Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
SUBMITTED BY
Abdullah Al Faysal
Khondoker Onosultana
Afroza Rokhsana
Abdullah Al Amin
SUPERVISED BY
Dr. Pran Kanai Saha
Professor, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering
BUET, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh.
Khondoker Onosultana
Afroza Rokhsana
Abdullah Al Amin
SUPERVISED BY
Dr. Pran Kanai Saha
Professor, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering
BUET, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh.
CERTIFICATION
This thesis entitled as PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS OF WEATHER DATA BY USING
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR FOR AIRCRAFT NAVIGATION submitted by the group as
mentioned below has been accepted as satisfactory as a part of the requirements in order to
complete the BSc degree at the Department of Aeronautical Engineering, Military Institute of
Science and Technology, Bangladesh. This paper embodies the original work done under my
supervision. Undersigned is on deputation from department of Electrical and Electronic
Engineering at BUET and had been the thesis supervisor for the group up to December, 2014.
GROUP MEMBERS
Abdullah Al Faysal
Khondoker Onosultana
Afroza Rokhsana
Abdullah Al Amin
SUPERVISOR
ii
DECLARATION
We the authors hereby declare that, thesis entitled as PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS OF
WEATHER DATA BY USING DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR FOR AIRCRAFT
NAVIGATION is submitted to the Department of Aeronautical Engineering, Military Institute
of Science and Technology as a part of the requirements in order to complete the BSc degree in
Aeronautical Engineering (Course Number 400). This is our original work and was not submitted
elsewhere for the award of any other degree or any other publication.
AUTHORS
-------------------------Abdullah Al Faysal
----------------------Afroza Rokhsana
----------------------------Khondoker Onosultana
------------------------Abdullah Al Amin
iii
ACKNOWLWDGEMENT
All praises to the most gracious and most merciful, the Almighty Allah who bestowed upon us
the will for the successful completion of our thesis work within the scheduled time.
We would like to express our heartfelt gratitude and indebtedness to the thesis supervisor Dr.
Pran Kanai Saha, Professor, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, BUET,
Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh, whose encouragement, continuous guidance, valuable suggestions,
cooperation and cordial support from the initial to the final level to enable us complete the thesis
successfully. His advice, initiative, moral support and patience are very gratefully acknowledged.
We are thankful to Bangladesh Meteorological Department for providing us the required
information. And also we are thankful to our department and our respected faculty members for
their support and co-operation.
iv
ABSTRACT
Weather prediction plays a vital role in day to day life. Prediction is done through analyzing the
nature of reflected signals from meteorological targets with respect to the transmitted signal.
In this thesis, radar reflectivity has been found out from drop diameter by using Marshal
Palmers Drop Size Distribution (DSD) formula. Then the relationship between radar reflectivity
and rain fall rate for a particular period of time in Bangladesh has been analyzed for proving the
validation of previously established formula (Z=aRb). Since the values of constants a and b
depends on geographical locations and seasonal changes, hence from the rainfall rate and
reflectivity data these values have been found out for a particular season. A correlation between
reflectivity, temperature and ice water contact for a particular place at a given period of time has
been found out. Effect of humidity on reflectivity has also been discussed from the acquired data.
Rainfall probably the key observable in any weather forecast. In this thesis, mostly the
discussions has been made about rain fall rate and reflectivity, factors for their dependence,
detection procedure and problems in rainfall estimation.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CERTIFICATION .......................................................................................................................... ii
DECLARATION ........................................................................................................................... iii
ACKNOWLWDGEMENT ............................................................................................................ iv
ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................................... v
TABLE OF CONTENTS............................................................................................................... vi
LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... viii
LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... ix
NOMENCLATURE ...................................................................................................................... xi
CHAPTER 1 ................................................................................................................................... 1
INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 BACKGROUND OF WORK ............................................................................................... 1
1.2 LITERATURE REVIEW ...................................................................................................... 2
1.3 WEATHER RADAR OBSERVATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE .................................... 3
1.4 WEATHER FORECASTING ............................................................................................... 3
1.5 WEATHER FORECASTING FOR AIR TRAFFIC ............................................................. 4
1.6 WEATHER RELATED DECISION MAKING IN AVIATION ......................................... 4
1.7 WEATHER RADAR AND WEATHER RELATED DECISIONS ..................................... 5
1.8 BENEFITS OF USING WEATHER RADAR ..................................................................... 5
1.9 DISSERTATION OBJECTIVE ............................................................................................ 6
CHAPTER 2 ................................................................................................................................... 7
SCIENCE OF WEATHER RADAR .............................................................................................. 7
2.1
vii
TABLE OF FIGURES
CHAPTER 2
Figure 2.1: Basic Radar Block Diagram ...8
Figure 2.2: Basic Radar Classification ......9
Figure 2.3: Secondary Radar Block Diagram ....9
Figure 2.4: Frequency VS Time Curve ....11
Figure 2.5: Signal Transmission Principle ...12
Figure 2.6: Weather Radar Signal Observation ...17
Figure 2.7: Radar network Example in X-band: (a) Channel Allotment.
