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Alpha is an Option
We believe options
are a greatly
misunderstood
investment tool.
We can deviate from the trend but it will cost us in a variety of risk management Wave of new
ways - time, leverage, rate at which capital is employed, etc. The asymmetric managers with
strategies are then expressed through the use of optimized option strategies, new nimble,
leverage, market timing, and rigorous risk management. It's through our use of thoughtful
options that we are able to have strong hands and weather whatever storms that may innovative ideas
occur in the bond, currency, commodity and equity markets. While others may
will lead.
refrain from certain markets, it's our ability to design strategies that conform to
whatever environment that exists at the current time that sets us apart from other Astute investors
managers. We can go where others fear to tread. The unique characteristics of
who see the
options allow us to feel safe and confident even in extremely volatile markets.
benefit of such
We have an absolute return focus that is active, dynamic and protective of its programs will
investors' capital. While, the asymmetric option strategies limit the downside they want to establish a
do allow for unlimited upside gains. This combination of smaller losses and bigger
long-term working
gains then allows for better and faster compounding of returns so that our investors
can achieve their long-term goals and objectives.
relationship.
In addition, our asymmetric investment process can be custom tailored to individual Seed the promising
risk preferences. Overall, we believe this strategy is flexible and robust as it can new managers
handle a variety of economic cycles and market environments. Large gains can laying the
come about because of the underlying moves and the leverage the option carries. In foundation for the
addition, this is an investment that can be maintained even during retirement as it
new era.
provides equity like returns with the risk of bond.
Think outside the
See additional material carrying the Barry Ritholtz article on missing the best and
the worst days of the market and its impact to your returns. box and look for
the most robust
strategies given
any environment
Our experience and education can be put to work on behalf of your portfolio in a logical way, while still
keeping alert for the illogical factors that influence not only investors' actions, but market prices as well.
By paying attention, learning the theories, understanding the realities and applying the lessons we've
learned, we can make the most of the knowledge that surrounds both traditional financial theory and
behavioral finance.
Research from psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman show investors feel that the
pain of losses are twice as powerful as the benefits of gains. Sure, investors want returns, but
they also want to minimize losses. We see investors moving away from asset allocation and
benchmarks and instead moving toward outcomes that work.
What we saw in prior years was style-box investing, with an allocation framework built around
an investors market and risk expectationsnot liabilities, risk tolerance or funding objectives.
These objectives did not correlate with investors actual goals or maximize the probability of
reaching a stated objective. So, what is occurring?
I believe a paradigm shift is occurring to the investment industry. First there was the dot-com
collapse, bringing a painful end to the go-go 1990s, with technology stocks hit particularly hard.
It took more than 15 years for the Nasdaq Composite Index to recover to a new high. Currently,
I then improved on those lessons over the years as my career progressed and as I added more tools to my
arsenal. Basically the system was designed because most of the institutions that I worked at had limited
risk appetites and limited trade flows in which to take advantage. The system helped me to understand the
market's psychological impediments as well as the global macro events that drove markets. In this way I
was able to generate my own proprietary trading ideas while still staying within the risk parameters set by
the institutions.
The system is a conservative one that is built to trade from both the long and short sides. It's a low risk
trading strategy that creates steady gains but from time to time it has some large returns. The system likes
to hold on to its gains and can handle a variety of economic cycles. It holds up much better than a buy and
hold strategy. If you're risk averse like I am, then it's the perfect system. It allows you to (1) sometimes
take large positions while allowing you to (2) sleep at night knowing that you have strong hands and can
weather all storms. It (3) can allow you to hold in there during temporary market disruptions (market
flashes) while others are forced out.
The heart of Lone Wolf Asymmetric is its ability to use options in its investment management process.
But it is not a structured product in which you buy a zero coupon bond and invest the rest in options. It is
a lot more sophisticated than that. The use of options allows us to limit our risk to a known predetermined
level while maintaining an appropriate amount of leverage. This is an important advantage in today's
environment whereby regulatory bodies are forcing a de-risking of participants. Their exit from the
marketplace has the unintended consequence of reducing liquidity which could make future investment
endeavors even more challenging for some managers. Option usage allows us to create favorable
asymmetric (uneven gain to loss) returns that are able to be expressed in a variety of options strategies.
The optimized option strategies are generated from a proven trading system.
Lone Wolf Asymmetric has developed several technical signals that form the basis of our trading system.
The system signals have been back tested over a forty year span in a variety of markets and over a variety
of economic environments. The system generates signals that include a number of trade signal parameters
(i.e. number of winners / losers, average holding time, average profit /loss, max profit /loss etc).
