Electric Bikes and Electric Scooters

as Alternative Commute Vehicles

-------------A Pilot at Stanford
Xin Jiang
ETC-t: Innovative Transportation Systems
March 12, 2015

Smooth traffic flow

Presentation Outline

Higher level of mobility

Demand

Cost effectiveness

Comfortable travel
experience

U.S e-bikes and escooters market

issues

Environmental
friendliness

Market forecast

Technology
improvement

E-bikes and escooters as alternative

commute vehicles

Supply
Maturity of products

Solution

A pilot at Stanford

Traffic Challenges

Demand Estimation

Pilot
implementation

Benefits

Market Issues: Demand for Smooth Traffic Flow

High congestion cost (energy, time, environment)
Annual Congestion Cost(energy, time, environment)
140

$/ hrs /million pounds

Smooth traffic flow

120

In 2011:

/year

100

Fuel cost

$ 65/per

Time delay

38 hours/
person

80

CO2
emission

60

113 million
pounds

40
20

Annual excess fuel cost ($

per automibile commuter)

Higher level of mobility

and travel efficiency

Cost effective

Demand

Environmental friendly
and energy efficient

Novel, enjoyable and

comfortable experience

Annual hours of delay (hrs

per automobile commuter)
year

Totel excess CO2 due to

congestion(million pounds)

Source: Texas A&M Transportation Institute, Urban Mobility Report

http://d2dtl5nnlpfr0r.cloudfront.net/tti.tamu.edu/documents/ums/congestion-data/national/national-table-all.pdf

Market Issues: Demand for Higher level of Mobility

E-bikes and e-scooters as alternatives to automobiles
Commute Time by Modes of Transport and Distance
(minutes, one way)
60

Within 30 minutes:

Commute time(minutes)

50
40

Bike

5 miles

Car(traffic)

9 miles

E-bike

9 miles

E-scooter

7 miles

Smooth traffic flow

Higher level of mobility

and travel efficiency

Cost effective

Demand

30
Environmental friendly
and energy efficient

20
Car+parking
10

Car+parking(traffic)

Novel, enjoyable and

comfortable experience

Bike+parking

0
1.5

Commute Distance (miles)

10

E-bike+parking
E-scooter+parking(optional)

Note: The analysis of Commute Time by Mode of transportation and distance is based on 6 arbitrary trip that span a variety distance to Google campus

Market Issues: Demand for Higher Level of Mobility

E-scooters connect travel stops---a solution to the last-mile problem

Transit station
Smooth traffic flow

Higher level of mobility

and travel efficiency

Home

Destination
Cost effective

Demand

Environmental friendly
and energy efficient

Parking lot

Novel, enjoyable and

comfortable experience

Market Issues: Change of Attitudes and Travel Habit

Growing acceptance of two-wheel transportation
Bike Sharing Program in the U.S.
Smooth traffic flow

Higher level of mobility

and travel efficiency

Cost effective

Demand

Environmental friendly
and energy efficient

Novel, enjoyable and

comfortable experience

In operation
In planning or under construction
No longer operating
Source: The bike-sharing world map
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer
ll=43.580391,-42.890625&source=embed&ie=UTF8&om=1&msa=0&spn=143.80149,154.6875&z=1&hl=en&mid=zGPlSU9zZvZw.kmqv_ul1MfkI

Market Issues: Demand for Cost Effective Transportation

Compare to automobiles: Lower capital and maintenance cost

Annual Commute Cost Estimation (USD)

(e.g. 5-mile single trip, 10 miles per day)

Smooth traffic flow

Automobile

E-bike

E-scooter

$6,840

$917

$330

Insurance

$906

Maintenance and Repair

$390

$100

$50

Cost effective

Fuel cost
Parking cost
Air pollution cost

$220
little
a lot

0
0
little

0
0
little

Environmental friendly
and energy efficient

Health benefit

little

a lot

a lot

Total cost

$8,356

$1,017

$380

Capital cost

Higher level of mobility

and travel efficiency

Demand

Novel, enjoyable and

comfortable experience

Source: http://www.bankrate.com/finance/auto/car-ownership-costs-by-state.aspx
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/13/cars-in-the-u-s-are-more-fuel-efficient-than-ever-heres-how-it-happened/

Market Issues: Demand for Cost Effective Transportation

Compare to bikes: will become cost competitive due to technology
improvement
Smooth traffic flow

Increasing quality and

affordability of Li-ion
batteries and electric motors

Higher level of mobility

and travel efficiency

Cost effective

Demand

Supply

Improvements on
product quality and
variety

Environmental friendly
and energy efficient

Novel, enjoyable and

comfortable experience

Source of pictures:
http://www.faradaybikes.com/
http://www.jebiga.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Smart_ebike_Electric_Bicycle_8.jpg

Market Issues: Novel and Comfortable Travel Experience

Maturity of products Comfortable and novel travel experience

Smooth traffic flow

Increasing quality and

affordability of Li-ion
batteries and electric motors

Higher level of mobility

and travel efficiency

Cost effective

Demand

Supply

Improvements on
product quality and
variety

Novel, enjoyable and

comfortable
experience
Environmental friendly
and energy efficient

Source of pictures: http://www.faradaybikes.com/

http://ecorecoscooter.com/

U.S. E-bikes and E-scooters Market Issues

Forces shape and expand the e-bike and e-scooter market

Smooth traffic flow

Increasing quality and

affordability of Li-ion
batteries and electric motors

Manufacturers

Designers/
Developers
Insurance
companies

Higher level of mobility

and travel efficiency

Individuals

Cost effective

Supply

Improvements on
product quality and
variety

Demand
Institutes

Novel, enjoyable and

comfortable
experience
Environmental friendly
and energy efficient

Government

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U.S. E-bikes and E-scooters Market Issues

