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2015 issue 22

December 17, 2015

Last Chapters…
What a way to end 2015. The Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to raise interest rates and begin pulling back its
unprecedented support for the American economy and financial markets. The shift, ending an era of easy money that
helped save the nation from another Great Depression, had been slow in coming , and the years of easing had created its
own distortions and dependencies. The Fed also pledged to wean the nation off its stimulus slowly, an acknowledgement
that further progress is not guaranteed and that the central bank is operating in uncharted territory. In addition, the shift
amounts to a vote of confidence that the American economy finally stands somewhat more resilient. - - perhaps uniquely
in the world. Yet we cannot ignore the reality of a poor global growth trajectory, dogged by crashing commodity prices, a
slowdown in China and new traumas in the speculative high-yield and emerging markets. Indeed, even the U.S. economy
has yet to produce a full-throttled expansion. We will continue to highlight the nuances, peculiarities of the regional and
sectoral differences in business recovery and worlds of finance. Fasten your seatbelts for 2016.

OPEC

Just Keep Pumping

Commodity Rout

Oil prices fell sharply after the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries decided to raise the group’s production
ceiling to 31.5 million barrels a day.

Junk bonds are headed for their
first annual loss since the credit
crisis, raising concerns that a sixyear U.S. economic expansion and
stock-market boom may be on
borrowed time

Is a credit apocalypse awaiting us in 2016?

CHINA RESERVES SLIDE FURTHER
China’s massive war chest of foreign exchange
reserves dropped to its lowest level since February
2013 as the central bank sold dollars to prop up the
yuan amid rising capital outflows. Foreign currency
reserves fell by $87.2bn to $3.44 trillion at the end
of November, from $3.53 trillion a month earlier,
according to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).
This is the lowest level since February, and extends
this year’s decline to $405bn.

ABRAHAM GULKOWITZ
abe@gulkowitz.com
917-402-9039

The first rise in US interest rates since 2006
does not portend immediate emergingmarket external financial crises. But EM
sovereign ratings are likely to continue on the
downward trajectory they first took in mid2013. This would be consistent with their
closer historical alignment to the value of the
US dollar and global commodity prices than
the level of US interest rates.

FED should not fear tightening  

BIS warns against policy concerns due to anxiety 
over market volatility or corporate bond fallout fears 
Central banks should press ahead with plans to tighten monetary
policy and not let market volatility sway their judgment, the
Bank for International Settlements has warned ahead of the
expected first rate rise by the US Federal Reserve in nine years.

Federal Reserve raises key
interest rate after historic era

ECB to Extend Asset-Purchase Program to 2017 or Longer
Region’s unpredictable geopolitical situation will affect policy in future, says
Mario Draghi

The European Central Bank extended its
quantitative easing program by 6 months or beyond
while cutting its overnight deposit rate further into
negative territory by 10 basis points to -0.30
percent beginning on December 9, 2015 to penalize
banks for parking money at the ECB and encourage
lending in the overall economy.
The ECB is
undertaking a €60bn per month quantitative easing
program of government bonds that was extended
today until March 2017 from its earlier end point of
September 2016.

The PunchLine...

December 17, 2015

In This Issue
• Engines of Growth

• Last Chapters…
What a way to end 2015! The Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to
raise interest rates and begin pulling back its unprecedented support
for the American economy and financial markets. The shift, ending an
era of easy money that helped save the nation from another Great
Depression, had been slow in coming, and the years of easing had
created its own distortions and dependencies. The Fed also pledged
to wean the nation off its stimulus slowly, an acknowledgement that
further progress is not guaranteed and that the central bank is
operating in uncharted territory. In addition, the shift amounts to a
vote of confidence that the American economy finally stands
somewhat more resilient. - - perhaps uniquely in the world. Yet we
cannot ignore the reality of a poor global growth trajectory, dogged by
crashing commodity prices, a slowdown in China and new traumas in
the speculative high-yield and emerging markets. Indeed, even the
U.S. economy has yet to produce a full-throttled expansion. We will
continue to highlight the nuances, peculiarities of the regional and
sectoral differences in business recovery and worlds of finance.
Fasten your seatbelts for 2016.
(pg 1)







