Sensitivity Analysis in Pavement Performance Due To Variation in Hot Mix Asphalt Design Methodology

International Journal of Scientific Engineering and Technology
Vo lu me No.5 Issue No.1, pp: 95-104
ISSN:2277-1581
01 Jan.2016
Sensitivity Analysis in Pavement Performance Due to Variation in Hot Mix

Asphalt Design Methodology
Ahme d Mohamady, Mohamed basouny, Ayaat Ahmed Abdel- Hamid
Assistant Professor, Faculty of Engineering, Zagazig University
rosseforp , Faculty of Engineering, banha University
Abstract: The objective of this study was to develop
performance characteristics or variables (e.g., rutting,
Ilanoitanretn Roughness Index; IRI) of flexible pavements in
Egypt and to use these characteristics in the implementation of
the distress prediction models or transfer functions included in
the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG)
software. A large amount of input atad are required in order to
perform pavement design with MEPDG. These data may be
classified into traffic loads, material properties and climate
input parameters. The goal of this sensitivity analysis is to
verify that the performa nce models accurately predict
pavement distress. This research focuses on comparison
between sensitivity analysis of flexible pavement performance
predictions in MEPDG design inputs under five section
conditions, traffic volumes and AASHT, Design inputs
evaluated in the analysis include different traffic volumes (100,
50, 25, 10thousands, and the actual traffic volume) layer
thicknesses, and material properties. The design limit
sensitivity analysis adopted in this study provides practical
interpretation of sensitivity by relating a given percentage
change in a MEPDG input to the corresponding percentage
change in predicted distress/service life relative to its design
limit value. The design inputs most consistently in the highest
sensitivity categories across all distresses were the hot mix
asphalt (HMA) dynamic modulus master curve, HMA
thickness, surface shortwave absorptive.
Keywords:
Flexi ble Pavements, Pavement Design,
Mechanistic- Empirical, Rutting, IRI, AASHTO, MEPDG,
sensitivity anal
1) Introduction And Background
The 1993 AASHTO design method for pavement
design and analysis and is a largely empirical method based
primarily on the AASHO Road Test conducted in the late 1950s.
Over the years adjustments and modifications have been made in
an effort to upgrade and expand the limits over which the
AASHTO guide is valid ]1[, ]2,[ ] 3],and[4]. A 1996 workshop
meant to develop a framework for imp roving the 1993 Gu ide
recommended instead the development of a new guide based as
much as possible on mechanistic princip les. The M-E PDG
developed in NHCRP 1-37A is the result of this effort.
Following independent reviews and validations that have been
ongoing since its initial release in April, 2004, the M-E PDG is
expected to be adopted by AASHTO as the new national
pavement design guide. In this part is divided in two sections.
The first describes the AASHTO Gu ide and its revisions since
its first edition dated 1961, with the original empirical equations
derived fro m the AASHO Road Test, to its latest dated 1993
[1],[ 2], [3],and[ 4]. The second part exp lains in some detail the
new ME- PDG procedure [5]. Several researchers have studied
the AASHTO Gu ide in all its versions. This sitution summarizes

the relevant findings gathered from the literature that discuss
conflicting issues such as traffic, material p roperties,
environmental conditions, and parametric sensitivity of the
design equation. Serviceability cannot be directly measured in
the field. A panel of users is required to provide subjective
assessments of serviceability. Th is value is the Present
Serviceability Rat io (PSR). The correlation of PSR with
measured distresses is the Present Serviceability Index (PSI).
PSI is the input parameter of the design equation, not the PSR,
because determining PSR is very subjective, not to mention
expensive and time consuming. Alternative approaches are
available correlating PSI with roughness, which is a more
reliable, and more easily measured parameter than the
recommended distresses given in Eq. [1],and [14].
Traffic has been a controversial parameter in the

1993 AASHTO Guide and its earlier vers ions. The fact that it
relies on a single value to represent the overall traffic spectrum
is questionable. The method used to convert the traffic spectra
into ESA Ls by applying LEFs is also questionable. The
AASHTO LEFs consider serviceability as the damag e
equivalency between two axles. Zhang et al. (2000) have found
that Eq. (2), used to determine LEFs, is inconsistent with
capturing damage in terms of equivalent deflection, which is
easier to measure and validate. However quantifying damage
equivalency in terms of serviceability or even deflections is not
enough to represent the complex failure modes of flexible
pavements.
Today it is widely accepted that load equivalency

factors were a simp le technique for incorporating mixed traffic
into design equations and were well suited for pavement
management systems. However pavement design applications
doi : 10.17950/ ijset/v5s1/120

