Integrated Water Resource MNGT

Analytical framework for the planning of
Integrated Water Resources Management
December 2003
Version 2.0
Dhaka
Preface
This project consists of different subsequent phases: inception, design, development and application.
In inception phase the conceptualization of the framework was developed based on Blue Accounting
concepts (CEGIS Technical note no. 18) and two IWRM courses. The concept was widely discussed
among the different local and international experts (Working Paper, version 01/12/15). The working
document Analytical Framework for the Planning of Integrated Water Resources Management
produced by the workgroup of WARPO, CEGIS and IWM, which was active in the second half of
2001.
The design phase stared on January 2003 which includes the review of the computational framework,
identification of models and tools, assessment of available existing macro level planning tools and
development of design and specification. IWFM team led by Prof. Jahir Uddin Chowdhury evaluated
the dNWMP programs and accordingly identified models to assess the impact of the dNWMP
(Technical Report 1, BUET, Oct 2003). The review of the analytical framework design and
implementation plan was done by Dr. Adri Verwey and the review for IWRM planning was done by
Prof. Eelco Van Beek of Delft Hydraulics (Mission Reports, June 2003). CEGIS, together with IWM,
described the specifications of water resources state indicators.
Prof. Jahir Uddin Chowdhury and his team prepared the design specification of the computational
framework (Technical Report 2, BUET, Oct 2003) and Dr. Peter Gijsbers from Delft Hydraulics
with assistance from CEGIS made the architectural design of the computational framework
(Architecture design of Computational Framework, Oct 2003).
This working document as outcome from design phase Analytical Framework for the Planning of
Integrated Water Resources Management, December 2003, Version 2.0 includes the identified
models, tools and their specifications, and overall architecture as well as gives direction on how tools
can be developed. The report also identifies the development partners and their role in development
and application phases.
In forthcoming development phase, the development and testing of computational engines and
modules will be carried out by the development partners as proposed in this report. In application
phase the developed engines and modules will be implemented by WARPO with technical support
from CEGIS. CEGIS will take advice and help from the relevant international and local partners such
as Delft, IWM, IWFM, BIDS etc.
iii
Table of contents
Preface.........................................................................................................................................................iii
Table of contents ......................................................................................................................................... v
List of figures............................................................................................................................................. vii
List of tables..............................................................................................................................................viii
Abbreviations and Acronyms ................................................................................................................... ix
Chapter 1 Introduction............................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background and rationale.............................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Scope and contents of the report.................................................................................................... 2
Chapter 2 The Approach............................................................................................................................ 3
2.1 Objective and scope of the analytical framework.......................................................................... 3
2.2 Steps of analysis ............................................................................................................................ 3
2.3 The Blue Accounting conceptual framework ................................................................................ 4
2.4 Stages of framework development ................................................................................................ 6
Chapter 3 The conceptual framework ...................................................................................................... 9
3.1 Water resources system ................................................................................................................. 9
3.2 WRS related issues in Bangladesh .............................................................................................. 10
3.2.1 Flood and drainage congestion....................................................................................... 10
3.2.2 Drought and Low River flow........................................................................................... 11
3.2.3 Ground water availability and quality ............................................................................ 13
3.2.4 Erosion and accretion ..................................................................................................... 14
3.2.5 Fertilization of floodplain ............................................................................................... 15
3.2.6 Salinization...................................................................................................................... 15
3.2.7 Surface water quality ...................................................................................................... 15
3.2.8 Ecosystem maintenance/ protection ................................................................................ 16
3.2.9 Waterborne diseases ....................................................................................................... 17
3.2.10 Fish habitat and bio-diversity ......................................................................................... 17
3.3 Objectives and Decision Support Indicators................................................................................ 17
3.3.1 National development goals ............................................................................................ 18
3.3.2 Selection of national water management objectives ....................................................... 19
3.3.3 Criteria for the selection of DSIs .................................................................................... 20
3.3.4 DSIs for economic development...................................................................................... 20
3.3.5 DSIs for food security...................................................................................................... 22
3.3.6 DSIs for quality of life ..................................................................................................... 25
3.3.7 DSIs for ecosystem sustainability.................................................................................... 26
3.4 Functions and State Indicators..................................................................................................... 26
3.4.1 The selection of functions................................................................................................ 26
3.4.2 Criteria for the selection of SIs ....................................................................................... 28
3.4.3 SIs for flood attenuation and drainage ........................................................................... 29
3.5 The SI-DSI relational matrix ....................................................................................................... 35
3.6 Priorities determining the most important SIs and DSIs .......................................................... 43
Chapter 4 The computational framework .............................................................................................. 45
4.1 Overall structure of the computational framework...................................................................... 45
4.2 Design consideration ................................................................................................................... 48
Chapter 5 Design Specification of the Computational Framework ..................................................... 51
5.1 National Water Resource System model (NWRS) ...................................................................... 51
5.1.1 Conceptual Formulation ................................................................................................. 51
5.1.2 Discretization .................................................................................................................. 52
5.1.3 Water Balance Computation ........................................................................................... 54
5.1.4 Main River Routing ......................................................................................................... 55
5.1.5 Salinity Intrusion Module................................................................................................ 56
5.1.6 Urban Rainfall-runoff and Water Quality Module.......................................................... 57

5.1.7 Rural Waste Assimilation Module................................................................................... 57
5.1.8 Ground water Quality Module ........................................................................................ 58
5.2 Specific Process Modules............................................................................................................ 58
5.2.1 Morphological Module.................................................................................................... 58
5.2.2 Tidal Propagation Module .............................................................................................. 59
5.2.3 Sediment Transport Module ............................................................................................ 59
5.2.4 Reservoir Sedimentation Module .................................................................................... 59
5.3 Global Boundary Condition Model ............................................................................................. 59
5.3.1 Rainfall-runoff Model for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basins ............................ 60
5.3.2 Sea Level Model for the Bay of Bengal ........................................................................... 60
5.4 Analysis Tools ............................................................................................................................. 61
5.4.1 Flood Flow and Low Flow .............................................................................................. 61
5.4.2 Inundation ....................................................................................................................... 61
5.4.3 Rating Curve ................................................................................................................... 61
5.4.4 Area Elevation Curve ...................................................................................................... 61
5.4.5 Volume Elevation Curve.................................................................................................. 61
5.4.6 Seasonal Flow Volume .................................................................................................... 61
5.4.7 Backwater........................................................................................................................ 61
Chapter 6 The Architectural Design of the Computational Framework............................................. 63
6.1 The Conceptual Model ................................................................................................................ 63
6.2 The architecture ........................................................................................................................... 64
6.3 Data flow ..................................................................................................................................... 66
6.3.1 Global Conditions ........................................................................................................... 66
6.3.2 Land use, economic and demographic development....................................................... 66
6.3.3 National Water Resources System (NWRS)................................................................................. 68
6.3.4 Specific processing.......................................................................................................... 72
6.3.5 Activities.......................................................................................................................... 73
6.3.6 Impacts ............................................................................................................................ 76
6.3.7 Evaluation ....................................................................................................................... 76
6.4 Engines ........................................................................................................................................ 77
6.5 DSS environment......................................................................................................................... 77
6.5.1 DSS and CF responsibilities ........................................................................................... 77
6.5.2 Overview of DSS-layering............................................................................................... 78
Chapter 7 Role of Implementation partners .......................................................................................... 81
7.1 Overall planning .......................................................................................................................... 81
7.1.1 Task inventory ............................................................................................................................. 81
7.1.2 Global overviews ......................................................................................................................... 81
7.2 Essential and critical tasks........................................................................................................... 83
7.3 Inputs from WARPO ................................................................................................................... 84
7.4 Inputs from IWM......................................................................................................................... 84
7.4.1 Proposed IWM project team........................................................................................................ 85
7.5 Inputs from IWFM ...................................................................................................................... 85
7.5.1 Inputs from IWFM........................................................................................................... 85
7.6 Dutch input .................................................................................................................................. 86
7.6.1 Co-operation ................................................................................................................... 86
7.6.2 The role and tasks of WL delft hydraulics....................................................................... 86
7.6.3 The role and tasks of PcRaster Software BV.................................................................. 87
7.6.4 Proposed Dutch project team.......................................................................................... 87
7.7 Input from CEGIS ....................................................................................................................... 88
References.................................................................................................................................................. 89
Appendix A: Detailed description of SI .................................................................................................. 91
Appendix B: Detailed Task list
Appendix C: Task Schedule
vi
List of figures
Figure 2.1: Relation between interventions, SIs and DSIs for Evaluation and Decision making...........6
Figure 3.2: Percentage of yield loss against stress days........................................................................12
Figure 3.3: Classification of Kharif (T. Aman) in drought prone areas................................................12
Figure 3.5: Relation between low flow and salinity .............................................................................15
Figure 3.6: Cereal production Bangladesh 89-90 to 98-99 (BBS, 2000)..............................................23
Figure 3.7: Fish production of Bangladesh 1986-89 to 2000-01
(Sources: Fishery statistical yearbook of Bangladesh, 2000-2001) ....................................24
Figure 3.8: Shifting of peak flow in Jamuna ........................................................................................29
Figure 3.9: Flood duration above danger level, Ganges .......................................................................30
Figure 3.12: SI-DSI relations ................................................................................................................38
Figure 3.14: Comparison of flooded area and combined peak discharges of the three major rivers ....39
Figure 3.15: Frequency of occurrence of inundation for the whole country.........................................39
Figure 3.16: Aman and Boro production loss in the Meghna basin......................................................40
Figure 3.17: Relationship with usable recharge with the Flood Drainage Index..................................41
Figure 4.1: Overall structure of the computational framework.............................................................47
Figure 5.1: Main rivers, regional rivers and hydrological regions of Bangladesh................................52
Figure 5.2: NWRS model schematization by grid-based approach (10 km grid) .................................53
Figure 5.3: Schematic cross-section of the regional river.....................................................................56
Figure 6.1 Spatial representation of the water resources system ..........................................................63
Figure 6.2: Illustration of relevant flows in the system ........................................................................64
Figure 6.3 Overall architecture of computational framework...............................................................65
Figure 6.4 Global Conditions - data flow .............................................................................................66
Figure 6.5: Land Use, Demographic and Economic Development - data flow ....................................67
Figure 6.6: National Water Resources System data flow overview...................................................68
Figure 6.7: Main River Model - data flow details.................................................................................69
Figure 6.8: Water Balance Model - data flow details ...........................................................................70
Figure 6.9: Salinity intrusion - data flow details...................................................................................71
Figure 6.10: Water quality and waste assimilation - data flow details .................................................71
Figure 6.11: Specific tools for aggregating salinity and water quality/waste assimilation results .......72
Figure 6.12: Specific tools for aggregating water resources, flood and drainage features and
assessment of sediment transport and morphological behaviour ........................................72
Figure 6.14: Water allocation to various activities - data flow .............................................................74
Figure 6.17: Impact assessment - associated data flow.........................................................................76
Figure 6.19: Overview of data sets to be made accessible in the DSS .................................................77
Figure 6.20: Overview of DSS - structure ............................................................................................78
vii
List of tables
Appendix C: Task Schedule...................................................................................................................vi
Table 3.1: Severe floods during the last half-century ..........................................................................10
Table 3.2: Flooded areas in Bangladesh for different return periods....................................................11
Table 3.3: Types and causes of flooding...............................................................................................11
Table 3.4: Four different aquifers .........................................................................................................14
Table 3.5: Arsenic contamination in the country ..................................................................................14
Table 3.6: Summary of DSIs ................................................................................................................18
Table 3.7: GDP and per capita income of Bangladesh (at current market prices)................................21
Table 3.8: Sectoral production values (national total; at current market prices in million Taka).........21
Table 3.9: Projected Per Capita Daily Consumption Pattern of Various Food Items
up to 2020 Based on the GDP Growth Rate of 7% per Annum (gram) ..............................23
Table 3.10: Annual Fish Yields (Kg/ha/ year) of the F3 land type.......................................................24
Table 3.11: Gini-coefficient for Bangladesh, 1995-96 .........................................................................25
Table 3.12: Summary of SIs .................................................................................................................27
Table 3.13: Habitat wise Historical Fish Catch (MT) in Bangladesh ...................................................42
Table 6.1: Responsibilities between DSS-environment and the computational framework.................78
Table 7.1: Global overview organized by software module .................................................................81
Table 7.2: Global overview organized by task type (medium-level grouping) ....................................82
viii
Abbreviations and Acronyms

BBS
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
BCAS Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies

BGS
British Geological Survey
BOD
Biological Oxygen Demand
BWP
Bangladesh Water Partnership
CC
Climate Change
COD
Chemical Oxygen Demand
DO
Dissolved Oxygen
DOE
Department of Environment
DPHE Department of Public Health and Engineering

DSI
Decision Support Indicator
FAO
Food and Agriculture Organization
FAP
Flood Action Plan
FCD/I Flood Control and Drainage/Irrigation

FDI
Flood Drainage Index
FFYP Fifth Five Year Plan

GBM Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna
GBMM Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Model
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GIS
Geographic Information System
GOB
Government of Bangladesh
GW
Ground water
HB
Hardinge Bridge
BB
Bhairab Bazar
IUCN The World Conservation Union

IWFM Institute of Water and Flood Management
IWM
Institute of Water Modelling
LGED Local Government and Engineering Department

MCA Multi Criteria Analysis
MoWR Ministry of Water Resources
MPO
Master Plan Organization
NEMAP National Environment Management Action Plan
ix
NWMP National Water Management Plan

NWPo National Water Policy
NWRD National Water Resources Database
NWRM National Water Resource Management
NWRS National Water Resource System
SI
State Indicator
SLR
Sea Level Rise
TSS
Total Suspended Solid
WARPO Water Resources Planning Organization

WHO World Health Organization
WRS
Water Resource System
Chapter 1
Introduction
1.1
Background and rationale
As per the National Water Policy (NWPo), one of WARPOs main tasks is to prepare periodic
updates of the National Water Management Plan (NWMP). Five-year planning rounds are envisaged,
which is a widely accepted interval for national and sectoral plans having the main function to set
general objectives and targets and thus to create guidelines for more detailed planning. A five-year
cycle would also bring the NWMP in pace with the countrys five-year planning (next version: sixth
five year plan 2002-2007). The 5-year cycle for the NWMP would allow adequate adaptation of water
management strategies to such new issues as drought, water quality, arsenic and cost recovery and
to reflect them in the national 5-year planning. This all implies that the target date for the next version
of the NWMP should be 2006.
Updating of a NWMP with the intention to review and adapt national water management strategies is
a major task, which would cover a period of at least 2 years (probably 3 years) of intensive studies in
coordination with national and international experts and institutes. Through the preparation of the
actual NWMP, information on the countrys water resources system (WRS) and its utilization has
been updated, a National Water Resources Database (NWRD) has been established and participatory
approaches have been implemented. What is still lacking, however, are structured planning
procedures to develop and analyze alternative national water management strategies. For better
understanding of the tasks involved, it is worth highlighting the important steps to be taken in this
periodic updating:
Assessment of problems based on: (i) demand projections and the estimates of the available
resources (made by the monitoring group); and (ii) the state of the water resources system, in
particular with regard to its developments.
The identification of the policy objectives for water management (national water policy; 5year plans; sectoral plans) and their translation into planning objectives and corresponding
Decision Support Criteria. This will establish the overall assessment framework.
The identification and feasibility assessment of structural and non-structural measures. This
includes different kinds of physical structures, but also such measures as pricing, extraction
quota, and zoning.
The formulation and impact analysis of alternative strategies. Strategies are combinations of
identified measures, which are analyzed under different scenarios for, e.g., water availability
from upstream countries and demographic and economic developments.
Public consultations to discuss problems, objectives and possible measures or strategies.
The development of the required database and construction of models. This is driven by the
policy priorities, problems and identified measures.
The evaluation of alternative strategies. This involves application of the assessment

framework defined in the beginning of the study and can be supported by a multi-criteria
analysis (MCA). This would include an institutional analysis on aspects of implementation.
Obviously, this goes beyond the updating of a mere portfolio of programmes. However,
implementation of what has been referred to above: structured planning procedures, requires a
structured preparation. This would imply three major activities:
1
Introduction
The establishment of an operational network of government agencies, which will be involved

in the planning process.
The further development of participatory approaches, based on the experiences during the
present NWMP.
The development of a framework of analysis (in close coordination with CEGIS and IWM)
for the formulation, analysis and evaluation of alternative management strategies.
1.2
Scope and contents of the report
As mentioned in the preface, this report is a working document which aims to initiate a discussion on
the analytical framework to be developed and used by WARPO in the formulation of the next
NWMP.
The development of the framework follows the Blue Accounting approach, which is described in
Chapter 2. This approach and thus this framework aims to account both for the direct and shortterm as well as for the cumulative and long-term impacts on the performance of the WRS in terms of
its contribution to the national development objectives such as food security and poverty alleviation.
The conceptual part of the framework (Chapter 3) specifies the relevant indicators which: (i)
characterize the state of the WRS and (ii) represent the value of changes in the state of the WRS in
terms of national objectives. The conceptual part also identifies the relation between these indicators,
leading to the key table of Figure 3.3.
The computational part of the framework (Chapter 4) is based on the conceptual framework. It
designs the main structure of models and databases, establishing the requirements and boundary
conditions for further detailed developments of identified models and modules. Both frameworks in
fact together provide a common approach and language, and serves as a platform for discussion and
interaction between decision makers, planners and analysts.
In Chapter 5 the institutional setting is described in which the analytical framework will have to
function. WARPO will be the leading agency in this, being the exclusive government institution for
macro-level water resources planning. In their planning activities, WARPO can be supported by
specialized institutes such as CEGIS and IWM, in particular with respect to the more technical aspects
involved. The chapter describes the division of roles between WARPO, CEGIS, IWM and other
supporting organizations, both in the further development of the analytical framework as well in the
application of this framework for the updating of the NWMP.
Finally in Chapter 6, an outline of a work plan is presented for a project to further develop the
analytical framework and apply it for the updating of the NWMP. It is suggested in the work plan to
apply the framework also for a pilot area at sub-regional level. In this way the applicability of the
framework for planning at such sub-regional level can be tested, possibly leading to some adjustments
of the framework. In carrying out the two planning studies simultaneously, the relation between
planning on national/regional level (NWMP) and sub-regional level can be investigated. This will
support WARPOs task to take care of the consistency in planning carried out at various levels of the
government.
As mentioned, the framework has to be shared with other agencies involved in water management and
would thus highly contribute to an effective and efficient WARPO. It might be considered that this
activity ultimately may result in Bangladesh guidelines for WRS planning, which describe, e.g., how
cost estimates are made; which discount rates to use; and how to value water and water using
activities. Such guidelines would also specify the criteria used for planning decisions and would
identify the possible use of MCA techniques to compare alternative options or strategies.
Chapter 2
The Approach
2.1
Objective and scope of the analytical framework
In general terms, the objective of the analytical framework is: to support the formulation, analysis and
evaluation of alternative water management strategies. Operated by analysts, the analytical
framework should provide relevant information to planning agencies enabling them to assess and
compare alternative courses of action in preparation of final decision making. The framework thus
connects three important parties or stakeholders in the planning process: analysts (e.g., CEGIS),
planners (e.g., WARPO, LGED) and decision makers (i.e., MoWR). An important aim of the
analytical framework is to provide a structured approach based on consensus on the required
information.
Obviously, such a framework should reflect the changes in the utilization and availability of the water
resources and in the water resources system itself. It should also be able to predict the relevant
impacts on ecosystems and on the social and economic conditions of the different users of the
resources and the society as a whole. Changes can be a result of exogenous developments such as
changes in the upper water shed or in the climate or in the water levels in the Bay of Bengal. Such
changes are beyond the control of the decision makers, but changes can also be brought about through
structural or non-structural management interventions. The analytical framework should be able to
account for all such changes.
It is important to realize that the framework is not only a structured set of components and their
interrelations but when visualized through a systems diagram, it also creates a structured process for
its development and implementation. Analytical frameworks are situations and are problem specific
and thus have to be developed to meet the requirements of specific decision making contexts.
Through a generic approach, called the steps of analysis, these specific frameworks can be
developed. These steps are further described in Section 2.2.
As mentioned in the introduction, the framework distinguishes between a conceptual and a
computational part. The development of the conceptual framework bears heavily on the concept of
Blue Accounting (Chapter 3). The first step in customizing this approach to the Bangladesh conditions
was taken during the EGIS/WARPO course organized in March/April 2001. Further development is
organized through a series of work sessions at WARPO. As mentioned, the expected output is an
operational framework of indicators, which will allow an assessment of the state and changes of the
WRS. The identification of indicators under the above conceptual framework drives the development
of the computational framework of models and databases. Existing models and experiences are fully
accounted for.
2.2
Steps of analysis
This section briefly introduces the different steps, which can be taken in the process of formulating,
analyzing and evaluating alternative strategies for IWRM. They form the context of the development of
the analytical framework, the subject of this document.
Steps in the framework can be taken on different levels of detail, for example ranging from a rough
assessment of problems and identification of possible solutions to a detailed analysis of a few
identified strategies. Approaches on different levels of detail can be arranged in a logical order of
consecutive rounds of analysis, often including a go-no-go decision after each round.
The approach
STEP 1: Analysis of problems and identification of possible measures. A problem analysis

should cover all possible past, present and future problems. As poor governance is considered
to be an important reason for the rapid deterioration of the WRSs all over the world, an
institutional analysis should be incorporated. Important in this phase is also to specify the
boundaries of the management area and to delineate the system to be studied.
STEP 2: Specification of objectives and criteria. The overall objective generally is formulated
as to optimize the benefits of natural resources utilization for the society as a whole. More
specific objectives might relate to special user or interest groups, e.g., protect and preserve the
ecosystem of wetlands or improve social and economic conditions of subsistence farmers. For
the purpose of the analysis, these objectives must be translated in even more specific analysis
objectives, leading to the formulation of specific criteria and indicators.
STEP 3: Delineation of analysis conditions. Analysis conditions refer to the complete set of
conditions and assumptions under which an analysis are undertaken. They include, among
other things: time horizons; spatial boundaries; discount rate and base year. Special
assumptions are made with respect to exogenous developments (scenarios), for example, on
hydrologic and meteorological conditions and demographic, economic and demand
projections.
STEP 4: Formulation and analysis of possible measures and promising strategies. This phase
of the analysis incorporates the following essential components: (i) analyzing human and
economic activities (activity analysis); (ii) analyzing natural systems; (iii) formulating
strategies; and (iv) specifying cases for analysis (combination of strategies and scenarios).
STEP 5: Implementation assessment for selected strategies. This step is essential for a final
evaluation of promising strategies (next step). Four components are relevant in analyzing the
implementation of proposed or selected strategies: (i) management tasks; (ii) responsible
agencies and corresponding institutional linkages; (iii) existing policy intentions; and (iv)
financing and staffing.
STEP 6: Evaluation of strategies. An evaluation of strategies may consist of two parts. The
first compares all impacts and effects in terms of the criteria formulated. The second part may
include some procedure to arrive at a ranking of the proposed strategies, applying weights to
the different criteria.
STEP 7: Presentation of results. Explicit consideration should be given to the kind of

participants that are involved in the decision process and the type and forms of information
needed or desired by those participants. Not only are the results of the analysis presented but
also information on the selection and definition of the characteristics of the system
considered, the setting of objectives and criteria and an explanation of analytical approaches.
2.3
The Blue Accounting conceptual framework1
The Blue Accounting conceptual framework is based on the understanding that one needs to look at
the multiple functions of the WRS of a country and their long-term performance in order to assess
how the WRS contributes to actual national development goals and ultimately to the objective of
sustainable development. The WRS in this approach is viewed as a productive system, which
performs certain functions in the production of goods and services for satisfying human needs. For
example, the flood regulation function, allowing floods to enter unprotected floodplains, would serve
Copied from the report: Guidebook for Integrated Water Resources Management, Concepts and Tools; draft version
August 2001 (in support of WARPOs IWRM course, organized by EGIS between August 26 and September 6, 2001)
The approach
several purposes: alleviate flood peaks and protect economic interests elsewhere; facilitate fish
production; and recharge ground water aquifers to support water supply in the dry period. The value
or importance of these functions is measured in terms of the contribution of these goods and services
to the national policy objectives. For example, the functions of the WRS to retain and supply water
during the dry season and to reduce salt water intrusion in the same season would make water
available for irrigation and thus contribute to the national objective of food security. Values are often
expressed in terms of changes, for example, changes in food production as a function of changes in
water availability for irrigation.
The Blue Accounting approach thus provides a framework to assess changes of proposed
interventions in terms of national policy objectives. Such interventions can be structural, and in most
cases directly affecting the conditions of the WRS, or it can be non-structural, focusing on the use of
the WRS.
Indicators characterize functions and values.
State indicators (SI) represent the performance of the functions. For example, the flood
regulation function can be characterized by such indicators as: peak water levels, duration of
floods and water levels during the onset and recession of the floods. Due to human
interventions, flood peak and flood recession levels may increase, which is then considered
representative for a deterioration of the flood regulation function of the WRS.
Decision support indicators (DSI) reflect policy and decision making objectives. A national
food security objective, for example, can be expressed in terms of total food grain and fish
production. A production increase because of changes in the WRS would then be a yardstick
to value the benefits of such WRS changes.
The causal relationships linking the SIs to the DSIs are specified as a set of mathematical equations
involving Intermediate Variables. The computational framework in fact consists of a set of SIs,
DSIs, Intermediate Variables and mathematical equations representing all inter-connections in the
system. The Blue Accounting system is thus simply a special example of a conceptual model
representing the WRS in a management context. The relationship between interventions, SIs and DSIs
is shown in Figure 2.1.
The development of a specific conceptual framework would start with the identification of: (i) the
objectives, which reflects the problem and decision making context; and (ii) the functions which
represent the WRS characteristics. It is stressed that the framework should be driven by the concerns
and the decision problem at hand and the corresponding objectives for decision making. This context
defines both the decision-making criteria and the kind of interventions considered. The criteria and
expected interventions, in turn, define the functions and corresponding SIs, which are relevant for
generating the required information. For example, the SI-DSI structure, which is needed in support of
decisions (to be made on a national water management strategy) with the objectives to support
poverty alleviation and food security from a national perspective, will be different from the SI-DSI
structure needed to facilitate decisions on a major irrigation schema, focusing on agricultural
production and regional benefits to farmers.
The approach
Evaluation
& Decision
making
Change in DSIs
Ecosystem
sustainability
(SIs)
Quality of life
State Indicators
Food security
in
Economic
development
Institutional
arrangement
Change
Demand
management
Regulatory rules
& regulations
Non-structural
investment
Infrastructure
investment
INPUTS: Strategies & Scenarios
Flood attenuation
and drainage
Water retention and
production
Salinity control
Tide and storm surge
regulation
Sediment
transport/
Figure 2.1: Relation between interventions,
SIs and
DSIs.
retention
Waste assimilation
Figure 2.1: Relation between interventions, SIs and DSIs for Evaluation and Decision making
2.4
Stages of framework development
The framework is developed through the STEPS 1 to 3 and applied in STEPS 4 to 5. Three different,
subsequent, stages are distinguished.
i.
Specification of the conceptual framework, which consists of a system of indicators and their
interrelations, which characterizes the multiple functions (SIs) of the WRS and reflects the
national development objectives (DSIs). The first version has been concluded in the year
2001, but will be subject to continuous adaptation depending on the findings with the next
steps.
ii.
Design of a computational framework based on the conceptual framework and on an inventory

of existing models and experiences. This stage has been concluded in the second version (this
document) in 2003, subject to adaptation based on the experiences in stage III.
iii.
Construction of the computational framework (2004 2005). The existing models form a set
of individually operated models and databases, which focus on the simulation of the natural
system. A framework for planning, however would encompass a more comprehensive set,
including for example: year round overall water balance models (e.g., STREAM); main river
6
The approach
models (Mike11/Sobek); water quality models; ground water models; agricultural demand and
impact models; fisheries in-stream demand models; flood and drought damage assessment
models; land use suitability models; economic models and formal MCA techniques.
The computational framework would also include the operational linkages between several of
these models and between these models and the NWRD.
It is intended to document the framework development through a series of publications on both the
overall structure and its components. This first publication, in which the conceptual and
computational frameworks are designed, is meant to be a discussion paper, which aims to disseminate
in a concrete way WARPOs approach to structure and coordinate planning activities for the water
resources sector. It can be used in follow up courses and in discussions with other agencies.
The expected output after two years (middle of 2005) is a comprehensive and transparent analytical
framework ready for implementation in the next round of the NWMP. The planning approach could
be reflected in a guideline for the planning and analysis of the water sector in Bangladesh.
Chapter 3
The conceptual framework
This chapter initially introduces a specification of the water resources system (WRS; Section 3.1) and
then briefly describes the long-term concerns of the WRS related issues, which have triggered the
Blue Accounting approach (Section 3.2)2. Elaboration of the conceptual framework is done in sections
3.3 to 3.5, specifying the DSIs, SIs and their relations.
3.1
Water resources system
The WRS comprises water with its dissolved and non-dissolved substances and bio-organic
components, and consists of different sub-systems of natural landforms and man-made infrastructures.
The following specific sub-systems were differentiated:
Inter-linked system of rivers, estuaries, canals, khals, etc.;
Active floodplains, including beels and haors;
Lakes and man-made ponds;
Ground water aquifers; and
Inter-tidal lands.
The above sub-systems have different functions and are of varied importance in different parts of the
country. The framework will account for geographic differences through considering the eight
hydrological regions defined in the NWMP (Figure 3.1).
NE
NW
NC
SW
SE
EH
SC
RE
River and
Estuaries
Figure 3.1: Hydrological regions of Bangladesh.
2
Copied from EGIS Technical Note 15: Blue Accounting, Introduction to a methodology for monitoring and assessing
the functionality of Water Resources System. Dhake, February 2000.
3.2
WRS related issues in Bangladesh
In the past, the water resources sector has been viewed mainly in the context of controlling floods,
improving drainage and providing water for irrigation. The need for a more holistic, long-term and
system-wide approach encompassing the multiplicity of functions performed by water has been
recognized of late. The following long-term major issues have been identified which support and
illustrate this need for a more holistic approach (given the hydrological diversity among different
regions of the country, these issues would assume varied importance and dimensions across the
regions).
3.2.1
Flood and drainage congestion
Upper riparian water flow and internal rainfall often create flooding conditions in the country, causing
damages to standing crops, livestock and dwelling units. Once in every ten years, roughly one third of
the country gets severely affected by floods, while in catastrophic years such as 1988 and 1998,
around 60% of the land area in Bangladesh was inundated. The extent of the 1998 flood was the
highest in recorded history, inundating about 68% of the total landmass of Bangladesh. Severe floods
that have occurred over the last half-century are shown below in Table 3.1.
Table 3.1: Severe floods during the last half-century
Year
Flood extent area

