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ABSTRACT
As a traditional crop in many developing countries, millet, by virtue of its high nutritive qualities,
longer shelf-life, tolerance to drought and provision of multiple security has served and continues to
serve as a relevant crop for enhancing food security and reducing poverty in Togo (and other West
African countries). Limited marketing opportunities however, amidst shifting dietary patterns, low
priority of millet in research support, and policies favoring production of tradable commodities at the
expense of non-tradable staples has led to a general stagnation in yields, and significant declines
in acreage and output of millet in Togo. Prompted by fear of a possible disappearance/extinction of
millet from the countrys agrarian landscape in the near future (thereby posing future food insecurity
and poverty threat), the current study (with the objective of analyzing trends in area harvested of
millet in Togo and determinants thereof), through the use of standard and improved acreage
response models (within the Nerlovian framework) sourced drawing stakeholder attention to current
state of the millet sub-sector in Togo and making vital future policy prescriptions. Given extremely
low coefficient of adaptation and high long-run estimates observed in this study, should current
neglect of the millet subsector continue, there exists a greater chance of extinction of millet from
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
*Corresponding author: E-mail: boansidavid@rocketmail.com;
Togos agrarian landscape. Efforts to prevent such extinction and to revitalize the sub-sector should
place much emphasis on increasing both acreages and yields (through investing in high yielding
varieties and in research and development in line with production and trade) of millet in the country,
on ensuring increased supply of cheap labor (through minimization of rural-urban migration), and
on further promoting current upland rice/millet mixed cropping systems in the unimodal rainfall
zones (to ensure the sub-sector benefits from production incentives for the rice subsector). Pricing
policy governing the millet sub-sector should as well be revised to help minimize the high long-run
responsiveness of millet producers to price incentives for the maize and yam sub-sectors (as this
significantly accounts for drift of millet producers to the maize and yam sub-sectors). In addition,
producers and other stakeholders should be given enough incentives to appropriately invest in the
millet subsector.
Keywords: Food security; acreage response; adaptation; relative price ratios; trends.
Millet (be it pearl millet, finger millet, tef, fonio,
foxtail millet, proso/common millet, barnyard
millet, little millet, kodo millet, or Jobs tears) has
through production, processing, marketing and
consumption, been and continues to be a vital
branch of the Agriculture sector in many
developing countries worldwide and a staple food
for over 90 million people [4] in West Africa, East
Africa, Central and Southern Africa, and Asian
(including consumers in India, Nepal, Pakistan,
Russian Federation, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, China,
and Kazakhstan). Dubbed the Camel [5] among
crops, millet has the ability to tolerate drought,
and produces reasonable yields even on
marginal/infertile soils and in areas with high
temperatures, short growing seasons, and acidic
soils with poor water-holding capacity [2]. It can
survive in areas with rainfall below 300mm [2],
while
common
policyand
stateprioritized/political crops like rice and maize
require a minimum of 500 mm of rains to survive.
In spite of the unique attributes of millet and the
vital roles it plays in poverty reduction and food
security in Togo, the area (and consequent
output) harvested of millet in Togo has been
declining continuously for over five decades now,
while acreages for policy-prioritized crops like
maize, rice, and yam (among others) have on the
contrary been increasing. With the country
having observed increments in acreages for rice,
maize, yam and groundnut at respective annual
rates of 2.19%, 3.77%, 1.65% and 2.19%
between the years 1966 and 2012, area
harvested of millet decreased at a rate of 2.57%
per annum between the aforementioned years.
With this annual decrease in acreage of millet
and consequent output thereof, the share of
millet in total agricultural GDP decreased from
2
11.22% in 1966 to as low as 0.39% in 2012.
1. INTRODUCTION
Togo has for several decades now been one of
the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa
(fourth poorest in West Africa 1 -After Liberia,
Niger and Mali), with inhabitants of the unimodal
rainfall zones of the country Central to Northern
Togo- deemed relatively poorer than those in the
south. In the unimodal rainfall zones, production,
processing and marketing of traditional staples
(like sorghum and millet), tradable cereals
(specifically rice and maize), legumes (common
beans and groundnuts), and exportable
commodities (including yam and cotton) remain
the primary livelihood for majority of the rural,
peri-urban and urban poor. Among these crops
however, millet is deemed the most important
crop for poverty reduction and food security by
virtue of its relatively high nutritive qualities
(relatively richer in protein and iron than wheat
and rice Millet Network of India et al. [1]) and
longer shelf-life (millet can be stored for more
than 10 years without spoilage - ACET [2]).
