Climatic Condition and Emerging Economies

Climatic Condition and Emerging Economies

Abstract
World is heading towards hottest climatic condition observed since last 2000 years. The
sensitivity of the Earth system to a doubling of carbon dioxide emission is significantly greater
than what scientists have thought earlier. Climate change drives the uncertain water cycle in
most region of the world. Some parts of the world are facing adverse effects on health. These
climatic changes are the results of emissions and careless industrialization. All countries in the
world are contributing towards higher emissions and situation is getting worse continuously.
These facts are known since the last quarter of the 20th century. United Nations has observed
and tried to control climatic change since then. But unfortunately the development of mankind
in every aspect of life has surpassed all predictions and targets to nullify the emission effects are
not met ever. Since the introduction of Kyoto Protocol in 1990s, world leaders have taken
enormous steps to control the green house effect. Under Kyoto Protocol member nations of UN
agreed to reduce emissions and work towards the green future. The Kyoto Protocol is
implemented under the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change).
Under Kyoto Protocol, UNFCCC defined different responsibilities for different countries as per
their capabilities, satisfying the vision of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities to save
Planet Earth. But ethically each nation on Earth is equally responsible to save the Earth and
create better future. All countries should work together to achieve the set target to reduce
emission and escape from the atrocious situation of climatic change.
Preamble
Ok Arctic, you can take your ice back. You need it badly!
This is recent statement said by Tom Yulsman (Director of the Center for Environmental
Journalism) in context with current climatic scenario at Arctic and its implications towards global
warming. [1] Latest developments in climate change are alarming and proved to be more serious
than predicted. No matter how dire the situation is, when next time one looks the climatic
situation it gets direr. The span of fifty years from 1950 to 2000 was the hottest recorded in last
2000 years. [2] According to Dr Collin Summerhays of The Geological Society of London, rather
the Earth should become cooler for next 1000 years as per geological and astrological research.
Every atom of green house gasses (GHG) added to atmosphere creates harm to human life now.
Are the only developed countries responsible to tackle the situation? Are developing countries
incapable to work towards emission free world? How much developing countries should rely on
developed countries to work towards green future? Isnt it the moral responsibility of each one
of us to save the Earth? Are the adverse effect of global warming and pollution known by
everyone (i.e. sufficient knowledge available to all)? Are the current policies and schemes to
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achieve safe future against climate change adequate? These are few of the burning questions to
be answered and solved by the human race. There are plenty of solutions to solve these
questions, but time is escaping from our hand. World has to understand every nation has a
responsibility to save Earth and work towards betterment of humankind in context of climatic
condition.
These facts are taken into account by United Nations and all leading members of it and
also scientist all around the world. From late 1980s efforts are being taken to reduce carbon
footprints and limit the emissions to acceptable level. But none of the efforts are proved to be
sufficient as reference data gathered is changing ongoing basis.
UNFCCC & Kyoto Protocol
In 1992, UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) was
established to address the problem of global warming and under the convention during 1995
Kyoto Protocol was adopted. [3] Kyoto Protocol binds every member of the protocol to work as
per the agreement to reduce emissions of CO2 and other Green House Gasses (GHG). But
UNFCCC adopted the vision of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and only developed
countries accepted to achieve the set target under Kyoto Protocol. Members have agreed to the
policy that- only the developed countries should follow the specific targets to reduce the carbon
footprint and they should help the developing countries (technically and financially) to reduce
emissions. The Protocol works under commitment period, 1st was from 2008 to 2012 and 2nd
period started on 1st January, 2013 and will end in 2020.
Under Kyoto Protocol different schemes are made for different countries. Specifically
difference is between countries under Annex B (developed countries) and other countries.
Annex B countries have adopted specific target and others have not. Further countries under
Annex B have to submit GHG data and reduction strategies and results of that annually. But Nonannex B countries are not obliged to submit such data and they just have to submit the report on
financial help they got from developed countries.
Recent surveys and research has shown that, this kind of policy has adverse effect to
achieve global target set, as developing countries emission is increasing rapidly due to lack of
technology and awareness. Following section clarifies the fact.
Comparison: Developed Countries v/s Developing Countries
Among developing countries there are BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa)
one side, where as LDC (Least Developed Countries; includes 49 countries around the globe) on
the other side. BRICS have capabilities to do more development on sustainable energy sector
than what they are doing now, where as LDC are neither financially sound nor do they have
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ample technology. In addition to this theres a class of Middle East (or gulf) countries, those are
just rich because of oil and gas fields they are having.
Below in figures 1 and 2 comparison is made of carbon emission by various countries
during 2012. From figure 1 it is clear that developing countries emitted significantly more
amount of carbon than developed countries. But at the same time it should be noted that
developed countries account only for around 1/4th population of the total world and number of
developed countries are quite less than the developing countries. This fact leads to the debate
that who is responsible for adopting the policies to reduce emission.

