BQ Untuk Jasa Kargo Udara

16.
885
Aircraft Systems
Engineering
Cost Analysis
Karen Willcox
MIT
Aerospace Computational Design
Laboratory
AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY
Outline
Lifecycle cost
Operating cost
Development cost
Manufacturing cost
Revenue
Valuation techniques
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Lifecycle Cost
Lifecycle :
Design - Manufacture - Operation - Disposal
Lifecycle cost :
Total cost of program over lifecycle
85% of Total LCC is locked in by the end of
preliminary design.
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Impact on LCC (%)

60
40
20
0
65%
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Disposal
Operation
and support
Manufacturing
and acquisition
80
Detailed design
100
Preliminary design,
system integration
Conceptual
design
Lifecycle Cost
95%
85%
Time
(From Roskam, Figure 2.3)
Operating Cost
Airplane Related Operating Cost

(AROC)
Passenger Related Operating Cost
(PROC)
Cargo Related Operating Cost
(CROC)
Systems Related Operating Cost
(SROC)
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SROC
10%
CROC
2%
PROC
18%
AROC
70%
Airplane Related Operating

Costs
CAPITAL COSTS:
Financing
Insurance
Depreciation
Capital
Costs
CAROC
40%
60%
CASH AIRPLANE RELATED

OPERATING COSTS:
Crew
Fuel
Maintenance
Landing
Ground Handling
GPE Depreciation
GPE Maintenance
Control & Communications
CAROC is only 60% - ownership costs are significant!

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CAROC Breakdown per Trip

Control
& Comm
Ground
Handling
Other
3%
9%
7%
Landing
Crew
40%
6%
Fuel is roughly 20% of

60% of 70% of Total
Operating Cost
i.e. 8%
Maintenance
15%
Fuel
20%
typical data for a large commercial jet

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Tooling
Other
Cost incurred one time only:
Engineering
- airframe design/analysis
- configuration control
- systems engineering
Tooling
- design of tools and fixtures
- fabrication of tools and fixtures
Other
- development support
- flight testing
Engineering
Non-Recurring Cost
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Material
Support
Cost incurred per unit:
Labor
- fabrication
- assembly
- integration
Material to manufacture
- raw material
- purchased outside production
- purchased equipment
Production support
- QA
- production tooling support
- engineering support
Labor
Recurring Cost
Learning Curve
As more units are made, the recurring cost per

unit decreases.
This is the learning curve effect.
e.g. Fabrication is done more quickly, less

material is wasted.
Yx
Y0 x
Yx = number of hours to produce unit x

n = log b/log 2
b = learning curve factor (~80-100%)
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Learning Curve
Cost of unit
0.8
0.6
0.4
b=0.9
0.55
0.2
Every time
production
doubles, cost
is reduced
by a factor
of 0.9
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Unit number
Typical LC slopes: Fab 90%, Assembly 75%, Material 98%

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Number of planes
Elements of a Cost Model
Engineering Data
& Performance
Build Schedule
120
80
40
0
2000
2010
2020
Recurring
Cost
2030
Year
Component Breakdown
Plane
Wing
COST
MODEL
Fuselage
Winglet Skin Ribs

NRC/lb
RC/lb
Weight
Subparts/lb
Learning Curve
NRC Distribution
2
NRC ($B)
Cost of unit
1
0.8
0.4
0
Non-Recurring
Cost
10
20
30
Unit number
40
50
0
2003
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2007
2011
Year
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2015
Typical Cost Modeling
1. Take empirical data from past programs.

2. Perform regression to get variation with
selected parameters, e.g. cost vs. weight.
3. Apply judgment factors for your case.

e.g. configuration factors, complexity
factors, composite factors.
There is widespread belief that aircraft
manufacturers do not know what it actually
costs to turn out their current products.
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Cost Modeling
Aircraft is broken down into modules

Inner wing, outer wing,
Modules are classified by type
Wing, Empennage, Fuselage,
Cost per pound specified for each module type

Calibrated from existing cost models
Modified by other factors
Learning effects
Commonality effects
Assembly & Integration: a separate module

2 cost categories: development & manufacturing
Production run: a collection of modules
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Cost Modeling
Plane
Landing
Gear
Centerbody Wing
Winglet
Inner
Wing
Outer
Wing
Identifier
Weight
Material &
Equipment
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Payloads Final
Assembly
At this level, the

degree of detail can
range from e.g. wing
to rivet.
Area RC per
pound
Labor
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Propulsion Systems
Subparts
per pound
Support
NRC per
pound
Tooling
NRC time
distribution
Engineering
Other
Development Cost Data
non-dimensional labor hours
Baseline QA
Baseline Dev. Labs
Baseline Tool Fab.
Baseline
QA QA
Baseline
Baseline
Dev.Dev.
Labs
Baseline
Labs
Baseline
ToolTool
Fab.
Baseline
Fab
Baseline
ToolTool
Design
Baseline
Design
Baseline
M.E.M.E.
Baseline
Baseline Tool Design
.
Baseline
Engr.
Baseline
Engr.
Baseline M.E.
Baseline Engr.
non-dimensional time
Boeing data for large commercial jet

