Probability

How likely something is to happen.

Many events can't be predicted with total
certainty. The best we can say is
how likely they are to happen, using the
idea of probability.

Probability
In general:
Number of ways it
can happen
Probability of an event
happening =
Total number of
outcomes

Tossing a Coin
When a coin is tossed, there
are two possible outcomes:

Example: the chances of rolling a "4" with a

die

heads (H) or

Number of ways it can happen: 1 (there is

only 1 face with a "4" on it)

tails (T)

Total number of outcomes: 6 (there are 6

faces altogether)

We say that the probability

of the coin landing H is .

1
So the probability =

And the probability of the

coin landing T is .

Throwing Dice
When a single die is
thrown, there are six
possible outcomes: 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
The probability of any
one of them is 1/6.

6
Example: there are 5 marbles in a bag: 4 are
blue, and 1 is red. What is the probability
that a blue marble gets picked?
Number of ways it can happen: 4 (there are 4
blues)
Total number of outcomes: 5 (there are 5
marbles in total)

4
So the probability =

= 0.8
5

Probability Line
We can show probability on a Probability
Line :

The probability of an event occurring is

somewhere between impossible and
certain.
As well as words we can use numbers

Probability is always between 0

and 1

(such as fractions or decimals) to show the

probability of something happening:

Impossible is zero

Probability is Just a Guide

Certain is one.

Probability does not tell us exactly what will

happen, it is just a guide

Here are some fractions on the probability

line:

Example: toss a coin 100 times, how many

Heads will come up?
Probability says that heads have a chance,
so we can expect 50 Heads.
But when we actually try it we might get 48
heads, or 55 heads ... or anything really, but
in most cases it will be a number near 50.

Probability Line
Probability is the chance that something
will happen. It can be shown on a line.

We can also show the chance that

something will happen:
a) The sun will rise tomorrow.
b) I will not have to learn mathematics at
school.
c) If I flip a coin it will land heads up.
d) Choosing a red ball from a sack with 1
red ball and 3 green balls

Each of the 5 colors can be made into 3 shapes - blue

with 3 shape choices, red with 3 shape choices, etc.
By multiplying, you get the total number of paths that
you can take through the diagram. You can make 15
different kinds of ties (5 * 3).
Now suppose that you also add 3 pattern choices to
your tie options: striped, solid, or polka-dot. How many

Between 0 and 1

The probability of an event

will not be less than 0.
This is because 0 is impossible (sure
that something will not happen).
The probability of an event
will not be more than 1.
This is because 1 is certain that
something will happen.

ties can you make now? Simply imagine one of the

possibilities you had originally - maybe a green tie that
is short and fat. That green short tie can now be made
three ways: striped, solid, or polka-dot. The same is
true of the other 14 original ties. So, now you have 15
* 3 = 45 different types of ties.
This multiplication method works any time you have
several factors (color, shape, and design) and each of
those factors can be combined with each other in any
way possible. You can use the fundamental counting

Fundamental counting

rule (multiplication) any time you have a set of

principle (factorial notation value,

category will be selected. You might think of it as

permutation, combination)

Definition
The fundamental counting principle is a mathematical
rule that allows you to find the number of ways that a
combination of events can occur. For example, if the
first event can occur 3 ways, the second event can
occur 4 ways, and the third event can occur 5 ways,
then you can find out the number of unique
combinations by multiplying: 3 * 4 * 5 = 60 unique
combinations.
Imagine that you have a necktie sewing business. You
can make unique ties by changing any of the following
factors: color (5 options) and shape (3 options). How
many unique ties can you make? One way to think
about it is by making a diagram. There are 5 colors.

categories and one out of several choices in each

having several empty 'slots' to fill. Each 'slot' gets only
one item.

>>> Factorial Notation

For the following sections on counting, we
need a simple way of writing the product
of all the positive whole numbers up to a
given number. We use factorial
notation for this.

