Statistics and Probability

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Statistics and Probability

© All Rights Reserved

Als DOCX, PDF, TXT **herunterladen** oder online auf Scribd lesen

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- Lecture Notes(Introduction to Probability and Statistics)
- Tutorial 05 Questions 1 2014 Edited
- S2_MEI
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- Continuous Random Variables

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data collection and analysis. Probability is the study of chance and is

a very fundamental subject that we apply in everyday living, while

statistics is more concerned with how we handle data using different

analysis techniques and collection methods. These two subjects

always go hand in hand and thus you can't study one without

studying the other.

Introduction to Statistics

Statistics is a branch of mathematics that deals with the collection,

analysis and interpretation of data. Data can be defined as groups of

information that represent the qualitative or quantitative attributes

of a variable or set of variables. In layman's terms, data in statistics

can be any set of information that describes a given entity. An

example of data can be the ages of the students in a given class.

When you collect those ages, that becomes your data.

commonly used to refer to the number of people in a given place, in

statistics, a population refers to any entire set from which you

collect data.

Data Collection Methods

As we have seen in the definition of statistics, data collection is a

fundamental aspect and as a consequence, there are different

methods of collecting data which when used on one particular set

will result in different kinds of data. Let's move on to look at these

individual methods of collection in order to better understand the

types of data that will result.

Census Data Collection

Census data collection is a method of collecting data whereby all the

data from each and every member of the population is collected.

For example, when you collect the ages of all the students in a given

class, you are using the census data collection method since you are

including all the members of the population (which is the class in

this case).

consuming and costly) if the number of elements (population size) is

very large. To understand the scope of how expensive it is, think of

trying to count all the ten year old boys in the country. That would

take a lot of time and resources, which you may not have.

Sample Data Collection

Sample data collection, which is commonly just referred to

as sampling, is a method which collects data from only a chosen

portion of the population.

Sampling assumes that the portion that is chosen to be sampled is a

good estimate of the entire population. Thus one can save resources

and time by only collecting data from a small part of the population.

But this raises the question of whether sampling is accurate or not.

The answer is that for the most part, sampling is approximately

accurate. This is only true if you choose your sample carefully to be

able to closely approximate what the true population consists of.

Sampling is used commonly in everyday life, for example, all the

different research polls that are conducted before elections. Pollsters

don't ask all the people in a given state who they'll vote for, but they

choose a small sample and assume that these people represent how

the entire population of the state is likely to vote. History has shown

that these polls are almost always close to accuracy, and as such

sampling is a very powerful tool in statistics.

Experimental Data Collection

Experimental data collection involves one performing an experiment

and then collecting the data to be further analyzed. Experiments

involve tests and the results of these tests are your data.

An example of experimental data collection is rolling a die one

hundred times while recording the outcomes. Your data would be the

results you get in each roll. The experiment could involve rolling the

die in different ways and recording the results for each of those

different ways.

Experimental data collection is useful in testing theories and

different products and is a very fundamental aspect of mathematics

and all science as a whole.

Observational data collection method involves not carrying out an

experiment but observing without influencing the population at all.

Observational data collection is popular in studying trends and

behaviors of society where, for example, the lives of a bunch of

people are observed and data is collected for the different aspects of

their lives.

Data

Data can be defined as groups of information that represent the

qualitative or quantitative attributes of a variable or set of variables,

which is the same as saying that data can be any set of information

that describes a given entity. Data in statistics can be classified into

grouped data and ungrouped data.

Any data that you first gather is ungrouped data. Ungrouped data is

data in the raw. An example of ungrouped data is a any list of

numbers that you can think of.

Grouped Data

Grouped data is data that has been organized into groups known as

classes. Grouped data has been 'classified' and thus some level of

data analysis has taken place, which means that the data is no

longer raw.

A data class is group of data which is related by some user defined

property. For example, if you were collecting the ages of the people

you met as you walked down the street, you could group them into

classes as those in their teens, twenties, thirties, forties and so on.

Each of those groups is called a class.

Each of those classes is of a certain width and this is referred to as

the Class Interval or Class Size. This class interval is very

important when it comes to drawing Histograms and Frequency

diagrams. All the classes may have the same class size or they may

have different classes sizes depending on how you group your data.

The class interval is always a whole number.

Below is an example of grouped data where the classes have the

same class interval.

Age

(years)

Frequency

0 - 9

12

10 - 19

30

20 - 29

18

30 - 39

12

40 - 49

50 - 59

60 - 69

Solution:

Below is an example of grouped data where the classes have

different class interval.

