158

W H Y NATIONS

FAIL

D R I F T I N G

for several reasons. First, R o m e , l i k e Venice, u n d e r w e n t m a j o r early

institutional innovations. A s i n Venice, Rome's initial e c o n o m i c success w a s b a s e d o n i n c l u s i v e i n s t i t u t i o n s a t least b y t h e standards o f
their time. A s i n Venice, these institutions became decidedly m o r e
extractive over time. W i t h R o m e , this w a s a c o n s e q u e n c e o f t h e
c h a n g e f r o m t h e R e p u b l i c ( 5 1 0 B C - 4 9 BC) t o t h e E m p i r e ( 4 9 BC-AD 4 7 6 ) .
Even though during the Republican period Rome built a n impressive
empire, a n d long-distance trade a n d transport flourished, m u c h o f the
R o m a n e c o n o m y was based o n extraction. T h e transition f r o m republic t o e m p i r e i n c r e a s e d e x t r a c t i o n a n d u l t i m a t e l y l e d t o t h e k i n d o f
infighting, instability, a n d collapse that w e saw w i t h t h e M a y a citystates.
Second a n dm o r e important, w e w i l l see that Western Europe's
subsequent institutional development, t h o u g h i t w a s n o t a direct i n heritance o f R o m e , w a s a c o n s e q u e n c e o f critical junctures that w e r e
c o m m o n across the r e g i o n i n the w a k e o f the collapse o f the W e s t e r n
R o m a n E m p i r e . T h e s e critical junctures h a d little parallel i n o t h e r parts
of the w o r l d , such as Africa, Asia, o r the Americas, t h o u g h w e w i l l
also s h o w via the history o f E t h i o p i a that w h e n other places d i d e x perience similar critical junctures, t h e y s o m e t i m e s reacted i n w a y s
that w e r e remarkably similar. R o m a n decline led t o feudalism, w h i c h ,
as a b y - p r o d u c t , c a u s e d s l a v e r y t o w i t h e r a w a y , b r o u g h t i n t o e x i s t e n c e cities that w e r e o u t s i d e t h e sphere o f i n f l u e n c e o f m o n a r c h s a n d
aristocrats, a n d i n the process created a set o f institutions w h e r e t h e
political p o w e r s o frulers w e r e w e a k e n e d . I t w a s u p o n this feudal
f o u n d a t i o n that t h e Black D e a t h w o u l d create havoc a n d further
s t r e n g t h e n i n d e p e n d e n t cities a n d peasants a t t h e e x p e n s e o f m o n archs, aristocrats, a n d large l a n d o w n e r s . A n d i t w a s o n this canvas
that t h e opportunities created b y the Atlantic trade w o u l d play out.
M a n y parts o f the w o r l d d i d n o t u n d e r g o these changes, and i n consequence drifted apart.
ROMAN

VIRTUES

. .

R o m a n plebeian tribune Tiberius Gracchus was clubbed t o death i n

1 3 3 BC b y R o m a n s e n a t o r s a n d h i s b o d y w a s t h r o w n u n c e r e m o n i o u s l y

APART

159

i n t o t h e Tiber. H i s m u r d e r e r s w e r e aristocrats l i k e T i b e r i u s himself,

a n d the assassination w a s m a s t e r m i n d e d b y his cousin Publius C o r n e lius Scipio Nasica. Tiberius Gracchus h a d a n impeccable aristocratic
pedigree as a descendant o f s o m e o f the m o r e illustrious leaders o f
the R o m a n Republic, including Lucius Aemilius PauUus, hero o f the
lUyrian a n d Second Punic wars, a n d Scipio Africanus, the general w h o
defeated H a n n i b a l i n t h e Second Punic War. W h y had the p o w e r f u l
senators o f his day, e v e n his cousin, t u r n e d against him?
T h e a n s w e r tells u s m u c h a b o u t the tensions i n the R o m a n R e p u b lic a n d t h e c a u s e s o f i t s s u b s e q u e n t d e c l i n e . W h a t p i t t e d T i b e r i u s
against these p o w e r f u l senators w a s his willingness t o stand against
t h e m i n a crucial question o f the day: t h e allocation o f land and t h e
rights o f plebeians, c o m m o n R o m a n citizens.
B y t h e time o f Tiberius Gracchus, R o m e w a s a well-established
republic. Its political institutions and t h e virtues o fR o m a n citizens o l d i e r s a s c a p t u r e d b y J a c q u e s - L o u i s D a v i d ' s f a m o u s p a i n t i n g Oath
of the Horatii, w h i c h s h o w s t h e s o n s s w e a r i n g t o t h e i r f a t h e r s t h a t
t h e y w i l l d e f e n d t h e R o m a n R e p u b l i c t o t h e i r d e a t h a r e still s e e n b y
m a n y historians as t h e f o u n d a t i o n o f the republic's success. R o m a n
citizens created the republic b y o v e r t h r o w i n g their k i n g , Lucius Tarq u i n i u s Superbus, k n o w n as T a r q u i n the P r o u d , a r o u n d 5 1 0 B C T h e
republic clevedy designed political institutions w i t h m a n y inclusive
elements. I t w a s g o v e r n e d b y magistrates elected for a year. T h a t the
office o f magistrate w a s elected, annually, a n d held b y m u l t i p l e people at the same time reduced t h eability o f any one person t o consolidate o r exploit his power. T h e republic's institutions contained a
system o f checks and balances that distributed p o w e r fairly widely.
T h i s w a s s o e v e n i f n o t all citizens h a d e q u a l representation, as v o t i n g
w a s indirect. T h e r e w a s also a large n u m b e r o f slaves crucial f o r p r o duction i n m u c h o fItaly, m a k i n g u p perhaps one-third o fthe population. Slaves o f course h a d n o rights, let a l o n e political representation.
A l l the s a m e , as i n Venice, R o m a n political institutions h a d p l u r a l istic e l e m e n t s . T h e plebeians h a d t h e i r o w n assembly, w h i c h c o u l d
elect the plebeian tribunes, w h o h a d the p o w e r to v e t o actions b y the
magistrates, call t h e P l e b e i a n A s s e m b l y , a n d p r o p o s e legislation. I t
w a s t h e p l e b e i a n s w h o p u t T i b e r i u s G r a c c h u s i n p o w e r i n 1 3 3 BC.

160

W H Y

NATIONS

FAIL

T h e i r p o w e r h a d been forged b y "secession," a f o r m o f strike b y plebeians, particularly soldiers, w h o w o u l d w i t h d r a w t o a hill outside the
city a n d refuse t o cooperate w i t h t h e magistrates until their c o m plaints w e r e dealt w i t h . T h i s threat w a s o f course particularly i m p o r tant d u r i n g a time o fwar. I t w a s supposedly d u r i n g such a secession
i n t h e f i f t h c e n t u r y BC t h a t c i t i z e n s g a i n e d t h e r i g h t t o e l e c t t h e i r t r i bunes a n d enact laws that w o u l d g o v e r n their c o m m u n i t y . T h e i r p o litical a n d legal protection, e v e n i f l i m i t e d b y o u r current standards,
created e c o n o m i c opportunities for citizens a n d s o m e degree o f inclusivity i n e c o n o m i c institutions. A s a result, trade t h r o u g h o u t the M e d iterranean flourished under t h e R o m a n Republic. Archaeological
e v i d e n c e suggests that w h i l e t h e m a j o r i t y o f b o t h citizens a n d slaves
lived n o t m u c h above subsistence level, m a n y Romans, including
s o m e c o m m o n citizens, a c h i e v e d h i g h i n c o m e s , w i t h access t o p u b l i c
services s u c h as a city s e w a g e s y s t e m a n d street l i g h t i n g .
M o r e o v e r , there is evidence that there w a s also s o m e e c o n o m i c
g r o w t h under t h e R o m a n Republic. W e c a n track t h e economic fortunes o f the Romans f r o m shipwrecks. T h e empire t h eRomans built
w a s i n a sense a w e b o fport c i t i e s f r o m Athens, A n t i o c h , a n d Alexa n d r i a i n t h e east; v i a R o m e , C a r t h a g e , a n d C a d i z ; a l l t h e w a y t o L o n d o n i n the far west. A s R o m a n territories e x p a n d e d , s o d i d trade a n d
shipping, w h i c h c a n b e traced f r o m shipwrecks f o u n d b y archaeologists o n t h e f l o o r o f t h e M e d i t e r r a n e a n . T h e s e w r e c k s c a n b e d a t e d i n
m a n y ways. O f t e n the ships carried a m p h o r a e full o f w i n e o r olive oil,
being transported f r o m Italy t o Gaul, o rSpanish olive oil t o b e sold o r
distributed f o r free i n R o m e . A m p h o r a e , sealed vessels m a d e o f clay,
o f t e n c o n t a i n e d i n f o r m a t i o n o n w h o h a d m a d e t h e m a n d w h e n . Just
near t h e r i v e r T i b e r i n R o m e is a s m a l l hill, M o n t e Testaccio, also
k n o w n as M o n t e d e i Cocci ( " P o t t e r y M o u n t a i n " ) , m a d e u p o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y fifty-three m i l l i o n a m p h o r a e . W h e n t h e a m p h o r a e w e r e
u n l o a d e d f r o m ships, they w e r e discarded, over the centuries creating
a huge hill.
O t h e r g o o d s o n t h e ships a n d t h e ship itself c a n s o m e t i m e s b e
dated using radiocarbon dating, a p o w e r f u l technique used b y archaeologists t o date t h e age o f organic remains. Plants create energy
by photosynthesis, w h i c h uses t h e energy f r o m t h es u n t o convert