ISSN:2277-1581
01 Jan.2016
require more co mprehensive procedures. Mechanistic-empirical

design procedures take a different approach for this problem;
different loads and axle geometrics were mechanistically
analyzed to determine directly the most critical structural
responses that were significant to performance predictions,
avoiding the shortcut of load equivalency factors.
The 1993 AASHTO Guide and its earlier versions
were developed based on results from one test site trafficked
over two years with a total of slightly over one million ESA Ls.
Fro m this test track, which was built with the same materials
varying only thicknesses, the design equation was developed.
Studies have shown that despite of the adjustments made over
the years to the design equation in attempts to expand its
suitability to different climate regions and materials, the design
of flexible pavements still lacks accuracy in performance
predictions and in ability to include different materials and their
complex behavior.
Emp irical Pavement Design Guide (M EPDG). The study

shared experiences from transportation agencies that have
performed various sensitivity analysis using the MEPDG
software, primarily related to flexib le pavement analysis.
The goal for the study was to communicate wh ich input
factors are important to the final pavement designs, so that
agencies can focus their research accordingly during the
implementation process.
What will be the impact of road traffic mix on the both
rutting depth and the IRI due to variation in AADT at
constant Agg. Size co mparing between asphalt mix
types (Marshall, super pave)?
What will be The impact of road traffic mix on the both

rutting depth and the IRI due to variation in AA DT at
constant Marshall mix type co mparing between Agg .
Size?
The M-E PDG developed in NCHRP 1-37A is a

mechanistic-emp irical (M-E) method for designing and
evaluating pavement structures. Structural responses (stresses,
strains and deflections) are mechanistically calcu lated based on
material properties, environmental conditions, and loading
characteristics. These responses are used as inputs in empirical
models to co mpute distress performance predictions. The M -E
PDG was released in draft form at the conclusion of NCHRP 137A in April, 2004 [5].
The M-E PDG still depends on empirical models to
predict pavement performance fro m calculated structural
responses and material properties. The accuracy of these models
is a function of the quality of the input information and the
calibrat ion of empirical distress models to observed field
performance. Two types of empirical models were used in the
M-E PDG. One type predicts the distress directly (e.g., rutting
model for flexib le pavements, and faulting for rig id); the other
type predicts damage which is then calibrated against measured
field distress (e.g., fatigue cracking for flexib le pavements, and
punchout for rigid).A description of the design process is
provided, followed by informat ion about the components of the
design procedure: inputs (design criteria, traffic, material
properties, and environmental conditions), pavement response
models (mechanistic structural computational tools and climate
model), emp irical performance models, and reliab ility.
The M-E approach for designing and evaluating
flexib le pavements represents a major step forward fro m purely
emp irical methods. Mechanistic models were employed for
predicting pavement responses and climatic effects on material
behavior. The pavement distresses were too complex to be
modeled by mechanistic models only. Emp irical models were
emp loyed to overcome these limitations of theory; the empirical
models establish a connection between structural responses and
performance prediction. Calibrat ion of the empirical distress
models is a crit ical requirement for quality performance predicti
What will be the impact of road traffic mix on the both

rutting depth and the IRI due to variation in AADT at
constant super pave mix type co mparing between Agg.
Size?
2) Problem Statement And Study Moti vation

This study was developed to provide information for
transportation agencies in the process of, or considering the
implementation of, the interim AASHTO Mechanistic
Page 96
3) Objecti ves Of Study

The main objectives of this study were:
The impact of road traffic mix on rutting and IRI depth

due to variation in AADT at constant Agg. Size
comparing between asphalt mix types (Marshall, super
pave).
The impact of road traffic mix on rutting depth and IRI
due to variation in AADT at both constant Marshall and
Superpave Mix types comparing between Agg. Size.
4) Research Methodolog y
The general intent of this Research is to overview the
concepts of sensitivity analysis and applications of the results in
guiding decisions during specific implementation of AASHTOs
interim MechanisticEmp irical Pavement Design Gu ide
(MEPDG). The results fro m the sensitivity studies performed
during the local calibration of the MEPDG models for are
specifically referenced. The Research underscores the
importance of sensitivity analysis as a decision support tool in
locally calibrating the MEPDG performance models and
illustrates an approach for setting up a successful sensitivity
study.
Results from the sensitivity analysis conducted for asphalt
concrete pavements will present. In addition, a discussion of
how the results will included in Egyptian specification and
design regulation including:
Assessing the quality of the prediction models and
model deficiencies,
Identifying factors that contribute most to the output
variability,
Assessing the impact of Egypt DOTspecific site and
design inputs on key design types and distress types of
interest.
doi : 10.17950/ ijset/v5s1/120

