Electoral Vote

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<div class="date"><span class="month">Jan.</span><span class
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<h1 id="News">News from the Vote
master</h1>

<a id="item-0"> </a>
<div class="top-box">
<span class="head-label"> TODAY'S HEADLINES (click to jump there; use your brows
er's "Back" button to return here) </span> <br />
<div class="headline-spacer"> <img src="http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Ar
t/spacer.gif" height="1" width="1" alt="" /> </div>
• <a href="#item-1">Republican Debate Postmorte
m</a> <br />
• <a href="#item-2">New York Daily News Is Not
Happy with Ted Cruz</a> <br />
• <a href="#item-3">Bettors Are Putting Their M
oney on Trump</a> <br />
• <a href="#item-4">Sanders Catches Up to Clint
on in Iowa</a> <br />

• <a href="#item-5">Bush Donors Anxiously Waiti
ng Permission to Jump Ship</a> <br />
• <a href="#item-6">Republicans in Congress Ver
y Nervous about Trump Candidacy</a> <br />
• <a href="#item-7">Gap Between the Parties is
Greater than Ever</a> <br />
• <a href="#item-8">Alan Wilson Is Still Alive<
/a> <br />
</div>
<br />
<h4><a href="http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Jan16.html#item-1">
Republican Debate Postmortem </a> </h4>
<p>The dust has now settled, and here's what they're saying about Donald Trump,
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Gov. John Kasich (R-OH), Gov.
Chris Christie (R-NJ), Jeb Bush, and Ben Carson in the sixth Republican
debate:</p>

<span class="bold">Left-leaning media</span><br />
<blockquote>
<span class="bold">The Boston Globe</span>
<a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/01/16/donald-trump-big-winnerdebate/jdp6C9LJzU6VVuZ4i2kHOO/story.html" target="_blank">Winner: Trump. Losers:
Rubio, Christie, Bush, Carson, Cruz.</a>
"As Chris Christie and Marco Rubio took turns trying to out-Trump Trump by
seeing who could say meaner and more dishonest things about President Obama
(Christie won, by calling the president a "petulant child.") As Jeb Bush shed
what was left of his dignity, Ben Carson composed delicious word salads, and
earnest and unctuous Ted Cruz demonstrated again why everyone in Washington
cannot stand him, Trump ran circles around all of them."<br />
<span class="bold">Politics USA:</span>
<a href="http://www.politicususa.com/2016/01/14/winners-losers-fox-business-repu
blican-debate.html" target="_blank">Winners: Cruz, Trump, Rubio. Losers: Bush, C
arson, Christie, Kasich.</a>
"Trump might have lost in a head to head with Cruz, but his personality had the
audience laughing and on his side. Trump stuck to much of his standard script,
and outside of Cruz, nobody could lay a hand on him. The Republican race is
clearly between Trump and Cruz with everyone else serving as a distant
second."<br />
<span class="bold">WaPo:</span>
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/14/winners-and-l
osers-from-the-sixth-republican-presidential-debate/" target="_blank">Winners: R
ubio, Trump, Cruz. Losers: Carson, Neil Cavuto/Maria Bartiromo.</a>
"7 dudes. 7 dark suits. 6 white shirts. 4 red ties. 3 blue ties. I mean, can't
we shake it up even a little bit? How about a gray suit? A purple tie? Some
stripes?"<br />
<span class="bold">CNN:</span>
<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/15/politics/republican-debate-2016-winners-l
osers/" target="_blank">Winners: Trump, Cruz, Christie, Nikki Haley. Losers: Car
son, Kasich, The <i>New York Times</i>.</a>
"John Kasich was also present last night—and that sums up his performance.
"<br />
<span class="bold">San Francisco Chronicle:</span>

