingright?Didwereallywin,ordidwewinonly
tolose?"That'sthequestionwe'reteeingupwithtonight'sdebate.Totacklethisquestion
wealwaysdividepeopleintotwoteams.Iwillbehonestwithyoufromtheoutset.We
deliberatelyteeupablackandwhiteprovocativequestion.Yesorno,arewelosing?
Therealityisthatanyseriouspersonthatwecouldeverputinoneofthesedebatessees
nuances.They'llseesomethingonthisside,somethingonthatside.Itwillnotbeasblack
andwhiteapresentationasthequestionimplies,butwehaveorganizedpeopletotryto
makethecaseofhowwecanthinkaboutthis.Arewe,infactlosing?Arewe,infact,not
losing?
Thefirstteam,thosewhowillbemakingtheargumentthat,infact,theUnitedStatesis
reallylosingthepostColdWarafterhavingwontheColdWarareMarkMoyarandDJ
Peterson.MarkMoyarisaveteranofRANDCooperation.AtSOCOMhe'sworkedwith
GeneralMcChrystal.
Heisanauthor,andhehaswrittenthisbookcalled"StrategicFailure,"whichishow
PresidentObama'sdrugwarfare,defense[inaudible2:56],andmilitaryamateurismhave
imperiledAmerica.Nodoubtwhereheiscomingfrom.
[laughter]
Amb.Volker:ThatistotakethecasetogetherwithDJPetersonwhoislocalandmaybe
knowntomanyofyou.HeiswithLongviewAdvisorsandformerlywithEurasiaGroup
andformerlywithRANDCorporation.Takessomethingmoreofaneconomicapproach

p.2

andtakessomethingmoreofaprivatesectorandbusinesslookatwhat'shappeninginthe
world,butalsomakingthecasethat,infact,thingsarenotgoingourway.
Ontheoppositesideoftheequation,wehavetwopeoplewhoIhaveknown,Ithinkin
thecaseofKoriit'snowborderingon27yearsandinthecaseofJimFoleywe're
probablylookingat21or22.Theseareoldfriendsfromdifferentwalksoflife.
Kori,ImetwhenshewasworkingatJointStaff,workingwiththemilitaryin1988and
'89,andwewereworkingtogetherontheCFEtreaty.Shehasgoneontoanillustrious
careerinmany,manythings.Sheisanauthorinherownright,ofcourse,butshehasalso
beenaprofessoratWestPoint,aprofessorattheUniversityofMaryland.
ShewastheDirectorforDefenseIssuesattheNationalSecurityCouncilatatimewhenI
wasdoingEuropeanissues.SheisnowattheHooverInstitutionatStanfordUniversity.
ShewastheDefensePolicyAdvisorfortheMcCaincampaignin2008.Sheisa
wellknownexpertondefenseissues.She'llbemakingthecasethatnotsofast,we'restill
theUnitedStates.
JimFoleyisanoldfriendandcolleagueaswell.JimwasintheForeignServicefor,he
said,32years,whichmakesmefeelbetternow.ThelastfewtimesI'vebeenintroduced
topeopleIsaidI'vebeendoingforeignpolicyfor30years,andthat'sthefirstI'veever
heardthat30number.Tosaysomebodyelsehasdoneitfor32is[inaudible4:56].
JimwasinthePhilippines.HewasinAlgeria.HewasambassadortoHaiti.Hewas
ambassadortoCroatia.HewasprocessingIraqirefugeesandasylumseekersastheywere
comingoutofIraqduringouroccupationofIraq.HewastheDeputySpokesmanofthe
StateDepartment.Ithinkhecomeswithawealthofexperienceaboutourcountry'srole
intheworld,howwedothings,andwhatwecanthinkaboutlookingforwardtointhe
future.
[crosstalk]
Dr.KoriSchake:Ifeellikethat'sathumbonthescale.
Amb.Volker:That'sthestructureoftonight'sdebate.Iamdelightedthatallofyou
cametohearthistonight.Wearealsolivewebcastingthis,anditwillbeavailableonline
aswell.OurwebsiteisMcCainInstitute.org.
Ihavetosayyoudon'tlooklikeatweetingaudience,butifyouare,thehashtagis
#midebate.Itdoesstimulatealittlebitofcommentaryonlinethatwecanreferbacktoas
well.
Thestructureofthedebateisfourminutes'introductionfromeachsidemakingacase,
twominutesfromeachsiderespondingtothatcase,andIasmoderatorwillstartaskinga
fewquestionsandtrytodrawthemintoadebatewitheachother.
ThenI'llturntoyou,theaudience,toaskquestionsaswell.Ihopethatwewillhavesome

p.3

thoughtfulandinsightfulandprovocativequestionsfromyou,membersoftheaudience.
TheonethingIwouldaskisthatwhenwecometothequestionsfromtheaudienceto
pleasebebriefandpleasebepointedinyourquestions,sothatwecangetthemostoutof
hearingfromourdebateresponsestage.
WiththatI'mgoingtoopenitupandturntoourfirstteamofMarkandDJ,toanswerthe
question.IstheUSlosingthepostColdWar?
Dr.DJPeterson:Thanks,Ambassador.IthinkmostAmericansbelieveinfact,70
percentofAmericansbelievetheUSislosing.Ithinksoit'saprettyclearcase.I'dliketo
argueonthreepoints.Oneisgeopolitics,secondiseconomics,thirdisdomesticpolitics.
Geopolitics.Obviously,wecouldlookatwhat'sgoingonthisweekinParisverytragic
butalsoveryalarming.Ithinkoneofthekeylessonsformeisthepaceofinnovation
interrorism.WethoughtalQaedawasbad.
ButISISismuchdifferent.Theirabilitytorecruit,toraisemoney,torunastateis
somethingthattheUSisjustnotwellequippedtocompetewith.IfyoulookattheUS
apocalypticmillenariandeathcult,we'reanenlightened,Candideorientedsociety.We
wanttothinkaboutthepositivesandlifeishappyandgood.Ithinkwe'rehavingreal
troublefighting,matching,thisdeathcult.
That'sterrorism.LookatRussia.Theirmissiontodayistoreasserttheirrightfulplacein
theworld,somethingtheyhadforhundredsofyears.Wearenotpreparedtofightthat
battle.RussiansarebehindPutin.Thisisanationalmission.
ThesamewithChina.It'scalledtheEastChinaSea.It'stheSouthChinaSea.It'snotthe
EastandWestAmericanSea.Thattheyfeelisrightfullytheirs.They'rebuildingislands,
they'rebuildinglandingstripsfortheirairplanes.Howarewereallygoingtocompete
withthem?Wedon'thavetheguts.Wedon'thavetheabilitytomountthenavy.
Lookateconomics.Ifwethinkabouteconomicsandhowcountriesprojectpowerit's
throughtrade.ChinatwoyearsagoeclipsedtheUnitedStatesastheworld'slargest
tradingnation.Whocallstherules?IP,intellectualpropertyprotections.Cyber.They're
settingtherulesoftrade.Now,thetradeagreementwehaveinthePacificisquaint,but
really,arewegoingtobeabletoshapeimplementation?No.
Ithinktherulesoftheroadinthefutureeconomicallyarefundamentallynotoursto
control.Ifyouthinkaboutit,weshapedtherulesinthepostwarera.Todaywedon't.
Finally,Iwanttojustturntopolitics.Ifyouthinkabouthowthisnationderivesits
strengthit'sthroughdomesticpolitics.Congressisthegreatestlegislativeinstitutionin
theworld.That'swhattheyliketosaybutweknowit'snot.It'safarce.Everybodysees
thatourcountryisparalyzedpolitically.We'reverypolarized.Ithinktheambassador
rightlypointedoutwe'remoreaboutfightingeachotherthanthinkingabouttheglobal
challengesthattheUnitedStatesfaces.

p.4

Wecan'tmusterarealisticdefensebudget.Wecan'tmusterthekindofinternational
foreignaidthatweneedortheprogramsthatweneedtoprojectAmericanpower.We're
reallyfightingwitheachotherandit'sbasedonpoliticalparalysis.I'llstopthere.
Dr.MarkMoyar:Certainly,therearebroadtrendsthattheUnitedStatesdoesn'thave
fullcontrolover,butinthepost9/11eraIwouldargueastheworld'sgreatestpower,
we'vehadtoalargeextenttheabilitytoforgeourdestiny.TheBushadministration
certainlymadesomemajorerrors.Inthetimewehavehere,I'mgoingtofocusjustonthe
morerecenteventswiththeObamaadministration.
Idothinkthereweredecisionsmadebythisadministrationthataccountheavilyforthe
currentproblemswehave.TheproblemsIseewiththecurrentadministration'sproblem
wasthedecisiontowithdrawfromalotofmilitarycommitments,adecisiontocutthe
defensebudget,andadecisiontotrytofindsubstitutesformilitarypower,suchas
surgicalstrikes,developmentassistance,anddiplomacy.Noneofthosehaveworkedout
verywell.
IfyoulookatsomeofthemajorproblemareasIraq,Ithinkin2009itwasfairlystable
atthe[inaudible10:59]fordisintegration,riseofISIS.IncaseofSyria,wehadachoice
tosupportSyria'srebelsandwedidn'tdoso.Weranoutoftimetosupportthem.There's
alototherplaces[inaudible11:15]gointo.
[inaudible11:19]intermsofinRussiaandChina,wehavestrongandreally[inaudible
11:26]andwe'veallowedourRussiaandChinateaminitiativeonalotofissues.There's
alotof[inaudible11:31]gravitatingtowardsChinaandRussia,whichintheUnited
Stateshasmoreorlessalreadyinthebackthatwearelosinginfluencetothosecountries
isanindicationofhowmuchwe'readvocating.
Idon'tthinkthesituationisirreversible,butcertainlythepresidentialleadershipneedsto
changefundamentallyforittoturnthingsaround.
Amb.Volker:I'mgoingtobeturningaudiencebackhere.Jim,letmeturnthattoyouto
start,andthenKori.Itsoundspretty[inaudible12:03].
Amb.JamesFoley:I'mgoingtoanswerthequestionthatwasput,whichisarewe
losingthePostColdWar,notarewewinningPostColdWar.Differentquestion,
differentanswer.There'snoquestionthatUSinfluenceintheworldisonthedecline
comparedtotheColdWar,comparedtotheimmediateaftermathoftheColdWar,the
socalledunipolarmomentandourabilitytoshapemuchlessdominatetheworldisnot
whatitwas.It'snotwhatitwas15yearsago.It'swhatitwas20yearsago.
Partofthatwasdue,Iwouldargue,toourinvasionofIraq,whichturnedintoaquagmire,
whichdepletednotonlyourresources,ourtreasurebutalsothepublic'sappetitefor
Americanengagementintheworld,withmeanwhileChinabenefitingverymuchasit
risesinpower.