Identifying the region of input factors for which the

model variat ion is maximu m.
Selecting the appropriate input level to characterize key
inputs.
4.1 Scope of work
Five main roads were to be included in this study these
roads are:- Cairo- Is mailia, Cairo - Suez ,Cairo -Alex. Desert,
Cairo-Alex. Agric, and Cairo-belbs.Tuck presents for theses
investigated roads are obtained from General Authority for
Roads and Bridges and land transport. These percents are 16.82
%, 27.8%,34.59%,34.8%,and 8.27% respectively . Four traffic
volumes were selected to be investigated in the research which
are 10.000, 25.000, 50.000, and 100.000 v/d. Aggregate size is
also a variable parameter investigated in the work. Three
aggregate sizes were considered whish are 1,3/ 4, and 1/2 .
Two methods of mix design were tested in this analysis
,Marshall and Superpave procedures.To do the intended
sensitivity analysis using MEPDG software let us understanding
the software inputs and outputs to identify the required frame o f
work.
4.1.1 The Input data to MEPDG software are: Traffic
volume, Road type (% of truck), Max. Aggregate Size M ix
types. In an effort to identify the types of input and output
parameters for the MEPDG, the M EPDG report and software
program were studied. In the following, all the required input
parameters that are needed to perform analysis using the
MEPDG software are summarized.
A goal of flexib le pavement sensitivity investigation using (all
roads) data were to Input a wide range of input values to make
initial observations of changes in performance predictions. The
as-built pavement structure assumed to be 1.9 inches asphalt
concrete surface course, 2.36 inches asphalt concrete binder
course, 2.7 inches asphalt bitumen base course , and 17.7 inches
stone type base. The inputs were organized into material, traffic,
and climate categories and graphed based on distress prediction.
IRI and total rutting were the distress models in this studied
research. The initial IRI was assumed to be 64.6 in/mile with
different value of ADT, with several aggregate sizes. Sensitivity
data outputs during a 20 year period are presented in Tables (1)
through (12) and Figures (1) through (10).
4.1.2 The Output data to MEPDG software are
a) Pavement Performance Indicators (rutting depth )
b) international roughness index, ( IRI)
A variety of structural distresses were considered in flexible
pavement design and analysis. These include:
Bottom-up fatigue (or alligator) cracking.
Surface-down fatigue (or longitudinal) cracking.
Thermal cracking.
The designer may select some or all of these performance
indicators and establish criteria to evaluate a design and make
modifications if necessary. The performance criteria for each
distress will depend on the individual highway agencys
tolerance for the amount of cracking over the design period. The
performance criteria will also depend upon the design reliability
level, wh ich in turn will be dependent upon the functional class
of the roadway.
5) Results and Anal ysis
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5.1 Introduction
The main goal of this study is to identify the pavement
performance under several mix parameters and design inputs.
So, sensitivity analysis were done using ME- PDG software the
process of varying model input parameters (subgrade type, base
type) Over a practical range and observing the relative change in
model response (e.g., HMA rutting and IRI). The locally
calibrated MEPDG models can be evaluated for reasonableness
(i.e., do pavement deterioration predictions from these models
reflect actual observed pavement deterioration).In this part we
discuss precisely about the outcome of the results that has been
accomplished for the mix design. Co mparisons of Marshall and
Superpave methods based on mix designs
The purpose of this part can be stated in the following points:1. Summarize the parameters that have a pronounced effect
on pavement design.
2. Review the co mpatibility of M EPDG soft ware results.
3. Assess the reasonableness of predicted performance
using Level 3 baseline inputs of the soft ware.
5.2 M-E PDG Sensitivity Analysis and discussion
A number of M EPDG simu lations were run using the
MEPDG input database. Level 3 analysis were used in MEPDG
software runs since typical values for AASHTO and MEPDG
default values were used for some input values related to traffic
and material properties.
The Tables (1) through (12) and Figures (1) through (10) present
the results of sensitivity analysis studies prepared For 5 roads of
Egyptian network. Th is research investigated the effect of
selected input variables on two predicted pavement distresses:
1. Total rutting, in
2. Smoothness IRI, in/ mi.
5.2.1 Effect of traffic volume on rutting depth
Tables (1) through (3) summarize the results of the
sensitivity analysis for traffic volu me on rutting depth fo r at
constant mix type for d ifferent agg size 1,3/ 4 ,and 1/ 2.Based
on the data presented in Tables (1) to (3) Figure (1) was drawn.
Fro m the curve it was clear that the rutting values increase as
truck percent increase for different traffic values. Increasing
truck percent from 8.27 %, road 5 to 34.59 %, road 3 increase
rutting depth from 0.037 inches to 0.356 inches respectively in
Marshall Method for AADT 100000 vehicle /day at max agg .
size 1. This means that increasing truck percent by 26.32%
leads to increase in rut depth by 0.319 inch, i.e. by 25.8% of its
value. However this percent become 27.2 %, 26.6 % and 26.3
% for AADT of 10000, 25000, 50000 vehicle, respectively
Tables (4) through (6) show the results of the sensitivity
analysis for traffic volu me on rutting depth with Superpave mix
design techniques for different agg size 1,3/ 4 ,and 1/ 2.Based
on the data presented in tables, Figure (2) was drawn. Fro m the
curve it was clear that the rutting value increase as truck percent
increase for different AADT value. Increasing truck percent
fro m 8.27 %, road 5 to 34.59 %, road 3 increase rutting depth
fro m 0.037 inches to 0.242 inches respectively in Superpave
Method for AADT 100000 vehicle /day at max agg. Size 1.This
means that increasing truck percent by 26.32% leads to increase
in rut depth by 0.205 inch, i.e. by 23.8% of its value. However
doi : 10.17950/ ijset/v5s1/120