Sq-km
1954
36,800
25
1955
50,500
34
1963
43,100
29
1969
41,400
28
1970
42,400
29
1974
52,600
36
1987
57,300
39
1988
89,970
61
1998
1,00,250
68
1999
32850
22
2000
35700
24
Note: Area of Bangladesh = 147,570 sq-km

Sources: BWDB, Flood and Erosion monitoring
The construction of flood protection measures, such as embankments, roads and other public
infrastructure and the continuous encroachment onto the floodplains for settlements due to the
demographic pressure has reduced the storage and drainage capacity of the floodplains and has caused
siltation of rivers and canals. These developments have seriously contributed to the increasing waterlogging problems as well as to accentuating flooding conditions. The drainage congestion in the
southeast region (especially in the Noakhali area) where salinity also plays an important role is related
to the delta development process and human interventions. Table 3.2 shows the flooded areas in
Bangladesh for different return periods:
10
Table 3.2: Flooded areas in Bangladesh for different return periods

Return Period (years)
10
20
50
100
500
Mean
Flooded areas (%)
20
30
37
43
52
60
70
22
Source: Shahjahan, 1993.
The floods in Bangladesh are categorized into four types. The types, sources of flood-water, main
contributing causes and regions affected are presented in Table 3.3 below.
Table 3.3: Types and causes of flooding
Flood Type
Monsoon
flood
Sources
Overbank flow
Local rainfall
Flash flood
Overbank flow
Local rainfall
Cyclonic
rainfall
Overbank flow
Tidal flood
Cyclonic flood
Cyclonic storm
surge
Causes
Drainage congestion:
1. Flat land slope
2. Flat river slope
3. High water level
(river & sea)
4. Synchronization
of peaks
5. Obstructions
(infrastructure)
1. Inadequate
capacity of river
2. Steep river slope
Effects/impacts
- Peaks
- Duration
- Onset
- Recession
Regions
SW, SC, NW,
NC, NE, SE and
RE
Peaks
Onset
NE, SE and EH
1. High tide
2. Low and flat
coast
1. Low coast
2. Little energy
dissipation
Peaks
SW, SC, SE and

RE
Peaks
SW, SC, SE, EH

and RE
(Source: Blue Accounting: Tentative assessment of the functionality of the water resources systems in Bangladesh and
the Netherlands, Technical note 18, CEGIS)
3.2.2
Drought and Low River flow
Changes in hydrological conditions and agricultural practices have gradually converted Bangladesh
into a drought prone country. The wide range of agricultural crops grown in the Rabi (winter season
crop) and pre- Kharif (March- August) periods become vulnerable to drought at varying degrees.
Based on a review of the data for 1969-84, some analysts argue that drought has been more
devastating for aggregate agricultural production than flood (World Bank, 1998:26). Shortage of
water for agriculture may not be confined to the dry season only, but is felt during three different
periods of the year. Figure 3.2 shows the relation between crop yields and stress days due to drought
for T.Aman in the Jessore Kotwali thana.
11
Percentage of yield loss
Thana: Jessore Kotwali

100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
y = 0.0057x 2.4431
R2 = 0.8245
50.00
60.00
Stress days
Figure 3.2: Percentage of yield loss against stress days
Classification of Kharif (T.Aman)

Drought Prone Areas in Bangladesh
Drought
Classes
Drought
ProneProne
Classes
Very severe
ery
VSevere
Sever
Moderate
Moderat
Slight
Sligh
Non T. Aman area

Non T.Aman
Char land
Char
River
Rive area
Sundarban
Sundarban
Source: BARC , 1990
Source: BARC, 1990
Figure 3.3: Classification of Kharif (T. Aman) in drought prone areas

During monsoon, shortage of rainfall may delay the transplantation of Aman in the Kharif season; in
the dry period (Rabi season) rainfall is insufficient for rainfed agriculture and erratic rainfall may
create drought conditions during the pre-Kharif period (Figure 3.3). Irrigation during the Rabi and
pre-Kharif period would provide increasing constraints on the available ground and surface water.
This has gradually developed into a critical issue for water management in Bangladesh as the country
becomes more and more dependent on the paddy production requiring intensive irrigation in the dry
season.
12
Drought prone areas are mainly located in the western part of Bangladesh. The growing water demand
is seriously challenged in drought prone areas by reduced water availability because of the following
reasons:
Reduced river flow in the dry period because of channel bed siltation, upstream use and
regulation, deforestation and climate change.
Salt water intrusion in the surface water system because of reducing river flow and sea level
rise.
Salinization of aquifers in coastal zones because of lowering of ground water tables and sea
level rise.
Declining ground water tables because of over extraction.
In the last few decades, the flow in many rivers has been declining (Figure 3.4). For example,
during the early 1970s, the Old Brahmaputra and Old Dhaleswari were sharing about 10% of the
Jamuna flow, which reduced to 4% in recent years. Most importantly these perennial
distributaries have now become seasonal distributaries, causing an acute shortage of water during
the dry season.
18
16
Flow in Percent
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Years
Old Brahmaputra flow in % of Jamuna
Dhaleswari flow in % of Jamuna
Gorai flow in % of Ganges
Figure 3.4: Variation in flow of the Old Brahmaputra, Dhaleswari and Gorai over time
3.2.3
Ground water availability and quality
Due to ongoing irrigation developments, ground water mining is becoming a serious problem and
many thanas in the country, in particular in the northwestern part of the country, are already facing
ground water shortages during the dry season.
Four different aquifer systems are identified within the water deployable limit (Table 3.4). GW flow
trend has been found from NW to South-SW direction. Shallow aquifer is mostly exploited for
drinking and irrigation purposes.
In addition, ground water has been reported to be contaminated by arsenic in many parts of the
country, thus affecting its availability and making safe ground water a scarce resource.
13
Table 3.4: Four different aquifers

Aquifer
Depth Meter
Geological era
Upper shallow aquifer
up to 50 m
Recent
Low aquifer
50- 100 m
Holocene.
Deep aquifer
250-500 m
Tertiary.
Deeper aquifer
500-1500 m
Miocene
Source: BWDB, DPHE
It is assumed from different studies that some 20 million people are exposed and about 70 million
more people are potentially at risk of arsenic contamination. The ground water has evidence of arsenic
contamination above the permissible limit of 50 ppb in 59 out of 64 districts. 27% of the shallow tubewells are contaminated as per the Bangladesh standard (excess of 50 ppb) and 46% as per the WHO
standard (excess of 10 ppb). The contaminated aquifer exists within 7-35 m of depth (Source: DPHE).
Arsenic contamination throughout the country is presented in Table 3.5.
Table 3.5: Arsenic contamination in the country
Division
Total
Districts
Arsenic affected
Districts
Total Upazilas
Affected
Upazilas
Dhaka
17
16
119
61
Chittagong
11
87
21
Rajshahi
16
16
123
35
Khulna
10
10
58
42
Barisal
38
18
Sylhet
35
34
6 Divisions
64
59
460
211
Source: DPHE, BGS
Salinity is a major problem in the coastal zones. Ground water in the coastal zones is vulnerable to
saline intrusion. Heavy extraction of water for agricultural or industrial purposes could cause saline
intrusion and render ground water unsuitable for domestic use.
3.2.4
Erosion and accretion
The major river systems of the country are morphologically extremely dynamic, which results in
continuous erosion and accretion processes along the riverbanks and within the channels (chars). It
has been reported, e.g., that during 1982-92, over 100,000 ha of land was eroded in the GangesBrahmaputra-Middle Meghna rivers, while only 19,300 ha was accreted (Bangladesh Water and
Flood Management Strategy, GoB, 1998: 5). Apart from the loss of agricultural land, riverbank
erosion in the rural areas results in the destitution of a significant number of households and in the
loss of public and private infrastructure. Available statistics show that during 1982-92, as many as
405,000 people lost land due to erosion (Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy, GoB,
1998: 5).
Annual erosion is directly proportional with discharge. Hence, in the Brahamaputra-Jamuna the
maximum erosion during 1973-99 was 6,458 ha land with respect to 98,415 m3/s of discharge.
14
3.2.5
Fertilization of floodplain
One important function of the water resources system is to facilitate the process of fertilization of the
floodplains by carrying silt and miscellaneous biomass onto the land. Embankments constructed in
different parts of the country have prevented the silt and the biomass from entering the floodplains. In
the face of reduced natural fertilization of the floodplains, farmers have been using increasing doses of
chemical fertilizers. Two types of problems have ensued from this. Firstly, there has been a depletion
of the natural fertility of the soil; and, secondly, the chemical fertilizers used on croplands have been
washed down to the various surrounding water bodies, thereby polluting the surface water there.
3.2.6
Salinization
20
500
Salinity
15
400
Minimum flow at Gorai
300
10
200
5
100
0
1965
1967
1969
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Year
Figure 3.5: Relation between low flow and salinity

The flow through the Gorai the perennial distributary of the Ganges has been declining since the
mid 1970s and the dry season flow has ceased from the end of the 1980s. This has raised the salinity
level of the water in Khulna (Figure. 3.5) and in the Sundarbans, the largest mangrove forest in the
world.
3.2.7
Surface water quality
The three major categories of contamination are domestic and/or municipal, agricultural and
industrial. Industrial effluents discharged into rivers have created serious hot spots, while agricultural
contamination, though still low, is widespread and the concern is growing about the impact on the
water quality of ponds and beels. The most serious contamination may be with fecal coliforms due to
the disposal of human wastes into the surface water systems. This has created health hazards for
people using the water for domestic purposes. The most detrimental industries for the water sector are
textiles, tanneries, pulp and paper mills, fertilizer, chemical industrial and refineries. Hazardous
chemicals of both organic and inorganic compositions are discharged into the water bodies from all of
these industries usually without adequate treatment.
The highest numbers of industrial establishment in the country are located at and around big cities like
Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna etc. In the NC region, about 33% of the industries are textiles, apparels
and tanneries, of which Dhaka district alone accounts for almost half and Narayanganj about 32%.
15
Minimum flow (m3/s), Gorai
Maximum Salinity (ppt), Khulna
Declining north-to-south fresh water flow that is dependent upon cross-boundary flow has resulted in
the salinity frontier being pushed further to the north. Increasing salinization of surface water is
creating problems for agriculture, open water fisheries and domestic water use. Higher levels of
salinity have allowed more extensive shrimp (bagda) farming, which in turn has contributed to the
national exchequer. Increase in ground water salinity in certain areas has also created problems for
irrigation and health conditions of the population in the concerned areas, while many industries in the
southwestern part of the coastal areas are faced with a shortage of fresh water required for cooling
and/or processing purposes.
About 65% of the total chemicals, plastics and petroleum industries are also located in the NC region,
and concentrated in and around Dhaka, Narayanganj and Gazipur districts (Source: DoE).
Water quality in industrial areas, particularly around Dhaka, is so poor that these rivers can no longer
be considered as a source of water supply for human consumption. Among the polluted areas, the
worst problems are in the River Buriganga situated to the south of Dhaka, where the most significant
source of pollution appears to be from tanneries in the Hazaribag area. In the dry season, the dissolved
oxygen level gets as low as to be non-existent, making the river very toxic. Water quality data at two
stations of the river Buriganga in 1998, Hazaribag and Chandnighat showed that DO and BOD
exceeded tolerable limits in the months of January and February. The seasonal variation of water
quality in the Buriganga is linked with the seasonal flow and the operation of tanneries.
The second most polluted river is the Shitalakhya, flowing from the east of Dhaka. The major
polluters of the river are the Ghorasal Urea Fertilizer Factory and an oil terminal situated on the banks
of the river. Industrial units at Narayangang and Demra are also sources of the pollution. Monitoring
data of the DoE demonstrated that the concentration of dissolved oxygen in the river Shitalakhya
besides the fertilizer factory varies between 2.1 to 2.9 mg/l during low tide (DoE, 1993). For other
connected rivers, there is a specific problem with the Jamuna Fertilizer Factory in the dry season. The
low flow channel has dual functions of being the source of processing water and being the recipient of
wastewater, hence the pollution level is augmented in the river.
One study, undertaken in 2000 near Kaliakor by the Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies
(BCAS), found that a number of textile and leather industries discharge their industrial effluents into a
nearby small water body, the Mokesh Beel. The study concluded that COD, TSS and DO in the water
exceeded standard limits. The study also showed that the total chromium concentration in sediment
and waste waters near the discharge points of the local tannery and textile industries was very high
(standard limit in 0.05 mg/l : NWMP). The concentrations of zinc, lead and cadmium were also found
to be higher than the national standards (DoE, 2001).
3.2.8
Ecosystem maintenance/ protection
The ecosystem is heavily related to the water resource system. The ecosystems of the forests, haors,
beels and baors in many parts of the country have been threatened by expansion of human settlements
and agricultural operations. The Sundarbans in the SW, haors in the NE, floodplains along the main
rivers and intertidal coastal zones are the ecosystems identified for maintenance and protection.
The necessity of ecosystem maintenance/protection has been particularly underlined in the case of the
mangrove forest of the Sundarbans. Apart from the preservation of bio-diversity in that part of the
country, one has to consider the role played by the mangrove forest in providing a degree of
protection from cyclones, which are quite common there.
The Sundarbans cover an area of nearly 5,770 sq. km. and is bound in the north by Bagerhat, Khulna
and Satkhira districts, in the south by the Bay of Bengal, in the east by the Baleswar (or Haringhata)
River, Perojpur, Barisal District, and in the west by the Raimangal and Hariabhanga rivers. At
present, only the Baleswar River is directly linked to the Ganges which principally ensures the inflow
of fresh water into the eastern part of the Sundarbans. This mangrove tract constitutes 44% of the total
forest area in Bangladesh and contributes about 50% of the total revenue derived from the forestry
sector (IUCN, 2002).
The Sundarbans ecosystem is characterized by a very dynamic environment due to the effect of tide,
flooding, salinity and cyclones. As a result, several remarkable species are found here such as
estuarine crocodiles (Crocodilus porosus), spotted deers (Axis axis), dolphins (Platanista gangetica,
Orcaella brevirostris, Peponocephala electra, Neophocaena phocaenoides), marine turtles (Caretta
caretta, Chelonia mydas, Eretmochelys imbricata, Lepidochelys olivacea and Dermochelys coriacea)
and, the flagship species, the Royal Bengal Tiger (Panthera tigris).
16
The Sundarbans is fringed with dense human settlement, putting immense pressure on the forest
ecosystem. Due to the decline in upstream flow the salinity of the Sundarbans is increasing,
particularly in the western region. The impact of this change is not yet clear, but it is evident that it
will influence wildlife populations and vegetation in the long term.
In the Hakaluki haor two major ecosystems i.e., terrestrial and aquatic, are commonly seen. The
homesteads inside this haor are covered with very little vegetation, as they are not too old settlements.
The typical fruit tree species e.g., mango, blackberry, betel nut, coconut, guava etc., and some other
tree species like bamboo, Kodom, Meruk, Hijal, Koroch, Buron etc., are found in and around the
edges of the settlement area. At present there is no wetland/swamp tree species seen inside the haor,
whereas a semi-dense Hijol, Koros, Buron forest were very common before the 70s. These trees were
very much useful for protecting the wave action in settlement areas as well as for protecting rural
roads from floods. The roots of these wetland plants are favorable habitat for big-size fish species.
The majority of the haor aquatic floras are free floating and semi-submerged in nature. Fresh water
fish and other aquatic fauna e.g., frogs, turtles and snakes etc., are almost common. The haor holds a
diverse avian population particularly during the winter months when the migratory birds fly in from
the north.
3.2.9
Waterborne diseases
The most common diseases in Bangladesh are those that are waterborne. Pollution in the water
resulting from human waste disposal and draining of toxic substances of chemical fertilizers and
pesticides from agricultural lands (NEMAP, 1995: 72) contribute to the incidence of gastro-intestinal
and skin diseases. Flood causes scarcities in pure drinking water as surface water gets contaminated
by both organic and inorganic substances. Diarrhea, cholera and other intestine diseases increase
remarkably during and after floods. Moreover, vectors increase rapidly by faster breeding. Vectors are
biting insects such as mosquitoes and sandflies and intermediate hosts such as aquatic snails. Vector
borne diseases are malaria, kala-zar, filariases, the Japanese Encephalities, dengue and
schistosomiasis. The FCD/I elements, like embankment and sluices offer restrictions for the pollutants
to be flushed out which cause increase in water borne diseases.
3.2.10 Fish habitat and bio-diversity
The vast majority of the people in Bangladesh obtain animal protein from fish resources. Reduction in
the number and expanse of wetlands has adversely affected the spawning grounds and habitats of
fishes. Besides, interruptions in the migratory routes of fishes, mainly through the construction of
roads, embankments and off-take siltation have depleted fish stock and adversely affected species
diversity (NEMAP, Vol. II, 1995).
The fisheries sector is reported to account for about 10% of agricultural GDP, 3% of total GDP, 8% of
total export earnings, 60% of animal protein intake and 7% of total protein intake (Source: NWMP,
Vol-2, August 2000). It employs almost two million full-time fishermen and 12 million part-time
fishermen (BBS, 2000). Capture fisheries is of crucial importance for the very poor as a freely
available source of nutrition and income.
3.3
Objectives and Decision Support Indicators
The selection of DSIs is driven by the national water management objectives (Section 3.3.2), which in
turn is rooted in the national development goals (Section 3.3.1). The DSIs are selected as described
in sections 3.3.3 and 3.3.4. Table 3.6 contains an overview of the selected indicators.
17
Sensitivity for
changes WRS
Data
availability
Simplicity
DSI
Relevance for
objective
Table 3.6: Summary of DSIs
Tk/capita/year
Tk/year
# people
Tk/year
Tk/year
Tk/year
H
H
H
H
L
M
M
H
H
M
M
H
H
M
H
H
H
H
H
M
H
H
H
H
Mton/year
Mton/year
Mton/year
Mton/year
Mton/year
H
H
H
H
H
H
M
H
L
M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
Mton/year
% of population
Dimensionless number
between 0 and 1
Per capita intake calories,
proteins per day
# diarrheal cases per year
% of population (rural /
urban) having access
urban) having access
urban) affected
H
H
H
M
H
L
L
L
H
M
H
H
L
M
L
L
Area suitable for settlement

Displaced persons
M
H
H
M
M
M
L
M
Qualitative judgment
Area of specific habitats
# of species endangered
H
H
M
M
H
H
H
H
H
H
M
M
H
H
L
L
L
L
L
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
L
L
Specification
Economic development (per region)

National income
Sectoral income1
Employment1
Foreign currency
Shrimp
earning (only
Cash crops
export)
Paddy
Food security (per region)
Cereal production
Rice (2Aman, 3Boro)
Wheat
Fish production
Capture
Culture
Vulnerability
Loss in floods 1/5 yrs for
cereals and fish
Loss in droughts 1/5 yrs for
cereals and fish
Quality of life (per region)
Poverty index
# people above poverty line
Income
Gini coefficient
distribution
Nutrition
Health
Water borne diseases
Sanitation
Safe water
Public
infrastructure
Access to public facilities

such as medical centers,
schools
Housing
Settlement opportunities
Safety for erosion, floods
and surges
Ecosystem sustainability (per region)
Selected
Sundarbans
ecosystems
Haor area
Floodplain area
Intertidal area
Homestead vegetation
Fish
Habitat
Species composition
Unit
1: Considered sectors proposed: agriculture; livestock; fisheries (capture, culture and shrimp); industries; waterway transportation; forestry;
energy, power generation; energy, offshore oil and gas exploration and exploitation; sand and gravel collection.
2: Monsoon rice- Rain feed
3: Winter rice- Irrigated
3.3.1
National development goals
The national development objectives as formulated in the Fifth Five Year Plan (FFYP) are taken as a
starting point. The FFYP has a series of general objectives, of which the following bear most
relevance for water management purposes.
18
Alleviation of poverty through accelerated economic growth (on an average 7% per annum)
during the plan period to bring about a noticeable improvement in the standard of living by
raising the level of income of the population and meeting basic needs. In this context,
alleviation of poverty will be considered to be synonymous with development.
Improvement in the quality of life of the rural population through mobilization of rural masses
and placing resources at their command as well as channeling increased volume of invisible
resources to the rural economy so as to attain an accelerated growth in rural employment and
income.
Transformation of the rural socio-economic structure into a more equitable, just and
productive one and empowerment of the rural poor through ensuring their increased access to
resources.
Attainment of food production beyond the self-sufficiency level in the shortest possible time
and of higher production of diversified high-valued export goods.
Development of hitherto neglected areas like the northwest region, Chittagong Hill Tracts and
coastal areas.
Protection and preservation of the environment by putting in place adequate regulatory

regimes and effective institutions, keeping in view the need for regeneration, recycling and
optimum exploitation of natural resources consistent with sustainable development.
Reference: NWPo goals and objectives
3.3.2
Selection of national water management objectives
The National Water Resources Management (NWRM) has the overall task to contribute to the
above national development goals. The assessment framework aims to create a mechanism to assess
development of the WRS in terms of these national goals. For this purpose, however, more specific
objectives have to be formulated, which have direct links with the above objectives and at the same
time provide a set of transparent categories for trade-offs in response to the positive and negative
impacts of interventions. In a similar approach, the NWMP has identified six main objectives relevant
for the evaluation of alternative water management strategies (Main Report, Vol. 2, July 2001; page
67):
Economic development;
Poverty alleviation;
Food security;
Public health and safety;
Decent standard of living for the people; and
Protection of the natural environment.

As food security and poverty alleviation are heavily interrelated regarding water issues, they are
combined under the food security item. Similarly, public health and safety and decent standard
of living for the people have been grouped under quality of life. Thus, the following four main
objectives derived from the six NWMP objectives are suggested for the WRM:
Economic development: to facilitate and contribute to a continuous economic development in

the water related sectors, which optimally contributes to the improvement of the standard of
living of the people (e.g., through employment) and gives preference to the so far neglected
areas (coastal zone, the northwest, and the Chittagong Hill Tracts).
Food security: to facilitate and contribute to the countrys self sufficiency in food under
normal and hazardous conditions (floods and droughts). Of primary importance are cereal
(rice and wheat) and fish (protein) production. Crop diversification is considered an additional
19
objective, which serves two purposes: a more diverse crop production that would contribute to
a higher level of food security and the production of cash crops. Livestock is not considered
under food security, but under economic development. If crop diversification is found to serve
mainly cash crop production, it could also be shifted to economic development.
Quality of life: to facilitate and contribute to an improvement of the quality of life and well
being of the people of Bangladesh, with special emphasis on the improvement of quality of
life for the rural and urban poor. Of special relevance for the water manager in this context are
access to safe water and sanitation and fish resources and aspects of safety in the face of such
natural hazards as floods, droughts and storm surges.
Ecosystem sustainability: to facilitate and contribute to the maintenance of sound and healthy
ecosystems and fish resources of Bangladesh. Productive biomass of a healthy ecosystem
houses diversity of species and are consequently more resilient against major exogenous
changes (e.g., natural hazards). Of special importance for water management is the
conditioning of the WRS as fish habitat.
It merits mention that these objectives are system performance objectives of the highest order.
Lower order objectives for a water manager would be more output oriented such as: provide
protection against flooding or provide water for irrigation. These objectives should be derived from
the overall water management performance objectives.
3.3.3
Criteria for the selection of DSIs
DSIs evaluate changes in the WRS, as measured through the SIs in terms of the above selected
objectives; they consider two different kinds of impacts:
Direct impacts on water use categories, such as changes in agricultural or fish

production; and
Aggregated effects of such direct impacts, such as changes in national income and
poverty.
This results in inter-dependent relations between and among the DSIs, in particular with respect to
agriculture, fisheries and environment.
DSIs have been selected on the basis of the following criteria:
Relevance for the objective;
Sensitivity for changes in the WRS (SIs);
Availability of data, with special attention for specification per region; and
Simplicity.
3.3.4
DSIs for economic development
This category considers macro economic indicators, differentiated per region to show spatial
differences and per (water related) sector of the economy. Such differentiation would facilitate an
assessment, which pays special attention to certain regions or sectors. Two income indicators
(national and sectoral income) and two other indicators (employment opportunities and foreign
currency earnings) have been selected.
National income
Macro economic income measures the efficiency of IWRM strategies. It is estimated through
summation of the gross domestic product and earnings from external sources. As mentioned, two
levels are considered to be adequate: national and sectoral.
Policymakers frequently look to the measure of income, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in order
to assess the economic performance of the nation. It is usually hoped that by increasing the growth
20
rate of the GDP many of the stated national objectives for example poverty alleviation, better
nutrition, education and improved public health will be achieved or at least the capacity for meeting
them will be enhanced. Thus, the change in GDP indicates the economic and social development of a
nation, but does not reflect the above development distribution over the population.
Table 3.7: GDP and per capita income of Bangladesh (at current market prices)
Million Taka (at current market prices)
Year
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Total GDP
994,172
1,097,032
1,188,929
1,249,882
1,342,381
1,512,063
1,648,425
1,752,247
1,923,967
GDP
agriculture
GDP
industries
281,098
310,356
324,636
309,631
325,803
374,998
398,329
405,323
439,732
GDP water
transportation
GDP energy
(oil & gas)
Per capita
Income (US $)
35,199
38,103
39,363
40,371
40,826
41,491
42,068
43,971
8,549
9,339
10,916
13,254
14,239
16,168
17,497
18,595
23,281
279.30
279.50
279.30
282.50
293.60
323.70
341.20
348.00
358.10
379.00
145,091
163,493
185,649
207,694
224,976
252,545
277,410
303,439
338,673
Source: Bangladesh Key Challenges for the next Millennium, World Bank, April, 1999
Sectoral income
To measure the efficiency of IWRM only two sectoral incomes have been considered: agriculture and
fisheries. Table 3.7 shows different sectoral contribution to the GDP and Table 3.8 shows sectoral
production values that contribute to the GDP.
Table 3.8: Sectoral production values (national total; at current market prices in million Taka)
Year
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
Agricultural
Crops
184,660
187,633
225,139
235,200
243,254
Fishery
40,127
48,405
56,912
64,870
71,496
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
The following water related sectors are proposed to be considered:
Agriculture;
Livestock;
Fisheries (capture, culture and shrimp);
Industries;
Waterway transportation;
Forestry;
Energy, power generation;
Energy, offshore oil and gas exploration and exploitation;
Sand and gravel collection.