(b) Radar System Structure...18
8. Figure 2.8: Signal Processing Flow Diagram ..19
9. Figure 2.9: Snow Detection ..21
10. Figure 2.10: Representation of Different Detections ...22
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
CHAPTER 3
1. Figure 3.1: Frequency Changes due to Movement of Object ..23
2. Figure 3.2: PDF of Marshal-Palmer DSD with Diameter Interval 0.1 mm and 0.2mm
..............27
3. Figure 3.3: PDF of Marshall-Palmer DSDs with Three Different Rain Rates.29
4. Figure 3.4: Co- relation between Rainfall Velocity VS Raindrop Diameter....30
5. Figure 3.5: Normalized Gamma Distribution, with Variations.....31
6. Figure 3.6: Reflectivity VS Rainfall Rate Graph....34
7. Figure 3.7: Rainfall Data for Consecutive Three Months in Dhaka, Bangladesh35
8. Figure 3.8: Recorder Average Rainfall Rate of March 2011 in Dhaka,
Bangladesh.......................................................36
9. Figure 3.9: Graph for Comparing Different Z-R Relations......38
10. Figure 3.10: Comparison between Different Z-R Relation with Specific Z-R
Relation.43
11. Figure 3.11: Recorded Rainfall Rate of April 2011 in Dhaka, Bangladesh.44
12. Figure 3.12: Z-R Relation Comparison from Z=200R1.6...............45
13. Figure 3.13: Comparison between Base Reflectivity VS Rainfall Rate..46
14. Figure 3.14: Graphical Representation of Z=142R1.7..48
15. Figure 3.15: Graphical Representation of Rainfall VS Reception Power51
16. Figure 3.16: Graphical Representation between ICW (Ice Water Content) and
Reflectivity....53
17. Figure 3.17: Graphical Representation between ICW (Ice Water Content) and
Reflectivity54
18. Figure 3.18: Graphical Representation between ICW (Ice Water Content) and
Reflectivity55
viii
19. Figure 3.19: Ice Water Content VS Reflectivity Factor for a Rayleigh Scattering
Radar......56
20. Figure 3.20: Specific Humidity VS Atmospheric Attenuation Curve.......58
21. Figure 3.21: Reflectivity Measurement from PPI Plot..59
22. Figure 3.22: Schematic of the Procedure Used to Calculate the Total Wind From Radial
Velocities....61
23. Figure 3.23: Schematic Describing the Calculation of the Total Wind ....62
24. Figure 3.24: Co-relation between Wind Speed VS Height....63
ix
LIST OF TABLES
NOMENCLATURE
CHAPTER 1
Z
Radar reflectivity.
Rainfall Rate.
CHAPTER 2
PRF
Number of pulses.
f0
Target range.
Pr
Received power.
Pt
Transmitted power.
Antenna gain.
Ae
Effective aperture.
Volume.
dB
|Kw|2
xi
Wavelength.
Ze
Z0l
Reference length.
SNR
|K|2
Dielectric factor.
H0
Reference height.
Radar constant.
FN
Noise figure.
T0
Beam width.
Lag time.
CHAPTER 3
Vr
Radial velocity.
N0
Drop diameter.
Rainfall rate.
N(D)
f()
Nw
ZDR
Differential Reflectivity.
Shape parameter.
VN
Nyquist velocity.
SH
Specific humidity.
Ag
Gaseous Attenuation.
Reflectivity.
ICW
Temperature.
Volume.
mi
Mass of particle j.
|Ki|2
n(D)
FZ()
xiii
CHAPTER 4
ZDR
Differential Reflectivity.
Radar reflectivity.
Rainfall rate.
Nw
xiv
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF WORK
The development of radar systems is accompanied by the development of radio
technology, where the word radar actually comes from the expression Radio Detection
And Ranging. Radar is a type of passive remote sensing device which uses microwave
frequencies for transmission and reception of signals [36].
Radar developed quickly after its invention by Watson-Watt in 1936 (although whether
this was the true invention is debated) [36].By the end of World War II radar had been
well developed and was very successful, especially for the Allied forces. During the war,
weather returns were generally considered a nuisance, but before the end of the war,
the Meteorological Office had 10 cm radar. Since, radar has evolved, with
improvements in all the technologies used in radar. Probably the greatest advances in
radar were the invention of the transistor and the computer. The computer was
especially important for radar meteorology, so that the large quantities of data
generated can be utilized and archived. The first work in the UK done on the accuracy
of precipitation from radar was in the late 1940s [37]. Meanwhile in Canada, Marshall et
al. (1947) derived an early Z-R relation. However, it was not until 1967 that the use of
radar to provide quantitative rainfall measurement in the UK was studied [37]. This
experiment used 10 cm radar but suffered from a number of problems including a large
beam width. Hence the radar was converted to 5.6 cm in 1973, reducing the beam to 1.
In the early 70s the Dee Weather Radar Project based in north Wales pioneered
research into the use of radar for rainfall rates, much of the work remains valid, though
perhaps too confident, this project lead us to have the operational network we now have
in the UK [37]. This is now the operational radar band in the UK. This wavelength
change means that the radar suffers more from attenuation of the radar beam in very
heavy rain, but means that smaller radar antennas are required for the same beam
width. In the UK and Europe, the very heavy, attenuating rains are less frequent than in
the USA which is a major reason for the difference in radar wavelengths in these
respective regions. The advent of polarization radar occurred in the early 1950s [37].
Initially polarization was exploited with circular polarization, where promise was found
for suppressing clutter. Drop shapes were found to depolarize the returns to the radar,
leading to the development of the linear depolarization ratio. Seliga and Bringi (1976)
used the shapes, sizes and orientation of rain drops to show differential reflectivity gave
a measure of drop size, and when used in combination with Z has the potential to derive
more accurate rainfall rate estimates. To measure differential reflectivity Seliga and
Bringi (1976) suggested a radar design which utilized horizontally and vertically
polarized pulses, measuring the returns at both polarizations [37]. The CAMR radar in
1
Chilbolton was the first to implement this technique with alternate horizontally and
vertically polarized beams, then as now this radar operated at S-band.(note the
operational radar network in Britain uses C-band). Sachid (1987) suggested the use of
differential phase shift to improve rainfall estimation [37]. Meanwhile, operational radar
networks grew throughout the world at various frequencies, mostly operating at S-band
in America, but at C-band in Europe and Japan. Recent years have seen the
development and installation of the first polarization radars in the operational
environment.