Besides its role as a staple diet, feed for livestock
in many rural and peri-urban communities in
Togo, and fuel and soil additive for improving soil
fertility, stems from various millet varieties have
over three decades now been used for a wide
range of purposes including construction of hut
walls, fences and thatches, and for the
production of mats, baskets, brooms and
sunshades across the Sahelian agro-ecological
belt of West and Central Africa [3]. By this, millet
produces multiple security [4]. Although
consumed nationwide and in neighboring
countries through minor intra-regional trade,
millet production occurs solely in the unimodal
rainfall zones of the country where environmental
conditions are primarily unfavorable.
1
http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-23-poorest-countries-inthe-world-2015-7?r=US&IR=T
Although a non-political
political but traditional cereal like
millet, area harvested of sorghum has however
been increasing since the year 1978 ((when the
first data was recorded)) at a rate of 1.94%. This
in part could be due to the fact that, Government
(current and previous)) of Togo has in the
countrys Poverty Reduction Strategy placed
much emphasis on growth of tradable crops such
as maize, sorghum, rice, cowpeas, yams and
manioc/cassava at the expense of semi/non
semi/nontradable
(yet
food-security
security
relevant)
relevant
commodities including
luding millet [6]. As shown in
Fig. 1, area harvested of millet decreased from
394, 000 ha in the year 1966 to 56,988 ha in
2012 (a decrease of 85.54%).
). The area
harvested of rice increased from 30,725 ha to
63,000 ha (representing an increase of
105.04%),
%), while acreages for maize, yam and
groundnut increased respectively from 192,075
ha, 30,000ha and 43,000 ha to 693,035 ha,
84,000ha and 67,857 ha between the years 1966
and 2012 (representing
representing increments of 260.81%
for maize, 180% for yam, and 57.81% for
groundnut).
Acreage (Ha)
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
Acreage-Rice (Ha)
Acreage-Maize (Ha)
Acreage-Millet
Millet (Ha)
Acreage-Sorghum (Ha)
Acreage-Yam (Ha)
Acreage-Groundnut
Groundnut
As of the time data were gathered, rainfall data for the synoptic stat
stations
ions in the unimodal rainfall zones covered only the period
1980-2009
3. LITERATURE REVIEW
As rational beings, farmers tend to adjust their
production decisions as a response to dynamics
in both price and non-price factors with a mindset
of increasing their output (to meet household
food needs and sell surpluses) and maximizing
profits from the mix of crops they produce on the
limited land at their disposure. Maximization of
such profits is sought either through
intensification (emphasis on increasing yields) or
extensification (emphasis on increasing acreages
cultivated). Increasing production of a crop, as
suggested by Defoer et al [9], can be achieved
either through area expansion, increase in
cropping intensity or increase in yield. In
assessing supply response of crops to
various indicators however, Behrman [10],
1.4
400000
1.2
350000
y = -0.001x + 0.6554
R = 0.0042
300000
250000
0.8
200000
0.6
150000
y = -3472.9x + 204374
R = 0.5066
100000
50000
y = -2053.8x + 121396
R = 0.5899
0.2
0
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
0.4
Yield (t/ha)
Year
Production (t) -Millet
Linear (Production (t) -Millet)
Acreage (Ha)-Millet
Linear (Acreage (Ha)-Millet)
Fig. 2. Trends in millet production, acreage and yield for Togo (1966-2012)
Source: Authors construct with data from FAOSTAT
4
Computed by regressing log of the respective supply indicators on time trend (t) and calculating the rate based on the
coefficient of t using the following expressing:
1 100
(1)
=
+
1
4. ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
Initiated to help explain farmer cropping
decisions based on price expectation and their
partial adjustment to dynamics in a given
agricultural system, the Nerlovian framework
; 0
(2)
(3)
(8)
= 1 *
(9)
In carrying out similar transformation for the nonprice factors (yield and rainfall) specified in
equation (1), and substituting all three
transformations into equation (1), the primary
equation now becomes
1 =
2
3
Where
1 - Long run elasticity
4 - Short run elasticity
- Coefficient of adaptation; 0 1
5. MODEL
In this study, effort is made to extend the skeletal
model expressed in equation (7), through
incorporation of exchange rate and rural
population (proxy for availability of agricultural
labour) as presumed and relevant determinants
of area harvested. To estimate the magnitude
and effect of presumed determinants of area
harvested of millet in Togo, two acreage
response models were used; a standard acreage
response model (based on the use of absolute
real (Stand-alone) producer prices) and an
improved acreage response model (based on the
use of relative real producer price ratios).
