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The Exemplar Canadian Focus Portfolio had a
postive return of 1.59% for the month of November,
bringing the YTD performance to 6.65% vs. -5.42%
for the S&P/TSX.
This is the last commentary for 2015, one of the
most challenging years I EVER had to navigate in my
long career. I have decided to forego a postmortem
for fear that whatever conclusion I share with you
today will most likely turn out wrong by next
week, if not by tomorrow before noon. Whatever
Chair Yellen does and says on December 16th will
clearly determine the course markets take for the
remaining trading days of this year.
For those of you who remember, earlier this year I
predicted Yellen would begin to normalize interest
rates at the September FOMC meeting. Knowing
interest rates needed to be raised while the U.S.
economy was strong, I took into consideration
her penchant for seeking consensus (it really is
procrastination), and realized September was the
very last meeting Yellen could change policy while
allowing markets ample time to digest the move
before year end. It was a practical call on my part
- I thought all women were practical. Having had
ample opportunity all summer to pull the trigger,
could Yellen act a mere week before Christmas?
Would Yellen make such an important decision
merely days before many large institutions have to
close books for trading? This would undoubtedly
magnify the already elevated intra-day volatility
both before and after the meeting, as institutions
try to position portfolios for potential policy
change just weeks before year end in a market
progressively drained of liquidity with each passing
week. I concluded a rational person would never
wait until the December meeting.
If Yellen raises rates on December 16th, she will
send markets on a roller coaster. Considering how
unpredictable markets have recently become, I am
not even going to bother predicting the outcome
Unless otherwise stipulated Exemplar Portfolio returns are net of all fees, in Canadian dollars, reflect class F shares and assume
reinvestment of all distributions. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with
Exemplar Portfolio investments. Please read the full prospectus before investing. Except as otherwise noted the indicated rates
of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in share or unit value and the reinvestment of
all dividends or distributions and do not take into account the sales, redemption, distribution, or optional charges or income tax
payable by the unitholder or shareholder that would have reduced returns. Exemplar Portfolios are not insured or guaranteed by
Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation (CDIC) or any other insurer. Exemplar Portfolios are subject to risks of loss of capital and
income and their values change frequently. Past performance may not be repeated. Shares of the Portfolio are highly speculative
and involve a high degree of risk. You may lose a substantial portion or even all of the money you invest in a Portfolio.
36 Toronto Street, Suite 750 Toronto, Ontario Canada M5C 2C5 Tel: 416.323.0477 Tel: 1.877.327.6048 Fax: 416.323.3199 www.arrow-capital.com
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N O V E M B E R 2 0 1 5
36 Toronto Street, Suite 750 Toronto, Ontario Canada M5C 2C5 Tel: 416.323.0477 Tel: 1.877.327.6048 Fax: 416.323.3199 www.arrow-capital.com
MCEC