p.5

Fundamentallythough,thisdeclineinUSpowerinfluencewasinevitableandis
structural.It'sduetotheradicallychangingconfigurationofpowerintheworld,thefact
thatwearenowinamultipolarworldwithmanynewrivalpowers,withmultiplying
threats.It'saworldthat'smuchharderforanyonetocontrol.It'saworldthatinmany
waysisseeminglyrunningoutofcontrol.
Inthatcontext,Iwouldsaythoughthatlosingimpliesthatthere'sawinner.Idon'tsee
someonebeatingusintheColdWar.Ourrivals,ChinaandRussia,haveenormous
problems.Theyfacethesamecomplexity,buttheyhavebiggerliabilities.Theylack
someoftheinherentadvantagesthatwehave.Whetherwearedrawingonthese
advantagesaswellaswecouldagainisanotherquestion.
Thefactthatweenjoythesecurityofourgeographythatwehavefriendlyneighbors,that
wehavestrongpartnershipsandalliancesandafundamentallystrongeconomymakes
for,asIsaid,advantagesthatothers,ourrivals,don'thave.
Finally,Iwouldsaythatinrelationtothemultiplyingthreatsintheworldthere,Iwould
sayweemphasizedthatwearenotwinning.IseethatandIwouldechomycolleague,
we'retheadversaryinthis.Iseethismoreasafunctionofourdomesticproblems.Our
inadequateleadershipinresponsetomanyofthesethreatswhichagainourcolleagues
havehighlightedreallyinmyviewhasfundamentallydomesticroutes.Ihopewecome
tothatlateron.
Dr.Schake:Oneofthepleasuresofbeingahistorianof19thcenturyAmericais
realizingthatwe'renotmerelyacountryfullofcrazy,disputatiouspeoplerunby
meddlingpoliticians.That'swhatwe,theUnitedStates,havealwaysbeen.
Veryoften,thesediscussionsaboutAmericaindeclineandwhetherAmericaislosingthe
ColdWar,whetherAmericaislosingthePostColdWar,theytakethepresentand
projectitintothefuture.
Iwouldliketosuggesttoyouthatactually,thegreatdynamismandsuccessoftheUnited
Statesisthatyouveryrarelycanmakelinearprojectionsfromustothefuturebecause
whatweareispeoplewhooverturntheeconomywithnewmodels,sometimes
catastrophicmodelsforexampleonhousingfinanceintheearly2000s.
ThedynamismofAmericansocietyandtheverydisputatiousnessthatweveryoftenare
sorrowfulabackinourpoliticaldiscoursearehowwegettotherightanswer.There'sa
magnificentarticle.
MyfavoritethingeverwrittenaboutAmericanForeignPolicyisbythejournalist,James
Fallows.ItwaswhenhecamebackfrombeingthecorrespondentinChina.It'saboutthe
roleoftheJeremiahthenAmericanForeignPolicy.RememberthebookofJeremiah
fromtheTorah,theBible.Thenotionisthatwealwaysthinkwe'refailing.Wealways
thinkwe'refallingapart.Wealwaysthinkwe'rebadatthings.That'sactuallyhowwefix
things.

p.6

IfyouthinkabouttwopointsintimewhentheUnitedStateswasconsideredatthezenith
ofitspower,let'stake1954,Americastillhadsomethinglike30percentofglobalGDP
comingoutofWorldWarII.WewererebuildingEuropeinourimage.Yet,the101st
airbornewasnottraining.TheywereforciblyintegratingschoolsintheAmericanSouth.
TheMcCarthyhearingsweregoingonwhereCongresswasclaimingthatthearmywas
staffedwithtraitors.Weoverestimatejusthowwonderfulthepastwas.Therewasthis
mythicdaywherepoliticsstoppedatthewater'sedgeandwewereciviltoeachother.We
neverwere.
Let'stake1973,anotherpointintimeinwhichpeoplethoughtthatUnitedStateswasthe
zenithofitspower.That'sthemiddleoftheVietnamWar.NoteventheBritishwould
fightthatalongsideus.Wewerefightingitinawaythatwecastalongshadowof
AmericaandAmericans'willingnesstoshapetheinternationalorder.
Amb.Volker:We'regoingtoleaveitthere.IwanttobringitbackthentoMarkandDJ.
Basically,it'salwayslikethis.Theworldcomesandgoes.We'refine.Jim,[inaudible
18:02]?
Amb.Foley:I'll,again,takealittlebitmoreofastructuralpointofview.It'swonderful.
Welovetodispute.Welovedemocracy.Welovetheabilitytoponderideas.ISISisnot.
They'rerunningfastforward.Ifyoulookattheworldtoday,thepacehavechangedinthe
challengesthatwe'refacing,whetherit'sterrorism,whetherit'scyber.
EverybodyItalktointhebusinesstheysay,"It'sgettingworseandwedon'thavea
solution.It'sgoingtogetworse."Ifyoulookatclimate,itseemslikewedithering.We're
enjoyingthedebateorwe'rethinkingaboutentertainmentontelevisionandenjoyingthat
disputatiousness,butreallynotwatchingtheworldmoveonorslipbyus.
Dr.Moyar:Iwanttocommenton[inaudible18:57]pointsthatadversariesherewere
raisingaboutthepublicwillbecauseIdothinkit'sfundamentaltothisquestion.
Certainly,theinvasionofIraqdidnotturnoutaspeoplewanted.Ithink[inaudible19:15]
strategicallywisethingtodo.
Ifyoulookbacktothe2008election,PresidentObamawasactuallyrunningona
platformofincreasingthewarinAfghanistan.Weneedtobearinmindtherethatthe
Americanpeopledohavesomeresilience.Ifyoulookbackduringthesurge,therewerea
lotofpeoplesayingthatIraqwarhadbeenlostandyetPresidentBushdecidedtoput
moretroopsin.Itturnedouttoworkprettywell.
Eveninthe2012presidentialdebatewhenRomneyarguedthatObamagotthemilitary.
ObamaassuredtheAmericanpeopletheywerenotgoingtoletsequestration[inaudible
19:54].Ifyoulookatourmilitaryspendingtoday,lessthanfourpercentofGDPis
actuallyhistoricallyquitelowandyetalotofpeoplethinkthishasbecomevery
expensive.

p.7

Wecertainlyhavetheresourcestodoit.Thereisbroaderquestionofwheredothe
Americanpeoplewanttogo.Certainly,youseethesetrendsinisolationism.Youcould
make[inaudible20:15]aswell.Theisolationismweseerightnowis[inaudible20:19].
I'mhopingthat'sthecase.I'mnottotallysurethatitisthough.Thereisadanger.
Certainly,oneofdiscussion[inaudible20:30]thisthemillennialgeneration,arethey
reallyturningtoisolationism?Somebodywillthinkthatcertainlyisthecase.They're
verylibertarianorientedandtheyreallydon'tcarewhat'sgoingoninothercountries.
Amb.Volker:We'regoingtopauseitthere.Iwanttocomebacktothissidenow.Here's
thewayIwantto[inaudible20:52].IwanttotakeKori'sstartingpointwhichiswe're
disputatiouspeople.Wealwaysfeellikewe'redoingworsethanwe'redoingwell.Isn't
thisactuallyreallydifferentone?
Isitwhatwe'reseeingwithISISandtheideologicalissuesdifferent?Isn'twhatwe're
seeingwithChinadifferent?Putinisjusticingonthecake.Maybehe'snotdifferent.
That'sontopofalltheseotherthings.
Dr.Schake:IwanttostartbyaddressingDJ'sverygoodpointaboutstructuralfactors.
Asthewaytheinternationalorderischanging,globalizationstampedingprogress,the
advancesincommunication.Governmentsusedtohaveamonopolyoninformation.No
governmentcanbelievethattheydoanymore.Thewaythatfreemarketshaveadvanced
toliftabillionpeopleoutofpovertyisamagnificentadvance.
ThequestionthatIwouldchallengeourcolleagueswithisthestructuralfactorsthatyou
thinkaresodamagingtotheAmericaneconomyandadvantageous,forexample,to
China.CanChinacontinuetoseethekindofgrowththathaswithoutthekindofpolitical
openingthathasmadeprogresssustainableinothersocieties?
BeforeIletyouanswerthough,Iwanttosaythatifyouthinkaboutthewaytechnology
isadvancing,communicationisadvancing,travelisadvancing,whatthatdoesis
advantagesocietieswhocanmanagechange.Theadaptablesocietiesaretheoneswho
areprosperinginthis.
Chinaisanadaptablesociety.Thereisnosocietyasadaptableasus.Thechallengesthat
DJrightlyraises,ISIS,Russia,thesearethechallengesofsocietiesthatarefailingat
adaptationtohowtheinternationalorderischanging.Wedefinitelyneedtodealwith
those.Thelongtermstructuraleffectsareactuallyadvantagingthoseofuswhocanadapt
tochangingcircumstances.ThatisAmerica'sgreatstrength.
Amb.Volker:Let'sstickwiththatpointbeforewegettoJim.We'llcomebacktoyou
foranotherthing.Iwanttocontinuewiththefirstquestionthen.Thispointof
adaptability,thisissomethingthatwejustmadeastrongcasewheretheUnitedStatesis
goingtobethebestatthis.
EventhoughwehaveISIS,eventhoughwehaveChina,we'renotlosing,we'rejust