Although supply response studies have so far in
literature been primarily founded on absolute
(stand-alone) producer prices (real and/or
nominal), it is presumed that farmers do not
Koyck Transformation involves transformation of an infinite geometric lag model into a finite model with lagged dependent
variable, thereby making estimation feasible. The transformed model is however likely to suffer from serial correlation in errors
and is only when tests for serial correlation prove non-existence of serially correlated errors that estimated relationships can be
deemed reliable.
6. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
Over the scope of this study (1980-2009), area
harvested of millet and the entire real price
variables depicted declining trends with each
decreasing at annual rates above 1%.
Area harvested of millet decreased at a rate of
1.49% per annum, while real price of millet,
maize, yam and rice decreased at respective
annual rates of 1.25%, 2.10%, 1.80% and 1.99%
per annum. Rates of decline for the relative price
ratios were comparatively lower than declines in
absolute real prices. Ratios for maize and millet,
yam and millet, and rice and millet declined at
respective annual rates of -0.86%, 0.56% and
0.75%. Among the three relative real price ratios,
the ratio between rice and millet had the highest
mean value (1.16), while that between yam and
millet had the lowest (0.90). Yield, exchange
rate, rural population and average total annual
rainfall depicted increasing trends with annual
rates of 0.16%, 2.72%, 2.12% and 0.32%
respectively recorded for these variables. In
ascertaining dispersion/variability among the
variables, area harvested of millet, yield of millet,
exchange rate, and real price of maize hauled
relatively higher dispersions about their
respective means than the rest of the variables.
Average total annual rainfall had the lowest
dispersion about its mean. Detail on means,
minimum and maximum values for the respective
variables are shown in Table 1.
6
(Average for 4 (out of 7) synoptic rainfall stations in the unimodal rainfall zones -: Dapaong, Mango, Sokode and Kara. The
three excluded are Niamtougou , Sotouboua and Atakpame (which has a unimodal rainfall pattern although in the Plateau
region). The first two were excluded due to missing data for 1980 and 1981 (in Sotouboua) at these stations. In addition, the
country is yet to record millet production in Sotouboua and Atakpame, as production is concentered in Dapaong, Mango,
Niamtougou, Kara and Sokode (You et al. [29]).
Units
Obs Mean
Std. D
Min
Max
HMil
YMil
RPrMil
RPrMai
RPrYam
RPrRic
RPrMaiMil
RPrYamMil
RPrRicMil
Exr
Rulpop
TUmRain
Ha
t/Ha
XOF
XOF
XOF
XOF
Index
Index
Index
XOF/US$
000 pers.
mm
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
34,573.68
0.23
38,312.08
52,549.74
35,233.02
42,495.71
0.21
0.17
0.22
147.59
535.71
112.4659
49,137.00
0.26
94,683.18
93,635.33
107,429.00
138,349.00
0.68
0.58
0.84
211.28
2,050
976.175
163,300
1.30
244,318.20
292,467.80
238,763.00
278,105.30
1.37
1.17
1.90
733.04
3,867
1412.625
94,436.80
0.64
174,973.90
164,493.60
154,949.30
198,530.00
0.94
0.90
1.16
450.04
2,952.63
1157.426
CoV,% Growth
rate, %
36.61
-1.49
35.94
0.16
21.90
-1.25
31.95
-2.10
22.74
-1.80
21.41
-1.99
22.34
-0.86
18.89
-0.557
18.97
-0.75
32.79
2.72
18.14
2.12
9.717
0.32
Table 2. Regression output for standard and improved acreage response models
Dependent variable
RST UVWRX
log YMil&
logRPrMil&
logRPrMai&
logRPrYam&
logRPrRic&
logRPrMaiMil&
logRPrYamMil&
logRPrRicMil&
log Exr&
log Rulpop&
log TUmRain&
log HMil&
_cons
Number of obs
F-stat
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj. R-squared
Root MSE
Durbin Alt (h) 2
Prob> 2
B-P/C-W Het test - 2(1)
Prob> 2
Doornik-H Norm - 2(2)
Prob> 2
Shapiro-Wilk W