Figure 1 Carbon Emission Comparison [4]

Figure 2 below show that the China, USA and European Union are the major player in
emitting carbon. But again China is developing country and it has started to emerge as world
economy just half century ago. Further figure 3 below indicate that per person amount of carbon
emission is much lower for China compared to USA.
Three figures shown above have raised few questions. Firstly, how the emission
contribution to be considered, namely total contribution of one nation or per person
contribution? Second, how much difference to be considered among developed and developing
countries? Third, how the world as a whole should act? To answer such questions first we need
to know some facts. Like the implications of global warming on health among different
underdeveloped poor countries, available technology with them and available financial
resources.

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Figure 2 Country wise Emission [4]

Figure 3 Per person carbon emission for different countries

(Australia: 18.8 tones; USA 16.4 tones; Saudi Arabia: 16.2tones; EU: 7.4 tones; China: 7.1 tons) [4]

Implications of Global Warming on Developing Countries

LDCs (Least Developed Countries)

LDC are the most vulnerable to climatic change. There are many concerns affecting the
daily lives of citizens of LDC countries. Recent surveys showed that in last two decades number
of median of malaria cases in LDCs Ethiopia and Colombia has increased in warmer years and
again decreased in cooler years. [5] This is the clear effect of global warming, as warmer years
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give comfortable temperature for growth to Anopheles mosquito- responsible for transmitting
malaria. Another example is from South Asian countries, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Due to global
warming is well known fact that water cycle is affected and because of this adversity, farmers of
both the countries are not able to grow crops. And in addition Bangladesh is also suffering from
unusual floods in recent years.
One survey reviewed in The Economist showed that people affected by natural disasters
in poor countries are more than the middle-income and high-income countries. Figure 4 shows
the actual scenario. Flimsy housing, poor health and inadequate healthcare lead at these LDC
countries lead to conclude that, these countries are indeed more vulnerable to climate change
than other rapidly developing countries or developed nations. Same survey shows that ten of the
largest cities of developing world are vulnerable to rising sea levels.

Figure 4 Comparison of number of affected people in Natural disaster [6]

In these poor countries farming is the main source of income. But climate change is
affecting farming sector badly as the Earths hydrologic cycle is speeding up. As per survey this
unusual cycle creates more floods as well as droughts and this may lead to fall of corps
production as much as 21% by 2080s in LDCs [6]. Oxfam also predicted that in total hunger might
rise nearer to 20% in coming half century [7]
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BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa)

Now, BRICS in 2011 has combined GDP of $16.039 trillion and these countries include
China and Russia, the worlds third and fifth largest economy. [8] Their faster economic growth
has lead to more industrialization and as a result today China is the largest emitter of Carbon.
But these countries are technically sound and they are capable to drive the sustainable growth.
There are few examples from these countries.
Brazil is hosting the worlds largest hydroelectric plant, which meets countrys 25%
electricity demand. In total country suffice electricity demand by producing 90% of it from
hydropower. That is indeed very sustainable. India is also in a race to increase renewable energy
sources. It has target to add 20 gigawatts of solar energy capacity by 2022 and also plans to add
nuclear power plants, which is the most efficient way of generating electricity today. China also
has changed its policy to increase production of renewable sources and reducing the production
of the coal simultaneously. South Africa is still adopting sustainable growth and making efforts by
investing in green technology and spreading awareness among citizens. But Russia is still almost
fully depended on fossil fuels and still in search of more oil at arctic. In total it has around 16% of
total energy generated by renewable resources.
But these countries are still developing and are suffering from health related issues,
hunger and per capita income on average is so low that individual persons from any of these
countries cannot afford to invest in renewable sources. Moreover, rural areas of these countries
are still not fully educated and do not have awareness regarding carbon footprints or global
warming. They just understand the effect by changing climatic condition and observing that
farmlands are becoming unproductive. Above table is clearly indicating the difference between
developed and emerging economy on the basis of income and education.
Table 1 Comparison of GDP per capita and Litracy Rate

