Analysis of a

Decision

WMD Crisis Incident Management

Objectives
Define three types of decision making command, group,
and collaborative
Explain the usefulness of the three models
Discuss the differences between rational decision making
and crisis decision making
Describe the variables that affect decision making
Identify the criteria for successful decision making during a
crisis

Types of Decision Making

Command
Group
Collaborative

Methods of Decision Making

Command leader collects and evaluates the needed
information, then makes a unilateral decision based upon
his / her past experience

Methods of Decision Making

Group leader joins the group and shares the responsibility
for the decision
Often takes place in a multiagency response or planning effort

Decision Making Considerations

The action criteria
Is the contemplated action

Necessary (now)?
Risk effective?
Acceptable?

Timing questions
Why did we take the action now?
What conditions have changed?
Were less risky alternatives tried?

Methods of Decision Making

Collaborative combination of command and group models
The leader collects the information from junior group members
and then makes a decision based on all sources of information,
analysis, and recommendations

Decision Tree
A decision tree is a decision-support tool that uses a
treelike graph or model of decisions and their possible
consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource
costs, and utility
Decision trees are commonly used in decision analyses to
determine a strategy that will successfully achieve a goal

Decision Tree
Disagreement
Maximum
Award
Do Nothing

Talk
Other Side Makes
Counteroffer

Agree

Accept
Counteroffer
Maximum
Award

Refuse and Go
to Court

Minimum
Award
Disagree /
Take to Court

Probable
Award

Make Another
Counteroffer
Accept Offer

Refuse and Go
to Court

Make Another
Counteroffer

Refuse and Go to
Court

Minimum
Award

Maximum
Award

Probable
Award

Minimum
Award

Minimum
Award

Probable
Award

Probable
Award

Accept Offer

Maximum
Award

Decision-Making Variables
Time available
Readiness of employees to participate in the decisionmaking process
Amount of information needed
Acceptance by followers
Quality and accuracy of the decision
Incoming information, available resources, and capabilities
Organizational culture and structure

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Discussion Decision Making

Is executive-level decision making in a crisis environment
different from normal or other types of decision making?
If you believe it is different, please explain why or how it is
different

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The Danger of the Rational

Decision Making Model
We tend to make decisions using this model in everyday
non-crisis situations
In a crisis, we do not have the advantage of having all the
time, money, and resources to carefully study unchanging
variables and make the best decision possible

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Decision-Making Variables
Affecting the Decision Maker
Rank
Experience
Knowledge, skills, and ability
Confidence
Capabilities available to be successful
Legal restrictions
Budget
Span of control
Fatigue
Support of superiors
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Preparation Is the Key to Success

Have a current crisis plan
Train yourself and your personnel to the requirements and
expectations of the crisis plan
Exercise and evaluate the plan in tough, realistic settings
Honestly assess performance
Take corrective actions

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Action Criteria
Is the action necessary?
At this particular time
Within the context of the crisis

Is the action risk effective?

Will it increase or reduce risk

Is the action acceptable?

Legally
Ethically

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Improving Decision Making Under

Stress
Have a comprehensive crisis management plan
Have clearly defined goals
Stay current on pertinent information
Include others in decision-making process
Avoid the action imperative
Use action criteria
Conduct regular crisis simulation training
Rest
Fatigue leads to bad decisions

Review past performance and take corrective action to

improve future performance
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Summary
Defined three types of decision making command, group,
and collaborative
Explained the usefulness of the three models
Discussed the differences between rational decision making
and crisis decision making
Described the variables that affect decision making
Identified the criteria for successful decision making during
a crisis

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