Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Study #2130
December 7-10, 2015
2,635 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
Poll Questions
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Now, Im going to mention some prominent politicians [before Dec-15: prominent Democrats], including [Before Aug-15: people
talked about as possible] candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings
are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know enough about the
person to answer, just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list, but Obama always goes first and
Trump will go last.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Fav
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
87*
11
50
36
90
88
91
89
86
7 *
9
7
9
13
51
43
44
49
49
39
45
47
40
37
4
5
5
6
5
4
4
2
3
8
2
2
2
2
1
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
82
14
43
39
85
77
88
86 *
84
76
14
19
10
12 *
15
19
39
27
30
39
46
43
46
50
58
46
38
33
8
10
6
7
7
8
6
9
4
6
8
11
2
4
2
2
1
5
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
43
15*
36
42
43
33
20 *
13
13
17 *
7 *
8
9
9
8
8
4
2
2
35
25
17
11
11
14
5
5
6
7
4
3
3
3
2
39
60
72
78
78
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
80
12*
42
38
82
73
57
47
37
29
10 *
8
4
12
12
13
42
39
27
23
17
10
40
34
30
24
20
19
6
4
3
8
8
8
3
4
1
4
4
5
8
19
39
41
51
58
Dec-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
53
11*
31
22
35
62
58
44
9
11
11
31
30
23
31
28
21
6
6
6
3
5
5
28
31
45
*We are most confident in the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best
estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 1
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record No first
choice in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
First
Choice
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice
Second
Choice
48
4
39
27
19
33
6
2
3
9
8
Combined
75
23
72
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record No first
choice in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Not sure
No first choice
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
First
Second
48
27
75
42
37
50
57
56
31
23
18
15
15
73
60
68
72
71
19
23
2
3
2
2
1
6
8
10
3
3
8
11
12
5
4
39
33
72
37
30
24
16
5
23
20
20
13
6
60
50
44
29
11
3
6
7
6
4
3
3
8
6
3
3
8
16
8
6
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 2
7
6
19
13
8
8
6
13
23
14
10
Combined
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or could
you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first choice have
been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among all Dem CGs
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=404
n=402
4.9% pts
4.9% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
53
46
42
58
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or could
you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first choice have
been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among Clinton supporters
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=205
n=176
6.9% pts
7.4% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
64
35
46
54
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or could
you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first choice have
been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among Sanders supporters
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=149
n=138
8.1% pts
8.4% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
55
45
46
53
If Bernie Sanders were to announce before the caucuses that Elizabeth Warren would be his running mate as vice
president, would you support Sanders as your first choice, second choice, or would you not support him?
All Dem CGs
n=404
4.9% pts
Clinton
supporters
n=205
6.9% pts
Sanders
supporters
n=149
8.1% pts
39
34
14
13
7
62
21
11
87
3
1
8
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 3
I have some questions comparing [HILLARY CLINTON], [MARTIN OMALLEY], and [BERNIE SANDERS]. Which
one do you think: (Rotate list.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Clinton
OMalley
49
56
45
60
56
38
36
36
29
51
31
60
55
Sanders
9
2
9
2
4
3
8
1
2
5
6
4
3
Not sure
33
27
34
29
32
49
27
56
57
34
52
18
28
9
15
12
9
9
9
29
6
12
9
11
18
13
Im going to mention some stands on issues some candidates have taken. For each, please tell me if you agree or
disagree with this position. (Rotate list.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Agree
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 4
Not
Sure
Disagree
23
40
71
50
6
9
34
45
21
32
78
61
62
53
43
61
14
30
22
32
45
6
8
9
15
15
12
Now, Im going to mention some candidates for the Republican nomination for president. For each, please tell me if
your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know
enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list.)
