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UNIVERSITI

TEKNOLOGI
P ETRONAS

FINAL EXAMINATION
MAY 2012 SEMESTER
COURSE

FCM2O63 I EAB21 23IEB,B21 23 _

RO BAB

LITY &

STATISTICS
DATE

O3'd

TIME

9.00 AM

SEPTEMBER 2012 (MONDAY)

12.00 NOON (3 hours)

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES
1.

Answer ALL questions n the Answer Booklet.

2.

Begin EAGH answer on a new page.

3.

lndicate clearly answers that are cancelled, if any.

4.

Where applicable, show clearly steps taken in arriving at the solutions and
indicate ALL assumptions.

5.

Do not open this Question Booklet until instructed.

Note

There are NINE (9) pages in this Question Booklet including


the cover page.
il

Graph Paper and Engineering Data and Formulae Booklet is


provided.

Universiti Teknologi

pETRoNAS

EBB 2123 I FCM2063

1.

The stem-and-leaf diagram or 25 observations on yields from a chemical


process is given below.
Leaf

Stem

I
I

1345 6
0113 58889
1344 778
235

11

6
7

i.

Find the mode, the median and the mean of the data.
[2 marks]

il

Construct a box plot of the data.


[6 marks]

ilt

lf there is any outlier, determine their values.


[2 marks]

b. The number of cars arriving per minute at a toll booth on Penang Bridge is
Poisson distributed with a mean of 2.5. What is the probability that in any
given minute

i.

no cars arrive?
[2 marks]

i.

more than two cars arrive?


[3 marks]

lf the expected number of cars arriving at the toll booth per ten-minutes
interval is 25.0, what is the probability that in any given ten-minutes period

ilt

at most 20 cars arrive?


[2 marks]

tv.

between 20 and 30 cars arrive?


[3 marks]
2

EBB 2123 I FCM2063

2.

a.

The random variable )'is called a Laplace random variable if its probability
density function is given by

,f(y):ke-tlYl ,>0,

-oo< y<@

Find the

i.
ii.
ii.
iv.

value of k
[2 marks]

mean of

I
[2 marksJ

standard deviation of ).
[2 marks]

cumulative distribution function of

)z

[4 marks]

b.

A box contains 100 washe rs, 24 of which are brass, 36 are copper and the
remainder are steel. One washer is taken from the box at random without
replacement and a second washer similarly drawn. What is the probability
that

i.
ii.
iii.

both washers are of the same material?


[4 marks]

the first is brass and the second is copper?


[2 marks]

one is brass and one is steel?


[4 marks]

EBB 2123 / FCM2063


3.

a.

A car manufacturer introduces a new method of assembling a particular


component. The old method had a mean assembly time of 42 minutes.
The manufacturer would like the assembly time to be as short as possible,
and so he expects the new method to have a less mean assembly time. A
random sample of assembly time (in minutes) taken after the new method
had become established was

27

39

28

47

41

42

35

32

38

ls the new method of assembling a particular component success


at

= 0.05?
[5 marks]

il

Determine the P-value for this test. What is your comment?


[3 marks]

EBB 2123 I FCM2063

b.

Do students who get higher grades study more time during night? To
answer this question, a random sample of 16 students who got a grade
point average between 3.5 - 4.0 last semester were asked the number of
hours they study each night. For this group, the sample mean was 2.6
hours with standard deviation 1.5 hours. A second random sample of the
same number of students who got a grade point average of 2.0 - 2.5 were
asked the same question. For this group the sample mean was 1.5 hours
wth standard deviation 1.3 hours.

i.

Do the students in the 3.5

4.0 grade point average range study

longer than the other group at 1% significant level?


[6 marks]
ll

What is the P-value for this test?


[2 marks]

ilt

Find the 99% two sided confident interval of this test. what is your
conclusion?
[4 marks]

EBB 2123 I FCM2063


4.

A two factor experimental design was conducted to investigate the lifetime of a

component being manufactured. The two factors are

(design) and

B (cost of material). Two levels 11+ and (-)) of each factor are considered. Five

components are manufactured with each combination of design and material,


and the total lifetime measured (in hours) is as shown n TABLE Q4.

TABLE Q4
Treatment
Combination

DESIGN

MATERlAL

Total lifetime of 5
AB

(in hours)

(1)

122

60

qb

components

120

118

A two way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed to estimate the


effects of design and material expense on the component lifetime.

Complete

the following ANOVA TABLE Q4 by

answering the

corresponding questions. Use q = 0.05.

TABLE Q4ai
Source

DF

A (Design)

B (Material)

lnteracton

Error
Total

SS

MS

204.8

F
?

180

28

11

569.60

,)

[10 marks]
o

EBB 2123 I FCM2063

ii.

Based on the results above, what conclusions can you draw from the
factorial experiment?
[4 marks]

iii.

lndicate which effects are significant to the lifetime of a component.


[2 marks]

iv.

Write the least square fitted model using only the significant sources.
[4 marks]

EBB 2123 I FCM2063


5.

a.

Astro Electronics division uses statistical quality control tools to ensure


proper weld strength in several of their welding procedures. Weld strength

is measured by a pull test to destruction, A sample of five items is taken


periodically throughout the production process. The average and the range
of 22 samples are listed and given in TABLE QSa.

TABLE QSa
Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

number

mean

range

number

mean

range

5.48

1.4

12

5.06

1.4

5.42

1.6

13

4.82

1.9

5.42

1.4

14

4.86

1.3

5.40

0.5

15

4.68

0.9

5.52

1.7

16

5.28

1.6

5.32

o.7

17

4.68

1.1

5.34

1.6

18

4.94

0.6

5.58

1.2

19

4,90

1.0

4.54

0.6

20

4.96

0.7

10

5.42

1.6

21

5.06

1.8

11

5.58

0.5

22

5.22

0.8

Use the given data to construct the

X - chart and the R - chart.


[6 marks]

il

lnterpret your results and comment on the stability of the process.

ilt

[4 marks]
Suppose a sample of 6 is taken throughout the production process.

Brefly explain (no calculaton required) how will this affect the
monitoring process?
[2 marks]

EBB 2123 I FCM2063

b.

The memory size of the seven programs mentioned in the Disk l/O and CPU

time data were measured. The memory size (in Kbytes) and CPU time (in
milliseconds) pairs observed are:
(7O,2) , (75,5) , (144,7',), (190,9) , (210,10) , (235,13) , (400,20)

i.

Make a scatter plot of CPU time against the memory size.


[2 marks]

Analyse the data usng a simple regression model to predict CPU time
as a function of the memory size.
[6 marks]

- END OF PAPER.