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BBCNewsWhatisclimatechange?

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Sixgraphicsthatexplainclimate
change

FindouthowandwhytheEarthsclimateischangingasParishostsamajorsummitto
discussglobalwarming.

1.Whatistheproblem?
Theworldisgettingwarmer
TheaveragetemperatureoftheEarth'ssurfacehasincreasedbyabout0.85C(1.4F)in
thelast100years.Thirteenofthe14warmestyearswererecordedinthe21stCentury,
with2015oncoursetosetanotherrecord.
Howyearscomparewiththe20thCenturyaverage

2015 issettobethewarmestyearonrecord
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10warmestyears
10coldestyears
+1.0
+0.8
+0.6
+0.4
+0.2
20thCentury
average
temperature
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8

Months
REPLAY

Source:NOAA

2.Whyisthishappening?
Greenhousegases,mainlycarbondioxide
Scientistsbelievethatgasesreleasedfromindustryandagriculture(knownasemissions)
areaddingtothenaturalgreenhouseeffect,thewaytheEarth'satmospheretrapssomeof
theenergyfromtheSun.
Humanactivitiessuchasburningfossilfuelslikecoal,oilandnaturalgasareincreasing
theamountofcarbondioxide(CO2),themaingreenhousegasresponsibleforglobal
warming.Carbonabsorbingforestsarealsobeingcutdown.
TheconcentrationofCO2intheatmosphereisnowhigherthanatanytimeinthelast
800,000yearsandreachedarecordhighinMaythisyear.
MonthlyaverageCO2concentration(partspermillion)

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410
400
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

2015

ScrippsCO2Program,datafromtheMaunaLoaObservatory

3.Whataretheeffects?
Arcticseaicemelt
Highertemperatures,extremeweathereventsandhighersealevelsarealllinkedtoa
warmingclimateandcouldhaveadrasticeffectontheworldsregions.
Since1900,sealevelshaverisenbyonaverageabout19cmglobally.Therateofsealevel
risehasacceleratedinrecentdecades,placinganumberofislandsandlowlyingcountries
atrisk.
Theretreatofpolaricesheetsisanimportantcontributortothisrise.
Arcticseaiceisalsoshrinkingbecauseofhighertemperatures,thoughitmakeslittle
contributiontoraisedsealevels.
Anareaofseaiceroughly10timesthesizeoftheUKhasbeenlostwhenthecurrent
dayiscomparedwithaveragelevelsfromtheearly1980s.

Seaiceextent
(minimum)
Median
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(19812010)

Arcticseaicemin.extent:1980,7.8
millionsqkm.2015,4.6millionsqkm

2015

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Source:NationalSnowandIceDataCenter

4.Whatdoesthefuturehold?
Highertemperaturesandmoreextremeweather
Thescaleofpotentialimpactsisuncertain.
Thechangescoulddriveshortagesinfreshwater,bringaboutmajorchangesinfood
productionconditionsandcauseariseinthenumberofcasualtiesfromfloods,storms,
heatwavesanddroughts.
Thisisbecauseclimatechangeisexpectedtoincreasethefrequencyofextremeweather
eventshoweverlinkinganysingleeventtoglobalwarmingiscomplicated.

Projectedtemperaturechange(19862005to20812100)
Ifgreenhousegasemissionspeakbetween20102020andthendeclinesubstantially
(RCP2.6)

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Ifgreenhousegasemissionscontinuetorisethroughoutthe21stcentury(RCP8.5)

Source:InternationalPanelonClimateChangeFifthAssessmentReport(AR5)

5.Whatcanbedone?
Worldstoptengreenhousegasemitters
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Thetop10greenhousegasemittersmakeupover70%oftotalemissions

CHINA 24%

USA 12%

EU 9%

INDIA 6%

BRAZIL 6%
RUSSIA 5%
JAPAN 3%
CANADA 2%
DRCONGO 1.5%
INDONESIA 1.5%
Source:CarbonBrief,figuresarefor2012

6.Limitingthedamage
BytheendofOctober,146countrieshadsubmittednationalclimateplansoncurbing
emissionsthatareexpectedtoformthecornerstoneofabinding,globaltreatyonclimate
change.
AccordingtoaUNreport,submissionsintheircurrentformpointtoariseof2.7Cabove
preindustriallevelsby2100.
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Scientistshavedeterminedthatiftemperaturerisessurpass2C,thiswillleadto
substantialanddangerousclimateimpacts,whichwillhittheworld'spoorinparticular.

Averagewarming(C)projectedby2100
2C
Ifcountries
donotact

4.5

Following
current
policies
Basedon
Paris
pledges

3.6
2.7

Source:ClimateActionTracker,datacompiledby
ClimateAnalytics,ECOFYS,NewClimateInstitute
andPotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch.

Credits
DesignbyEmilyMaguireandTomNurse,developmentbyStevenConnor
andPunitShah.WrittenandproducedbyNassosStylianou,PaulRincon
andJohnWalton.

Sharethisstoryaboutsharing

UNclimateconference30Nov11Dec2015
Invideo:WhydoestheParisconferencematter?
Analysis:LatestfromBBCenvironmentcorrespondentMattMcGrath
More:BBCNewsclimatechangespecialreport
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