In This Issue
It’s the Combo effect…
The Return to Normal… ?
You Can’t Handle the Truth !
Market Roar…
New Perspectives…
Dislocation, Dislocation

(pg 2)
(pg 3)
(pg 4)
(pg 5)
(pg 6)
(pg 7)
(pg 8)

Intense and confusing stress signals emanating from around the globe
but particularly from the commodity markets, high yield and key
emerging markets such as China, Brazil, Russia have confounded
investors and contributed to intermittent bouts of severe volatility.
Despite massive easing, most of the global economy still faces
woefully inadequate growth prospects and difficult policy options. The
U.S. stands alone in the shift in monetary policy and the improvement
in job markets. Very obvious financial vulnerabilities and serious
geopolitical concerns are aggravating the uncertainty. And let’s not
forget that many of the challenges are not fleeting, and many cannot be
resolved easily or quickly…
(pg 9)











Households…
New Reference Points…
The Likelihood of Unlikely Events...
Risk… Now You See it…
Credit…
A New Geography of Business…
Pumping Iron …
The DNA of Business…
Real Estate and Construction…
More Real Estate…
Will Life Ever be the Same?

Contact information:

Abraham Gulkowitz
phone: 917-402-9039

Headlines and data appearing in The Punch Line came from widely available publications including
national and international newspapers, trade journals, economic and industrial bulletins and news websites.

2

email:   abe@gulkowitz.com

(pg 10)
(pg 11)
(pg 12)
(pg 13)
(pg 14)
(pg 15)
(pg 16)
(pg 17)
(pg 18)
(pg 19)
(pg 20)

The index for utilities dropped 4. 3 . 2015 It’s the Combo Effect … A sharp slowdown in China's GDP growth rate to below 5% during 20162018 would disrupt global trade and hinder growth.6 percent in November after decreasing 0. The index for mining fell 1.5 percent of its 2012 average..4 percent in October. as unusually warm weather held down the demand for heating. December 17. with significant knock-on effects for emerging markets and global corporates. total industrial production in November was 1.2 percent below its year-earlier level. manufacturing production was unchanged from October. with much of this decrease attributable to sizable declines for coal mining and for oil and gas well drilling and servicing.The PunchLine.1 percent in November. according to new analysis… US industrial production declined 0. At 106..3 percent. In November.

and have recently clamped down on unauthorized transfers. Sandwiched between these leviathans is the small matter of a Swiss central bank policy meeting. yet accounts for less than 4 percent of central bank reserves.The PunchLine. The yuan has made it into the global lender’s basket of reserve currencies. getting into the IMF’s club is itself a reward.. despite China’s patchy reform record and clumsy market interventions. Beijing’s bureaucrats still monitor cross-border capital flows. the effectiveness of the intervention is diminishing each time. However. The freely traded Japanese yen has been an official reserve currency for decades.S. Forex forecast clouded by policy fallout Over time. emerging market currencies will stay weak and China’s renminbi will depreciate gradually. John Normand. But that process – if it happens at all – is likely to be slow. When? By how much? Answering these follow-up questions in depth becomes trickier. but it will not be long before the weather turns. leading to pessimistic expectations of both the stock market and the macroeconomic outlook. Currency strategists drawing up their predictions for 2016 largely agree on some broad themes — the US dollar will get stronger. China is still a long way from letting free markets set the value of its currency. sums up his peers’ sentiment: “I’m more confident about the second half of 2016 than the first. But a slowing economy. Joining the IMF’s reserve basket is a symbolic feat. dollar. 4 . JPMorgan’s head of foreign exchange research. 2015 The Return to Normal ? Markets bet on ‘great divergence’ Dollar strengthens against leading currencies Investors prepare for transatlantic rif The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has cut interest rates and required reserve ratios five times this year -. Persuading investors to want more yuan will be tougher..the fastest pace of monetary policy adjustment since the 2008-09 financial crisis. China’s new status may encourage central banks and other investors to hold more assets in renminbi. For Beijing politicians.” The first-half outlook for FX is built on the near-certainty that December will bring long-awaited monetary policy divergence — a Federal Reserve rate rise and further easing by the European Central Bank. December 17. Weaker renminbi and a strong dollar are expected in 2016 but the devil is in the details The currency market forecast looks reasonably clear from here. lower interest rates and capital outflows all suggest the yuan will continue to slip against the resurgent U.