p.8

seeingchange.Intheend,we'regoingtobethesocietythat'sdoingthebest.Howdoyou
disagreewiththat?
Amb.Foley:Thispieceofadvancedtechnologyisreallyinteresting.Atmylastreportat
RANDwasontheinformationrevolutioninRussia.Thebigconclusionthatwefound
wasthatRussiagottheInternetinthefirstpartofthiscentury.Russiansarevery
adaptingusingtheInternet.Atthesametime,yousawriseofPutinortheconsolidation.
Theyknowwhat'sgoingonintheworld,buttheywanttobeastrongpower.The
Chinese,there'shundredsofmillionsofpeopleontheInternetinChina.Whattheywant
isastrongChina.TheywantaChinathatchallengesUnitedStatesandmakesChinathe
greatestnationintheworld.
Dr.Schake:That'snottheonlythingtheywant.300,000Chinesestudentsareat
Americanuniversitieseverysingleyear.Theyprobablydon'tgohomehopingtheir
congressbehaveslikeourcongress.Theyprobablydogohome,atleastsomeofthem,
wishingtheyhadagovernmenttheycouldthrowoutofpowerwhentheydon'tlikethe
foodsafetyprotections,whentheydon'tlikethebuildingcodesthatallowsschoolsto
collapseonchildren.
It'spoisonbabymilkthat'sgoingtobringdowntheChinesegovernmentbecausethey
don'thaveawaytoadaptandaddressthosethingsinawayfreesocietiesdo.
Dr.Moyar:Iwasgoingtocommenttoo.10yearsago,thereseemedamuchgreater
degreeofinevitability[inaudible25:11].Unfortunately,partlybecausetheUnitedStates,
it'sbeenineffectiveatpromotingdemocracy,thereisasensewithinmuchoftheworld
thatdemocracywasn'tquiteasgreatas[inaudible25:25]tobe.
Ifyougointoalotofunderdevelopedcountries,theyactuallyfindtheChinesemodel
attractivebecauseChinesehadthesecond[inaudible25:34]growthwithout
globalization.
Hopefully,Chinawillmoveinthedirectionofkeepingthat.I'mnotsurethatit's
inevitable.Thisis[inaudible25:44]wheretheUnitedStatesislosingisthatthere'sno
longerthesenseofmuchoftheworldthattheUnitedStateswayisthewaytogoandwe
allneedtofollow.There'salotoflackofconfidenceinourmodel.
Amb.Volker:Thisisagreatpoint.IwanttobringJiminnow.You'regoingtomake
anotherpointbutparticularlywhatMarkissayingaboutthebeliefintheinevitabilityof
westernlocalvaluesversusonthegroundevidenceofretreatintheeffectivenessof
implementationofthesevaluesaroundtheworld[inaudible26:19]lastnineyearssaying
democracyisretreating.Arewelosingthisbecauseofideologyandwill?
Amb.Foley:We'velearnedsomeveryhardlessonsespeciallyinrecentyearsabouthow
difficultitistoplantthedemocraticseedaroundtheworld.Wehavemuchmore
developedrespectforthefactthatdemocracyistheproductofdecadesandmaybe

p.9

centuriesofevolution.
Totieoursenseofsuccessintheworldtothisbarometerwhichcangoupanddown,let's
add,we'rehadsomesignificantsuccessesandadvancesindemocracyespeciallyin
EasternEuropeinthelastdecades.MypointIalludedtoisthatitisthehealthofourown
democracy,whichisthemostimportantfactor.
It'sthestrengthofourowncountryandourowninstitutions,whichunderpinour
security,ourabilitytorespondtosecuritychallengesaroundtheworld,whichisthe
ultimatetest.That'swherewearenotmeetingourpotentialfarfromit.
Themostimportantfactorinenhancingoursecurityandultimatelywinningthe
PostColdWarisaddressingthedysfunctionthatwe'vebeentalkingaboutonthestage
here,athomeevenrecognizingthatwe'vealwaysbeenrambunctious.
IbelievethoughthatthelevelofdysfunctiondomesticallyintheCongressinWashington
ishavingaveryinjuriouseffect.IsaythatasaformerandrecentAmericanambassador.
Indeed,itisanimportantpartofourdiplomacytorepresentourdemocraticideals.We
arenotinquitethesamepositiontodosothanwewereinprevioustimes,sadly.
Amb.Volker:I'mgoingtothrowthisquestiontoKori,stayingonthissideofstory.
Let'sgotoEurope.We'vehadinthelast5to10years,we'veseenRussiainvadeGeorgia.
We'veseenRussiainvadeUkraine.We'veseenthechainofordersarmyforce.We've
seenthem[inaudible28:44].
We'veseenthemtossoverboardtheCFEtreatythatyouandIworkedon.We'veseen
themtossoverboardtheINFtreaty.We'veseenthemtossoverboardBudapest
MemorandumthatwasaguaranteeofUkraine'ssecurity.
We'veseenthemcompletelywalkawayfromtherelationship[inaudible29:00]where
theyhavepreviouslycommittedandinfactineverypost1989documentcommittedto
respecttheterritorialintegrityandsovereigntyofeveryEuropeanstateandtorefrain
fromthethreatwithuseofforce.
You'reseeingcountriesintheformersovietspaceterriblyintimidatedrightnow.Finding
theirwaybacktoMoscowbecausetheydon'tknowwhereweare.You'reseeing
authoritarianRussiaasopposedtodemocratizingRussia.You'reseeingaGermanywhere
youhaveoneformerchancellorworkingforGazprom.YouhaveacurrentGerman
governmentgoingalongwithanother[inaudible29:39]pipelinetocutouttheBaltic
statescomponent.
HowdoesthisnotadduptoourlosingeverythingthatwethoughtweachievedasJim
wassaying?InEasternEurope,wehavethisgreatsuccess.Isn'ttheseallcoming
unraveled?
Dr.Schake:Iwouldsaytwothingsinresponse.Thefirstisthat'sactuallydeeplyunfair
totheFederalRepublicofGermanythatyou'vedescribeditinthewaythatyoudid.

p.10

TherehasbeennoWesternleader,notjustEuropean,noWesternleaderwhohasbeenas
strongandloudamoralvoiceasAngelaMerkelhasbeen,asRussiahasbeenengagedin
allthedepredationsyousaid.
I'mnotgoingtodefendSchroder,butIdothinkAngelaMerkelisthebestpoliticianof
ourtimebecauseifIhadhadtobetmoneythatshecouldstayfarenoughaheadof
marketstoforceoffacollapseandslowenoughthatshecouldactuallybringtheGerman
publicalongonthebailoutoftheEuropeancurrency,Iwouldhavebet20bucksonthat
proposition.Yet,shegotthetimingexactlyright.
OnRussia,shehasdonethesamething.Shehasbeenactuallyquitebraveinpushing
back,changingtheframeofreferenceinwhichGermanbusinesspeoplethinkabout
Russia.ShediditontheargumentthatifthereisnoruleoflawinRussia,thentherewill
benolongtermbusinessprospectsinRussia.
That'savalueslatentcase.That'saveryAmericancase.Weshouldbecheeringthat.The
Russiansareplayingaveryweakhand,veryaggressivelyandwell,butthatdoesn't
disguisethefactthattheyareplayingaveryweakhand.
Amb.Foley:Korijustwontheargumentforus.
[laughter]
Amb.Foley:AngelaMerkelwasleading,nottheUnitedStates.Thesanctionsareresult
ofGermanresolve,notUSpower.TheGermansareleading,nottheAmericans.
[laughter]
Dr.Moyar:I'dsayalsothefactthatMerkelisthestrongestleaderinthiscaseis
indicativeoftheproblemweface.Recently,inaforeignpolicyinitiativehostedbythe
PresidentofEstonia,hesaidessentiallytheyhavenoconfidenceinWesternEuropeto
defendthemfromRussia.
That'soneofthemostdangerousplacesinworldrightnowistheBalticStatesbecause
we'vegivenPutinareasontobelievethathecangointhereandwe'llsitonourhands.
Butwe'lltheninvokeNATOArticle5andtheneitherwe'llhavewarwithRussiaorwe'll
haveacollapseofNATO.
Amb.Volker:IsRussiaweak?ThisiswhatKoriwasmaking,thatmaylooklikethey're
doingnow,butaretheyreallyweak?
Dr.Moyar:Ithinkthey'rerelativelyweakmilitarily.Idothink...
Dr.Schake:TheycanbarelybeattheUkrainians.
Dr.Moyar:Rightnow,evenifputasmallforceintheBaltics,theycouldprobably
succeed.ButIpersonallythinkifweactuallyputforcesintheBalticsonapermanent

