Ratios to be tested for Predictive Value

Prices

Symbol 31Dec'12 31Dec'13

$
$

CapGain Dividend Tot Rtn

2013
2013
$ 2013
$

C-B

TotRtn %
2013

D+E

F/B

Earnings per share (EPS)

2009
$

2012
$

2013
$

EPS
Growth
2009/12
%

Trailing Trailing Forward Forward

P/E
PEG
P/E
PEG
31Dec'12 31Dec'12 31Dec'12 31Dec'12
Ratio

Ratio

Ratio

Ratio

(I/H)^0.333-1

B/I

L/(K*100)

B/J

N/(K*100)

MO

31.42

38.39

6.97

1.84

8.81

28.04%

1.74

2.06

2.63

5.78%

15.25

2.64

11.95

2.07

AEP

42.68

46.74

4.06

2.03

6.09

14.27%

2.53

3.31

3.3

9.36%

12.89

1.38

12.93

1.38

AXP

57.48

90.73

33.25

1.24

34.49

60.00%

3.35

9.39

38.71%

6.42

0.17

6.12

0.16

AMT

77.27

79.82

2.55

1.4

3.95

5.11%

0.92

1.93

27.98%

40.04

1.43

38.64

1.38

LLL

76.62

106.86

30.24

2.2

32.44

42.34%

7.61

8.01

8.54

1.72%

9.57

5.56

8.97

5.21

8.95

Copied from Sheet 2

Sorted

Symbol

TotRtn
2013
%

Trailing
P/E
31Dec'12
Ratio

MO
AEP
AXP
AMT
LLL

28.04%
14.27%
60.00%
5.11%
42.34%

15.25
12.89
6.42
40.04
9.57

Symbol

TotRtn
2013
%

Trailing
P/E
31Dec'12
Ratio

AXP
LLL
AEP
MO
AMT

60.00%
42.34%
14.27%
28.04%
5.11%

6.42
9.57
12.89
15.25
40.04

Conclusion:
In these 5 particular stocks, there does not
appear to exist any obvious relationship
between the P/E ratios of stocks and their
Total Returns.
This is consistent with what may be
expected under the Efficient Market Hypothesis

ks, there does not

ous relationship
stocks and their

h what may be
t Market Hypothesis

Symbol

TotRtn
2013
%

AXP
LLL
AEP
MO
AMT

60.00%
42.34%
14.27%
28.04%
5.11%

Trailing
P/E
31Dec'121 Groups
Ratio
6.42
9.57
12.89
15.25
40.04

Average
Returns
for each
Group %

Low P/E

51.17%

Median
High
P/E

14.27%
16.58%

Copied from Sheet 2

Trailing
TotRtn PEG
Symbol
2013 31Dec'12
%
Ratio
MO
AEP
AXP
AMT
LLL

28.04%
14.27%
60.00%
5.11%
42.34%

2.64
1.38
0.17
1.43
5.56

Sorted

Symbol

AXP
AEP
AMT
MO
LLL

Trailing
TotRtn PEG
2013 31Dec'12
%
Ratio
60.00%
14.27%
5.11%
28.04%
42.34%

0.17
1.38
1.43
2.64
5.56

Conclusion:
In these 5 particular stocks, there does not
appear to exist any obvious relationship
between the PEG ratios of stocks and their
Total Returns.
This is consistent with what may be
expected under the Efficient Market Hypothesis

Hypothesis

Trailing
Average
TotRtn
PEG
Returns
Symbol 2013 31Dec'121 Groups for each
%
Ratio
Group
%
AXP 60.00%
0.17
Low
37.14%
AEP 14.27%
1.38
PEG
AMT
5.11%
1.43
Median 5.11%
MO
28.04%
2.64
High
35.19%
LLL
42.34%
5.56
PEG

Copied from Sheet 2

Forward
TotRtn
P/E
Symbol
2013 31Dec'12
%
Ratio
MO
AEP
AXP
AMT
LLL

28.04%
14.27%
60.00%
5.11%
42.34%

11.95
12.93
6.12
38.64
8.97

Sorted

Symbol

AXP
LLL
MO
AEP
AMT

Forward
TotRtn
P/E
2013 31Dec'12
%
Ratio
60.00%
42.34%
28.04%
14.27%
5.11%

6.12
8.97
11.95
12.93
38.64

Conclusion:

In these five particular stocks, the stocks with low P/E

ratio have high total return. The stock with median retu
has median total return. The stocks with High P/E ratio
have low Total Returns.

This is inconsistent with what

under the efficient market hy
this market does not seem to be

Forward
Average
TotRtn
P/E
Returns
Symbol 2013 31Dec'12 Groups for each
Group
%
Ratio
%
AXP 60.00%
6.12
Low
51.17%
LLL
42.34%
8.97
PEG
MO
28.04% 11.95 Median 28.04%
AEP 14.27% 12.93
High
9.69%
AMT
5.11%
38.64
PEG

stocks with low P/E

ock with median return
with High P/E ratio

nconsistent with what may be expected

he efficient market hypothesis, hence
does not seem to be an efficient market.

Copied from Sheet 2

Forward
TotRtn
PEG
Symbol
2013 31Dec'12
%
Ratio
MO
AEP
AXP
AMT
LLL

28.04%
14.27%
60.00%
5.11%
42.34%

2.07
1.38
0.16
1.38
5.21

Sorted

Symbol

AXP
AMT
AEP
MO
LLL

Forward
TotRtn
PEG
2013 31Dec'12
%
Ratio
60.00%
5.11%
14.27%
28.04%
42.34%

0.16
1.38
1.38
2.07
5.21

Conclusion:
In these 5 particular stocks, there does not
appear to exist any obvious relationship
between the PEG ratios of stocks and their
Total Returns.
This is consistent with what may be
expected under the Efficient Market Hypothesis

Hypothesis

Symbol

TotRtn
2013
%

Forward
PEG
31Dec'12
Ratio

AXP
AMT
AEP
MO
LLL

60.00%
5.11%
14.27%
28.04%
42.34%

0.16
1.38
1.38
2.07
5.21

Groups

Average
Returns
for each
Group %

Low PEG

32.56%

Median

14.27%

High PEG

35.19%

Ratios to be tested for Predictive Value

Trailing

Trailing

TotRtn

P/E

PEG

Symbol

2013
%

31Dec'12
Ratio

31Dec'12
Ratio

MO

28.04%

15.25

2.64

AEP

14.27%

12.89

1.38

AXP

60.00%

6.42

0.17

AMT

5.11%

40.04

1.43

LLL

42.34%

9.57

5.56

be tested for Predictive Value

Forward

Forward

P/E

PEG

31Dec'12
Ratio

31Dec'12
Ratio

11.95

2.07

12.93

1.38

6.12

0.16

38.64

1.38

8.97

5.21