Age (years)

Frequency

Class Interval

0 - 9

15

10

10 - 19

18

10

20 - 29

17

10

30 - 49

35

20

50 - 79

20

30

Given a set of raw or ungrouped data, how would you group that

data into suitable classes that are easy to work with and at the same

time meaningful?

The first step is to determine how many classes you want to have.

Next, you subtract the lowest value in the data set from the highest

value in the data set and then you divide by the number of classes

that you want to have:

Example 1:

Group the following raw data into ten classes.

Solution:

Class interval should always be a whole number and yet in this case

we have a decimal number. The solution to this problem is to round

off to the nearest whole number.

In this example, 2.8 gets rounded up to 3. So now our class width

will be 3; meaning that we group the above data into groups of 3 as

in the table below.

Number

Frequency

1 - 3

4 - 6

7 - 9

10 - 12

13 - 15

16 - 18

19 - 21

22 - 24

25 - 27

28 - 30

Class limits refer to the actual values that you see in the table.

Taking an example of the table above, 1 and 3 would be the class

limits of the first class. Class limits are divided into two categories:

lower class limit and upper class limit. In the table above, for the

first class, 1 is the lower class limit while 3 is the upper class limit.

On the other hand, class boundaries are not always observed in the

frequency table. Class boundaries give the true class interval, and

similar to class limits, are also divided into lower and upper class

boundaries.

The relationship between the class boundaries and the class interval

is given as follows:

relationships:

equal to the upper class boundary of the previous class.

Class limits and class boundaries play separate roles when it comes

to representing statistical data diagrammatically as we shall see in a

moment.

Probability

Probability is the branch of mathematics that deals with the study

chance. Probability deals with the study of experiments and their

outcomes.

Probability Key Terms

Experiment

An experiment in probability is a test to see what will

happen incase you do something. A simple example is

flipping a coin. When you flip a coin, you are performing

an experiment to see what side of the coin you'll end up

with.

Outcome

An outcome in probability refers to a single (one) result of

an experiment. In the example of an experiment above,

one outcome would be heads and the other would be tails.

Event

An event in probability is the set of a group of different

outcomes of an experiment. Suppose you flip a coin

multiple times, an example of an event would the getting

a certain number of heads.

Sample Space

A sample space in probability is the total number of all the

different possible outcomes of a given experiment. If you

flipped a coin once, the sample space S would be given

by:

combinations of heads and tails would make up the sample

space. A sample space is also defined as a Universal Set for the

outcomes of a given experiment.

Notation of Probability

The probability that a certain event will happen when an experiment

is performed can in layman's terms be described as the chance that

something will happen.

The probability of an event, E is denoted by

possible outcomes in the sample space, as shown below:

number of outcomes in an event is denoted by n.

From the above, we can denote the probability of an event as:

For the sample space given above, if the event is 2, there is only one

2 in the sample space, thus n = 1 and N = 6.

Thus probability of getting a 2 when you roll a die is given by

Event

The largest probability an event can have is one and the smallest is

zero. There are no negative probabilities and no probabilities greater

than one. Probabilities are real positive numbers ranging from zero

to one. The closer the probability is to 1, the more likely the event is

to occur while the closer the event is to zero, the less likely the

event is to occur.

When an event has probability of one, we say that the event must

happen and when the probability is zero we say that the event is

impossible.

The total of all the probabilities of the events in a sample space add

up to one.

Events with the same probability have the same likelihood of

occurring. For example, when you flip a fair coin, you are just as

likely to get a head as a tail. This is because these two outcomes

have the same probability i.e.

Concepts in Probability

The study of probability mostly deals with combining different

events and studying these events alongside each other. How these

different events relate to each other determines the methods and

rules to follow when we're studying their probabilities.

Events can be pided into two major categories dependent or

Independent events.

Independent Events

this means is that the probability that one event occurs in no way

affects the probability of the other event occurring. An example of

two independent events is as follows; say you rolled a die and

flipped a coin. The probability of getting any number face on the die

in no way influences the probability of getting a head or a tail on the

coin.

Dependent Events

When two events are said to be dependent, the probability of one

event occurring influences the likelihood of the other event.

For example, if you were to draw a two cards from a deck of 52

cards. If on your first draw you had an ace and you put that aside,

the probability of drawing an ace on the second draw is greatly

changed because you drew an ace the first time. Let's calculate

these different probabilities to see what's going on.

There are 4 Aces in a deck of 52 cards

If we don't return this card into the deck, the probability of drawing

an ace on the second pick is given by

As you can clearly see, the above two probabilities are different, so

we say that the two events are dependent. The likelihood of the

second event depends on what happens in the first event.

