SWOT analysis on how automated vehicles contribute to the goal of reduced

petroleum fuel consumption and local air pollution

The perspective of the Tampa Bay Clean City Coalition
Eckart, Jochen; Vairavamoorthy, Kala
Patel College of Global Sustainability
University of South Florida
4202 E. Fowler Avenue
CGS 101
Tampa, Florida 33620
Abstract:
A SWOT analysis evaluating the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats of
automated vehicles for reducing fuel consumption and promoting alternative fuels technologies
is provided. The SWOT analysis looks at two scales, single automated vehicle as well as the
overall traffic system. Automated vehicles themselves provide a lot of strength in promoting fuel
reduction and providing synergies with alternative fuel vehicles. A reduction of fuel consumption
of 20 to 50 percent seems to be possible. Nevertheless, on the scale of the entire traffic system,
there are both opportunities to improve fuel efficiency and the rebound effects resulting in an
increased number of vehicle miles traveled. Combining the different opportunities and threats the
impacts range from a fuel reduction of 20 percent up to an increase of fuel consumption of 50
percent. In conclusion automated vehicles provide the potential to reduce the fuel consumption,
but it is far from certain that this goal is actually achieved. In order to avoid negative rebound
effects policies are required that avoid automated vehicles lead to longer and more frequent
journeys, increasing highway speed and negative impacts on public transport. In addition
the construction of lighter and less powerful automated vehicles using alternative fuel
technologies should be encouraged. This as the basic premis of the paper seems to be a
negative approach. What about the safety aspect it could add to urban ped and bike users? What
about the potential to further intensify the use of developed urban land without new
infrastructure and the economic growth that would be derived??
1) Introduction:
The transport sector accounts for 70 percent of petroleum consumption in the U.S. and is the
cause of significant greenhouse gas emission and local air pollution. In order to reduce the
consumption of petroleum based fuels and to address air pollution in the Tampa Bay region,
there are currently efforts undertaken by the Tampa Bay Clean City Coalition (TBCCC).
TBCCC embraces the use of non-petroleum based transportation fuels thereby leading to
improved health and welfare for its citizens by maintaining a level of mobility that overall
enhances the quality of life.so what about a safer life that AV/CV and increased mobility that it
could bring? The goal of this paper is to explore if, and how, automated vehicles vehicles
capable of fulfilling human transportation needs by sensing the environment and navigating
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without human input - contribute to the overall goal of the TBCCC. The paper assesses the
contribution of automated vehicles with regard to two TBCCC sub-goals:
- How do automated vehicles contribute to reducing petroleum consumption through fuel
economy improvements, environmentally friendly driving practices, fewer vehicle miles
traveled and other fuel-saving practices?
- How do automated vehicles contribute to the replacement of petroleum by alternative and
renewable fuels? See my additional questions above.
In order to answer these questions a SWOT analysis evaluating the Strengths, Weaknesses,
Opportunities, and Threats of automated vehicles for reducing fuel consumption and promoting
alternative fuels has been performed. The SWOT analysis is supported by an extensive literature
review. The analysis examines the internal and external factors that are favorable and
unfavorable in order to achieve the sub-goals. For this it is essential to define the boundaries of
the system and the analysis:
- The assessment of the strengths and weaknesses focuses on the narrow boundaries of a
single automated vehicle. This should also focus on the potential to grow transit
service/mobility through AV/CV technology.
- The assessment of the opportunities and threats examines the broader system of
automated vehicles considering the impact on the overall system traffic, if there is a broad
adoption of alternative fuel vehicles. I dont see how they relate.
2) Assessing the strength and weaknesses of single automated vehicles
The strengths and weaknesses focusing on the narrow boundaries of single automated vehicles
and the synergies with alternative fuel vehicles are presented. This analysis is supported by initial
reported results from different test vehicles as well as from different model calculations.