The relations between these sectors and the WRS are obvious. Offshore oil and gas activities are
mainly important from an environmental point of view.
21
Employment
With more than 50% (BBS, 2000) of Bangladesh labor force still employed in the agricultural and
fisheries sector, employment in this country is dependent on the performance of the WRS and a direct
relation can be assumed with those state indicators which affect cereal and fish production. Impacts
on other sectors (above) should also be analyzed in terms of impacts on employment.
Foreign currency earning
Three production categories have been considered which bear relevance for foreign currency earning.
Shrimps generate an important part of the Bangladesh foreign currency income.
Rice production is close to attaining self-sufficiency but still does not have a major influence
on foreign currency earning. However, changes in both a positive and negative direction
might alter this situation significantly. Shortages, for example, due to natural disasters call for
immediate import of the staple crop, thus reducing foreign currency earning.
Cash crops are mentioned as a national objective for crop diversification. However, they are
not yet providing a substantial income, and it is doubtful as to whether its development is
strongly dependent on the WRS. For this reason, it has been decided not to include it in the
DSIs.
3.3.5
DSIs for food security
Aman, Boro and wheat have been considered for cereal production and capture and culture fisheries
for fish production. All these food items are vulnerable to flood and drought. In order to attain food
security, an individual must acquire a given amount of energy in terms of k.cal from food
consumption. The level of energy requirement per capita per day for Bangladesh has been calculated
by various agencies as follows:
Bangladesh National Nutrition Council
2250 k.cal/capita/day
Ministry of Planning
FAO
The population has been increasing over time and the demand for food grows with the increase in the
number of people. The population growth rate in Bangladesh has declined significantly over the years
and in 1995, it stood at 1.96%. This growth rate is expected to go down to 1.16 in 2020. The total
population is now (BBS 1998) 132.4 million and is expected to increase to 153.4 million in 2010 and
172.9 million in 2020. The demand for food grains per capita at present is higher than what is required
for the minimum level of balanced nutrition by about 4%. The projected demand for food grains per
capita in 2020 based on GDP growth rate of 7% will be higher by only 2% as compared to the
corresponding food demand in 1995/96 (Table 3.9). Within a shorter period up to 2005, as compared
to 2020, the demand for food grains will remain relatively high at 6%.
The focus is on self-sufficiency, which continues to be an important national goal. This basically
relates to cereals (rice and wheat) as staple crop and fish as an important source of protein for the rural
population. For both, the WRM plays an important role. The production of rice and wheat becomes
more and more dependent on irrigation during the winter period, which in turn depends on the
availability of ground and surface water. The fish resources also depend on many aspects of water
management, varying from conditioning different fish habitats, such as spawning and breeding
grounds, to maintaining migration routes and good water quality.
22
Table 3.9: Projected Per Capita Daily Consumption Pattern of Various Food Items up to 2020
Based on the GDP Growth Rate of 7% per Annum (gram)
Food
Rural
Year
Urban
National
2005
2010
2020
2005
2010
2020
2005
2010
2020
Rice
521
531
539
408
399
374
486
484
455
Wheat &
44
46
52
65
72
86
51
55
65
other seeds
Source: Draft Final Report of Agriculture Commission, 1999.
What is important for the water manager in relation to food security is to make food production less
vulnerable to natural hazards. This implies that food self-sufficiently should be guaranteed under nonnormal flood and drought conditions.
In addition to food self-sufficiency, crop differentiation has been discussed under food security. The
national goals also refer to the production of high value export crops (cash crops). This is considered
an economic rather than a food security objective. What might be relevant is the diversification of
staple crops, which could be part of a reduced vulnerability. For example, making the country more
and more dependent on the Boro crop would increase its food vulnerability and reduce food security.
In summary, the following indicators are selected: cereal and fish production and their vulnerability.
Cereal production
Production is measured in metric tons per year. It could be decided to focus on Aman and Boro only,
which in 1998-99 represented about 85 % of the total cereal production. Aus constituted about 8 % of
the production but is declining. Wheat constitutes about 7 % and is growing. See Figure 3.6.
30,000
Cereal total
25,000
Mt
aus
20,000
15,000
aman
10,000
5,000
boro
89-90
90-91 91-92
92-93
93-94
94-95
95-96 96-97
97-98 98-99
cereal total 28,830 28,938 29,622 29,865 29,369 27,624 28,946 31,038 31,385 33,125
aus
3,881
aman
14,358 14,303 14,462 15,103 14,697 13,313 13,605 14,935 13,848 12,106
boro
9,622
wheat
890
3,632
3,399
3,237
2,887
2,794
2,615
2,919
2,935
wheat
2,533
Total paddy
9,918 10,616 10,276 10,609 10,201 11,288 11,664 12,734 16,513

1,004
1,065
1,175
1,131
1,244
1,369
1,454
1,802
1,908
total paddy 27,861 27,853 28,477 28,616 28,193 26,308 27,508 29,518 29,517 31,152
Figure 3.6: Cereal production Bangladesh 89-90 to 98-99 (BBS, 2000)

Fish production
For food security only capture and culture fisheries are important. Bagda and golda shrimp cultivation
is only relevant for export and is included under the indicator foreign currency earning. Culture
fisheries relate exclusively to fish pond cultivations such as carp.
23
It is known that the growth of floodplain fish is fast and strongly related to the flood season (Bayley,
1988, Dudley 1972). Furthermore, the growth can vary significantly between years and has been
correlated with flooding intensity and duration and it can be expected that this phenomenon is an
important factor for floodplain fish catch in Bangladesh.
Indeed, fisheries and catch rates are highly seasonal and are related to the flood and water level.
The highest catches are always obtained during the receding of floodwater in the month of October,
and in most years a small peak appears in May, when the water level in the beel is at its lowest level.
Secondly, it seems that the fish yields are related to the extent of flooding, i.e., in dry years such as
92/93 and 94/95, the yields were low if compared with yields obtained during the wet years 97/98 and
98/99 (Table 3.10)
Table 3.10: Annual Fish Yields (Kg/ha/ year) of the F3 land type
Year
Hydrology
Yields (Kg/ha/year)
92/93
Dry
116
93/94
Normal
241
94/95
Dry
137
95/96
Normal
136
96/97
Normal
155
97/98
Wet
179
98/99
Extremely Wet
311
99/2000
Dry
46
(Sources: Floods fish and fisherman, Gertjan de Graff, Bram Born, A.M Kamal Uddin
& Felix Marttin , p-38)
The total production of fisheries in 2000-01 was 1,781,057 metric tons of which inland capture (river,
floodplain & beel) was 669,834 MT and culture was 712,640 MT. The annual growth rate of the last
year was 7.20 % of which the inland total was 5.57 % (see Figure 3.7).
1700000
Capt ur e
1500000
Cult ur e
Count r y Tot al
1300000
MT
1100000
900000
700000
500000
300000
100000
Figure 3.7: Fish production of Bangladesh 1986-89 to 2000-01 (Sources: Fishery statistical
yearbook of Bangladesh, 2000-2001)
Vulnerability
Vulnerability is measured in losses, which would occur to the above food categories under
exceptional conditions. The time spans of once in a 5-year flood period and once in a 5-year drought
24
period have been taken to assess the losses in production under these conditions, compared to average
(or better expected) conditions.
3.3.6
DSIs for quality of life
In addition to being important for public health and housing conditions, the water sector has important
impacts on employment and income and on the condition of public infrastructure, such as medical and
educational centers and the communication network of roads and highways.
Poverty index and income distribution
Poverty is considered to be strongly / exclusively income related, which links it with the water system
mainly through employment in the agricultural and fisheries sectors. It is important is to consider
equity in addition to an average poverty indicator. Certain changes in the WRS might have the
strongest impacts on poor people. Equity is measured through the Gini-coefficient.
The Gini-coefficient is a measure of inequality of wealth or income within a population between 0
and 1. The coefficient is a measure from a graph resulting from the Lorenz distribution of income or
wealth across the full population. The graph plots percent of ownership against percentile of
population. (Ref: Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods).
The Gini-coefficient, calculated for Bangladesh by the World Bank, is shown in Table 3.11.
Table 3.11: Gini-coefficient for Bangladesh, 1995-96
Population in Poverty (%)

1995-96
Rural
47.1
Urban
49.7
Total
47.5
Income Ratio of Highest 20% to Lowest 20%
8.8
Gini Co-eff
0.43
Source: WB, 2000, World Development Indicators.
Health
Public health is strongly related to the water sector. Selected indicators are: nutrition; water borne
diseases; and access to safe water and sanitation. In Bangladesh 95% of drinking water demand is
served by the ground water. Safe drinking water and improved sanitation facilities are given the
highest priority in the National Water Policy. Unsafe or contaminated water and lack of proper
sanitation causes water borne diseases and diarrhea, which cause about 11 % of death per year (BWP,
2000). Lack of safe drinking water is particularly a serious issue in urban areas.
Public infrastructure
Proper functioning of public infrastructure, such as roads and bank protections, is an essential part of
the quality of life of local people. Damages are caused by floods (peaks and duration) and storm
surges. The most severe flood occurred in 1998; 15,000 km paved road, 2,000 km embankment,
550,000 houses, 20,500 Bridge/Culverts, 24,000 education centers and 11,000 industries were
affected (LGED).
Housing
Housing conditions are dominantly determined by the WRS and form a critical issue in Bangladesh
where land is scarce. Of special importance are the erosion susceptibility and exposure to floods and
storm surges. But other conditions are also important, such as availability of water and salinities in the
25
dry season and drainage and ground water conditions. About 550,000 houses were affected in the
1998 floods.
3.3.7
DSIs for ecosystem sustainability
Though widely claimed to be important and strongly linked to the WRS, ecosystem sustainability is
difficult to assess, which in itself contributes to its continual decline. A pragmatic and mainly
qualitative approach is selected which could be based on experts opinions about the impacts of
changes. Two categories of indicators are distinguished: selected ecosystems and fish.
Selected ecosystems
Five main ecosystems have so far been identified in the country as the most important and relevant in
the assessment framework: the Sundarbans in the SW; the haor system in the NE; the floodplain area
along the main rivers; the intertidal area along the coast; and the terrestrial ecosystems encompassed
in the homestead vegetation in rural settlements.
Fish resources
The impact on fish resources is measured through the condition of their habitats and the species
diversity. It has been considered to include habitat conditioning under the functions of the WRS, but
as it is linked to so many other SIs (floods, low flows, water quality, sediment, tidal fluctuations) and
as it is often an explicit decision making criteria, it has been included as a DSI.
3.4
Functions and State Indicators
The selection of functions (Section 3.4.1) and corresponding SIs (Sections 3.4.2 3.4.8) is driven by:
(i) the required information for the assessment of changes in the WRS as defined through the set of
DSIs; and (ii) a thorough understanding of the WRS itself. Table 3.12 contains a summary of the
selected indicators; detailed descriptions are included in Appendix A.
3.4.1
The selection of functions
As mentioned, the approach is based on the understanding that the WRS performs multiple functions
in supporting the country to fulfill its national development goals. The following six specific functions
have been identified to be of exclusive relevance in relation to the selected four objectives (economic
development, food security, quality of life and ecosystem sustainability).
Flood attenuation and drainage. This function refers to the capacity of the WRS to alleviate
river floods through storage of peak river discharges in the floodplains and to drain the excess
stored river and rain water. This capacity is adversely affected by the construction of flood
protection works and other infrastructure such as roads and highways and by the siltation of
the channels of the drainage network. Many human and economic activities, as well as the
ecosystem balance, depend on the regulatory capacity of the water system during the
monsoon and post monsoon period.
26
Data
availability
Simplicity
m,PWD
Days
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
Days
Days
Mm3
Mm3
H
H
H
H
M
H
M
M
mm/m
m3/s
m, PWD
Km
ppt
Days
Km
m3/s
Mm
Km
mg/l
mg/l
mg/l
Numbers
Concentr
-ation
M
M
M
M
L
H
L
H
Specification
Unit
Flood regulation and drainage

FD-1: Peak levels
Maximum water level during monsoon
FD-2: Duration
Length of flood above critical level
(e.g., DL, BF)
FD-3: Onset
Onset is the date, which trigger the
monsoon. It can be measured with
respect to a particular date.
FD-4: Recession
Recession indicate how long flood
water continues. It can be measured
with respect to particular periods in the
post monsoon period.
FD-5: Changes in
Change in floodwater volume in a
water level
particular period during recession time
Water retention and production
WP-1: GW recharge
Recharge availability
WP-2: SW stored
Duration of rainfall and overflowing
rivers
WP-3: Soil moisture
Annually available soil moisture in dry
season
WP-4: Low flows
Minimum available discharge in a
specific time during dry season
WP-5: Min. GW
Maximum ground water depth from a
levels
specific time in a specific location
WP-6: Water depth at Minimum water depth in the channel
critical river section
during dry season
Salinity control (SW)
WC-1: Maximum
Length of salt intrusion from the mouth
Intrusion length
of the Bay at a particular river reach
WC-2: Max salinity
Duration of salinity above critical level
levels
WC-3: Duration
Length of WL in the Bay over critical
level
Tide and storm surge regulation
TS-1: Propagation
Propagation inland reduced to 1/3rd of
its original value at the mouth of the
estuary
TS-2: Tidal
Length of inter tidal storage in a
fluctuation
specific river flow condition
Sediment transport and retention
ST-1: Transport
Transportation of dominant discharge
capacity
in a specific time
ST-2: Sediment
Amount of sediment deposited in
balance
different parts of the floodplains,
intertidal areas and how much are
carried to the Bay of Bengal
ST-3: Channel
Change of morphological dynamics
stability
(i.e., width of the rivers) in a specific
time
ST-4: Sediment
Sediment composition (D50), turbidity
concentration
in water
Waste assimilation
WA-1:
Concentration of selected pollutants
Concentrations
(TSS, pH, Nitrate, Phosphate etc) in the
rivers and stagnant waters
WA-2: BOD
BOD concentration is level of organic
pollution.
WA-3: Coliforms
Untreated Sanitation
WA-4: GW quality
Arsenic, Iron and salinity condition
27
Value free
SI
Relevance
for
objective
Sensitivity
for changes
WRS
Table 3.12: Summary of SIs
Water retention and production. In addition to the above monsoon water related function, an
important function of the WRS is to retain and supply water in the dry period. This has
aspects of regulation and production and relates to the capacity of the system to store water
during the monsoon and to make this water, together with additional cross boundary river
inflows and local rainfall, available during the dry period, for example, in the form of soil
moisture or low flows in the river. The growing population pressure, changes in agricultural
practices, changes in the climate and the consequent rise of sea levels, make this function
growingly important for the development of Bangladesh.
Salinity control. In the coastal areas, the inland intrusion of salt water during the dry period
through the river system and the ground water aquifers, adversely affect many human and
economic activities. The length of intrusion reaches maximum values at the end of the dry
season when the river flows are minimal and the seasonal variation of the water levels in the
Bay of Bengal are maximal. This intrusion is mainly regulated through controlling the
upstream river flows and discharges.
Tide and storm surge regulation. The previous function is related to the attenuation of the
daily tidal water level variations and in particular the alleviation of extreme water levels
during storm surges. The propagation of the tidal and storm surge waves in the upstream
direction in the surface water system is dependent on the water levels at sea and river bed
slope, but also on the energy dissipated in traveling upstream.
Sediment transport and retention. This function deals with the capacity of the system to: (i)
transport the sediment flowing in from upstream through the river and canal system towards
the Bay; and (ii) to retain part of these sediment in the floodplains of Bangladesh to create
higher lands and fertilize them.
Waste assimilation. Human activities create wastes, which are partly discharged into the
WRS, where they are transported, deposited or biodegraded. This function refers to the
capacity of the system to deal with these wastes and bring down the concentration of
discharged contaminating substances at least to acceptable levels for the exposed
environment, human beings and multi purpose activities.
3.4.2
Criteria for the selection of SIs
SIs would represent the above functions in such a way that changes in their values can be assessed in
terms of the DSIs. Conceptually, SIs might refer to different aspects of the state of the WRS:
Inputs, loads and stress, such as low water inflows and discharged loads of
contaminating substances into the WRS;
The physical condition, such as the cross section of channels and the available free
area for flood storage;
The response of the WRS in terms of surface and ground water levels, salinities and
sediment concentrations; and
Classifications (mostly of land) such as flood prone areas (F0-F4), salinity zones or
drought prone areas, which reflect the conditions/impacts of the WRS in the previous
sense.
The first two types of indicators are often subject to human or even management interventions. In
the Blue Accounting approach, we are mainly interested in the third category, which reflects the
inputs and the physical condition of the WRS and is the starting point for the valuing approach in
terms of DSIs. The fourth category can be considered an intermediate category between the SIs of the
third category and the DSIs. They can be used for the valuation of different SI-DSI relations. For
example, the F0-F4 classification would be helpful in assessing crop damage, health conditions and
fish habitat potential. These indicators are also called: intermediate variable (IV).
28
SIs have been selected based on the following criteria:
Value free;
Representative of the system function and in particular, the long-term concern;
Relevant for the decision support indicators;
Availability of data; and
Simplicity.
SIs may be related to each other, but not completely correlated. For example, when the peak water
levels and the duration of floods above danger levels would show a high level of correlation, one of
the two would be considered redundant in characterizing the flood attenuation and drainage function.
3.4.3
SIs for flood attenuation and drainage
Conditions of flooding have important direct and indirect impacts on many aspects of the Bangladesh
society. The capacity of the WRS to attenuate floods and drain the floodplains, for example, has direct
impact on Aman and fish production, quality of life (safety) and ecosystems and through these
impacts on economic development.
Floods in this context should be interpreted broadly: not only in terms of peak values, but also in
terms of onset, duration and recession. Early floods (May) may damage the harvest of the Boro crop,
while late floods may seriously affect the transplanting of the Aman paddy. Fish resources usually
benefit from early and late floods. The following indicators were identified to represent the main
characteristics of the WRS with regard to its capacity for flood attenuation and drainage.
FD-1: Peak levels
These could be taken as maximum water levels during the monsoon at key locations in each
hydrologic region. The height of floods depends mainly on the discharge from upstream, confinement
of the rivers and drainage channels and local rainfall. High peak levels cause damage to public and
private properties, affect many aspects of quality of live, and have direct impact on economic
activities, such as culture fisheries when ponds get submerged. Major floods, however, also increase
the production of open water fish and recharge ground water aquifers, while lower than normal floods
might reduce the production of some crops (Aus and jute) and will reduce fish production in the
floodplains. Figure 3.8 shows the shifting of peak flows in different years.
Shifting of Peak Flow
120000
80000
60000
1979
1983
1984
1986
1988
1966
1978
1994
1976
1981
1989
1995
1967
1991
20000
1987
1965
1980
1977
40000
1992
1993
1969
1990
1968
1970
1985
1982
1972
1975
1974
1973
Peak Flow (cumec)
100000
Month
Figure 3.8: Shifting of peak flow in Jamuna
29
10
FD-2: Duration
The flood duration is the no. of days that flood exceeds a pre-selected critical level, for example the
danger levels as established for the Bangladesh rivers. The duration depends on the amount of flow
coming from upstream, drainage capacity of the channel and downstream water level. A prolonged
duration of floods or submerged conditions cause serious problems to many aspects of life, as
illustrated through the relations in Figure 3.9.
17
Water level (m)
15
Danger level
13
11
9
1987
1988
1998
7
5
1-Jun
21-Jun
11-Jul
31-Jul
20-Aug
9-Sep
29-Sep
Figure 3.9: Flood duration above danger level, Ganges

For example, the 1998 flood caused substantial damage than the 1988 one, specifically due to its
longer duration. The following chart shows the relationship between duration of flood above bankfull
discharge and peak discharges.
FD-3: Onset of floods
expected
onset
Water Level
This criterion is represented by the water level at a

particular location at a specified moment in time
during the pre-monsoon period. This is particularly
relevant for the NE region, where the critical date
could be set at 15 May. This indicator reflects whether
the flood comes early or late (Figure 3.10). It mainly
depends on the rainfall at the upstream basin. Early
floods will damage the Boro crop for harvesting and
might hamper construction work as it reduces dry
season days. However, it may also open up new flow
channels, which facilitate fish migration.
early onset
late onset
C ritical perio d (pre-m o nso o n)
Figure 3.10: Onset of flood
The recession of flood indicator reflects how long

floods drag on. It is represented by the water level at a
particular location at a specified moment in time
during the post-monsoon period, for example, on 15
September. A late recession will cause damage to the
Aman crops but will be beneficial for floodplain
fisheries (Figure 3.11).
expected
recession
late
recession
early recession
C ritic al perio d (po s t-m o ns o o n)
Figure 3.11: Recession of flood
30
Water Level
FD-4: Recession of floods
FD-5: Change in WL
The drainage index is an indicator for the stored flood volumes drained at time t, which could be
assessed through the following expression:
(Hmax Ht )/(Hmax Hmin)
where, Ht represents water levels at the downstream end of a catchment. Hmax represents the maximum
stored water volume at the beginning of the drainage period, while Hmin reflects an expected/desired
volume at the end of the drainage period. The index is designed exclusively for comparing two
situations.
At least one location will be required for each sub-basin within the region to indicate the drainage
condition of the river and the dependent area. For example, the water level at the Bhairab bridge
station of the Upper Meghna River could be an indicator for assessing the drainage condition in the
Surma and Kushiara basin. A higher drainage index would indicate quicker drainage.
SIs for water retention and production
In addition to low flow in the rivers during the dry season, water is available in the floodplains in the
form of soil moisture, ground water and open water bodies. This water is essential to maintain
productivity of the floodplains and support human activities. As water in the soil and surface water
bodies is recharged during the floods, an important parameter is the unprotected area of the
floodplains, which is available for storage of flood waters. The following SIs have been identified.
WP-1: Usable ground water recharge
Gross Usable Recharge is defined as a proportion of potential recharge or annual maximum possible
recharge. The reduction is made to take into account uncertainties associated with the computation,
and was taken as 75% of potential recharge under the MPO. The new information shows that this was
a very conservative figure and it is now taken as 75-100%.
The usable ground water recharge indicates which part of the annual recharge is available for
extraction for domestic, industrial and agricultural purposes mainly. Ground water plays an important
role in the irrigation of Boro, which produces about 50% of the cereal production in Bangladesh.
Apart from the arsenic problem, ground water is the only source of safe drinking water in Bangladesh.
During the dry season, ground water is the main source for water consumption. Therefore, aquifers
need to be recharged by rainfall and floods before the onset of the dry season.
WP-2: Surface water stored
The surface water stored in the floodplains and beels during the dry season is an important indicator
on which many DSIs depend. The dry season water bodies are important habitat for fish and other
aquatic forms of life. These water bodies are also used for peripheral cropland (Boro) irrigation, while
the fish they contain is an important food source. Stored water originates from rainfall and
overflowing rivers. The storage capacity can be reduced by sediment carried by riverine flood waters.
WP-3: Soil moisture content
Water retained in the soil as soil moisture in the dry season is used by the vegetation at or around the
house and by agricultural crops such as wheat and Boro. Terrestrial ecosystems also depend on the
availability of soil moisture in the dry season. Major floods of long duration may lead to more
available soil moisture at the beginning of the dry season for crop and vegetation and to a lower
demand for additional irrigation, which reduces the production cost of Boro and wheat.
WP-4: Minimum water flow
The minimum water flow is the indicator for river water availability for irrigation, domestic and
industrial use and shipping. Minimum flow is also important for fish migration and more in general
for maintaining aquatic ecosystems because the critical period of minimum flow determines the
31
survival of fishes and the aquatic ecosystem. Minimum flow in rivers in the coastal area controls the
salinity intrusion because it is the freshwater flow, which flushes out the brackish water. Hence the
less the flow, the more the saline water intrusion inland.
WP-5: Minimum groundwater levels
Lowering ground water levels affect the accessibility of this source of water for domestic and
agricultural purposes as extractions become more and more difficult and costly. In addition, it may
lead to increasing percolation affecting homestead vegetation. Standing water bodies (including fish
ponds) might also dry out soon.
WP-6: Depth of water at critical river section
Minimum water depth in the channel during dry season affects navigation, fish migration and surface
water irrigation. Navigation transport system suffers highly because of inadequate draft in shallow
water. This hindrance in the water transport industry causes unemployment and distress among the
people.
SIs for salinity control
This regulation functions relates to the capacity of the WRS to prevent intrusion of salt water in
surface and ground water. The intrusion of salt water during the period of low flow in the river plays
an important role in water management. Salinization of the Sundarbans and the upstream agricultural
and industrial area around Khulna in the southwest are national priority issues. Salinization of ground
water aquifers would have serious consequences for living conditions in the coastal areas, where fresh
ground water is intensively used for domestic and agricultural purposes. The natural mechanism is
that saline sea water intrudes upstream in low sloping rivers when the river flow reduces or the sea
levels rise. The length of intrusion reaches maximum values at the end of the dry season when river
flow is minimal. The main indicator would be the maximum salinity levels at certain locations or the
maximum intrusion length.
The function is important in relation to exogenous changes, in particular in Bangladesh: climate
change and upstream developments.
The following are the criteria that have been identified to define the salinity control function.
SC-1: Maximum intrusion length for different critical levels
As mentioned earlier, this indicator depends on the fresh water flow into the system, water levels in
the sea and salinity concentration at the mouth of the estuary. Different critical levels could be defined
related to the use of water, such as 0- 0.5 ppt for domestic use, 1 ppt for crops, 5 ppt for shrimps and
5-10 ppt for the Sundarbans. The intrusion length is measured from the mouth of the respective
estuarine rivers. Changes in salinity intrusion will change the cropping pattern, land use and
ecosystem as a whole. Higher salinities will adversely affect crop production and public health, but
may allow shrimp cultivation. This indicator maps the exposure of salt sensitive human and
economic activities and ecosystems. The next two indicators are expected to be needed to assess the
real damages.
SC-2: Maximum salinity levels at specific locations
This indicator is complementary to the previous one and is expected to be needed to develop damage
functions and assess the damages because critical levels have been exceeded.
SC-3: Duration of salinity above critical level at specific locations
This indicator represents the duration of exposure to salt water when exceeding critical
concentrations. Also this indicator is considered complementary for the assessment of damages.
32
SIs for tide and storm surge regulation