Though subpar sales and profits warrant caution. December 17. in a frantic search for higher returns. tripping the total commitment. That has triggered a wave of redemption requests from fund investors and some funds liquidating their assets.443 percent.. the recovery should persist and that would limit the downside for corporate credit.. and Spain’s 2‐year securities dropped to all‐time lows as well. . Euro‐area government bond yields fell to record lows after data showed the region’s annual inflation rate remained well below the central bank’s target in November. The deeper question is whether China's accelerating integration with the global financial system will catalyze transformative change in China's state-market relationship or whether global market actors will adapt to accommodate the peculiar Chinese mode of financial governance. 2015 YouCan’t Handle the Truth… Let's Take the “Con” out of Economics CUTS BOTH WAYS… The decision on November 30 to include the Chinese currency within the IMF's basket of currencies has little immediate impact. Yields on Finland. but there may be important long-term consequences. Investor poured $240 billion into junk-bond funds since 2008. The yield on German 2‐year notes slid to a record low of minus 0. The junk-bond market is set to post its first annual loss since 2008 after seven years of easy credit. Netherland.The PunchLine. Corporate Credit May Bend Hopefully But Not Break Asia Manufacturing remains mired in stagnation Oil prices declined again 5 The recent widening of the high-yield bond spread stems from less confidence in 2016’s outlook. boosting the argument for additional stimulus from the European Central Bank.

. 2015 The Market Roar… History May Not Repeat But It Often Rhymes Oil prices tumbled towards their 11-year low on Monday. 6 .. December 17.The PunchLine. amid growing concerns that the global oversupply would worsen in coming months.

4 3.3 5.1 Non-Auto Less Gasoline.7 5.7 3.2 3.7 -0.7 Food Service & Drinking Places Sales 0..6 4. December 17. 2015 New Perspectives Think it Through… Retail Spending(%) Nov Nov Y/Y 2014 2013 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Total Retail Sales & Food Services 0.2 1.6 2.9 3.9 9.1 2.7 6.5 3.0 Excluding Autos 0..3 2.0 4.8 -19.8 7.4 4.9 The liquidation of a Third Avenue Management fund may prompt re-examination of whether mutual funds might be systemically important in some circumstances.9 3.4 3.9 Retail Sales 0. 7 .5 8.2 1.The PunchLine.3 Gasoline Stations -0.3 -2.7 5.4 0. Building Supplies & Food Services 0.7 4.0 Motor Veh & Parts -0.7 3.

S. 8 . Rates Continued U..S.S. surpassing government debt levels and potentially exposing their economies. December 17. 2015 Dislocation. dollar and global commodity prices than the level of U. dollar strength and commodity price weakness imply further pressure on emerging market sovereign ratings. Rising Sovereign Risk from Private Sector Debt in Emerging Markets Private sector debt has risen rapidly in key emerging markets over the past 10 years. The seemingly imminent first rise in U.S. interest rates since 2006 does not portend immediate emerging market external financial crises. Dislocation A storm is coming to the credit markets Emerging Markets More Vulnerable to the Dollar and Commodities than U.S.. Dislocation. financial systems and sovereign creditworthiness to downside risks. But sovereign ratings are likely to continue on the downward trajectory they first took in mid2013.The PunchLine. This would be consistent with their closer historical alignment to the value of the U. interest rates.