The strengths of automated vehicles to reduce fuel consumption are:
- Automated vehicles facilitate fuel efficient driving behavior (foresight driving to
reduce stops at intersections, steadier speeds and less frequent stop and go, driving at
optimal cruising speed for fuel efficiency, minimizing unnecessary acceleration and
braking, etc. (Schneeberger 2013)). Predicted fuel reductions are up to 20 percent
(Wadud et al. 2013) or reduction of 20 to 40 percent (Brown 2013).
- As automated vehicles provide much more safety and significantly reduce the number
of accidents (90 percent of accidents are caused by human error), they provide the
opportunity to reduce passive safety features in the vehicle (such as crush-collapsing
zone) resulting in much lighter and hence more fuel-efficient cars. A potential fuel
reduction of 5 to 25 percent (Wadud et al. 2013) or 45 percent (Brown 2013) is
estimated.
- Automated vehicles with users no longer driving themselves may de-emphasize the
current demand for powerful high performance engines that focus on the human
recreational dimension of driving (Lynch 2013). Reducing the performance of
engines to match the intended cruising speed may reduce fuel consumption by 5 to 25
percent (Wadud et al. 2013).
- The environmental benefits of more efficient driving behavior of automated vehicles
will go beyond the benefits of fuel reduction. A 13 percent reduction of fuel equals to
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significant emission reductions: CO2 12 percent, NOx 37 percent and HC 41 percent

(Boriboonsomsin 2013). In addition, more steady-driving patterns could also result in
a reduction of traffic noise as well as of pollution runoff from streets.
The strengths of automated vehicles to promote alternative fuel technologies are:
- The increased fuel efficiency resulting from more environmentally friendly driving
patterns of automated vehicles is particularly beneficial to alternative fuel vehicles,
such as electric vehicles, which have a shorter driving range per charge than
conventional fuel vehicles. Range anxiety a barrier to the EV market, could be
eased.
- Automated vehicles can help separate the refueling process from the travel (the car
themselves can search for next fuelling station, etc.) hence making alternative fuel
vehicles more convenient to use.
- Automated vehicles are not longer designed from the drivers perspective and hence
may help shift away from traditional cultural expectations of cars (powerful engines
promoting the joy of driving etc.) and help to promote alternative fuels (Lynch 2013).
- Automated vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles complement each other as they are
both well suited for the same type of trips, such as regular commutes in urban
agglomerations (short trips, focus on mobility rather than joy of driving, driven by
economic consumer behavior, etc.).
- Automated vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles attract the same type of consumers early adopters, who are willing to test new technologies and appreciate economic and
environmental benefits.
The potential weakness of automated vehicles with regards to promoting the reduction of fuel
consumption and adoption of alternative fuel technologies:
- There is uncertainty as to the potential and intention of auto manufacturers to build
lighter and less powerful automated cars that use alternative fuel. The current
automated vehicles tested in the field are still conversions of conventional vehicles.
Tying AV/CV technology to the power source of the vehicle is not transparent to
me.
In examining individual automated vehicles, the analysis illustrates that there are overwhelming
strengths and only limited weaknesses for promoting fuel efficiency and alternative fuel vehicles.
Several synergies between automated vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles are already being
explored, such as the Google car building on Toyota Prius (Hybrid) as well as efforts to upgrade
the electric vehicle Nissan Leaf to an automated vehicle (two out of five automated vehicles
currently tested in the field) (Knight 2013; Lynch 2013). Again, the technology and benefiet of
AV/CV are independent of fuel.
3) Assessing the opportunities and threats of automated vehicles on the scale of the
overall traffic systems
The impact of a broad scale adoption of alternative fuel automated vehicles on the overall traffic
system and land-use system is explored. As automated vehicles are still at an early testing stage it
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is by nature difficult to explore these impacts. These impacts can only be explored using possible
future scenarios.
The opportunities of automated vehicles to reduce fuel consumption in the overall traffic system
are:
- Platooning (automated vehicles driving in convoys with reduced minimum distance
between cars) will result in reduced aerodynamic drag and hence reduced fuel
consumption. There is a particularly high potential to reduce the fuel consumption of
truck traffic. The fuel reduction is estimated at 10 to 15 percent (Bullis 2011), 20
percent (Knight 2013), and 5 to 25 percent (Wadud et al. 2013).