this percent become 25.5 %, 24.6 %, and 24.2 % for AADT of
10000, 25000, 50000 vehicle, respectively
Based on the pervious discussion it can be concluded
that , Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) value in all five
investigated roads have a significant effect on the predicted
pavement performance distresses AADT value affects both
rutting predictions.
5.2.2 Effect of traffic volume on IRI
Tables (7) through (9) summarize the results of the
sensitivity analysis for traffic volu me on IRI at constant mix
type for different agg size 1, 3/4, and 1/2. Based on these
results Figure (3) constructed.From the curve it was clear that
the IRI value increase as truck percent increase for different
AADT value. Increasing truck percent fro m 8.27 %, road 5 to
34.59 %, road 3 increase IRI fro m 75.7 inches/mile to 88.5
inches/mile for in Marshall Method at AADT 100000 vehicle
/day at max agg size 1.Th is means that increasing truck percent
by 26.32%leads to increase in IRI value by 12.8 inch/ mile,
about. 3% of its value. However this percent become 2.02 %,
2.3 %, and 2.7 % for AADT of 10000, 25000, 50000 vehicle,
respectively
Tables (10) through (12) show the results of the
sensitivity analysis for traffic volu me on IRI with Superpave mix
design techniques for different agg size 1, 3/ 4, and 1/ 2.Based
on the data presented in the tables Figure (4) was drawn. Fro m
the Figure it was clear that IRI value increase as truck percent
increase for different AADT value. Increasing truck percent
fro m 8.27 %, road 5 to 34.59 %, road 3 increase fro m the IRI
value fro m 75.7 inches/mile to 83.9 inches/mile respectively. in
Superpave Method for AADT 100000 vehicle /day at max agg
size 1.This means that increasing truck percent by 26.32% leads
to increase in IRI by 8.2 inch, i.e. by 2%of its value. However
this percent become 1.3 %, 1.5 %, and 1.79 % for AAD 0T of
10000, 25000, 50000 vehicle, respectively
In general, Traffic variables AADT and vehicle class
distribution have an expected influence on the predicted
pavement distresses and roughness IRI (Figures 1 through 4).
Traffic volu me was the most significant variable with a large
impact on Asphalt Concrete rutting depth (Figures 1 and 2). For
all pavement distresses and roughness IRI, values increased with
the increase of the AADT and the vehicle class distribution was
expected, with the increase of these two variables the predicted
pavement distresses and IRI increased as well. This study had
confirmed this predict ion.
5.2.3 Effect of aggregate size on rutting, and IRI for different
AADT val ues
Were investigated through There sizes as follows:
For max agg. Size 1
Table (1) and (4) su mmarize the results of the
sensitivity analysis for max agg. 1 on rutting depth with
Marshall and Superpave mix types. Based on the data presented
in theses tables the Figure (5) was drawn. Fro m the curve it was
clear that the rutting value increase as truck percent increase for
different AADT value. Increasing truck percent from 8.27 %,
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01 Jan.2016
road 5 to 34.59 %, road 3 increase rutting depth from 0.037