p.11

basis,ratherthanthisrotationalpolicywehave,wecanactuallydeterhim.Idothink
Putinisrelativelyweakandhewillbackdownifheseesthatwearewillingtoconfront
him.
Buthecontinuestogettheimpressionthatwe'regoingtorolloverwheneverhedoes
something.Aslongashethinksthat,he'sgoingtokeepgrabbingit.
Amb.Foley:IbelieveRussiaisfundamentallyweak.Lookingforwardintothefutureit
willbeeverweakerasitdeclines,especiallydemographically.Putinhassomismanaged
theRussianeconomythattheyhaveafewprospectslongtermforprosperity.
Russiaisstronginitsneighborhood.Itisamilitarypower.Poweristhecoinof
internationalrelations.Let'sremember,whenweflagellateourselves,asyoudid,for
Russia'sencroachmentsanddepredations,wepresumethatwehavethepowertoprevent
Russiafromdoingthesethings.
NeverintheColdWardidwethinkthatwecouldinterveneinareasnearestRussiathat
happenedtobeintheWarsawPactatthetime.Butwedidn'tconquerEasternEurope.
Wedidn'tconquertheRussianEurope.Sovietpowercollapsedandtherewasaperiod
whereRussiaseemedtobeembracingdemocracy.Butintermsofsheerpower,we
presumethatwehavesomethingthatIdon'tbelieveexists.
Wefaceaverydelicatedanceinextendingourpower,inextendingourdeterrence,as
yourightlysuggest,totheBaltics.ThesecountriesarenowpartofNATO.Wehavea
solemnobligation.Oursecurityandourcredibilitydependsonourwillingnesstodefend
themandtoprojectthatwewilldefendthemsuchthatPutinunderstandsthatit'snot
worththecandle.
Whenwetalkaboutextendingourpower,extendingourdeterrence,itbecomesmore
delicate.We'recertainlynotgoingtodoitvisvisRussiainacountrythat'snota
memberofNATO.ThatsameparadigmappliesevenmorevisvisChinaandpartsof
AsiawherewearefacingpotentialconflictswithChina.
Dr.Schake:CanIsayawordonRussia?
Amb.Volker:Yes,please.
Dr.Schake:ItisillustrativethatRussiahastwoallies,BelorussiaandSyria.We
shouldn'tbeafraidofGermanyleading.That'sactuallythemeasureofoursuccess,not
themeasureofourfailure.Wehavecreatedaninternationalorderwheretheburdensof
leadershipareshared.Theresponsibilitiesofleadershipareshared.
Thebehaviorofourenemies,whetherISIS,Russia,orevenourfrenemies,likeChina,is
actuallycoalescingcountriestoourcause.America'sAsianallianceshaveneverbeen
strongerthantheyareatthemoment.It'sbecauseofChina'sbehaviorintheSouthand
EastChinaSeas.

p.12

OurEuropeanalliesaredisappointedinusastheyalwaysare.Yet,theNATOcountries
arepullingtogether.WearedeployingtroopsintoEasternEurope,intothenewNATO
members,whichwehadn'tdonebefore.We'removingintotheBaltics.Freecountriesare
slowtocoalescetotheargument,butwehavecoalesced.That'swhywe'vewonthe
postColdWar.Becauseofthenumberofnationsstandinginfreedomshoulderto
shoulder.
Dr.Moyar:Iwouldsay,I'mabitmoreskepticalinAsia.Japan,rightnow,istaking
encouragingsteps,althoughIthinkit'scertainlypossiblethenextJapanesegovernment
maygoinaverydifferentdirection.
Wehaveseen,withtheChinaDevelopmentBankrecently,wetriedtogetmostofthe
regionscountriestoopposeitbecauseitwas[inaudible36:56]byourinstitutionsandout
ofourlongstandingallies[inaudible37:02]itwasChina,Japanbeingtheonemajor
exception.
We'vealsoseenalotofAsianmilitariestryingtoincreasetheirtaughtChinese.I'mmore
concerned.Idothinkthatit'sgoodthatwearenowtryingtoconfrontChinaoverthese
artificialislands.Ithinkthatthat'soneofthemostpositivethingstheObama
Administration'sdone.ButIthinkthere'scertainlyalotofuncertaintywithinthatregion.
Amb.Volker:LetmepushbackonyouguysforasecondonChina.I'mwillingtogo
afterRussiaanynumberofways.Let'stakeChinaforasecond.Chinahascreateda
rapidlygrowingeconomy,economicmiraclefromwheretheywereinthe1970s.They
havelifted300millionpeopleoutofpoverty.Theyhavecreatedamiddleclassbigger
thanmostcountries.
Theyhavebeenaneffectiveparticipantinglobaleconomyorimplicitlytiedtotheglobal
economyfortheirownwellbeing.Theycareaboutsocietalgoals,societalvalues.Maybe
nothumanrights.Definitelynothumanrightsandnotdemocracy,butsocietalvaluesof
povertyreduction,ofeducation,oftechnology,ofdevelopment,increasinglyaboutthe
environment.
Theyhavehighprowsonstability.Eventhoughwe'regoingthroughthegrowingpainsof
arisingChinathatisgoingtorivalUSintermsofsizeandcapacityinthefuture,there's
alotofreasontothinkthatChinamayendupbetteranddifferentlythanwheretheywere
underMaoandwherewewouldeverexpectRussiatobeunderPutin.China'sadifferent
case.
Whileit'snotsomethingtheUnitedStatesisgoverningandcontrolling,we'vecreatedan
environmentwherethewayChina'sdevelopingmayactuallybesomethingthatlandsina
goodplaceforus.
Dr.Moyar:Yes.Again,Ithinkit'shardtoknowwherethething'sgoingtoturnout.
Althoughthecharacteristicsyou'vementionedcouldallhavebeensaidaboutGermanyin
the1930s.There'salsosimilaritiesifyoulookattheRightnationalismwithinChinaright

p.13

now.Therearesomeparallelstherenow.GermanyandChinesearedifferentpeople.
ButIthinkthereiscertainlyapossibility.Chinaistryingtoexertitspowerabroadin
waysthatithasn'tdonebefore.Ideally,we'dliketobeabletochannelthoseimpulsesin
positivedirections.Underthecurrentgovernmentthere'scertainlyalotofdanger.We
havetothinkaboutit.
Amb.Volker:DJ.
Dr.Peterson:Yeah,IbelievethatIemphasizedthisnationalismpiece.That'swhat's
holdingthecountrytogether.Asthecommunistsocialethicdriftsaway,itbecomesless
andlessrelevant,whenyouseegrowingincomeinequality,forinstance,ormassive
failures,whetherit'sfoodorenvironment.
It'sthenationalismcardthatisholdingtheircountrytogetherandwillholdthecountry
togetherasitgetsrougher.AsChinaslowsdown,ithasalotofhubris.Itisgoingto
channelthatenergyinotherways.TheideathatChinawillbeapeacefulor
Westernorientedbig,prosperouscountryIthinkreallymaskscenturiesofChinese
historyandprideinthesenseofthey'reverystrongandcentralplace,thecentralplacein
theworld.
Amb.Volker:TaketheChinaquestionhere,too,Jim.Particularly,there'sthesecurity
sidethatwentfroma$10billiondefensebudgetin'97to$145billionofficiallytoday.It's
morelike$200billionifyouaddallthisstuff.Theyarebuildinguptheseislandsand
militarizingthem.They'returningRussia'sback.
Economically,whetheryoubuyinthecurrencymanipulationornot,thefactiswe'veall
lostjobsandeconomicadvantagetoagrowingChina.Isn'tthatanotherwayoflosing?
Amb.Foley:Itendtodisagreewiththewayyouframedthepreviousquestion,
portrayingChinaasabenignpartner,lessarival,andpreviouslypaintingRussiaasthe
menacingpair,whichitmaybeunderPutin.ButIthinkwehavemuchlesstofear.The
differenceisthatwehavetreatycommitmentsinEuropethatIbelievewewillmeet.I
believePutinknowsthatwewillmeet.Hewillnottestthose,includinghopefullyinthe
Baltics.
Whereas,wehavetreatycommitmentstoalliesinAsiaoverissuesinvolvingrival
territorialclaimsandtheSenkakusandovertheSouthChinaSeathatmayleadtofriction
andworse,inperiodinwhichChina'smilitarymuscleisexpanding,regardlessofwhat
theirbudgetis,butintermsoftheircapabilities,navalandairpowerinparticular.Ata
timewhenourdefensecapabilitiesareatrophying.
Thatmayputusinsomeverydelicateandpotentiallydangerouspositions.I'mmore
focusedonChinathanRussiainthatrespect.
Amb.Volker:Kori.