<a href="http://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/saunders/article/Trump-and-Cruz-domi
nate-GOP-debate-6762735.php" target="_blank">Winners: Cruz, Trump. Losers: Bush,
Kasich, Carson.</a>
"[Trump]'s shameless, and yet—you cannot help but admire someone who butts
heads with the way politics usually work, and leaves the political establishment
woozy and seeing stars, while he happily straightens his tie."<br />
</blockquote>
<span class="bold">Right-leaning media</span><br />
<blockquote>
<span class="bold">The Hill:</span>
<a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/266011-gop-debate-winners-and-lose
rs" target="_blank">Winners: Cruz, Trump, and Christie. Losers: Carson, Bush, an
d Kasich.</a>
"Overall, this was a more energetic Trump than has been seen in some recent
debates, and at times he and Cruz engaged in a kind of Marvin Hagler-Thomas
Hearns verbal slugfest. Even if neither of them get the upper hand over each
other, they separated themselves from the rest of the field."<br />
<span class="bold">The Washington Times:</span>
<a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/14/republican-debate-winne
rs-and-losers/" target="_blank">Winners: Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Christie. Losers: C
arson, Kasich.</a>
"With their fake friendship on the rocks, Mr. Cruz, a favorite of tea partyers
and religious conservatives, held his own in the escalating feud with Donald
Trump, his top rival ahead of the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses."<br />
<span class="bold">Red State:</span>
<a href="http://www.redstate.com/2016/01/14/winners-losers-tonights-fox-business
-debate/" target="_blank">Winners: Rubio, Cruz, Trump. Losers: Carson, Christie,
Kasich, Bush.</a>
"The lighting was harsh. The makeup was caked on. After a slow opening segment,
the punches started flying, and a raucous crowd was engaged from the first
minute onward. At the end of the day, all of the major fights that we expected
to have occurred, including Trump v. Cruz, Christie v. Rubio, Jeb Bush v.
Himself, and John Kasich v. his own arms."<br />
<span class="bold">National Review:</span>
<a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/article/429824/charleston-republican-deba
te-attacks-frontrunners-ted-cruz-donald-trump" target="_blank">Winners: Cruz, Tr
ump. Losers: Bush, Kasich, Carson.</a>
"Just 18 days from the Iowa caucuses, the aperture is narrowing, and the
Republican primary is increasingly focused on four men: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz,
Marco Rubio, and Chris Christie."<br />
<span class="bold">Fortune:</span>
<a href="http://fortune.com/2016/01/15/who-won-the-republican-debate-2/" target=
"_blank">Winner: Trump. Loser: Carson.</a>
"The two leading contenders for the Republican nod pulled no punches in
attacking each other, and Trump demonstrated why he's the field's Teflon Don,
effectively reversing salvos aimed at him to damage his opponents instead."<br
/>
</blockquote>
<span class="bold">Foreign media</span><br />
<blockquote>
<span class="bold">BBC:</span>
<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-33531618" target="_blank">Winn
ers: Cruz, Trump, Christie, Rubio. Loser: Carson.</a>
"And if there's one big-takeaway from this sixth Republican contest, it's that
Donald Trump is improving as a debater - and that should be a big concern for
the Republican establishment."<br />
<span class="bold">The Telegraph (UK):</span>
<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/republicans/12101028/Who-wonthe-Republican-presidential-debate-Cast-your-vote.html" target="_blank">Winners:
Trump, Rubio. Losers: Bush, Carson.</a>
Trump will doubtless look back on his performance and tell himself he did a
tremendous job. It was classic Trump: uncompromising, combative, scant on detail
but full of bravado. Perhaps being booed when he needled Ted Cruz on whether he
could stand for president, given that he was born in Canada, may have ruffled
his quiff somewhat. But not for long. Cruz came across well—witty,
informed, smart—but made a serious error in attacking Trump for being "too
New York". Trump's response was devastating: he told how he saw New York react
with dignity and resilience, and was proud of the great city. Cruz could only
clap, realising his error. Trump triumphed."<br />
<span class="bold">The Economist:</span>
<a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2016/01/sixth-republi
can-debate" target="_blank">Winners: Trump, Cruz, Bush, Rubio. Losers: Carson, K
asich, Christie.</a>
"[The Republicans] may have to come to terms with having either a yellow-haired
populist or a Mephistophelian demagogue (whose views are the lite-version of the
populist's) as their candidate. The Democrats' camp must be rubbing their hands
at the prospect."<br />
</blockquote>
<p>Across the thirteen outlets, if we exclude people and entities who are not in
fact running
for the GOP nomination, the tally ends up like this:
<blockquote>
<span
<span
<span
<span
<span
<span
<span
class="bold">Trump:</span> 13 wins, 0 losses<br />