D R I F T I N G

APART

161

c a r b o n d i o x i d e i n t o sugars. A s t h e y d o this, plants i n c o r p o r a t e a q u a n tity o f a naturally occurring radioisotope, carbon-l4. After plants die,
the carbon-14 deteriorates d u e t o radioactive decay. W h e n archaeologists find a s h i p w r e c k , t h e y c a n d a t e t h e s h i p ' s w o o d b y c o m p a r i n g
the r e m a i n i n g carbon-14 fraction i n it t o that expected f r o m a t m o spheric carbon-l4. T h i s gives a n estimate o f w h e n t h e tree w a s c u t
d o w n . O n l y a b o u t 2 0 s h i p w r e c k s h a v e b e e n d a t e d t o as l o n g a g o as
5 0 0 BC. T h e s e w e r e p r o b a b l y n o t R o m a n s h i p s , a n d c o u l d w e l l h a v e
been Carthaginian, for example. But then the n u m b e r o f R o m a n shipw r e c k s increases rapidly. A r o u n d the t i m e o f the birth o f Christ, they
reached a peak o f 180.
Shipwrecks are a p o w e r f u l w a y o f tracing the economic contours
of t h e R o m a n Republic, a n d they d o s h o w evidence o f s o m e econ o m i c g r o w t h , but they have t o b e kept i n perspective. Probably t w o thirds o f the contents o f the ships w e r e t h e property o f t h e R o m a n
state, taxes a n d t r i b u t e b e i n g b r o u g h t b a c k f r o m t h e p r o v i n c e s t o
R o m e , o r grain a n d olive o i l f r o m N o r t h Africa t o b e h a n d e d o u t free
to t h e citizens o f t h e city. I t is these fruits o f extraction that m o s t l y
constructed M o n t e Testaccio.
A n o t h e r f a s c i n a t i n g w a y t o find e v i d e n c e o f e c o n o m i c g r o w t h i s
f r o m the G r e e n l a n d Ice Core Project. A s s n o w f l a k e s fall, t h e y pick u p
small quantities o fpollution i n the atmosphere, particularly the metals
lead, silver, a n d copper. T h e s n o w freezes a n d piles u p o n t o p o f the
s n o w that fell i n previous years. T h i s process has b e e n g o i n g o n for
m i l l e n n i a , a n d p r o v i d e s a n u n r i v a l e d o p p o r t u n i t y f o r scientists t o u n derstand the extent o f atmospheric p o l l u t i o n thousands o f years ago.
I n 1990-1992 t h e G r e e n l a n d Ice Core Project drilled d o w n t h r o u g h
3,030 meters o f ice covering about 250,000 years o f h u m a n history.
O n e o f t h e m a j o r findings o f t h i s p r o j e c t , a n d o t h e r s p r e c e d i n g i t , w a s
that there w a s a distinct increase i n atmospheric pollutants starting
a r o u n d 5 0 0 BC. A t m o s p h e r i c q u a n t i t i e s o f l e a d , s i l v e r , a n d c o p p e r t h e n
i n c r e a s e d s t e a d i l y , r e a c h i n g a p e a k i n t h e first c e n t u r y AD. R e m a r k ably, this a t m o s p h e r i c q u a n t i t y o f lead is reached again o n l y i n t h e
t h i r t e e n t h c e n t u r y . T h e s e findings s h o w h o w i n t e n s e , c o m p a r e d w i t h
w h a t c a m e b e f o r e a n d after, R o m a n m i n i n g w a s . T h i s u p s u r g e i n m i n ing clearly indicates economic expansion.

162

W H Y

NATIONS

FAIL

But R o m a n g r o w t h was unsustainable, occurring under institutions

that w e r e partially inclusive a n d partially extractive. T h o u g h R o m a n
citizens h a d political a n d e c o n o m i c rights, slavery w a s w i d e s p r e a d a n d
v e r y e x t r a c t i v e , a n d t h e e l i t e , t h e s e n a t o r i a l class, d o m i n a t e d b o t h t h e
e c o n o m y a n d politics. Despite the presence o f the Plebeian A.ssembly
a n d plebeian tribune, for example, real p o w e r rested w i t h t h e Senate,
w h o s e m e m b e r s c a m e f r o m t h e large l a n d o w n e r s constituting t h e senat o r i a l class. A c c o r d i n g t o t h e R o m a n h i s t o r i a n L i v y , t h e S e n a t e w a s c r e ated b y R o m e ' s first k i n g , R o m u l u s , a n d consisted o f o n e h u n d r e d m e n .
T h e i r d e s c e n c i a n t s m a d e u p t h e s e n a t o r i a l class, t h o u g h n e w b l o o d w a s
also added. T h e distribution o f l a n d w a s v e r y unecjual and m o s t likely
b e c a m e m o r e s o b y t h e s e c o n d c e n t u r y HC. T h i s w a s a t t h e r o o t o f t h e
p r o b l e m s that Tiberius Gracchus b r o u g h t t o the fore as tribune.
A s its expansion t h r o u g h o u t t h e IVIediterranean continued, R o m e
experienced a n i n f l u x o f great riches. B u t this b o u n t y w a s captured
mostly b y a f e w w e a l t h y families o f senatorial rank, a n d inequality
b e t w e e n rich a n d p o o r increased. Senators o w e d their w e a l t h n o t
o n l y t o their c o n t r o l o f the lucrative provinces b u t also t o their v e r y
large estates t h r o u g h o u t Italy. T h e s e estates w e r e m a n n e d b y gangs o f
slaves, o f t e n c a p t u r e d i n t h e w a r s that R o m e f o u g h t . B u t w h e r e t h e
l a n d f o r these estates c a m e f r o m w a s e q u a l l y significant. R o m e ' s
armies d u r i n g t h e Republic consisted o f citizen-soldiers w h o w e r e
s m a l l l a n d o w n e r s , first i n R o m e a n d l a t e r i n o t h e r p a r t s o f I t a l y . T r a ditionally they fought i n t h e a r m y w h e n necessary a n d t h e n returned
to their plots. A s R o m e expanded a n d the campaigns g o t longer, this
m o d e l ceased t o w o r k . Soldiers w e r e a w a y f r o m their plots for years
at a t i m e , a n d m a n y l a n d h o l d i n g s f e l l i n t o d i s u s e . T h e s o l d i e r s ' f a m i lies s o m e t i m e s f o u n d t h e m s e l v e s u n d e r m o u n t a i n s o f debt a n d o n t h e
brink o fstarvation. M a n y o f the plots w e r e therefore gradually aband o n e d , a n d absorbed b y t h e estates o f t h e senators. A s the senatorial
class g o t r i c h e r a n d r i c h e r , t h e l a r g e m a s s o f l a n d l e s s c i t i z e n s g a t h e r e d
in R o m e , o f t e n after b e i n g d e c o m m i s s i o n e d f r o m t h e a r m y . W i t h n o
l a n d t o r e t u r n to, t h e y sought w o r k i n R o m e . B y the late s e c o n d cent u r y BC, t h e s i t u a t i o n h a d r e a c h e d a d a n g e r o u s b o i l i n g p o i n t , b o t h
because t h eg a p between rich a n d poor h a d w i d e n e d t o unprecedented levels a n d because there w e r e hordes o f discontented citizens