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Development Cost Model
Cashflow profiles based on beta curve:
c(t ) Kt D 1 (1 t ) E 1
Typical development time ~6 years
Learning effects captured span, cost
0.06
Support
0.05
normalized cost
Tool Fab
0.04
Tool Design
ME
0.02
(from Markish)
Engineering
0.01
normalized time
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
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Development Cost Model
Payloads
8%
Wing
20%
Systems
17%
Empennage
9%
Installed Engines
8%
Landing Gear
1%
Fuselage
37%
Representative non-recurring cost breakdown by parts for

large commercial jet (from Markish).
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Development Cost Data
For your reference: $/lb assembled from public domain

weight and total cost estimates plus representative NRC
breakdown by aircraft part (see Markish).
Engineering
ME
Tool
Design
Tool Fab
Support
Totals
40.0%
10.0%
10.5%
34.8%
4.7%
100.0%
Wing
$7,093
$1,773
$1,862
$6,171
$833
$17,731
Empennage
$20,862
$5,216
$5,476
$18,150
$2,451
$52,156
Fuselage
$12,837
$3,209
$3,370
$11,169
$1,508
$32,093
$999
$250
$262
$869
$117
$2,499
Installed Engines
$3,477
$869
$913
$3,025
$408
$8,691
Systems
$13,723
$3,431
$3,602
$11,939
$1,612
$34,307
Payloads
$4,305
$1,076
$1,130
$3,746
$506
$10,763
Landing Gear
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Manufacturing Cost Model
Aircraft built modules required

Modules database
Records quantities, marginal costs
Apply learning curve effect by module, not by aircraft
Labor
Materials
Support
85%
95%
95%
time
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Manufacturing Cost Model
Final Assembly
6%
Wing
27%
Payloads
11%
Systems
6%
Installed Engines
9%
Empennage
10%
Landing Gear
3%
Fuselage
28%
Representative recurring cost breakdown by parts for large

commercial jet (from Markish).
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Manufacturing Cost Data
For your reference: $/lb values assembled from public

domain weight and total cost estimates plus representative
RC breakdown by aircraft part (see Markish).
Labor
Materials
Other
Total
$609
$204
$88
$900
$1,614
$484
$233
$2,331
Fuselage
$679
$190
$98
$967
Landing Gear
$107
$98
$16
$221
Installed Engines
$248
$91
$36
$374
Systems
$315
$91
$46
$452
Payloads
$405
$100
$59
$564
Final Assembly
$58
$4
$3
$65
Wing
Empennage
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NASA Cost Models
Online cost models available at

http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/airframe.html
e.g. Airframe Cost Model

- simple model for estimating the development and
production costs of aircraft airframes
- based on military jet data

- correlation with empty weight, max. speed, number of
flight test vehicles, and production quantity
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Revenue Model
Revenue model must predict market price

and demand quantity.
180
90
160
80
price ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
60
50
40
30
20
10
20
0
1985
A300
A310
A330
A340
747
767
777
MD-11
70
deliveries
767-200ER
767-300ER
777-200
777-300
747-400
MD-11
A300
A330
A340
140
1990
1995
0
1980
2000
1985
1990
1995
2000
year
year
Historical wide body data from Markish. No correlation found

between price and quantity.
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Aircraft Pricing
Cost-Based Pricing
Cost + Profit = Price
Personal aircraft
Business jets?
Military aircraft
Market-Based Pricing
Performance
Operating Cost
Market
Value
Competition
Passenger Appeal
Commercial transport
Source: Schaufele
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Commercial Aircraft Pricing
PRICE
Total AROC
CAROC
Total Airplane Related

Operating Costs are fairly
constant.
Aircraft price must
balance CAROC.
COST/WEIGHT
TRADE-OFF
(Capital costs)
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Business Jet Empirical Data
Figure A7 in Roskam:
AMP1989 = log-1{0.6570 + 1.4133 log WTO}

AMP1989 is predicted airplane market price in 1989
dollars
Take-off weight: 10,000 lb < WTO < 60,000 lb
BUT Gulfstream GIV and 737 BJ versions do not fit
the linear trend.
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Commercial Jet Empirical

Data
AMP1989 = log-1{3.3191+ 0.8043 log WTO}

dollars
Take-off weight: 60,000 lb < WTO < 1,000,000 lb
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Military Aircraft Empirical