class="bold">Cruz:</span> 10 wins, 1 loss<br />
class="bold">Rubio:</span> 7 wins, 1 loss<br />
class="bold">Christie:</span> 4 wins, 4 losses<br />
class="bold">Bush:</span> 1 win, 7 losses<br />
class="bold">Kasich:</span> 0 wins, 8 losses<br />
class="bold">Carson:</span> 0 wins, 13 losses<br />
</blockquote>
<p>The consensus is pretty clear across the spectrum. Trump and Cruz
came out ahead, with Rubio and Christie forming a second tier of "winners." The
remaining trio did very badly. This fairly well mirrors the outcomes of the last
two or three debates and, in the aggregate, some very strong perceptions of the
race are starting to crystallize. Even much of the GOP establishment has begun
to accept that they need
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republicans-now-see-a-trump-cru
z-race-with-time-for-a-shift-running-out/2016/01/15/9b5d91f0-bbb4-11e5-b682-4bb4
dd403c7d_story.html" target="_blank">to be thinking</a>
in terms of a two-person contest, while many other commenters see a

<a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/306447/south-carolina-debate-crowns-go
p-final-four" target="_blank">"Final Four."</a></p>
Still, these are in the moment responses, and—as we and others repeat so
often—in politics a week is a lifetime. In particular, Cruz is seen as a
"winner" right now, but his attempt to defuse the birther issue and/or his swipe
at New York could prove to be damaging in the long term (see below for more).
That's what he gets for ruffling Donald Trump's quiff.
<p>As we noted, the fact checkers had their work cut out for them.
<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/14/politics/republican-debate-fact-check/" t
arget="_blank">CNN,</a>
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/01/14/fact-che
cking-the-sixth-round-of-gop-debates/" target="_blank">the <i>Washington Post</i
>,</a>
<a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2016/01/factchecking-the-sixth-republican-deba
te/" target="_blank">FactCheck,</a> and
<a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/jan/15/fact-checki
ng-fox-business-network-debate-south-ca/" target="_blank">Politifact</a>
have completed their work, and found a broad variety of statements to question.
The two most common subjects are Cruz's citizenship (an issue that
does not appear to be going away), and the various questionable statements made
by Chris Christie (particularly about Sonia Sotomayor). <i>Slate,</i> in fact
has a piece right now arguing that "straight shooter" Christie
<a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/01/chris_
christie_isn_t_as_honest_with_voters_as_he_says_he_is.html" target="_blank">may
be</a>
the most dishonest candidate in the race.</p>
<p>To nobody's surprise, Donald Trump "won" the Internet during the debate,
<a href="http://www.cnet.com/news/the-internet-christens-trump-the-gop-debate-wi
nner-again/" target="_blank">accounting</a>
for 38% of all Twitter mentions, with his defense of New York the most popular s
ubject. He also
dominated online polls, such as the one on
<a href="http://drudgereport.com/nowsc.htm" target="_blank">Drudge Report,</a>
where 52.9% of the 400,000-plus respondents gave the win to The Donald, followed
by 31.2% for Cruz, 8.7% for Rubio, 2.2% for Christie, and roughly 1.5% each for
Kasich, Carson, and Bush.</p>
<p>The moderators have also been excoriated for their performance, with feedback
nearly as bad
as the CNBC moderators got. <i>WaPo's</i> Chris Cillizza (in the article linked
above), wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
Look, moderating debates—especially at this level with this number of
candidates—is hard. But, the key to making these debates work as they
should is to force the candidates to get off their talking points—usually
by
asking pointed follow-up questions or allowing the candidates to go at one
another. There was way too little of either in this debate, meaning that we
didn't learn as much about who the candidates really are (and what they really
think) as we might have.
</blockquote>
<p>Slate's Justin Peters
<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/15/the_fox_business_chan
nel_gop_debate_was_weird_raucous_and_generally_terrible.html" target="_blank">wa
s even more unsparing:</a>
<blockquote>
What was clear Thursday was that the candidates interpret such shaky moderating
as a sign that they can say whatever they want. Not only did they interject at
will, but they did so in order to say things with no particular substance. Far