Two state indicators have been identified for the tide and storm surge regulation function of the WRS.
TS-1: Length of propagation at 1/3rd of surge height
In order to measure the severity of the impact of storm surges, the exposed area is estimated to extend
to where the height of the surge, propagating inland, is reduced to 1/3 of its original value at the
mouth of the estuary. The length of the surge propagation depends on the geometry of the estuarine
channels, confinements and storage capacity, river flow conditions and cyclone intensity.
Depending upon the severity of the surge and the exposed area, main impacts are expected to be on
public and private infrastructure.
TS-2: Tidal fluctuations
Daily tidal fluctuations propagate inland in a similar way as the storm surge. Their gradual reduction
depends on the geometry of the estuarine channels, the sea level and fluctuations at the mouth of the
channel, inter-tidal storage and river flow conditions. During the dry season, tides intrude more
upstream into the estuary than during the monsoon period. The intertidal area, which stores the tidal
prism and is flooded twice daily, is a biologically productive area that plays an important and
supporting role for many ecosystems, species and human activities. Related to these human activities
the tidal variations are in fact controversial. On the one hand they flush the WRS, bring sediment and
create new lands; on the other hand they bring inundations and salt water, adversely affecting many
human activities.
SIs for sediment transport and retention
Two different sediment related aspects are covered under this function. The first deals with the
morphologic dynamics of the rivers, which directly depends on the hydraulic conditions of the WRS.
For example, an increase in discharges will lead to an increase in sediment transport capacity and to a
morphologically more dynamic river, which might result in increased erosion and accretion processes.
The second aspect relates to the distribution of the sediment carried by the main rivers into the delta.
Parts will settle in the different floodplains of the country, some in the tidal area and the rest is carried
onwards to the Bay. Both aspects are related. For example, reducing the sedimentation in the
floodplains by flood protection works will increase the sediment load of the rivers. This may exceed
their transport capacity, which might lead to an intensification of the river-morphologic processes.
The following indicators are considered representative of these processes
ST-1: Transport capacity
The sediment transport capacity of the major rivers can be valued by the average bank-full discharge
or by the dominant discharge (permanent discharge at which the river would transport the same
amount of sediment as the fluctuating river). Based on such estimates, an assessment can be made of
the impact of sediment transport capacity on quality of life DSIs such as poverty and housing
conditions (Figure 3.13). Transport capacity depends on river discharges, sediment type and
concentration, river geometry and slope, and composition of bank materials.
ST-2: Sediment balance
The sediment balance indicator will indicate which part of the sediment entering the system is
deposited in different parts of the floodplains and the intertidal areas and how much is carried into the
Bay of Bengal. Interventions, which prevent sediment from reaching and settling in the floodplains,
will change this balance. Changes in the sediment balance will change the haor, floodplain and intertidal basin ecosystems; they may also change the morphologic characteristics of the main rivers.
33
ST-3: Channel stability or morphologic dynamics

Channel stability is a morphologic condition of the channel in that the sinuosity, cross-sectional
dimensions and profile are constant. Even if the channel moves laterally over time, it still maintains
its characteristics such as the bank full width and width-depth ratio. That means no net change could
occur in a perfectly stable channel by shape dimensions, flow regime and especially in channel
forming flow.
Channel-Forming Flow is a theoretical, constant discharge that would result in a channel morphology
close to the existing channel. Extreme flood flows generally have little effect on channel morphology
because they are so rare. More frequently occurring flows with a 1.5 to 2 year recurrence interval are
generally the dominant channel-forming flows in stable, natural streams (Schueler, 1987 and Rosgen,
1996). Hydrologic changes that increase these flows can cause the stream to become unstable. Such
instability causes excessive erosion at various locations throughout the stream reach.
Causes of stream bank erosion are mainly (a) unstable channel morphology, (b) significant changes in
the hydrologic characteristics of the watershed, (c) change in the stream form impacting on the
adjacent portions of the stream, i.e., dredging, straightening, (d) natural river dynamics, (e) large wave
action, (f) infrequent event, (g) concentrated runoff adjacent to the streambank and (h) sparse plant
cover due to regular foot traffic.
Channel stability must be assessed so that proposed solutions for the problem of erosion will address
the cause and not shift it to another location.
ST-4: Sediment concentration
The concentration of sediment affects the condition of aquatic ecosystems. For example, high
turbidities affect micro-organisms and some fish species might avoid migration routes in case the
concentration is too high. Sediment concentration is considered an important parameter, next to
salinity, which determines the condition of the Sundarbans ecosystems. The concentration of sediment
depends, among other things, on the sediment composition (D50) and hydraulic conditions.
SIs for waste assimilation
The WRS of lower riparian countries such as Bangladesh have to assimilate the wastes discharged
into the system within the country but also have to deal with the wastes of upstream countries. The
waste assimilation capacity refers to the natural capacity to bring down the concentration of
discharged contaminating substances at least to acceptable levels for the exposed environment and
human beings. This capacity depends mainly on physical, chemical and biological processes of biodegradation and on the capacity to transport the contaminating substances beyond the boundaries of
the considered system.
Wastes that remain inside the WRS can have a variety of effects, which depends on the concentration
and characteristic of the wastes and on the exposed environment. Impacts are typically time and
location specific. Yearly and country average concentrations are not very useful as they hide small hot
spots where high concentrations can have disastrous effects. An important aspect and in particular in
delta areas is the accumulation of harmful substances in the WRS, e.g., through the deposition of
contaminated sediment. Such deposits, over time, may develop to become the sources of
contamination, which will be extremely difficult (and costly) to handle, as is nowadays experienced in
the Rhine delta in the Netherlands.
In combination with the enormous variety of contaminating substances, it is difficult to select
meaningful indicators for the analytical framework for water resources planning. The following
indicators have been identified.
34
WA-1: Concentration of selected pollutants in rivers and stagnant water

(TSS, pH, Nitrate, Phosphate, etc.)
The concentration of respective pollutants depends on the quantity and quality of water inflows from
upstream, quality of local runoff (non-point discharges; e.g., storm and agricultural run-off) and pointsource discharges (e.g., effluent discharges from industries and sewage outfalls). Concentrations of
Nitrate and Phosphate can be an indicator whether stagnant water bodies become eutrophic or not.
Values of total suspended solids (TSS) and pH (degree of acidity or alkalinity) will be indicative
whether water bodies will support certain species as habitat or not.
WA-2: BOD in the river and stagnant water bodies
The Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) is a useful general indicator for the level of organic water
pollution. 4 mg/l BOD is considered to be a critical value for recreational and domestic use. Higher
values correspond to higher pollution levels. The standard value of BOD is 3mg/l. BOD values of
water in the Buriganga River can be as high as 11-18 mg/l during low flow conditions, while they are
back to values 3-4 mg/l during the monsoon months of July-September. The BOD indicator is
especially important in relation to open water fish production, which will be reduced if the BOD in
the river and stagnant water bodies increases.
WA-3: Coliforms in the river and stagnant water bodies
The level of coliform bacteria in rivers and stagnant water bodies is a growing concern for water
managers. Sources are the untreated human and other animals excreta. The lack of proper sanitation
facilities in Bangladesh aggravates the problem, and is responsible for many water borne diseases.
WA-4: Ground water quality
Currently in Bangladesh, public water supply mostly depends on ground water, which was widely
promoted as a reliable and accessible source of safe drinking water until the arsenic problem emerged.
Salinity in ground water is another problem. A ground water quality indicator could simply indicate
whether such water is suitable for human consumption. Where ground water quality is insufficient, an
important IV could be the access (e.g., distance) to alternative sources of drinking water.
3.5
The SI-DSI relational matrix
The relational matrix in Figure 3.13 shows how DSIs are assumed to depend on the SIs. The use of
this matrix is to support the design of the computational framework in Chapter 4. The following
considerations merit mention.
The identified relations represent the opinion of the authors of this report. The identification
considered the sensitivity of the DSIs for changes in the SIs. For the reason of simplification
only the three or four main relations are indicated.
It is repeated that the framework aims to compare different situations with respect to, e.g.,
autonomous developments or interventions and thus only aims to assess changes and not to
attach value to a state of condition of the WRS.
Relations between the SIs and DSIs can be in many forms, including qualitative judgments of
experts, statistical relations, mathematical functions or complete computer models. For
example, impacts of changes in the salt water intrusion on the Sundarbans might be qualified
as positive or neutral, based on expert-opinions, while impacts of changes in the duration of
submerged conditions on Aman production might be expressed in Mtons per year, after
application of computer models.
SIs represent the state of the WRS, being a combination of the physio-geographical features
of the area and man-made infrastructure. For example, the peak water levels and drainage
35
conditions would reflect the natural condition of the rivers and the terrain as well as the
situation with embanked areas and existing roads and highways. If the water levels inside and
outside embanked areas are important for Aman production and subject to changes as a
function of expected interventions, they should both form relevant SIs.
Relations might assume reactions of water users, which can be attributed to non-structural
measures. For example, under the same set of values of changes of SIs the impact on safe
(arsenic free) water might be affected by a subsidy arrangement to install deep tube-wells.
Such measures could even be part of one of the strategies that the framework aims to assess,
and should thus be properly considered in the IFs.
Different relational matrices should be developed for the hydrological regions. The generic
matrix of Figure 3.12 only serves the purpose of the design of the computational framework.
For the application of that framework, regional differences should be accounted for.
WRS functions can be characterized by a number of different indicators, depending on the complexity
of the overall function vis--vis different components of the WRS. This section of the report attempts
to establish the relationship of SIs and DSIs to develop mechanisms of relative values by linking these
functions to policy objectives (economic development, food security, quality of life and ecosystem
sustainability).
Flood attenuation and drainage
No development can be conceived in Bangladesh which is not related to the flooding regime, whether
low or peak flow. Whether the indicator will be effective in the decision making process will depend
on the appropriate account of the important physical, economic, social and environmental systems.
The maximum flood level as well as extent of flooded area and duration of flooding can, for example,
characterize flood regulation.
As a first step in analyzing the relation between the flood regulation functions of water with the
selected DSI it is useful to consider the major exploitation of the water resources. The water is
basically used for requirement or for demand. Requirements are non-replaceable needs such as
drinking, food production, fish production, cleaning, fire fighting and environmental purposes
whereas demands are for water related services such as transportation. A considerable number of
interrelated ecological processes are associated with the floodwater and these play a key role in
supporting agriculture, fisheries, navigation etc.
Water level data has been analyzed to asses at the river situation during the onset, peak and recession
of floods in the major rivers at the Hardinge Bridge, Gorai Railway Bridge, Bahadurabad and Bhairab
Bazar. All these stations flowed below their respective danger levels all through the season in the year
2001. But at the upstream of the Ganges, the Surma-Kushiara and the Padma flowed above their
respective danger levels varying from 1 to 53 days during the monsoon of 2001.
The mean daily water level data has been analyzed to obtain the probable decadal water level for
different frequencies and compared with the danger level. The setting of the average year water level
shows a normal flood within the 50 cm below danger level.
The main characteristics of the water level situation of the year 2001 are summarized in Figure 3.13.
Figure 3.13 shows the schematic diagram representing the river situation of 2001 compared to the
average annual flood peak (1:2 year). It shows that the Padma, Mohananda and Kushiara rivers
flowed above the average annual peak water level. Table 3.20 illustrates that the major rivers at
different points flowed below the danger level all through the season. But the water level at Aricha,
Bhagykul, Kanaighat and Chapai-Nawabganj flowed above the danger level for a significant time.
The incidence probabilities of flood duration at the above stations were found within a range of 19 to
71%. The onset of 2001 flood was delayed for most of the river points except at the Gorai Railway
Bridge and Kanaighat.
36
The recession characteristic of the 2001 flood was faster for the major rivers at these four points, but
the Padma and Mohananda rivers receded much later than the usual average year conditions, which
caused localized flooding in the vicinity of the area.
The tide amplitudes vary widely between neap and spring tide. The variation of tidal ranges depends
on the river characteristics and location. The mean tide level at the Hiron Point has been observed as
+0.65m pwd. The ranges were between 0.83 to 2.13 m pwd during mean low and high water spring
and 0.45 to 1.45 m pwd during mean low and high water neap, which is within the lowest and
highest astronomical heights. All other points at the Char Chenga, Khepupara and Sandwip range are
within the mean astronomical tide levels.
S ch em atic d iagram sh ow in g average an n u al flood p eak
w ith m axim u m w ater level of 2001
25
Pankha
Mohananda
N oo n kh aw a
C hilm ari
C h ap ai-N aw ab ganj
20
B ah adu rabad
Ga
nge
Jamuna
Water Level (m, PWD)
30
15
H ard in ge B rid ge
A m alshid
O
Jam alpur
ld
Br
S erajganj
ah
ap
ut
M ym ensin gh
ra
Ku
10
A rich a
Pa
dm
B hag yk ul
0
30 0
Meghna
3 50
4 00
450
5 00
sh i
ya
S h eo la
ra
B h airab B azar
C h an dp u r
5 50
60 0
65 0
7 00
750
80 0
D istance in kilom eter (B T M )
A verage A nnu al F lood P eak
M axim u m W L 200 1
Figure 3.13: Schematic diagram showing the river situation of 2001 compared to average annual flood
peak
The peak discharges at the Hardinge Bridge, Bahadurabad and Bhairab Bazar are combined for the
periods of 1964 to 1993 and compared with the corresponding reported flooded areas. A regression
analysis shows that the combined discharge explains around 60% of the variations in the flooded areas
(Figure 3.14). The combined peak discharge of the above three major stations for 2001 was computed
as 108,548 cumec. From the regressed graph it is observed that only 9120 sq. km of area was flooded
during the monsoon.
To observe the classifications of the 2001 flood, the flooded areas have been analyzed using the
Gumble type I distribution. The predicted flooded area and the percentage of the total area of
Bangladesh with different return periods are shown in Figure 3.15. In an average year, the inundated
area is found to be approximately 27,217 sq. km which is19% of the total land area in an average
year.
A large area of the country is flooded by rainfall and by over spill water from the three great rivers
the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. A considerable number of inter-related processes are
associated with the floodwaters and these play a key role in supporting food production (agriculture
and fish production components of DSIs). For example, it enables the fundamental process of land
formation itself to occur and also bring great benefit that underpin the agro-ecology and economy of
the entire country. Silt carried in by each flood replenishes the nutrient content in the soil.
37

Decision Support Indicator (DSI)
Species diversity
Habitat
Floodplain area
Haor area
Sundarbans
Intertidal area
1
3
ES-7
Fish
ES-6
ES-2
Droughts
FS-7
ES-1
Floods
FS-6
2
3r
QL-8 Settlement
Safety(erosion, floods
QL-9 and surges)
Capture fisheries
Culture fisheries
(ponds,)
FS-4
ES-5
ES-4
Ecosystem support
ES-3
QL-7 Public infrastructure
Wheat (irri)
FS-3
QL-6 Access to safe water
Boro
FS-5
Aman
FS-2
H'sing
Ecosystem sustainability
Health
FS-1
ED-6 Rice
ED-5 Shrimp
ED-4 Employment
ED-3 Fisheries
Vul
QL-5 Sanitation
Fish
QL-4 Water borne diseases
Cereal
Total
rice
ED-2 Agriculture
ED-1 National income
State Indicators (SI)
Quality of life
QL-3 Nutrition
Foregin
currency
earning
Sectoral
income
Flood attenuation and drainage

FD-1 Peak (annual, freq.)
m
Duration of submerged
conditions above critical
FD-2 levels (e.g., above
DL/bank full/Aman)
days 1
Onset of flood (e.g., water
FD-3 level in mid May)
m
Recession of flood (e.g.,
FD-4 water level in mid August)
m
Change in water level
FD-5 ((Hmax - Ht)/(Hmax Hmin))
%
WP-1 Usable groundwater
Mm3 2
recharge
Surface water stored in the
WP-2 flood plain during the dry
period
Mm3
WP-3 Soil moisture content
mm/m
Surface water availability:
WP-4 minimum river flows
Mm3 3
Minimum groundwater
WP-5 levels
m
Depth of water at critical
WP-6 river section
m
Salinity control (Surface water)
Maximum intrusion length
SC-1 for different critical levels km
Max salinity level at
SC-2 specific locations
ppt
Duration of salinities
SC-3 above critical levels at
days
specific locations
TS-1 Length of propagation at
1/3rd of surge height
km
TS-2 Tidal fluctuations
m
Sediment transport /retention
Transport capacity:
ST-1 dominant discharges
m3/s
Sediment balance:
distribution of sediments,
ST-2 incl. floodplain
sedimentation
mm
Channel
ST-3 stability/morphologic
dynamics: width of rivers km
ST-4 Sediment concentration
mg/l
Waste assimilation
Concentration of selected
pollutants in rivers and
WA-1 stagnant waters (TSS, Ph,
temp, Nitrate, Phosphate,
etc.)
mg/l
BOD in rivers and
WA-2 stagnant water
mg/l
Coliforms in rivers and
WA-3 stagnant waters
no.
Groundwater quality
WA-4 parameters ( Iron, arsenic,
salinity ..)
con.
Food security
QL-1 Proverty index

Income distribution (Gini
QL-2 coefficient)
Economic development
1
3
1
3
3
2
3r
3r
3r
2
1
3
3
3
2
1
2
Relation exists
# Strong relationship
Relationship not strong
No relationship
Note: The numbers within each column represent the significant relationships within the strong relationship [ 1 = most significant, 2 = moderately significant, 3 =
significant
Figure 3.12: SI-DSI relations

38
3r
Flood area and peak discharges of three major river

100
Flooded area ('000 sq km)
80
60
40
20
0
100000
110000
120000
130000
140000
150000
160000
170000
180000
190000
200000
Combined peak discharge (cumecs)
Figure 3.14: Comparison of flooded area and combined peak discharges of the three major
rivers
To observe the classifications of the 2001 flood, the flooded areas have been analyzed using the
Gumble type I distribution. The predicted flooded area and percentage of the total area of Bangladesh
with different return periods are shown in Figure 3.15. In an average year, the inundated area is found
to be approximately 27,217 sq. km which is19% of the total land area in an average year.
Figure 3.15: Frequency of occurrence of inundation for the whole country

The shallow warm waters of the floodplains also provide the conditions necessary for nitrogen fixing
blue green algae to proliferate in the water column and on submerged decomposing plant material
(such as the stems of paddy and jute). Floods also bring suspended and dissolved nutrients from
upstream and provide the condition necessary to chemically reduce nutrients such as phosphorous
and make them available once again for plant growth. In areas prone to deep flooding, deficiencies
39
tend to occur in certain nutrients (e.g., sulphur and zinc) and crops in these areas often require the
application of more fertilizer.
Normal annual floods are generally beneficial. However, when abnormal major flood events occur,
such as those of 1987, 1988, and 1998 substantial damage to the crops and asset loss occurred.
According to available information, once in every ten years, roughly 37% of the country gets severely
affected by flood. At times the intensity and extent of flood reach extreme dimensions. Thus, in 1988
and 1998, around 60% of the land area in Bangladesh was inundated. Losses in 1987 and 1988 have
been estimated at US$ 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion, respectively.
The 1998 flood spanned a period of 11 weeks compared to 2 weeks duration in 1988. The long
duration and depth of the 1998 monsoon flood may have affected approximately 30 million people,
but fewer than 1000 people died compared to 1500 in 1987 and in 1988. Houses were destroyed and
infrastructure such as tube-wells and latrines were damaged. Losses to assets have been estimated at
$2 billion.
120,000
6
80,000
4
40,000
% of Loss
Production Loss
(MT)
2
0
2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 3.00 3.20 3.40 3.60 3.80 4.00
Production Loss
(mt)
10
160,000
585856
80
512624
70
439392
60
366160
50
292928
40
219696
30
146464
20
73232
10
0
0
5.6
May 15 WL
5.8 6.0
6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
Sep 15 WL
Figure 3.16: Aman and Boro production loss in the Meghna basin
In the north-eastern region of the country, excessive rainfall (annual average of 5,700 mm, compared
to the national average of 2,300 mm; Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy, GoB, 1998:
4) often results in flash floods originating in the hills, causing extensive damage to the winter Boro
rice crop. Peak duration of submerged conditions above the critical level may seriously damage the
Aman crop and the onset of floods will also seriously damage the Boro crop in the field for
harvesting.
The water level of May 15th has a significant relation with the Boro crop (Figure 3.16). In the
Meghna dependent area the Boro crop start loss at water level 2.4m. With the rise of 1.5 meter water
level the loss increases to about 10%. On the other hand, the loss of Aman starts at about September
15th when water level reaches 5.6 meter. With additional increase of 1.5 meter the loss of Aman
increases to more than 50%.
In the dry session water retention and production are based on usable ground water recharge, open
water bodies, and soil moisture. Based on a review of the data for the period of 1969-84, some
analysts argue that drought has been more devastating to aggregate agricultural production than flood.
During the period 1950-79, droughts affected 20% of the country (World Bank 1998). During 199495, droughts had adverse impacts on the command areas of shallow tube wells, low lift pumps and
traditional irrigation systems. Droughts reduce soil moisture and cause water shortages during the
Rabi season. These shortages relate to low river flows and the lowering of ground water tables, which
might be affected by low discharges from upstream watersheds and reduced recharge of ground water
aquifers during floods. Compensatory crop production during the post flood situation may offset
monsoon season losses.
40
% of loss
Am an production loss by Flood, Megna
Boro Production Loss by Flood , Megna
Usable ground water recharge has a relation with the Flood Drainage Index (FDI). Figure 3:17 shows
the relation between usable recharge with floodwater drainage index specifically for the Jamuna basin.
In the three major rivers it is seen that recharge is proportional to FDI. FDI represents the recession
of flood. A late recession cause damage to Aman crop but it boosts up floodplain fisheries. Recent
estimates of overall floodplain production suggests that the inland capture fishery (FS-4) of
Bangladesh is the second highest in the world and Bangladesh supports exceptionally high
biodiversity. Fish consumption constitutes three quarters of the animal protein in Bangladesh.
Fisheries production is related to the flood level through depth, extent and duration. Floodwaters also
provide connectivity of the fish habitat between the floodplains and the river systems, facilitating
migration of fishes for spawning and feeding.
Relationship between FDI and Recharge in Jamuna Basin
1000
Recharge (mm)
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
444
494
544
594
644
694
744
794
844
Flood Drainage Index (FDI)
Figure 3.17: Relationship with usable recharge with the Flood Drainage Index
Based on the different FAP studies (FAP 3.1, FAP-5, FAP-17 and FAP-20) Hill and Hanchett (1995)
indicated that fish production is related with the area of fish habitat. To control flood under FCDI
conditions, the MPO (1990) and FAP-5 (1992) indicated that 65% of the F3 and F4 categories of land
are converted into F1 and F2 categories, while the rest of the 35% is unchanged. The transformation
has serious impact on fish habitat and production.
Fish production (FS-4) is also affected by the duration of the inundation. Decrease in the inundation
period reduces the growth period of fish, consequently reducing the size of the captured fish.
Connectivity of floodplain water with the river system is important for the recruitment of fish stock.
Table 3:13 shows the habitat wise historical fish catch in Bangladesh. Fish that spend the dry season
months predominantly in the rivers are the carp species, which are of major commercial and
nutritional value. In general, these species spawn upstream in the major rivers at the beginning of the
rainy season. Once spawning has taken place, the eggs, larvae and some adults are carried
downstream with the prevailing water currents and into the highly productive water bodies of the
floodplains (beels, baors and haors, etc). This environment provides a rich feeding habitat, and it is
here that most fishes are reared naturally and gain weight. As the water level declines, the river fish
move back into the rivers where they spend most of the dry season. A case study conducted by Alam
et.al., on three beels, Chanda, BKSB and Halti ( in Tsai and Ali,1997) indicated that production of
fishes was higher in the Chanda beel which maintains connectivity of the floodplains throughout the
year.
41
Table 3.13: Habitat wise Historical Fish Catch (MT) in Bangladesh

Year
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97
River
181,140
173,441
137,444
124,843
138,740
143,425 152,607 165,637 159,660
Floodplain
186,126
193,762
249,083
295,185
329,574
360,597 367,558 369,333 362,453
Beel
47,019
46,621
47,923
49,201
53,019
55,592
Total
414,285
413,824
434,450
469,229
521,333
559,614 578,463 595,738 584,911
58,298
60,768
62,798
Source: FRSS published data