Conditional Probability

We have already defined dependent and independent events and

seen how probability of one event relates to the probability of the

other event.

Having those concepts in mind, we can now look at conditional

probability.

Conditional probability deals with further defining dependence of

events by looking at probability of an event given that some other

event first occurs.

Conditional probability is denoted by the following:

has already occurred.

The above is mathematically defined as:

A sample space is defined as a universal set of all possible outcomes

from a given experiment.

Given two events A and B and given that these events are part of a

sample space S. This sample space is represented as a set as in the

diagram below.

The different regions of the set S can be explained as using the rules

of probability.

Rules of Probability

When dealing with more than one event, there are certain rules that

we must follow when studying probability of these events. These

rules depend greatly on whether the events we are looking at are

Independent or dependent on each other.

First acknowledge that

This region is referred to as 'A intersection B' and in probability; this

region refers to the event that both A and B happen. When we use

be thought of as AxB or (using dot notation which is more popular in

probability) AB

If A and B are dependent events, the probability of this event

happening can be calculated as shown below:

happening can be calculated as shown below:

using the relationship above to become:

the occurrence of event A in no way influences the occurrence of

event B, and so the probability that event B occurs given that

event A has occurred is the same as the probability of event B.

Additive Rule (AB)

In probability we refer to the addition operator (+) as or. Thus when

we want to we want to define some event such that the event can

be A or B, to find the probability of that event:

But remember from set theory that and from the way we defined our

sample space above:

and that:

Mutual Exclusivity

Certain special pairs of events have a unique relationship referred to

as mutual exclusivity.

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they can't occur at

the same time. For a given sample space, its either one or the other

but not both. As a consequence, mutually exclusive events have

their probability defined as follows:

coin flip. When you flip a fair coin, you either get a head or a tail but

not both, we can prove that these events are mutually exclusive by

adding their probabilities:

For any given pair of events, if the sum of their probabilities is equal

to one, then those two events are mutually exclusive.

Rules of Probability for Mutually Exclusive Events

Multiplication Rule

From the definition of mutually exclusive events, we

should quickly conclude the following:

Addition Rule

As we defined above, the addition rule applies to

mutually exclusive events as follows:

Subtraction Rule

From the addition rule above, we can conclude that

the subtraction rule for mutually exclusive events

takes the form;

We have defined conditional probability with the following equation:

hence

events A and B.

A random variable is defined as a function that associates a real

number (the probability value) to an outcome of an experiment.

In other words, a random variable is a generalization of the

outcomes or events in a given sample space. This is possible since

the random variable by definition can change so we can use the

same variable to refer to different situations. Random variables

make working with probabilities much neater and easier.

capital X, and the small letter x is then used to ascribe a value to

the random variable.

For examples, given that you flip a coin twice, the sample space for

the possible outcomes is given by the following:

above; where H stands for heads and T stands for tails.

The random variable X can be given by the following:

question as:

which means that the probability that the random variable is equal

to some real number x.

In the above example, we can say:

Let X be a random variable defined as the number of heads

obtained when two coins are tossed. Find the probability the you

obtain two heads.

So now we've been told what X is and that x = 2, so we write the

above information as:

Since we already have the sample space, we know that there is only

one outcomes with two heads, so we find the probability as:

From this example, you should be able to see that the random

variable X refers to any of the elements in a given sample space.

There are two types of random variables: discrete variables and

continuous random variables.

Discrete Random Variables

The word discrete means separate and individual. Thus discrete

random variables are those that take on integer values only. They

never include fractions or decimals.

A quick example is the sample space of any number of coin flips, the

outcomes will always be integer values, and you'll never have half

heads or quarter tails. Such a random variable is referred to as

discrete. Discrete random variables give rise to discrete probability

distributions.

Continuous Random Variable

Continuous is the opposite of discrete. Continuous random variables

are those that take on any value including fractions and decimals.

Continuous random variables give rise to continuous probability

distributions.

Probability Distributions

A probability distribution is a mapping of all the possible values of a

random variable to their corresponding probabilities for a given

sample space.

The probability distribution is denoted as

ordered pairs of outcomes and their probabilities. This is known as

the probability function f(x).

This set of ordered pairs can be written as:

The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) is defined as the

probability that a random variable X with a given probability

distribution f(x) will be found at a value less than x. The cumulative

distribution function is a cumulative sum of the probabilities up to a

given point.