D R I F T I N G

APART

163

i n R o m e ready t o rebel i n response t o these injustices a n d t u r n against

t h e R o m a n aristocracy. B u t political p o w e r rested w i t h t h e rich l a n d o w n e r s o f t h e s e n a t o r i a l class, w h o w e r e t h e b e n e f i c i a r i e s o f t h e
c h a n g e s t h a t h a d g o n e o n o v e r t h e last t w o c e n t u r i e s . M o s t h a d n o
intention o fchanging the system that h a d served t h e m s o well.
According t o t h e R o m a n historian Plutarch, Tiberius Gracchus,
w h e n traveling t h r o u g h Etruria, a r e g i o n i n w h a t is n o w central Italy,
became aware o f the hardship that families o f citizen-soldiers w e r e
suffering. W h e t h e r because o f this experience o r because o f other
frictions w i t h t h e p o w e r f u l senators o f his time, h e w o u l d s o o n e m bark u p o n a daring plan t o change land allocation i nItaly. H e stood
f o r p l e b e i a n t r i b u n e i n 1 3 3 BC, t h e n u s e d h i s o f f i c e t o p r o p o s e l a n d
reform: a c o m m i s s i o n w o u l d investigate w h e t h e r public lands w e r e
b e i n g illegally occupied a n d w o u l d redistribute l a n d i n excess o f the
legal limit o f three h u n d r e d acres t o landless R o m a n citizens. T h e
t h r e e - h u n d r e d - a c r e l i m i t w a s i n fact part o f a n o l d l a w , t h o u g h i g n o r e d a n d n o t i m p l e m e n t e d f o r centuries. Tiberius Gracchus's prop o s a l sent S h o c k w a v e s t h r o u g h t h e s e n a t o r i a l class, w h o w e r e able t o
block i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f his reforms for a w h i l e . W h e n Tiberius m a n aged t o use the p o w e r o f the m o b supporting h i m t o remove another
tribune w h o threatened t o veto hisland reform, his proposed comm i s s i o n w a s finally f o u n d e d . T h e S e n a t e , t h o u g h , p r e v e n t e d i m p l e mentation b y starving the commission o f funds.
Things came t o a head w h e n Tiberius Gracchus claimed f o r his
l a n d r e f o r m c o m m i s s i o n t h e funds left b y t h e k i n g o f the G r e e k city
P e r g a m u m t o t h e R o m a n people. H e also attempted t o stand for tribune a second time, partly because h e was afraid o f persecution b y
the Senate after h e stepped d o w n . T h i s gave t h e senators t h e pretext
to charge that Tiberius w a s t r y i n g t o declare himself k i n g . H e a n d his
supporters w e r e attacked, a n d m a n y w e r e killed. Tiberius Gracchus
h i m s e l f w a s o n e o f t h e first t o f a l l , t h o u g h h i s d e a t h w o u l d n o t s o l v e
the problem, and others w o u l d attempt t o reform t h edistribution o f
l a n d a n d o t h e r aspects o f R o m a n e c o n o m y a n d society. M a n y w o u l d
meet a similar fate. Tiberius Gracchus's b r o t h e r Gains, f o r e x a m p l e ,
w a s also m u r d e r e d b y l a n d o w n e r s , after h e t o o k t h e m a n t l e f r o m h i s
brother.

164

WHY

NATIONS

FAIL

These tensions w o u l d surface again periodically d u r i n g the n e x t

c e n t u r y f o r e x a m p l e , l e a d i n g t o t h e " S o c i a l W a r " b e t w e e n 9 1 BC a n d
87 B C T h e aggressive defender o f the senatorial interests, Lucius Cornelius Sulla, n o t o n l y viciously suppressed the demands for change
but also severely curtailed the p o w e r s o f the plebeian tribunes. T h e
s a m e issues w o u l d also be a central factor i n the s u p p o r t that Julius
C a e s a r r e c e i v e d f r o m t h e p e o p l e o f R o m e i n h i s fight a g a i n s t t h e
Senate.
T h e political institutions f o r m i n g the core of the R o m a n Republic
w e r e o v e r t h r o w n b y J u l i u s C a e s a r i n 4 9 BC w h e n h e m o v e d h i s l e g i o n
across the R u b i c o n , the river separating the R o m a n provinces o f Cisa l p i n e G a u l f r o m Italy. R o m e fell t o Caesar, a n d a n o t h e r civil w a r
b r o k e out. T h o u g h Caesar w a s victorious, h e w a s m u r d e r e d b y disg r u n t l e d senators, l e d b y B r u t u s a n d Cassius, i n 44 B C T h e R o m a n
Republic w o u l d never be re-created. A n e w civil w a r b r o k e o u t bet w e e n Caesar's supporters, particularly M a r k A n t h o n y a n d O c t a v i a n ,
a n d his foes. After A n t h o n y a n d O c t a v i a n w o n , t h e y f o u g h t each
other, until Octavian emerged t r i u m p h a n t i n the battle o f A c t i u m i n 31
BC. B y t h e f o l l o w i n g y e a r , a n d f o r t h e n e x t f o r t y - f i v e y e a r s , O c t a v i a n ,
k n o w n a f t e r 2 8 BC as A u g u s t u s C a e s a r , r u l e d R o m e a l o n e . A u g u s t u s
created the R o m a n E m p i r e , t h o u g h he preferred the title princeps, a
sort o f "first a m o n g equals," a n d called the regime the Principate. M a p
1 1 s h o w s t h e R o m a n E m p i r e a t its g r e a t e s t e x t e n t i n 1 1 7 AD. I t a l s o
includes the river Rubicon, w h i c h Caesar so fatefuUy crossed.
It w a s this t r a n s i t i o n f r o m r e p u b l i c t o principate, a n d later n a k e d
empire, that laid the seeds o f the decline o f R o m e . T h e partially inclusive political institutions, w h i c h h a d f o r m e d the basis f o r the econ o m i c success, w e r e g r a d u a l l y u n d e r m i n e d . E v e n i f t h e R o m a n
R e p u b l i c c r e a t e d a t i l t e d p l a y i n g field i n f a v o r o f t h e s e n a t o r i a l class
a n d other w e a l t h y R o m a n s , it w a s n o t a n absolutist r e g i m e a n d h a d
never before concentrated so m u c h p o w e r i n o n e position. T h e
c h a n g e s u n l e a s h e d b y A u g u s t u s , as w i t h t h e V e n e t i a n Serrata, w e r e at
first p o l i t i c a l b u t t h e n w o u l d h a v e s i g n i f i c a n t e c o n o m i c c o n s e q u e n c e s .
A s a r e s u l t o f t h e s e c h a n g e s , b y t h e fifth c e n t u r y AD t h e W e s t e r n R o m a n
E m p i r e , as t h e W e s t w a s c a l l e d a f t e r i t s p l i t f r o m t h e E a s t , h a d d e clined economically a n d militarily, a n d w a s o n the b r i n k o f collapse.

166

W H Y

N A T I O N S

. . ROMAN

FAIL

VICES

F l a v i u s A e t i u s w a s o n e o f t h e larger-than-life characters o f t h e late

R o m a n E m p i r e , h a i l e d as " t h e last o f t h e R o m a n s " b y E d w a r d G i b b o n ,
a u t h o r o f The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. B e t w e e n AD 4 3 3
a n d 454, until h e w a s m u r d e r e d b y the e m p e r o r V a l e n t i n i a n I I I , A e tius, a general, w a s probably the m o s t p o w e r f u l p e r s o n i n the R o m a n
Empire. H e shaped both domestic and foreign policy, and fought a
series o f crucial battles against the barbarians, a n d also o t h e r R o m a n s
in civil wars. H e w a s u n i q u e a m o n g p o w e r f u l generals fighting i n civil
wars i n n o t seeking t h e emperorship himself. Since t h e e n d o f the
s e c o n d c e n t u r y , civil w a r h a d b e c o m e a fact o f life i n t h e R o m a n E m p i r e . B e t w e e n t h e d e a t h o f M a r c u s A u r e l i u s i n AD 1 8 0 u n t i l t h e c o l l a p s e o f t h e W e s t e r n R o m a n E m p i r e i n AD 4 7 6 , t h e r e w a s h a r d l y a
decade that d i d n o t see a civil w a r o r a palace c o u p against a n e m peror. F e w e m p e r o r s d i e d o f n a t u r a l causes o r i n battle. M o s t w e r e
murdered b y usurpers o r their o w n troops.
Aetius's career illustrates t h e changes f r o m R o m a n Republic and^
early E m p i r e t o t h e late R o m a n E m p i r e . N o t o n l y d i d his i n v o l v e m e n t
i n incessant civil wars a n d his p o w e r i n every aspect o f the empire's
business contrast w i t h the m u c h m o r e l i m i t e d p o w e r o f generals a n d
senators d u r i n g eariier periods, but it also highlights h o w the fortunes
o f R o m a n s changed radically i n t h e intervening centuries i n other
ways.
B y the late R o m a n E m p i r e , t h e so-called barbarians w h o w e r e i n i tially d o m i n a t e d a n d incorporated i n t o R o m a n armies o r used as
slaves n o w d o m i n a t e d m a n y parts o f the empire. A s a y o u n g m a n ,
A e t i u s h a d b e e n h e l d h o s t a g e b y barbarians, first b y t h e G o t h s u n d e r
Alaric a n d t h e n b y the H u n s . R o m a n relations w i t h these barbarians
are indicative o f h o w things h a d c h a n g e d since the Republic. Alaric
w a s b o t h a ferocious e n e m y a n d a n ally, s o m u c h s o that i n 4 0 5 h e
w a s a p p o i n t e d o n e o f the senior-most generals o f the R o m a n army.
T h e a r r a n g e m e n t w a s t e m p o r a r y , h o w e v e r . B y 4 0 8 , A l a r i c w a s fighting against the R o m a n s , i n v a d i n g Italy a n d sacking R o m e .