The second part of the Lone Wolf Asymmetric process starts when we plug-in all the current option
inputs into the appropriate pricing models. The models then generate the current prices and Greeks for all
of our option strategies (outrights, spreads, in-the-money, at-the-money and out-of-the money options and
various ratio combinations). This sets the baseline for the option costs from which comparisons and
optimization will be based.
We then do a "modified what if" scenario. This is done by plugging in those particular individual trade
signal parameters such as "the average holding time for a winner" and "the average profit" and re-
Optimization maximizes expected results by matching that trade signal parameters with the appropriate
option strategy given the current market environment. These profit parameters are "robust" meaning there
is a lot of room for error even if the parameter isn't perfectly timed or hit. However, in the event that we
are wrong - wrong direction, taking too much time, volatility dropping more than forecast - we are able to
make adjustments to either eliminate or reduce our risks with follow-up tactics or strategies. The risk
management of our option portfolios is crucial to the overall success of the program.
Our investment and risk management philosophy is simple. We believe we have a trading edge.
Therefore, in a game where you have an edge you are supposed to play steady, limit losses and play for
the long-term so as to maximize the results of that edge. Basically we grind it out, it's not glamorous.
Thus, we are happy to take small losses so that we can continue playing the game. However, we never
want to take large catastrophic losses and get removed from the game. When you take large losses it's too
hard to make it back. And you're then sometimes limited in what you can do and what markets you can
trade. In addition, large losses can have an adverse psychological impact. Thus we are in business to
manage two types of capital - monetary and mental capital. A drain of our monetary and mental capital
is something that we strive to avoid. We are big believers in having a strong mental discipline when
managing money.
Dynamic Risk
Management: Winning
by Not Losing
While the strategies that we
have outlined all offer
compelling return profiles, Volatility Matters -When a Correction Occurs and How Deep - Impacts
they are not without risk. A Your Ultimate Outcome
sound, active risk-
management process is an
essential component of any
250
trading strategy, as large
losses can have a
catastrophic effect on the 200
long-term returns of
investment portfolios.
Although a great investor 150
Series1
may have a long stretch of
winning years in a row, a Series2
100
handful of large losses Series3
could wipe out all these
gains if there were no 50
strategy to protect profits
and limit losses. After all, a
loss of 50% in a portfolio 0
requires a subsequent gain 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
of 100% just to break even again. Furthermore, as the recent financial crisis illustrates, the downside risk
of the market is much greater than what one would expect from theory. At the heart of modern portfolio
Table shows various Percentage Losses, Actual Losses and Values after Losses in first three columns.
Columns four and five show the subsequent Percentage Gains and the Time (in years) needed to recover from
loss levels while growing at historic 8% rate. Table shows the effect of keeping losses to a minimum.
Volatility Matters
A dynamic risk-management strategy to limit the impact of extreme events is therefore a key component
of portfolio management. As sports fans are aware, it is often a good defense that wins championships.
Ideally, it is desirable to obtain an early warning signal before a crisis takes place. Therefore, we are
always reading reports and checking our technical indicators for inconsistencies and possible reversals.
However, tail events tend to be triggered by unpredictable factors, and market crashes all follow different
paths. The beauty of using options is that they can automatically self-correct (delta changes) when hit by
a sudden Black Swan event. Furthermore, once a crisis occurs and investors are rushing for the exits, it is
too late to buy insurance, as the cost of protection becomes prohibitive.
It is our firm belief that a strong risk management approach to loss control will win out in the long run
even if we don't produce the highest returns in a particular year. The ability to not lose large sums but
instead to keep what we have while using our edge to build upon our winners helps us to compound
growth faster than other managers over time. Eventually the way the asymmetric process works is
that we'll eventually get some very large winners that will put us as the top of the rankings very much like
when we managed money for Commodities Corporation in their Trader Evaluation Program (TEP)
coming in second to Paul Tudor Jones with our 300% return.
Lone Wolf Asymmetric provides several investment programs that can hopefully fit a
variety of client objectives and risk appetites. We believe we are a very good Alpha is an Option
diversifier for most portfolios who have a long-term approach but need a manager to
balance that interim shorter investment horizon. See section below on "Time is a
Precious Asset." As researchers rethink theoretical models of the investment world, We firmly believe in
we anticipate that a key trend in portfolio management will be a focus on active management
asymmetric returnsinvestment strategies that maximize upside potential while or more precisely
capping downside risks. The key to such strategiesand to achieving sustainable "active risk
positive returns over timeis a dynamic risk-management process that limits the
management."
probability of large portfolio losses.