Water availability is also affected by the intrusion of salt water into the surface and ground water
systems, which in turn are stimulated as well by low river discharges.
Salinity control (SW)
Salinity in the coastal region of Bangladesh during the dry season is a growing threat to the countrys
economy and the ecosystem. Saline soils are being formed in the coastal region due to the continuous
accumulation of salt from tidal flooding due to inadequate salt removal by leaching or washing by
rain or freshwater flushing. Dry season salinity develops mainly due to the capillary rise from ground
water. The freshwater flow from the main rivers and their distributaries push the salinity down.
During the flood season, huge amounts of overland flow and massive rainfall leaches and washes the
soil salt content reducing soil salinity. However, freshwater flow in the dry season has been on the
decline over the last decades mainly due the reduction in the Ganges flow. This allows the salinity
penetration of river water to push inland. Salt water is therefore being increasingly used for irrigation.
Consequently, farmlands are degraded and suffer from the lack of safe irrigation and domestic water
use.
Salinity in drinking water has affected health conditions of the population [QL-6]. Due to salinity
intrusion, many industries in the south-western part of the coastal areas are faced with a shortage of
fresh water required for cooling and/or processing purposes.
Waste Assimilation
Waste assimilation is a process to bring down the concentration waste in the WRS. This process has
profound implications for all efforts towards ensuring the security of water supplies and protecting
water resources against contamination. Furthermore, water has an ecological significance of its own
and it contains many forms of life. Wetlands and estuaries, for example, are highly valued aquatic
ecosystems. Changes in water quality have immediate consequences on the ecological functioning of
these systems. A concern over water quality relates not only to the water itself, but also to the dangers
of the bio-accumulation of harmful substances in the food web and chains dependent on water.
There are three main factors which affect water quality: the quality of inflow from the upstream, local
runoff quality (including fecal and agricultural chemical runoff) and point source discharges
(normally effluent discharges from industries, but also sewerage outfalls).
The Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) and Chemical Oxygen Demand
(COD) are the three parameters, which are useful indicators of pollution in the water. The DO is an
indicator of the aerating condition of water. The higher the value of DO, the better the quality of
water, and vice versa. The critical value of DO for recreation and domestic use is 4 mg/l. BOD and
COD on the other hand are indicators of contaminated water with pollutant loads of biological such as
dead organic debris and bacteria and chemical substances, respectively. In unpolluted water all the
values of these parameters are expected to be high, i.e., more oxygen is required to oxidize the
pollutant contents of the water. The standard value of BOD and COD is 3mg/l and 200mg/l
respectively.
42
Environmental Impact Assessment Studies of Floods conducted by DoE in 1998 indicates that DO
value in the flooded surface water is less than the river water. The flood water was 1.78 mg/l whereas
the river water was 4.69 mg/l during early flood in Sept. 98. The DO content is very low to nonexistent during the dry season when the rivers remain in low flow.
Discharging of industrial effluents into rivers has had adverse effects on the quality of river-water in a
number of places in the country. Disposal of human wastes into rivers has also affected the quality of
surface water. This has created health hazards for people using the water for the purposes of drinking,
cooking, bathing, etc. The pollution has affected the aquatic ecosystem [ES-2,3], thereby hampering
biodiversity. The DoE industrial pollution survey listed 2300 industrial facilities and identifies
pollution hotspots around Dhaka, Chittagong and Khulna where polluting industries are located.
Water quality data of the rivers where most effluents are discharged shows seasonal variation in
pollution load.
Water quality measurements in some of the rural areas are available which indicates that there is
considerable seasonal variation in water quality parameters in the flooded water. Limnological studies
conducted by Paul and Mazid in 1997 indicate that dissolved oxygen content has two peaks, once
during the month of January (4.66 mg/l) and the other in the month of August (6.20 mg/l)
corresponding to lower river stage and high flood peak.
Many of the ponds in Bangladesh have become polluted by different kinds of pollutants. Ponds need
to be properly maintained for ensuring availability of good quality water for domestic use.
3.6
Priorities determining the most important SIs and DSIs
Applying the analytical framework to plan studies, e.g., for the NWMP, requires the quantification of
the SIs and DSIs listed in the previous sections. It also requires determining the relations between the
SIs and DSIs, which are often complex and for which mathematical models will have to be used. This
is an enormous task given the spatial and temporal dimensions involved. It will not be possible to
determine all SIs and DSIs at the same level of accuracy. Choices will have to be made as to which
SIs and DSIs could be the most important ones for decision makers and should be worked out in detail
in the computational framework. Other SIs and DSIs can be included in the analysis in a more
qualitative way. When time permits, the system can slowly grow by including more and more SIs and
DSIs.
43
Chapter 4
The computational framework
This chapter introduces the main outline of the computational framework based on the conceptual
framework and in particular the SI-DSI structure described in Chapter 3. The computational
framework consists of a set of models and databases and the procedures for their operation and
interaction or communication. The aim of such a framework is to provide information for decision
making. In order to make optimal use of experiences and avoid duplication, the outline presents the
existing models and experiences.
After intensive review of the existing available models and tools the general design specifications and
the architecture design of the computational framework has been furnished. However, it might need
further tuning during the development and implementation phases which would be done in close
coordination with the relevant development partners. An overall and general view of the
computational framework is presented in Section 4.1.
4.1
Overall structure of the computational framework
A modular structure has been adopted to maintain flexibility for adding new modules and changing
approaches. It may be emphasized that the presented outline only depicts the framework in its broad
set-up, identifying modules, their functions and boundary conditions for their development. Each of
the identified models needs detailed and separate analyses.
The general structure distinguishes the following categories or levels (see Figure 4.1).
Strategies. On this level, special techniques, even computerized, could be developed that
support the formulation of complicated strategies being a combination of, e.g., structural
and non-structural measures.
Scenarios. The purpose of this level is to generate scenarios. Two types of scenarios, external
and internal, could affect the overall system. These models would be used to make boundary
data as input for the NWRS for the effect of cross border flow and sea level rise. They would
also be used for projections of land use, economic and demographic development or to feed
data in the NWRS model and activity modules (see Figure 4.1).
National Water Resource System. It will simulate the hydrologic and hydraulic processes at a
coarser level for the whole country in order to produce the effects of various alternatives for
management strategies or other events in terms of water resources state indicators, as change
from a reference state. The NWRS consists of a Main River Model (MRM), Water Balance
Model (WBM), and some other process modules e.g., salinity intrusion and water quality
modules.
Specific Process modules. These modules receive inputs from the NWRS model or from
databases to generate water resource state indicators or IVs for activity modules or impact
modules. These modules are more problem specific and for reducing computational time for
planning purposes. Analytical, empirical, statistical, regression or characterization methods
should be the basis where mass balance is not feasible. The main focus is on producing SIs
and IVs, which may be parts of the mathematical expressions linking the SIs and the DSIs
Activity modules. These modules will compute needs and allocation of water determined by
sectoral and environmental uses as domestic, agriculture, fisheries, etc., in terms of quantity
45
and quality. These are crucial for IWRM planning as they determine the impacts of measures
and strategies in terms of the DSIs. There are hardly any generic models available for this.
CEGIS has developed models for some economic sectors (e.g., in the KAFAM model).
Impact modules. These modules will be developed to translate changes in SIs and IVs to DSIs
of the management objectives (economic development, food security, quality of life, and
ecosystem sustainability). These modules will determine the response of the users (economic
sector) in the event they get too much (e.g., flooding, water logging), too little (drought) or
too polluted (e.g., salt, BOD) water, as well as the associated costs and damages involved.
Evaluation (DSS) module. Once the impacts on the DSIs are known, an assessment has to be
made as to what degree of changes in the WRS contribute to the management objectives. For
this purpose, a broad range of tools and techniques is available. They encompass trade-off
analysis (Hassan A. ,2002), benefit-cost analyses and multi-criteria approaches. Decision
support systems can be used to better visualize and present results of the impact assessments.
Such systems package the different models to facilitate a quick analysis and comparison of
many alternatives under different assumptions so that policy makers can take their decision.
46
STRATEGIES
OPTIONS
PROGRAMMES
Evaluation
SCENARIOS
Decision
Support
Indicators
(DSIs)
External:
- Cross border flow
o Intervention and land use
o Climate change
- Sea level change
Impact modules
Internal:
- Land use
- Economic development
- Demographic development
Economic
development
Activity modules
Sectoral
National Water
Resources System
Model
State
Indicators (SI)
Specific Process
Modules
&
Intermediate
Variables (IV)
Database
Analysis tools
Figure 4.1: Overall structure of the computational framework
Domestic
Agriculture
Livestock
Fisheries
Industry
Navigation
Forestry
Power &
Energy
Environmental
& Ecological
-
In-strearn
Terrestrial
Wetland
Mangrove
Food security
Quality of life
Ecosystem
sustainability
4.2
Design consideration
The framework has to meet several conditions, for example related hydrologic situations to be
simulated. The required time scale and spatial resolution should also meet the specifications.
Moreover, it is important to establish beforehand how the framework would deal with the stochastic
nature of the natural system processes. The following issues merit mention.
Water and land phase. The models in the framework should be able to properly link land-based
activities with the WRS. For example, changes in land use will have their impacts on the WRS and
will result in different demands, while in turn, changes in the WRS will affect the land suitability for
certain uses.
Hydrologic cycle. The model should be able to simulate the complete hydrological cycle covering
both flood and low-flow conditions. This is of particular importance for Bangladesh, as in view of the
flatness of the country drainage is relatively slow and flood water stays on land and in beels over long
periods. Such flood water has a pronounced effect on agricultural production in the dry season.
Time scale. For planning purposes, in particular when many different situations have to be analyzed,
usually a time step of a decade is taken. However, one-day time step has been recommended to
enable the coupling of hydro-dynamic river flow descriptions (Ref: Review Analytical Design &
Implementation, June 2003) and to provide sufficient information on flood state variables.. For the
space and time steps proposed, a typical planning simulation for one region of Bangladesh should take
no more than 30 minutes with the current state-of-the-art PCs.
D20
Expected damage = 0.125 * D5 + (0.350 0.125)*D20 + (0.650 0.350)* D50 +
Figure 4.2: Example of an expected damage calculation

Time series. DSIs should represent average or expected values while they often depend on highly
stochastic processes such as water levels. In particular when dealing with extreme events, such as
floods and droughts, average damages are not the same as damages in an average year. Expected or
average DSI values can be estimated through simulating long time series (a minimum of about 20 to
30 years) or analyzing changes for a few representative years with known frequency of occurrence.
48
Figure 4.2 indicates how the expected damage can be calculated from damages in these statistical
years. The selection of the years is a problem in itself, which has been solved in the past by taking
historic years assessed to represent corresponding frequency conditions for the most important
parameters (such as water levels and or rainfall). However the SI values may also be computed from
long term simulation of time series data.
Modelling approach. Two approaches may be followed in developing water resources models for
planning at national and regional levels, and for large river basins. They can be termed as the
network-based approach, and a more recent grid-based approach.
Based on a comparative study by local experts from IWFM and international experts from Delft
hydraulics, a grid-based approach is proposed to be appropriate for rainfall-runoff computation in the
NWRS. In this approach a river basin is schematized as a network of grid cells. Runoff is generated
from each cell using a hydrological model of the land phase of the hydrologic cycle and translated to
the downstream cell by routing. This approach is a distributed hydrological modelling that can
represent spatial variability in the physical characteristics of the catchment. The model seeks to
preserve the spatial variability at catchment scale but is lumped at the scale of grid cell. The lumpedconceptual model at catchment scale is not capable of representing the spatial variability. There is a
growing popularity of the grid-based approach because of the distributed models ability to assess the
effects of spatially varying impacts (e.g., land use change within the basin, water transfer, etc.) on
hydrological responses.
The decision of adopting a grid-based approach for the NWRS was taken with consensus among
WARPO, CEGIS and IWM representatives, and the IWFM study team in a meeting held on
September 11, 2003 at WARPO (Appendix D). This important decision followed a detailed
comparison of grid-based and network-based (lumped conceptual) approaches, and discussion on the
transition from present computational practices and their compatibility with future global modelling
trends.
The selection of grid cell size is made based on tests, which would be done at the beginning of the
development of the computational framework. The expert assumption is that a grid of 5 to 10 km
square cells and one-day time steps would probably be sufficient for the computation of IWRM for
the NWMP.
49
Chapter 5
Design Specification of the Computational Framework
After a thorough study of the NWMP programme, IWFM prepared the specifications of the
computational framework tools based on a review of existing models and tools as well as
recommendations by experts from Delft Hydraulics and discussions and workshops with WARPO.
The thematic view of the framework has been shown in the previous chapter (Figure 4.1). If any
adjustment is needed during the implementation, it will be done with due consultation with relevant
development partners.
5.1
National Water Resource System model (NWRS)
5.1.1
Conceptual Formulation
Purpose: The main purpose of this model would be to assess the hydraulic impacts of proposed
strategies, options and programmes for the update of the NWMP based on a simulation of the entire
WRS of Bangladesh.
NWRS structure: The core components of the NWRS module are: (1) water balance computation;
and (2) main river routing. For hydrological regions, the distributed hydrological modelling approach
by spatial discretization into square grid cells would be followed in rainfall-runoff modelling for
water balance computation. The hydrodynamic model would be used in flow routing for the main
rivers and some regional rivers. These rivers are: the Brahmaputra, the Teesta, the Ganges, the Padma,
the Old Brahmaputra, the Meghna, the Lower Meghna, the Mahananda, the Atrai, the Karatoa, the
Dhaleswari, the Lakhya, the Surma, the Kushiyara, the Gumti, the Arial khan, Gorai, the PasurSibsha, the Madhumati, the Baleswari, the Tetulia, the Karnafuli, the Sangu and the Matamuhuri.
Rainfall-runoff simulations for hydrological regions would also represent other rivers. Routing along
these rivers would be carried out by the kinematic wave method and/or dynamic method depending on
the hydraulic condition along the river. The main rivers and hydrological regions that would be
represented in the NWRS are shown in Figure 5.1. Because of the independence of hydraulic
conditions, the model can be run independently for the Chittagong region.
Boundary conditions: The time series of discharge is to be specified at locations where the main
rivers and regional rivers cross the borders of Bangladesh. The time series of water level is to be
specified at the out-falls of the main rivers and regional rivers to the Bay of Bengal. The tidal
component is to be filtered from water level data for the seaward boundary conditions. Runoff enters
Bangladesh through many trans-boundary rivers that are not shown in Figure 5.1. There should be a
provision for the cells along the Bangladesh border to account for the input of cross-border flow. To
study different scenarios, the NWRS model should be able to receive boundary condition data from
global models such as the rainfall-runoff model for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins (known
as the GBM model) and the sea level change model for the Bay of Bengal. If the time interval of the
NWRS model does not match with that of the specified discharge and water level data, or that of the
output from the global models, boundary condition data is to be interpolated using an analysis tool.
51
Design specification of the computational framework
Bay of
Figure 5.1: Main rivers, regional rivers and hydrological regions of Bangladesh
5.1.2
Discretization
Spatial discretization: The size of cells in the grid-based Water Balance Model depends on the
spatial variability of meteorological data, physical characteristics of soil, topography and land use as
well as accuracy required in runoff calculation. The size of the area of the land use category can be an
important factor for the determination of cell size. If the cell size is large, accurate representation of
country border, main river banks, hydrologic region border, catchment border and land use border
becomes difficult. On the other hand, smaller cell size requires large computational time. It needs an
exercise to determine the appropriate cell size. The average size of a thana (upazila), for which soil
characteristics data is available, is approximately 18 km X 18 km. The other important administrative
unit is the district, which has an average size of approximately 50 km X 50 km. If a comparison of
computed runoff with observed data at selected gauge stations indicates unacceptable deviations,
smaller cells can be used.
52
Discharge
Water level
Junction
Existing barrage
Figure 4.2: NWRS

schematizati
Barrage model
proposed
in NWMP on by grid-based approach.
Existing dam
Dam proposed in NWMP
Figure 5.2: NWRS model schematization by grid-based approach (10 km grid)
53
Discretization of rivers: Rivers would be represented by discretizing them into computational nodes.
The spacing of nodes should be kept in uniformity with the grid cell size. For a 10 km grid the river
will have a lateral flow point at every 10 km, enabling a lateral exchange at every grid cell, i.e.,
discharge to the river, withdrawal from the river, or overflow to the extended floodplains. In addition,
a cross-section is also preferred on every 10 km. The locations of some of the computational nodes
along rivers are dictated by the locations of water control structures and water withdrawal and
confluence points. An example of the locations of nodes in main rivers is shown in Figure 5.2. If the
larger node spacing does not give satisfactory simulation when compared with observed discharge
data at selected gauge stations, smaller node spacing should be tried.
5.1.3
Water Balance Computation
Rainfall-runoff computation: It has been mentioned earlier that a distributed hydrological model
would be used to simulate the rainfall-runoff process. It involves spatial schematization by a network
of square grid cells (Figure 5.2). Runoff is generated for each cell by a rainfall-runoff model for the
land phase of the hydrologic cycle in the cell. The model should be able to represent different land use
conditions such as rural areas, bunded agricultural lands, wetlands, homesteads and fallow lands,
urban areas, hilly areas, etc. Cell-to-cell link represents the flow direction. Having generated the cell
flows by the rainfall-runoff model, flows are routed between cells and summed to provide the total
runoff in each cell. The rainfall-runoff computation for border cells should be able to account for
inflows from India as input.
Before starting rainfall-runoff simulation, cell-to-cell flow direction is to be specified using the
Digital Elevation Model (DEM). This would form a runoff routing network of cell-to-cell links. Based
on these flow directions, the order in which the cells must be processed is determined so that the flows
from upstream cells have always been calculated before processing the cell into which they flow. The
flow direction from the centre (grid point) of a cell is determined by identifying the steepest slope to
the eight neighboring cells using the DEM. The water of the central grid cell flows towards the
steepest direction. Though a single direction is chosen for the output flowpath, the inflow to a cell can
come from multiple directions. If a cell flow drains into a river, it is treated as a lateral flow to the
river. The single direction outflow approach would not account for any change in flow direction
during flooding. Improved representation of the process would be made by allowing more than one
flow direction to be assigned to each cell. This would be done by making the flow direction dependent
on the water level difference. In that case, the cell-to-cell flow direction is to be determined at every
time step.
Cell-to-cell routing along the flow direction can be divided into two parts: one part leads to direct
runoff which is a rapid response to precipitation, while the second part leads to the baseflow
component of runoff, a much slower response to the precipitation input. Routing for the baseflow
component can be done by the linear reservoir concept, while that for the direct runoff by the
kinematic wave method, preferably by the Muskingum-Cunge method. These two runoff components
are summed to give the total runoff from the central cell.
Regional river flow computation: The flow path of a regional river would be assumed along the
common side of two adjacent cells (Figure 5.2). For flow routing in the regional rivers, the river is to
be schematized by dividing it into a number of nodes. The node spacing should not exceed 50 km.
Node spacing equal to cell size is preferred if computer time is not a constraint. Runoff from adjacent
cells is to be treated as lateral inflow to the river.
An ideal situation for flow computation for a regional river is to perform flow routing by the dynamic
method. However to reduce computer time, routing in a regional river can be divided into two parts:
the kinematic wave and the dynamic wave. The dynamic wave part will be the downstream reach that
is connected to the main river or has outfall to the sea. The length of the dynamic wave reach can be
54
selected based on the backwater effect of the main river or sea level. The remaining upstream part will
be the kinematic wave reach. The Kinematic wave method or preferably the Muskingum-Cunge
method, can be used for routing in the kinematic wave reach of a regional river. The dynamic routing
method can be used for the dynamic wave reach. The dynamic routing in a regional river is to be
performed in integration with the main river system. The cross-section of the regional river would be
represented by an equivalent section consisting of low-flow section, flood flow conveyance section
and floodplain section (Figure 5.3). The dimension of this schematized section is to be specified at the
nodes.
In the hydrological regions where a substantial amount of runoff is generated outside the country,
such as the northeast, southeast and Chittagong regions, the time series of discharge is to be specified
at the border as upstream boundary conditions for the regional rivers. In the hydrological region
where a regional river receives inflow from a main river, such as in the southwest, south-central and
north-central regions, inflow to the river can be estimated by using the weir formula. There should be
provision for de-linking of a regional river from the main river when the water level at the intake of
the regional river drops below the river bottom. The time series of tide-filtered water level is to be
specified as boundary condition at the seaward boundary of a regional river.
Flooding by river: There can be flooding of cells adjacent to the main and/or regional rivers. To
determine the area flooded by a river, water levels at computational nodes of the river are required.
The Kinematic wave method of flow routing gives only discharge, not flow depth. The Mannings
formula can be used to estimate flow depth, following which water level can be determined. The
dynamic wave method gives both discharge and water level. The cells that would be flooded can be
identified from the relative values of computed river water level and specified land elevation for a
cell.
Input-output: The principal output from the model would be runoff from specified cells. The time
series of rainfall and evapo-transpiration is to be specified at every cell. Maximum and minimum
temperatures, humidity, sunshine hours, wind speed, crop index and ground elevation data would be
required to compute evapo-transpiration.
Interpolation would be necessary to specify rainfall and evapo-transpiration at every cell using such
data from gauge stations. Land use type, surface storage, infiltration capacity, maximum and field
capacities of soil storage, aquifer storage constant, and land elevation would be required for every
cell. Routing parameters and roughness coefficient for every cell-to-cell link as well as for every node
of a regional river would be required. The time series of cross-border discharge would be required for
some regional rivers in the northeast, southeast and Chittagong regions while the tide-filtered water
level series at seaward boundary would be required in the southwest, south-central and Chittagong
regions. Data on trans-boundary flow of the rivers other than regional and main rivers would be
required to specify cross-border flow to the cells along the Bangladesh borders. Cross-sectional
dimensions for the regional rivers would be required at computational nodes along the rivers.
These physical characteristics data are to be input from the NWRD through data processing. The
model should also be able to receive hydraulic intervention data such as application of irrigation
water, withdrawal from regional rivers, withdrawal from surface storage, withdrawal from ground
water storage and change in land use.
5.1.4
Main River Routing
Flow routing: The purpose of this model is to compute water level, velocity and discharge along
main rivers and appropriate regional river reaches (dynamic wave reaches) by performing dynamic
routing. The governing equations are the mass balance equation and the momentum equation for
gradually varied flow. The cross-section of the river would be represented by an equivalent section
consisting of low-flow section, flood flow conveyance section and floodplain section (Figure 5.3).
55
The dimension of this schematized section is to be specified at the nodes. When depth of flow on a
storage section becomes substantial, part of the storage section acts as a flow carrying section.
Provision should be made for accounting for contributions of the floodplain section to the conveyance
of flood flow and of the low-flow storage section to the conveyance of low-flow. This additional
conveyance area can be estimated as a function of resistance coefficients and flow depths.
Floodplain sections
Principal flood flow

