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FAILURE PROBABILITY OF DETERIORATING REINFORCED

CONCRETE BEAMS
Failure probability of reinforced concrete beams
B. TEPL, D. NOVK, Z. KERNER and W. LAWANWISUT
Technical University of Brno, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Institute of Structural
Mechanics, Brno, Czech Republic

Durability of Building Materials and Components 8. (1999) Edited by M.A. Lacasse


and D.J. Vanier. Institute for Research in Construction, Ottawa ON, K1A 0R6,
Canada, pp. 1357-1366.
National Research Council Canada 1999

Abstract
For a specific reinforced concrete beam the depassivation of reinforcement is assessed
and a consequent corrosion process in time is evaluated using the available numerical
models. The cross-section of a beam is analyzed using the layer approach. Division
into layers enables us the efficient modelling of the carbonation process and the
consequent corrosion of reinforcement. The influence of deterioration on failure
probability is assessed.
Keywords: Bayesian updating, carbonation of concrete, corrosion of reinforcement,
deterioration, failure probability, importance sampling, reliability

Introduction

The deterioration caused by aggressive environment may have a significant


impact on safety and serviceability of reinforced concrete (RC) structures. The
important degradation processes are the carbonation of concrete, the ingress of
chloride ions (both these effects cause the depassivation of reinforcement) and the
corrosion of reinforcement. Such time-dependent processes are governed by many
uncertainties - random parameters. Consequently, by these stressors the strength and
stiffness of RC members can be considerably decreased. Therefore it is important to
develop a suitable tool for the prediction of such processes and to utilize them while
investigating the reliability or the repair strategy of structural members.
The problem of deteriorating RC beams have gained recently a strong attention
of several researchers, Lee et al. (1996, 1998): A nonlinear finite element (NL-FE)

solution of a simple RC structure with the rebar corrosion effect is investigated by a


deterministic approach. The deterioration is considered to be mainly due to the degree
of corrosion and a consequent decrease of steel yield point and bond performance.
Constitutive laws for these effects are based on experiments (which unfortunately
cannot be generalized). Boer and Veen (1998) also presented a NL-FE approach, once
again deterministic. No models for material deterioration were involved - the crack
analysis of concrete and the reduction of the bar diameter are not explained in detail.
Stewart and Rosowsky (1998) has developed an advanced approach taking into
account the random nature of parameters involved and have presented a preliminary
probabilistic framework for a time-dependent life cycle analysis for bridge slabs. The
reduction of cross-sectional areas of steel bars and both the transverse and longitudinal
cracking of concrete were taken into account.
The present paper describes a probabilistic approach for the reliability
investigation and the life-time prediction of simply supported RC beams including
deterioration in time. Only the ultimate limit state is controlled and the depassivation
of reinforcing rebars is supposed to be caused by the carbonation of concrete. The
presence of chloride ions (Cl-) is excluded in this case. The physical, chemical,
technological and environmental characteristics are considered to be random variables
within the framework of a fully probabilistic approach.
If the bending action prevails and the attention is paid to the ultimate limit state
of simply supported beams only, the limit state function may be represented by
comparing the ultimate bending moment (resistance) and load action in one crosssection. First, the carbonation depth as a main factor influencing the initiation of
corrosion of reinforcement bars is treated more precisely using the so-called Bayesian
updating method based on short-term in-situ measurements (measured carbonation
depth statistics).
Secondly the appropriate advanced simulation techniques
(importance sampling) are used for the probabilistic prediction of deterioration in time
measured by the theoretical probability of failure pf. Using pf -time curves and
isoprobability curves the residual life-time of the structure can be predicted.

Deterioration processes of reinforced concrete

2.1

Carbonation of concrete
The model of time-dependent carbonation depth xc of ordinary Portland cement
(OPC) concrete by Papadakis et al. (1992) is used. This computational model is based
on the mass conservation of CO2, Ca(OH)2 and CSH (hydrated calcium silicate) in any
control volume of the concrete mass. The simplified carbonation depth formula for
OPC concrete is expressed here as:
w

0.3
f ( RH )
xc = 0.35 c c

w
1 + c
1000 c

1 + c w + c a cCO 22.410 6 t
1000 c c 2 44

(1)

where xc is the carbonation depth (mm) for time t (years), c, a are the mass density
(kg/m3) of cement and aggregates, resp., w/c, a/c are the water/cement,
aggregate/cement ratio, resp., RH is the ambient relative humidity, cCO2 is CO2 content
in atmosphere (mg/m3), a is the aggregate unit content. In the original formulation
(Papadakis et al. 1992) the model for high values of RH does not provide satisfactory
results. This has been overcome by implementing the step-wise linear relationship
f(RH) extracted from experiments reported by Matouek (1997), see also Novk et al.
(1996).
A total of 11 variables (see details in Table 1) are involved in this model, and in
some cases not all appropriate information is available. Therefore, a simpler model
may be useful. For this purpose the model by Bob (1996) seems to be appropriate:
xc = 150