- Platooning also increases the capacity of streets, avoids costly investment in roadway
expansion and can contribute to the short-term mitigation of congestions (what do
they mean by short term mitigation?). The fuel savings from reduced traffic
congestion is estimated at up to five percent (Wadud et al. 2013).
- Automated vehicles combined with smart parking systems may reduce parking traffic
as it can directly locate the next parking spot reducing traffic and idling related to
searching for parking spots. A modest reduction of fuel consumption of up to four
percent is estimated (Brown 2013). But this could free-up current parking property
for new use in the urban centers that is more productive.
- Automated vehicles combined with GPS can result in a more effective route selection.
This route guidance provides a fuel reduction potential of up to 20 percent (Brown
2013).
- Automated vehicles create opportunities to provide new forms of public transport and
to increase car occupancy. Innovative forms of public transport in low-density urban
areas, such as automated car-sharing schemes or driverless taxis, could be possible.
The potential for fuel replacement is estimated at 10 to 20 percent (Brown 2012),
(Frazzoli 2013).
- Automated vehicles can be incorporated in schemes for an environmentally driven
operation of the whole traffic system. Possible solutions include smart-signals (cars
and signals coordinate in order to reduce stops at signals), smart-lanes (lanes reserved
for cars driving in efficient platooning pattern), environmentally controlled traffic
information system (steer traffic flows in order to reduce environmental impact),
integrated corridor management (intermodal management of traffic corridors e.g.
smart promoting of switching between cars and public transport) (Schneeberger 2013)
(Knoflacher 2008). Possible fuel reduction savings are in the range of 5 to 10 percent
(Schneeberger 2013).
The threats of automated vehicles to reduce fuel consumption in whole traffic system are:
- Platooning and increased active car safety may result in increasing average highway
speeds. This increased speed can result in increasing fuel consumption of 5 to 40
percent (Wadud et al. 2013) or 30 percent (Brown 2013) (this threat depends on the
fuel type not a threat if electric vehicle).
- Automated vehicles may make access to auto trips possible for groups currently
unable to drive (elderly, children, disabled, etc.) (Elkind 2012). As a backdrop of this
positive increase of individual mobility, there may be an overall increase of miles
traveled, resulting in increasing fuel consumption of up to 40 percent (Brown 2013).
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So the opportunity to provide greater mobility to those who are under-served today is
a threat?
Automated vehicles may, in the short term, activate some latent travel demand as
more efficient cars make driving cheaper. I dont see how the technology will make
driving cheaper especially in the short term. Safer yes, but not cheaper. This
rebound effect of increasing technical efficiency could lead to an increase in miles
traveled, hence offsetting the initial perceived savings (Jevons Paradox). The effect is
assumed to equal the fuel efficiency savings of the individual cars resulting in an
increase of up to 40 percent of fuel consumption (Wadud et al. 2013) this is a very big
assumption.
In the long-term automated vehicles may induce some additional traffic demand I
believe it will induce new trips mostly by those who can not drive today like the
elderly. The reduced travel time due to congestion reduction, as well as the
opportunity to use the in-vehicle travel time for productive purposes, may result in
behavior changes and land-use changes. As a result, drivers may be willing to
commute longer distances resulting in a land-use with longer distances between home
and work. The resulting increase of fuel consumption is estimated of up to 50 percent
(Brown 2013) Another hugh assumption. How is this induced work to home distance
different that that which rail options would create? See note below.
The potential for automated vehicles to use in-vehicle time more productively may
result in changes of mode selection. As automated vehicles provide similar benefits to
public transport (working or relaxing during commute) this may reduce the attraction
of public transport (Elkind 2012). If transit were to aggressively put this technology
in buses and a new type of para-transit application they could capture the market and
increase public transit use.

