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POLITICAL ECONOMY OF BALOCHISTAN CRISIS:

UNKNOTTING ECONOMIC FACTORS BEHIND THE
CURRENT INSURGENCY

By: Abdul Rauf Iqbal

M.Phil (Peace & Conflict Studies)
Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
SEQUENCE
 Introduction
• Literature Review
• Aim of the Study
 Social Mobilization Theory
 Balochistan – A Historical Overview
 Resurgence of Current Uprising
 Analysis of Theory
• Economic Viability
• Organizational Advantages
 Conclusion and Way Forward 3
 Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Introduction
 Four times Balochistan has undergone
insurgency
 Violent protests in the form of bomb blasts,
target killings and acts of sabotage
 Pakistani flags are being taken down
 Schools are being threatened against singing
the national anthem
 Grievances relate to self rule, ownership of
resources, political participation and control
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over the economy
 Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Literature Review
 Alok Bansal – Baloch movement as a result of “perceived
Punjabi hegemony”
 Adeel Khan – Baloch nationalism results from “the struggle
for power between the Pakistani state and the Baloch
people”
 Robert G. Wirsing – context of today’s Baloch insurgency in
terms of “energy resource developments”
 Frederic Grare – relates the uprising to “revival of
nationalistic sentiments”
 Mir Ghaus Bizenjo – the current violent outburst as “an
outcome of military operations of 1973”
 Surendra – in terms of “opportunity based motives”
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Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Aim of the Study

Notwithstanding significance of other

scholarly explanations, this paper essentially
examines “the efficacy of social mobilization
explanation offered by Surendra for the
ongoing insurgency.”

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 Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Surendra’s Social Mobilization Theory
 Social mobilization is “amalgamation of particular
opportunities encouraging rebellion”
 Notion of opportunity refers to political climate which create
economic incentives for the insurgents
 She posits that mobilization is the result of an intricate
combination of circumstances that foster lucrative
opportunities and these factors facilitate the expression of
grievances and transform them into action
 She has used “mobilization-supporting opportunities” concept
that can be divided into two broad categories
• Economic Viability
• Organizational Advantage
 Surendra concludes that opportunity for mobilization in
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Balochistan has encouraged contentious behavior
 Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Balochistan – A Historical Background
 Balochistan – the largest province with the smallest number of people
 Balochistan covers nearly the country’s entire coast – 470 miles of Arabian
Sea
 But the most impoverished province of Pakistan with the lowest per capita
income
 Tribal land that was ruled autocratically by its Nawabs
 Ethnically and linguistically – the most diverse province of Pakistan
• Baloch, Pakhtoons, Brahui and non Baloch
• Majority of Baloch live outside Balochistan, mostly in Sind and Punjab
 Rich in mineral resources but the driest province of Pakistan – little
irrigation and farming
 The social mode of Balochistan has predominantly been nomadic
 The livelihood of the people has been dependent on
• Growing crops on small pieces of land
• Tending pasture land
• Cattle breeding
• Trade and work in mines 8
 Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Resurgence of Current Uprising
• The violence after an interval of almost three decades – Fueled by a
long list of grievances
• Upsurge started due to series of mega projects, most importantly the
Gwadar port
• Crises took a new shape in early 2009 when UNHCR representative,
John Solecki was abducted from Quetta
• Three Baloch nationalist leaders murdered, a new wave of violence
touched urban areas of province
• The insurgents started attacking developmental activities and hatred
against non Baloch residents of province took the shape of target
killings
• This violent situation is still in practice and target killing has taken
lives of more than 200 civilians
• So far six academicians have become victims of target killings
• Some religious extremists are also spreading sectarian violence
through target killing
• The former Capital City Police Officer (CCPO) of Quetta has alleged 9

Lashkir-i-Jhangvi for sectarian target killings

 Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Analysis of Theory
 Mobilization – a result of complex combination of
circumstances that encourage beneficial opportunities and
assist the notion of grievances and transform them into action
 Mobilization-supporting opportunities can be divided into two
broad categories
 Economic Viability
• Financial Gains from the Exploitation of Natural Resources
• Foreign Support
• Access to Conflict-specific Capital
• Low Costs of Involvement
 Organizational Advantages
• Favorable Terrain
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• Social Cohesion
 Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Financial Gains from Exploitation of Natural Resources
 Sui gas compensation – Nawab Bugti (12 million rupees from the
Centre as royalty for Sui gas and one million rupees as transportation charges)

 Bugti used this money to fund local insurgents

 Ground realities – partially to Nawab Bugti and partly
to Balochistan province (GDS at present is around 23 per cent, In FY 2005-
06, it got Rs5.3 billion from the GDS)

 Insurgency – not only in Dera Bugti but also includes

Kohlu and Nasserabad Divisions which are abode of
Marri tribe
 Question arises about Marri area – where oil is
abundant
 If the Marri are not exploiting natural resources then 11

from where funding is coming?

 Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Foreign Support
 Subventions from hostile governments are the second
mean for rebel groups to gain necessary funds
 Foreign elements can support the movement in the
form of military and economic assistance
 Reports of foreign involvement in the insurgency
suspecting India, Iran, US, Russia and others
 One can question the share of India, Iran,
Afghanistan, the US and Russia but, the fact is that all
these foreign actors are supporting the ongoing
violence in Balochistan 12
 Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Conflict-specific Capital
 Conflict-specific capital is another economic necessity for
turning a social movement into a rebellion and the opportunity
for rebellion comes when such capital is unusually cheap or
available
 It also remains a fact that the Baloch have no shortage of
conflict-specific capital
 Acts of sabotage and use of modern weapons further
emphasize upon the foreign involvement
 But one has to look that either the conflict-specific capital is
present in the whole province or not
 Presence of conflict-specific capital may be true in the region
bordering with Afghanistan but it might not be true in the case
of whole province
 If the capital is available in the whole region then the whole
province should involve in insurgency. Contrary to it, only
some districts shows tendency of rebellion 13
 Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Low Costs of Involvement
 Participation in a rebellious movement needs that an
individual gives up his earnings and if his earning is
low, the cost of rebellion is likewise low. Contrary to
it, if earning is high, the individual is not likely to
participate in the rebellion
 Balochistan is the poorest province from rest of three
provinces as well as the region is very low in literacy
rate
 This may be applicable for lower class but confusion
arise about the middle class and elite tribal leaders
 When they are paying more for agitation then there
must be some other objectives for indulging in the
insurgency 14
 Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Organizational Advantages
 Favorable Terrain
• Balochistan is an area of low dense population, low
urbanization and widespread harsh mountains
• Economic livelihood is nomadic and nomadic life of local
population gives them an advantage over the state
machinery
• Low population density coupled with its huge size,
challenging terrain, and lack of development becomes a
breeding ground for contention
• Favorable terrain becomes lucrative for insurgents in rural
and under developed areas of the province. As the very
terrain is not available in urban areas, the insurgents use
different tactics like target killings
• Rural areas act as a favorable terrain for insurgents but the
urban centers becomes difficult for rebels
• Further, the Pakthoon dominated northern part of province
consists of same terrain but no trace of insurgency is found15

there
 Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Social Cohesion
 Balochistan has a legacy of autocratically ruled by its Nawabs
 Ethnically and linguistically, it is the most diverse province of
Pakistan with Baloch, Pakhtoons, Brahui, and non Baloch
settlers
 The present upsurge is only found in the Baloch dominated
area which shows a certain level of cohesion in the Baloch
population
 The structure of tribal networks and tribal leaders’ support
within the Baloch further encourages the formation of rebel
groups
 Contrary to it, traces of insurgency are not found in Pakhtoons
and Brahui populations although both ethnic groups are also
divided in different tribes.
 Here question arises that why the required social cohesion is
not available in tribal societies of Pakhtoons and Brahui 16
populations
 Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Table 1. Respective Variables of Social Mobilization in Balochistan

Grievances Yes
Exploitation of Natural Resources To Some Extent

Foreign Support To Some Extent

Conflict-Specific Capital To Some Extent

Low Cost of Involvement To Some Extent

Favorable Terrain To Some Extent

Social Cohesion To Some Extent

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 Political Economy of Balochistan Crisis
Conclusion
 Theoretically – discards Social mobilization thory in
Balochistan
 Partially social mobilization theory applies in the case of
Balochistan
 External actors are supporting the insurgency in Balochistan
due to the strategic importance of the region
 The present insurgency is only found in the tribal areas of
Baloch population
 The ethnic Baloch of three tribes (Mari, Bugti and Mengal) are
suffering some major grievances by the hands of their tribal
elders and the governmental authorities
 These grievances must be addressed by the central government
and the present can be settled through dialogue based an open18
mind and heart
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