CHAPTER 2
SCIENCE OF WEATHER RADAR
2.1 FUNDAMENTALS OF RADAR
2.1.1 Definition
RADAR stands for Radio Detecting And Ranging and as indicated by the name, it is
based on the use of radio waves. Radars send out electromagnetic waves similar to
wireless computer networks and mobile phones. The signals are sent out as short
pulses which may be reflected by objects in their path, in part reflecting back to the
radar. When these pulses intercept precipitation, part of the energy is scattered back to
the radar. This concept is similar to hearing an echo. For example, when you shout into
a well, the sound waves of your shout reflect off the water and back up to you. In that
same way, the pulse reflects off precipitation and sends a signal back to the radar. From
this information the radar is able to tell where the precipitation is occurring and how
much precipitation exists.
Primary Radar
A Primary Radar transmits high-frequency signals toward the targets. The transmitted
pulses are reflected by the target and then received by the same radar. The reflected
energy or the echoes are further processed to extract target information.
Secondary Radar
Secondary radar units work with active answer signals. In addition to primary radar, this
type of radar uses a transponder on the airborne target/object.
A simple block diagram of secondary radar is shown below
Pulsed Radar
Pulsed radar transmits high power, high-frequency pulses toward the target. Then it
waits for the echo of the transmitted signal for sometimes before it transmits a new
pulse. Choice of pulse repetition frequency decides the range and resolution of the
radar.
Target Range and bearings can be determined from the measured antenna position and
time-of-arrival of the reflected signal.
Pulse radars can be used to measure target velocities. Two broad categories of pulsed
radar employing Doppler shifts are
MTI (Moving Target Indicator) Radar
The MTI radar uses low pulse repetition frequency (PRF) to avoid range ambiguities,
but these radars can have Doppler ambiguities.
Pulse Doppler Radar
Contrary to MTI radar, pulse Doppler radar uses high PRF to avoid Doppler ambiguities,
but it can have numerous range ambiguities.
Doppler Radars make it possible to distinguish moving target in the presence of echoes
from the stationary objects. These radars compare the received echoes with those
received in previous sweep. The echoes from stationary objects will have same phase
and hence will be cancelled, while moving targets will have some phase change.
If the Doppler shifted echo coincides with any of the frequency components in the
frequency domain of the received signal, the radar will not be able to measure target
velocity. Such velocities are called blind speeds.
(2.1)
Where, f0 = radar operating frequency.
a. Un-modulated
An example of un-modulated CW radar is speed gauges used by the police. The
transmitted signal of this equipments is constant in amplitude and frequency. CW radar
transmitting un-modulated power can measure the speed only by using the Dopplereffect. It cannot measure a range and it cannot differ between two reflecting objects.
10
b. Modulated
Un-modulated CW radars have the disadvantage that they cannot measure range,
because run time measurements is not possible (and necessary) in un-modulated CWradars. This is achieved in modulated CW radars using the frequency shifting method.
In this method, a signal that constantly changes in frequency around a fixed reference is
used to detect stationary objects. Frequency is swept repeatedly between f1 and f2.
On examining the received reflected frequencies (and with the knowledge of the
transmitted frequency), range calculation can be done.
(2.2)
11
..(2.3) [36]
The effective area of the receiving antenna can be related to antenna gain
then equation (2.3) becomes:
Pr=
.(2.4)
However, for the meteorological target, such as rainfall the target is not a single
scattered; rather, the radar beam illuminates a volume containing a large group of
raindrops. Thus, the range gate defines the measurement volume V in terms of the
antenna beam widths (in orthogonal planes) and the transmit pulse length,
radar,
V=(
)(
)( ), m3..(2.5)
Within this volume, each raindrop backscatters some energy, and if we assume
raindrops are randomly distributed and do not interact (no multiple scattering), the total
backscattering cross section is the sum of the individual cross section of rain drops.
12
Thus, the backscattering cross section per unit volume is defined. It is also called radar
reflectivity,
m2m .
Since Rayleigh scattering applies, is related to the summation of the sixth power of
the diameters over a unit volume,
=10-10
(2.6)
Kw =
...(2.7)
Where n is the complex index of refraction of the droplet relative to the air background;
Taken n=8.87-j 0.628 at 3GHz from [10], |Kw|2 0.93 for liquid water.
in equation
[4] is the summation of the sixth power of all drop diameters per unit volume. It defines
the radar reflectivity factor Z, in unit of mm6m . We can rewrite radar reflectivity as,
=10-10
m2/m3
.(2.8)
= V , m2
Now we can replace the i in equation (1) with
back scattering from volume-distributed scattered as radar equation:
Pr= C|Kw|2
to
.(2.9)
where C is the radar constant depending on the characteristics of the radar. The use of
radar reflectivity factor Z is only valid for Rayleigh scattering and spherical raindrops,
but this is not always the case. Hence, it is common to replace Z with the effective radar
reflectivity factor Ze [7]. It is more appropriate to express the actual observed Pr as:
Pr= C|Kw|2
(2.10)
Ze has the same unit as Z (mm6m-3 ), but practical radar reflectivity may span several
orders of magnitude so, a logarithmic scale of Ze is introduced [3] and is expressed in
unit of dBZ.
