Building

Local Government Resilience

through Scenario Planning in
the Burnett Mary Region
OVERVIEW

Climate Variability
and Climate Change:
Scenarios and Projections

This paper has been prepared by the University of the Sunshine Coast for the Burnett Mary Regional Group by
Climate Change, Coasts and Catchments at USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education. November 2008

Climate Change, Coasts and Catchments

Faculty of Science, Health and Education
University of the Sunshine Coast

Contact
Greg Laves
Tel: 07 5459 4679
Email: glaves@usc.edu.au

Climate Change, Coasts and Catchments Team

Associate Professor Peter Waterman, Professor Richard Warwick, Dr. Peter Urich, Dr. Neil Tindale, Greg Laves,
Ashton Berry, Gary Duffy, Graham Ashford, Diana Clarke, Theresa Ashford Louise McDonell, Prue Pettett,
Gemma Wright and Amanda Tunbridge
November 2008
IMPORTANT NOTICE PLEASE READ
While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct,
neither the University of the Sunshine Coast nor the Burnett Mary Regional Group NRM Inc., accepts responsibility
for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may be
occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication.

Acknowledgements
Regional Water Supply Strategy is currently under development for the Wide Bay Burnett. A collaborative
partnership has been established between the Queensland Government, Local Governments, water service
providers, local industries, key stakeholders, and indigenous and community representatives to develop the strategy
with the Department of Natural Resources and Water (NRW) as the lead agency. A draft copy of the Strategy
is anticipated for public release and comment in 2009. The Burnett Mary Regional Group and our partners the
University of the Sunshine Coast would like to acknowledge the contribution of NRW in the development of this
overview document and the subsequent Working Papers series.

Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

1.0 Introduction
Purpose
This overview was prepared as part of a suite of working papers entitled Building Local Government Resilience through Scenario
Planning commissioned by the Burnett Mary Regional Group (BMRG) for Natural Resource Management Inc. The purpose of this
paper is to inform regional planning, local government, and regional stakeholders. This paper provides information on key findings
derived from: modelling climate change scenerios; and analysis of future climate conditions and their associated impacts on the
natural and human environment.

The Burnett Mary Region

The Burnett Mary Region is situated
within a subtropical climatic zone,
characterised by hot and moist summers
and relatively dry and cool winters.
Although most of the annual rainfall
occurs during the summer months, there
is considerable variability on the amount,
timing and location of rainfall events.
Daily temperatures also exhibit variability
within an overall seasonal pattern.
While the region has experienced
extreme weather events from time
to time, the overall climate has been
relatively consistent and favourable to
human settlement. The regions climate
has contributed to the evolution of a
rich and diverse natural environment
with many unique qualities.
Since the region was first settled,
extensive measures have been put
into place to cope with the impacts
of climate variability on agriculture,
infrastructure, water resources, human
health and livelihoods. This expanding
adaptive capacity has enabled the region
to enjoy considerable development
and population growth and seen a
sustained rise in the standard of living
for residents for many generations.
Indeed, the Burnett Mary is one of the
fastest growing regions in Queensland.
Recently, evidence of progressive and
irreversible changes to the regions climate
has become apparent. These changes
are likely to be far reaching and, when
combined with population growth and
other development pressures, will push
many human and natural systems beyond
their existing coping range, resulting in a
host of negative consequences. The most
significant impacts to human and natural
systems will be related to increased
incidences of extreme events such as
flooding, drought, high temperatures, heat
waves, and severe storms, rather than
gradual changes in average temperature.
The amplified potential for harm
highlights the importance of
investigating: the effects of climatic
variability; the potential extent of climatic
change in the region; and how it may
exacerbate existing vulnerabilities or

introduce new ones. Such knowledge

will support a proactive and anticipatory
approach to land use, and infrastructure
(planning and maintenance), livelihoods
and lifestyles, health and natural resource
management to better the chances
of a successful adaptive response.

2.0 Global Warming

and Climate Change
Evidence of Global Climate
Change
In 1988, the World Meteorological
Organization and the United Nations
Environment Programme established
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). In the two decades since its
inception, a massive international scientific
effort has been undertaken to answer
two fundamental questions: whether
current global climate variability is outside
of the Earths normal range, and if so,
whether it is a result of human activities.
In its Fourth Assessment Report, published
in 2007, the IPCC concluded that:
Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of increases in global average
air and ocean temperatures, widespread
melting of snow and ice and rising global
average sea level. (IPCC 2007b).
Observational evidence from all continents
and most oceans shows that many
natural systems are being affected by
regional climate changes, particularly
temperature increases. (IPCC 2007b).
The radiative forcing of the climate
system is dominated by the long-lived
greenhouse gases (primarily carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide) which have
increased markedly as a result of human
activities since 1750 and now far exceed
pre-industrial values determined from ice
cores spanning many thousands of years.
The atmospheric concentrations of CO2
and CH4 in 2005 exceed by far the natural
range over the last 650,000 years. Global
increases in CO2 concentrations are due
primarily to fossil fuel use, with land-use
change providing another significant but
smaller contribution. (IPCC 2007b).