Country

GDP per capita 2012 (US$) [9]

Literacy rate 2006 (%) [10]

Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
USA

11,358
14,302
1,500
6,071
7,525
51,704

85
99
65
90
80
-

Middle East (Gulf Countries)

While the dry desert, barren land and low coastal area (average height from sea level)
have made Middle East susceptible to climate change, the lack of knowledge and surplus oil and
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gas field in the region has kept them aside from the taking good initiatives towards sustainable
development. These countries are susceptible to continuous desertification, temperature rise
and lower rain fall. Average temperature rise in coming 30 years is predicted to be around 3
degrees [11], which is extreme and warning sign for these countries to take initiatives for
sustainable development. This region is yet to realize the impact of global warming, as they are
neglecting the effect by assuming that situation is normal to them since centuries. But the fact is
different, emissions in this region of the world has increased three times faster than the rest of
the world between 1990 and 2007. [12]
From the above observations, review of various surveys and adversity created by climate
change, it can be said that global warming climate change is complex problem and it has roots
in other domains too. It is important to make practical, feasible and scientific conclusions, which
indeed help to make policies based on real data and scientific solutions. But care should be taken
that policies are not influenced by political or economic power.
Problems and Questions present before the World today
Though United Nations and its member nations have taken initiatives in form of UNFCCC
and Kyoto Protocol, which work with help and review from IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change); today there exist some fundamental issues among countries of the world.
Developing countries are blaming developed countries for emission since post
industrialization era (i.e. after 1850s). Developed countries are claiming that all countries are
contributing to carbon footprint today, so even developing countries should drive the change
towards sustainability. But there lies some primary problems with developing countries. There
are countries like LDCs, which are so poor and not having even proper technology to overcome
problems of healthcare and education. There are countries like BRICS trying to work harder each
day to contribute towards green future. Lack of awareness among their citizens, rural areas,
enormous population and exponentially increasing demands of energy restrict BRICS countries to
invest large amount of their economy towards sustainability. Whereas Middle East are the
countries rich and still not thinking much to drive the actions towards sustainability, because of
lack of awareness among them and their adaptability for hot and dry climate conditions.
When per person emission is compared, developed countries and Middle East countries
are at top. Developed countries are trying to reduce emissions, but the rate at which they are
acting is not enough to escape from the adverse effects. And Middle East countries are yet to
initiate the reduction strategies. Recently Doha, Qatar held the world level UN Climate
conference but its citizens are in the race to emit most carbon dioxide and green house gasses.
UAE and Kuwait are not far behind. Though Middle East countries have approved Kyoto Protocol,
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key roles are played by developed nations only with the argument that Middle East and other
developing countries are victim and not cause for climate change.
Below three are the graphs showing the awareness among citizens of 128 countries
throughout the world, surveyed by Gallup poll during 2007-08.
1. Proportion who report knowing "something" or a "great deal" about global warming. Darker
areas indicate a greater proportion of individuals aware while yellow color indicates no data.

2. Proportion responding yes when asked, "Temperature rise is part of global warming or climate
change. Do you think rising temperatures are [...] a result of human activities?"

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3. Proportion responding that global warming is a serious personal threat.

This analysis has shown that majority of Asian and African countries are not aware or less
aware about global warming and climate change.
Discussion on Ethical Point of view
The questions arisen environmental disturbances are complicated and cannot be
answered by any single ethical theory. But, all questions are linked to responsibility, available
resources, care and awareness.
State consequentialism is the essential theory to be followed in this scenario. When
environment is getting worse each day, legal bounds and rules are the best solution to handle
the situation. If UNFCCC along with the World Bank make justifiable legal requirements for
sustainable development, global warming can be dealt. But, of course this is not as simple as it
looks.
As presented in the current scenario developing countries are in need for resources as
well as care. Ethics of care deals with such situation very well. Here argument is that, developed
countries are so reach technically and economically they are capable to help the developing
countries. Care ethics suggest that growth of every human is interdependent and all have to
work as per others response. One has to take care of his own self along with the one whom he is
helping. In same way developed countries are responsible to help developing countries. This help
should not be limited to the monetary aid, but developed countries should also help in
technological advancement, awareness programs and healthcare sector too. This doesnt mean

