Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
1) US Dollar Reserve Currency Status Not a Blessing, study says
2) Financial Crisis and Trade: Informal Seminar for World Bank/IMF
Executive Directors
3) UNCTAD calls for stopping monetary chaos
4) The WTO as a barrier to financial regulation
5) Assessment of anti‐crisis measures' impact on trade flows requested by
WTO members
6) Reminder: Accreditation for World Bank/ IMF Spring meetings open
1) US Dollar Reserve Currency Status Not a Blessing, study says
The US dollar reserve currency status has limited benefits, is one of the messages in
the recent paper by McKinsey Global Institute: "An exorbitant Privilege: Implications of
reserve currencies for competitiveness."
The alleged "exorbitant privilege" the US derives from its reserve currency status has
been referred late last year in no less than an IMF staff paper.[i] The McKinsey study, a
Discussion Paper, contests the assertion and uses this assessment to draw important
implications for what the future of the world monetary system will be.
Inertia is a powerful force keeping a currency's reserve status, says the study, because
the factors that make a currency the preferred reserve choice tend to change very
slowly, and because of network externalities ‐it is more efficient to use the same
currency as everyone else. But, in spite of this, there is historic evidence of changes in
currency reserve status which allow to presume that such changes will also occur in
the future.
The study estimates the benefits to the US of its currency's reserve status as ranging
between USD 40 to 70 billion or a 0.3 to 0.5 of GDP in a normal year. This is a result of
adding up:
. seignorage income (estimated in USD 10 billion),
. the capital advantage obtained by US borrowers ‐in other words, lower interest rate
facilitated by the excess demand for US dollars worldwide minus the disadvantage that
US households and companies suffer by having to earn lower interest on their USD‐
denominated holdings (net of the two estimated in USD 90 billion)
But then the study subtracts the losses from competitiveness of US exports. Assuming
a US dollar overvaluation of 7.4 % it estimates the net cost to be in the range of 30 to
60 USD.
While in the next few years the study projects that the benefits to the US will increase,
the costs will increase even further. The pressure for export‐led growth will become
more intense given high unemployment levels in the US, but factors such as the lack of
benefits from a depreciation in relation to economies that peg their currencies to the
dollar, and the strong probability that there is continued high demand for dollars, will
contribute to make the benefits more modest.
The study acknowledges that another benefit of being a reserve currency issuer means
the space for running large fiscal deficits and a loose monetary policy, due to less
subjection to market disciplines. These are, for instance, the arguments put forward in
the IMF staff paper mentioned above.[ii] But the McKinsey Discussion Paper argues
that, on the other hand, the fact that there is so much foreign‐held US debt creates its
own constraints on monetary policy by forcing unsustainable current account deficits
and accumulation of debt. On such basis, it is likely that the significant costs may
increasingly outweigh the advantages and operate towards lower incentives for the US
to maintain its reserve currency status.
The study considers the Euro to be the second preferred reserve currency and
explores, with the same methodology, the Eurozone advantages and costs from the
the euro's reserve currency status. It concludes that the Eurozone has even less
incentives to push for a shift towards a Euro's bigger role as reserve currency.
The paper qualifies the impacts of sharp exchange rate fluctuations on companies as
"substantial" and having generated a significant redistribution of resources as
companies change location and gain or lose market share based on where they are
located. It quotes the results of a survey of executives to argue that the volatility of
exchange rates has a large, and growing, negative impact on company profits and
investment decision‐making. There is a strong relationship between exchange rates
and competitiveness that is more pronounced in trade‐exposed companies and,
geographically, in the Asian region, with exchange rate volatility in the coming years
expected to intensify such impacts.