Definition of n!
>> n factorial is defined as the product
of all the integers from 1 to n (the order of
multiplying does not matter) .
We write "n factorial" with an exclamation
mark as follows: \displaystyle{n}!n!

n! = (n)(n 1)(n 2)...(3)(2)(1)

A Few Examples
Suppose the slots represent courses in a meal you're
going to order. If there are 6 courses, you might have
3 appetizer choices, 2 soup choices, and 4 salad
choices, along with 5 main course choices, 10
beverage choices, and 3 dessert choices. To find out
how many unique 6-course meals you can make, fill in
the blanks with the number of choices and multiply:
3 * 2 * 4 * 5 * 10 * 3 = 3,600 possible unique meals
Another situation might be the creation of license
plates. Again, you have 6 slots to fill. This time, the
first two slots must be letters (26 choices) and the
remaining 4 slots must be numbers (10 choices each).
If you fill in the 6 'slots' with the number of choices
and multiply, you get the number of license plates you
can make:
26 * 26 * 10 * 10 * 10 * 10 = 6,760,000 license plates

NOTE: We conclude from this answer and

the answer for (d) above that we cannot
simply cancel a fraction containing
factorials. That is:

\displaystyle\frac{{{10}!}}
{{{5}!}}\ne{2}!5!10!2!
We use factorial notation throughout this
chapter, starting in
the Permutations section.
>>> Permutations
A permutation is an arrangement of
objects, without repetition, and order
being important. Another definition of
permutation is the number of such
arrangements that are possible.

Since a permutation is the number of

ways you can arrange objects, it will
always be a whole number. The
denominator in the formula will always
divide evenly into the numerator.
The n value is the total number of objects
to chose from. The r is the number of
objects your actually using.
The two key things to notice about
permutations are that there is no
repetition of objects allowed and that
order is important.
Examples of permutations:

Example 1: List all permutations of the

letters ABCD
ABC
D
ABD
C
ACB
D
ACD
B
ADB
C
ADC
B

BAC
D
BAD
C
BCA
D
BCD
A
BDA
C
BDC
A

CAB DAB
D
C
CAD DAC
B
B
CBA DBA
D
C
CBD DBC
A
A
CDA DCA
B
B
CDB DCB
A
A

Now, if you didn't actually need a listing of

all the permutations, you could use the
formula for the number of permutations.
There are 4 objects and you're taking 4 at
a time. 4P4 = 4! / (4-4)! = 4! / 0! = 24 / 1 =
24.

This also gives us another definition of

permutations. A permutation when you
include all n objects is n!. That is, P(n,n) =
n!
Example 2: List all three letter
permutations of the letters in the word
HAND
HAN
HNA
HAD
HDA
HND
HDN

AHN
ANH
AHD
ADH
AND
ADN

NHD
NDH
NAH
NHA
NAD
NDA

DHA
DAH
DAN
DNA
DHN
DNH

Now, if you didn't actually need a listing of

all the permutations, you could use the
formula for the number of permutations.
There are 4 objects and you're taking 3 at
a time. 4P3 = 4! / (4-3)! = 4! / 1! = 24 / 1 =
24.
Finding Permutations by Hand

By hand, you can plug the values for n

and r into the expression involving
factorials and then simplify the ratio of the
factorials as discussed in section 7.1.
However, there will always be n-r terms in
common between the numerator and the
denominator once the factorials are
expanded. Those terms will divide out,
leaving you with the first r terms of the
expansion in the numerator. This gives us
a shortcut for finding a permutation by
hand.
n

Pr = first r factors of n!

Finding Permutations with the Calculator

There is a permutation function on the

calculator. On the TI-82 and TI-83, it is
found under the Math menu, the
Probability Submenu, and then choice 2.
It is shown as nPr. Enter the value for n
first, then the function, and finally the
value for r.
>>> Combinations
Combinations were briefly introduced
in section 7.5, but we will go into more
detail on them here.

A combination is an arrangement of
objects, without repetition, and order not
being important. Another definition of
combination is the number of such
arrangements that are possible.