Market participants
While Asymmetric and Behavioral Portfolio Management reject the basic tenets of
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), the careful and rigorous statistical analysis of have different
historical data remains. objectives, time
horizons, skill and
The traditional long-only investor looks at the investment universe and sees distinct other risk
opportunities within different asset classes such as stocks, bonds and currencies.
Investors in each of these asset classes typically focus on different fundamentals. constraints that can
Equity investors are generally most concerned with the ability of the firm to grow its produce
earnings over time; corporate debt investors are more interested in the strength of the inefficiencies.
firms balance sheet and its capacity to repay its debts; and currency investors look
carefully at macroeconomic indicators such as interest-rate differentials and inflation. What this means is
We at Lone Wolf Asymmetric are concerned with the Systemic factors that impact that certain
global markets or at least country markets and see opportunities from shifting among
inefficiencies can be
them. We believe that understanding and following these monster tides ensures a
better probability of success than some individual factor related to a particular exploited by savvy
company or industry. We believe that understanding what sectors /assets are impacted investors who are
the most, makes it a little easier to generate profitable and more stable returns. willing to reflect and
reconsider how the
As recent events illustrate, volatility is a common link between asset classes, and the
returns on these different asset classes can be highly correlated in times of crisis. investment process
There are several reasons for this. For one, the prices of most assets are influenced by works.
macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and GDP growth. Changes in market
liquidity can also affect multiple asset classes at once, particularly in crises. Whether We believe options
exploiting the value premium in equities or the interest-rate differentialor carry can provide
between currencies, the returns from most active strategies suffer when volatility investors with a tool
spikes.
that is flexible, self-
Since volatility is highly correlated across asset classes, in some cases investors can adjusting, and can
replicate an asset by assembling puts and calls from different underlying assets. be tailored to any
Viewing the world through option lens opens us up to a wide range of investment investor's individual
opportunities to profit from pricing anomalies across markets. risk appetite.
Charts below show Monte Carlo simulations. The first 19 weeks of each chart have identical paths but after that their
paths change dramatically. This reflects the theory of many possible outcomes but only one that we finally realize
after looking in retrospect. This also shows that we need to be flexible thinkers and adept as markets change.
Nearly halfway through this presentation and now I get to interject a couple of stories related to time and
investing. The first deals with current events. Presently, it's 2015 the equity markets are dealing with a
variety of issues, China is slowing down, commodities are falling, oil is falling, the dollar is gyrating all
over the place, bonds are trading within a range and the Fed is still trying to decide whether it wants to
raise rates. I see on Bloomberg TV a professional equity manager telling me that he can't predict what's
going to happen in the next couple of months but he can reassure me that in two to three years I'll be
happy that I invested today. My interpretation is that you're crazy! Did you understand what you just said
to us all? First, you have no clue as to what's going on right now. Secondly, you have no clue as to what is
even a safe haven. Thirdly, how do you know things are going to get any better if you don't understand
what's going on presently? Basically you're relying on hope. And for anyone trading the markets for any
length of time they will tell you "Hope" is not a good plan. Basically, this gentleman wanted us to catch
a falling knife without any clue as to what we were getting into (risk/reward potential). How irresponsible
is that? Just because something is cheap doesn't make it a value play and an automatic good investment.
Sometimes prices fall for a valid and sustainable reason. In other cases, it may take years for a company
to turn itself around if at all. Currently, in the news are the firms VW, Glencore and Valeant. The
fundamentals are fuzzy at best and still a lot needs to clear up before a rationale decision can be made on
their prospects. We'll have to wait and see.
The second story relates to a debate that I had with one of my bosses years ago. If you have a background
in technical analysis you'll understand this debate. It has to do with a formation called a rounded bottom.
Normally these are seen in raw metals markets where supply is heavy and weighs on demand for a period
of time. In some of these markets it can literally take years for unproductive mines to shutdown before
demand pick-ups and overtakes the supply again. But when it does occur, it usually is a rocket launch
So squaring the circle, let me relate this back to investing. So when it comes to your
money and your investments don't squander the little time that you may have. Yes,
you may think you have a lot of time to work with but then again as we saw above
depending on what happens to your investments (significant losses) you may not.
Instead try and make the most of all the time that you are given. Remember someone
like my brother, who wasn't going squander what little time he had but instead was
going to be as productive as he could be with the little time he had left.
Conclusion
We need to have an investment philosophy in which our money should be as
productive as possible in the time that we have it and exposed to limited downside
fluctuations. Because we don't know exactly how much time we'll have to build our
nest eggs and exactly when our money and investments will be needed. The vast