Data
AMP1989 = log-1{2.3341+ 1.0586 log WTO}

dollars
Take-off weight: 2,500 lb < WTO < 1,000,000 lb
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Revenue Model: Price
Assumption: market price based on

1. Range
2. Payload
3. Cash Airplane-Related Operating Cost (CAROC)
Regression model:
k1 (Seats) k 2 (Range) f (CAROC )
Note that speed does not appear. No significant

statistical relationship between price and speed
was found in available data.
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Narrow bodies:
0.735(Seats )1.91 0.427(Range) f (CAROC)
Narrow bodies
Estimated price
Estimated
price($M)
($M)
80
70
60
50
40
30
y=x
Airbus
Boeing
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Actual
price
($M)
Actual
price ($M)
Model from Markish, price data from Aircraft Value News, The
Airline Monitor, 2001.
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Wide bodies:
0.508(Seats)2.76 0.697(Range) f (
CAROC)
Wide bodies
160
Estimated
($M)
Estimatedprice
price ($M)
140
120
100
80
60
y=x
Airbus
Boeing
40
20
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Actual
price ($M)
Actual
price
($M)
Model from Markish, price data from Aircraft Value News, The
Airline Monitor, 2001.
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Revenue Model: Quantity
Demand forecasts
3 sources: Airbus; Boeing; Airline Monitor

Expected deliveries over 20 years
Arranged by airplane seat category
Given a new aircraft design:

4000
Airbus
3500
Airline Monitor
3000
Quantity
Quantity
Assign to a
seat category
Assume a
market share
Demand forecast
20-year production
potential
Boeing
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
100
125
150
175+
200
250
300
350
400
500+
Seat
Category
Seat
Category
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Revenue Model: Dynamics
Expected aircraft deliveries: forecasted

Actual deliveries: unpredictable
Observe historical trends: growth rate, volatility
400
350
300
250
units
narrow
200
y = 94.571e0.0228x
R2 = 0.3724
150
100
50
wide
y = 52.776e0.0167x
R2 = 0.4092
40
37
34
31
28
25
22
19
16
13
10
0
1
6-mo. period
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Valuation Techniques
The top 5 investor questions:

How much will I need to invest?
How much will I get back?
When will I get my money back?
How much is this going to cost me?
How are you handling risk & uncertainty?
Investment Criteria
Net present value
Payback
Discounted payback
Internal rate of return
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Net Present Value (NPV)
Measure of present value of various cash flows in different

periods in the future
Cash flow in any given period discounted by the value of a
dollar today at that point in the future
Time is money
A dollar tomorrow is worth less today since if properly

invested, a dollar today would be worth more tomorrow
Rate at which future cash flows are discounted is
determined by the discount rate or hurdle rate
Discount rate is equal to the amount of interest the

investor could earn in a single time period (usually a
year) if s/he were to invest in a safer investment
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Calculating NPV
Forecast the cash flows of the project over Its

economic life
Treat investments as negative cash flow
Determine the appropriate opportunity cost of capital
(i.e. determine the discount rate r)

Use opportunity cost of capital to discount the future
cash flow of the project
Sum the discounted cash flows to get the net present
value (NPV)
C1
C2
CT
NPV C0

!
2
T
1 r 1 r
1 r

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NPV example
Period
Discount Factor
Cash Flow
Present Value
-150,000
-150,000
0.935
-100,000
-93,500
0.873
+300000
+261,000
Discount rate = 7%
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NPV =
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$18,400
Discount Rate
One of the problems with NPV: what discount rate

should we use?
The discount rate is often used to reflect the risk
associated with a project:

the riskier the project, use a higher discount rate
Typical discount rates for commercial aircraft programs:
12-20%
The higher the discount rate, the more it does not
matter what you do in the future...
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Payback Period
How long it takes before entire initial investment is

recovered through revenue
Insensitive to time value of money, i.e. no discounting
Gives equal weight to cash flows before cut-off date & no

weight to cash flows after cut-off date
Cannot distinguish between projects with different NPV
Difficult to decide on appropriate cut-off date
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Discounted payback
Payback criterion modified to account for the time

value of money
Cash flows before cut-off date are discounted
Surmounts objection that equal weight is given to all

flows before cut-off date
Cash flows after cut-off date still not given any weight
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Internal rate of return (IRR)
Investment criterion is rate of return must be greater

than the opportunity cost of capital
Internal rate of return is equal to the discount rate for
which the NPV is equal to zero
NPV
C1
C2
CT

!
C0
2
T
1 IRR 1 IRR
1 IRR

IRR solution is not unique
Multiple rates of return for same project
IRR doesnt always correlate with NPV
NPV does not always decrease as discount rate
increases
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Decision Tree Analysis
NPV analysis with different future scenarios