The n and r in the formula stand for the

total number of objects to choose from
and the number of objects in the
arrangement, respectively.
The key points to a combination are that
there is no repetition of objects allowed
and the order isn't important.
List all combinations of the letters ABCD
in groups of 3.
There are only four combinations (ABC,
ABD, ACD, and BCD). Listed below each
of those combinations are the six
permutations that are equivalent as
combinations.
ABC

ABD

ACD

BCD

ABC
ACB
BAC
BCA
CAB
CBA

ABD
ADB
BAD
BDA
DAB
DBA

ACD
ADC
CAD
CDA
DAC
DCA

BCD
BDC
CBD
CDB
DBC
DCB

We learned in the last section that

combinations were symmetric. That is
easy to see from the formula involving
factorials. As an example, C(12,7) =
C(12,5). Take whichever one is easier to
find. Is it easier to find C(100,2) or
C(100,98)? On the calculator it doesn't
make much difference, by hand it does.
Finding Combinations by Hand

By hand, you can plug the values for n

and r into the expression involving
factorials and then simplify the ratio of the
factorials as discussed in section 7.1.
To simplify the ratio, you want the larger
amount of terms to divide out. For
example, if you need to find C(12,5), you
could also find C(12,7). Either way, you're
going to have a 12! in the numerator and
both a 7! and 5! in the denominator. You
would rather divide out 7! than 5!,
because it leaves you less to work with.
So, pick whichever r value is smaller, and
then work with that combination.
Cr = (first r factors of n!) / (last r factors of
n!)
n

It turns out the last r factors of n! is really

just r!.
Finding Combinations with the Calculator

There is a permutation function on the

calculator. On the TI-82 and TI-83, it is
found under the Math menu, the
Probability Submenu, and then choice 3.
It is shown as nCr. Enter the value for n
first, then the function, and finally the
value for r.
Examples of Combinations

We experienced combinations with

Pascal's Triangle, but there are other
places they occur.
The old Illinois Lottery had 54 balls, of
these 54 balls, six are chosen. None of
the six can be repeated and the order of
the six is not important. That makes it a
combination: C(54,6) = 25,827,165.
I was told that on January 17, 1998, the
Illinois Lottery will be changing to 48 balls,
six of which are chosen. Now, the number
of possibilities will be C(48,6) =
12,271,512
How many 5 card poker hands are there
with 3 clubs and 2 diamonds? Well, there
is no repetition of cards in a hand, and the
order doesn't matter, so we have a
combination again. Since there are 13
clubs and we want 3 of them, there are
C(13,3) = 286 ways to get the 3 clubs.
Since there are 13 diamonds and we
want 2 of them, there are C(13,2) = 78
ways to get the 2 diamonds. Since we
want them both to occur at the same time,
we use the fundamental counting
principle and multiply 286 and 78 together
to get 22,308 possible hands.

Difference between Permutations and

Combinations

The distinguishing feature between

Permutations and Combinations is not
whether or not there is repetition. Neither
one allows repetition. The difference
between the two is whether or not order is
important. If you have a problem where
you can repeat objects, then you must
use the Fundamental Counting Principle,
you can't use Permutations or
Combinations.
Distinguishable Permutations
Consider all the permutations of the
letters in the word BOB.

Since there are three letters, there should

be 3! = 6 different permutations. Those
permutations are BOB, BBO, OBB, OBB,
BBO, and BOB. Now, while there are six
permutations, some of them are
indistinguishable from each other. If you
look at the permutations that are
distinguishable, you only have three BOB,
OBB, and BBO.
To find the number of distinguishable
permutations, take the total number of
letters factorial divide by the frequency of
each letter factorial.