13
dBZ=10 log10 (
).(2.11)
b. Precipitation Mode
When rain is occurring, the radar does not need to be as sensitive as in clear air mode
as rain provides plenty of returning signals. In Precipitation Mode, the radar products
update every 6 minutes.
further from the radar. Smaller wavelength radar beams attenuate more rapidly than
long wavelength radar.
d. Anomalous Propagation
When some special atmospheric conditions occur, such as sudden change in the air
density, the radar beam is likely to bend downwards and hit the ground. Therefore the
observed echoes are not real precipitation and are called radar clutters. It should be
noticed that not only anomalous propagation can cause clutters; they also appear when
side lobes hit ground objects at short range or stationary obstacles presence close to
the radar. For radar QPE, it is extremely important to remove spurious echoes, because
they can greatly damage the data quality.
e. Clutter
One type of interference that detracts from the performance of airborne weather radar is
ground clutter. Ground clutter of airborne weather radar is divided into the main lobe
clutter, side lobe clutter and altitude clutter .the main lobe clutter is the clutter that
generates when the main lobe of the radar antenna illuminate the ground. The side lobe
clutter is the clutter that generated when side lobe beam irradiate to the ground. The
altitude clutter is the clutter that generated when the side beams irradiation to the
ground along vertical direction.
There are several methods to eliminating ground clutter. The first is to improve antenna
designs to reduce side lobe in the ground direction. Asymmetrical reflector antennas are
often used, but the phased array antenna is inherently superior in side lobe reduction.
Another technique in the reduction of ground clutter is analysis of the Doppler shift of
the return signal. Knowing the aircraft altitude, ALG, and ground speed, the expected
Doppler shift of returns from the ground at specific ranges may be calculated.
Therefore, returns with Doppler shifts in this range may be eliminated as ground clutter.
f. Tilt
One of the least understood aspects of airborne weather radar is the subject of antenna
tilt. The display on the panel has a control that allows the pilot to tilt the antenna up or
down. This can be the most critical adjustment of all. The radar antenna platform up in
the nose is stabilized in the roll mode. The antenna platform is tied into the horizontal
gyro circuit so that the platform remains level in reference to the Earth's horizon as the
aircraft turns. Proper antenna tilt, when taking a read on a thunderstorm, makes the
difference between valuable information, and no information.
15
16
(a)
(b)
Figure 2.6: Weather Radar Signal Observation: (a) A Hexagonal Weather Radar
Network Using 4 Different Channels, (b) Simultaneous Observation of Mono and Bistatic Signals [3].
Figure 2.7(a) illustrates one example of X-band frequency allotment. If 15MHz of
bandwidth are used for very fine range resolution of 10 m, then nearly 12 channels will
be available at X-band. By combining four channels into one band, then three bands
become available. Such a band concept especially applies to frequency availability in a
particular region. Radar system structures can be constructed as shown in Fig. 2.7(b).
By the combination of LO1 frequencies (local oscillator 1) for band selection and LO2
(local oscillator 2) for channel selection, the desired channel signals are transmitted. In
the receiver, the band is already selected by sharing LO1 with the transmitter and the
channel is selected in the digital domain with IF under-sampling techniques. In
fact, not only mono- but bi-static information from adjacent channel signals can simply
be extracted by adequately changing frequency values during down-converting signal
processing. Such a concept has been experimentally verified with signal generation,
acquisition and channel selection in signal processing easily.
17
(b)
Figure 2.7: Radar Network Example in X-band: (a) Channel Allotment. (b) Radar
System Structure [2].
stood at eight, determined by the ratio of the chirp bandwidth and the sampling rate. For
pulse compression, correlation processing was performed using FFT (Fast Fourier
Transform) in the frequency domain. Complex conjugate values of the reference data,
19
Pr=
..(2.12)
Z0l =Z0
.(2.13)
C (dB)= 10log[
| |
(
] ...........(2.16)
20
(a)
(b)
Figure 2.9: Snow Detection [6]
Compared with other forms of precipitation, snow has the characteristics of relatively
low refractive index and it demonstrates low reflection. Short wavelength radar is more
advantageous in detecting snow. Despite being weak, we confirmed that radar was able
to detect snow signals from as far away as 1 km. Because of the distance between
antennas, low altitude observation area was smaller than observation with single
antenna system. Based on frequency analysis, velocity components of snow were
distributed at nearly zero. A middle rain event occurred weather radar may observe it by
following procedure [8]:
22
CHAPTER 3
DETECTION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS
3.1 DETECTION OF AIR VELOCITY
In addition to measurement of returned signal power from the targets, weather radar is
also capable of measuring the wind velocity by analyzing the Doppler frequency shift
which is introduced by the motion of air particles or the precipitation particles.
The amount of shift can be determined by comparing the frequency of the transmit
pulse with the frequency of the reflected pulse
Particles moving toward the radar are shifted to higher frequency
Particles moving away from the radar are shifted to lower frequency
23
..(3.1)
= phase-difference between the transmitted and the received signal
2r = the distance: the way and the way back
2 = 360: the period of an oscillation
= wavelength of the transmitted energy
If the aim has the radial speed,
( )
.(3.2)
( )
..(3.3)
.(3.4)
.(3.5)
24
This means, in practice the Doppler- frequency occurs twice at radar. Once on the way
from the radar to the aim, and then for the reflected (and already afflicted by a Dopplershift) energy on the way back.
In the radar signal processing the Doppler frequency will be divided by the actual
transmitted frequency to eliminate the influence of different transmitters frequencies.