D R I F T I N G

APART

167

T h e H u n s w e r e also b o t h p o w e r f u l foes a n d frequent allies o f the

Romans. T h o u g h they, too, h e l d Aetius hostage, they later f o u g h t
alongside h i m i n a civil w a r . B u t t h e H u n s d i d n o t stay l o n g o n o n e
side, a n d u n d e r Attila t h e y f o u g h t a m a j o r battle against t h e R o m a n s
i n 4 5 1 , just across the R h i n e . T h i s t i m e d e f e n d i n g t h e R o m a n s w e r e
the Goths, under Theodoric.
A l l o f this d i d n o t stop R o m a n elites f r o m t r y i n g t o appease barbarian commanders, often not to protect R o m a n territories but to gain the
u p p e r h a n d i n internal p o w e r struggles. For e x a m p l e , t h e Vandals,
u n d e r their k i n g , Geiseric, ravaged large parts o f the Iberian Peninsula
and then conquered the R o m a n bread baskets i n N o r t h Africa f r o m
429 o n w a r d . T h e R o m a n response t othis w a s t ooffer Geiseric t h e
e m p e r o r Valentinian Ill's child daughter as a bride. Geiseric w a s at the
t i m e m a r r i e d t o the daughter o f o n e o f the leaders o f the G o t h s , b u t
this does n o t s e e m t o have stopped h i m . H e annulled h i s marriage
u n d e r the pretext that his w i f e w a s trying t o m u r d e r h i m a n d sent her
back t o her f a m i l y after m u t i l a t i n g her b y cutting o f f b o t h her ears a n d
her nose. Fortunately for the bride-to-be, because o f her y o u n g age
she w a s kept i n Italy a n d never c o n s u m m a t e d h e r marriage t o Geiseric. Later s h e w o u l d m a r r y a n o t h e r p o w e r f u l g e n e r a l , P e t r o n i u s
Maximus, t h e mastermind o fthe murder o f Aetius b yt h e emperor
Valentinian I I I , w h o w o u l d himself shortly b e murdered i n a plot
hatched b y M a x i m u s . M a x i m u s later declared h i m s e l f e m p e r o r , b u t his
reign w o u l d b e very short, ended b y his death d u r i n g the major offensive b y the Vandals u n d e r Geiseric against Italy, w h i c h s a w R o m e
fall a n d savagely plundered.

T H E EARLY
fifth c e n t u r y , t h e b a r b a r i a n s w e r e l i t e r a l l y a t t h e
gate. S o m e historians argue that i t w a s a c o n s e q u e n c e o f the m o r e
f o r m i d a b l e o p p o n e n t s t h e R o m a n s faced d u r i n g the late E m p i r e . B u t
the success o f t h e G o t h s , H u n s , a n d Vandals against R o m e w a s a
s y m p t o m , n o t t h e cause, o f Rome's decline. D u r i n g t h e Republic,
R o m e had dealt w i t h m u c h m o r e organized and threatening o p p o nents, such as t h e Carthaginians. T h e decline o f R o m e h a d causes

B Y

168

W H Y N A T I O N S

FAIL

v e r y s i m i l a r t o t h o s e o f t h e M a y a city-states. R o m e ' s increasingly e x tractive political a n d economic institutions generated its demise b e cause they caused infighting a n d civil war.
T h e o r i g i n s o f t h e d e c l i n e g o b a c k a t least t o A u g u s t u s ' s s e i z u r e
o f power, w h i c h set i n m o t i o n changes that m a d e political institutions m u c h m o r e extractive. These included changes i n t h e structure
o f the army, w h i c h made secession impossible, thus r e m o v i n g a crucial e l e m e n t that e n s u r e d political representation f o r c o m m o n R o m a n s . T h e e m p e r o r T i b e r i u s , w h o f o l l o w e d A u g u s t u s i n AD 1 4 ,
abolished t h e Plebeian Assembly a n d transferred its p o w e r s t o t h e
Senate. Instead o f a political voice, R o m a n citizens n o w h a d free
handouts o fw h e a t and, subsequently, olive oil, w i n e , and pork, a n d
w e r e k e p t entertained b y circuses a n d gladiatorial contests. W i t h A u gustus's r e f o r m s , e m p e r o r s began t o rely n o t s o m u c h o n t h e a r m y
m a d e u p o f citizen-soldiers, b u t o n t h e Praetorian G u a r d , t h e elite
g r o u p o f professional soldiers created b y A u g u s t u s . T h e G u a r d itself
w o u l d soon become a nimportant independent broker o fw h o w o u l d
b e c o m e emperor, often t h r o u g h n o t peaceful means b u t civil wars
a n d intrigue. A u g u s t u s also strengthened the aristocracy against c o m m o n R o m a n citizens, a n d t h e g r o w i n g inequality that h a d u n d e r p i n n e d t h e conflict b e t w e e n T i b e r i u s Gracchus a n d t h e aristocrats
continued, perhaps even strengthened.
T h e accumulation o f p o w e r at the center m a d e the property rights
o f c o m m o n R o m a n s less s e c u r e . State l a n d s also e x p a n d e d w i t h t h e
e m p i r e as a c o n s e q u e n c e o f confiscation, a n d g r e w t o as m u c h as h a l f
o f the l a n d i n m a n y parts o f the e m p i r e . P r o p e r t y rights b e c a m e particulariy unstable because o f the concentration o f p o w e r i n the hands
o f the e m p e r o r a n d his entourage. I n a pattern n o t too different f r o m
w h a t h a p p e n e d i n t h e M a y a city-states, i n f i g h t i n g t o t a k e c o n t r o l o f
this p o w e r f u l p o s i t i o n increased. Civil w a r s b e c a m e a regular occurr e n c e , e v e n b e f o r e t h e c h a o t i c fifth c e n t u r y , w h e n t h e b a r b a r i a n s
ruled supreme. F o r example, Septimius Severus seized p o w e r f r o m
D i d i u s Julianus, w h o h a d m a d e h i m s e l f e m p e r o r after the m u r d e r o f
P e r t i n a x i n AD 1 9 3 . S e v e r u s , t h e t h i r d e m p e r o r i n t h e s o - c a l l e d Y e a r o f
the Five E m p e r o r s , t h e n w a g e d w a r against h i s rival claimants, t h e
g e n e r a l s P e s c e n n i u s N i g e r a n d C l o d i u s A l b i n u s , w h o w e r e finally d e -

D R I F T I N G

APART

169

f e a t e d i n AD 1 9 4 a n d 1 9 7 , r e s p e c t i v e l y . S e v e r u s c o n f i s c a t e d a l l t h e
property o f his losing opponents i n t h e easuing civil war. T h o u g h
a b l e r u l e r s , s u c h a s T r a j a n (AD 9 8 t o 1 1 7 ) , H a d r i a n , a n d M a r c u s A u r e lius i n t h e next century, could stanch decline, they c o u l d not, o r d i d
not w a n t to, address the fundamental institutional problems. N o n e o f
these m e n proposed abandoning t h e empire o r re-creating effective
political institutions along t h e lines o f t h e R o m a n Republic. Marcus
Aurelius, f o r all his'successes, w a s f o l l o w e d b y h i s s o n C o m m o d u s ,
w h o w a s m o r e l i k e Caligula o r N e r o t h a n his father.
T h e rising instability w a s evident f r o m t h e layout and location o f
t o w n s a n d c i t i e s i n t h e e m p i r e . B y t h e t h i r d c e n t u r y AD e v e r y s i z e a b l e
city i n t h e e m p i r e h a d a d e f e n s i v e w a l l . I n m a n y cases m o n u m e n t s
w e r e plundered for stone, w h i c h was used i n fortifications. I n G a u l
b e f o r e t h e R o m a n s h a d a r r i v e d i n 1 2 5 BC, i t w a s u s u a l t o b u i l d s e t t l e m e n t s o n hilltops, since these w e r e m o r e easily defended. W i t h t h e
initial arrival o f R o m e , settlements m o v e d d o w n t o t h e plains. I n t h e
third century, this trend w a s reversed.
A l o n g w i t h m o u n t i n g political instability came changes i n society
that m o v e d e c o n o m i c institutions t o w a r d greater extraction. T h o u g h
c i t i z e n s h i p w a s e x p a n d e d t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t b y AD 2 1 2 n e a r l y a l l t h e
inhabitants o f the e m p i r e w e r e citizens, this change w e n t a l o n g w i t h
c h a n g e s i n status b e t w e e n citizens. A n y sense that there m i g h t h a v e
been o f equality before t h e l a wdeteriorated. F o r example, b y t h e
r e i g n o f H a d r i a n (AD 1 1 7 t o 1 3 8 ) , t h e r e w e r e c l e a r d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e
types o f l a w s a p p l i e d t o different categories o f R o m a n citizen. Just as
important, t h e role o f citizens w a s c o m p l e t e l y different f r o m h o w i t
h a d b e e n i n the days o f the R o m a n Republic, w h e n they w e r e able t o
exercise some p o w e r over political a n d economic decisions t h r o u g h
the assemblies i n Rome.
Slavery remained a constant t h r o u g h o u t Rome, t h o u g h there is
s o m e c o n t r o v e r s y o v e r w h e t h e r t h e f r a c t i o n o f slaves i n t h e p o p u l a tion actually declined over t h e centuries. Equally important, as t h e
empire developed, m o r e and m o r e agricultural workers w e r e reduced
t o semi-servile status a n d t i e d t o t h e l a n d . T h e status o f these servile
"coloni" i s e x t e n s i v e l y d i s c u s s e d i n l e g a l d o c u m e n t s s u c h a s t h e Codex
Theodosianus a n d CodexJustinianus, a n d p r o b a b l y o r i g i n a t e d d u r i n g