Find the number of distinguishable

permutations of the letters in the word
MISSISSIPPI
Here are the frequencies of the letters.
M=1, I=4, S=4, P=2 for a total of 11
letters. Be sure you put parentheses
around the denominator so that you end
up dividing by each of the factorials.
11! / ( 1! * 4! * 4! * 2! ) = 11! / ( 1 * 24 * 24
* 2 ) = 34,650.
You may want to do some simplification
by hand first. When you simplify that ratio
of factorials, you get that there are 34,650
distinguishable permutations in the word
MISSISSIPPI. I don't want to list them out,
but it's better than listing out all
39,916,800 permutations of the 11 letters
in MISSISSIPPI.
PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS
The Fundamental Principle of Counting
Factorial representation of permutations
Permutation problems
Section 2
Combinations
Factorial representation of combinations
Combination problems

where n1 + n2 + ... + nk =
N
Basically, the little n's are the frequencies
of each different (distinguishable) letter.
Big N is the total number of letters.

The sum of all combinations

Permutations
BY THE PERMUTATIONS of the letters abc we
mean all of their possiblearrangements:
abc
acb

Example of distinguishable permutations

bac
bca

third, and 1 way to choose the last.

Therefore the number of permutations of 4
different things is

cab

4 3 2 1 = 24

cba

Thus the number of permutations of 4

different things taken 4 at a time is 4!.
(See Topic 19.)

There are 6 permutations of three different

things. As the number of things (letters)
increases, their permutations grow
astronomically. For example, if twelve
different things are permuted, then the
number of their permutations is
479,001,600.
Now, this enormous number was not found
by counting them. It is derived theoretically
from the Fundamental Principle of Counting:
If something can be chosen, or can happen,
or be done, in m different ways, and, after
that has happened, something else can be
chosen in ndifferent ways, then the number
of ways of choosing both of them is m n.
For example, imagine putting the letters a, b,
c, d into a hat, and then drawing two of them
in succession. We can draw the first in 4
different ways: either a or b or c or d. After
that has happened, there are 3 ways to
choose the second. That is, to each of those
4 ways there correspond 3. Therefore, there
are 4 3 or 12 possible ways to choose two
letters from four.
ab

ba

ca

da

ac

bc

cb

db

ad

bd

cd

dc

ab means that a was chosen first

and b second; ba means that b was chosen
first and a second; and so on.
Let us now consider the total number of
permutations of all four letters. There are 4
ways to choose the first. 3 ways remain to
choose the second, 2 ways to choose the

(To say "taken 4 at a time" is a convention.

We mean, "4! is the number of permutations
of 4 different things taken from a total of 4
different things.")
In general,
The number of permutations of n different
things taken n at a time
is n!.
Example 1. Five different books are on a
shelf. In how many different ways could you
arrange them?
Answer. 5! = 1 2 3 4 5 = 120
Example 2. There are 6! permutations of
the 6 letters of the wordsquare.
a) In how many of them is r the second
letter? _ r _ _ _ _
b) In how many of them are q and e next to
each other?
Solution.
a) Let r be the second letter. Then there are
5 ways to fill the first spot. After that has
happened, there are 4 ways to fill the third, 3
to fill the fourth, and so on. There are 5!
such permutations.
b) Let q and e be next to each other as qe.
Then we will be permuting the 5 units qe, s,
u a, r.. They have 5! permutations.
But q and e could be together as eq.
Therefore, the total number of ways they
can be next to each other is 2 5! = 240.
Permutations of less than all

We have seen that the number of ways of

choosing 2 letters from 4 is 4 3 = 12. We
call this
"The number of permutations of 4 different
things taken 2 at a time."
We will symbolize this as 4P2:
4P2 = 4 3
The lower index 2 indicates the number of
factors. The upper index4 indicates the first
factor.
For example, 8P3 means "the number of
permutations of 8 different things taken 3 at
a time." And
8P3

8 7 6

56 6

(8 3)!

5!

In general, the number of arrangements -permutations -- of nthings taken k at a time,

can be represented as follows:
n!
. . . . . . . . . . . .
nPk = (n k)
(1)
!
The upper factorial is the upper index of P,
while the lower factorial is the difference of
the indices.
Example 3. Express 10P4 in terms of
factorials.
Solution.