gov’t data showed. and worsethan-expected recession behind the move. Brazil’s sovereign credit rating was cut to junk status by Fitch Ratings. 2015 Engines of Growth… No cheer as China yuan hits four‐and‐a‐half‐year low. It’s now three quarters of negative GDP stats for BRAZIL.96 per dollar following the downgrade. and it’s a far worse one at that. leaving a trade deficit of $9. with a negative outlook. India's exports fell 24.4 percent (y/y) in November to $20 billion amid a global demand slowdown and plunging commodity prices.3 percent to 3.3 percent to $30 billion. concerns extend beyond the hard‐hit energy and base‐metals industries to core business sales. oil at seven‐year low OPEC’s Faith in Oil Demand Rise Rests on Shaky Ground China services sector key to growth revival High hopes for healthcare and entertainment from Beijing and investors alike Sluggish corporate revenues and subpar operating profits warn of further erosion of corporate credit quality. Meanwhile. 9 . imports declined by 30. The agency cited the country’s ballooning budget deficit. Moreover.The PunchLine. political turmoil. which became the second major ratings agency to strip the country of its investment grade this year. The downgrade left Brazil’s rating at ‘BB+’...8 billion for the month. That’s the first three-quarter streak of negative GDP growth since 1999. Shrinking for the 12th consecutive month. December 17. The Brazilian real dropped as much as 2.

the first one since 2006.. December 17. according to a new report today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5..3 trillion and the value of real estate rose $482 billion.23 trillion in Q3 After an impressive recovery in recent years.S.S. economy added 211.000 new jobs for the year‐ended November 2015 will prove to be unsustainable.000 higher. Over the past 3 months. household net worth fell $1. private‐sector payrolls’ average monthly increase of 220.The PunchLine. 2015 Households – Brave New World The U. Unless core business sales accelerate sufficiently.000 non-farm job gain was close to the average monthly gain of 237. November’s 211.000 over the prior 12 months and puts the U. U. this past quarter.000 non-farm payroll jobs in November. but some of the areas worst hit by the housing crash were still continuing to struggle. the value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities decreased $2.S. moderate increases… Rising home values have helped more underwater homeowners surface in the third quarter.S. job gains have averaged 218. Job revisions for September and October were revised 35. economy on a likely track for an upcoming rate hike. during the next Federal Reserve meeting in mid-December. Small Business Optimism Collapses in November After Three Stagnant Months 10 .000 per month. single family housing… the best that we can expect is continued. Unaffordable rents have become drag on longer-term US growth Forget a sharp V-shaped recovery in U.0 percent.

December 17. 2015 New Reference Points… 11 ..The PunchLine..

This rebuke follows angry reaction from Moscow to NATO foreign ministers agreeing on December 2 to invite Montenegro to join the pact. This is something central banks in Switzerland. NATO's ties with Russia are at an alltime low following Russia's continuing interference in Ukraine as well as the recent downing of a Russian Su-24 jet by Turkey. Some of the heaviest declines are in shares of companies with heavy debt loads Global oil markets will remain oversupplied at least until the end of 2016 as demand growth slows and OPEC output booms. Energy Sector Rout Intensifies on Mild Weather.7 percent annually. the International Energy Agency said Uncertainty swirls over outlook Russia-NATO tensions will grow in 2016 Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karassin said that Russia is worried by NATO's growing activity in the South Caucasus and criticised Georgia's desire for membership of the alliance. Denmark. but better than an 18.. putting oil prices under further pressure. Stephen Poloz discussed some of the bank's framework for thinking about potential responses to future incidents of financial distress. official data showed… Exports decreased 6. the General Administration of Customs reported. and Sweden and — most notably — the European Central Bank have all put in place. China’s slowdown may yet be responsible for a slowing in the US housing market China and Japan Continue to Liquidate US Treasury Holdings Rate rise belies frailties in US economy Too many have become junkies to extra low interest rates… With much unfinished business left from the euro-area crisis.. 2015 The Likelihood of Unlikely Events The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) published a press release alerting financial institutions to the increasing frequency and severity of cyber attacks involving extortion. 12 . OPEC The governor of the Bank of Canada just said the three most controversial words in central banking: "negative interest rates. BoC Gov. EU single market fundamentals are now also in question China's exports declined for the fifth straight month on weak global demand. Poloz mentioned negative interest rates. December 17.“ In a speech on Tuesday. At the same time. while imports dropped less than expected in November.8 percent in November from last year. And among the tactics the BoC could choose to take in the future.The PunchLine.8 percent fall seen in October. imports slid 8.