4) Conclusions
When focusing on the individual automated vehicle, we project a number of strengths in
promoting fuel reduction and providing synergies with alternative fuel vehicles. A reduction of
fuel consumption of 20 to 50 percent is estimated (Frazzoli 2013). However, when examining
automated vehicles as part of the entire traffic system, we see both opportunities to improve fuel
efficiency and threats by the rebound effects on system level resulting in an increased number
of vehicle miles traveled. Combining the different opportunities and threats of automated
vehicles in different possible future scenarios gives a range of fuel reduction from 20 percent
up to an increase of fuel consumption of 50 percent (they use the lower end of reduction and
the higher end of consumption induced. Again with no mention of the type of fuel being
consumed when technology is in place) (Wadud et al. 2013) and seems to be plausible really?.
At this early stage it is difficult to accurately predict the consequences of automated vehicles on
the traffic system. In order to avoid the negative rebound effects it is key to have policies in
place that discourage longer and more frequent journeys, low highway speeds, higher traffic
volume (the whole point of AV/CV in this case to enable higher speeds and volumes on the
existing infrastructure!) and (not to - hence create congestion, and reduced use of public
transport. The key benefits of automated vehicles can only be realized if (what about the safety

benefits that have NO relationship to - emphasis is placed on lighter, less powerful, and fuelflexible vehicles.
The combination of opportunities and threats at the system level remains highly uncertain and
requires detailed research. Automated vehicles provide the potential to contribute to the goal of
the TBCCC to reduce fuel consumption, but it is far from certain that this goal will be actually
achieved. In addition, the identification of appropriate accompanying policies is not well
explored at the moment. There is a need to develop policies ensuring that automated vehicles not
only benefit the individual drivers, but also exploit the opportunities for system optimization
(efficient and integrated corridor management, and environmental-travel information etc.
(Knoflacher 2008)) to achieve an overall reduction of fuel consumption and related air
pollutants. This SWOT analysis is just a first step to assessing the environmental impacts of
automated vehicles and is intended to serve as a prelude to future detailed studies.
This SWOT analysis ignores safety for vehicles, pedestrians, and bikes. It ignores opportunity to
create even more intense use of existing urbanized property and infrastructure. If the fleet were
all electric then what would their argument be?

Sources:
- Boriboonsomsin, Kanok (2013) Role of vehicle automation in reducing traffic-related
energy emissions of light-duty vehicles, at TRBs 2nd Annual Workshop on Road
Vehicle Automation, July 16, 2013
- Brown, Austin (2013) Automated vehicles have a wide range of possible energy
impacts, at TRBs 2nd Annual Workshop on Road Vehicle Automation, July 16, 2013
- Bullis, Kevin (2011) How vehicle automation will cut fuel consumption, in
MIT_Technology_Review.com 10/24/2011
- Elind, Ethan (2012) Could self-driving cars help the environment? In
blogs.berkeley.edu 4/11/2012
- Frazzoli, Emilio (2013) Autonome Fahrzeuge knnen vllig anders fahren, in
http://technicity.daimler.com/frazzoli/ 08/22/2013
- Knight, Will (2013) Driverless cars are further away than you think, in
MIT_Technology_Review.com 10/22/2013
- Knoflacher Herman (2008) Jedes Ding hat zwei Seiten auch die Telematik, in:
Elektrotechnik & Informationstechnik (2008) 125/6 pp. 222225
- Lynch, Tyler Wells, (2013) You car maybe automated before its electric, and its a
good thing, in cars.reviewed.com 10/9/2013
- Schneeberger J. D. (2013) Applications for the environment: real-time information
synthesis (AERIS) and vehicle automation, at TRBs 2nd Annual Workshop on Road
Vehicle Automation, July 16, 2013
- Wadud, Zia; MacKenzie, Don; Leiby, Paul (2013) Energy savings and rebound effects
of highly automated vehicles, at TRBs 2nd Annual Workshop on Road Vehicle
Automation, July 16, 2013