170

W H Y N A T I O N S

FAIL

t h e r e i g n o f D i o c l e t i a n (AD 2 8 4 t o 3 0 5 ) . T h e r i g h t s o f l a n d l o r d s o v e r
t h e coloni w e r e p r o g r e s s i v e l y i n c r e a s e d . T h e e m p e r o r C o n s t a n t i n e i n
3 3 2 a l l o w e d l a n d l o r d s t o c h a i n a colonus w h o m t h e y s u s p e c t e d w a s
t r y i n g t o e s c a p e , a n d f r o m AD 3 6 5 , coloni w e r e n o t a l l o w e d t o s e l l
their o w n property w i t h o u t their landlord's permission.
Just as w e can use s h i p w r e c k s a n d the G r e e n l a n d ice cores t o track
the e c o n o m i c e x p a n s i o n o f R o m e d u r i n g eariier periods, w e c a n u s e
t h e m a l s o t o t r a c e i t s d e c l i n e . B y AD 5 0 0 t h e p e a k o f 1 8 0 s h i p s w a s
reduced t o 20. A s R o m e declined, Mediterranean trade collapsed, and
s o m e scholars have e v e n argued that it d i d n o t r e t u r n t o its R o m a n
h e i g h t u n t i l t h e n i n e t e e n t h century. T h e G r e e n l a n d ice tells a similar
story. T h e R o m a n s used silver f o r coins, a n d lead h a d m a n y uses,
i n c l u d i n g f o r pipes a n d tableware. A f t e r p e a k i n g i n t h e first cent u r y AD, t h e d e p o s i t s o f l e a d , s i l v e r , a n d c o p p e r i n t h e i c e c o r e s d e clined.
T h e experience o f economic g r o w t h during t h e R o m a n Republic
w a s impressive, as w e r e other examples o f g r o w t h under extractive
institutions, such as the Soviet U n i o n . But that g r o w t h w a s limited a n d
w a s n o t sustained, e v e n w h e n i t is t a k e n i n t o account that it occurred
under partially inclusive institutions. G r o w t h was based o n relatively
h i g h agricultural productivity, significant tribute f r o m t h e provinces,
a n d long-distance trade, b u t it w a s n o t u n d e r p i n n e d b y technological
progress o r creative destruction. T h e R o m a n s i n h e r i t e d s o m e basic
technologies, i r o n tools a n d w e a p o n s , literacy, p l o w agriculture, a n d
building techniques. Early o n i n the Republic, they created others: cem e n t m a s o n r y , p u m p s , a n d the w a t e r w h e e l . B u t thereafter, technology w a s stagnant t h r o u g h o u t t h e period o f t h e R o m a n E m pi r e. I n
shipping, f o r instance, there w a s little c h a n g e i n ship design o r rigg i n g , a n d t h e R o m a n s n e v e r d e v e l o p e d t h e s t e r n rudder, instead steering ships w i t h oars. W a t e r w h e e l s spread v e r y s l o w l y , s o that w a t e r
p o w e r n e v e r r e v o l u t i o n i z e d t h e R o m a n e c o n o m y . E v e n such great
a c h i e v e m e n t s as aqueducts a n d city sewers u s e d existing t e c h n o l o g y ,
t h o u g h t h e Romans perfected it. There could b e some economic
g r o w t h w i t h o u t i n n o v a t i o n , relying o n existing technology, b u t it w a s
g r o w t h w i t h o u t c r e a t i v e d e s t r u c t i o n . A n d i t d i d n o t last. A s p r o p e r t y
rights b e c a m e m o r e i n s e c u r e a n d t h e e c o n o m i c r i g h t s o f c i t i z e n s f o l -

D R I F T I N G

APART

171

l o w e d t h e decline o f their political rights, e c o n o m i c g r o w t h likewise

declined.
A remarkable thing about n e w technologies i n the R o m a n period
is t h a t t h e i r c r e a t i o n a n d s p r e a d s e e m t o h a v e b e e n d r i v e n b y t h e
state. T h i s is g o o d n e w s , u n t i l t h e g o v e r n m e n t d e c i d e s t h a t i t is n o t
interested i n technological d e v e l o p m e n t a n a l l - t o o - c o m m o n occurrence d u e t o the fear o f creative destruction. T h e great R o m a n w r i t e r
P l i n y t h e Elder relates t h e f o l l o w i n g story. D u r i n g t h e r e i g n o f t h e
e m p e r o r T i b e r i u s , a m a n i n v e n t e d u n b r e a k a b l e glass a n d w e n t t o the
e m p e r o r anticipating that h e w o u l d g e t a great r e w a r d . H e d e m o n strated h i s i n v e n t i o n , a n d Tiberius asked h i m i f h e h a d t o l d a n y o n e
else a b o u t it. W h e n the m a n r e p l i e d n o , T i b e r i u s h a d the m a n dragged
a w a y a n d k i l l e d , "lest g o l d b e r e d u c e d t o t h e v a l u e o f m u d . " T h e r e a r e
t w o interesting things a b o u t this story. First, t h e m a n w e n t t o T i b e r i u s
i n t h e first p l a c e f o r a r e w a r d , r a t h e r t h a n s e t t i n g h i m s e l f u p i n b u s i ness a n d m a k i n g a p r o f i t b y selling t h e glass. T h i s s h o w s t h e r o l e o f
the R o m a n government i n controlling technology. Second, Tiberius
w a s h a p p y t o destroy t h e i n n o v a t i o n because o f t h e adverse econ o m i c effects i t w o u l d h a v e h a d . T h i s is t h e fear o f the e c o n o m i c effects o f creative d e s t r u c t i o n .
T h e r e is also direct evidence f r o m the p e r i o d o f the E m p i r e o f the
fear o f the political c o n s e q u e n c e s o f creative destruction. Suetonius
t e l l s h o w t h e e m p e r o r V e s p a s i a n , w h o r u l e d b e t w e e n AD 6 9 a n d 7 9 ,
was approached b y a m a n w h o had invented a device for transporting
c o l u m n s t o t h e C a p i t o l , t h e citadel o f R o m e , at a relatively s m a l l cost.
C o l u m n s w e r e large, heavy, a n d v e r y difficult t o transport. M o v i n g
them t o Rome from the mines where they were made involved the
labor o f thousands o f people, a t great e x p e n s e t o t h e g o v e r n m e n t .
Vespasian did n o t kill the m a n , but h e also refused t o u s e the i n n o v a tion, declaring, " H o w w i l l it b e possible for m e t o feed the populace?"
A g a i n a n inventor came t o t h e government. Perhaps this w a s m o r e
n a t u r a l t h a n w i t h t h e u n b r e a k a b l e glass, as t h e R o m a n g o v e r n m e n t
was most heavily involved w i t h c o l u m n m i n i n g a n d transportation.
A g a i n t h e i n n o v a t i o n w a s t u r n e d d o w n because o f the threat o f creative destruction, n o t s om u c h because o f its e c o n o m i c impact, b u t
because o f fear o f political creative destruction. Vespasian w a s

172

W H Y

NATIONS

F A I L

concerned that unless h e kept the people h a p p y and under control it

w o u l d b e politically destabilizing. T h e R o m a n plebeians had t o b e
k e p t busy a n d pliant, s o it w a s g o o d t o have jobs t o give t h e m , such
as m o v i n g c o l u m n s a b o u t . T h i s c o m p l e m e n t e d t h e b r e a d a n d c i r cuses, w h i c h w e r e also dispensed f o r free t o k e e p t h e p o p u l a t i o n
content. I t is perhaps telling that b o t h o f these e x a m p l e s c a m e s o o n
after the collapse o f the Republic. T h e R o m a n e m p e r o r s h a d far m o r e
p o w e r t o block change than the R o m a n rulers during the Republic.
A n o t h e r i m p o r t a n t reason for the lack o f technological i n n o v a t i o n
w a s t h e prevalence o f slavery. A s t h e territories R o m a n s controlled
expanded, vast n u m b e r s w e r e enslaved, o f t e n being b r o u g h t back t o
I t a l y t o w o r k o n large estates. M a n y citizens i n R o m e d i d n o t n e e d t o
w o r k : they lived off the handouts f r o m the government. W h e r e was
innovation t o come from? W e have argued that innovation comes
f r o m n e w p e o p l e w i t h n e w ideas, d e v e l o p i n g n e w s o l u t i o n s t o o l d
p r o b l e m s . I n R o m e t h e p e o p l e d o i n g t h e p r o d u c i n g w e r e slaves a n d ,
l a t e r , s e m i - s e r v i l e coloni w i t h f e w i n c e n t i v e s t o i n n o v a t e , s i n c e i t w a s
their masters, n o t they, w h o stood t o benefit f r o m a n y i n n o v a t i o n . A s
w e w i l l see m a n y times i n this b o o k , economies based o n the repress i o n o f labor a n d systems s u c h as slavery a n d s e r f d o m are n o t o r i o u s l y
n o n i n n o v a t i v e . T h i s is t r u e f r o m t h e ancient w o r l d t o the m o d e r n era.
I n t h e U n i t e d States, f o r e x a m p l e , t h e n o r t h e r n s t a t e s t o o k p a r t i n t h e
Industrial Revolution, not the South. O f course slavery a n d s e r f d o m
created h u g e w e a l t h f o r those w h o o w n e d t h e slaves a n d c o n t r o l l e d
t h e serfs, b u t i t d i d n o t create t e c h n o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n o r p r o s p e r i t y
for society.
N o