inches to .356 inches respectively for Marshall method at AADT
100000 vehicle /day. Increasing truck percent from 8.27 %,
inches to .242 inches respectively in Superpave method for
AADT 100000 vehicle /day constant agg. Size. Increasing truck
percent by 26.32% leads to increase in rut depth by 0.205 inch,
i.e. by 23.8% of its value in Superpave method even the rut
depth is 0.319 inch, i.e. by 25.8% of its value in Marshall
Method.
This means that large changes in input parameters produced
relatively small response of rutting performance predict ions in
Superpave method.
Tables (7) and (10) summarize the results of the
sensitivity analysis for max agg. 1 on IRI with Marshall and
Superpave mix types. Based on the data presented in tables (7)
and (10) the figure (6) was drawn.Fro m the curve it was clear
that IRI value increase as truck percent increase for different
AADT values at constant agg. size. Increasing truck percent
fro m 8.27 %, road 5 to 34.59 %, road 3 increases IRI fro m 75.7
inches/mile
to 88.5 inches/mile respectively for Marshall
Method at AADT 100000 vehicle /day. Increasing truck percent
fro m 8.27 %, road 5 to 34.59 %, road 3) increase IRI fro m 75.7
inches/mile to 83.9 inches/mile respectively in Superpave
Method for AADT 100000 vehicle /day. Increasing truck percent
by 26.32% leads to increase in IRI by 8.2 inches/mile, i.e. by 2%
of its value in Superpave method even the IRI is 12.8
inches/mile, i.e. by 3% of its value in Marshall Method. This
means that large changes in input parameters produced relatively
small response of IRI performance predict ions in Superpave
method.
For max agg. Size 3/4
Table (2) and (5) summarize the results of the
sensitivity analysis for max agg. 3/ 4 on rutting depth with
in the tables (2) and (5) the figure (7) is drawn. Fro m the curve it
is clear that the rutting value increase as truck percent increase
for different AADT value. Increasing truck percent fro m 8.27 %,
inches to 0.362 inches respectively for Marshall method at
AADT 100000 vehicle /day constant agg. s ize. Increasing truck
percent from 8.27 %, road 5 to 34.59 %, road 3 increase rutting
depth from 0.037 inches to 0.243 inches respectively in
Superpave method for AADT 100000 vehicle /day constant agg.
size. Increasing truck percent by 26.32% leads to increase in rut
depth by 0.206 inch, i.e. by 23.8% of its value in Superpave
method even the rut depth is 0.325 inch, i.e. by 25.8% of its
value in Marshall Method. This means that large changes in
input parameters produced relatively small response of rutting
performance predictions in Superpave method.
sensitivity analysis for ma x agg. 3/4 on IRI with Marshall and
Superpave mix types. Based on the data presented in the tables
(8) and (11) the figure (8) was drawn. Fro m the curve it is clear
that IRI value increase as truck percent increase for different
AADT value. size. Increasing truck percent fro m 8.27 %, road 5
doi : 10.17950/ ijset/v5s1/120