Marathon Petroleum ultimately weighted the “no-grow” offering to the shorter tranches. three-part offering into the teeth of the declines. 2. at T+150 and T+175.5 billion. the company placed M&A-driven long bonds on Sept. Marathon Petroleum marketed a $1. sparking the start of a trend of rapid widening in credit spreads across the energy sector. warned of decoupling supply and demand in the oil space. or 20 bps wide of initial whispers this morning. For reference. making for challenging price discovery. 2015 RISK Now You See it and Now You Don’t Credit spreads referencing oil-and-gas and metals-and-mining companies spiraled wider again. 13 .. after setting the spread for a $250 million 2045 bond offering at T+290.The PunchLine. 2014 at T+165.. as oil prices explored new lows. December 17. respectively. just two days before offshore driller Noble Corp. The $600 million of three-year notes and $650 million of five-year notes were set at the midpoints of guidance ranges and in line with early whispers.

Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter came in at $39. December 17. with more than $5. $113 billion of the high yield universe was bid below 50 cents while $304 billion was bid below 80 cents . as weak commodity prices will continue to challenge energy and metals/mining issuers The energy sector default rate is projected to hit 11% in 2016." said Gov. falling short of expectations from Citi analysts. high yield bond default rate at 4. This unusual move by Third Avenue Feds Win Fight Over Risky-Looking Loans Controversial push on leveraged loans extends regulators’ reach beyond banks and across entire financial system Management funds. which predicted $49. high-yielding bonds has blocked investors from getting their money back.5 billion of defaults in December. 2015 Credit Matters-Know Risk Many Excel in Strategy. the most tallied since January The current energy TTM rate is at nearly 7%. like junk bonds.7 million during last year's third quarter. RETAIL Claire's Stores bonds slump on third-quarter results miss Puerto Rico Governor Predicts a Default "Puerto Rico will default in January or in May .5%.2 million compared to $50.The PunchLine.7% mark seen in 1999 Excluding energy and metals/mining.6 million for the quarter. The first-lien 9% notes due 2019 fell five points to a 70. 14 Fitch Ratings forecasts the 2016 U. Alejandro García Padilla said. leveraged loans and emerging-market debt. eclipsing the 9.. which manages $8 billion in customer assets. citing difficult trading conditions for its securities. highlights a long-standing fear among regulators and economists that too many investors have piled into risky areas of the bond market.5% default rate The current trailing 12-month (TTM) rate is at 3.there is no money.S. while the E&P rate is closing in on 12% At the end of Friday.25/71.. the remainder of the high yield universe is expected to finish 2016 with a 1. trade data show.25 market.3%. Bonds banking Claire’s Stores slumped today after the Apollo-owned jewelry and accessories retailer reported third-quarter earnings that fell short of analyst expectations. Few in the Management of Risk A large mutual fund specializing in risky.

up from 162. December 17.41 billion (-8. but because rules and political limits leave them with no choice.0% versus $2.. Expect this process to take a very long time. Based on current trends.62 billion). Brazil Annual Inflation at 12-Year High In November State funds pull $19bn from managers Oil-dependent economies forced to repatriate cash The reason the eurozone will end up monetising debt is not because it is the intrinsically best way to do it. Atlantic City Gaming – More Pressures Ahead… The Year After the First Wave of Closures. we anticipate that the Atlantic City market will end 2015 with total GGR of $2.. 2015 A New Geography of Business China Loses Edge on Labor Costs Canada’s household debt as a share of disposable income reached a record high of 163.7 percent in Q3. 15 .7 percent in Q2.The PunchLine.