p.14

Dr.Schake:IagreewithDJ'sperspective.Namely,Iammoreconcernedabouta
falteringChinathanIamaboutasuccessfulChina.BecausewhatIthinkInoticedabout
theinternationalorderisthatrisingpowersarecountriesthatUnitedStatescanfigureout
howtohandle,becausetheyhaveapositivevisionoftheirfuture.Wecanturnthekeys
inthelocksandfindoneformulationoranotherbywhichweandtheycanhavecommon
interestsmovingforward.
Inthelast20years,we'vedoneaprettygoodjobofthatwithChina.Theresponsible
stakeholderbusinesspointingoutthatthey'rethebigbeneficiariesofthisAmerican
dominatedinternationalorderbecauseit'spermittedsomuchchangeforthem.Chinese
nationalismisaveryseriousproblemandit'slikeliertobeaproblemofusiftheyare
unsuccessfulthaniftheyaresuccessful.
Again,IthinkthechallengesforChinatogetfromwheretheyaretowheretheywantto
beareenormous.Letmejustmakeaplugforagreatnewbook.It'swrittenbytwo
defenseexperts,AugustColeandPeterSinger.It'scalled"GhostFleet."It'sanovelabout
awarbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesinwhichwelosetheopeninground.
Slightspoiler,IpromiseIwon'tgettoomuchaway,ourgovernmentprovesincapableof
doingthekindofthingsthatneeddoing.Theyscoopedtoday'snews.Hackers'forums
comeinonoursideinthisconflict,justastheAnonymoushackersgrouphasnowcome
inonthefightonISIS.
Whatfreesocietiesaregoodatdoingislotsofthingsbeyondtheirgovernment.That's
whereourlongtermsuccesslies.
Amb.Volker:That'sanexcellentpointandIwantedtoflipthatimmediatelytoDJand
toMark.Ifwearemeasuringmilitaryweightinconflict,that'sonething.Butifwe're
measuringsocietiesandyoulookatUnitedStatesandWesternsocietiesashavingthis
incredibleresilience,isn'tthatjustbydefinitionmeanthatwe'rewinningallthetime?
Dr.Moyar:That'sanexcellentquestion.Inthiscountry,Idothinkwe'restartingtosee
there'sbeenapushtowardsmulticulturalisminthelastfewdecades,whichstartstocall
intoquestionthedurabilityofourculture.Weface,though,aconsiderablylessofa
probleminthisregardthandoesEurope.I'mparticularlypessimisticabouttheirculture.
ButalsothefactthattheyhavethisfairlyrapidlyexpandingMuslimpopulation,whichI
thinkjustinthelastcoupleofyears,we'reseeingsomefundamentalfrictionbetween
EuropeanditsMuslimpopulations.Theattackslastweekare...ClearlyISISistryingto
exploitthatdivision.
IftheWestwereunified,we'dbeinaprettygoodshape.Alotoftheproblemisthere'sa
lotofpeoplewithintheWestthatdon'tactuallybelievestronglyenoughintheWest.
Dr.Peterson:Thisideaofwinningbydefault,maybethat'sthecase.Maybewe'lljust
ridealong,struggling,almoststumbleacrossthefinishlinefirst.Butthat'snotwinning

p.15

thepostColdWarera.Itdoesn'treallycomportwithAmerica'simageofitself.
IfyouthinkabouttheUSasthevanguard,againthatAnonymousraisingthechallenge
againstISIS,it'slike,"Wow."TheworldisreallynotinAmerica'simageifwe'rereally
countingonAnonymoustohelpwinourwars.
Anotherexample.We'reheadingintotheParisTreatytalksaroundclimate.54percentof
theworldfeelslikeclimateisaseriousthreat.45percentofAmericansthinkthat.We're
behind.We'relagging.Wherearewegoingtoleadontheseissues?Yeah,wemight
stumble.Youstumbleacrossthefinishline,butthat'snotwinningthewar.
Amb.Volker:LetmestickonISISforaminute.IwanttoturnthistoKori.Inthe'90s,
wehaveOsamabinLadendoingacoupleofthings.Weallowedafewmissilesata
chemicalweaponsplant.In2001wehadtheattacksontheWorldTradeCenter
[inaudible47:46].
In2001,welaunchedintothiswaragainstterrorandthewaragainstIraq.Fastforwardto
2015,we'vegotanAfghanistanthatdoesn'tlookfundamentallymorestablethanin2002,
maybeless.We'vegotanIraqthatlookslikeit'llneverbebacktogetheragain,anIraqin
threepieces.WithanIrandominatedBaghdad,theKurdishregions[inaudible48:16].
Then,we'vegotaSyriathat'sfallingapart.WehaveIslamicState.ThisislikealQaeda
onsteroids.It'snotjustaterroristnetworkanymore.It'saterroristnetworkwithoil
tankers.Then,we'vegotthecollapseofLibya.
WetalkaboutbroaderMiddleEastinitiative.BroaderMiddleEastregionisreallyfalling
apartandintoconflict,dictatorshipstryingtohangon,likeinEgypt.Islamistterrorist
groupslikeISISareinLibya.Islamistpoliticalmovementstryingtodominate.Foreign
powersandforeignactorslikeRussiainSyriaorIranorHezbollah.
Howisthisnotlosingfundamentallythiswholeregionthathavebeensomuchmore
stableinthe'90s?
Dr.Schake:TwothingsIwouldsaytothat.First,Idon'tthinkthestabilityofthe1990s
istherightmetricbecausemostofthepeopleoftheMiddleEastwishedtheylivedunder
differentgovernmentsinthe1990sthantheylivedunder.Therepression,thelackof
economicdevelopment,thelackofopportunityforchange.Thisisahugepowerfulforce
intheMiddleEast.
Theyareinthemidstofaterriblewrenchingchange.It'stwostepsfurther,onestepback
inalotofsocieties.It'sonestepfurtherandtwostepsbackinalotofsocieties.Butthey
domakeprogressinallsortsofplaces.Tunisiaisahugesuccessstory.
Amb.Volker:Iwasgoingtoaskyou,leavingasideTunisia...
[laughter]

p.16

Dr.Schake:Positivemodelsintheregionreallymatter.Becausepeopleshareideas.
Theysharebestpractices.Theymimiceachotherallovertheplace.Thereispositive
changegoingon,althoughit'sveryhardtoseeinthemidstofalloftheviolence.
TheotherthingthatIwouldsayisthat,ofcourse,weareahugemajorfactorofthat
violence,bothfortheIraqwarin2003andforabandoningIraq,in2010.Please
rememberthatintheIraqiparliamentaryelections,in2010,everymajorparty,every
partythatsucceededwascrosssectarian.
Everybodyvotedfortoleranceaninclusivenessin2010.Theinstitutionsweresimplynot
strongenoughtomanagethatwhenweleft.Thereispositivechangegoingon.
Amb.Volker:We'regoingtoopenituptotheaudiencetoaskquestionsandsay
comments.Ifanyone'sreadynow,I'llcallonyou.Otherwise,I'mgoingto[inaudible
51:07].Iseeagentlemanhere.Wehaveamicrophone?
AudienceMember:ThequestionishastheWestlost,pasttense,asifit'sover,
postColdWarera.ButitseemslikeweneedtounderstandtheColdWartounderstandif
wewonorlostthepostColdWarera.Thecleardefinitionseemstobeduringthe
leadershipandhowwewontheColdWarthattherewerebadforcesatplay,namelythe
Russians.ItwascalledEvilEmpire.Thatwasaclear,cold,correctdefinitionmade.
Therewasn'tanymoralorethicalrelativismatplay,whichseemstobegoingontoday.
GeorgeW.Bushsaid,"There'sanaxisofevilatplay,"whichmayhavebeenstrong.But
weseewhatIranisdoingthesedays.We'restillplayingintotheirhands.
I'mwonderingifwe'relosingthepostColdWarerabecausewehaven'tanydefinitions
astowhat'shappeninginthepostColdWareraandallowingpeople,governmentstodo
evil,forlackofabetterword,andnotreallybeingclearofthat.
Amb.Volker:Thequestion,ifIunderstandit,isarewelosing,infact,becausewe're
failingtoreact.Thatwecouldbedoing,butwe'renotdoing?Isthat?ThisistoJim,
maybe.
Dr.Schake:Wanttotake,Jim?
Amb.Foley:Yeah,thankyou.YouquotedPresidentBushhavingdeclaredanaxisof
evil.WhatIthinkIwasarguinginthebeginningisthat,giventhenatureofpowerinthe
worldtoday,itsdiffusion,themultiplicityofthreats,andthegrowingnumberofactors
thatwehavetocontendwith,it'snotinourpowersimplytolabelevilandtheneliminate
it.
We'reinakindofinternationalsituationthatwe'renotusedto,becauseforthelast70
yearswewereeitherinabipolarframeworkvisvistheaxisofevil,theSovietUnion,
andtheninaperiodwherewefeltthatwewerethedominantpowerintheworld.