Now the Doppler frequency is a measure of the radial speed only and is called
normalized.
Weather radar utilizes the Doppler capability of the NEXRAD radars to detect
storm circulations (e.g., tornados and hurricane spiral bands) as well as to
identify air flow boundaries created by storms (e.g., outflows and microbursts)
In cases when only one radar is available, the air motion that is detected is
relative to the location of the radar: radar meteorologists call this radial velocity.
flow toward the radar is called inbound and flow away from the radar is called
outbound.
By convention, velocities toward the radar (inbound) are negative and velocities
away from the radar (outbound) are positive.
to high altitudes well above the freezing level. Rain drops form rapidly through collision
and accretion with other droplets. Because these rain cells contain frozen precipitation
(above the freezing level where the air temperature is < 0 C), they are usually
associated with strong electrical activity and lightning; therefore they are commonly
called thunder storms, which are characterized by high spatial and temporal intensity
gradients. As opposed to the vertical development of convective rain, strati form rain is
formed from stably stratified clouds. Strati form clouds are horizontally widespread in
character, and its rain has extensive horizontal development. In strati form clouds,
precipitation grows in a widespread forced updraft of low magnitude. Raindrops form in
strati form clouds primarily by condensation. Because of a lack of a strong updraft to
keep droplets aloft, strati form rain falls out of the cloud with lower rain rate. Strati form
rain is more uniform in intensity and consists of relatively small raindrops. Although
most rain consists of a combination of the two, identifying the characteristics of rain help
the study of rain intensity and raindrop size distribution. Convective rain is generally
heavy due to large drop size and high rain intensity. Strati form rain is a gentle, long
lasting rain with no lightning. High reflectivity and reflectivity gradient separate the
convective rain from the strati form rain.
26
Figure 3.2: PDF of Marshal-Palmer DSDs with Diameter Interval 0.1 mm and 0.2mm
The raindrop size distribution has been studied by many investigators and generally
modeled as an exponential distribution. The most widely used DSD in scientific
literature is Marshall and Palmer [1], which is a special case of the exponential
distribution with two fitting parameters N0 and . Marshall-Palmer DSD is defined as:
N(D)=N0 e-D ,m-4 ..(3.6)
Where N0 = 8.10 m-4, D is the drop diameter in unit of meters and is the slope
parameter. It is related to rain rate R (mm/h) as:
27
R=
( )
( )
..(3.8)
Where v(D) represents the relationship between the raindrop terminal fall velocities in
still
air and the equivalent spherical raindrop diameter D (mm). An exponential expression of
fall speed to diameter relationship is derived:
28
Figure 3.3: PDF of Marshall-Palmer DSDs with Three Different Rain Rates
29
10
N(D)=Nwf()(D/D0) exp(-
f()=(
(
)
)
(
) (3.10)
(3.11)
30
Figure 3.5: Normalized Gamma Distribution, with Variations. For This Plot D0 is 1 m
and Nw is 8000m-3mm-1.
This drop spectrum only changes with rainfall rate, which would make converting
reflectivity to rainfall a trivial task (which leads to Z = 200R1.6). Unfortunately the
Marshall-Palmer drop spectrum does not represent the wide variation in drop spectra
found in nature, which lead to the introduction variation of drop concentration. A gamma
function for raindrops were suggested by Ulbrich (1983). However, variation in the
shape
parameter caused changes to the drop concentration required for the same rain
properties ,so a normalization was added.
By following the work of Bringi and Chandrasekar (2001), this leads to Z R
relationships of the form:
Z = aR1.5..(3.12)
with a dependent on Nw and . Integration of the suitably weighted normalized gamma
function produces the expression:
Z = Fz()Nw
(3.13)
31
R=FR() NwD04.67..(3.14)
& by removing DO this becomes:
= H() (
)1.5............................................(3.15)
Z=H()Nw-.5 R1.5 =
( )
.(3.16)
a=
( )
..(3.17)
So over the chosen region of data, if the drop spectrum can be characterized to
estimate Nw , it will be possible to derive the values of a in equation (3.12) (assuming a
value of ). Next consider the physical drop spectrum cause of variations in b. Initially
consider the case where Nw remains constant. Increased rainfall rate is caused simply
by an increase drop size D0 .Equation (3.13) shows Z varies as D07 and (3.14)
demonstrates R varies as D04.67 So, substituting into equation (3.12) gives b = 7/4.67 =
1.5. However, it is possible that Nw is a function of D0, and this possibility will result in
different values of b. Consider the case where Nw rises as D0 2 so as rainfall rates
increase there are both more and larger raindrops. This implies, via equations (3.13)
and (3.14) that Z and R vary as D09 and D06.67, leading to a b of 1.35. Now consider the
case where Nw varies as 1/Do, a case where as the drops get larger, their numbers
decrease, suggesting Z and R vary as D06 and D03.67 so b = 1.63. Now consider a more
extreme example. If, rather than Nw being constant, Do remains constant and as rainfall
rate increases it is a result of more drops of the same size, Z and R scale together with
Nw, so b = 1, Now consider the case with high aggregation of snowflakes leading to Nw
scaling with 1/D02 Now Z and R vary as D05 and D02.67 resulting in a, b of 1.87.