ONE

WRITES

FROM

VINDOLANDA

B y AD 4 3 t h e R o m a n e m p e r o r C l a u d i u s h a d c o n q u e r e d E n g l a n d , b u t
n o t S c o t l a n d . A last, f u t i l e a t t e m p t w a s m a d e b y t h e R o m a n g o v e r n o r
A g r i c o l a , w h o g a v e u p a n d , i n AD 8 5 , b u i l t a s e r i e s o f f o r t s t o p r o t e c t
England's n o r t h e r n border. O n e o fthe biggest o f these w a s at V i n d o l anda, thirty-five miles west o f Newcastle a n ddepicted o n M a p 11
( p a g e 165) at t h e far n o r t h w e s t o f t h e R o m a n E m p i r e . Later, V i n d o l anda w a s incorporated into t h e eighty-five-mile defensive wall that

D R I F T I N G

APART

173

t h e e m p e r o r H a d r i a n c o n s t r u c t e d , b u t i n AD 1 0 3 , w h e n a R o m a n c e n turion, Candidus, w a s stationed there, it w a s a n isolated fort. C a n d i dus was engaged w i t h hisfriend Octavius i n supplying t h e R o m a n
g a r r i s o n a n d received a r e p l y f r o m O c t a v i u s t o a letter h e h a d sent:
Octavius t o his brother Candidus, greetings.
I have several times written t oy o u that I have bought
a b o u t five t j i o u s a n d m o d i i o f e a r s o f g r a i n , o n a c c o u n t
of w h i c h I n e e d cash. Unless y o u send m e s o m e cash,
a t l e a s t five h u n d r e d d e n a r i i , t h e r e s u l t w i l l b e t h a t I
shall lose w h a t I h a v e l a i d o u t as a deposit, a b o u t
three h u n d r e d denarii, and I shall b e embarrassed. So,
I ask y o u , s e n d m e s o m e cash as s o o n as possible. T h e
hides w h i c h y o u write are at C a t a r a c t o n i u m w r i t e
that they b e given t o m e and the w a g o n about w h i c h
y o u w r i t e . I w o u l d have already b e e n t o collect t h e m
except that I d i d n o t care t o injure the animals w h i l e
the roads are bad. See w i t h Tertius about the 8 % d e narii w h i c h h e received f r o m Fatalis. H e h a s n o t credited t h e m t o m y account. M a k e sure that y o u send m e
cash s o that I m a y h a v e ears o f g r a i n o n the threshingfloor. Greet Spectatus a n d F i r m u s . F a r e w e l l .
T h e correspondence b e t w e e n Candidus a n d Octavius illustrates
s o m e significant facets o f the e c o n o m i c prosperity o f R o m a n E n g l a n d :
I t r e v e a l s a n a d v a n c e d m o n e t a r y e c o n o m y w i t h financial s e r v i c e s . I t
reveals the presence o f constructed roads, e v e n i f sometimes i n b a d
c o n d i t i o n . I t r e v e a l s t h e p r e s e n c e o f a fiscal s y s t e m t h a t r a i s e d t a x e s
to p a y Candidus's wages. M o s t o b v i o u s l y it reveals that b o t h m e n
w e r e literate a n d w e r e able t o take advantage o f a postal service o f
sorts. R o m a n E n g l a n d also b e n e f i t e d f r o m t h e mass m a n u f a c t u r e o f
high-quality pottery, particularly i n O x f o r d s h i r e ; u r b a n centers w i t h
baths and public buildings; and house construction techniques using
m o r t a r a n d tiles f o r roofs.
B y t h e f o u r t h c e n t u r y , a l l w e r e i n d e c l i n e , a n d a f t e r AD 4 1 1 t h e
R o m a n E m p i r e gave u p o n England. T r o o p s w e r e w i t h d r a w n ; those

174

W H Y

NATIONS

FAIL

left w e r e n o t p a i d , a n d as t h e R o m a n state c r u m b l e d , a d m i n i s t r a t o r s
w e r e e x p e l l e d b y t h e l o c a l p o p u l a t i o n . B y AD 4 5 0 a l l t h e s e t r a p p i n g s
of economic prosperity w e r e gone. M o n e y vanished f r o m circulation.
U r b a n areas w e r e abandoned, a n d buildings stripped o f stone. T h e
roads w e r e o v e r g r o w n w i t h weeds. T h e o n l y type o f pottery fabricated w a s crude a n d handmade, n o t manufactured. People forgot
h o w t o u s e mortar, a n d literacy declined substantially. Roofs w e r e
m a d e o f branches, n o t tiles. N o b o d y w r o t e f r o m V i n d o l a n d a anymore.
A f t e r AD 4 1 1 , E n g l a n d e x p e r i e n c e d a n e c o n o m i c c o l l a p s e a n d b e c a m e a p o o r b a c k w a t e r a n d n o t f o r t h e first t i m e . I n t h e p r e v i o u s
chapter w e saw h o w t h e Neolithic R e v o l u t i o n started i n t h e M i d d l e
East a r o u n d 9 5 0 0 B C W h i l e t h e i n h a b i t a n t s o f J e r i c h o a n d A b u H u r e y r a
were living i n small t o w n s and farming, t h einhabitants o f England
w e r e still h u n t i n g a n d g a t h e r i n g , a n d w o u l d d o s o f o r at least a n o t h e r
5,500 years. E v e n t h e n the English didn't invent f a r m i n g o r herding;
these w e r e b r o u g h t f r o m t h e outside b y migrants w h o h a d been
spreading across E u r o p e f r o m t h e M i d d l e East f o r t h o u s a n d s o f years.
A s the inhabitants o f E n g l a n d caught u p w i t h these m a j o r innovations,
t h o s e i n t h e M i d d l e East w e r e i n v e n t i n g cities, w r i t i n g , a n d p o t t e r y . B y
3 5 0 0 BC, l a r g e c i t i e s s u c h a s U r u k a n d U r e m e r g e d i n M e s o p o t a m i a ,
m o d e r n Iraq. U r u k m a y have had a population o ffourteen thousand
i n 3 5 0 0 BC, a n d f o r t y t h o u s a n d s o o n a f t e r w a r d . T h e p o t t e r ' s w h e e l w a s
i n v e n t e d i n M e s o p o t a m i a at a b o u t t h e s a m e t i m e as w a s w h e e l e d
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . T h e E g y p t i a n capital o f M e m p h i s e m e r g e d as a large
city s o o n thereafter. W r i t i n g appeared i n d e p e n d e n t l y i n b o t h regions.
W h i l e the Egyptians w e r e b u i l d i n g the great p y r a m i d s o f Giza a r o u n d
2 5 0 0 BC, t h e E n g l i s h c o n s t r u c t e d t h e i r m o s t f a m o u s a n c i e n t m o n u m e n t , t h e stone circle at S t o n e h e n g e . N o t b a d b y E n g l i s h standards,
but n o t e v e n large e n o u g h t o h a v e h o u s e d o n e o f t h e ceremonial
boats b u r i e d at the foot o f K i n g K h u f u ' s p y r a m i d . E n g l a n d c o n t i n u e d
t o lag b e h i n d a n d t o b o r r o w f r o m t h e M i d d l e East a n d t h e rest o f E u rope u pt o and including the R o m a n period.
Despite such a n inauspicious history, it w a s i n England that t h e
first t r u l y i n c l u s i v e s o c i e t y e m e r g e d a n d w h e r e t h e I n d u s t r i a l R e v o l u t i o n got u n d e r w a y . W eargued eariier (pages 102-113) that this w a s