p.17

MyargumentisthatthatisgivingwaytotheoldsystemthatprevailedbeforeWorldWar
II,whereyouhavegrowingnumbersofpowercentersandaninabilityofonepower,
suchastheUnitedStates,tocontrol,dictate,andshape.
Wehaveenoughchallengesonourplateasaglobalpoweracrosstheworld,coupled
withenormousdomesticchallengesthatyou'reallveryfamiliarwiththattheideathat
wecouldwavethatwand,ifweonlywaveditproperlyandlabeledourenemies
accordingly,toprevail,Ithink,todayisafiction.
Instead,wehavetoprioritize.Wehavetomarshalourresources.Wehavetodeploythem
moreintelligently.Aboveall,wehavetogetouracttogetherhereathomeandcometo
agreementinWashingtononthebasicdirectionofourgovernmentandwhatour
governmenthastodototackleourchallengesathomeandabroad.
Amb.Volker:Wecouldneverwin.That'snotdifferenttoday.Recognizingaproblem,
havingaleadershiptackletheproblem[inaudible55:10].Isthatreallywhat'smissing?
Dr.Schake:Ifeellike,youngsterthatyouare,youaretotallyunderestimatingthe
amountofmoralrelativismthatwentonintheColdWar.ThereweresomanyAmericans
whobelievedthingswerebetterintheSovietUnion,LillianHellmanfamouslystanding
upintheMcCarthyhearings.
Moralrelativism,theinabilitytocallevilbyitsname,Iactuallydon'tthinkisthe
challenge.Thechallengeiswinningoverthebulkofpeopleinsocietiestowardsthe
directionthatwewant.Again,letmejustpointout,thatin1956DwightEisenhowerand
hissecretaryofstatehadthislong,agonizingconversationbecausetheNATOideawas
losingitsholdandEuropewaslosttous.Whatarewegoingtodonow?Theyareonthe
Sovietsideinthis.
Amb.Volker:Youguyshaveacommentonthis?
Dr.Peterson:Yeah,IthinkwehadthegalvanizingkindofbipolarColdWarthatreally
kindoffocused.Nowthatwedon'thaveit,wedon'tknowwhy.Youhavepeoplelike
EdwardSnowdenreallyscramblingitupevenmore.Wedon'tevenknowwhatwewant,
letalonehowdoweexercisepowerconsistentlytogetwhatwethink.
Dr.Moyar:Iwouldsay,Ithink,actually,RepublicansandDemocratsagreebyand
largeintermsofwhatourmaininterestsintheworldare.Theydon'twantourhomeland
tobeattacked,theywantafreetradeenvironmentthat'sconduciveandfavorabletous.
Butit'sthequestionof,howdoyouactuallyprotectthoseinterests?
Ithinkwherewe'vestruggledparticularlyinthisadministrationis,numberone,dealing
withadversarynations.Russia,China,Iranhaveallbeentremendouslyemboldenedbya
lackofresolvebytheUnitedStatesandhavetakenfulladvantageofit.
Thenthere'sthequestionof,howdowerebuildtheworldinourimage,isabigone.I

p.18

agreewithKorithatwehadabigchanceinIraqthatweblew,becauseIraqwasheading
intherightdirection.VicePresidentBidenactuallysaidin2010thatdemocracyinIraq
wasgoingtobeoneoftheadministration'sbiggestachievementsafterhehad
poohpoohedthewarinIraq.
Idothinkthere'sawaytodoit,butIthinkit'salongtermprocessof,ittakes,youhave
tobuildacultureofdemocracy,andthat'sagenerationalapproach.Wetried,inmany
cases,totrytodemocratizeinayearortwo,andthat'swhereIthinkwe'vefailed.ButI
thinkasaresultofthat,peoplehavebeensouredontheideathat[inaudible58:07]make.
AudienceMember:Ihaddiscusseditthateverythingisbalancedanddiscusseditand
everyone'sassumingthatourwayisthebestwayforculturesthatarecompletelynotlike
ours,andalackofrespectforeachcultureineverycountry,whetherit'sRussiaorChina
orMiddleEast.
Whothehellsaysthatourwayisbest?Whyarewetheauthorityifitsaysourwayisthe
best?Howdarewethinkthatwehavetherighttoimposeoursystemsonotherpeople?
That'sreallythecruxofoneoftheissues,isthatwewalkintherewithourcowboyboots
on,thinkingthatwearetherightway,and9timesoutof10we'reshownthatwe'renot.
Amb.Volker:OK,thankyou.Whydon'twegofirsttoeachofyou.Mark.
Dr.Moyar:I'lljustcommentonthat.OnereasonIthinkAmericansthinkthatisthatwe
didimposeourwayonGermanyandJapan,andthatseemstohaveworkedoutpretty
wellforus.Ipersonallyhavebeensomeonewhohasbeenresistanttoimposingourway
inalotofcases.
I'vewrittenafewbooksontheVietnamWarwhichactuallyIsaidthatourbiggest
mistakeinVietnamwastryingtoturntheVietnamesegovernmentintoanAmerican
government.IthinkwehavetorealizeactuallybothRepublicansandDemocratsgo
throughphaseswheretheywanttodothis.
Ithinkit'scertainlyagoodquestiontoask.Shouldwebedoingthis?Isthereanymoral
advantage?Ipersonallythinkthewaywecaninfluencepeoplethemostisbringthem
overhereandletthemexperienceourcountry.We'veactuallyhadsomesuccesswith
that.AlotofsuccessstoriesinAsiahavebeenledbypeoplethatwereeducatedinout
universities.
Dr.Schake:YoumakeitsoundasthoughwearemakingpeoplewatchHollywood
movies,usetheInternet,wanta24hournewscycle,andwantgovernmentstheycan
throwoutofpower,butactuallythereasontheUnitedStatesissodominantinthe
internationalorderisbecausemostpeoplechoosetodovoluntarilywhatwewant.
We'renotmarchingintoRussiaandmakingthembeus.We'renotmarchingintoSaudi
Arabiaandmakingthembeus.We'renotmarchingintoIsraelandmakingthembeus.
They'realldifferentfromus.Wherewecreatechangeinothersocieties,theIraqWarand

p.19

oneortwootherexample,mostlyhowwechangetheworldisbythepowerand
magnetismofourideas.
It'sthebeliefthatpeoplehaverightsandtheyloanthemtogovernmentsinlimitedways
forlimitedpurposes.It'struethat90percentofpeoplepolledinRussiasupportVladimir
Putin.Wouldyoutellananonymousphonecaller,ifyouwereaRussiancitizen,thatyou
didn'tsupportVladimirPutin?
[laughter]
Dr.Schake:Ofcoursenot.Itturnsoutthere'safairamountofevidencethatthetruths
weholdtobeselfevidentareactuallymostlywhatotherpeoplewant.That'swhata
motherofsixintribalareasofPakistanactuallyyearnsfor,thethingswetakefor
granted.
Amb.Volker:I'mgoingtopassthemicrophonetothemiddletablehereto[inaudible
61:40].
Dr.Schake:Whales,andWhales.
[crosstalk]
AudienceMember:Actually,buildingonthecommentsofthelasttwocommentators
andquestioners,itseemstomeabigpartofadefinitionofsuccesswouldbeastrong,
multilateralinstitution.I'dbeveryinterestedtoknowthepanel'sviewonwhether
multilateralinstitutionsarestrengthening.
Dr.Schake:Mr.Ambassador,doyouwanttotakethatfirst?
Amb.Foley:No.
Dr.Schake:OK.[laughs]
Amb.Foley:LetDJtakeit.
Dr.Peterson:Ithink,insomeways,they'retherebydefault.Again,ifyouthinkabout
thepostwarera,theUSwaslargelythearchitectofmultilateralinstitutionsthatmatterin
theworld.Ithinkintoday'sworldtheUSisfundamentallyambivalent.
IfwethinkaboutIMFreforms,ifwethinkaboutsomemajortreatiesthatareoutthere
governingwarfare,forinstance,oratrocitiesofwar,we'reveryambivalent.We'renot
parties.We'renotmembersoftheInternationalCriminalCourt.Infact,therearealotof
multilateralinstitutions,andmanyofthemaretryingtomaketheirwaywithoutthe
UnitedStatesordespitetheUnitedStates.AsianInfrastructureDevelopmentBankisa
primeexample.
Ithinktheydomatter.Insomecasesthey'reweakenedorthey'renotaspowerfulasthey