Varying a & b with the change of drop diameter D0, from equation (3.12)
Table 3.1: Weather Data of Dhaka, Bangladesh for April, 2014
No of equation
1
2
3
Drop
diameter(D0)
9-6.67
7-4.67
6-3.63
Varying a & b
a=190,b=1.62
a=289,b=1.5
a=244,b=1.35
32
Z R Relation
Z=190R1.62
Z=289R1.5
Z=244R1.35
From the above equation, we can determine the value of reflectivity on different value of
rainfall rate, R:
Date: 11-04-2014
R=25mm/h
Z1=34947.52
Date: 23-4-2014
R=14mm/h
Z2=8603
Date: 28-04-2014
R=11mm/h
Z3=10543
and a, b = constant
The changes in the coefficients of the Z-R relations for different rain events are different.
The coefficient a of the Z-R relation is higher for the convective stage followed by the
strati form and transition stages. The coefficient b values are higher for the transition
33
stage followed by the strati form and convective stages. So, depending on rain event or
rain type it is different in different region and season.
So, we see if we can measure the value of rainfall rate of a specific region for a season
and get the reflectivity from the radar which measured the rainfall rate then we will be
able to find the Z-R relationship ,in other word we will be able to find the value of a and
b for that specific region.
Consider a Doppler weather radar which has the below rainfall rate VS reflectivity chart,
Table 3.2: Reflectivity VS Rainfall Rate.
Reflectivity , Z (dBZ)
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Rainfall rate ,R
0.25
0.5
1
2.5
4
7
13
25
48
92
If this radar is used in Bangladesh then what will be the value of coefficient a and b can
be found easily if we collect the rainfall rate chart of a specific month of specific season.
We, know a whole year can be divided into four season (pre-monsoon, monsoon, postmonsoon and winter) which countries are lies under monsoon climate region. So,
Bangladesh can be divided into four seasons. In this thesis, we will take the data of
rainfall rate of pre-monsoon season of Bangladesh of 2011.
The data of rainfall rate is given below for pre monsoon period:
From the above data taking the value of the month of get the value of rainfall rate of
month of March 2011 Dhaka, Bangladesh.
35
Figure 3.8: Recorded Daily Average Rainfall Rate of March 2011 in Dhaka,
Bangladesh.
From this chart we get the daily rainfall rate data as follows:
Table 3.4: Rainfall Rate Data of March 2011 in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Day
Rainfall rate
Day
Rainfall rate
Day
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.25
0
0
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
0
3
0
0.25
1
0.75
0.25
0.25
0
0.25
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Rainfall
Rate
0.25
0
0
0
4
2.5
4
5
11
3
In month of March rainfall rate differs from 0 to 16 and the values are 0 , 0.25 ,0.5 , 0.75
, 1 , 2.5 ,3 , 4 , 5 , 16 from low to high .
36
There are total 7 types of Z-R relation is practiced all over the world and they are,
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
Z = 75 R2
Z = 300 R1.4
Z = 250 R1.2
Z =316 R1.6
Z=250 R1.5
Z= 32 R1.65
Z= 200 R1.
Now, for different Z-R relation we will find reflectivity for rainfall rate of March 2011 and
compare it with actual relation of Z-R that is given for specific radar. Which relation will
be identical or close to the actual relation, that should be practiced in Bangladesh for
that specific radar.
37
Reflectivity
0
4.68
18.75
42.18
75
468.75
675
1200
1875
19200
38
2) Z= 300 R^1.4
Table 3.6: Rainfall and Reflectivity Data of March 2011 in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Rainfall rate
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
2.5
3
4
5
16
reflectivity
0
43.07
113.67
200.54
300
1082.02
1396.7
2089.3
2855.5
14550.9
3) Z= 250 R^1.2
Table 3.7: Rainfall and Reflectivity Data of March 2011 in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Rainfall rate
reflectivity
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
2.5
3
4
5
16
0
47.4
108.82
177.02
250
750.7
924.3
1319.5
1724.7
6964.4
Base reflectivity
(dBZ)
0
16.76
20.37
22.48
23.98
28.75
29.704
31.204
32.367
38.43
39
4) Z= 316 R^1.6
Table 3.8: Rainfall and Reflectivity Data of March 2011 in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Rainfall rate
reflectivity
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
2.5
3
4
5
16
0
34.4
104.24
199.4
316
1368.93
1832.66
2903.9
4149.91
26685.7
Base reflectivity
(dBZ)
0
15.36
20.18
22.9
24.996
31.363
32.63
34.63
36.18
44.26
5) Z= 250 R^1.5
Table 3.9: Rainfall and Reflectivity Data of March 2011 in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Rainfall rate
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
2.5
3
4
5
16
reflectivity
0
31.25
88.38
162.4
250
988.2
1299.04
2000
2795.04
16000
40
6) Z= 32 R^1.65
Table 3.10: Rainfall and Reflectivity Data of March 2011 in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Rainfall rate
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
2.5
3
4
5
16
reflectivity
0
3.249
10.196
19.9
32
145.128
196.06
315.17
455.46
3104.19
7) Z= 200 R^1.6
Table 3.11: Rainfall and Reflectivity Data of March 2011 in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Rainfall rate
Reflectivity
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
2.5
3
4
5
16
0
21.76
65.98
126.21
200
866.44
1160
1838
2626.53
16889.7
Base reflectivity
(dBZ)
0
13.37
18.19
21.09
23.01
29.38
30.64
32.64
34.193
42.28
41
From these values we can draw reflectivity VS rainfall rate graph and comparing with
these curves with given Z-R value curve we can assume the relation of Z-R that can be
performed in Bangladesh for that specific radar.
42
Figure 3.10: Comparison between Different Z-R Relation with Specific Z-R Relation for
a Specific Radar in Specific Region.