D R I F T I N G

APART

175

the result o f a series o f interactions b e t w e e n s m a l l institutional differences a n d critical j u n c t u r e s f o r e x a m p l e , t h e Black D e a t h a n d t h e

discovery of the Americas. English divergence had historical roots, but
the v i e w f r o m V i n d o l a n d a suggests that these roots w e r e n o t that
deep a n d certainly n o t historically predetermined. T h e y w e r e n o t
planted i n t h e Neolithic Revolution, o r even during the centuries o f
R o m a n h e g e m o n y . B y AD 4 5 0 , a t t h e s t a r t o f w h a t h i s t o r i a n s u s e d t o
call the D a r k Ages, E n g l a n d h a d slipped b a c k i n t o p o v e r t y a n d political chaos. T h e r e w o u l d b e n o effective c e n t r a l i z e d state i n E n g l a n d
for h u n d r e d s o f years.
DIVERGING

PATHS

T h e rise o f i n c l u s i v e i n s t i t u t i o n s a n d t h e subsequent i n d u s t r i a l g r o w t h
i n E n g l a n d d i d n o t f o l l o w as a d i r e c t l e g a c y o f R o m a n ( o r e a r i i e r ) i n stitutions. This does n o t m e a n that n o t h i n g significant h a p p e n e d w i t h
the fall o f the W e s t e r n R o m a n E m p i r e , a major event affecting m o s t o f
E u r o p e . Since different parts o f E u r o p e shared the same critical junctures, their institutions w o u l d drift i n a similar fashion, perhaps i n a
distinctively E u r o p e a n w a y . T h e fall o f the R o m a n E m p i r e w a s a crucial part o f these c o m m o n critical junctures. T h i s E u r o p e a n p a t h c o n trasts w i t h p a t h s i n o t h e r parts o f t h e w o r l d , i n c l u d i n g s u b - S a h a r a n
Africa, Asia, a n dt h e Americas, w h i c h developed differently partly
because t h e y d i d n o t face the s a m e critical junctures.
R o m a n E n g l a n d c o l l a p s e d w i t h a b a n g . T h i s w a s less t r u e i n Italy,
or R o m a n G a u l ( m o d e r n France), o r even N o r t h Africa, w h e r e m a n y
o f the o l d institutions l i v e d o n i n s o m e f o r m . Y e t there is n o d o u b t
that t h e c h a n g e f r o m t h e d o m i n a n c e o f a single R o m a n state t o a
p l e t h o r a o f states r u n b y F r a n k s , V i s i g o t h s , O s t r o g o t h s , V a n d a l s , a n d
B u r g u n d i a n s w a s significant. T h e p o w e r o f these states w a s f a r
w e a k e r , a n d t h e y w e r e b u f f e t e d b y a l o n g series o f incursions f r o m
their peripheries. F r o m the north came the Vikings and Danes i n their
longboats. F r o m t h e east c a m e t h e H u n n i c h o r s e m e n . F i n a l l y , t h e
e m e r g e n c e o f I s l a m as a r e l i g i o n a n d political force i n t h e c e n t u r y
a f t e r t h e d e a t h o f M o h a m m e d i n AD 6 3 2 l e d t o t h e c r e a t i o n o f n e w
I s l a m i c states i n m o s t o f t h e B y z a n t i n e E m p i r e , N o r t h A f r i c a , a n d

176

W H Y

NATIONS

D R I F T I N G

FAIL

Spain. These c o m m o n processes rocked Europe, a n d i n their w a k e a

particular type o f society, c o m m o n l y referred t o as feudal, emerged.
F e u d a l society w a s d e c e n t r a l i z e d b e c a u s e s t r o n g central states h a d
atrophied, e v e n if s o m e rulers such as C h a r l e m a g n e attempted t o reconstruct t h e m .
Feudal institutions, w h i c h relied o n unfree, coerced labor (the
serfs), w e r e o b v i o u s l y extractive, a n d t h e y f o r m e d t h e basis f o r a l o n g
period o f extractive and s l o w g r o w t h i n Europe d u r i n g the Middle
Ages. B u t t h e y also w e r e consequential f o r later d e v e l o p m e n t s . F o r
instance, d u r i n g t h e r e d u c t i o n o f t h e r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n t o t h e status o f
serfs, s l a v e r y d i s a p p e a r e d f r o m E u r o p e . A t a t i m e w h e n it w a s possible f o r elites t o r e d u c e t h e entire rural p o p u l a t i o n t o s e r f d o m , i t d i d
n o t s e e m n e c e s s a r y t o h a v e a separate class o f slaves as e v e r y p r e v i ous society h a d had. F e u d a l i s m also created a p o w e r v a c u u m i n
w h i c h i n d e p e n d e n t cities specializing i n p r o d u c t i o n a n d trade c o u l d
flourish. B u t w h e n the balance o f p o w e r changed after the Black
D e a t h , a n d s e r f d o m b e g a n t o c r u m b l e i n W e s t e r n E u r o p e , t h e stage
w a s set f o r a m u c h m o r e p l u r a l i s t i c s o c i e t y w i t h o u t t h e p r e s e n c e o f
a n y slaves.
T h e critical junctures that g a v e rise t o f e u d a l society w e r e distinct,
but t h e y w e r e n o t completely restricted t o Europe. A relevant c o m parison isw i t h the m o d e r n African country of Ethiopia, w h i c h developed f r o m the K i n g d o m o f A k s u m , founded i n the n o r t h o f the
country a r o u n d 400 B C A k s u m w a s a relatively developed k i n g d o m
f o r its t i m e a n d e n g a g e d i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a d e w i t h I n d i a , A r a b i a ,
Greece, a n d the R o m a n E m p i r e . It w a s i n m a n y w a y s comparable t o
the Eastern R o m a n E m p i r e i n this period. It used m o n e y , built m o n u mental public buildings a n d roads, and h a d v e r y similar technology,
for e x a m p l e , i n agriculture a n d shipping. T h e r e are also interesting
ideological parallels b e t w e e n A k s u m a n d R o m e . I n A D 312, the R o m a n
e m p e r o r Constantine converted t o Christianity, as d i d K i n g Ezana o f
A k s u m about the same time. M a p 12(opposite) shows the location of
t h e historical state o f A k s u m i n m o d e r n - d a y E t h i o p i a a n d Eritrea, w i t h
o u t p o s t s across t h e R e d Sea i n S a u d i A r a b i a a n d Y e m e n .
Just a s R o m e d e c l i n e d , s o d i d A k s u m , a n d its h i s t o r i c a l d e c l i n e f o l l o w e d a pattern close t o that o f the Western R o m a n E m p i r e . T h e role

APART

177

played by the H u n s and Vandals i n the decline of R o m e w a s taken by

the Arabs, w h o , i n the seventh century, expanded into the Red Sea
a n d d o w n t h e A r a b i a n P e n i n s u l a . A k s u m l o s t its c o l o n i e s i n A r a b i a
a n d its trade routes. This precipitated economic decline: m o n e y
stopped being coined, the u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n fell, a n d there w a s a refocusing o f the state i n t o the i n t e r i o r o f t h e c o u n t r y a n d u p i n t o the
highlands of m o d e r n Ethiopia.

Saudi Arabia
\d

Sudan

Sea

\n
Yemen

f Eritreaj

Somalia

Addis Ababa
A

Etliiopia

an Ocean

H'^"iye

D.gil

M4;,jhu

Kenva
Aksum
Peripheral Aksum
Somali ethnic limits
Tanzania

Modern boundaries

Map 1 2 : The Aksum Empire and the Somali clan families

178

W H Y NATIONS

F A I L

I n E u r o p e , feudal institutions emerged f o l l o w i n g t h e collapse o f