The CDF is denoted by F(x) and is mathematically described as:

Discrete random variables give rise to discrete probability

distributions. For example, the probability of obtaining a certain

number x when you toss a fair die is given by the probability

distribution table below.

x

P(X = x)

(x,f(x)), where x is each outcome in a given sample space and f(x) is

its probability, must follow the following:

P(X = x) = f(x)

f(x) 0

x f(x) = 1

Cumulative Distribution Function for a Discrete Random

Variable

For a discrete random variable, the CDF is given as follows:

up all the probability distributions of all the outcomes less than or

equal to the given variable.

For example, given a random variable X which is defined as the face

that you obtain when you toss a fair die, find F(3)

distribution function, for example

given that you know the full table of the cumulative distribution

functions of the sample space.

Continuous Probability Distribution

Continuous random variables give rise to continuous probability

distributions. Continuous probability distributions can't be tabulated

since by definition the probability of any real number is zero i.e.

be infinitely divided into smaller parts such that the probability of

selecting a real integer value x is zero.

Consequently, the continuous probability distribution is found as

and so on.

While a discrete probability distribution is characterized by its

probability function (also known as the probability mass function),

their probability density functions.

Since we look at regions in which a given outcome is likely to occur,

we define the Probability Density Function (PDF) as the a function

that describes the probability that a given outcome will occur at a

given point.

This can be mathematically represented as:

For a continuous probability distribution, the set of ordered pairs

(x,f(x)), where x is each outcome in a given sample space and f(x) is

its probability, must follow the following:

P(x_ 1 < X < x 2 ) = x _ 1 x 2 f(x) dx

f(x) 0 for all real numbers

f(x) dx = 1

Cumulative Distribution Function for a Continuous

Probability Distribution

For a continuous random variable X, its CDF is given by

and

From the above, we can see that to find the probability density

function f(x) when given the cumulative distribution function F(x);

Continuous probability distributions are given in the form

whereby the above means that the probability density function f(x)

exists within the region {x;a,b} but takes on the value of zero

anywhere else.

For example, given the following probability density function

1. P(X 4)

Since we're finding the probability that the random variable is less

than or equal to 4, we integrate the density function from the given

lower limit (1) to the limit we're testing for (4).

We need not concern ourselves with the 0 part of the density

function as all it indicates is that the function only exists within the

given region and the probability of the random variable landing

anywhere outside of that region will always be zero.

2. P(X < 1)

P(X < 1) = 0 since the density function f(x) doesn't exist outside of

the given boundary

3. P(2 X 3)

Since the region we're given lies within the boundary for which x is

defined, we solve this problem as follows:

4. P(X > 1)

The above problem is asking us to find the probability that the

random variable lies at any point between 1 and positive Infinity. We

can solve it as follows:

since it is too small

lying within that region hence the random variable will always be

picked from there.

5. F(2)

The above is asking us to find the cumulative distribution function

evaluated at 2.

In the section on probability distributions, we looked at discrete and

continuous distributions but we only focused on single random

variables. Probability distributions can, however, be applied to

grouped random variables which gives rise to joint probability

distributions. Here we're going to focus on 2-dimensional

distributions (i.e. only two random variables) but higher dimensions

(more than two variables) are also possible.

Since all random variables are divided into discrete and continuous

random variables, we have end up having both discrete and

continuous joint probability distributions. These distributions are not

so different from the one variable distributions we just looked at but

understanding some concepts might require one to have knowledge

of multivariable calculus at the back of their mind.

Essentially, joint probability distributions describe situations where

by both outcomes represented by random variables occur. While we

only X to represent the random variable, we now have X and Y as

the pair of random variables.

Joint probability distributions are defined in the form below:

events x and y occur at the same time.

probability distribution is given by:

Discrete random variables when paired give rise to discrete joint

probability distributions. As with single random variable discrete

probability distribution, a discrete joint probability distribution can

be tabulated as in the example below.

The table below represents the joint probability distribution obtained

for the outcomes when a die is flipped and a coin is tossed.

f(x,y)

1 2 3 4 5 6

Row Totals

Heads

a b c d e f

Tails

g h i

Column Totals

k l

tossed while y = Heads, Tails are outcomes when the coin is

flipped. The letters a through l represent the joint probabilities of the

different events formed from the combinations of x and ywhile the

Greek letters represent the totals and should equal to 1. The row

sums and column sums are referred to as the marginal probability

distribution functions (PDF).

We shall see in a moment how to obtain the different probabilities

but first let us define the probability mass function for a joint

discrete probability distribution.