too often, Cavuto and Bartiromo offered the mere outlines of questions and then
let the candidates treat them like pivot points from which they could say
whatever. Interrogative minimalism can be a respectable debate-moderation
strategy. But on Thursday, it just felt like lethargy.
</blockquote>
<p>For the next GOP debate, on January 28, Fox will bring out its varsity team:
Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly, and Chris Wallace. Hopefully, they will not become part
of the story. It will also be interesting to see if Fox embraces the "Final
Four" notion, and sends Kasich, Bush, and Carson packing, since they seem, by
literally all accounts, to be adding nothing to the proceedings. More probably,
the media will let Iowans and New Hampshirites do their dirty work for them. (Z)
</p>
New York Daily News Is Not Happy with Ted Cruz </a> </h4>
<p>During Thursday's debate, Ted Cruz accused Donald Trump of having New York va
lues.
The <i>New York Daily News,</i> which endorsed Mitt Romney in 2012, didn't take
that too well
and ran the following front page.</p>
<img src="http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Images/NYDN_Ted_Cruz.jpg" alt="N
YDN" />
<br /> <br />
<p> Maybe Cruz forgot that New York sends 95 delegates to the Republican Nationa
l Convention, more than
all states except California, Texas, and Florida. Or maybe he thinks dissing New
York will win more
votes in the South than it loses in the North. Or maybe he wasn't thinking at al
l and was just mad at Trump
for not being nice to him. </p>
<p>While Cruz doesn't figure to win any electoral votes in the Northeast, irrita
ting people in New York
does have a real downside. A lot of the national media is located in New York an
d they can choose to play up
or ignore the story about whether he is a native-born citizen. If the media keep
this story going endlessly,
it can only hurt him. </p>
<p>While Cruz may not like New York values, he most certainly
<a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/266113-cruz-hates-new-york-valueslikes-new-york-money" target="_blank">loves New York money</a>.
The second largest check to his super PAC—for $11 million—came from
New York hedge fund manager
Robert Mercer. He has also received large donations from executives at Wall Stre
et firms, including from
Goldman Sachs, where his wife is an executive. Goldman also gave him a large loa
n to finance his campaign.
And Goldman isn't just any old investment bank. It's chairman and CEO, Lloyd Bla
nkfein, won an
<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michelangelo-signorile/ted-cruz-new-yorkvalues_b_8991552.html" target="_blank">award</a>
from the LGBT-oriented Human Rights Campaign for his leadership on marriage equa
lity. Not only has Goldman
long provided full benefits to same-sex partners of its employees, but Blankfein
lobbied the New York State
legislature hard in 2011 to get it to pass a bill allowing same-sex marriage.
He was also the driving force in getting other banks to provide full benefits to
same-sex partners.
So while Cruz may sound off about "New York values," he's actually in bed with t
hem. (V)</p>
Bettors Are Putting Their Money on Trump </a> </h4>
<p>Political betting is illegal in the U.S. but legal in the U.K., Ireland, and
some other countries.
The British bookie Website
<a href="http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/3686164/2016+US+Presi
dential+Election" target="_blank">William Hill</a>
takes bets on the Republican nomination, among other political races. Since peop
le there are risking their own money,
they may be more honest than what people tell a pollster.
One very nice property of betting sites is that it is real time. If a candidate
says something brilliant/stupid
during a debate, for example, bettors can use this knowledge to buy or sell bets
instantly.
In any event, here are the implied odds determined by bettors post debate. </p>
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" summary="" >
<tr> <td class="state-header" colspan="3"> <center>William Hill Betting </center
> </td> </tr>
<tr>
<td class="state-header"> Rank </td>
<td class="state-header"> Candidate </td>
<td class="state-header"> Pct </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> 1 </td>
<td class="red-item"> Donald Trump </td>
<td class="red-item"> 40.0% </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> Marco Rubio </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> Ted Cruz </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> Jeb Bush </td>