Ckd

(2)

fc

where xc is the average depth of carbonation (or chloride penetration) (mm), fc is


concrete compressive strength (MPa), t is time of CO2 or/and Cl- action (years), C is
the coefficient of cement type, k introduces the influence of humidity (environmental
conditions) and d is coefficient for CO2 content. Both models were randomized and
compared - see Kerner et al. (1996). In these forms the models are utilized in the
present paper. The purpose of modelling the carbonation depth is basically to calculate
the time at which depth xc reaches the concrete cover c (initiation time Ti).
2.2

Corrosion of reinforcement
An accurate and reasonably general computational model for corrosion of
depassivated steel bars embedded in concrete is still missing. Note that both the
uniform and pitting type of corrosion should be modelled. Presently the models used
e.g. by Andrade et al. (1996); Rodriguez et al. (1996) and Stewart and Rosowsky
(1998) seems to be sufficient for the prediction of uniform corrosion. The formula for
the time related rebar diameter decrease is as follows:
Di

D (t ) = Di 0.116icorr (t Ti )
0

t Ti

Ti < t Ti + ( Di / 0.116icorr )

(3)

t > Ti + ( Di / 0.116icorr )

where Di is the initial bar diameter (mm), Ti is the time to initiation (years) (i.e.
depassivation) and icorr is the current density (normally expressed in A/cm2).
Parameter expresses the type of corrosion. For homogenous corrosion is equal 2,
however, when a localized corrosion (pitting) occurs may reach values up to 8 (see
Rodriguez et al. 1996).

Computational model

3.1

Nonlinear analysis
The codes give approximate expressions for computing the ultimate flexural
resistance of reinforced concrete sections. In order to make the computation more
accurate a simple method that satisfies equilibrium and compatibility is utilized. The
reinforced concrete section is divided into layers, each layer is considered to be in a
state of uniaxial tension or compression. Maximum strains are considered initially,
then stresses in layers (both concrete and reinforcement) are computed using the
idealized stress-strain diagrams given in Fig. 1. By iterative algorithm equilibrium is
checked resulting in an ultimate bending moment Mu. This layered approach is also
suitable for modelling the deterioration.

fy

s
c
a)
Fig. 1: Stress-strain diagrams: a) concrete; b) reinforcing steel.

b)

3.2

Limit state function


For a reliability analysis a function g(X) of basic random variables X = X1, X2,...,
Xm is defined comparing ultimate bending moment Mu (resistance) with load bending
moment M (action of load). Limit state function is then given as:
g(X,t) = Mu(X,t) M

(4)

and is a function of time t, model uncertainty factor and m random variables. Note
that the decrease of Mu(X,t) is strong when t > Ti. A beam is considered to be safe if:
g(X,t) > 0

(5)

For the purpose of the present study the load action M is taken as a deterministic
value. This arrangement enables us to predict the structural life-time of deteriorating
structure for a prescribed load level.

Reliability analysis

The material of concrete and reinforcing steel deteriorate in time and


consequently the ultimate bending moment decreases. The goal is to quantify the
influence of deterioration on the reliability. The failure probability is defined as:

pf = P(g(X,t) 0)

(6)

and can be evaluated at several time points ti (i = 1, 2,..., n). The increase of failure
probability in time can be estimated here by advanced simulation techniques e.g.
importance sampling (Bourgund and Bucher, 1986).

Numerical example case study

5.1

General remarks
A particular storage building structure is composed of prefabricated RC units.
The study is focused on the roof beam where the carbonation depth was investigated
in-situ in several positions (the age being 11 years). The cross-section of the beam is
shown in Fig. 2.
B1=0.30 m
H1=0.15 m
H=1.25 m

B2=0.15 m
Fig. 2: Critical cross-section with reinforcing bars.
5.2

Random variables
In-situ investigation also provided other values of several input variables and
their statistical parameters; some other parameters were gained by engineering
judgement. All of them are summarized in Table 1.
5.3

Results of parametric study


The approach described above was used and the results of the probabilistic
analysis are as follows:
The probability of failure is obviously increasing in the course of time due to
corrosion of reinforcement. This effect can be observed in Fig. 3 for different levels of
load (where the pf - time curves are shown). Similar results are depicted in a different
way by the mean of the isoprobabilities (i.e. curves of constant probability) - see
Fig. 4. The pf -time curves or the isoprobabilities can be used for the structural lifetime (L) prediction. It could be observed in Fig. 4 e.g. for M =550 kNm: If the
admissible pf would be 10-5 then L 75 years; for pf = 10-6 L 25 years only.
The in-situ measurements of carbonation depth xc after 11 years of the utilization
of the building were performed. The results of the mean value of 6 mm and standard

deviation of 1.2 mm were obtained, and the Bayesian updating (see e.g. Novk et al.
1996) of the xc evaluation in time could be assessed. Based on this new xc-t function
also an updated pf -t curve could be computed. The comparison of a prior and posterior
pf -time curves is shown in Fig. 5, the latter curve being more accurate as the utilization
of in-situ measurements takes into account the effect of local conditions. This cannot
be accounted for by a general analytical model itself. Such updated pf -time curves
make it possible to gain a more reliable prediction of the structural life-time.
Table 1: Basic random variables.
Variable

Symb.