While the report recognizes research ‐including some well‐known IMF papers issued a
few years ago[iii]‐that point to a negative, but small, impact of exchange rate volatility
on the level of exports, it contends that companies' experience and the survey imply
that costs are higher than what such literature had suggested. Likewise that currency
instability has stronger impacts on variables such as investment, market share,
profitability and so on, than on exports directly. These findings are consistent with
those of UNCTAD experts that had established the impact on exports via, among
others, the impacts on domestic investment decisions, availability and costs of access
to financial markets, domestic productivity differentials and the value of market access
concessions.[iv]
In the concluding chapter, the authors say they expect that in the US and Europe, the
impact of their policies on the global exchange rate system will take a backseat to the
domestic imperatives of a loose monetary policy to keep growth and employment
from worsening. While the prevalence of domestic over external factors and an
"unmanaged" system do not differ from the approach that has prevailed in the past,
the study suggests three ways in which the current conditions have evolved and that
will magnify the repercussions of such approach on exchange rate volatility.
First, the substantial increase in reserve accumulation. Part of this is reserves
accumulated by foreign governments that will tend, for that reason, to oppose
movements to erode the value of the denomination in which they have such
substantial amounts of reserves.
Second, the substantial increase in cross‐border capital movements, encouraging
higher currency carry trades that strongly contribute to exchange rate movements
divorced from economic fundamentals.
Third, the emergence of plausible reserve currency alternatives that make a move
away from the US dollar ‐with consequent uncertainty‐‐ more likely than when such
alternatives do not exist.
Given the reduced benefits for either the US or Europe from acting as reserve currency
issuers, it is possible that we will see increased support for alternatives to the existing
monetary system that more broadly distribute burden and benefits.
The study highlights as evidence of such emerging shifts the discussions on more
exchange rate coordination in platforms such as the G20. It further refers to the recent
initiatives on Special Drawing Rights, while noticing that the amount issued so far is a
very small proportion of global reserves and that existing features of the SDR conspire
against a more significant currency role.[v] The Tobin Tax proposals to curb excesses in
currency volatility are also mentioned in this regard.
The full McKinsey report is available at http://www.asiaing.com/an‐exorbitant‐
privilege‐implications‐of‐reserve‐currencies‐for‐competitiv.html
[i] The paper had been subject of commentary in a preceding "Trade‐Finance Linkages" update
circulated December 14, 2009.
[ii] IMF 2009. The Debate on the International Monetary System ("[the exorbitant privilege] is because
this center country has more macroeconomic policy space by virtue of the greater liquidity of its
markets and ability to borrow in its own currency abroad at lower cost, as well as the seignorage earned
from issuing a global currency....")
[iii] See Clark, Peter et al 2004. Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows‐ Some New Evidence. IMF
Working Paper. May.
[iv] See Kotte, Detlef 2009. Presentation in Caliari and Yu (Ed.) "Trade‐Finance Linkage for Promoting
Development" and UNCTAD 2004, Communication to the Working Group on Trade, Debt and Finance
(WT/WGTDF/W/27).
[v] Consistent with Caliari 2009. "Can the G20 have it both ways? Addressing Global Imbalances without
Reform of the World Monetary System," available at http://www.coc.org/node/6441. (see also for a
complete review of implications that G20 decisions related to Special Drawing Rights up to date have
for the reform of the international monetary system).
2) Financial Crisis and Trade: Informal Seminar for World Bank/IMF Executive
Directors
On March 5, 2010, at the World Bank Main Complex, Washington DC, an informal,
closed seminar for the Boards of the Bretton Woods Institutions, "The Global Financial
Crisis and Trade: What Way forward for the Bretton Woods Institutions?" was
organized by the Rethinking Bretton Woods Project. The event was held with the
generous support of the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ford Foundation.
A premise of the seminar was that, besides market access, the success of developing
countries in the trade system lies, to a significant extent, on meaningful reforms to the
internal and external financial structures in which context such trade is conducted. This
has implications as the world exits from the deep global financial crisis of 2008‐09.