to 34.59 %, road 3 increases IRI fro m 75.7 inches/mile to 88.7
inches/mile respectively for Marshall method at AADT 100000
vehicle /day. Increasing truck percent from 8.27 %, road 5 to
34.59 %, road 3 increase IRI fro m 75.7 inches/mile to 83.9
inches/mile respectively in Superpave method for AADT
100000 vehicle /day .Increasing truck percent by 26.32% leads
to increase in IRI by 8.2 inches/mile, i.e. by 2% of its value in
Superpave method even the IRI is 13 inches/mile, i.e. by 3% of
its value in Marshall Method. This means that large changes in
input parameters produced relatively s mall response of IRI
For max agg. Size 1/2
Table (3) and (6) su mmarize the results of the
sensitivity analysis for max agg. 1/ 2 on rutting depth with
in the tables (3) and (6) the Figure (9) was drawn. Fro m the
curve it is clear that the rutting value increase as truck percent
increase for different AADT value. Size. Increasing truck
percent from 8.27 %, road 5 to 34.59 %, road 3 increase rutting
depth from 0.038 inches to 0.37 inches respectively for Marshall
method at AADT 100000 vehicle /day. Increasing truck percent
fro m 8.27 %, road 5 to 34.59 %, road 3 increase rutting depth
fro m 0.037 inches to 0.238 inches respectively in Superpave
method for AADT 100000 vehicle /day. Increasing truck percent
by 26.32% leads to increase in rut depth by 0.201 inch, i.e. by
23.7% of its value in Superpave method even the rut depth is
0.332 inch, i.e. by 25.8% of its value in Marshall Method. This
means that large changes in input parameters produced relatively
small response of rutting performance predictions in Superpave
method.
sensitivity analysis for ma x agg. 1/2 on IRI with Marshall and
Superpave mix types. Based on the data presented in the tables
(9) and (12) the Figure (10) was drawn. Fro m the curve it was
clear that IRI value increase as truck percent increase for
different AADT value. Increasing truck percent from 8.27 %,
road 5 to 34.59 %, road 3 increases IRI fro m 75.7 inches/mile to
89 inches/mile respectively for Marshall method at AADT
100000 vehicle /day. Increasing truck percent from 8.27 %, road
5 to 34.59 %, road 3 increase IRI fro m 75.7 inches/mile to 83.7
inches/mile respectively in Superpave Method for AADT
100000 vehicle /day . Increasing truck percent by 26.32% leads
to increase in IRI by 8 inches/mile, i.e. by 1.9 % of its value in
Superpave method even the IRI is 13.3 inches/mile, i.e. by 3.1 %
of its value in Marshall Method. This means that large changes
in input parameters produced relatively small response of IRI
Generally, the results the mid-range to the coarse side
provides the best results in terms of resistance to permanent
deformation/rutting. There are exceptions to this where dry
materials with high fines contents can reduce the amount of
permanent deformat ion. Resilient modulus results are more
scattered and tend to increase with increasing fines contents.
This increase in modulus for higher fines contents is probably
caused by the increase in density due to the fines filling the
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voids and thus giving less secondary densification. Also resilient

modulus decreases and permanent strain increases with
increasing water content. Finer grading was more affected by
increasing water content.
Previous research has revealed that fine grading have a
lower strength when wet compared with coarse grading, wh ile
the opposite is the case when dry and/or when a modifier like
cement is added (i.e. fine grading are best).The literature
reported that finer grading could be more easily constructed with
less segregation and lower total voids to minimize any further
densificat ion after opening a pavement to traffic.
Grad ing with aggregate size of 1/2, and 3/4 showed
that the best performance (least rutting) in super pave mix type
was obtained with the coarse grading with a 1. The best
performance in super pave mix type was obtained at a finer
grading with 1/2 aggregate size .Grading with aggregate size of
1, and 3/4 showed that the best performance (least rutting) in
Marshall Mix type was obtained grading with a 1/2. The best
performance in Marshall Mix type was obtained at a course
grading with 1 aggregate size
On the Tables presents the Egypt overall ranking
summary of significance of each output parameter on the
performance of flexible pavement. This study finds the most
significant variab les which impact the predictions of pavement
distresses in the republic. This study was very subjective and
depends on the variables chosen to be investigated. In this
example, based on the total ranking points (smaller nu mbers had
a higher effect), the following variab les have a significant
impact on the pavement distress prediction in Egypt: Aggregate
size, Traffic distribution (AADTT), Mix type .In the above
overall order of significance ranking the high position of the
traffic volume was surprising. This research did not investigate
how realistic ranking of the traffic volu me is as a variable for
pavement performance predictions. It is up to the republic
agency to decide if the change of traffic volu me and its range
could really affect the pavement performance.
6) Conclusions
Based on the analysis and discussion of the study results,
the following conclusion may be obtained:
1. The MEPDG distress transfer functions have been
validated for use in Egypt. The area HMA rut depth,
transverse cracking, and smoothness prediction models
(IRI) are believed to be adequate for use in Egypt . It is
recommended that Roads and Bridges Authority move
forward with using these distress prediction models in
analyzing and designing flexible pavements and HMA
overlays.
2. The MEPDG-pred icted IRI values are in good
agreement with the actual IRI values fro m all road test
for flexib le and HMA overlaid pavements.
3. Bias (systematic difference) found in MEPDG rutting
and faulting models can be eliminated by recalibrating
the MEPDG performance models to Egypt highway
conditions and materials.
doi : 10.17950/ ijset/v5s1/120

