Dr Salut Muhidin

(salut.muhidin@mq.edu.au)
Kuliah Umum S2 Program Studi Kependudukan
Program Pascasarjana Universitas Sriwijaya
10 Januari 2013
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Outline Presentasi
Definisi dan peran penting demografi
Trend demografi
Beberapa implikasi dari trend demografi
Ketenagakerjaan,
Konsumsi, dan
Sumber daya

Peluang bisnis sebagai akibat trend demografi

Kesimpulan dan diskusi

What is Demography?
The scientific study of human population.
Concerned with:

Population size
Population growth or decline
Population processes
Population distribution
Population structure
Population characteristics

Why is Demography Important?

Global, national, and local issues have important
demographic components :
Globalization: MDG, Global Network
The degradation of the environment: Greenhouse
The backlash against immigrants: origin and
destination countries
Terrorism, violence and regional conflict
Etc..

Related Issues with Demography

Population Policy
Environment

Socio-economic
Development

Population

Human
Settlement

Migration

Fertility

Human
Trafficking

Crisis of
Low Fertility

Mortality
Ageing

Pandemic:
Bird Flu, HIV/AIDS
Inequality of
Health
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More specific: Why should businesses care

about populations?
Business opportunities and decisions are often
information driven.
1. Demand side: Populations and subpopulations are
potential markets for their goods and services.
2. Supply side: Populations and subpopulations are
potential sources of labour to provide their goods
and services.
Demography
(change)

Business
(change)

Business Demographics
The application of the contents and methods of
demography to business problems and
opportunities (Pol & Thomas, 1997)
Examples:
Demographics are an important component of site
selection for many businesses.
Investors use demographics to find areas of potential
market growth.
Human resource managers use demographics to
increase their awareness of the special qualities and
needs among their present and prospective employees.

Use Demography in Business Decision-Making

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Market analysis.
Market segmentation.
Identification of potential customers/markets.
Site selection.
Human resource planning
Strategic planning of responses of demographically-related
opportunities and threats.
7. Risk assessment
Superannuation and life assurance (survival rates and life
tables) and other forms of insurance

Uses of Demography in the Public Sector

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

Demography and Democracy

Demography and Funding Allocation
Demography and Service Provision
Demography and Financial Planning
Demography and Social Inclusion
Workforce Planning
Demography and Policy Development

Indonesian Demography

The diversity is happening in regional demographic indicators

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Demographic Trends
Growing population
Higher population size and economic growth rates,
which results in:
Increased roles of migration, and
Growing rates of urbanisation

Changing age structure: Ageing population

Increased life expectancy, particularly among women,
and lower fertility rates, which results in: Higher share
of elderly people

These demographic trends have impacts on

different, yet interrelated outcomes
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Demographic Trends: Growing Population

Demographically, Indonesia and its regions have generally
experienced in declining fertility and mortality rates. As a
result, migration will eventually take its turn in determining
the growth of population (Pt = P0 + B-D + Net Mig).
Population of Indonesia: 1930-2010
300.000
237.641

250.000

207.437

200.000

179.379
147.490

150.000
95.259

100.000

68.632

50.000
2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

1945

1940

1935

1930

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Growing Population: Urban 2000 & 2005

13

Advanced Transportations

14

Table 2 after Firman et al (2006)

15

Changing Age Structure:

From Youth Bulge to Aged Bulge

1971
1990
80-84

80-84

Year = 1971
70-74

Pop Aged 60+ =

4.5%
TFR = 5.1

12.500.000

Female

60-64

7.500.000

Year = 1990
70-74

Male

50-54

50-54

40-44

40-44

30-34

30-34

20-24

20-24

10-14

10-14

0-4

0-4

2.500.000

2.500.000

7.500.000

12.500.000 12.500.000

7.500.000

2000

7.500.000

Female

7.500.000

12.500.000

Year = 2010
Male
Female

60-64

50-54

50-54

40-44

40-44

30-34

30-34

20-24

20-24

10-14

10-14

2.500.000

2.500.000

70-74

0-4
12.500.000

2.500.000

80-84

Year = 1998
Male

60-64

Female

2010

80-84
70-74

Male

60-64

Pop Aged 60+

= 7.6%
TFR = 2.3

0-4
2.500.000

7.500.000

12.500.000
12500000

7500000

2500000

2500000

7500000

12500000

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Regional Diversity
80-84

Male

70-74

Female

60-64
50-54

Proportion of elderly (aged 60+):