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developing countries should depend fully on help from developed countries; rather they should
take initiative to work towards becoming technologically and economically better day by day.
Moreover, I suggest that when targets are given to developed countries to reduce
emission, developing countries should also be included. Developed countries should help
developing countries to achieve these targets rather than just helping to reduce emissions
randomly without any fixed targets. The basis of my argument is when goal is set; it can be
measured but if nothing is set as target there is no motivation to work. While setting goal for
emerging economies their current situation has to be analyzed and their requirements should
also be defined.
Now, when the situation is looked from the point of view utilitarianism, industrialization
was not at all ethical when looked from long term and global reach. Because the result we are
facing now is not the desirable and whole human race is suffering from the side products of
industrialization. No doubt therere uncountable benefits and the leaps mankind has taken are
enormous. Last 200 years have changed daily life of people completely. But only western world
had most of the benefits until recent reach of technology to the developing nations. Above all
environmental effects those are creating great amount of trouble to LDCs is the least desirable
outcome.
Ultimately, it can be concluded that current environmental issues can be dealt with
precise combination of state consequentialism, utilitarianism, capability ethics and care ethics.
Conclusion on Open Points
The observations and analysis done above shows some real concerns related to global
issue of climate change. Man has intervened the environmental and ecological cycle of nature
and as a result we are observing some extreme changes in nature, unfavorable to humankind.
International agencies are taking initiatives, but as per scientific research they are lagging behind
to save the Earth. It is needed to keep overall average temperature increase below 2 degrees
Celsius to escape from the danger of climate change. But if world will progress with same rate as
of today in emitting GHG, it is impossible to achieve the target. Developing countries have to
take responsibility to reduce their own emission and they have to let their citizens know the fact.
No doubt LDCs need help from other countries and international agencies such as, World Bank,
International Monitory Fund, etc; but if they remain dependent on developed countries, they
have to suffer in future for sure. Ethically, it is responsibility of every human to help other who is
in need, but the person himself also has to work for his betterment. Same way, all developing
nations in spite of help from developed countries have to become independent to at least save
their citizens. In short it is true that, developed countries are cause for climate change and they
should take initiative to change the current scenario as they have enough resources, but all other
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countries also have to contribute in significant amount to save the Earth. Next year in Paris,
when UNFCCC make new policies, scientific approach needs to be taken instead of economic and
political approach. UNFCCC has to put pressure on all countries to contribute to the best level
they can towards sustainability. And all nations have to realize that the Earth is home for humans
and all need to take initiative to save it. All nations need to make policies that follow the
international agreement. A national commitment and contribution put forward at U.N. meetings
has to be followed up strictly by national legislations.
At last one has to believe and accept that not any nation, but whole world is responsible
for todays climatic change. If every person accepts the fact and help society to flourish in
sustainable development, surely well be out from this phase and environment will again be safe
for everyone on Earth.
References
[1] http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2014/02/21/ok-arctic-can-take-ice-backnow/#.UxsxNPldXcg
[2] http://www.rtcc.org/2013/12/12/carbon-dioxides-effect-on-global-warming-understimated
[3] https://unfccc.int/essential_background/items/6031.php
[4] http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/11/2012s-carbon-emissions-in-five-graphs/
[5] http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/06/us-malaria-climate-idUSBREA251V620140306
[6] http://www.economist.com/node/14447171
[7] http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/sep/27/climate-change-poorcountries-ipcc
[8] http://blueandgreentomorrow.com/features/brics-renewable-energy-and-sustainability-inemerging-economies/
[9] http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/02/weodata/weorept.aspx?
[10] http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/reports
[11] http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jan/08/middle-east-temperature-riseclimate
[12] http://www.irinnews.org/report/96905/middle-east-talking-about-climate-change
[13] http://www.gallup.com/poll/117772/Awareness-Opinions-Global-Warming-VaryWorldwide.aspx

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