conveyance section
Principal low flow
conveyance section
Figure 5.3: Schematic cross-section of the regional river.
The model should be able to perform routing in the inter-connected river network. It should also be
able to account for the lateral inflow due to runoff and return flow from adjacent cells of the Water
Balance Model. Outflow to a regional river should be accounted for as discussed earlier. For
improved representation of the flow process, lateral outflow to adjacent cells due to lower ground
water level can be incorporated. The model should be able to represent the following hydraulic
interventions: internal boundary conditions at barrage and other water control structures, diversion of
flow by barrage, abstraction by pumps, storage by hydro-electric power dams, flood control
embankment and outflow through embankment breaches.
Input-output: The principal output from this model would be water level, velocity and discharge at
given locations along the river. Cross-sectional dimensions and resistance parameters for the rivers
would be required at computational nodes along the river. The time series of discharge would be
required at the cross-border boundaries of main rivers while tide-filtered water level series would be
required at the seaward boundary. These physical characteristics data are to be input from the NWRD
through data processing. The model should also be able to receive hydraulic intervention data on
embankment, pumps, barrage, dams and other water control structures.
5.1.5
Salinity Intrusion Module
Requirements: This module should be able to compute (1) maximum intrusion of saline front; (2)
maximum salinity value at a location (3) duration of salinity value above some critical level (4)
effects of interventions.
Theoretical basis: For the tidally varying salinity module, the advection-dispersion salt balance
equation has to be solved numerically. This model should preferably be coupled with a full
hydrodynamic model. Alternative to this is the one dimensional High Water Slack salt balance
equation which describes the maximum salinity during a tidal cycle and frees the solution technique
from variation in salinity within the tidal cycle. Based on this, an analytical or empirical solution can
be developed to compute salt concentration and its intrusion length with or without different
56
interventions. Similar rapid assessment model for salt intrusion has been developed by CEGIS with
the cooperation from IHE can be used for this purpose.
Input-output: Input to this module is the discharge that should come from the NWRS. Other input
are cross sectional area, salinity at the estuary mouth, tidal period, and tidal velocity amplitude at the
estuary mouth that should come from the NWRD through processing. Output from the model will be
maximum salinity at a certain distance from the estuary mouth, salinity intrusion length and duration
of salinity value above some critical level.
5.1.6
Urban Rainfall-runoff and Water Quality Module
Requirements: The purpose of this module is to represent the overall drainage and flooding
conditions in urban catchments, water quality in catchments and sewer outfalls, and pollutant hot
spots around major urban areas. The module should be also able to represent interventions such as
drainage by pumping and control structures such as weirs. This module should specifically address the
urban hydrologic characteristics since urban catchments are significantly different from rural
catchments. However, for planning and management purposes, representation of the flooding and
drainage conditions is more important than detailed representation of the sewer system and overland
flow within the catchments.
Theoretical basis: This module should be able to represent land phase of the hydrologic cycle in
urban catchments based on mass balance and flow routing. Considering the requirements the MOUSE
can be considered for this purpose.
Input-output: The main input for this model includes meteorological, land use, and topographic data.
Output from this module will be processed by the Utility Tools to generate SIs that represent peak
flood, submerged conditions, change in water level, and water quality at the catchment outfalls.
5.1.7
Rural Waste Assimilation Module
Requirements: The model should satisfy the mass balance equation with flow-weighted average of
the pollutant concentrations in rural catchments. In general terms, the change in pollutant loading over
a time step should consider the inflow and outflow, pollutant load input and output, and pollutant load
modification such as decay and reaeration. Pollutant load modification and transformation should be
accounted for depending on the constituent type and other variables. Specifically, the module should
be able to represent the following:
Nonpoint-source pollution of rivers and stagnant waters by surface runoff from agricultural
and urban land;
Nonpoint-source pollution of ground water by leaching of agricultural inputs and fecal
wastes;
Pollution of surface water by domestic and industrial wastes;
Pollutant load modification.
Theoretical basis: The average concentration of a constituent over a time step in a planning unit (cell
or lumped catchments) can be determined from constituent concentration and volume of all inflow to
and outflow from the unit. A constituent-specific load modification factor may be introduced to
estimate the changes in constituent loading by processes that include dispersion, decay, reaeration and
root zone abstraction. However, detailed study is required to determine the practically usable values
of these proposed space and time dependent factors. Bacterial self purification or decrease of
bacterial population is a function of flow time, and can be predicted by the simple exponential
relationship given by Phelps (1944). Salinity and arsenic concentration in ground water is to be
represented based on a mass balance approach rather than flow dynamics.
Most agricultural input applied to dry season crop are likely to be removed from the field either by
plant uptake or by leaching of the irrigation water, leaving an insignificant residue for wet season
57
wash-off. The fraction of load reaching the ground water will depend on the recharged water volume
and processes represented in the NWRS model.
Recommended study: Considering the compatibility requirement of the NWRS model, including one
of the primary aims of the computational framework simplicity of the planning tools, it is
recommended that a grid-based module be developed following the theoretical basis outlined herein.
Input-output: The main input to this module is the calculated flow volumes entering and leaving the
planning unit. An estimate of the infiltration and recharge, provided by the NWRS model, is required
to compute the amount of pollutant leaching to the ground water. Baseline water quality and external
input load data are also required. External pollutant load input is contributed by agricultural, urban,
domestic and industrial sources. These loads can be estimated from the amount of agricultural input
applied per unit area, per capita waste generation, and specified or estimated industrial effluent
quantity and quality. While some of these loads can be estimated by simple calculations (e.g., nitrate
input from agricultural land), the estimation of other pollutant loads will require further study. The
outputs of this module are: selected pollutant concentrations (including TSS, nitrate, phosphate), BOD
and coliform population in rivers and stagnant waters. Other output includes quality of water leaching
to the ground water.
5.1.8
Ground water Quality Module
Requirements: This module should be able to represent whether the ground water quality is adequate
for human consumption. This module should be able to represent ground water contamination by
input from agricultural land, arsenic, salinity, and other pollutants including iron.
Theoretical basis: A grid (cell)-based module that satisfies the mass balance equation should be used.
Input-output: The main input to this module includes water flow (volume) from the NWRS model,
pollutant input loads from the Rural Waste Assimilation Module, and baseline quality data from the
NWRD and other sources. The output is the resultant ground water quality in terms of concentration
of selected constituents.
5.2
Specific Process Modules
As mentioned earlier the Specific Process modules would receive input from the NWRS model and
the Database and Analysis tools, or direct input from other sources and will produce SIs and IVs.
5.2.1
Morphological Module
Requirements: This module should be able to compute (1) sediment concentration; (2) river bed
aggradation/degradation; (3) change in river width; and (4) floodplain sedimentation.
Recommended study: IWM has the MIKE modeling series for morphological modeling (MIKE 11
ST and MIKE 21 ST). These models are basically numerical models and have to solve number of
equations simultaneously. Computational times are high and results are best suited for project level
study. The conceptual process based module available at CEGIS is promising enough to be used as a
planning tool, but it needs to be further tested and validated as mentioned earlier. Furthermore, the
module should be made compatible with the overall structure of the NWRS model, so that it can be
used in an integrated way. Along with these, other empirical, semi-empirical and analytical modules
have to be studied and tested with the field data to compute channel bed level, channel width and
sediment concentration that should be able to incorporate interventions like water abstraction,
construction of barrage, flow augmentation and river training works. The module should be able to
receive input from the NWRS. A simple method is recommended which should be able to relate
morphological changes with the variation of discharge and water level. A similar approach can be
taken to compute floodplain sedimentation.
58
5.2.2
Tidal Propagation Module
Requirements: The tidal module should be able to compute (1) maximum and minimum tidal level;
(2) tidal range; (3) tidal velocity; (4) tidal excursion; (5) tidal prism; and (6) effect of interventions
due to upstream withdrawal or upstream flow augmentation.
Theoretical basis: The tidal motion in a channel is governed by two fundamental laws of physics, the
conservation of mass and momentum. In order to solve these equations, numerical techniques should
normally be applied. On the other hand, many analytical solutions of the basic governing equations
are available which simplifies the basic equations in many different ways. Most of the analytical
solutions assume that convective acceleration is negligible. The assumptions made in these analytical
solutions are (1) the estuary has a rectangular section with slowly varying width; (2) freshwater flow
into the estuary is negligible; and (3) the ocean tide can be regarded as simple harmonic. Considering
theoretical basis, requirement and available methods, MIKE 11 HD model could be considered for
this purpose.
Input-output: Time series discharge data at the upstream boundary and tidal water level data at the
downstream boundary are required. Cross sectional data at selected node points are also required.
Such data has to be obtained from the NWRD. The output should be tidal water level, velocity and
discharge. The output should be processed to obtain maximum and minimum tidal level, tidal range,
tidal excursion and tidal prism.
Computational time interval: Preferably 15 minutes.
5.2.3
Sediment Transport Module
Requirements: This module should be able to compute the sediment transport rate in a river. It is
required to compute (1) bed load transport; (2) suspended load transport; and (3) total load transport.
None of the available model is tested to be used as planning tool. A new sediment transport
computation tool is to be developed.
5.2.4
Reservoir Sedimentation Module
Requirements: This module should be able to compute sedimentation in haors and reservoirs created
by dams mainly for hydro-electric projects.
Available modules: No module is available in Bangladesh for this specific purpose.
Recommended study: Numerical, analytical and empirical modules are available in literature for
reservoir sedimentation. The module should preferably be an analytical or empirical one that should
be able to compute reservoir sedimentation when discharge and water level vary. The module should
also be able to receive input from the NWRS. The empirical module might also need some parameter
adjustments and should be able to incorporate effects of interventions like barrage construction.
5.3
Global Boundary Condition Model
This model will generate scenario-dependent trans-boundary hydraulic conditions for the NWRS
model. A rainfall-runoff model for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basins will provide the
discharge boundary conditions for the main rivers. The sea level model for the Bay of Bengal will
provide the downstream water level boundary condition at the out-falls of the rivers to the Bay of
Bengal.
59
5.3.1
Rainfall-runoff Model for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basins
The main purpose of the rainfall-runoff model for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins is to
generate cross border discharge data (boundary conditions) for the main rivers of the NWRS model. It
should be a global scale model since the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins occupy a very large
area of approximately 1.74 million sq.km. A grid-based water balance model that can perform
seasonal and year-to-year variability in the surface water flows in a large river basin is suitable for this
purpose. It should be able to represent spatial variability in both surface and ground water availability
and water demands. It should be able to consider socio-economic factors such as population growth,
urbanisation and economic development including climate change that may affect water demand as
well as water availability.
The grid-based Water Balance Model is based on a distributed hydrological model by lumped
representation of the land phase of the hydrologic cycle for each cell that includes: (1) precipitation,
(2) evapo-transpiration, (3) snowmelt, (4) surface storage, (5) soil storage, (6) deep percolation to
ground water, (7) surface runoff, (8) base flow, and (9) major rivers. Surface runoff is generated for
each grid-cell using the rainfall-runoff model and the flows are routed through the linked cells to
estimate the total runoff for each. The model should be able to represent effects of forests, lakes,
wetlands and return flows, and represent various climatic regions such as arid, semi-arid and humid as
well as mountainous and deltaic regions. It should be able to incorporate the following interventions:
(i) land use change, (ii) irrigation by surface and ground water abstraction, (iii) storage of water by
reservoir, (iv) diversion barrage, (v) inter-basin water transfer and (vi) inter-river water transfer within
the basin.
The spatial resolution of grid-cells depends on the accuracy of representation of the spatial variability
in the physical characteristics of the basins and the availability of suitable data. There is inadequate
information on data availability at this stage of the study. A 0.50 by 0.50 grid (approximately 50 km by
50 km) can be considered to represent spatial variability. The study of regional water resources
planning in Bangladesh is generally based on a 10 days interval. The water sharing formula in the
Ganges Water Treaty is also based on a 10 days interval. Thus a maximum limit of 10 days can be set
for the computational time step of the rainfall-runoff model. However, a 1-day time step is preferred
to match with the time step of the NWRS. The model should be able to receive input from a global or
regional climate change model.
5.3.2
Sea Level Model for the Bay of Bengal
The Sea Level Model for the Bay of Bengal will provide the downstream water level boundary
conditions at the out-falls of the rivers. For this purpose, two kinds of models will be required. These
models will compute (1) seasonal sea level variations; and (2) long-term sea level variations.
Seasonal sea level variation: The seasonal sea level variation model will compute sea level due to
monsoon wind set-up. A detailed numerical model has already been developed and applied in the Bay
of Bengal for this purpose (Haque et al., 2002). From that model, sea level rise due to different
monsoon wind speed has been computed along the coast of Bangladesh. It will be possible to develop
an empirical formula based on this model result. This empirical formula can be used as a seasonal sea
level variation model.
Long-term sea level variation: Long-term sea level variation may occur due to long-term
temperature change and land subsidence. IPCC has already predicted different scenarios that consider
both long-term temperature change and land subsidence to predict possible sea level rise (WB, 2000).
These results can directly be used as input to the NWRS.
60
5.4
Analysis Tools
5.4.1
Flood Flow and Low Flow
This tool should be able to compute (1) peak discharge; (2) minimum discharge; (3) peak level; (4)
minimum level; (5) peak volume (storage); (6) minimum volume (storage); and (7) duration above or
below critical level or critical discharge or critical storage. The module should be inter-linked with the
NWRS. Peak and minimum values will be selected from the computed values. The duration above or
below certain values will be calculated based on the time series output of the NWRS.
5.4.2
Inundation
This tool should be interlinked with the NWRS. It should use DEM and GIS and should be able to
compute (1) elevation for a given storage; (2) flooded area for a given elevation; and (3)
representative inundation depth for a given storage. Area-elevation data and storage-elevation data
can be used for this purpose.
5.4.3
Rating Curve
This tool will generate the rating curve for a specified location using generated water level and
discharge from the NWRS. The tool should be able to transform water level into depth of flow.
5.4.4
Area Elevation Curve
This tool will contain information of water surface area for a particular elevation. Area-elevation
relationship will be developed using DEM-GIS. The relationship will be used to compute flooded /
inundated area for a given elevation. The tool should be interlinked with the NWRS.
5.4.5
Volume Elevation Curve
This tool will contain information on elevation for a particular volume. Volume-elevation relationship
will be developed using the DEM. The relationship will be used to compute flood level for a given
volume. This tool should be interlinked with NWRS.
5.4.6
Seasonal Flow Volume
This tool will compute the volume of surface water stored in the floodplains and wetlands at the start
of the dry season. It will also compute the volume of surface storage for any other given time. The
module will be inter-linked with the NWRS.
5.4.7
Backwater
This tool should be able to compute (1) backwater created on the river by barrages/dams; (2)
backwater created by the river on its tributaries and wetlands; and (3) backwater created by sea level.
The backwater effect will be computed with depth data at the intervention by using standard
procedures.
61
Chapter 6
The Architectural Design of the Computational Framework
Based on the specification of models/modules prepared by BUET-IWFM (Ref: Technical Report 2,
Oct 2003), the architectural design of the computational framework was furnished during a three
weeks mission (23 Sept- 17 Oct 2003) by Dr. Peter Gijsbers, IT expert, of Delft Hydraulics with
assistance from CEGIS professionals, WARPO and IWFM. Although WARPO and IWFM have
agreed on the initial design, it might require further refinement during the implementation period.
6.1
The Conceptual Model
Spatial model representation: Within the NWRS model, a difference is made between the main
rivers and the regional water systems including floodplains. The main rivers, and to some extent
regional rivers, are represented in a hydrodynamic network model, referred to as MRM
(MainRiverModel) The regional water systems and floodplains are represented in a 2D-grid based
Water Balance Model, referred to as WBM (WaterBalanceModel). Figure 6.1 illustrates the approach
adopted.
Q from GBM model
Sediment
Pollution
Industry
Salinity
WL from Bay of Bengal model
Figure 6.1 Spatial representation of the water resources system

The upstream boundary, an inflow, is provided by the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna model, while the
downstream boundary, the sea level, is prepared using the Bay of Bengal Model.
As limited computation time is a major requirement, the models will initially be based on a coarse
grid with 1010 km cells3. To obtain a reasonable representation of land use, it is assumed that each
A 55 km grid would result in a fourfold amount of grid cells, and thus a fourfold computation time
63
The architectural design of the computational framework
cell will be able to represent various types of land use. However, a smaller grid size improves the
reflection of the bunds and levees in the local drainage network. While developing the model
algorithms it should be tested whether the computation performance of a less coarse grid would be
acceptable.
As can be seen in the figure, the river will have a lateral flow point at every 10 km, enabling at every
grid cell a lateral exchange, i.e., discharge into the river, withdrawal from the river, or overflow to the
extended floodplains. In addition, a cross-section is also preferred on every 10 km.
Flows also carry sediment, polluted substances and salinity. Sediment will only be accounted for in
the river. Pollution and salinity will be accounted for in the river as well as in the regional water
systems, including ground water.
Infiltration
Precipitation
Abstraction
Irrigation
Domestic
Industries
etc..
from GW
Abstraction
Irrigation
Domestic
Industries
etc..
From water bodies
abstraction
Runoff
overflow
Drainage
Cap.Rise
Root zone
Percolation
Evapotranspiration
Flow representation: Figure 6.2 provides a simplified overview of the essential flows between the
floodplains and the river. During the development of the WBM, the exact type of flows and storage
compartments should be determined.
drainage
Base flow
River
Cell
Figure 6.2: Illustration of relevant flows in the system

The Water Balance Model developed by CEGIS for the southwest region is a good starting point for
further improvement of the computational model.
Relevant exchange processes between the river and the floodplains/regional water system are
withdrawal from the river, discharge into the river in various flow types (e.g., surface run-off,
drainage, base flow) and overland-flow from the river.
To represent such a system at its best, an implicit coupling, accounting for both mass and momentum
conservation, would be desired between the 1D-river and the 2D-floodplains. However, as such
coupling is expected to be computation intensive, a more straightforward (explicit) coupling will be
applied. Every time step, the WBM and the MRM will update their boundaries with respect to water
level and exchange flow.
6.2
The architecture
Within the design of the computational framework various issues need to be tackled. This section
addresses the main issues on the software architecture with focus on the data flow and the engines
underlying the different computation tasks. Analysing the flow of data is essential as each bit of data
has to come from somewhere and each transformation has to be done by some piece of software.
64
Within the architectural design no attention is paid to the internal content of software components
(e.g., algorithms) unless they affect the exchange of data between the different components. As a
result of this focus, the list of inputs and outputs may not be complete as different algorithms might
need different datasets. However, the essentials with respect to the data flow in the entire
computational framework will be captured appropriately. Overall framework is shown in Figure 6.3.
Essential with respect to data flow is the notion of difference in data types being used. There is a
distinction between data that varies over space and time, data that varies over space only and data that
varies neither over space nor time. However, the core modules of the system, i.e., the Water Balance
Module and the hydrodynamic Main River Model (river flow routing) apply different spatial
representations, namely a 2D-grid (square cells) and a 1D-network. Therefore, a distinction is made
between grid-based data and network based data. This distinction is reflected in the shade/colour
(colour in colour print/screen) of the data set symbols (blue/dark for the grid, yellow/light for the
network). Figure 6.3 illustrates the types identified as well as the symbols used throughout this report.
Arrows preceded by a number indicate the data source or cluster providing the data. Arrows followed
by a number indicate the destination of data. Intermediate Variables are indicated by IV and State
Indicators by SI.
DSS-GUI
Scenario
selections
Strategy
selections
7. Evaluation
DSIs
Conditions
1. Global
Conditions
6. Impact
Activities
2.Land use,
Econ.,
Demogr.
Developm.
5A.Allocation
5B. Sectoral
5C. Environmental
3. NWRS
(flow+WQ)
Grid
Time series
on a grid
Single data
set on a grid
SI
Network
Spatial
temporal
Spatial
Time series
on a network
Single data
set on a
network
4. Specific processing
Other
Spatial
temporal
Spatia
Non-referenced
data (e.g.,
table)
Combination
of grid and
network
Figure 6.3 Overall architecture of computational framework

65
Nonreferenced
Within the grid, a distinction can be made between scalars, nominal data (e.g., non-ordered
classifications), ordinal data (e.g., ordered classifications), directional, Boolean and local drainage
direction.
6.3
Data flow
The clusters as shown in Figure 6.3 are discussed in the following sections.
6.3.1
Global Conditions
The Global Conditions cluster addresses the boundary conditions imposed on the water resources
system of Bangladesh. It provides two main data sets to the NWRS (see Figure 6.4):
The upstream boundary (inflows in the NWRS)
The downstream boundary (sea level rise and seasonal variation).

Both conditions depend on the scenarios for climate change, while the cross-border inflow also
depends on the land use and inter-basin transfers of water in Nepal, China and India.
Scenario
(selection)
DB SystemData
DEM
Soil
DB ExternalBasinScenario
LandUse
InterBasinTransfers
DB ClimateScenario
GBM Model
(DB ) CrossborderInflows
Bay of Bengal model
Meteorology 3
SeaLevelRise
SeasonalSeaLevelVariation
(DB )DownstreamWaterLevel
SeaLevelRise
SeasonalVariation
computation is needed
computation is optional, DB could be prepared beforehand
Figure 6.4 Global Conditions - data flow

Both sets of boundary conditions can be prepared beforehand using the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna
model (GBM model) for the upstream inflows and the Bay of Bengal model (BoB model) for the
downstream sea level conditions. The boundary conditions can be made available to the DSS
environment by means of two databases. The output of the grid-based GBM model will need to
become available as a time series for the network based Hydrodynamic model. The output of the gridbased BoB model and any associated algorithms will need to become available as a grid based time
series to the Water Balance Model and as a node based time series to the Hydrodynamic model.
6.3.2
Land use, economic and demographic development
The Land Use, Economic and Demographic Development cluster provides the socio-economic
projections put on the water resources of Bangladesh. The cluster generates the following data sets
(see Figure 6.5):
66
A land use projection (for NWRS and activity assessment)

Pollution loads (for NWRS)
A demand projection (for activity assessment)
Forced withdrawals (for NWRS)
Strategy
(selection)
Scenario
(selection)
DB CurrentStatus
CurrentLandUse
CurrentInfrastructure
CurrentPopulation
CurrentEconomicSectors
DB GrowthScenarios
PopulationGrowth
EconomicSectorGrowth
DB Strategy
LandZoning
NewInfrastructure
DB Strategy
Technologies
Incentives
WithdrawalRules
LandUseProjectionModule
Sectoral projections
ProjectedLandUse (IV)
3, 5AC, DSS
agriculture
heavy industry
Pollution (IV)
3, DSS
Point-source loads
Non-point-source loads
domestic
livestock
light industry
ProjectedDemand (IV)
5AC, DSS
Withdrawal
ReqQualityClass
ReqSalinityClass
ExpectedWithdrawal 3
LateralWithdrawal
LateralDischarge
PercWithdrawalFromGW
PercWithdrawalFromSW
PercConsumed
Figure 6.5: Land Use, Demographic and Economic Development - data flow
The datasets need to be computed within the DSS, as the selection of strategy (e.g., flood protection
works) may have a big impact on future land use. The projected land use determines where the
various demands (withdrawal and in-stream) for water will arise and what locations will become
hotspots for the generation of various types of pollution. The intensity of land use by a particular
sector, in combination with infrastructure investments, incentives and technologies will primarily
affect the magnitude of the demands and loads imposed on the water resources system.
With respect to the natural processes, the projected land use affects rainfall-runoff processes as well
as the waste assimilation processes (both part of the NWRS). Land use and its associated demand for
water are also needed during the benefit-damage assessment. A module is incorporated which
computes the evolution of land use over time based on the attractiveness of the area for various
sectors. Such a module will require a set of nation-wide growth scenarios, as well as infrastructure
programmes and land zoning policies as input.
An interesting output of this cluster is the so-called Expected Withdrawal. This concept has been
introduced, as it is desirable to reflect the status of the national water resources system as well as
possible without making iterations to balance water demand and water availability. As these iterations
would affect both the hydrodynamic river model as well as the Water Balance Model, the
computations would become too complex and time consuming for the DSS.
By incorporating an expected withdrawal, the flow pattern of the river and the regional waters will be
more likely to occur during the dry season compared to a run which does not account for abstractions.
The Expected Withdrawal will be based on a combination of the ProjectedDemand with general
decision rules on withdrawal portions from various types of resources.
67
With respect to pollution, the load of selected substances needs to be computed for each sector. A
straightforward UnitLoad-module can be used, accounting for the size of the activity as well as the
technology applied (via the unit load-coefficient). A similar multiplier type of module, i.e., a
UnitWaterUse-module, can be applied to project water demand. Only agriculture might require
another type of computation.
Most data sets provide input to the grid based Water Balance Model. The only exception is the time
series of withdrawals along the main rivers. Most input is spatial oriented by nature and reflected in a
grid.
6.3.3
National Water Resources System (NWRS)
As mentioned in Chapter 4, the NWRS is the core of the computational framework. It computes the
basic physical and chemical status of the nation-wide water system, most of them being SIs.
The NWRS generates the following data sets (see Figure 6.6)):
Flows
Volumes
Water levels
Salinity concentration
Concentration of selected substances (BOD, TSS, pH, temperature, Nitrate,

Phosphate, e-coli)
The NWRS is composed of various modules, namely:
The Main River Model (MRM), a network based hydrodynamic model
The Water Balance Model (WBM), grid-based mass balance model
The River Salinity Intrusion model, a network based advection-diffusion model
The River Water Quality model, network based transport and process model
The Rural Water Quality model, grid-based simple process model for waste
assimilation in the rural area and small towns
The GroundWaterQuality module, a grid based proxy-model or database
The Rural Salinity Module, proxy-model or look-up table

Main River Model
(1st in run)
RiverSaltinityIntrusion
DB Initial
Conditions
2 LateralLink (Q,H)
LateralFlow
WaterLevels WBM
2
RiverWQ
ExpectedWithdrawal
LateralWithdrawal
RuralWQ
GroundWaterQuality
(run after WBM,
before, RiverWQ)
Water Balance Model

(1st in run)
.
Figure 6.6: National Water Resources System data flow overview
68
The Main River Model and Water Balance Model will run first to compute the water movement.
Based on this output, either the water quality computation or the salinity computation can start. For
water quality, the Rural Water Quality Model will first compute the waste assimilation processes, as it
has to provide the non-point source loads to the River Water Quality Model. For salinity, the intrusion
via the river will be input to the Rural Salinity Proxy-Model
The Main River Model (MRM): The MRM is a hydrodynamic model computing flows, volumes
and water levels in the river network using a balance of mass and momentum. The network of the
MRM represents the main rivers and major regional rivers. The MRM receives cross-border inflows
as a boundary condition and accounts for lateral withdrawals based on the expected withdrawal data.
Throughout the network, the MRM receives lateral discharges at every time step as computed (in the
previous time step) by the Water Balance Model.
A strategy may contain programmes that intervene in the river geometry. This will be accounted for
by preparing a set of river schematizations, each of them reflecting one or a combination of river
intervention programmes.
The details of the MRM related data flow are provided in Figure 6.7.
Strategy
(selection)
DB Schematization
Network layout
Infrastructure
Cross sections
Boundary Conditions
1.
Sea level rise
1. Cross-boundary Inflows
DB Rainfall/evaporation
MainRiver
Model
(1st in run)
River
Depths (SI) 5B, DSS
WaterLevels (SI) 5B, DSS
Volume (SI) DSS
Flows (SI) 4,5B, DSS
DB Initial
Conditions
Scenario
(selection)
ExpectedWithdrawal
LateralWithdrawal
2 LateralLink (Q,H)
LateralFlow
WaterLevels WBM
Water Balance Model

(1st in run)
Figure 6.7: Main River Model - data flow details

The Water Balance Model (WBM): The WBM computes various flows and volumes in the gridcells of the floodplains and regional water systems using a mass balance only. Flow routing is
accounted for using a linear reservoir approach. The WBM compromises various storage
compartments to reflect surface storage, unsaturated zone storage and saturated zone storage.
In the dry period, the WBM receives withdrawals from the river, as indicated by the Expected
Withdrawal data4. In the wet period, river water might enter the model as soon as the water level in
the river overtops the surface water level computed autonomously in the grid-cell.
In the wet period ExpectedWithdrawal data will be incorporated as well, but the values are likely to be
zero
69
A strategy may contain programmes that intervene in the geometry of local channels (affecting
drainage conveyance capacity) or they might block flow paths in the natural drainage network. This
will be accounted for by preparing appropriate datasets for local drainage networks with associated
capacities, each of them reflecting one or a combination of relevant interventions.
The details of the data sets associated to the WBM are provided in Figure 6.8.
Note that some data sets, especially the boundary conditions such as meteorology, need to be
synchronised with the MRM.
Scenario
(selection)
Strategy
(selection)
MainRiverModel
DB Initial
Conditions
DB
Meteorology
Rainfall
RefEvapotranspiration
(1st in run)
ExpectedWithdrawal
WithdrawalFromGW
WithdrawalFromSW
PercConsumed
2 LateralLink (Q,H)
LateralFlow
WaterLevels WBM
DB DEM + DrainageCapacity
DrainageNetwork
ElevationLevel
DrainageConveyanceCapacity
DB SoilConditions
SoilMoistureCapacity
BaseflowRoutingCoeff.
AquiferCoefficients
Water Balance Model

(1st in run)
Cell
Volumes (SI) 4,5AC, DSS
WaterLevels (SI) 4,5C,DSS
Flows (SI) 4, 5C,DSS
SoilMoisture (SI) 4,DSS
2 ProjectedLandUse
(pointers to land cover class)
DB LandCover
InfiltrationRate
Cropfactor
InterceptionRate (?)
QuickRunoffCoefficients
SurfaceStorageCapacity
Figure 6.8: Water Balance Model - data flow details

Interaction between MRM & WBM: To reflect the interaction between the river and the floodplains
and regional waters, the MainRiverModel and RegionalWaterBalanceModel run in parallel,
exchanging data at each time step. A forward (explicit) linkage will be established, in which the data
exchanged at time step t will be used by the engines at time step t+1.
The exchange data sets are composed of:
LateralFlow (both ways,
Waterlevels (from MRM
, provided on the network)

WBM, provided on the grid)
Salinity: After the water movement and water balance status has been computed, the resulting salinity
intrusion on selected locations along the river can be computed. This computation will take place by a
standard available add-on module to the River Hydrodynamics Model. A proxy model e.g., multivariate relation, or a look-up table will be applied to estimate the soil salinity in the cells based on the
salinity concentration in the river as well as other parameters (e.g., distance to river etc.). Dependent
on future research, relations might be included for salinity intrusion via ground water. The details of
the data sets associated to the salinity intrusion model are provided in Figure 6.9.
70
River
Volumes (SI)
Flows (SI)
MainRiverModel
River
SalinityConc. (SI)
4,DSS
River
SalinityIntrusion
Rural
SalinityIntrusion
(SW+GW)
Proxy-model or look-up table
Cell
SalinityClass (SI) 4,DSS
Figure 6.9: Salinity intrusion - data flow details

Water quality and waste assimilation: Similar to salinity, the waste accumulation and water quality
computation can be performed after the water movement and water balance status has been computed.
First, the water quality status in the regional waters and floodplains is computed, as they discharge the
water and associated pollution into the river. In order to prevent too much complexity in the models
and their linkages, the entrance of pollutions from the river into the regional waters and floodplains is
neglected for the near future
Both the river water quality module and the regional waste assimilation module generate
concentrations of TSS, pH, temperature, BOD, Nitrate, phosphate, e-coli. As the arsenic substance in
the ground water is the natural background level, this type of data is provided directly from a
database.
The details of the data sets associated to the water quality models are provided in Figure 6.10. As the
data is generated as concentrations, the withdrawal flows are required to compute the mass balance.
2
PointSource
Pollution
Loads
MRM River
Volume (SI)
Flows (SI)
Initial
Concentrations
River
Concentrations
(SI) 4,DSS
RiverWQ
LateralLoad
substance mass
WBM Cell
Volumes (SI)
Flows (SI)
Cell
Concentrations
(SI) 4,DSS
RuralWQ
(run before RiverWQ)
2
InitialConcentrations
2
DB
Non-PointSource
Pollution
Loads
ProjectedLandUse
WasteAssimilation
(coefficients)
Figure 6.10: Water quality and waste assimilation - data flow details
71
DB GroundWater
Concentrations
(SI) 4,DSS
6.3.4
Specific processing
The NWRS delivers the basic data sets, which are used throughout the remainder of the CF to
generate the DSIs. While the NWRS directly generates some state indicators (i.e., the indicators for
Waste Assimilation), most data sets require some additional processing to become State Indicators. A
collection of so-called Specific Processing Tools is foreseen to turn the basic spatial time series into
aggregated SIs and IVs.
While the water quality data generated directly provides the desired SIs, some high level
characterization into Intermediate Variables is foreseen. In addition, a classification mechanism will
be applied, both with respect to water quality and salinity, to account for the suitability of the resource
in the allocation module. Figure 6.11 illustrates the data flows associated with the two
characterization modules.
Figure 6.12 illustrates the various modules introduced to turn the flow and volume related data sets
into appropriate SIs. The water resources characterization requires both cells as river data. The
Morphological Module is expected to be a proxy (or repro) or a pre-compute database. It contains the
knowledge and relations abstracted from an extensive amount of detailed model simulations e.g.,
using the current simulation models available at the Institute of Water Modelling.
Cell
Concentrations (SI)
(BOD,TSS, pH,
temp, N,P,E-coli)
River
Concentrations (SI)
(BOD,TSS, pH,
temp, N,P, E-coli)
Cell
WQclasses (IV)
WQ
Characterization
Module
5A,DSS
WQ characteristics (IV)
5C,DSS
Min./ Max.
SeasonalVariablility
River
WQclasses (IV) DSS
SalinityControl
(SalinityRegime characteristics,SI)
5BC, 6,DSS
Salinity
Characterization
Module
3 River
SalinityConc. (SI)
River
SalinityClasses (IV) DSS
Figure 6.11: Specific tools for aggregating salinity and water quality/waste assimilation results
Cell
3 Flows
3 Volumes
3 WaterLevels
3 SoilMoisture
3.
WaterResources
Characterization
Module
RiverDepth
3.
Strategy
(selection)
RiverFlows
WaterRetentionAndProduction
(resources characteristics, SI) 5ABC,6,DSS
Flow
Characterization
Module
FloodRegulationAndDrainage
(flow regime charact, SI) 5ABC,6,DSS
SedimentTransportAndRetention
(MorphologicalRegime
characteristics,SIs) 5C,6,DSS
Morphological
Proxy
Module
Proxy-model capturing SedimentTransport, Morphology, ReservoirSedimentation