</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> Chris Christie </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> Mitt Romney </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> Ben Carson </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> John Kasich </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> Carly Fiorina </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> Mike Huckabee </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> Rand Paul </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> Rick Santorum </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> Paul Ryan </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> Susana Martinez </td>

</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> Condi Rice </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="red-item"> Eric Cantor </td>
</tr>
</table>
<br /> <br />
<p>What is interesting is the bettors think the Rubio is more likely to get the
nomination than Cruz. The pundits think that the Texan has the edge over the Flo
ridian.</p>
<p>On the Democratic side, bettors give Hillary Clinton an 82% chance of getting
the nomination and
Sen. Bernie Sanders a 25% chance. Martin O'Malley is tied with John Kerry for th
ird place at 1%, but slightly
ahead of Al Gore and Elizabeth Warren.
The scores don't add up to 100% because of the way odds are calculated. They pay
off at a lower rate than they
should in a fair game because the house takes a cut, the vig. (V)</p>
Sanders Catches Up to Clinton in Iowa </a> </h4>
<p>A new <a href="http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/01/1
4/iowa-poll-clinton-slides-leads-sanders-2-points/78738770/" target="_blank">pol
l</a>
from Ann Selzer, queen of the Iowa pollsters, puts Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in
a statistical tie with Hillary Clinton in the Hawkeye state.
She is at 42% and he is at 40% with a margin of error of 4.4%. Furthermore, he i
s climbing and she is dropping.
Some people are speculating this could be a rerun of 2008, when an unknown senat
or grabbed the crown she was
planning to use for her coronation.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, there are major differences between 2016 and 2008. In particula
r, Iowa Democrats are among the
most liberal in the country, which helped Obama and is helping Sanders. New Hamp
shirites are quirky and Sanders
is a neighbor so Sanders might be able to win the first two events. Then things
start to get interesting.
Next comes Latino-heavy Nevada on Feb. 20 and South Carolina on Feb. 27, followe
d by the rest of the South on March 1.
In the South, politics is very racially polarized. Most whites are Republicans a
nd most blacks are Democrats.
For Sanders, having to compete in eight states with majority black electorates (
or close to it) may not go
as smoothly as it did for Obama. In 2008, many voters in those states saw the no
mination of the first black presidential

candidate as hugely important.
Obama swept Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississi
ppi, and Louisiana.
That Sanders is popular among young
liberals is beyond dispute. What he needs to do—and quickly—is becom
e the first choice among poor
evangelical blacks in the South.</p>
<p>Below is a map from Steve Sims of who won which primary/caucus in 2008. Clint
on is in gold and Obama is in purple.</p>
<img src="http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Images/Dem_2008_map.jpg" alt="De
m 2008 map" />
<br /> <br />
<p>Note that Obama's strength was largely in two regions. He swept the South and
he won the poorly attended
caucuses and primaries in red states in the West. Clinton foolishly didn't think
she needed to worry about them,
so by getting a few thousand people to the polls, he was able to haul in the del
egates. This time she is going to
fight tooth and nail for places like Wyoming and Utah.</p>
<p>Sanders clearly understands what he has to do and is
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/16/us/politics/looking-at-later-primarie
s-bernie-sanders-works-to-strengthen-black-support.html?hp&action=click&
amp;amp;pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-c
olumn-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news" target="_blank">wo
rking hard</a>
to do it. He is running ads on black-oriented radio stations and visiting histor
ically black colleges in the South.
His pitch is that he marched with the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., thinks p
olice brutality is a major issue,
and wants to raise the minimum wage to $15/hour. Nevertheless, he has a steep hi
ll to climb. A recent Gallup
poll showed that 43% of blacks had a favorable view of him vs. 86% who viewed Hi
llary Clinton favorability.
His basic problem is not that blacks don't like his policies, but they like and
trust Clinton even more.
The most recent poll of South Carolina puts her ahead of him 69% to 21%, so he h
as a lot of catching up to do. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, many Democratic Party leaders are beginning to
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clintons-lead-is-evaporating-an
d-anxious-democrats-see-2008-all-over-again/2016/01/15/ebd8db3c-bacc-11e5-99f3-1
84bc379b12d_story.html" target="_blank">worry</a>
about what a Sanders candidacy would mean downticket. Would moderate Democrats c
ome out to vote for him?
While it is almost too much for political junkies to dream about, a Sanders vs.
Trump race would really stick it to
the establishment, with voters of both parties saying "no thanks" to the current
way of doing things.
Nevertheless, Sanders has to show he can do well in the South to prove that he i
s serious, just as Ted Cruz has to
show he is strong in the North. Sanders can't get the nomination just by winning
the Northeast and West Coast and
Cruz can't get it just by winning in the South. (V)</p>