Unit

Mean

COV
(%)
0.1
0.15

PDF

1
N

3
mg/m
800
N
cCO2
Relative humidity
RH
0.85
0.1
N
Unit content of cement
c
kg
291
0.02
LN
Unit content of water
w
kg
189
0.01
LN
Unit content of sand
kg
853
0.015
LN

Unit content of gravel 4-8 mm size g4-8


kg
382
0.015
LN
Unit content of gravel 8-16
g8-16
kg
630
0.015
LN
Mass density of cement
kg/m3
3100 0.015
N
c
3
Mass density of sand
kg/m
2590
0.02
N
s
3
Mass density of gravel 4-8
kg/m
2540
0.02
N
g4-8
3
2660
0.02
N
Mass density of gravel 8-16
g8-16 kg/m
Concrete cover
cc
mm
20.2
0.2
N
Diameter of steel
Di
mm
22
0.05
LN
Height of cross-section
H
m
1.25
0.02
N
Top flange depth
H1
m
0.15
0.02
N
Top flange width
B1
m
0.3
0.02
N
Web thickness
B2
m
0.15
0.02
N
Strength of concrete in compression fc
MPa
54.1
0.15
LN
Strength of concrete in tension
Rbt
MPa
3.1
0.25
LN
Strength of steel
Rs
MPa
410
0.05
LN
Modulus of elasticity for steel
Es
GPa
210
0.03
N
Modulus of elasticity for concrete
Eb
GPa
23
0.05
N
Type of cement
C
1.4
0.247 U <0.8; 2>
Influence of humidity
k
0.65
0.311 U <0.3; 1>
Influence of CO2 content
d
1.5
0.192 U <1; 2>
Current density
icorr A/cm2
1.5
0.33
U <1; 2>
Remarks: N...Normal, LN...Lognormal and U...Uniform on interval <Xlower ; Xupper>
Uncertainty factor of model
Ambient CO2 content

In Fig. 5 a) homogenous corrosion is treated and updated values of carbonation


depth (smaller values) decreased the failure probability to the level of the failure
probability for zero time. For pitting corrosion, this decrease to zero time level works
approximately up to 40 years, then there is an increase of the failure probability (but of
lower values), see Fig. 5 b). It has to be realized that we start from time zero where a
failure probability exists (10-5) and this failure probability is the result of the random

variability of geometrical and material characteristics only. Also the influence of two
different models for the carbonation process was studied. The curves in Fig. 6 indicate
only negligible effects in this particular beam. A more serious degradation effect is the
pitting corrosion. Using the same approach also the influence of a type of corrosion on
the probability of failure was studied - as it can be observed in Fig. 7. The results are
only indicative as the pitting process is strongly uncertain and is often started due to
the chlorides attack.
80
1E
70

1E
1E

60

1E
1E
1E

50 0

25

50

75

100

Time (years)

Fig. 3: Failure probability vs. time for different levels of bending moments
(carbonation model by Papadakis and homogenous corrosion)

Failure probability (-) .

1.E-02
1.E-03
1.E-04
1.E-05
1.E-06
1.E-07
500 kNm

600 kNm

700 kNm

1.E-08
0

25

50

75

Time (years)

Fig. 4: Isoprobabilities (Papadakis, homogenous corrosion)

100

1.E-03

Failure probability (-)--

Prior

Posterior

1.E-04

1.E-05

a)
1.E-06
0

20

1.E-01

60

80

100

Time (years)
Prior

Failure probability (-)..

40

Posterior

1.E-02
1.E-03
1.E-04
1.E-05

b)
1.E-06
0

20

40

60

80

100

Time (years)
Fig. 5: Bayesian updating of pf (carbonation model by Papadakis and M= 600
kNm): a) homogenous corrosion; b) pitting corrosion
6

Conclusions

The influence of the degradation process on reliability is modelled and shown in


a quantitative probabilistic way - failure probability vs. time.
The approach described above may conveniently serve for the assessment of the
residual life of a RC structure taking into account the degradation due to
carbonation of concrete and corrosion of steel reinforcement.

1.E-03
Papadakis

Bob

1.E-04

1.E-05

1.E-06
0

25

50

75

100

Time (years)
Fig. 6: Influence of carbonation model (homogenous corrosion and M= 600 kNm)

1.E-01
Pitting

Homogenous

1.E-02
1.E-03
1.E-04
1.E-05
1.E-06
0

25

50

75

100

Time (years)
Fig. 7: Influence of type of corrosion - homogenous (
= 2) and pitting (
= 6)
(carbonation model by Papadakis and M=600 kNm)

Utilizing the Bayesian updating procedure and site-oriented measurements the


predictions of degradation processes and the evaluation of their impact on the
reliability measure are more effective. The local conditions are accounted for.
The approach is rather general and different models and other degradation
processes may be incorporated.

Acknowledgement

The research was funded under grant No. 103/97/K003 from the Grant Agency of
the Czech Republic. The authors thank for this funding.

References

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- Tensioned Tendons in Contact with Chlorides. Durability of Building Materials
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