The probability function, also known as the probability mass function

for a joint probability distribution f(x,y) is defined such that:

f(x,y) 0 for all (x,y)

Which means that the joint probability should

always greater or equal to zero as dictated by the

fundamental rule of probability.

x y f(x,y) = 1

probabilities should equal to one for a given sample

space.

f(x,y) = P(X =x, Y = y)

The mass probability function f(x,y) can be calculated in a number of

different ways depend on the relationship between the random

variables X and Y.

As we saw in the section on probability concepts, these two

variables can be either independent or dependent.

If X and Y are Independent:

In the example we gave above, flipping a coin and tossing a die are

independent random variables, the outcome from one event does

not in any way affect the outcome in the other events. Assuming

that the coin and die were both fair, the probabilities given

by a through l can be obtained by multiplying the probabilities of the

different x and y combinations.

For example: P(X = 2, Y = Tails) is given by

Since we claimed that the coin and the die are fair, the

probabilities a through l should be the same.

The marginal PDF's, represented by the Greek letters should be the

probabilities you expect when you obtain each of the outcomes.

For example:

f(x,y)

Row Totals

Heads

12

12

12

12

12

12

Tails

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

1

1

Column Totals

6

6

If X and Y are Dependent:

calculated using their different relationships as in the example

below.

Given a bag containing 3 black balls, 2 blue balls and 3 green balls,

a random sample of 4 balls is selected. Given that X is the number

of black balls and Y is the number of blue balls, find the joint

probability distribution of X and Y.

Solution:

The random variables X and Y are dependent since they are picked

from the same sample space such that if any one of them is picked,

the probability of picking the other is affected. So we solve this

problem by using combinations.

We've been told that there are 4 possible outcomes of X i.e

{0,1,2,3} where by you can pick none, one, two or three black balls;

and similarly for Y there are 3 possible outcomes {0,1,2} i.e. none,

one or two blue balls.

The joint probability distribution is given by the table below:

f(x,y)

0

1

2

Column Totals

0 1 2 3 Row Totals

know the total number of black balls to be 3, the total number of

blue balls to be 2, the total sample need to be 4 and the total

number of balls in the bag to be 3+2+3 = 8.

We find the joint probability mass function f(x,y) using combinations

as:

What the above represents are the different number of ways we can

pick each of the required balls. We substitute for the different values

of x (0,1,2,3) and y (0,1,2) and solve i.e.

claim that the probability of obtaining zero black balls and zero blue

balls is zero. This is because of the size of the entire population

relative to the sample space. We need 4 balls from a bag of 8 balls,

in order not to pick black nor blue balls, we would need there to be

at least 4 green balls. But we only have 3 green balls so we know

that as a rule we must have at least either one black or blue ball in

the sample.

From the above, we obtain the joint probability distribution as:

f(x,y)

0

1

2

Column Totals

0

0

2

70

3

70

5

70

1

3

70

18

70

9

70

30

70

2

9

70

18

70

3

70

30

70

3

3

70

2

70

5

70

Row Totals

15

70

40

70

15

70

1

Continuous Joint Probability Distributions arise from groups of

continuous random variables.

Continuous joint probability distributions are characterized by

the Joint Density Function, which is similar to that of a single

variable case, except that this is in two dimensions.

The joint density function f(x,y) is characterized by the following:

f(x,y) 0, for all (x,y)

f(x,y) dx dy = 1

For any region A lying in the xy plane,

X alone.

its marginal PDF is given by

Example:

A certain farm produces two kinds of eggs on any given day; organic

and non-organic. Let these two kinds of eggs be represented by the

random variables X and Y respectively. Given that the joint

probability density function of these variables is given by

b) Find the marginal PDF of Y

c) Find the P(X 12, Y 12)

Solution:

a) The marginal PDF of X is given by g(x) where

c) P(X 12, Y 12

So far we've looked pairs of random variables where both variables

are either discrete or continuous. A joint pair of random variables

can also be composed of one discrete and one continuous random

variable. This gives rise to what is known as a mixed joint probability

distribution.

random variable, g(x) is the marginal pdf of X.

The cumulative distribution function is given by

Conditional Probability Distributions arise from joint probability

distributions where by we need to know that probability of one event

given that the other event has happened, and the random variables

behind these events are joint.

Conditional probability distributions can be discrete or continuous,

but the follow the same notation i.e.

The conditional probability of variable Y given that X = x is given by:

variables can be found from:

where the above is the probability that X lies between a and b given

that Y = y.

For a set of continuous random variables, the above probability is

given as:

their conditional probability distribution is given by the following:

where g(x) is the marginal pdf of X and h(y) is the marginal pdf of Y.

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