10P4

10!
6!

The upper factorial is the upper index, and

the lower factorial is the difference of the
indices. When the 6!'s cancel, the numerator
becomes 10 9 8 7.
This is the number of permutations of 10
different things taken 4 at a time.

50 6 + 6 6

Example 4. Calculate nPn.

=

336

For, there are 8 ways to choose the first, 7

ways to choose the second, and 6 ways to
choose the third.
In general,
nPk = n(n 1)(n 2) to k factors
Factorial representation

8 7 6

5! is a factor of 8!, and therefore the 5!'s

cancel.
Now, 8 7 6 is 8P3. We see, then, that
8P3 can be expressed in terms of factorials
as
8P3

8!

nPn

n!
n!
n!
=
=
= n!
(n n)!
0!
1

nPn is the number of permutations

of n different things taken n at a time -- it is
the total number of permutations of n things:
n!. Thedefinition 0! = 1 makes line
(1) above valid for all values of k: k = 0, 1,
2, . . . , n.
Problem 1. Write down all the permutations
of xyz.

We saw in the Topic on factorials,

8!
5!

Solution.

8!

To see the answer, pass your mouse over the

colored area.
To cover the answer again, click "Refresh"
("Reload").
xyz, xzy, yxz, yzx, zxy, zyx.
Problem 2. How many permutations are
there of the letters pqrs?
4! = 1 2 3 4 = 24

Problem 3. a) How many different

arrangements are there of the letters of the
word numbers?

c) How many 5-digit odd numbers can you

make with 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and
c) no digit is repeated?

7! = 5,040

Again, 0 cannot be first, so remove it. Since

the number must be odd, it must end in
either 1 or 3. Place 1, then, in the last
position. _ _ _ _ 1. Therefore, for the first
position, we may choose either 2, 3, or 4, so
that there are 3 ways to choose the first
digit. Now replace 0. Hence, there will be 3
ways to choose the second position, 2 ways
to choose the third, and 1 way to choose the
fourth. Therefore, the total number of odd
numbers that end in 1, is 3 3 2 1 = 18.
The same analysis holds if we place 3 in the
last position, so that the total number of odd
numbers is 2 18 = 36.

b) How many of those arrangements

have b as the first letter?
Set b as the first letter, and permute the
remaining 6. Therefore, there are 6! such
arrangements.
c) How many have b as the last letter -- or in
any specified position?
The same. 6!.
d) How many will have n, u, and m together?
Begin by permuting the 5 things -- num, b, e,
r, s. They will have 5! permutations. But in
each one of them, there are 3!
rearrangements of num. Consequently, the
total number of arrangements in which n,
u, and m are together, is 3! 5! = 6 120 =
720.
Problem 4. a) How many different
arrangements (permutations) are there of
the digits 01234?
5! = 120
b) How many 5-digit numbers can you make
of those digits, in which the

Problem 5.
a) If the five letters a, b, c, d, e are put into
a hat, in how many different
a) ways could you draw one out? 5
b) When one of them has been drawn, in
how many ways could you
a) draw a second? 4
c) Therefore, in how many ways could you
draw two letters? 5 4 = 20
This number is denoted by 5P2.
d) What is the meaning of the symbol 5P3?

b) first digit is not 0, and no digit is

repeated?

The number of permutations of 5 different

things taken 3 at a time.

Since 0 cannot be first, remove it. Then there

will be 4 ways to choose the first digit. Now
replace 0. It will now be one of 4 remaining
digits. Therefore, there will be 4 ways to fill
the second spot, 3 ways to fill the third, and
so on. The total number of 5-digit numbers,
then, is 4 4! = 4 24 = 96.

e) Evaluate 5P3.

5 4 3 = 60

Problem 6. Evaluate
a) 6P3 = 120
b) 10P2 =
90
c) 7P5 = 2520