December 17.6 percent (or $1. The really unhappy news for Boeing is that new orders for the Airbus A330. railroad cargo this quarter points to weak spots in the U.. retailers whittle down excess inventory and energy investment stalls. a drop of 10. and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slumped 4. Both Brent and WTI haven’t traded at levels this low since February 2009. US tech sector-military ties face spending hurdles The United States seeks to leverage its commercial technology advantage to maintain its post-Cold War military superiority as part of its 'third offset strategy'.. through December 2.162 containers and trailers. Excluding coal. with significant financial and legal implications. Competition will rise in global civil aerospace The November Dubai Airshow may herald a slowdown in the global civil aerospace business as neither Airbus nor Boeing registered large airline orders. railroads have posted a 5. rail traffic for the month was 2.087 carloads and intermodal units. tech companies and academic institutions in the United States. down 10. A decline in consumer‐related cargo this quarter is adding to weakness in industrial and energy traffic. compared to November of last year. Warren Buffett’s BNSF Railway Co.007 passenger airplanes through the end of November.6 percent in the third quarter and 1.6 percent (or $1.4 percent.S. Brent. dropped 3. That total is well above the 568 net new orders written by Boeing Co.041. Intermodal traffic for November reached a total of 1. after OPEC meeting ended in disagreement over production cuts. or 1 percent.8 percent or 41. compared to last November.461 carloads compared to November 2014. In light of policymaker concerns about the capabilities of US conventional forces and Chinese and Russian military assertiveness.024.259 carloads. November 2015 U.56) to $41.605. Union Pacific. Oil and mining companies hope worst is over New York Exxon probe portends industry practice shift Domestic US politics hinders President Barack Obama's push for global climate change mitigation at the COP21 summit in Paris.065. Aircraft maker Airbus Group announced on Monday that it has taken net new orders for 1. Concerns over the state of the global economy will also dampen short-term demand. economy as a strong dollar crimps exports.16.S. rail traffic for the month of November 2015 when compared with November 2014 was down 6 percent or 131.S. the strategy presents commercial opportunities to manufacturers. while strong dollar added pressure to oversupplied crude futures. A sharper decline in U. 16 . carload originations totaled 1. topping decreases of 1.S. carloads for the month were down 5.83) to $38. touching their lowest levels in nearly 7 years. Rail Traffic Decreased 6 Percent The Association of American Railroads (AAR) has reported that U.767 carloads and intermodal units. and other large U. Total U. A350 and A380 have pushed the European maker’s total for net new wide‐body orders to 127.828 units. 777 and 787. the global benchmark. but state-level regulators are responding to public pressure in some areas for fossil fuel-dependent energy companies to change their practices and reporting. compared with 113 net new wide‐body orders for Boeing’s 747. or 120.1 percent drop in carloads since the beginning of October.8 percent in the second. The falling cost of fuel has led many airlines to delay expensive modernization plans.S.S. Oil prices continued to tumble. 2015 Pumping Iron… The Old Economy Revisited November U.The PunchLine.44 a barrel.S.