Prepared based on computations with external Hydrodynamic model with added modules
Figure 6.12: Specific tools for aggregating water resources, flood and drainage features and
assessment of sediment transport and morphological behaviour
72
Figure 6.13 addresses the GIS-based tool for Flood Mapping, using the computed surface storage
volumes, the detailed DEM (300 m 300 m) and possibly curves such as area-elevation and/or
volume-elevation curves.
Figure 6.13 also illustrates the Tide And Storm Surge Module. Similar to the Morphological Proxy
Module, this module will be a proxy-model or pre-compute database. It contains the knowledge and
relations abstracted from an extensive amount of detailed model simulations e.g., using the current
simulation models available at IWM. As indicated in the figure, this module should be able to
account directly for the strategy selection, as it may involve programmes in the main rivers.
3.
RiverVolume
3.
CellVolume
Flood
Mapping
DB DEM
various curves
InundationMaps (IV) DSS
TideAndStormSurge
Proxy
Module
Strategy
(selection)
3
TideAndStormSurgeRegulation
(characteristics,SIs) 5B,6,DSS
RiverFlows
Proxy-model capturing Tidal processes and storm surge

propagation
Prepared based on computations by external hydrodynamic
model with added modules.
Other option might be to incoroporate the add-on modules in
the MainRiverModel and run simultaneously.
Figure 6.13: Specific tools for the creation of inundation maps and characterization of tidal
movement and storm surges
6.3.5
Activities
The assessment of activities is done in three steps: (a) allocation, (b) sectoral assessment, and (c)
environmental assessment.
The allocation is again subdivided in two functionalities, namely (i) sectoral allocation and (ii)
cropping pattern selection. Water allocation over the sectors is based on water availability, projected
demands, decision rules and management priorities (see Figure 6.14). Given the water allocated to
agriculture, a suitable crop (incl. culture fisheries in fish ponds) is selected. This rule based selection
is based on assessing a predefined set of cropping pattern options on the potential yield given the
water allocated to agriculture, its salinity, its quality (pH and nutrient-content (P/N)) and the flooding
conditions.
Figure 6.14 provides an overview of the associated data flow. The outcome is the allocated supply
(source-sector destination) and the selected cropping pattern in every grid cell.
73
DB
Environmental
Requirements
WaterDepth
InstreamFlows
QualityClass
SalinityClass
3 Cell
WQClasses
SalinityClasses
Volumes (availability)
Withdrawal
ReqQualityClass
ReqSalinityClass
strategy
selection
DB Strategy/Options
ManagementPriorities
DecisionRules
Technologies
4 FloodRegulation
AndDrainage
(flow regime
characteristics, SIs)
RULE BASED
ALLOCATION MODULE
wetland
instream
mangrove
agriculture
domestic
industry
culture fisheries
livestock
ProjectedLandUse
RULE BASED
CROPSELECTION MODULE
agriculture
culture fisheries
DB CropPatternData
CropWaterRequirements
NutrientRequirements
PotentialCropBenefits
SalinityRequirements
AllocatedSupply
(IV) 5BC,DSS
per sector:
Volume
from Source/storage
DB
SelectedCroppingPatterns
(IV) 5B,6,DSS
Soil-CropSuitability
Figure 6.14: Water allocation to various activities - data flow

Given the allocated supply, information on flood attenuation and drainage and possibly other SIs, a
damage-benefit assessment can be executed for every economic sector. Simple mathematical relations
will be used for this purpose. Figure 6.15 illustrates the associated dataflow. Note that technologies
and incentives may have an impact on the performance of the economic sectors.
Figure 6.15 does not account for the fisheries sector. This sector has been moved to the environmental
assessment cluster, as their situation depends highly on the suitability of the fish habitat in the
regional water bodies (Figure 6.16). Dependent on the knowledge content of the modules addressing
in-stream or mangrove ecosystems, sedimentation related data might be relevant. Within this diagram
the rural poor people are included as well, as the concept of a habitat suitability assessment can assist
in quantifying the situation with regard to their quality of life.
74
DB CropPatternData
CropWaterRequirements
NutrientRequirements
PotentialCropBenefits
SalinityRequirements
DB Socio-Economics
Benefit-Damage coeff.
Nutrition-coeff.
consumptive
uses
River
3 Flows (SI)
WaterLevels (SI)
DB InstreamReq
InstreamFlows
strategy
selection
DB Strategy
Technologies
Incentives
5A
domestic
SelectedCroppingPattern (IV)
ProjectedDemands (IV)
agriculture
instream
uses
livestock
power & energy
forestry
navigation
industry
DB InstreamReq
WaterDepth
River
3 Depths (SI)
5A AllocatedSupply
per sector:
Volume
from Source/storage
4 FloodRegulation
AndDrainage
(flow regime
characteristics, SIs)
Damage-Benefit
(IV) 6, DSS
Figure 6.15: Economic sector assessment (excl.fisheries) associated data flow
2
Cell
3 Flows
3 Volumes
3 Waterlevels
3 SalinityClass
4 WQclass
4
WQ characteristics (IV)
ProjectedLandUse
DB EnvonmentalReq.
SuitabilityCoefficients
(Depth,Connectivity,
QualityClasses,SalinityClasses)
Environmental/HabitatAssessment
instream
wetland
terrestrial
fisheries
mangrove
HabitatSuitability
(IV) 6, DSS
rural
poor
4 FloodRegulation
AndDrainage (SI)
4
SedimentTransport
AndRetention (SI)
Fisheries production
DB
SalinityControl (SI)
Socio-Economics
Production-coeff.
Nutrition-coeff.
capture
fisheries
culture
fisheries
Damage-Benefit
(IV) 6, DSS
Figure 6.16: Environmental assessment including the fisheries sector associated data flow
75
6.3.6
Impacts
All previous module clusters should have delivered sufficient information to start the process of data
aggregation into DSIs. This aggregation is done by the so-called Impact module(s). Figure 6.17
illustrates the data flow foreseen. However, it should be carefully checked if all data delivered by the
module clusters, combined with the existing data from databases is really sufficient to generate the
appropriate values for all DSIs. If not, relevant IVs or SIs should be added to the existing lists.
strategy
(selection)
5C
HabitatSuitability
5BC
DB AccessTo
WaterSupply
Sanitation
Damage-Benefit
4 FloodRegulation
AndDrainage
Impacts & DSIs

FoodSecurity
WaterRetention
AndProduction
Economic
Development
SalinityControl
DSIs 7,DSS
QualityofLife
4 TideAndStormSurge
Regulation
Ecosystem
Sustainability
4
SedimentTransport
AndRetention
WasteAssimilation
DB Costs
Investments
O&M
Figure 6.17: Impact assessment - associated data flow

6.3.7
Evaluation
Finally, the DSIs are evaluated using a scorecard or multi-criteria analysis (MCA) tools. Figure 6.18
illustrates the data flow foreseen.
Stakeholder
perspective
(selection)
DB Weigting
Coefficients
6 DSIs
Evaluation &
MCA Tool
MCA weighted
table DSS
Scorecard DSS
Figure 6.18: Evaluation /multi-criteria analysis - associated data flow

76
Visualization in DSS: Within the DSS, all SIs, IVs and DSI and the weighted MCA overview should
be made accessible in various views, e.g., on the map, in an animation in graphs and tables. An
overview of the accessible datasets is provided in Figure 6.19.
6 DSIs
Water Resources
7 Scorecard
4 FloodRegulation
AndDrainage
3 River (SI)
Flows
Volumes
WaterLevels
Depths
SalinityClasses
SalinityConc.
WQClasses
WQConcentrations
7 MCA
weighted table
WaterRetention
AndProduction
4 SalinityControl
4 TideAndStormSurge
Regulation
Activities (econ.&env.)
5BC Damage-Benefit (IV)
3 Cell (SI)
Flows
Volumes
WaterLevels
5A AllocatedSupply
4 SalinityClasses
WQClasses
WQConcentrations
4 SedimentTransport
AndRetention
ProjectedLandUse (IV)
4 WasteAssimilation
5A
4
InundationMaps (IV)
SelectedCroppingPattern (IV)
5C HabitatSuitability (IV)
Figure 6.19: Overview of data sets to be made accessible in the DSS

6.4
Engines
Script-based engines are an elegant way of providing an open and adaptive environment for modelling
needs. Therefore, these engines will be applied whenever feasible. PcRaster, a powerful dynamic
modelling engine for grid-based applications, is the preferred tool for all grid-based computations,
including the Water Balance Model. For cost-computations, aggregations and classifications and
possibly even MCA calculations, it is necessary to investigate if Excel can be used to create an
understandable and manageable calculation-script. Other options might be mathematical toolboxes
such as Matlab, a customizable calculator developed by CEGIS, or a custom made code.
The main river model will be based on commercial hydrodynamic modelling software such as the
Mike 11 or SOBEK-1D2D engines.
6.5
DSS environment
6.5.1
DSS and CF responsibilities
While the previous sections focus on the dataflow within the computational framework, they have not
addressed any of the aspects related to data management, visualization and so on.
Table 6.1 indicates the responsibilities of both items in this respect:
77
Table 6.1: Responsibilities between DSS-environment and the computational framework

DSS-environment accounts for:
Computational framework accounts for:
Case composition
Computational data flow
Case related data management (i.e., prepared

model input files)
Internal IO (incl. reading model input files)

Calculations
Script management (if needed at all)

Workflow management
Visualization
An important concept in the DSS is the definition of a case, i.e., the combination of scenarios,
strategies, programmes, options, priorities, etc. Whatever way is chosen to organize/structure these
items, it should be fixed, as from a software-perspective a case will be interpreted as a complete
model run specification. In the end, a case needs to contain all references to model engines, model
input data (schematizations, parameters, boundary conditions), and model output.
Note that all data input preparation, except for the results to be passed through, is done beforehand
outside the DSS-environment and outside the CF. However, to enable case specific data management,
the DSS needs to contain reference to those model input files.
6.5.2
Overview of DSS-layering
To organize the functionalities mentioned in Table 6.1, a layered structure is proposed for the DSS
(see Figure 6.20).
DSS.GUI (Graphical user interface)
Exploration
Case
Composition
Visualization
DSS.Servers
CaseServer
Etc
.
controls
global dataflow
accesses
data
DataStore
provides bindings
ScriptServer
WorkFlowServer
updates scripts
controls workflow execution
DSS.CF (Computational Framework)

WBM
MRM
accesses
data
etc..
DSS.Utilities
Figure 6.20: Overview of DSS - structure

The top-layer, visible to the end-user is the Graphical User Interface. It contains all viewers and
editors, with limited business logic and IO.
The middle layer is a services layer, providing most of the DSS related business logic. The services
layer provides:
A data store, which structures all model related files

78
A case server, which holds the meta-information of a case (i.e., all bindings), and
controls the data organization.
A script server, which updates computation scripts (e.g., bindings) if needed;
A workflow server, which controls the global sequence of execution of the
computations.
The lower layer is the computational layer. This layer holds the engines. Each engine accesses the
data store to obtain its private input data using its own IO routines.
Finally, a set of low-level utilities (error handling, messaging, conversions) is grouped in a utilities
layer, which is available to all components.
79
Chapter 7
Role of Implementation partners
7.1
Overall planning
A tentative overall planning has been done considering all the identified tasks, including scheduling of
dependencies, estimation of duration and a proposal for the task lead and co-worker (i.e.,
collaborating institutes). The duration estimates are preliminary and might need to be adjusted with
the consent of the development partners. The task list and the preliminary overall plan are presented
in appendices B and C, respectively.
The Royal Netherlands Embassy (RNE) is funding this project. The availability of funds for the
implementation of the plan is currently under process.
7.1.1
Task inventory
Many tasks (e.g., testing, calibration, sensitivity analysis) are repetitive in nature, but apply to other
software-components or models.
Using a default task list for (model) component development, a dedicated task list has been
developed for each component. The following task groups have been identified:
7.1.2
Research tasks
Model formulation tasks (incl. script development)
Data preparation tasks
Model testing and calibration tasks (incl. sensitivity analysis)
Software development tasks (i.e., source code development in C#/VisualBasic/C++ etc.)
Global overviews
Without going into details, two overviews are provided of the estimates. Note that these estimates are
preliminary and might need to be adjusted depending on unknown factors and complexities of tasks
about the duration.
Table 7.1 provides the estimate per Component or Top-level task group. An overview in terms of
research, model formulation, data preparation, model testing and calibration, software development,
model application, etc., is presented in Table 7.2.
An initial estimate of the workload of the various partners is made as well. However, as most of the
work can be executed by various partners, inputs from each partner have been estimated and
presented in appendices B and C.
Table 7.1: Global overview organized by software module
Task group/Component
Estimated
effort (mm)
Estimated
effort (mm)
Inception
10
General software tasks
34
4.SpecificProcessingTools
29
PcRaster-engine
Wqcharacterization
81
Role of implementation of partners

Estimated
effort (mm)
Estimated
effort (mm)
OpenMI (HarmonIT) training
SalinityCharacterization
DSS software development
23
WaterResourcesCharacterization
DSS-user manual
FlowCharacterization
Test facilities
FloodMapping
(Sub)-Releases
MorphologicalProxy
Early 'decision' tasks
TideAndStormSurgeProxy
1.Boundary Conditions
inflow: GBM model
19
10
5.ActivityStates
WaterAllocation
47
5
sea level:BayOfBengal model
CropSelection
2.Land use, econ. & demogr.

Development
20
SectorAssessment
19
LandUseProjection
10
HabitatAssessment
10
SectoralProjection
10
FisheriesProduction
3.National Water Resource

System (NWRS)
48
6. DSI_Impacts
NWRS-general
7.Evaluation
MainRiverModel
WaterBalanceModel
Project management
22
RiverSalinity
RuralSalinity
RuralWQ (WasteAssimilation)
RiverWQ
GroundwaterWQ
3
Total
250
Input from Dutch organizations is estimated to be 20-25 person months. Some 10% is expected to be
allocated as project management assistance. The remainder is for technical assistance: 45 % is
dedicated to model-engine specific software development (including linkage water balance modelmain river model)5, 20% is related to assistance in software-component design, 20 % is related to
assistance in model development and the remainder is for general support including specific training.
Table 7.2: Global overview organized by task type (medium-level grouping)
Sl No.
Task description by group
Person months
10
Inception Phase
General software related tasks
Early 'decision' tasks
3
4
5
6
7
General preparation tasks

Research tasks
Model formulation tasks
Data preparation tasks
Model testing and calibration tasks
10
40
30
25
33
0
1
34
9
Part of these activities might need to be implemented in the Netherlands to co-ordinate with other ongoing developments
82
Sl No.
8
9
10
Task description by group

Software development tasks
Model application
Person months
34
3
22
Project management
250
Total
Input from Bangladeshi organizations is estimated to be 225-230 person months. Given the need for
specific expertise, 50-60 person months is foreseen in specific input from IWM for the preparation of
downstream boundary data sets (Bay of Bengal Model), the Main River Model, salinity models, water
quality models, morphology proxy model and some characterization models for water quality,
salinity, etc. BUET-IWFM will require some 25-30 person months to work on the GBM, flow
characterization, tides and storm surges and crop selection models, etc. CEGIS, the overall leading
working team in this project, will be involved mainly in the development of the DSS, landuse
projection, flood mapping, sectoral assessment, habitat assessment, fisheries model and impact model
development. About 120 person-months is estimated for CEGIS. Some specific work of about 5
person-months are to be carried out by hiring service from individuals or other organizations like
BIDS, NGOs. WARPO as the beneficiary of this project needs to be engaged in many activities,
mainly in the development of the evaluation component. About 15 person-months of activities and 10
months for management have been estimated for WARPO. However, a considerable part of the
remaining tasks are to be executed by all the other organizations as well.
7.2
Essential and critical tasks
A few essential tasks have been highlighted, as they need to be fulfilled before others can start. Most
of these tasks relate to decisions to be made.
The tasks include final decisions on:
Interrelated structuring of a case/scenario/strategy/programme/option, etc.
Classification of land cover types
Classification of economic sectors, cropping patterns, demographic (income) groups to be

incorporated in the assessments
Explicit and complete list of WQ-parameters to be incorporated (specifically with regard to P

&N), include units
Definition of WQ-characteristics (IV)
Classification of SurfaceWQ, GroundWQ, SWsalinity, SoilSalinity from a functional/water

use perspective
Grid size to be applied6
Model engine to be applied in the main river
Identification of scenario types like growth, climate, external basin (land use, river linking),
and the number of scenarios per type.
Preferably a complete list of scenarios per type
In addition to these essential decision tasks, other items showed up in the critical path. These items
mainly relate to modules that require extensive research, such as:
A set of research tasks has been identified to support the final decision on the grid size to be applied.
83
Sector-projections of pollution and water demand accounting for technology and practices due
to incentives. Strongly dependent on number of sectors to be incorporated.
Water Balance Model, mainly due to the need to incorporate the NWMP interventions in the
drainage network
Salinity in the rural areas and floodplains, mainly due to potential need for (field) research
Morphology, mainly due to research effort underlying the proxy model
Tide and Storm Surge, mainly due to research effort underlying the proxy model
Sector assessment, mainly due to research on the damage-benefit relation and the behaviour
of water uses (i.e., whether they apply other practise/technology in periods of water shortage).
Strongly dependent on number of sectors to be incorporated
Habitat assessment, strongly dependent on number of species incorporated in assessment
DSI and impacts, mainly due to the need to develop methodologies to translate the
overwhelming amount of number into the policy relevant DSIs.
7.3
Inputs from WARPO
WARPO will be the ultimate beneficiary of this project. In addition to the task of administering the
project, WARPO has to be involved in some vital tasks. During the preparation of the work plan a
total of 8 person-months of contribution has been estimated.
WARPO will take the lead for the following tasks with assistance from CEGIS, IWM and IWFM for
which 3 person-months are estimated.
Updating of the working document of the computational framework
Structuring of relations between case/scenarios/strategy/programme/option
Selection of model engines and documentation for future usage
Selection of the MCA method for evaluating and weighting coefficient in agreement with
other stakeholders and documentation
Moreover, WARPO will participate actively in some activities as co-worker where 3 person-months
are required. Another couple of person-months will be used to review some more tasks. The detailed
tasks are presented in Appendix B.
7.4
Inputs from IWM
IWM is proposed to be responsible for a number of modelling tasks which generally include model
formulation, data preparation, model testing, model calibration, model application and documentation.
A total of 50-60 person-month tasks planned to be carried out by IWM are listed below and the details
are presented in Appendix B:
Bay of Bengal Model: data preparation to model application
Main River Model: data preparation to model application
River Salinity Model: data preparation to model application
Rural Salinity Model: data preparation to model application
Rural Water Quality Model: data preparation to model application
River Water Quality Model: data preparation to model application

84
7.4.1
Ground Water Quality Model: data preparation to model application
Water Quality Characterization Model: data preparation to model application
Salinity Characterization Model: data preparation to model application
Water Resource Characterization Model: data preparation to model application
Morphological Proxy Model: data preparation to model application
NWRS general-tool development and testing, development of Tide and Storm surge proxy
model.
Proposed IWM project team

To deliver the expertise required, an extensive group of specialists will need to contribute to the
project. The team is planned to be as follows:
Position
Person Input
Person Month
Senior Modeler
Junior Modeler
20
Data base specialist
Programmer
18
Report, training, dissemination
Total
55
7.5
Inputs from IWFM
IWFM has conducted the review of the NWMP programme and has prepared the specification and
design of the computational framework. During the implementation phase IWFM will be assigned the
tasks of developing a number of tools and some research work. A total of 25-30 person months is
estimated for IWFM. The tasks for IWFM are listed below and the details are presented in Appendix
B:
Review of the NWMP programme
Interrelated structuring of a case/scenario/strategy/programme/option, etc.
Development of NWRS-general tools
7.5.1
Inputs from IWFM
To deliver the expertise required, a group of specialists from IWFM will need to contribute to the
project. The team is planned to be as follows:
85
Position
Person Input
Person
Month
Hydrology and Water Resources System expert

Hydrodynamic and Morphological expert
1
1
4
8
Water Quality expert

Database and GIS expert
Documentation
1
1
7
8
1
Total
28
7.6
Dutch input
7.6.1
Co-operation
From both the perspectives of Delft Hydraulics and CEGIS, this project is seen as a valuable way to
increase the common understanding and exchange of knowledge. As this type of project fits very well
with on-going R&D developments at Delft Hydraulics, the institute might adjust some of its R&D
activities to better suit the needs of CEGIS and WARPO.
For the best arrangement, a mutual exchange of source codes and scripts produced in this project will
be helpful. If considered beneficial to the project, additional codes or software-components (e.g.,
HarmonIT software) might be exchanged without charging additional funds. For licensed products,
special arrangements need to be made.
As an important role foreseen for the PcRaster-package, CEGIS is considering a Memorandum of
Understanding with this company. This type of agreement was highly recommended by the
September-October 2003 Mission from Delft Hydraulics for CEGIS to obtain and maintain the source
codes of all software.
7.6.2
The role and tasks of WL delft hydraulics
During the project planning, Delft was put in the position of co-designing the main software
components and model-formulations as well as developing the linkage software. In addition, Delft
was given the responsibility of reviewing the major documents. All activities, of course will be
executed in close cooperation with CEGIS and other Bangladeshi partners. If necessary, further
assistance might be required for other tasks as well.
In summary, Delft is expected to play a major, often leading role in:
Software development in relation to the PcRaster-engine (in co-operation with the PcRaster
development team)
Software development of linkage between the Main River Model and Water Balance Model
Software development (OpenMI-wrapping) of RiverSalinity and RiverWQ models
Software design for some backend DSS-components (Utilities, CaseServer, ScriptServer,

WorkFlowServer)
Model formulation for LandUseProjection
Model formulation for SectorProjection
Model formulation for the WaterBalanceModel
Model formulation of RuralWQ (waste assimilation)

86
Model formulation for WaterAllocation
A minor, assisting role is in:
Grid size decision
Model engine decision
Software design for remaining DSS-components;
If needed software design for various characterization modules and FloodMapping module
Schematization preparation, testing and calibration of the Main River Model, RiverWQ and
RiverSalinity models
Development of a CropSelection mechanism
Model formulation for SectorAssessment
Model formulation for HabitatAssesment
Model formulation for FisheriesProduction
Development of mechanisms to transfer computed data into DSIs
For any task, independent of the formal task-lead, important decisions will be made together with
CEGIS and other project partners where relevant.
7.6.3
The role and tasks of PcRaster Software BV
It is proposed to apply the PCRaster grid-model engine within the computational framework. Using
such a script-language, extensive hard-coding of models can be minimized, resulting in reduced costs
during development and maintenance. However, given the specific requirements posed by this project
some modifications will be needed to make optimal use of this product. Modifications are expected to
enable direct reading of attribute tables linked to raster maps, new computational functions (if needed)
and the ability to exchange data at every time step. As the modifications are closely related to the core
engine, it seems logical to incorporate the key developers in the project. Therefore, it is proposed to
include PcRaster Environmental Software BV e.g., as a sub-contractor of Delft Hydraulics.
7.6.4
Proposed Dutch project team
To deliver the expertise required, an extensive group of specialists will contribute to the project. Some
of them will contribute in Delft only, e.g., during the Delft meeting or while developing linkage
software.
Mr. Peter Gijsbers is proposed as the project leader of the Delft team. The following persons are
suggested as potential team members. These people are expected to provide assistance at the CEGIS
office in Dhaka. However, other business activities might affect the composition of the team.
Peter Gijsbers (water resources, socio-economics, general IT-expert)
JanJaap Brinkman (land use, water quality, socio-economics, general IT-expert, GIS)
Nathalie Asselman (hydrology, sedimentation, PcRaster specialist, SOBEK 1D2D specialist)
Geert Prinsen (HD model linkage)
Joost Icke (HD water quality)
Aljosja Hooijer (socio-economics, ecology)
Karen Meijer (social welfare, environmental requirements)

87
Eelco van Beek (project management assistance)
Software development related to linking the river to the grid will mainly be executed by:
Geert Prinsen (HD model linkage)
Stef Hummel (IT-expert model linkage)
Cees Wesseling (PcRaster software developer)
7.7
Input from CEGIS
CEGIS is the lead working team for this project. Delft hydraulics from the Netherlands and IWM and
IWFM from Bangladesh is working as co-working team with CEGIS. CEGIS is coordinating and
managing all administrative and development activities. The details of the tasks are presented in
Appendix B.
The tasks in which CEGIS will be heavily involved are as follows:
Water Balance Model
DSS software
Land use, economic and demographic model
Flood mapping
Sectoral and habitat assessment
DSI impacts and evaluation tools
88
References
Architecture design of the Computational Framework for IWRM planning in Bangladesh: Peter
Gijsbers (WL|Delft hydraulics), October 2003
Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy, GoB, 1998:5
Bayley, P. B 1988, Factor Affecting Growth Rates of Young Tropical Flood plain Fishes: Seasonality
and Density dependence, Environmental Biology of Fisheries 21; 127-142
Dudley 1972, R.G. 1972, Growth of Tilapia of the kafue Flood plain, Zambia: Predicted effects of the
Kafue Gorge Dam, Trans Amer. Fish Soc. 2:281-291
BBS, 1998 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics Year Book 1998
BBS, 2000 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics Year Book 1998
BUET Report 1. Model Identification for Impact Assessment of the NWMP, July 2003
BWDB, DPHE, Arsenic report
BWDB, Flood and Erosion Monitoring report
BWP, 2000, Bangladesh Water Vision 2025: Towards a sustainable Water World, edited by Q.K.
Ahmed, Dhaka: Bangladesh water partnership
CEGIS. Technical Note 18: Blue Accounting, Tentative assessment of the functionality of the water
resources systems in Bangladesh and the Netherlands.
DDS. Draft Development Strategy. National Water Management Plan Project, WARPO, Ministry of
Water Resources, August 2000
Deursen, W.P.A. van and Kwadijk, J.C.J., 1994. The impacts of climate change on the water balance
of the Ganges-Brahmaputra and Yangtze basin, Resource Analysis and University of Utrecht, The
Netherlands.
DoE, 1993, Department of Environment report
DoE, 2001, Department of Environment report
Draft Final report of Agriculture Commission, 1999
EGIS, 1998. Environmental and Social Impact Assessment of Khulna-Jessore Drainage Rehabilitation
Project. Environment and GIS Support Project for Water Sector Planning (EGIS-II), Ministry of
Water Resources. September, 1998, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
EGIS, 2001a. Guidebook for Integrated Water Resources Management, concepts and tools, draft
version August 2001. In support of WARPOs IWRM course, organized by EGIS between August 26
and September 6, 2001. Dhaka, Bangladesh
EGIS, 2001b. Contract Research Project on Application of Agroecological Zones Database in
Drought Management and Water Availability Assessment. Environment and GIS Support Project for
Water Sector Planning, Ministry of Water Resources in cooperation with Bangladesh Agricultural
Research Council. June 2001, Dhaka, Bangladesh
EGIS, 2001c. STREAM, an instrument for River Basin Environmental Analysis and Management,
position paper on concepts and structure. Environment and GIS Support Project for Water Sector
Planning, Ministry of Water Resources. EGIS Technical Note 22. May 2001, Dhaka, Bangladesh
89
References
EGIS. Technical Note 15: Blue Accounting, Introduction to a methodology for monitoring and
assessing the functionality of Water Resources System. Dhaka, February 2000
Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods report
FAP-5, 1992, Flood Action Plan Report
Fishery Statistical yearbook of Bangladesh, 2000-2001
Development of Design Criteria of the Water Regulatory Structures for Floodplain Fisheries
Management in Jamalpur Area, 2002, Ahamadul Hassan
Floods fish and fisherman, Gertjan de Graff, Bram born, A.M Kamal & Felix Martin
FRSS published data
Hossain, Mahub, Bose M.L., Chowdhury A., 2001. Changes in agriculture and economy in the floodprone environment in Bangladesh, 1988 t0 2000: insights from a repeated survey of 16 villages. Paper
presented at the workshop on flood prone rice systems, 9-11 January 2001, BRAC Center for
Development Management (BCDM), Rajendrapur, Gazipur, Bangladesh. Organized by BRRI
Bangladesh and IRRI Philippines.
Inception Report, Analytical Framework for Planning for IWRM, July 2003, IWM
IUCN, 2002 Bio-ecological Zones of Bangladesh.
Mission Reports. Review of Analytical Framework Design & Implementation by Prof. Adri Verway,
May 2003.
Review: Analytical Framework for IWRM planning by Prof. Eelco van Beek, June 2003.
Mission Reports. Peter Gijsbers (WL|delft hydraulic) October 2003.
MPO 1990, Master Plan Organization report
NEMAP, National Environmental Managemnt Action Plan, 1995:72
NEMAP, National Environmental Managemnt Action Plan,Vol. II, 1995
NWMP, National Wate Resources Managemnt Plan, Main report, Vol.2, July 2001;page 67
NWMP, Vol. II, National Wate Resources Managemnt Plan August 2000
Schueler, 1987 and Rosgen, 1996
Shahjahan. M, 1993. Flood disaster management in deltaic plain, integrated with rural development,
presented at the International Conference on: Floods in Bangladesh, an interdisciplinary analysis of
alternative solution & strategies, April 1993, Published in: Bangladesh Flood, Views from Home and
Abroad; Mir M. Ali, et al. Dhaka:UPL
Tsai, C. F and Ali L., 1986. Carp spawn Fishery in the Padma (Ganges)-Brahmaputra River System
Technical Report 1, Model Identification for Impact Assessment of the NWMP: IWFM, BUET, July
2003
Technical Report 2, Design of Water Resources Management Tools: IWFM, BUET, Oct 2003
World Bank, 1998 Bangladesh, the flood of 1998; a preliminary assessment. B Kapil Kapoor, Zahid
Hussain and I.M. Faisal, Dhaka: World Bank
World Bank, 1999: Bangladesh Key Challenges for the next millennium
World Bank, 2000. World Development Indicators
90
Appendix A: Detailed description of SI