c e n t r a l state a u t h o r i t y . T h e s a m e t h i n g h a p p e n e d i n E t h i o p i a , b a s e d
o n a s y s t e m c a l l e d gult, w h i c h i n v o l v e d a g r a n t o f l a n d b y t h e e m peror. T h e institution is m e n t i o n e d i n thirteenth-century manuscripts,
t h o u g h i t m a y h a v e o r i g i n a t e d m u c h e a r l i e r . T h e t e r m gult i s d e r i v e d
f r o m a n A m h a r i c w o r d m e a n i n g " h e assigned a lief." I t signified that
i n e x c h a n g e f o r t h e l a n d , t h e gult h o l d e r h a d t o p r o v i d e s e r v i c e s t o
t h e e m p e r o r , p a r t i c u l a r l y m i l i t a r y o n e s . I n t u r n , t h e gult h o l d e r h a d
the right t o extract tribute f r o m those w h o f a r m e d the land. A variety
o f h i s t o r i c a l s o u r c e s s u g g e s t t h a t gult h o l d e r s e x t r a c t e d b e t w e e n o n e half a n d three-quarters o f t h e agricultural o u t p u t o f peasants. T h i s
system w a s a n independent development w i t h notable similarities t o
E u r o p e a n feudalism, but probably e v e n m o r e extractive. A t the height
o f f e u d a l i s m i n E n g l a n d , serfs f a c e d less o n e r o u s e x t r a c t i o n a n d lost
about half o f their output t o their lords i n one f o r m o r another.
But Ethiopia w a s not representative o f Africa. Elsewhere, slavery
w a s not replaced b y serfdom; African slavery and the institutions that
supported it w e r e t o continue for m a n y m o r e centuries. E v e n Ethiopia's u l t i m a t e p a t h w o u l d b e v e r y different. A f t e r t h e s e v e n t h century,
E t h i o p i a r e m a i n e d isolated i n t h e m o u n t a i n s o f East A f r i c a f r o m t h e
processes that subsequently influenced t h e institutional path o f E u r o p e , s u c h as t h e e m e r g e n c e o f i n d e p e n d e n t cities, t h e n a s c e n t c o n straints o n m o n a r c h s a n d t h e e x p a n s i o n o f Atlantic trade after t h e
discovery o f the Americas. I n consequence, its version o f absolutist
institutions remained largely unchallenged. T h e African continent
w o u l d later interact i n a v e r y different capacity w i t h E u r o p e a n d Asia.
East A f r i c a b e c a m e a m a j o r s u p p l i e r o f slaves t o t h e A r a b w o r l d , a n d
West and Central Africa w o u l d b e d r a w n into the w o r l d economy during t h e E u r o p e a n e x p a n s i o n associated w i t h t h e A t l a n t i c trade as s u p pliers o f slaves. H o w t h e A t l a n t i c trade l e d t o s h a r p l y d i v e r g e n t paths
b e t w e e n W e s t e r n E u r o p e a n d A f r i c a is y e t a n o t h e r e x a m p l e o f institutional divergence resulting f r o m the interaction b e t w e e n critical junctures a n d existing institutional differences. W h i l e i n E n g l a n d t h e
profits o f the slave trade h e l p e d t o enrich those w h o opposed absolutism, i n Africa they helped t o create a n d strengthen absolutism.
Farther a w a y f r o m Europe, the processes o f institutional drift w e r e

D R I F T I N G

APART

179

obviously e v e n freer t o g o their o w n w a y . I n the Americas, for e x a m p l e , w h i c h h a d b e e n c u t o f f f r o m E u r o p e a r o u n d 1 5 , 0 0 0 BC b y t h e

m e l t i n g o f the ice that l i n k e d A l a s k a t o Russia, there w e r e similar i n stitutional i n n o v a t i o n s as those o f t h e N a t u f i a n s , l e a d i n g t o sedentary
life, hierarchy, a n d i n e q u a l i t y i n short, extractive institutions. These
t o o k p l a c e first i n M e x i c o a n d i n A n d e a n P e r u a n d B o l i v i a , a n d l e d t o
the American Neolithic Revolution, w i t h the domestication o f maize.
It w a s i n these places that early f o r m s o f extractive g r o w t h t o o k place,
as w e h a v e s e e n i n t h e M a y a c i t y - s t a t e s . B u t i n t h e s a m e w a y t h a t b i g
breakthroughs t o w a r d inclusive institutions and industrial g r o w t h i n
E u r o p e d i d n o t c o m e i n places w h e r e the R o m a n w o r l d h a d the strongest h o l d , inclusive institutions i n the A m e r i c a s d i d n o t d e v e l o p i n the
l a n d s o f these e a r l y c i v i l i z a t i o n s . I n fact, as w e s a w i n c h a p t e r 1 , these
densely settled civilizations interacted i n a perverse w a y w i t h E u r o p e a n c o l o n i a l i s m t o create a "reversal o f f o r t u n e , " m a k i n g the places
that w e r e previously relatively w e a l t h y i n t h e Americas relatively
p o o r . T o d a y i t is t h e U n i t e d States a n d Canada, w h i c h w e r e t h e n f a r
b e h i n d the c o m p l e x civilizations i n M e x i c o , P e r u , a n d B o l i v i a , that are
m u c h richer t h a n t h e rest o f the A m e r i c a s .
CONSEQUENCES

OF E A R L Y

GROWTH

T h e l o n g p e r i o d b e t w e e n the Neolithic R e v o l u t i o n , w h i c h started i n

9 5 0 0 BC, a n d t h e B r i t i s h I n d u s t r i a l R e v o l u t i o n o f t h e l a t e e i g h t e e n t h
c e n t u r y is littered w i t h spurts o f e c o n o m i c g r o w t h . T h e s e spurts w e r e
triggered b y institutional innovations that ultimately faltered. I n A n cient R o m e t h e institutions o f the Republic, w h i c h created s o m e d e gree o f economic vitality and a l l o w e d for the construction of a massive
e m p i r e , u n r a v e l e d after the c o u p of Julius Caesar a n d the construction
of the e m p i r e u n d e r Augustus. It t o o k centuries for the R o m a n E m p i r e
finally t o v a n i s h , a n d t h e d e c l i n e w a s d r a w n o u t ; b u t o n c e t h e r e l a tively inclusive republican institutions gave w a y t o t h e m o r e extractive institutions o f t h e e m p i r e , e c o n o m i c regress b e c a m e a l l b u t
inevitable.
T h e Venetian dynamics w e r e similar. T h e economic prosperity o f
Venice w a s forged b y institutions that h a d important inclusive

180

W H Y

N A T I O N S

FAIL

elements, b u t these w e r e u n d e r m i n e d w h e n t h e existing elite closed

the system t o n e w entrants a n d even banned t h e economic institutions that h a d created the prosperity o f the republic.
H o w e v e r notable t h e experience o f Rome, it was not Rome's i n heritance that l e d directly t o t h e rise o f inclusive institutions i n E n gland a n d t o the British Industrial R e v o l u t i o n . Historical factors shape
h o w institutions develop, but this is not a simple, predetermined, c u m u l a t i v e process. R o m e a n d Venice illustrate h o w early steps t o w a r d
inclusivity w e r e reversed. T h e economic a n d institutional landscape
that R o m e created t h r o u g h o u t E u r o p e a n d t h e M i d d l e East d i d n o t
i n e x o r a b l y l e a d t o t h e m o r e firmly r o o t e d i n c l u s i v e i n s t i t u t i o n s o f l a t e r
c e n t u r i e s . I n f a c t , t h e s e w o u l d e m e r g e first a n d m o s t s t r o n g l y i n E n gland, w h e r e the R o m a n h o l d was weakest and w h e r e it disappeared
m o s t d e c i s i v e l y , a l m o s t w i t h o u t a t r a c e , d u r i n g t h e fifth c e n t u r y AD.
Instead, as w e discussed i n chapter 4, history plays a major role
t h r o u g h institutional drift that creates institutional differences, albeit
sometimes small, w h i c h t h e n g e t a m p l i f i e d w h e n they interact w i t h
critical junctures. I t is because these differences a r e o f t e n s m a l l that
t h e y c a n b e reversed easily a n d are n o t necessarily the c o n s e q u e n c e
o f a simple cumulative process.
O f course, R o m e h a d long-lasting effects o n E u r o p e . R o m a n l a w
and institutions influenced t h e laws a n d institutions that t h e kingd o m s o f the barbarians set u p after the collapse o f the W e s t e r n R o m a n
E m p i r e . I t w a s also Rome's fall that created t h e decentralized political landscape that d e v e l o p e d i n t o t h e f e u d a l order. T h e disappeara n c e o f s l a v e r y a n d t h e e m e r g e n c e o f i n d e p e n d e n t cities w e r e l o n g ,
d r a w n o u t (and, o f course, historically contingent) by-products o f this
process. These w o u l d b e c o m e particularly consequential w h e n t h e
Black D e a t h s h o o k feudal society deeply. O u t o f t h e ashes o f t h e
B l a c k D e a t h e m e r g e d s t r o n g e r t o w n s a n d cities, a n d a p e a s a n t r y n o
longer tied t o t h e land a n d n e w l y free o f feudal obligations. I t w a s
precisely these critical junctures unleashed b y t h e fall o f the R o m a n
E m p i r e that l e d t o a strong institutional drift affecting a l l o f E u r o p e
in a w a y that h a s n o parallel i n sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, o r t h e
Americas.
B y t h e sixteenth century, E u r o p e w a s institutionally v e r y distinct

D R I F T I N G

APART

181

f r o m sub-Saharan Africa and t h e Americas. T h o u g h not m u c h richer

than the most spectacular Asian civilizations i n India o r China, E u r o p e
differed f r o m these polities i n some k e y ways. F o r example, it h a d
d e v e l o p e d representative institutions o f a sort u n s e e n there. These
w e r e t o play a critical role i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f inclusive institutions. A s w e w i l l see i n the next t w o chapters, small institutional differences w o u l d b e t h e ones that w o u l d really matter w i t h i n Europe;
a n d these f a v o r e d E n g l a n d , b e c a u s e it w a s t h e r e that t h e f e u d a l o r d e r
had made w a y most comprehensively for commercially minded farmers a n d i n d e p e n d e n t u r b a n centers w h e r e m e r c h a n t s a n d i n d u s t r i a l ists c o u l d flourish. T h e s e g r o u p s w e r e a l r e a d y d e m a n d i n g m o r e
secure property rights, different economic institutions, a n d political
voice f r o m their monarchs. This w h o l e process w o u l d come t o a head
in the seventeenth century.