or $9.1 percent. (9. revenue off 15.3 percent in 2014. although an average cover price increase of $0. Conde Nast sales down 9. an improvement on the 26. revenue off $11. Time Inc.9 million. the government said.9 Billion Deal Keurig Green Mountain agreed to get bought by an investor group led by JAB Holding for $13. only Bauer increased draw over the same period last year. at 20. driven by expanded coverage under his namesake law and by zooming prescription drug costs.4 percent. Some examples of the decline in the third quarter sales for media: Time Inc. sell-through efficiency in the third quarter was 27. While the president’s health care law has increased coverage.3 percent.2 percent. That followed a 2. Both saw significant increases in revenue. which likely led to its comparatively low revenue decline (2.9 percent..S.9 percent) and American Media Inc. Such seemingly small percentage shifts resonate when the total is $3 trillion. the cost problem doesn’t appear solved. with 18 percent of market share. specialists in the Game/Puzzle/Crossword category.38) meant that the revenue downturn remained in single digits.7 percent). Lost distribution from Source Interlink's May 2014 exit from the newsstand business had stabilized by the third quarter of last year. revenue off 7.3 and 20. Wenner Media.The PunchLine. Yahoo kills $32bn Alibaba stake spin-off U. national health expenditures increased by 5. Hearst and Trusted Media Brands saw the largest declines in newsstand revenue among publishers.04 (to $5.8 percent to $628. North American newsstand magazine sales declined 10. bucked the trend by substantially increasing draw. corporates. After five years of historically low growth. Hearst sales down 21. a sizable premium for the slumping coffee maker. reaching $3 trillion. down 15. The report by nonpartisan experts at the Department of Health and Human Services may signal the end of an unusually long lull in health care inflation that has benefited the Obama administration. health care spending last year grew at the fastest pace since President Barack Obama took office. Will holiday blockbusters redeem 2015 Movie year? Star Wars: The Force Awakens could rocket cinema audiences to 13-year high 17 . falling 9. Penny Press/Dell and Kappa Publishing Group. Of the top five publishers.5 percent recorded in the first half of 2015. woman and child..1 percent in the third quarter of 2015 from the same period last year. remains the largest newsstand publisher. publisher of Rolling Stone. 2015 The DNA of Business Reconfiguring Industries to Define Growth Activist pressure helps reshape U.3 percent.1 percent. meaning the data once again provides an unskewed year-over-year glimpse of industry sales trends. revenue off 20.9 percent. reports MagNet.9 percent). respectively. according to analysis from MagNet. sales down 13.3 percent.6 percent. followed by Bauer Publishing Group (10.9 billion.S. but still below the 31 percent sellthrough rate recorded over the same period last year. December 17. Across the industry.9 percent increase for 2013. from Yahoo to Dow Keurig Green Mountain Taken Private in $13.523 for every man.

excluding those in the U. December 17. shopping centers and other retail real estate hit €64 billion as of the end of November— making 2015 a post-crash record Rents are rising as a result in many markets with growing demand for space from domestic retailers.. 18 . U.K.6% annual rental growth in the first half of 2015. e-commerce force landlords to get creative with new developments FED SURVEY: Commercial loan demand was reported to be generally strengthening in most Fed Districts. Muji and Samsung. European Retail Property Deals Surge Sales volume of European malls.S.” which remained at 0%.. Victoria’s Secret and Forever 21 and Asian stores like Uniqlo. Credit quality was mostly stable. Shopping Malls Get Makeovers Overbuilding. 2015 Real Estate and Construction Outlook Shrinking U. companies like Apple. “crushing inflation. San Francisco noted an increasing role of nontraditional lenders in mortgage markets. Listed European retail companies..The PunchLine. saw 2.S. according to a recent report by Green Street Advisors.

. 2015 Some More Real Estate Views 19 ..The PunchLine. December 17.

December 17. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot by guaranteed. The views reflected herein are subject to change without notice. All rights are reserved. distributed to any person for any purpose without express permission from TPL Advisory. 20 . No one connected to this publication accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. 2015 Will Life Ever Be the Same? This publication is provided to you for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. This publication may not be reproduced.The PunchLine... LLC. Please cite source when quoting.