In his opening words to welcome participants, RBW Director Aldo Caliari stated,
referring to the recovery that is underway, that "the forms and strategies by which
countries individually and collectively choose to pursue economic development, how
trade figures in those forms and strategies ‐ will be of extreme relevance for the
strength, sustainability and equity of such recovery."
The seminar sought to provide an opportunity for an informal dialogue among
shareholders of these institutions on how to put the trade needs of developing
countries at the center of financial and monetary responses to the crisis that the
Bretton Woods Institutions are currently developing, providing and guiding. It was
attended by Executive Directors, Alternates and Senior Advisors representing more
than 25 Executive Directors' offices of the Bank and International Monetary Fund, in
addition to some invited members of staff.
More information available at http://www.coc.org/node/6505 (Materials will continue
to be added on this website in the next few days).
3) UNCTAD calls for stopping monetary chaos
Please see below abstract and link to UNCTAD 's latest policy brief "Global Monetary
Chaos: Systemic Failures Need Bold Multilateral Responses" (Policy Brief No. 12).
Amidst continued financial crisis, the question of the global trade imbalances is back
high on the international agenda. A procession of prominent economists, editorialists
and politicians have taken it upon themselves to "remind" the surplus countries, and in
particular the country with the biggest surplus, China, of their responsibility for a
sound and balanced global recovery. The generally shared view is that this means
permitting the value of the renminbi to be set freely by the "markets", so that the
country will export less and import and consume more, hence allowing the rest of the
world to do the opposite. But is it reasonable to put the burden of rebalancing the
global economy on a single country and its currency? This policy brief contends that
the decision to leave currencies to the vagaries of the market will not help rebalance
the global economy. It argues that the problem lies in systemic failures, and as such,
requires comprehensive and inclusive multilateral action.
Available at http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/presspb20102_en.pdf
4) The WTO as a barrier to financial regulation
See below link to a recent article "The WTO as barrier to financial regulation," by Jayati
Ghosh.
In most parts of the world policy‐makers talk about imposing regulations on the
financial sector as the events of the past two years in the world economy, and
particularly in the core capitalist countries, bring a change from the earlier
presumption of ''efficient markets'' that led to widespread lifting of controls and shift
to ''self‐regulation'' in the financial sector. But the question is, are they feasible at all
given the legally binding commitments made with respect to financial services
liberalisation by the US and several other WTO members?
Full article is available at
http://www.networkideas.org/featart/feb2010/print/prnt080210_WTO.htm
5) Assessment of anti‐crisis measures' impact on trade flows requested by WTO
members
In a joint communication to the WTO (document symbol WT/GC/W/617 and
WT/GC/W/617/Add.1), Argentina, India and Ecuador have called for a "stocktaking" of
the impacts on trade flows of the stimulus measures undertaken by WTO members in
response to the crisis.
In the communication the governments call for an evaluation of "the amount and
reliability of the information on stimulus packages available at the present moment."
In this regard it mentions the:
. Identification of different components of stimulus programmes, including "buy/invest
local" requirements.
. To the extent possible, specification of the amount involved for each component of
the stimulus programs and not only the total amount.
. Differentiation by type of measure, such as trade measures, production subsidies,
consumer subsidies, export subsidies, financial aid, government procurement,
infrastructure, aids for household income, etc.
. Specification on whether those different components are applied on a permanent or
a temporary basis (in the last case, envisaged time frame).
. Specification of the status of implementation of each component of the stimulus
programmes.
The communication is posted at http://www.coc.org/node/6519
6) Reminder: Accreditation for World Bank/ IMF Spring meetings open
The 2010 Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will
be held over the weekend of April 24 ‐ 25 at the World Bank and IMF Headquarters in
Washington, D.C. As in previous years, the Civil Society Policy Forum, a program of
policy dialogues for Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), will be held between April 22
and April 25, 2010.
Accreditation will close on April 12.
For information on how to apply, please visit:
World Bank
Aldo Caliari
Director
Rethinking Bretton Woods Project
Center of Concern