Weighted by probability of event occurring
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Dynamic Programming
A way of including uncertainty and flexibility in the

program valuation
Key features:
Certain aspects of the system may be uncertain, e.g. the
demand quantity for a given aircraft = UNCERTAINTY
In reality, the decision-maker (aircraft manufacturer) has

the ability to make decisions in real-time according to
how the uncertainty evolves = FLEXIBILITY
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Dynamic Programming:
Problem Formulation
The firm:
Portfolio of designs
Sequential development phases
Decision making
The market:
Sale price is steady
Quantity demanded is unpredictable
Units built = units demanded
Problem objective:
Which aircraft to design?
Which aircraft to produce?
When?
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Problem Elements
1. State variables
2. Control variables
st
ut
3. Randomness
4. Profit function
5. Dynamics
F
t (
st )
max S t ( st , ut )

Et >Ft 1 (
st

1 )
@
ut
1
r
Solution:
Solve iteratively.
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Operating Modes
How to model decision making?
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Example: BWB
Blended-Wing-Body (BWB):
Proposed new jet transport
concept
250-seat, long range
Part of a larger family sharing

common centerbody bays,
wings, ...
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Image taken from NASA's web

site: http://www.nasa.gov.
operating mode
16
120
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
mode
demand
100
80
60
40
20
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
quantity demanded
per year
Example: BWB Simulation

Run
time (years)
3,000,000
2,000,000
cash flow ($K)
1,000,000
0
0
10
12
14
16
-1,000,000
-2,000,000
-3,000,000
-4,000,000
time (years)
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Example: BWB Importance
of Flexibility
25
dynamic programming
program value ($B)
20
Net Present Value
15
10
5
0
-5
11
18
28
44
69
108 171 270
-10
initial annual demand forecast
At baseline of 28 aircraft, DP value is $2.26B versus NPV

value of $325M
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References
Airbus Global Market Forecast, 2000-2019. Appendix G, Detailed passenger fleet results, p.
74.
Aircraft Value News Aviation Newsletter www.aviationtoday.com/catalog.htm
The Airline Monitor, ESG Aviation Services.
Boeing Current Market Outlook, 2000. Appendix B, p. 42.
Jane's All the World's Aircraft. London : Sampson Low, Marston & Co., 2001.
Markish, J. Valuation Techniques for Commercial Aircraft Program Design, S.M. Thesis, MIT,
June 2002.
Markish, J. and Willcox, K. Valuation Techniques for Commercial Aircraft Program Design,
AIAA Paper 2002-5612, presented at 9th Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization
Symposium, Atlanta, GA, September 2002.
Markish, J. and Willcox, K., A Value-Based Approach for Commercial Aircraft Conceptual
Design, in Proceedings of the ICAS2002 Congress, Toronto, September 2002.
NASA Cost Estimating website, http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/airframe.html
Roskam, J., Airplane Design Part VIII, 1990.
Raymer, D., Aircraft Design: A Conceptual Approach, 3rd edition, 1999.
Schaufele, R., The Elements of Aircraft Preliminary Design, 2000.
9/19/2004
16.885

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16.

Aerospace Computational Design

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Impact on LCC (%)

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Airplane Related Operating Cost

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Airplane Related Operating

CASH AIRPLANE RELATED

CAROC is only 60% - ownership costs are significant!

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

CAROC Breakdown per Trip

Fuel is roughly 20% of

typical data for a large commercial jet

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Cost incurred one time only:

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Cost incurred per unit:

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

As more units are made, the recurring cost per

e.g. Fabrication is done more quickly, less

Yx = number of hours to produce unit x

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Typical LC slopes: Fab 90%, Assembly 75%, Material 98%

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Elements of a Cost Model

Winglet Skin Ribs

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Typical Cost Modeling

1. Take empirical data from past programs.

3. Apply judgment factors for your case.

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Aircraft is broken down into modules

Wing, Empennage, Fuselage,

Cost per pound specified for each module type

Assembly & Integration: a separate module

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

At this level, the

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Development Cost Data

non-dimensional labor hours

Baseline Tool Fab.

Baseline Tool Design

Boeing data for large commercial jet

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Development Cost Model

Cashflow profiles based on beta curve:

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Development Cost Model

Representative non-recurring cost breakdown by parts for

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Development Cost Data

For your reference: $/lb assembled from public domain

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Manufacturing Cost Model

Aircraft built modules required

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Manufacturing Cost Model

Representative recurring cost breakdown by parts for large

AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY

Manufacturing Cost Data

For your reference: $/lb values assembled from public

k1 (Seats) k 2 (Range) f (CAROC )

0.735(Seats )1.91 0.427(Range) f (CAROC)