Bush Donors Anxiously Waiting Permission to Jump Ship </a> </h4>
<p>When Jeb Bush announced his candidacy last July, donors were fighting each ot
her to be the first on his
bandwagon. Traffic is now heading in the other direction. Out of loyalty to the
Bush family, however, only a
couple of donors have already publicly left the Bush parade. Quietly, however, m
any are urging Bush to accept
reality and exit the race after he is crushed in New Hampshire, as everyone expe
cts. Then they will be
free to bet on a new horse, depending on what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Once Bush gives them
<a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/jeb-bush-donors-loyalty-217802" t
arget="_blank">permission</a>,
there will be a stampede toward the exit.</p>
<p>Political science students are going to be studying this race and scratching
their heads for decades to come.
Some of the takeaways so far:</p>
<ul>
<li>A candidate with a universally known name and $100 million was completely cr
ushed</li>
<li>A businessman who insulted women and preached bigotry and racism got off to
a blazing start</li>
<li>A U.S. senator despised by the other 99 senators proved popular with the vot
ers</li>
</ul>
<p>And the voting hasn't even started yet. Who knows what's yet in store? Donald
Trump winning the nomination
and then at his "acceptance speech" in Cleveland saying: "Thank you for the hono
r but I don't want job. It doesn't
pay very well"? (V)</p>
Republicans in Congress Very Nervous about Trump Candidacy </a> </h4>
<p>As Republicans gathered in Baltimore this weekend for their annual retreat, t
he elephant in the room
wasn't the party mascot. It was Donald Trump. When a reporter asked Rep. Peter R
oskam (R-IL) about aforesaid
pachyderm, he
<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-congress-idUSMTZSAPEC1F0
JJAT3" target="_blank">replied</a>:
"Heaven help us."
Other Republicans, such as Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI) helpfully pointed out: "He d
oes appeal to the anger."
Officially, Trump was not on the agenda, but in the hallways, he was topic A. Th
ey were worried that Trump
could embarrass the party and were more than worried that a Trump candidacy woul
d be a disaster downticket
as many loyal Republicans would simply sit out the election. They also have fear
s that he could redefine the
party from a conservative party to one based on anger, fear, and bigotry and it
could take a long time to
erase that image. (V)</p>
Gap Between the Parties is Greater than Ever </a> </h4>
<p>During campaign season, it is expected that the parties will take pot shots a
t one another. But this time
around it seems that their descriptions are referring to two
<a href="http://theweek.com/articles/599487/gop-debate-master-class-republicansapocalyptic-vision" target="_blank">different countries</a>
From President Obama's SOTU speech we learned:</p>
<ul>
<li>The United States has the strongest, most durable economy in the world</li>
<li>We're in the middle of the longest streak of private-sector job creation in
history</li>
<li>The United States is the most powerful nation on earth. Period.</li>
<li>We spend more on our military than the next eight nations combined</li>
</ul>
<p>However, according to the candidates at the sixth Republican debate in South
Carolina:</p>
<ul>
<li>Our military is a disaster (Trump)</li>
<li>In this administration, every weapon system has been gutted (Bush)</li>
<li>This country is not respected around the world anymore (Christie)</li>
<li>Let me tell you, if we don't get this election right, there may be no turnin
g back for America (Rubio)</li>
</ul>
<p>The Democrats are basically saying that while it's not perfect, the country i
s in decent shape. The
Republicans are saying it is a complete disaster, bordering on ruin. The whole c
ampaign is likely to be
about these competing visions.</p>
<p>Interestingly enough, one of the Democrats, Bernie Sanders, agrees with the R
epublicans that the country
is in terrible shape, although his arguments are rather different than theirs. H
e says the problem isn't a
crippled military, it is all-powerful corporations and wealthy political donors
who are the cause of its
problems. (V) </p>
Alan Wilson Is Still Alive </a> </h4>
<p>Who, might you ask, is Alan Wilson and why is his current presence on the pla
net politically important?
Excellent question. When Ted Cruz was born, in Canada, his mother put her name o
n the birth certificate as
Eleanor Darragh Wilson. Her first husband was Alan Wilson, who lives in London.
When a reporter called him
and told him that his ex-wife later had a child who is now a top contender for P
resident of the United States,
in that typical British understatement, he
<a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article549
91080.html" target="_blank">said</a>:
"I'll be darned," adding: "No kidding?"</p>
<p>Wilson could become an important witness if a court ever has to look into the
matter of whether Cruz's
mother met the

<a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal-considerations/us-citi
zenship-laws-policies/citizenship-child-born-abroad.html" target="_blank">reside
ncy requirements</a>
for her to transmit U.S. citizenship to baby Ted.
Wilson said that he and Eleanor lived in London for several years, which means t
hose years don't count
toward the residency test. </p>
<p>The possibility of a court case about Cruz's eligibility is not mere speculat
ion. A suit was
<a href="http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/cruz-lawsuit-birth-challenge" tar
get="_blank">filed</a>
Thursday in Texas claiming that Cruz is not a natural-born citizen. However, the
complaint is full of irrelevant material,
so Cruz may win an easy victory here and settle the matter once and for all.. (V
)</p>
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<!-<h1>Previous Headlines</h1>
-->