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
32
32
22
14
10
11
17
9
36
36
32
29
41
25
31
27
25
19
18
19
18
18
9
7
5
13
11
22
28
44
13
53
46
24
28
24
31
33
32
22
17
7
6
10
9
4
5
2
5
3
4
4
13
29
38
51
42*
38
24
19
11
49
59
58
54
45
6
5
6
7
8
32
24
21
29
31
28
36
39
32
29
21
23
19
22
16
12
12
14
10
16
19*
43
30
12
26
24
20
21
18
28
29
20
22
20
33
32
39
36
32
15
17
13
14
11
11
7
7
7
7
13
15
21
21
30
52
33*
12
40
22
10
15
66
64
41 *
22
15
19 *
26
31
13
40
33
27
13
8
12
9
7
8
12
21
40
Jan-15
15
19
11
13
66
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
16
53
15
31
22
31
18
15
22 *
53
59*
38
3
2
4
14
13
19
27
35
23
26
25
15
29
26
40
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
53
38
16
37
26
12
61
61
61
66
59
33
30*
30
28
30
18
17
21
28
23
43
44
40
38
36
22
21
21
21
23
11
10
9
7
7
6
9
9
6
11
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
19
46
14
31
15
34
31 *
33 *
25
22
17
33 *
22
16 *
14
7
8
10
7
7
3
22
22
18
15
14
22
17
11
10
5
12
5
4
4
2
36
45
59
64
76
Fav
Unf
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
39*
54
50
45 *
43
46
50
43
50
45
43
28
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
72
22
84
79
56
50
41
12
8
15
12
8
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
46
39 *
29
28 *
36
39
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
73
61
61
59
58
52
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Very
Favorable
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 5
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
28
30
19
14
12
11
16
25
21
30
29
39
39
38
29
31
24
18
18
18
18
10
7
6
10
12
11
11
17
24
46
15
26
24
20
16
14
43
43
40
41
40
12
15
12
15
12
8
5
5
5
4
10
13
23
23
30
43*
34
28
14
16
51
48 *
56
57
52
34 *
37 *
28
30
30
12
11
18
16
14
39
38
38
41
38
21
26
19
22
20
14
10
9
8
10
15
15
16
13
18
57
38
25
32
17
21
59
61 *
27
26
37
35
63 *
68
27
26
7
4
32
34
20
22
19
16
31
36
18
19
33
32
5
4
10
6
Fav
Unf
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
37
50*
43 *
39 *
55
64
59
48 *
49
34
25
24
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
70
21
70 *
67
60
57
54
20
20
17
20
16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
42
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Very
Favorable
*We are most confident in the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best
estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 6
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
First
Second
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice
6
13
3
31
1
3
2
3
10
1
21
3
5
14
3
20
4
5
2
3
14
2
14
3
4
7
Combined
11
27
6
51
5
8
4
6
24
3
35
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question code No first choice
and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
First
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Second
Combined
11
5
6
9
8
5
4
7
7
10
10
16
15
13
14
27
28
18
10
9
19
14
5
10
47
32
15
19
1
2
4
4
2
1
4
3
3
3
8
7
31
20
51
10
8
5
5
9
10
8
6
19
18
13
11
4
5
2
1
13
11
3
1
17
16
5
2
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 7
First
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 8
Second
Combined
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Not sure
No first choice
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
2*
3
4
9
10
3
4
8
7
6
8
17*
17
2
2
2
1
2
3
1
1
4
5
3
2
5
4
10
14
4
3
5
9
9
7
15
23
10
14
24
9
6
6
3
11
8
12
8
20
14
18
11
2
1
6
4
1
2
6
6
3
3
12
10
21
14
35
19
23
4
1
9
9
2
1
28
32
6
2
3
5
4
2
2
1
2
1
7
5
7
5
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
2
4
5
6
7
11
10
11
7
*Combined does not match the ever/never question below for certain candidates due to rounding.
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 9
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among all Rep CGs
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=400
n=401
4.9% pts
4.9% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
33
66
22
78
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among Cruz supporters
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=120
n=36
9.0% pts
16.6% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
43
55
37
63
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among Trump supporters
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=86
n=80
10.6% pts
11.0% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
45
55
32
67
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among Carson supporters
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=49
n=109
14.1% pts
9.4% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
34
61
15
83
Do you think you will have your mind made up at least a week before the caucus, or will you still be deciding the
week leading up to the caucus?