43
Date
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Rainfall rate
12
3
2
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
Date
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Rainfall rate
1
0
0
4
0
4.5
0
4
3
5
Date
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Rainfall rate
8
0
0
7
6
4.5
9
17
2
2
From the rainfall rate data we see in April 2011 rainfall rate varies from 0 to 17.
44
Now finding the reflectivity from rainfall rate we get the chart which has given below:
Table 3.13: Rainfall Rate VS Reflectivity of April 2011 in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Rainfall rate
0
1
2
3
4
4.5
5
6
7
8
9
12
17
Reflectivity
0
200
606.29
1159.909
1837.9
2219.065
2626.52
3516.19
4499.734
5571.523
6726.94
10659.08
18610.081
Base reflectivity
0
23.01
27.83
30.64
32.64
33.46
34.19
35.46
36.59
37.45
38.28
40.28
42.69
Figure 3.12: Z-R Relation Comparison from Z=200 R^1.6 and given Chart
45
From, the above graph we see reflectivity VS the rainfall rate of month of April 2011
from Z= 200 R^1.6 relationship is almost identical to the Z-R chart of that specific radar
is almost identical.
So, we can say if this radar is used in Dhaka then Z-R relationship for pre-monsoon
period is Z=200 R^1.6.
Figure 3.13: Z-R Comparison for Two Different Result of Reflectivity That We
Get From given Chart of That Radar and from Z=200 R^1.6.
46
We see from here they are not identical, series 2 distorted in few places with series 1
which is the Z-R relationship of the specific radar.
Taking two points for the reflectivity and rainfall rate
When, R= 16, dBZ = 41.99 and Z=15839.127
And
When R = 4, dBZ= 33.4 and Z= 2190.47
We know, Z= a R^b
log Z = log a + b log R
Substituting the values of Z and R we get two equations,
log (15839.127) = log a + b log 16
4.2 = log a + 1.2 b(3.18)
and
log (2190.47) = log a + b log 16
3.34 = log a + 0.699 b..(3.19)
By solving this two equation (3.18) and (3.19) we get the value of a and b
Where a= 142 and b= 1.7
So, the new equation will be Z = 142 R1.7
47
Pr = (C |K|2 Z) /r2
Where, we have the radar constant, C and the radar reflectivity factor, Z.
From this equation, we see if reflectivity is measured somehow then for a specific
distance reception power can be measured.
Lets consider a radar where r = 200km,
|K|2= 0.93 (as we are considering rain)
Radar constant C= 1670 X 10-10 Wm2
Now we will measure the reception power from the reflectivity that is get from the rainfall
rate of March 2011 Dhaka, Bangladesh.
We get the below chart of rainfall VS reflectivity of the month of March,
Table 3.14: Rainfall Rate VS Reflectivity of March 2011 in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Rainfall rate
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
2.5
3
4
5
16
Reflectivity
0
21.76
65.98
126.21
200
866.44
1160
1838
2626.53
16889.7
Z=866.44, Pr = 672.83 pW
Z=1160, Pr = 900 pW
Z= 1838, Pr = 1427 pW
Z=2626.53, Pr = 2039.63 pW
Z= 16889.7, Pr = 13115.69 pW
From this values we get the chart of rainfall VS reception power and plotting in a graph
get the relationship between them,
Table 3.15: Rainfall Rate VS Reception Power Chart
Rainfall rate
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
2.5
3
4
5
16
50
Thus from this value of reception power for specific rainfall rate, radar can be calibrated
to decrease the rainfall rate assumption error and give improved weather forecast.
( )| ( )|
) (
. (3.21)
51
Where, n(D) dD is the number concentration of particles with diameter between D and
D+Dd , |K|2 is the dielectric factor (proportional to particle density squared), and is the
Mie-to-Rayleigh backscatter ratio. In reality, ice particles are not spheres and a simple
density relationship will not be strictly applicable to all of the particles in a radar sample
volume, and so we generalize this formula to a summation over a volume V of particles
of arbitrary habit:
Z=
| |
(3.22)
Where mj is the mass of particle j, i is the density of solid ice and |Ki|2 is the dielectric
factor of solid ice (with the value 0.174 at all radar frequencies). The i factor is now the
ratio of the actual backscattering cross section to that predicted by Rayleigh theory and,
in principle, could be calculated using a method other than Mie theory. In the Rayleighscattering limit it is more convenient to consider Z as simply proportional to mass
squared as in (2) than to use (1) and to have to work with the concepts of diameter
and density, which are ill defined for arbitrarily shaped particles. In the geometric
optics approximation the visible extinction coefficient is simply 2 times the integrated
particle cross-sectional area A per unit volume. Thus, IWC and may be expressed as
summations over all particles in a volume V:
ICW=
..(3.23)
....(3.24)
Evaluating above equation 3.21, 3.22 & 3.23 Scientists estimate a co-relation between
temperature & Radar Reflectivity for different frequencies.