E-bike and e-scooter market forecast

Increasing commute demand

9000
8000

Key players in electric

vehicle manufacturing

Daily
Vehiclemiles of
travel
(1000s)

7000
6000

Toyota

5000
4000

Ford
Smooth traffic flow

Chevrolet

3000

Number of
commuters
(1000s)

2000
1000

Honda

Nissan

Increasing quality and

affordability of Li-ion
batteries and electric motors

Higher level of mobility

and travel efficiency

Cost effective

year

Demand

Supply

Improvements on
product quality and
variety

Novel, enjoyable and

comfortable
experience
Environmental friendly
and energy efficient

Source: Navigant Research Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey

https://www.navigantresearch.com/wp-assets/brochures/WP-EVCS-13-Navigant-Research.pdf

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U.S. E-bikes and E-scooters Market Issues

E-bike and e-scooter market forecast
Electric
Vehicles

2015 sales
volume

2024 sales
volume

CAGR

E-bikes

172,516

286,000

6.8%

E-scooters

4.934

21,756

17.9%

Increasing quality and

affordability of Li-ion
batteries and electric motors

Smooth traffic flow

Higher level of mobility

and travel efficiency

Cost effective

Demand

Supply

Improvements on
product quality and
variety

Novel, enjoyable and

comfortable
experience
Environmental friendly
and energy efficient

Source: Navigant Research Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey

https://www.navigantresearch.com/wp-assets/brochures/WP-EVCS-13-Navigant-Research.pdf

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A Practical Case at Stanford

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Traffic Challenges at Stanford

Why people drive so much?
Percentage of biking and driving alone among
Stanford students and employees

Irregular work schedule

70%
60%
Percentage

Top four reasons for driving alone at Stanford

No reasonable transit options

50%
40%
Percentage of driving
alone

30%
20%

Percentage of biking

10%

Anything else takes too much time

Dont like to depend on others

0%
within 2
miles

2-4 miles

4-9miles

Commute distance (miles)

Within 2 miles: 55% bike to school

20% drive to school
Within 4 miles: 44% bike to school
30% drive to school

Assumption:
1. Bicycles can not meet all demand
due to time consumption, physical
exertion, bike thefts, and dressing
code
2. Time flexibility is valued which can
not be satisfied by public transit

Source: 2014 Stanford Commute Survey

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Our Solution
E-bikes and e-scooters as alternative commute vehicles

Reduce commute time

Provide flexibility and convenience
E-scoters solve the last mile problem

Goal of the program

Methods

Reduce the number of cars crossing

campus

Build travel diary dataset

Provide Stanford commuters transit

alternatives

Collect User experience on e-bikers

and e-scooters

Evaluate commuters enthusiasm for the

alternative modes of transport

Compare commute patterns before

and after the pilot, to observe
changes in commute patterns

Generate long-term benefit to university

and commuters
Source: 2014 Stanford Commute Survey

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Demand Estimation
How many people can be potentially moved out of the cars?
Where are they?
2528 people
commute
from:
Menlo park
Palo Alto
Atherton
Redwood City
Los Altos
Portola Valley
Mountain View
San Carlos

Limit access to the original map at :

http://stanf.maps.arcgis.com/apps/presentation/index.html?webmap=4cf9a720d5664545ac2fbfddb8994657&slide=1

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Benefits
Benefits to Universities
Better on-campus transportation(less cars
crossing campus)
Low maintenance cost
Save parking space (cars, e-scooters)
Environmental friendly

Motivations for Commuters

Increase commute distance and reduce
commute time
Little physical exertion
Solve the last mile problem, more transport
options (for e-scooters)
Dont worry about theft (for e-scooters)
Source: http://www.bankrate.com/finance/auto/car-ownership-costs-by-state.aspx
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/13/cars-in-the-u-s-are-more-fuel-efficient-than-ever-heres-how-it-happened/

Pilot Implementation
Scope and timeline

Source partners

Organize
volunteers

Source partners
and procure 15
e-scooters and
20 e-bikes

Organize 35
volunteers

Get
approvements
from relevant
departments

Organize
safety training

Collect
feedback

Launch pilots
Assign
GPS
trackers to
volunteers
(before
pilot control
week)

Assign escooters to 15
volunteers(Gr
oup A)

Swap
group A
and B

Assign GPS
trackers to
volunteers (after
pilot control week)

Assign ebikes to 20
volunteers
(Group B)

Collect data through GPS trackers

Collect daily travel information through surveys
Collect user experience through exit interviews

Collect
feedback
and analysis

Full scale
implement
ation

Future Work
Design business models of e-bikes/e-scooters programs at Stanford
School owned, e-bike/e-scooter sharing program
School owned, leasing by quarter/year program
Privately owned, school subsidized program
Search for partners and opportunities to scale up e-bike and e-scooter program

Acknowledgements
Advisors and partners:
Stefan Heck, Frederick Soo, Brendan Pierpont, Regina Clewlow
Parking and Transportation Services at Stanford University
TomKat Center for Sustainable Energy( energyCatalyst Grants) at Stanford
University
Land, Buildings & Real Estate at Stanford University
Precourt Institute for Energy at Stanford University
EcoReco Scooters
Faraday Bicycles

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