p.20

arebecausetheUnitedStatesisextremely,inmyview,conflicted.Itgoesalltheway
throughsociety.It'snotjusttheWhiteHouse.
Amb.Volker:[inaudible63:32]?
Dr.Schake:Wealwayshavethat.YouhavethegreatinstitutionalmomentafterWorld
WarIIthatisafunctionofthecatastropheoftheinternationalorderandthecostwepaid
torestoreit.Youhavethisonegreatshiningmotorofmultilateralism.
Ithinksomeinstitutionsarestrengthening.IthinkNATOisstrengthening.Ithinkeven
theEUisstrengthening.Iwouldn'thavebet20buckstheycouldgetthroughthelast
eightyearsaswellastheyhave.Idon'tthinktheUnitedNationsisweakening.Ithinkit's
actuallyalwaysbeenweak,andbecauseofthefivepowerstructureinit.
Ithinkthatwearemissinghugeopportunities.ThemaintreatyIwouldliketoseemy
countryratifyistheLawoftheSeaTreaty,becausewearethemainbeneficiariesofit.
Butwe'remissinglotsofopportunitieslikethis.Iagreewithyourunderlyingpremise
thatthehealthofmultilateralinstitutionsisanimportantmeasureofoursuccess.
Amb.Volker:Ifwecouldpassamicrophonebackthere,andIwanttoraiseafollowup
tothiswhilewedo.AfterWorldWarII,theUSwasaprincipalarchitectofinternational
institutionsandanewruleoflaworder.
UnitedNations,NATO,CentralTreatyOrganization,IMF,WorldBank,EuropeanCoal
andSteelCommunity,MarshallPlan,InternationalCourtofJustice,awholearrayof
thingsdesignedbypeopletosay,"Thiscan'thappenagain.We'regoingtocreatelawand
order,andit'sgoingtobemodeledondemocraticvalues."
WhatDJjustsaidistheUnitedStatesnowis,atbest,ambivalentaboutthis,fearing
thisiswhereI'mtakingyourargumentfurtherfearingthatifwepursuethesethings,
they'regoingtobeturnedagainstus.
Thatwedoaninternationalcriminalcourt,andpeoplearegoingtogoafterUSsoldiers
inthatcourt.WedotheLawoftheSea,andit'sgoingtoimposeontheUnitedStates
againstourfreedomofmaneuveringactivitiesinthearea.
ThequestionisreallytoKori,orJim.Isn'tthatindicativeofouractuallyhavinglostthis?
Westartedouttherightway,withthebestofintentions,andinfact,it'snotworkingout
thatway?
Dr.Schake:No.It'satestamenttothefactthatpoliticalleaderswon'texplaintomy
momthatAmericansoldiersaren'tgoingtogetdraggedinfrontoftheInternational
CriminalCourtbecausewehaveafunctioningjusticesysteminthiscountrythat'sgoing
toadjudicatethosethings.It'sthefailureofpoliticalleadership.It'snotamoresystemic
problem.
Amb.Foley:Iwouldagreewiththat.Strongpoliticalleadershipcould,inprinciple,

p.21

bringusintotheseinstruments.Butlet'sbeclearthatthenatureofourpoliticalsystem,
ourpsychology,isadeepdistrust.That'sapoliticalfactofinternationalentanglements
andUNtypeobligations.
Thisissomethingthatpoliticiansstoke,buttheyalsorespondto.It'snotaneasycasefor
Americanstatesmentomake.Theyallshouldbedoingit,andIagreewithyou
completely.
It'sinourfundamentalinteresttobeintheLawoftheSeaTreaty.Itwouldincreaseour
leverageagainsttheRussiansupinthearctic.Itwouldincreaseourleveragevisvisthe
ChineseintheSouthChinaSea,andourmilitarystronglysupportsitsratification.
Wecan'tgetitthroughtheCongress,despite,Ithink,supportfromtheExecutive,soyes.
Politicalleadershipisneeded.But,asyousaid,ourhistoryindicatesotherwiseovertime.
Amb.Volker:Questionfromthebackrow?Sir?
AudienceMember:Yes,thankyou.Ithinktherehavebeenvariousreferencestoan
abdicationofUSleadership,andyoucanseethependulumshereseemtoswing.Wehad
acowboyadministration.Nowwehaveaveryreticentadministration.
ButIwouldliketoputthequestiontothepanelof,nowyouhaveasituationwhere
beforetheeventsthatjustoccurredinFrance,itwasunclearwhatastrongexecutive
shoulddoinSyriatopreventtheextremeflowofmigrants,andtoresolvethatvery
difficultsituation.
Now,inlightoftheFrenchattacks,ifyouwantedtoseeAmericatakeastrongerrolein,
let'ssaynotlosingthepostColdWar,whatshouldastrongexecutive,ifwehadone,do
inSyriaandIraqinthecurrentsituation?
AudienceMember:Ihaveaquestion.
[crosstalk]
Dr.Moyar:CanIanswerthat,[inaudible68:46]?
Amb.Volker:Yeah.Mark,whydon'tyoukickoff?WhatdowedoinSyria?
Dr.Moyar:Syriaisprobablythemostdifficultplaceintheworldrightnowtodeal
with.Thereweresomefairlyeasyfixes,orfixesthatatleasthadachanceofsuccess.
In2012,therewerealotofmoderatenationalistgroupsthatwereaskingforour
assistance,andGeneralPetraeus,SecretaryofStateClintonandothers,wereactually
urgingtheadministrationtoprovidearmstothesegroups.Wedidnotdoso.
Intheensuingyears,mostofthosegroupswereeitherkilledoff,ortheywerecoopted
byISISoralQaeda,soyounowhaveamuchmoredifficultproposition.

p.22

Also,mostofthepeoplewhostudySyriawilltellyouthatalongtermsolutionrequires
[inaudible69:36]Assad.NowthatRussiahascomein,Assadlookslikehe'sgotapretty
goodgriponpowerthere.Thathas,Ithink,furtherconstrainedwhatourgoodoptions
are.
TherecertainlyseemstobeopportunitiesforcooperationwithRussianowtogoafter
ISIS.Butthereisapopulationofabout20millionpeopleinSyriaandIraq,theSunni
population,whoviewRussia,Syria,andIranasmortalenemies.TheywillsupportISIS
andalQaedaratherthanallowthoseorganizationstocomein.
TheonlypeoplewhoIthinkcanactuallyresolvethisultimatelyaretheAmericans,
becausethey'retheonlyoneswhoaresomewhatdistancedfromtheSunniShiadivide,
andactuallyhavethemanpowertogointhere.Noneoftheothercountriesthereare
goingtosolvethis.
DoingthatisgoingtorequirealotmoreUStroops,andI'mnotsuretheAmericanpeople
willbuythat.Ifthere'ssomethinglikewhathappenedinParisinthiscountry,Ithinkyou
mightseethat.
Amb.Volker:Senator?
AudienceMember:Syriaisclearlyaproblemfromhell,andonecansympathizewith
thedesireonthepartoftheadministrationtonotgetdrawnin,andtheskepticismabout
theabilityofAmericaninterventiontomakeadifference,andnotmakeabadsituation
worse.
Ithinkit'sbecomingreallyclear,especiallyinlightoftheParisattacks,whatthecostsare
ofinattention,andwerisk...WetalkaboutourEuropeanallies,abouttheEuropeanunion.
Ithinkthisuncheckedflow,thistidalwaveofrefugees,ofmigrantsintoEuropereally
risksdestabilizingtheEuropeanUnionandISISitselfrisksfurtherdestabilizingthe
MiddleEast,andexportingterrorism,aswe'veseenallaroundtheworld.
It'sreachedthepointwhereIthinkneglect,inattentionisnolongerpossible,andarobust
approachandrobustinterventionisgoingtobenecessarytodefeatISIS.ButIdon't
believethattherecanbeamilitarysolutionwithoutadiplomaticsolution,andyoucan't
haveadiplomaticsolutionifyou'renotalsowillingtogoinandtakeoutISIS,butthey
havetobemarried.
Weneedarobust,diplomaticagreementonapostAssadSyriainwhichalltheparties
canagree.Thatiseasytosay,andvirtuallyimpossibletoachieve.Butit'sgoingtobethe
necessaryfoundationtoarobust,potentiallyifnotUSled,withamuchstrongerUSrole
andthentoeradicatethethreat.
Dr.Schake:Iwantabiteatthisapple,too.StartbyprotectingthepeopleinSyria.Take
thepressurebothofimmigrantsoffofimmigrationtoEuropeandotherplaces,but,most
importantly,takethepressureoffofTurkey,Syria,andtheneighboringcountriesthat

p.23

havesixmillionSyrianrefugeeslivingthere.
ThatmeanscreatingsafezonesalongtheTurkishandJordanianborderthatwealong
withothersaregoingtoneedtoprotect.IthinkapoliticaldealthathasAssadremaining
incontrolofarumpAlawitestateandgivingRussianstheirbase,butthenpermitsthe
restofthecountrytomoveforwardandforustofightalongwiththeSyrian,Sunni,and
otherstouprootISISfromtheirmidstandtakeawaytheirterritoryismypreferred
solution.
Amb.Volker:Letmeaskonemorequestion.We'lldotwo.I'mgoingtoaskmy
question.ThenIwanttocometoyou.Thenwe'regoingtodoourwrapuproundhere
whereeachpanelisthastogivejustonebottomlinerecommendation.
ThequestionIwanttoaskcomesbacktotheonethatwasatthistableearlier,whichwas
listeningtoallthisadviceaboutwhattodoaboutSyria.Thefirstquestionis,"Isthisour
problem?Whydowehavetodothis?"Thesecondpartofthatis,"Couldweevenifwe
wantedto?"I'mnotsuggestingthatwedowantto.Atleast,itdoesn'tseemlikeit.
Butevenifwewantedit,dowereallyhavetheabilitytofixthesethings?Thatseemsto
beanunderlyingthing.Becauseeverybody'stalkingaboutUSleadership,butleadership,
exactlywhatdoesthatmean?Ifit'snotyourproblemandyoucan'tfixthisproblem,what
isleadershipthere?
LetmepitchthatfirsttoourteamthatisadvocatingatarobustAmericanrevival,and
thenpitchitbacktoKoriandJim.
Dr.Moyar:IntermsofcanweactuallyfixSyria,Ithinkwecan.Isitourproblemisthe
tougherquestion.Ithinkcertainlyit'snowEurope'sproblemhasbecomeveryclear.I
wouldsayEuropeisourmostreliablepartnerintheworld.Ithinkonthatbasis,you
couldargue,yes,thatweshoulddoit.
IdothinktheSunniShiiteviolenceandtheideathatwecanjustsitbackandletthatplay
out,Ithinkthathurtusinthelongtermtodothatbecauseit's[inaudible75:04].The
amountofhatredthat'sbeinggeneratedthereisgoingtotouchus.We'realreadyseeingit.
WearecertainlyshieldedtoagreaterdegreethanEuropeis,butIdon'tthinkwe'llbe
shieldedentirely.Ithinkprobablyit'sinourlongterminteresttoseeEuropenotbeing
completelydestabilizedbywhat'sgoinginSyria.
Dr.Schake:Canwesolveit,andshouldwesolveit?Yes,weshouldhelpsolveit.Not
onlybecauseIfeellikeagovernmentthatkillsaquartermillionofitsownpeopleand
makesrefugeesoutof11millionothersandthatwecouldprettyeasilytakecareofand
arechoosingnotto,Ithinkthat'sacorrosionoftheinternationalorderthatwewantedto
createandthatwebelieveferventlyin.
Second,weshouldsolveitbecausewehelpedcreatethisproblem.thisdidn'temerge

