UNIVERSITI

TEKNOLOGI
P ETRONAS

FINAL EXAMINATION
JANUARY 2013 SEMESTER
COURSE

FC M2063

EAB21 231E.B,2123

- P RO BABI LITY &

STATISTICS

DATE

3oth APRTL

TIME

2.30 PM

2013 (TUESDAv)

5.30 PM (3 hours)

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES
1.

Answer ALL questions in the Answer Booklet.

2.

Begin EACH answer on a new page.

3.

lndicate clearly answers that are cancelled, if any.

4.

Where applicable, show clearly steps taken in arriving at the solutions and
indicate ALL assumptions.

5.

Do not open this Question Booklet until instructed.

Note

There are NINE (9) pages in this Question Booklet including

the cover page.
lt

One (1) Graph Paper and Engineering Data and Formulae

Book is provided.

Universiti Teknoloqi

pETRONAS

EBB 2123 I FCM2O63

1

a.

The furnace temperatures recorded on successive batches n

semiconductor manufacturing process I in ? ) are given as:

953, 950, g4g, 955,951,949, 957,954,1255

calculate the sample mean, sample variance and standard deviation.

[2 marksJ
l1

Find the median, the upper and lower quartiles of the temperatures.

[4 marks]
ilt

Construct a box plot of the data and comment on your plot.

[4 marks]

EBB 2123 / FCM2O63

b.

A power network involves three substations A, B and C. Overload at any of

these substations mght result in a blackout of the entire system. During a
heat wave there is 60% chance that substation A alone will experience an

overload. For stations B and C these percentages are 20o/o and

15o/o,

respectively. There is also a 5% chance of an overload at two or more

substations simultaneously. lf substation A alone experience an overload,
then there is 1% chance of a network blackout. For stations B and C alone

these percentages are 2o/o and 3%, respectively. lf an overload at two or

more substations simultaneously, there is 5% chance of a blackout. During
a particular heat wave,

find the probability that a blackout wll occur due to overload.

[3 marks]

ii.

suppose there is system blackout, what is the probability that the

overload occurred at substation A alone.
[3 marks]

iii.

what is the probability that the overload occurred at two or more

substations simultaneously when there is blackout?
[2 marks]

iv.

what is the probability that an overload occurs at substation B but

does not cause system blackout?
[2 marks]

EBB 2123 I FCM2063

a.

Majlis Daerah Perak Tengah intends to install traffic lights at the UTP
junction that is able to detect traffc at a rate of 9 vehicles per hour. Find
the

i.

probability that the time to detect the next vehicle is between 20 and
50 minutes.
[3 marks]

ii.

expected number of detected vehicles in a 2O-minute interval.

[2 marks]

iii.

probability that at most 2 vehicles will be detected in a 2O-minute

interval.
[3 marksJ

b.

The reaction time of a driver to a visual stimulus is normally distributed

with a mean of 0.4s and a standard deviation of 0.05s. Find the probability
that the reaction requires between 0.4 and 0.5 second.
[3 marks]

c.

An lntroductory Statstics course carries out a multiple-choice test consists

of a series of questions, each with four possible answers.

i. lf there are 60 questions,

find the probability that a student who

guesses blindly at each question will get at least 30 questions right.

[4 marks]

ii.

How many questions are needed in order to be 99% confident that

student who guesses blindly at each question scores not more than
35% on the test?
[5 marks]

EBB 2123 I FCM2063

As a quality engineer, you had inspected two types of machines, namely

Machine A and Machine B. The product from each of the machine is assumed

to meet the specification, that is, the mean diameter of the produced bolts is
35.5 mm. A random sample is selected from each machine and its diameter is
measured. The results are shown in TABLE Q3.

TABLE Q3
Machine A
Machine B

36
34

28
41

29
35

20
47

3B

49

46

Assume that the samples were collected from population of equal variances.

a.

Your superior feels that Machine B does not meet the specification. ls
there strong evidence to indicate that this claim is true? Justify your
answer.
[B marks]

b.

Carry out a test to decide if the mean diameter of bolts from Machine B is

bigger than the mean diameter

cr,

of bolts produced by Machine A.

Use

= 0. 10.

[8 marks]

Construct a 95% confidence interval on the difference in means, Ft

ltz

between the two types of machine. Comment on your answer.

[4 marks]

EBB 2123 / FCM2063

4.

a.

TABLE Q4a presents the turf quality scores for four specimens treated

with either

fertilizer

C or fertilizer D, at a

temperature

of

either

25oCor37oC.
TABLE Q4a
Fertilizer

Temp
oc

250 C

40

24

31

21

370 C

46

53

48

46

250

47

37

41

41

370 C

84

76

77

79

Turf Quality scores

Construct a design matrix for TABLE Q4a.

[2 marks]

ii.

Perform the analysis

of variance with ct=0.l0given that

SStotrl

equals 5759.9.
[5 marks]

iii.

Test for the main and interacton effects using c:0.10. What is your
conclusion?
[3 marks]

EBB 2123 I FCM2063

b.

Regression methods were used

te

analyse the data from

study

investigating the relationship between roadway surface temperature and

pavement deflection. An analysis of the data is given in TABLE Q4b.

TABLE Q4b
The regression equation is

t:26.8

+ 1.48

Predictor

Coef

SE Coef

p - value

Constant

26.735

2.373

1.4756

0.1063

R-squared=

-squared (adj) = 0.932

0.937

Analyss of Variance
Source

Df

SS

MS

Regression

Residual Error

7.3

Total

15

500

Find the missing information.

[4 marks]
il

Determine if the model defines a useful linear relationship.

[4 marks]

ilt

Estimate the value of the error variance.

[2 marks]

EBB 2123 I FCM2O63

The overall length of a skew used in a heart transplant replacement device

5.

is continuously monitored. A sample of five items is taken periodically

throughout the monitoring process. The average and the range of 22
samples are listed in TABLE Q5a,

TABLE QSa

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

number

mean

range

number

mean

range

5.48

1.4

12

5.06

1.4

5.42

1.6

13

4.82

1.9

5.42

1.4

14

4.86

1.3

5.40

0.5

15

4.68

0.9

5.52

1.7

16

5.28

1.6

5.32

0.7

17

4.68

1.1

5.34

1.6

1B

4.94

0.6

I
I

5.58

1.2

19

4.90

1.0

4.54

0.6

20

4.96

0.7

10

5.42

1.6

21

5.06

1.8

11

5.58

0.5

22

5.22

0.8

Use the given data to construct the X - chart and the R

- chart.
[7 marks]

il

lnterpret your results and estimate the process mean and variance.
[5 marks]

EBB 2123 I FCM2O63

b.

A researcher is interested to study the number of weeks that it takes for

seed to germinate. The data was collected and the probability mass
function for the number of days to germination is tabulated in TABLE QSb.

TABLE Qsb

X=x
X= x\

P(

0.48

2
0.39

3
o.12

4
0.01

Forty five seeds are sampled from the population.

i.

Find the distribution of the average number of weeks for 45 seeds to

germinate.
[4 marks]

ii.

What is the percentage that the average number of weeks taken for

this sample of seeds to germinate from this sample is more than

weeks?
[4 marks]

- END OF PAPER -