z
Prob> z
ADF of Residual
Mean VIF
Coefficient of adaptation,
-0.371**
(0.173)
0.814*
(0.448)
-0.594
(0.383)
0.975***
(0.168)
-2.472
(8.812)
29
15.28
0.000
0.879
0.821
0.151
0.015
0.903
2.49
0.115
0.379
0.828
-1.016
0.845
-4.265***
4.97
0.025
-0.364
-14.840
0.413
32.560
-0.156
-23.760
1.018
39.000
-0.469**
(0.196)
-0.445*
(0.251)
0.737**
(0.316)
-0.395**
(0.165)
0.593**
(0.265)
-0.582
(0.377)
0.945***
(0.158)
2.385
(3.841)
29
17.69
0.000
0.876
0.827
0.148
0.252
0.616
2.67
0.103
0.255
0.880
-0167
0.566
-4.220***
3.23
0.055
-0.278
-8.527
-0.251
-8.091
0.361
13.400
-0.388
-7.182
0.301
10.782
-0.153
-10.852
0.987
17.182
increase in area harvested of millet in the shortrun (significant at the 5% level) and 13.40%
increase in the long-run. These relatively high
long-run estimates (compared to estimates
stressed on in the literature review section for
rice and maize and those observed in other
studies) reflect a highly constrained and
neglected sub-sector where producers have
12
8. CONCLUSION
TIONS
AND
RECOMMENDA-
COMPETING INTERESTS
Author has declared that no competing interests
exist.
REFERENCES
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
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Millet
Network
of
India,
Deccan
Development Society, and FIAN, India.
Millets: future of food & farming. MINI and
DDS, Andhra Pradesh, India; FIAN, India,
Hiedelberg, Germany; 2009.
Available:http://www.swaraj.org/shikshanta
r/millets.pdf (Accessed on 02 September
2015)
ACET. The future of traditional cereals.
West Africa Trends Newsletter, Issue 8,
African
Center
for
Economic
Transformation; 2014.
Felch D. Agrometeorology of pearl millet
production.
WMO/CAgM
Guide
to
Agricultural
Meteorological
Practices
(GAMP), Chapter 13D. 2007.
IFAD. Farmer participatory testing of
technologies to increase sorghum and
pearl millet production in the Sahel; 1999.
Available:http://www.ifad.org/grants/tags/4
42.htm
CGIAR. Millets and sorghum: climate
smart grains for a warmer world. CGIAR
Development Dialogues, 2014.
Available:http://dialogues.cgiar.org/blog/mil
lets-sorghum-climate-smart-grainswarmer-world/
(Accessed
on
02
September 2015)
MAEP.
National Rice
Development
Strategy (NRDS). Ministry of Agriculture,
Livestock and Fisheries, Republic of Togo;
2010.
Brown M, Higgins N, Hintermann B. A
model of West African millet prices in rural
markets. CEPE Working Paper No. 69,
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8.
9.
10.
11.
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18.
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20.
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23.
24.
25.
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27.
28.
29.
15
APPENDIX
Table A1. Cross-correlations among variables
log HMil&
log YMil&
logRPrMil&
logRPrMai&
logRPrYam&
logRPrRic&
log Exr&
log Rulpop&
log TUmRain&
log HMil&
log HMil&
log YMil&
logRPrMaiMil&
logRPrYamMil&
logRPrRicMil&
log Exr&
log Rulpop&
log TUmRain&
log HMil&
RST[\]VWRXZ
RST [cRdSdXZ
1.0000
0.7293
0.6151
0.7042
-0.4425
-0.5028
-0.0636
0.0870
1.0000
0.7663
0.7483
-0.5853
-0.6940
-0.3072
0.0340
1.0000
0.2602
-0.2916
1.0000
0.2503
1.0000
0.7900
1.0000
-0.6781
-0.5019
-0.8247
-0.8478
-0.3176
-0.2165
0.0112
0.1146
Improved acreage response model
RST[\]V^WVWRXZ RST[\]Y^_VWRXZ RST[\][W`VWRXZ RST ab]XZ
1.0000
0.5371
0.4463
-0.3554
-0.4461
-0.3765
-0.0484
1.0000
0.2602
-0.2916
1.0000
0.7322
-0.2162
-0.3048
-0.2710
-0.0906
1.0000
-0.0042
-0.3407
-0.1754
0.0201
1.0000
0.6958
0.1143
-0.5154
1.0000
0.6958
0.1143
-0.5154
1.0000
RST UVWRXZ
1.00000
0.2503
1.000
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2016 Boansi; This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is properly cited.
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