p.24

organically.ThisisafunctionofthewarsthataregoingintheMiddleEast,andwe've
playedamajorroleinthem.Wehaveamoralobligation.
Third,thepracticalobligationthatMarkmentionedbecausethisisdestabilizingtoalot
ofourfriendsandnotjustinEurope,Jordan,Turkey,othercountries.
Canwedoit?Yes!IthinkaboutthesuccessfulmodelofprovidecomfortinNorthern
Iraq.PeoplearenowtalkingabouthowtheKurdishterritoriesaretheonlysuccessfulpart
ofIraq.Whyisthat?Becausein1991,weprotectedthoseareasassafezones.Wehelped
themsetupgovernments.Wegrewaleadershipwecouldlivewith.
Yes,wecandothissuccessfully.We'vedoneitsuccessfullyinalotofplaces.
Amb.Volker:Inthemiddletablehere.
AudienceMember:Justaquickquestionforyou.IwasonthegroundinKievacouple
ofmonthsagoactually.TheresolveoftheUkrainianpeopleisremarkable.ThequestionI
haveisthesewhylovetheircountry.Whyhasn'ttheUSledmore?Shouldwe?Should
theWestleadmore?Whataretheimplicationsofthat?Whatwouldlookthat?
Secondquestioniswehaveavarietyofpresidentialcandidateswhoaretalkingabout
theirapproachtodealingwithISIS,Syria.Onewhosayshewouldbombtheexpletive
outoftheoilfieldsandthentaketheoil.Whataretheimplicationsofthat?That'skindof
afunquestionforyou.WhataretheimplicationsofallowingRussiatolead?
Amb.Volker:Let'sstickwithonequestion.ItwasthequestionofUkraine,whichwe
hadn'ttalkedaboutyet.WhyarewenotdoingmoreintheUkraine?
Dr.Peterson:Ithinkafewthings.One,I'mnotasoptimisticabouttheUkrainiansand
themfiguringouttheirownconflictsandconflictedinterests.Ithinkthestoryisgetting
moremuddledaboutwherethey'regoingandtheirtrajectory.Idon'tthinktheWest,the
UnitedStates,orWashington,forinstance,forthepurposesofthisdiscussionisgettinga
clearsignal.
Secondpoint,theUnitedStatesisnotgoingtospendmoneyonafarawaycountry.We
justdon'thavethevisionwhetherit'stakingYale'spointwherewe'remoreenlightened
now,andwe'renotgoingtogetinvolved,butit'sjustwedon'thavetheguts.Wedon't
havethemoney.Wedon'thavethewillingnessthemakethesecuritycommitmentsthat
Ukraineneeds.
Dr.Schake:IthinkUkraine'sahardexamplebecausetheyhaveblownearlier
opportunitiesforpositivechange,in1991andaftertheOrangeRevolution.Yet,Istill
believeweshouldbedoingalotmoretohelpthem.
Idothink,though,thattheinternationalinstitutionsand,inparticular,theInternational
MonetaryFundhasbeendoingalotthat'sreallygood.TheEuropeanUnionhasbeen
doingagoodjobofhelpingrootoutcorruption,establishtransparency.TheIMFhas

p.25

beenstalwartindealingwiththecreditorsofUkraineandhelpingthemgetafreshstart.I
thinkwehaven'tdonehalfbadly,althoughIwishwehaddonemore.
Ofcourse,asDJsuggests,thiscenterofgravityforUkraine'ssuccessliesinUkraine.But
it'sinallofourintereststoshowtheRussiansthatUkrainecanandwillbesuccessful,
becausethat'stherightwaytopunishRussia'sdisgracefulbehaviorinUkraine.
AudienceMember:Thankyousomuch.Weall,ofcourse,wearenowfocusingin
SyriaontheterrorismpartsinParisandbecauseofhowterriblethosesituationsare.
Butthereisoneolderproblem.Wehavenotmentioned...Maybewehavementionedit
veryvaguely,whichisthePalestinianIsraeliconflict.Ithasbeenalotlikethat.Here,the
UnitedStateshasabigwordtosay.Also,becausepossibilityasweseeitineverytime
thereisanewsolutionorproposalinthedirectednations.Thatisveryclear.
Howdoyouseethe[inaudible80:30]theperspectiveforthisconflict?Thankyou.
Dr.Schake:I'mactuallyprettydownbeataboutpeaceintheMiddleEast.IthinkIsrael
ischanginginwaysthatwillmakepeacewiththePalestinians.IthinkthePalestinians
arealsochanginginwaysthatwillmakepeacemuchharder.I'malotlesshopefulthanI
usedtobe.
Iwishmycountryactuallyhadtheabilitytofixthatproblem,butIdon'tthinkwedo,and
Idon'tthinkweeverdid.
Dr.Peterson:IthinktheUSIsraelrelationshipisoneofthestrongestexamplesof
decliningUSpower.Thebreachoffaithandtrustbetweenthesetwocountriesisreally
shocking.
Amb.Volker:Letmestartwrappingthisupbecausewehavetofinish.ThequestionI
wanteachofyoutoanswer...We'lldoitrapidfire.Ireallyjustwantoneminuteor
less...Evenasentenceisjustgood.Abottomlinerecommendationsothatifyouwereto
giveyouradvicetothecurrentadministrationorthenextone,whatwouldyouliketosee
themdo?Whatwouldbeyouradvicegoingin?
Amb.Foley:IwouldsimplyelaborateonwhatIwassayingearlier,thatthegreat
George[inaudible81:54]arguedthattheUnitedStatescouldn'tbestrongerabroadthan
wewereathome.Whathecalledthehealthandsanityofinstitutionswascriticaltoour
abilitytoprotectpowervaluesintheworld.Ithinkthat'swherewe'refallingdown.
Thisisaverycomplexworldthatwe'refacingtoday,justmultiplyingthreats.Thenotion
thatwecangoinandengineercountriesinourimage,aswasalludedtobyoneofthe
questioners,that'sancienthistory.Thatwasonly10yearsagowethoughtso.Wedon't
thinknow.
Weneedtofocuson...I'mexceedingmyminute.Iunderstand.Butwhatweneedisthe
nextPresidentandthenextCongresstostrikeadealonputtingourfinancesonasound

p.26

footingsothatwewillpayforthegovernmentweneedathomeandtheengagementwe
needoverseas.That'sthepredicatetorebuildingourmilitarysothatwecanconfront
thesechallengesfromapositionofstrengthandconfidence.
Amb.Volker:Getyourhouseinorderathomefirstbeforeyouworryabouttherestof
theworld.
Dr.Schake:IendorseJim'spositioncompletely.Themostimportantconstrainton
Americanpowerisourinabilitytopayforespeciallytheentitlementprogramsthatwe
want.Idon'twantthenextPresidentorthenextCongresstosolvesthatproblem.Iwant
thisPresidentandthisCongresstomakeanentitlementsdealthat'llputourfederal
spendingonsolid,sustainablefooting.
Dr.Peterson:AsaCalifornian,I'llgiveitthenextleaderneedstopullaJerryBrown
andfundamentallyreformourpoliticalsystemsothatwehavestrongcenterthatkindof
matchestheelectorate'sinterestsandreallygetsridofthisdivisiveness.
Dr.Moyar:Iwouldsayacouplethingsneedtobedone.One,justthepublicdiplomacy
hastochange.WearenowinapositionwherethePresidentisimmediatelysayingwe're
notgoingtoputbootsonthegroundbeforewedoanything,whichjustundercuts
everythingwedo.
Ithinkweneedtostepupmilitaryspending,probablytoatleastfourpercentofGDP.
We'redownwellbelowthatnow.
IfyoulookatAsia,LatinAmerica,Europe,theMiddleEast,we'reallshortonfunding
andourmilitarypersonnelaregettingburnout.Theratesofdivorceandsuicideare
prettyalarmingbecausewedon'thavethemanpowertomaintainallthecommitmentswe
have.
Amb.Volker:Interesting.Thankyouvery,verymuch.Ijustwanttointerestinglynote
thatoffourdebaters,talkingaboutistheUSlosingthepostColdWarontheworld,the
answerstartswithwhatwedodomestically.Veryinteresting.
Thankyouverymuch.Pleasejoinmeinthankingourdebaters.
[applause]
[music]

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