4.
Irregularity trends in some of the distress measures

recorded in Egypt roads for certain pavement sections
are observed. These may need to be removed from for
verification and MEPDG local calibration.
5. MEPDG provides individual pavement layer rutting
predictions while AASHTO provides only accumulated
(total) surface rutting observed in the pavement. This
can lead to difficulties in the calibrat ion of MEPDG
rutting models for co mponent pavement layers.
6. Increasing truck percent by 26.32% leads to increase in
rut depth by 23.8% of its value in Superpave method
even the rut depth was 25.8% of its value in Marshall
Method at max. agg. Size 1.
IRI by 2% of its value in Superpave method even the
IRI was 3% of its value in Marshall Method at max.
agg. Size 1.
Method at max at agg. Size 3/4.
IRI by 2% of its value in Superpave method even the
IRI was 3% of its value in Marshall Method at agg. Size
3/4 .
Method at agg. Size 1/2
IRI. by 1.9 % of its value in Superpave method even the
IRI was 3.1 % of its value in Marshall Method at agg.
Size 1/2
7) Recommendati ons
Based on the study analysis and conclusions, the
following reco mmendations are obtained:
1. Recalibrat ing the MEPDG performance models to
Egypt conditions is recommended to improve the
accuracy of predictions.
2. Before performing calibrat ion, it should be ensured that
pavement distress measurement units.
3. All the actual performance data should be subjected to
reasonableness check and any presence of irrational
trends or outliers in the data should be removed before
performing calibration.
ISSN:2277-1581
01 Jan.2016
iv. HRB. 1962. The AASHO Road Test. Report 7, Summary

Report, Highway Research Board Report 61G. Washington DC.
v. National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP).
(2004). Guide for Mechanistic-Empirical Design of New and
Rehabilitated
Structures.
NCHRP
Report
01-37A.
Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.
vi. Croney, D., and Croney, P. 1991. The design and
performance of road pavements. 2nd ed. Maidenhead, UK: McGraw
Hill
International.
vii. HRB (1962) The AASHO Road Test, Report 5: Pavement
Research; Report 6: Special Studies and Report 7: Summary Report,
Highway Research Board
viii. Asphalt Institute (1991) DAMA (CP-1/1991 Revision)
Pavement Structural Analysis Using Muli-Layered Elastic Theory,
Lexington, KY.
ix. Leahy, R.B., Permanent Deformation Characteristics of
Asphalt Concrete, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Maryland, College
Park, 1989.
x. Burmister, D.M. (1943) The Theory of Stresses and
Displacements In Layered Systems and Applications to the Design of
Airport Runways, Proceedings, Highway Research
Board, Vol. 23.
xi. Ayres, M. (1997) Development of a Rational Probabilistic
Approach for Flexible Pavement Analysis, Ph.D. Dissertation,
University of Maryland, College Park, MD.
xii. Kaloush, K. E. and Witczak, M. W. (2000). Development of a
Permanent to Elastic Strain Ratio Model for Asphalt Mixtures.
Development of the 2002 Guide for the Design of New and
Rehabilitated Pavement Structures. NCHRP 1-37 A. Inter Team
Technical Report. Sept. 2000.
xiii. Tseng, K. and Lytton, R. (1989) Prediction of Permanent
Deformation in Flexible Pavement Materials. Implication of
Aggregates in the Design, Construction, and Performance
of Flexible Pavements, ASTM STP 1016, ASTM, pp. 154-172.
xiv. Al-Omari, B., and M. I. Darter (1994). "Relationships
Between International Roughness Index and Present Serviceability
Rating,"
Transportation
Research
Record
1435,Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
xv. R. Jones (2000).ISLAB2000 - Finite Element Analysis
Program for Rigid and Composite Pavements, Users Guide, ERES
Division of ARA, Inc., Champaign, IL.
xvi. Zaghloul, S., El Halim, A. A., Ayed, A., Vitillo, N., and
Sauber, R. 2006. Sensitivity analysis of input traffic levels on MEPDG
predictions. CD-ROM. Presented at 85th Annual
Transportation Research Board Meeting. Washington, DC:
Transportation
Research Board.
xvii. FHWA. 2001. Traffic Monitoring Guide. Office of Highway
Policy Information. U.S. Department of Transportation. Federal
Highway Administration. Ma
References
i. AASHTO. (1972). AASHTO Interim Guide for Design of
Pavement Structures. Washington, DC.
ii. American Association of State Highway and Transportation
Officials (AASHTO). (1986) AASHTO Guide for Design of
Pavement Structures. Washington, DC.
iii. American Association of State Highway and Transportation
Officials (AASHTO). (1993) AASHTO Guide of Pavement
Structures. Washington, DC.
Page 100
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Table (1): values of