All Rep CGs
n=400
4.9% pts
Cruz
supporters
n=120
9.0% pts
Trump
supporters
n=86
10.6% pts
Carson
supporters
n=49
14.1% pts
33
43
45
34
30
32
30
23
31
22
26
35
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 10
(Asked only for each candidate NOT answered as first or second choice.) Im going to mention the candidates who are
not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president or
would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as horserace questions. If
selected as first or second choice, code as 1st or 2nd choice and do not ask.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Ever
Never
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
45
41
11
48
50
38
40
39
35
2
2
10
10
9
16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
55
17
26
41
50
47
10
12
18
3
6
20
47
32
15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
51
40
45
44
34
48
48
45
4
5
13
3
3
8
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
31
17
50
49
54
49
27
24
21
5
4
18
19
18
13
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
57
33
54
55
38
23
20
27
6
9
30
17
16
5
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
14
59
28
17
20
59
51
24
28
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
29
61
25
30
29
63
57
43
11
13
25
1
3
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
57
32
60
60
51
31
28
24
3
4
9
6
8
16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
32
53
11
36
41
29
45
40
28
14
14
40
4
5
3
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
19
66
15
19
26
20
63
57
41
18
17
38
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
47
44
43
43
45
45
43
30
4
6
10
9
8
15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
56
19
23
55
60
20
19
5
6
20
15
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 11
Not sure
1st or 2nd
choice
May-15
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
49
18
15
18
Not sure
1st or 2nd
choice
Ever
Never
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
54
40
53
56
51
38
35
26
5
6
11
4
3
12
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
33
30
34
35
36
28
34
29
58
3
3
8
27
32
6
*Combined in the horserace question does not match 1st/2nd choice for certain candidates in the ever/never
question due to rounding.
All other things being equal, which of the following is a more attractive candidate for president at this time: (Read and
rotate list.)
Rep CG
19
30
39
12
A governor, who has worked with a legislature and who has been responsible for balancing a budget
A U.S. senator, who has involvement with national security and international relations and diplomatic issues
A government outsider who has handled complex issues and managed teams
Not sure
I have some questions comparing just [BEN CARSON], [TED CRUZ], [MARCO RUBIO], and [DONALD TRUMP].
Which one do you think: (Rotate candidate names and rotate list.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Carson
Cruz
Rubio
Trump
23
10
18
10
6
24
22
7
5
5
12
23
6
11
34
31
31
34
22
28
34
24
22
32
34
32
27
26
25
13
29
19
13
19
18
10
15
13
18
7
10
20
11
34
12
24
49
17
16
50
50
35
25
6
48
30
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Not
sure
7
13
10
13
10
12
10
8
8
16
11
32
10
14
Have you attended any events hosted by Republican candidates this caucus season? (If yes, ask:) For how many different
candidates have you attended at least one event?
Rep CG
2
1
1
4
9
9
73
-
10 or more
8-9
6-7
4-5
2-3
One
No, have not attended any candidate events this season
Not sure
Have you signed pledge cards for any Republican candidates in this caucus season? (If yes, ask:) For how many
candidates have you signed pledge cards?
Rep CG
1
3
95
-
10 or more
8-9
6-7
4-5
2-3
One
No, have not signed any pledge cards this caucus season
Not sure
29
47
13
11
Establishment
Anti-establishment
Neither (VOL)
Not sure
Which ONE of the following factions of the Republican party describes you best as you think about which candidate to
support: (Rotate list.)
Rep CG
24
32
35
10
Tea party
Evangelical conservative
Mainstream Republican
Not sure
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PAGE 13
Im going to mention some stands on issues some candidates have taken. For each, please tell me if you agree or
disagree with this position. (Rotate list.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Agree
Disagree
Not
Sure
57
54
67
35
37
25
7
9
9
40
49
56
35
5
16
74
61
58
21
28
20
4
11
22
44
61
41
31
15
8
Study #2125
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error 4.9 percentage points for Democrats
Study #2122
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points
Study #2118
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.7 percentage points for Democrats
Study #2113
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for each party
Study #2104
425 Republican likely caucusgoers
426 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.8 percentage points for each party
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