FD-1: PEAK WATER LEVELS
WRS function
Purpose
Maximum water levels during the monsoon are widely used to indicate
the seriousness of the floods and are directly related to many types of
flood damages
Definition
Maximum yearly water level in meter with respect to PWD datum above
mean sea level
Scenarios
Climate change
Cross-border developments such as infrastructure and

(de)forestation
Bangladesh infrastructure developments
Affected by
Interventions
Description
Protection works in the active floodplain area
Damage of infrastructure, lives and culture fisheries

Health of local population
Increase open water fisheries
Impact on
Production of crop
Transportation
Recharge of groundwater
Specification
Locations
Teesta (Kaunia); Mohananda (Mohadevpur); Atrai (Atrai

Railway Bridge); Gorai (Gorai Railway Bridge);
Nabaganga (Bardia); Kumar (Faridpur); Old-Bhadurabad
(Mymensingh); Bangshi (Mirzapur); Brahmaputra
(Noonkhawa); Jamuna (Bahadurabad, Serajganj,
Kazipur); Padma (Baruria Transit, Mawa); Ganges
(Hardinge Bridge); Meghna (Bhairab Bazar, Meghna
ferry ghat, Chandpur)
Frequency
Extreme values every 2, 5 10, 20 and 100 years
Data Sources/availability
BWDB is the main source of data for about 30 years
Information/Analysis
Regional model results are available.
91
Appendix - A
Appendix A (Contd.): State indicator

FD-2: DURATION OF SUBMERGED CONDITIONS ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
WRS function
Purpose
Duration of submerged condition above critical levels indicates the

severity of damage due to flood. Duration of submergence is one of the
key indicators, which has influence on the economic development, food
security, quality of life and conditioning of habitat of the respective
area/region.
Definition
The duration of submergence is defined by the number of decades during

the monsoon above the critical levels of respective land covers
(agriculture, forestry, fisheries, infrastructure)
Scenarios
Affected by
Climate change
Infrastructure development
Interventions
Description
Flood protection
Reduce national, sectoral income and employment

Increase capture fisheries
Impact on
Increase poverty and hamper income distribution

Health risk
Good habitat condition
Specification
Locations
Teesta (Kaunia); Mohananda (Mohadevpur); Atrai (Atrai

Railway Bridge); Gorai (Gorai Railway Bridge);
Nabaganga (Bardia); Kumar (Faridpur); Old-Bhadurabad
(Mymensingh); Bangshi (Mirzapur); Brahmaputra
(Noonkhawa); Jamuna (Bahadurabad, Serajganj,
Kazipur); Padma (Baruria Transit, Mawa); Ganges
(Hardinge Bridge); Meghna (Bhairab Bazar, Meghna
ferry ghat, Chandpur)
Frequency
Extreme values every 2, 5 10, 20 and 100 years
BWDB is the main source of data for about 30 years

BIWTA in the tidal area
Limited analysis
92
Appendix - A

FD-4: RECESSION OF FLOOD (15 AUGUST)
WRS function
Purpose
The recession of flood indicates how late flood stays in the region. Late
recession means the water level on 15 August (last date for transplanting
Aman) above critical level and causing damage to Aman production.
Definition
The water level on 15 August in a yearly meter with respect to PWD

datum above mean sea level. The water level on 15 August, above which
Aman can be transplanted in F1 land if depth of inundation more than 45
cm.
Scenarios
Affected by
Sea level rise
Interventions
Description
Impact on
Specification
Flood control
Foreign exchange earning
Aman production
Food security become more vulnerable
Increase fish production in the floodplain
Locations
BWDB gauges
Frequency
15 August
BWDB is main source of data
93
Appendix - A

FD-5: CHANGE IN WATER LEVEL
WRS function
Purpose
Drainage index are used to indicate the drainage condition of an area and
directly impacts on the surrounding environment, health and crop
suitability.
Definition
Drainage index can be defined by the amount of water drained from an

area during recession period of the monsoon. The drainage index can be
expressed by a ratio between the maximum volume of water drained
(Vmax Vt) up to a specific period (t) and the maximum volume entered
(Vmax).
Scenarios
Affected by
Sea level rise

Urbanization
Interventions
Description
Impact on
Specification
Flood control
Foreign exchange earning
Aman production
Food security become more vulnerable
Increase fish production in the floodplains
Locations
BWDB gauges
Frequency
15 August
BWDB is the main source of data
94
Appendix - A

WP-1: USABLE GROUNDWATER RECHARGE
WRS Function
Water Retention and Production
Purpose
The usable ground water recharge is an important state indicator to assess the
availability of ground water resources for various uses, e.g., domestic,
industrial and agriculture. This indicator influences Boro production and has
impact on economic development and quality of life.
Definition
The amount of usable water that infiltrates/percolates to the aquifers in Mm3

Influenced Scenarios
Rain
By
Flood inundation
Rainfall and evaporation/evapo-transpiration
Land use
River water level for shallow aquifer
Tectonic Activities
Description
Impact on
Interventions
Urbanization: Covering of open surfaces with
impermeable construction materials makes less area
available for ground water recharge
Drainage and flood control
Floodplain intervention, e.g., infrastructural
development: roads, settlements, etc
Deforestation
Ground water Abstraction/Irrigation
Boro Production
National Income
Agriculture
Employment
Nutrition
Poverty
Drought
Location
64 Districts
Frequency
2 yr, 5 yr dry
Specification
Data
source/availability
BWDB observation wells providing data on GWL at # locations (monthly)
Information/Analysis Ground water Modelling
95
Appendix - A

WP-2: SURFACE WATER STORED IN FLOOD PLAINS DURING DRY PERIOD
WRS Function
Purpose
Definition

Surface Water stored in floodplains during the dry period is used to assess water
availability for captured fisheries, habitats for fish and other aquatic species, Boro
production and domestic uses. This indicator influences the ecosystem in beels and
haor areas.
Water stored in the floodplains and low-lying areas during dry season in Mm3.
Affected by
Scenarios
Climate change
Sea water level variation
Ground water Level
Sedimentation
Flood inundation
Interventions
Description
Impact on
Specification
Floodplain intervention: embankment, roads,

infrastructures, development of settlements
Drainage and Flood Control
River connectivity
Capture Fisheries
Income from fisheries
Fish habitat
Bio-diversity
Terrestrial Eco-system in haors
Boro production
Location
464 Upazilas
Frequency
2 yr and 5yr dry season
NWRD GIS coverage, BWDB irrigation map, NWRD DEM

Data source/availability
Regional Model
96
Appendix - A

WP-3: SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT
WRS Function
Purpose
Definition

Water retained in the soil as soil moisture in the dry season is used by the
vegetation at or around the house and by agricultural crops such as wheat and
Boro. Terrestrial ecosystems also depend on the availability of soil moisture in
the dry season. Major floods of long duration may lead to more available soil
moisture at the beginning of the dry season for crop and vegetation and to a
lower demand for additional irrigation, which would reduce the production cost
of Boro and wheat.
Water content in soil expressed in mm/month
Influenced
by
Scenarios
Rainfall
Flooding
GWL depletion
Evapo-transpiration
Sunshine hour
Interventions
Description
Impact on
Land use, e.g., agricultural practice
Drainage
Fertilizer use
Desertification
Deforestation
Agricultural yield
Location
District levels
Frequency
2 yr and 5 yr dry
Specification
SRDI database
Data source/availability
BWDB Database
Model of IWM
97
Appendix - A

WP-4: SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY/ MINIMUM RIVER FLOW
WRS Function
Purpose
The minimum water flow is the indicator for river water availability for irrigation,
domestic and industrial use and shipping. Minimum flow is also important for fish
migration and more in general for maintaining aquatic ecosystems. Minimum flow in
the rivers of the coastal area controls salinity intrusion.
Definition
Minimum flow volume in rivers expressed in Mm3

Influenced
by
Scenarios
Flood control and drainage
Cross border developments such as infrastructures
Climate change
Interventions
Flood protection embankments
Dams and reservoirs
Drainage control structures
Description
Impact on
Fish production
Navigation
Terrestrial ecosystem
Irrigation
Location
Major and minor river systems of Bangladesh
Frequency
2 yr, 5yr, 10yr, 20 yr years
Specification
Data
source/availability
BWDB, BIWTA, IWM
Regional model results are available
98
Appendix - A

WP-5: MINIMUM GROUNDWATER LEVEL
WRS Function
Purpose
Lowering ground water levels affect the accessibility of this source for domestic and
agricultural purposes as extractions become more and more difficult and costly. In
addition, it may lead to increasing percolation, affecting homestead vegetation, while
standing water bodies might soon dry out (including fish ponds). Determining the
minimum ground water level will facilitate quantification of impacts in these areas as a
result of over abstraction, changes in ground water recharge and climate change, etc.
Definition
Lowest ground water level in PWD datum

Influenced
by
Scenarios
Over abstraction (unplanned)
Reduced ground water recharge
Rainfall
Interventions
Description
Impact on
Urbanization
Landuse
Salinity intrusion
Increased cost for abstraction
WQ/ Arsenic
Aquifer contamination
Location
District levels
Frequency
2 yr and 5 yr dry condition
Specification
BWDB and DPHE observation wells

Data
source/availability
MPO ground water models
Ground water models and observation
99
Appendix - A

WP-6: DEPTH OF WATER AT CRITICAL RIVER SECTION
WRS Function
Purpose

Minimum depth of water level is used to assess the availability of water
for navigation and fish migration
Minimum depth of water in the cross-sections of the river during dry season
Definition
by
Upstream withdrawal
Over abstraction (unplanned)
Interventions
Dredging
Description
Impact on
Navigations
Fish migrations
Location
Navigation route
Frequency
1:5 yr
Specification
BWDB cross section data, water level data

Data
source/availability
Navigation route
Fish migration route
Information/Analysis Compute depth and water level required for navigation and fish migrations
100
Appendix - A

SC-1: MAXIMUM INTRUSION LENGTH FOR DIFFERENT CRITICAL LEVELS
WRS Function
Purpose
Definition
Salinity control
This indicator has a strong impact on agricultural production specially rice
production, shrimp production, captured fisheries production and thus influences
economic activities, e.g., employment, national income, etc. It also influences the
biodiversity and aquatic flora and fauna in the coastal zones and the Sundarbans.
The maximum salt intrusion length for different critical levels is the extent up to which
saline water with different critical levels of salinity enters into fresh water rivers.
Salinity intrusion length is measured in Km.
Influenced
by
Scenarios
Fresh water discharge
Sea level
Salinity concentration at the mouth of the estuary
Siltation of river offtake and bed
Climate change
Interventions
Diversion of upstream fresh flow
Polderisation and confinement of rivers
Control structure along flowing channels
Cross dams
Land use
Description
Impact on
Agriculture production
Shrimp culture
Employment
National income
Poverty index
Income distribution
Access to safe water
Settlement
Biodiversity
Location
Coastal and estuarine areas
Frequency
Not known
Specification
Data
source/availability
BWDB hydrology, NWRD, IWM, DoF, DoE
Salinity measurement and mathematical modelling to generate salinity data
101
Appendix - A

SC-2: MAXIMUM SALINITY LEVELS AT SPECIFIC LOCATION
WRS Function
Purpose
Definition
Salinity control
This indicator has a strong impact on agricultural production and the ecosystem. It
is expected to determine damage functions based on critical levels for different
crops and species.
Salinity concentration of water expressed in ppt (parts per thousand)
Influenced
by
Scenarios
Sea level
Climate change
Interventions
Description
Impact on
Cross dams
Land use
Shrimp culture
The Sundarbans
Poverty index
Location
Frequency
Not known
Specification
Data
source/availability
Salinity measurement and mathematical modelling to generate salinity data
102
Appendix - A

SC-3: DURATION OF SALINITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
WRS Function
Salinity control
Purpose
Duration of salinity above critical values determines the usability of the water for
different uses. It is expected to determine damage functions based on critical levels for
different crops and species.
Duration of exposure to salt water above critical concentration values expressed in days
Definition
Influenced
by
Scenarios
Sea level
Climate change
Interventions
Cross dams
Land use
Description
Impact on
Shrimp culture
Employment
National income
Poverty index
Income distribution
Settlement
The Sundarbans
Location
Frequency
Not known
Specification
Data
source/availability

Salinity measurement and mathematical modelling to generate salinity time series to
compute duration above any critical level
103
Appendix - A

TS-1: LENGTH OF PROPAGATION AT 1/3 RD OF SURGE HEIGHT
WRS Function
Purpose
Definition

The length of propagation at 1/3rd of surge height will determine the severity of any
cyclone surge on the local community and economy of the areas being exposed. It
could be related to develop damage functions of different infrastructures.
The length at which the surge height is 1/3rd of its maximum height at the mouth of the
estuary expressed in Km.
Influenced
by
Scenarios
Sea water level
Climate change
Geometry of the estuary
Confinement and storage capacity
Interventions
Construction of flood protection works e.g., construction of flood
embankments, river protection works, water control structures,
cross-dams
Encroachment of floodplains
Impact on
Description
National income
Shrimp
Rice
Floods
Income distribution
Public infrastructure
Settlement
Safety
Location
Coastal areas
Frequency
2 yr, 5 yr, 10 yr, 20 yr, 25yr
Specification
Data
source/availability
BWDB hydrology, BIWTA, IWM, BMD, CPA, MPA
Water level observation, storm surge models
104
Appendix - A

TS-2: TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS
WRS Function
Purpose
Definition

It is an useful indicator to asses various DSIs e.g., water availability for
shrimp production, level of possible drainage, aquatic environment in the
Sundarbans and in haor areas, etc.
The difference between the maximum high and minimum low water level in
meter.
by
Climate change
Reduction of tidal flow: diversion of flow or restriction
of tidal flow into floodplains
Reduction of flow area
Interventions
Description
Impact on
Location
Construction of flood protection works e.g., construction

of flood embankments, river protection works, water
control structures, cross-dams
National income
Agriculture
Shrimp
Income distribution
The Sundarbans
Inter-tidal areas
Habitat
Species diversity
Coastal and estuarine area
Specification
Frequency
Data
source/availability
BWDB hydrology, BIWTA, IWM, BMD, CPA, MPA
Information/Analysis Tidal water level data collection and mathematical modelling to generate data
105
Appendix - A

ST-1: TRANSPORT CAPACITY: DOMINANT DISCHARGES
WRS Function
Purpose
Sediment Transport/Retention
Transport capacity is defined as the quantity of sediment that can be carried by the
flow without net erosion or deposition. Sedimentation and erosion processes are
dictated by transport capacity, e.g., sedimentation for larger transport rate and
erosion for smaller transport rate than capacity. The transport capacity of a river is
governed by the discharge.
It is an important indicator to predict the erosion and sedimentation in rivers and
floodplains.
Definition
The amount of sediment that can be carried with flow in m3/s

Influenced
by
Impact on
Description
Scenarios
Water Discharge
Deforestation
Rainfall
Offtake and bed form
Interventions
cross-dams
River constrictions
Land use
Agriculture
Fisheries
Employment
Capture fisheries
Floods
Droughts
Poverty index
Income distribution
Nutrition
Sanitation
Safety (erosion, floods & surges)
Haor areas
Floodplain areas
Inter-tidal areas
Habitat
Species diversity
Location
All rivers
Frequency
Not known
Specification
Data
source/availability
IWM
Analysis of sediment transport and discharge time series and mathematical modelling to
establish transport capacities of different rivers
106
Appendix - A

ST-2: SEDIMENT BALANCE: DISTRIBUTION OF SEDIMENTS INC. FLOODPLAIN
SEDIMENTATION
WRS Function
Purpose
Definition
Sediment transport/ retention

Sediment balance is the net amount of sediment entering/ leaving through a certain
reach of a channel. It is an important indicator that provides the distribution of
sediment in different reaches, bifurcations and in floodplains.
The difference of inflow and outflow sediment transport in kg/s or m3/s.
Water discharge
Influenced
Deforestation
by
Rainfall
Offtake and bed form
Impact on
Description
Interventions
cross-dams
River constrictions
Land use
Agriculture
Fisheries
Employment
Capture fisheries
Floods
Droughts
Poverty index
Income distribution
Nutrition
Sanitation
Haor areas
Floodplain areas
Inter-tidal areas
Habitat
Species diversity
Location
All rivers
Frequency
Not known
Specification
Data
source/availability
IWM
Hydro-morphological data collection, analysis and morphological modelling
107
Appendix - A

ST-3: CHANNEL STABILITY/ MORPHOLOGIC DYNAMICS: WIDTH OF RIVERS
WRS Function
Purpose
Channel stability is an important indicator that indicates the alignment of a river course
and its bank line shifting or migrating over the years. This is associated with the change
in river geometry e.g., depth, width and slopes. This is important to know for the
assessment of accretion or erosion of lands and settlements, flooding and subsequent
damages.
Definition
It can be defined as the width of the channel section in Km.

Influenced
by
Scenarios
Hydraulic conditions (discharges, sheer stress on the bank, scour
depth)
Geo-technical properties (bed and bank materials, poor water
pressure on bank)
Local condition (vegetation, local protective works, structural
loading on the slope)
Rainfall
Deforestation
Interventions
Man-made interventions e.g., construction of earthen dams,
structures
Encroachment
Construction of flood protection works e.g., embankments, spurs,
groynes, revetments, etc.
Description
Impact on
Location
Agriculture
Fisheries
Employment
Capture fisheries
Floods
Droughts
Poverty index
Income distribution
Nutrition
Sanitation
Haor areas
Floodplain areas
Inter-tidal areas
Habitat
Species diversity
All major rivers
Specification
Frequency
Data
source/availability
BWDB hydrology, IWM, CEGIS
Analysis of satellite images and morphological modelling
108
Appendix - A

ST-4: SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION
WRS Function
Purpose
Definition

Sediment concentration is the solid volume per unit fluid volume or solid mass per
unit fluid volume. It is an important indicator to assess the amount of sediment
transport that governs the sedimentation, erosion processes in the rivers,
floodplains, haors and beels. This indicator has a direct impact on the aquatic
habitat.
The amount of sediment per unit fluid expressed in mass per unit volume (mg/l) or
volume per unit of fluid (m3/m3 )
Influencedby
Scenarios
Hydraulic conditions (discharges, sheer stress on the bank,
scour depth)
Geometry of the river (curvature of the bend and the width)
Geo-technical properties (bed and bank materials, poor water
pressure on bank)
Local condition (vegetation, local protective works, structural
loading on the slope)
Rainfall
Deforestation
Interventions
Encroachment
Construction of flood protection works e.g., embankments,
spurs, groynes, revetments, etc.
Description
Impact on
Agriculture
Fisheries
Employment
Capture fisheries
Floods
Droughts
Poverty index
Income distribution
Nutrition
Sanitation
Haor areas
Floodplain areas
Inter-tidal areas
Habitat
Species diversity
Location
Major rivers
Frequency
Not known
Specification
Data
source/availability
BWDB Hydrology, IWM
Sediment sampling and laboratory analysis (e.g., filtration)
109
Appendix - A

WA-1: CONCENTRATION OF SELECTED POLLUTANTS IN RIVERS AND STAGNANT
WATER (TSS, pH, Nitrate, Phosphate, etc.)
WRS function
Waste assimilation
Purpose
Concentrations of selected pollutants are used to assess the quality of water.

For example, concentration of Total Suspended Solid (TSS) and pH are
indicative of turbidity and acidity/alkalinity, respectively, of a waterbody;
concentration of Nitrate and Phosphate are indicative of whether the
waterbody is eutrophic or not, which has bearing on the Dissolved Oxygen
(DO) concentration, the most important parameter to sustain aquatic
ecosystem.
Definition
Presence of pollutant (mass) per unit volume of water is generally defined as

the concentration of the pollutant. For example. TSS is expressed in mg/l.
However, there are exceptions. For example. Nitrate and Phosphate are
expressed as mg/l of Nitrogen and Phosphorus, respectively (NO3-N, PO4-P),
while pH is unitless, having a range of 0 14.
Description
Affected by
Scenarios
Less flow in the dry season
River bank erosion
Cross-border pollution
Interventions
Untreated waste from household and industries
Beneficial use of water (household, industrial,
irrigation, recreation, etc.)
Aquaculture/ fisheries
Impact on
Specification
Location
2-3 locations, each on the Buriganga, Lakhya,

Turag, Balu, Dhaleswari, Tongi Khal, Bangshi,
Karnatali, Bhairab, Rupsha, Karnafuli, Halda
Frequency
Weekly to fortnightly in dry season; monthly in

monsoon.
Data source/ availability
DOE is the main source of data for about 20 years
Information/ analysis
Study on the peripheral river system of Greater Dhaka; Pilot Study on

Karnafuli-Halda river system in Chittagong (available at IWM). Several
dissertations at BUET, DU, etc.
110
Appendix - A

WA-2: BOD IN RIVERS AND STAGNANT WATER
WRS function
Waste assimilation
Purpose
Concentration of Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) has direct bearing

on the Dissolved Oxygen (DO) concentration, the most important
parameter to sustain aquatic ecosystem.
Definition
The rate of removal (i.e., consumption) of dissolved oxygen by microorganisms in aerobic degradation of organic matter in waterbody. This is an
indirect way of expressing the amount of biodegradable organic matter
present in a certain volume of water (mg/l).
Description
Affected by
Scenarios
Less flow in the dry season
Interventions
Untreated waste from household and industries
Impact on
Dissolved oxygen (DO) of waterbody

Aquaculture/ fisheries
Specification
Location
2-3 locations, each on the Buriganga, Lakhya, Turag,

Balu, Dhaleswari, Tongi Khal, Bangshi, Karnatali,
Bhairab, Rupsha, Karnafuli, Halda
Frequency
Weekly to fortnightly in dry season; monthly in monsoon.

111
Appendix - A

WA-3: COLIFORM IN RIVERS AND STAGNANT WATER
WRS function
Waste assimilation
Purpose
Coliform bacteria (expressed as Total coliform and/or Fecal coliform) is the

indicator of the presence of pathogenic microorganism in a waterbody.
Definition
The Most Probable Number (MPN), per unit volume (Nos/100 ml), of Total
coliform or Fecal coliform in a waterbody.
Description
Affected by
Scenarios
Surface runoff containing human or animal excreta
Interventions
Untreated human or animal excreta containing pathogenic
micro-organism
Impact on
Beneficial use of water (recreation, bathing, household,

etc.)
Waterborne diseases
Specification
Location
2-3 locations, each on the Buriganga, Lakhya, Turag, Balu,

Dhaleswari, Tongi Khal, Bangshi, Karnatali, Bhairab,
Rupsha, Karnafuli, Halda
Frequency
Weekly to fortnightly in dry season; monthly in monsoon.

112
Appendix - A

WA-4: GROUNDWATER QUALITY
WRS function
Waste assimilation
Purpose
Ground water quality is mostly important for human consumption, irrigation,

industrial growth and fisheries
Definition
Whether the ground water quality complies with respect to human

consumption or agro-industrial development.
Description
Affected by
Scenarios
Arsenic contamination
Salinity
Fluoride
Interventions
Industrial pollution
Agro-chemical inputs
Shrimp culture (Bagda)
Pit latrines (in slum areas)
Impact on
Beneficial use of water (drinking, bathing, household,

etc.)
Arsenic induced disease
Irrigation
Ground water safe yield
Specification
Location
Arsenic contaminated areas

Ground water salinity prone areas
Industrial belt
Shrimp (Bagda) culture land
Coal mining areas
Frequency
Annual
BWDB and DPHE are the main source of data; some useful data are also
available with the Department of Geology (DU), ITN (BUET), JRC, DoE
BWDB maintains (since the early 80s) 117 GW monitoring stations

throughout the country; major cations and anions with some trace elements
are analyzed.
Reports and dissertations are available with other organizations/ institutions
113

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Analytical framework for the planning of

Integrated Water Resources Management

5.1.6 Urban Rainfall-runoff and Water Quality Module.......................................................... 57

Abbreviations and Acronyms

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

BCAS Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies

British Geological Survey

Biological Oxygen Demand

Bangladesh Water Partnership

Chemical Oxygen Demand

DPHE Department of Public Health and Engineering

Decision Support Indicator

Food and Agriculture Organization

Flood Action Plan

FCD/I Flood Control and Drainage/Irrigation

Flood Drainage Index

FFYP Fifth Five Year Plan

Gross Domestic Product

Geographic Information System

IUCN The World Conservation Union

Institute of Water Modelling

LGED Local Government and Engineering Department

Master Plan Organization

NEMAP National Environment Management Action Plan

NWMP National Water Management Plan

Sea Level Rise

Total Suspended Solid

WARPO Water Resources Planning Organization

Water Resource System

Background and rationale

Public consultations to discuss problems, objectives and possible measures or strategies.

The evaluation of alternative strategies. This involves application of the assessment

The establishment of an operational network of government agencies, which will be involved

Scope and contents of the report

Objective and scope of the analytical framework

STEP 1: Analysis of problems and identification of possible measures. A problem analysis

STEP 7: Presentation of results. Explicit consideration should be given to the kind of

The Blue Accounting conceptual framework1

INPUTS: Strategies & Scenarios

Stages of framework development

Design of a computational framework based on the conceptual framework and on an inventory

Water resources system

Inter-linked system of rivers, estuaries, canals, khals, etc.;

Active floodplains, including beels and haors;

Lakes and man-made ponds;

Ground water aquifers; and

Figure 3.1: Hydrological regions of Bangladesh.

The conceptual framework

WRS related issues in Bangladesh

Flood and drainage congestion

Flood extent area

Note: Area of Bangladesh = 147,570 sq-km

The conceptual framework

Table 3.2: Flooded areas in Bangladesh for different return periods

Flooded areas (%)

Source: Shahjahan, 1993.

SW, SC, SE and

SW, SC, SE, EH

Drought and Low River flow

The conceptual framework

Percentage of yield loss

Thana: Jessore Kotwali

Figure 3.2: Percentage of yield loss against stress days