constant agg. Size 1
ISSN:2277-1581
01 Jan.2016
rutting due to variation in AADT at
Table (5): values of rutting due to variation in AADT at constant

agg Size 3/4
constant agg. Size 3/4

agg Size 1/2
constant agg. Size 1/2
Table (7): values of IRI due to variation in AADT at constant

agg Size 1
agg Size
Page 101
doi : 10.17950/ ijset/v5s1/120

agg Size 3/4
ISSN:2277-1581
01 Jan.2016

agg Size 1/2

agg Size 1/2

agg Size 1
Figure (1): The relationship between truck percent and rutting

value with different agg. Size for Marshall.

agg Size 3/4

value with different agg size for Superpave
Page 102
doi : 10.17950/ ijset/v5s1/120

Figure (3): The relationship between truck percent and IRI value
with different agg size fo r Marshall.
Figure (4): The relationship between truck percent and IRI value
with different agg size at Superpave mix type.

value at constant agg size co mparing between asphalt mix types
(Marshall, Superpave).
Page 103
ISSN:2277-1581
01 Jan.2016
Figure (6): The relat ionship between truck percent and IRI value
constant agg size comparing between asphalt mix types

value constant agg. Size co mparing between asphalt mix type

value constant agg size co mparing between asphalt mix types
doi : 10.17950/ ijset/v5s1/120


value constant agg size co mparing between asphalt mixes types
(Marshall, Superpave)
ISSN:2277-1581
01 Jan.2016
Ahmed Mohamady Abd-Allah is currently assistant professor of

highway engineering and airports, faculty of engineering,
Zagazig University. He has a PH.D in Highway Engineering,
Cairo University, Egypt (September 2001).
His areas of interest include Pavement
Evaluation and Assessment, Pavement
Distresses and Rehabilitation, Field and
Laboratory Testing in Highway Engineering,
Pavement Management Systems, Laboratory
Testing for Highway Materials and Asphalt
Mixes, Imp roving the Properties of Highway Materials,
Behavior of Asphalt Mix Under Environ mental Effects and
Pavement Survey and Evaluation of Pavement Condition Index
(PCI).
Thesis Supervision:
19 M.Sc. Students in Highway Engineering
8 Ph.D. Students in Highway Engineering.
Mohamed Elsayed Ali BASIOUN is Dean,
Benha Faculty of Engineering since Feb.
2012 till now. Fu ll Professor, Sanitary
Engineering & Environ mental since
2008.Assistant
Professor,
Sanitary
Engineering & Environmental, fro m 2001to
2008.He is Egyptian Syndicate of
Professional
Engineers,
No.2457/ 1Engineering Sector Committee, Egyptian Supreme
Council of Universities.
Thesis Supervision:
9 M .Sc. Sanitary Eng ineering & Environ mental.
2 Ph.D. San itary Engineering & Environmental.
Figure (10): The relationship between truck percent and IRI

value constant agg size co mparing between asphalt mix types
Page 104
doi : 10.17950/ ijset/v5s1/120

Sensitivity Analysis in Pavement Performance Due To Variation in Hot Mix Asphalt Design Methodology

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International Journal of Scientific Engineering and Technology

Vo lu me No.5 Issue No.1, pp: 95-104