Yogyakarta = 14.16% vs. Papua = 1.74%
North Sumatra = 5.90%

40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0-4
1,000

500

0
500
North Sumatra 2010
80-84

Male

70-74

Female

1,000

60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0-4
200

100

0
Yogyakarta 2010

100

200

Population distribution by main island:

Java = 57.49% population in 6.8% land size
Rest of Indonesia = 42.51% pop in 93.2%
land size
Population growth rates (Census 2010)
National = 1.49%,
The highest = 5.39% in Papua
The lowest = 0.37% in Central Java
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Implications from Demographic Changes

1. Changes in the Workforce
Skills shortages will primarily be present in:
Less developed regions where educational shortfalls may
exist
More developed regions markets where a significant
proportion of the working population nears retirement
age, with little prospect of worker replacement

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Implications from Demographic Changes

2. Changes in the Consumer Base
Increasing product and service needs for:
Low-income consumers in developing markets
Consumers with higher disposable incomes in all
markets
Ageing populations in more developed markets

* PPP Purchasing Power Parity

Source: AT Kearney

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Implications from Demographic Changes

3. Increasing pressure on resources and the environment
Ability to provide products and
services which lessen impacts on
resource depletion and
environmental degradation are
key
If current consumption rates
continue, by 2050 a global
population of over nine billion
will require the biological
capacity of two Earths

Population growth leads to rising

consumption and increasing pressure
on scarce resources

Source: Goldman Sachs, 2010

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Business Opportunities from Demographic Changes

Three main implications resulting from demographic
changes have resulted in numerous business opportunities.
Challenges

Business
Opportunities

Changes in the
Workforce

Skills Shortages

Changes in the Consumer Base

Base/Bottom of
the Pyramid
(BOP)

Wealthier
Consumers

Ageing
Populationfocused Products

Pressure on
Resources & the
Environment
Resource
Scarcity &
Environmental
Degradation

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Business Opportunities from Demographic Changes

Challenges

Business
Opportunities

Solutions

Changes in the
Workforce

Changes in the Consumer Base

Skills Shortages

Base/Bottom of
the Pyramid
(BOP)

Education Services

Affordable Healthcare

Employment &
Outsourcing Services

Affordable Food &

Nutrition

Automation Services

Affordable Finance

Pressure on
Resources & the
Environment

Wealthier
Consumers

Ageing
Populationfocused Products

Resource
Scarcity &
Environmental
Degradation

Aspirational Products

Healthier Living &

Quality of Life

Food Productivity

Financial Security

Hygiene & Sanitation

Management of
Resources

Access to Telecoms

Access to Transport

Access to Energy

Fairtrade Systems
2011 SRI Roadshow

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Business Opportunity Skills Shortages

Main Issues
Ageing workforce which is close to retirement age
loss of skills and knowledge
Lack of education and vocational training
lack of qualified new entrants into the labour market
Poor recruitment and employee retention policies and
programmes
Different generation needs different approaches
lower productivity and higher turnover costs

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Business Opportunity Skills Shortages

Provision of Education Services
Lack of education is a major obstacle to
development
New technologies and increased access to the
Internet may assist in offering a cheaper
alternative
Opportunities will increase for multi-skilled
workers and those able to adapt to new
technical or cultural environment

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Business Opportunity Skills Shortages

Education division is expected account for bulk of

growth in revenues and profits in future

Opportunity in the shift to digital education

programmes

Global digital education revenue mix has increased

from 30% to 44% over the period 2005 - 2010

Strong opportunities to expand in unsaturated media

markets

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Business Opportunities from Demographic Changes

Challenges

Business
Opportunities

Solutions

Changes in the
Workforce

Changes in the Consumer Base

Skills Shortages

Base/Bottom of
the Pyramid
(BOP)