Formulas for radar reflectivity factor Z (dBZ) from deriving IWC (g m-3) and temperature
(C) for three different radar frequencies:
At 3 GHZ frequency:
Log10(IWC) = 0.060Z - 0.0197T 1.70
Table 3.16: Temperature, Reflectivity and Corresponding ICW Data
Date
05-09-2014
06-09-2014
07-09-2014
08-09-2014
09-09-2014
Temperature (T)oC
-31
-30
-28
-29
-31
Reflectivity(Z) dBZ
15.65
28.30
29.41
55.23
71.12
52
ICW (gm-3_)
0.11
0.39
0.45
0.67
0.82
Figure 3.16: Graphical Representation between ICW (Ice Water Content) and
Reflectivity
At 35 GHZ frequency:
Log10(IWC)= (0.000242)ZT -0.0699Z - 0.0186T -1.63
Table 3.17: Temperature, Reflectivity and corresponding ICW data
Date
05-09-2014
06-09-2014
07-09-2014
08-09-2014
09-09-2014
Temperature (T)oC
-31
-30
-28
-29
-31
53
ICW(gm-3)
0.11
0.39
0.45
0.67
0.82
Figure 3.17: Graphical Representation between ICW (Ice water content) and
Reflectivity
At 94 GHZ frequency:
Log10(IWC)= (0.000580)ZT - 0.0923Z- (0.007 06)T - 0.992
Table 3.18: Temperature, Reflectivity and Corresponding ICW Data
Date
05-09-2014
06-09-2014
07-09-2014
08-09-2014
09-09-2014
Temperature (T)oC
-31
-30
-28
-29
-31
Reflectivity (Z)dBZ
20.72
28.9
29.9
32.5
33.8
54
ICW(gm-3)
0.11
0.39
0.45
0.67
0.82
Figure 3.18: Graphical Representation between ICW (Ice water content) and
Reflectivity
From the data table, it may clear that ICW Z (Reflectivity).But in case of lower value
of ICW Reflectivity may negative.
For a Rayleigh scattering radar,
ICW N0b/(2b+1)Z(b+1)/(2b+1)(3.25)
Mitchell (1996) found that for common particle habits b ranges between 1.8 and 2.3; so
we should find that for a given temperature the Z exponent lies in the narrow range of
0.590.61.Calibrating equation (4) & eliminating NO from ICW & Z relation to obtain,
IWC D0-b Z
..(3.26)
55
Figure 3.19: Ice Water Content VS Reflectivity Factor for a Rayleigh Scattering
Radar [16].
56
dBZS dBZKa = 10
.............................. (3.28)
57
From that Equation difference between s-band & k-band reflectivity is 40 dB for
maximum detectable signal from different reflectivity we can determine the value of A g.
From Bangladesh metrological center different value of reflectivity currently this
determination is made manually, however, the process is straightforward and can be
automated.
Table 3.19: Specific Humidity and Gaseous Attenuation Data
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
Scatter plot of specific humidity (+ symbols, g m-3) versus one-way attenuation (dB
km-1) computed from the Liebe (1985) radioactive transfer model for the conditions at
RICO, overlaid with the third order polynomial fit curve (solid line).The third order
polynomial best fit resulting from the conditions at Refract is plotted as the dashed line.
58
PPI plots of k-band and S- band reflectivity values (left and right panels, respectively).
The arrows are meant to illustrate two methods of creating secondary rays for
attenuation estimation.
59
VN =
.(3.29)
Where is the radars wave length & f is the pulse repetition frequency (PRF).Here is
fixed 10 cm so unambiguous velocity depends on PRF, If velocity increases then PRF
also increases .There is an optimum relation between VN & The range that radar can
observe since RN is related to VN by,
RN=
..(3.30)
Where c is the speed of light,thus a large PRF yields a large ambiguous velocity but
reduces the range at which the radar provides reliable information.
Assumptions are needed to calculate the total surface wind from a single radars radial
velocities. knowing the direction of the winds relative to the tropical cyclones center is
significant when determining wind speeds from observed radial velocity data. we initially
assumed that winds are oriented 90 degrees counter-clockwise from the radial vector,
producing cyclonic tangential winds along a constant radius from the center of the eye.
The translational speed associated with the progression of the tropical cyclone is
neglected for initial diagnosis of this algorithm. Figure 3.22 illustrates this wind field for a
generic tropical cyclone.
60
Figure 3.22: Schematic Diagram of the Procedure Used to Calculate the Total Wind
from Radial Velocities
The next step was to calculate at each grid point the angular difference , between the
radar beam & the direction that is less than or equal to 90 degrees, theta is easily
determined figure 3.23 since the azimuthal angle of the radar beam (providing angle
),the radial velocity & the assumed wind direction are known. considering the right side
of figure, the solution for the total wind speed becomes:
VTOTAL=
(3.31)
Where, VTOTAL is the total wind speed & VREDIAL is the redial wind speed.
61
Figure 3.23: Schematic Describing the Calculation of the Total Wind, the Blue Arrow
Denotes the Radar Beam & the Red Arrow Total Wind Vector.
45
30
20
VTOTAL
30
28.28
28.26
VR
15
20
25
Monin- Obukhov similarity theory was applied to reduce the winds of the surface
according to:
V10=VZ{log(H10/Z0)/log(HZ/Z0)} (3.32)
Where V10 is the wind speed at 10m.VZ is the wind speed at the top of the boundary
layer, HZ is the height of the boundary layer, z0 is the surface roughness length. The
reduction rate depends greatly of the roughness length. The greater the z0 more the
wind is reduced at the surface.
62
63
CHAPTER 4
CONCLUSION
4.1 CONCLUDING REMARKS
This thesis work was aimed at finding out different weather parameters by analyzing the
echo signals coming from meteorological targets against the transmitted signals. Using
Doppler weather radar as the core, this thesis paper explained the correlation between
different meteorological conditions and showed the related mathematical expressions.
Measurement of reflectivity from rainfall rate was shown using different formulas and
plotted on graph for easy convenience. Calculated reflectivity VS rainfall rate chart was
considered for a specific period of time and from there the values of constants a and b
from the formula Z= aRb was found out. The values of a and b were also found out in
another way by substitution method where, in the Z-R equation different values of Z and
R were substituted to measure the values of a and b.
The relation between different weather conditions was established from the measured
reflectivity along with the constant values a and b.
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