<a href="http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Jan15.html#item-1"> Jan
15 Republicans Get Down to Business in South Carolina</a> <br/>
15 Republicans Love Cruz, Carson, and Rubio the Most</a> <br/>
15 Trump Way Ahead Nationally in New Poll</a> <br/>
15 Cruz and Trump Backers in Iowa Differ on Some Issues</a> <br/>
14 Republicans Square Off in South Carolina Tonight</a> <br/>
14 Is Paul Ryan Really Headed for Big Things?</a> <br/>
14 New Iowa Poll: Cruz by a Nose</a> <br/>
14 Republican Donors Complaining about Lack of Return on Investment</a> <br/>

14 Republicans Tell Bush to Lay off Rubio</a> <br/>
14 Clinton Worried about Sanders</a> <br/>
14 The GOP Veepstakes Have Started</a> <br/>
13 State of the Union a Big Success</a> <br/>
13 Sanders Catching Up to Clinton in Iowa</a> <br/>
13 MoveOn Endorses Sanders</a> <br/>
13 Another Betting Market Says It's Hillary in 2016</a> <br/>
13 Young Women Support Sanders over Clinton</a> <br/>
13 Constitutional Law Professor: Cruz is Not a Natural-Born Citizen</a> <br/>
13 Repubicans Won't Approve Any New Obama Nominees</a> <br/>
12 Trump with Slight Lead in Iowa</a> <br/>
12 Obama's Final State of the Union is Tonight</a> <br/>
12 Why Have Recent Polls Been So Wrong?</a> <br/>
12 Clinton Calls for Surtax on the Rich</a> <br/>
12 Rubio Walking a Narrow Path in Iowa</a> <br/>
12 Thanks, Obama: Domestic Edition</a> <br/>
12 Rand Paul Goes Full Birther</a> <br/>
12 Paul's Presidential Campaign is Fading Fast</a> <br/>
12 More Carson Staffers Leave</a> <br/>
<a href="http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Jan12.html#item-10"> Ja
n12 Koch Brothers' Father Built Key Nazi Oil Refinery</a> <br/>
11 Cruz is Leading in Iowa, Trump in New Hampshire</a> <br/>
11 Supreme Court Could Decide the Presidency</a> <br/>
11 Trump Promises to Tax Wall Street</a> <br/>
11 Advice for Republican Candidates</a> <br/>
11 No Primary Endorsement for Obama</a> <br/>
11 Cruz: A Spectacular Liar</a> <br/>
11 Adelson Stymied by Family Dispute</a> <br/>
11 Thanks, Obama: North Korea Edition</a> <br/>
10 Could the Republican Party Split?</a> <br/>
10
<a
10
<a
10
<a
10
<a
10
<a
10
<a
10
<a
09
<a
09
<a
09
<a
09
<a
09
<a
09
Three Theories of Trump</a> <br/>

href="http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Jan10.html#item-3"> Jan
Another Theory of Trump: Ignorance</a> <br/>
Why Hate Jeb?</a> <br/>
Bush: Clinton Would Beat Trump Like a Drum</a> <br/>
Marco Rubio's Footwear Becomes a Campaign Issue</a> <br/>
Fiorina Weighs in on Bill Clinton's Infidelities</a> <br/>
Lena Dunham Campaigning for Clinton in Iowa</a> <br/>
Economy Adds Another 292,000 Jobs in December</a> <br/>
Is Donald Trump the New George Wallace?</a> <br/>
Poll: 20% of Democrats Would Vote for Trump</a> <br/>
Trump Is Not Living in Iowa or New Hampshire</a> <br/>
The Conventional Wisdom Is Often Wrong</a> <br/>
Democratic Candidates Get Testy</a> <br/>
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.html" class="download-link">Downloadable <br />polling data</a>

on in Iowa</a> <br />

<span class="bold">San Francisco Chronicle:</span>

class="bold">Trump:</span> 13 wins, 0 losses<br />

in terms of a two-person contest, while many other commenters see a

<td class="red-item"> Jeb Bush </td>

<td class="red-item"> Susana Martinez </td>

mination of the first black presidential

<a id="item-5"> </a>

mother met the

14 Republican Donors Complaining about Lack of Return on Investment</a> <br/>

Three Theories of Trump</a> <br/>

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