Education Services

Affordable Healthcare

Employment &
Outsourcing Services

Affordable Food &

Nutrition

Automation Services

Affordable Finance

Pressure on
Resources & the
Environment

Wealthier
Consumers

Ageing
Populationfocused Products

Resource
Scarcity &
Environmental
Degradation

Aspirational Products

Healthier Living &

Quality of Life

Food Productivity

Financial Security

Hygiene & Sanitation

Management of
Resources

Access to Telecoms

Access to Transport

Access to Energy

Fairtrade Systems

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Business Opportunity Base/Bottom of the

Pyramid
Main issues
Access to essential goods and services
human right
Growing low-income populations
over 4 billion people with a market opportunity
estimated to be almost USD 5 trillion
Providing the right products
affordability, availability, acceptability, accessibility

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Business Opportunity Base/Bottom of the

Pyramid
Access to Telecoms
Main opportunities in mobile technologies
and Internet access
Mobile telephony offers new ICT solutions to
regions that used to be without access
Still imbalance in Internet access

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Business Opportunities from Demographic Changes

Challenges

Business
Opportunities

Solutions

Changes in the
Workforce

Changes in the Consumer Base

Skills Shortages

Base/Bottom of
the Pyramid
(BOP)

Education Services

Affordable Healthcare

Employment &
Outsourcing Services

Affordable Food &

Nutrition

Automation Services

Affordable Finance

Pressure on
Resources & the
Environment

Wealthier
Consumers

Ageing
Populationfocused Products

Resource
Scarcity &
Environmental
Degradation

Aspirational Products

Healthier Living &

Quality of Life

Food Productivity

Financial Security

Hygiene & Sanitation

Management of
Resources

Access to Telecoms

Access to Transport

Access to Energy

Fairtrade Systems

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Business Opportunity Ageing Population

Main issues
Globally, rising generation of
over-65s
strong growth for certain
products and services
Social perspective
maintenance of quality of
life and the increasing need
for healthcare services
Economic perspective
impacts on savings,
investments and pensions and
need for financial stability

Percent of the population aged 60 or over, 20002025

Source: UN, 2009

Source: United Nations 2008 Revision

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Business Opportunity Ageing Population

Provision of Healthier Living and Quality of Life
Healthcare expenditure for over-65s are nearly
four times that of younger people
Functional foods present growing market
opportunities
Service specialised in orthopaedics, endoscopy
and wound management
Increasing shift towards managed healthcare
services for elderly populations
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Business Opportunities from Demographic Changes

Challenges

Business
Opportunities

Solutions

Changes in the
Workforce

Changes in the Consumer Base

Skills Shortages

Base/Bottom of
the Pyramid
(BOP)

Education Services

Affordable Healthcare

Employment &
Outsourcing Services

Affordable Food &

Nutrition

Automation Services

Affordable Finance

Pressure on
Resources & the
Environment

Wealthier
Consumers

Ageing
Populationfocused Products

Resource
Scarcity &
Environmental
Degradation

Aspirational Products

Healthier Living &

Quality of Life

Food Productivity

Financial Security

Hygiene & Sanitation

Management of
Resources

Access to Telecoms

Access to Transport

Access to Energy

Fairtrade Systems

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Business Opportunity Sources & Environment

Main issues
If global population reaches 9.3
billion people by 2050, global
grain production will have to
feed an additional 2.5 billion
people, an 40% increase
By 2025 1.8 billion people will
live in regions with absolute
water scarcity, including most
countries in the Middle East and
North Africa
Population growth is
intensifying the demand for,
and consumption of, non
renewable energy sources

Food demand exceeds addition of available land for

agriculture

Source: Goldman Sachs, 2010; World Bank

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Conclusions
Trends

Challenges

Solutions
& Market
Opportunit
ies

Two interrelated demographic trends

Growing populations higher population and
economic growth rates
Ageing populations higher share of elderly
people

Challenges implicate changes to the

workforce, consumer base and even the
wider environment and use of resources
Business opportunities exist which offer both
sustainable solutions and sound financial
returns.
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