The accumulation of these gases to date,

and their longevity in the atmosphere,
means that we are already committed
to an enhanced greenhouse effect for
many decades to come even if all further
emissions were stopped immediately.
Given that global emissions currently
exceed the high end of anticipated
trajectories and show no signs of slowing
down, it is reasonable to conclude that
major climatic changes are inevitable
and that adaptation to the impacts will
be necessary. This does not obviate the
need for immediate and meaningful
international mitigation efforts to reduce
the severity of future consequences.

Global Climate Models

and Patterns of Change
Climate modelling has advanced
considerably since the IPCC released its
First Assessment Report in 1990. Better
data sets, superior computing power,
and evolving scientific knowledge of
the interaction of atmospheric, oceanic
and terrestrial systems have enabled
newer models to simulate existing
climate conditions at a finer spatial
resolution and with greater accuracy
than earlier models. The accuracy of
regional modelling has also increased.
Nonetheless, global climate modelling
remains an extremely complex, costly and
time intensive exercise that is currently
only conducted by a handful of countries
that possess the scientific knowledge
and financial resources. This makes it
difficult for researchers, planners and
policy makers to obtain a wide range of
regionally relevant scenarios from different
general circulation models (GCMs) that
consider alternative emission scenarios.
Given the practical limitations of obtaining
GCM output at a regional and local
scale, an alternative approach has been
developed and is now in widespread use,
including by CSIRO. The approach, know
as linked pattern scaling, uses the patterns
of climate change produced by complex
GCMs standardised to a one degree change
in global average surface temperature,
then employs a simplified model to
calculate the change in global temperature
that will result under alternative

USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education | 1

Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

Climatic Changes in the

Burnett Mary Region
Since 1950

emissions scenarios. This produces a

pattern of change for each 125km2
cell, which is then used to scale up or
down the actual baseline temperature
and precipitation data for each location
within that cell. The approach is
one of the most scientifically robust
methods of producing local estimates
of climate change, and is embodied in
the SimCLIM software program used to
develop the scenarios for this paper1.
Presently, there are more than two dozen
scientifically credible GCMs in use around
the world. Given the extreme complexity
of simulating all of the atmospheric,
terrestrial and oceanic interactions, the
models produce somewhat different
patterns of change depending on the
variables that are included and the
specifications of their interactions. The
models selected to produce the scenarios
in this paper were chosen for their ability
to accurately simulate current conditions
for Australia, including temperature,
precipitation and regional events such
as the El Nio Southern Oscillation2.

Emission Scenarios
Because projections of climate change
depend heavily upon future human
activity, climate models must make
assumptions about how the future of
global emissions of greenhouse gases will
unfold over the rest of the century. The
IPCC has developed an elaborate set of
emissions scenariosinternally consistent
and plausible descriptions of a possible
future state of the worlds greenhouse gas
emissions. These are depicted in Figure 1.
The scenarios for this research paper use
A1B as a mid-range emissions scenario
and A1FI as a high emission scenario.
Most of the scenarios constructed in
this paper are for the year 2050, as it
provides a useful interim time period over
which impacts can be clearly identified
and adaptive strategies evaluated. In
some cases, scenarios for 2030 and 2100
are also generated where informative.

FIGURE 1

IPCC SRES Emission Scenarios

The A1FI and A1B emission scenarios
emerge from the A1 storyline of a
future characterised by very rapid
economic growth, global population that
peaks in the mid-century and declines
thereafter, and the rapid introduction
of new and more efficient technologies.
Underlying this storyline are themes of
convergence among regions, capacity
building and increased cultural and
social interactions, with a substantial
reduction in regional differences in
per capita income (IPCC 2000).

Carbon Cycle and

Climate Sensitivity
Climate sensitivity refers to the
equilibrium change in global mean
surface temperature following a
doubling of the atmospheric (equivalent)
CO2 concentration. The IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report indicates that the
value is likely to be in the range 2 to
4.5C with a best estimate of about 3C.
Uncertainty arises because, in addition
to the radiative forcing generated by
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) , there are also
system feedbacks including a water vapour
feedback, an ice-albedo feedback, a cloud
feedback, and a lapse rate feedback.
Unless otherwise stated, the scenarios
produced in this paper use the best
estimate value from the Third Assessment
Report of approximately 2.5C.

SimCLIM is the outcome of ten years of collaborative

research at the International Global Change Institute
at the University of Waikato in New Zealand. It is
in widespread use around the world. CSIRO uses
a variant of the SimClim software developed for
Australia called OzCLIM.

Models were selected based on their M-Skill score,

a measure of their ability to simulate current climate
conditions and phenomena.

2 | USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education

Changes that have been observed across

Queensland and within the Burnett
Mary Region over the last 60 years are
consistent with global predictions of
climate change (rising temperatures;
changes in the timing, location,
frequency and intensity of precipitation;
and rising sea level) and are indicative
of expected future changes.

Temperature
Over this period annual average
temperatures have increased in the
Burnett Mary Region by 0.25C per
decade, a faster rate then the National
average. Minimum temperatures
increased at a greater rate then
maximum temperatures during the
period (Office of Climate Change 2007).

Precipitation
Although parts of the north-west region
of Australia saw more rain, much of
central Queensland experienced a
significant drying trend, including the
Burnett Mary Region which experienced
a decrease of 30-50mm per decade.
A greater proportion of total rainfall now
falls in extreme events (Office of Climate
Change 2007).

Maximum temperatures
Observations indicate an increasing
number of days each year in which
the temperature exceeds 35C.
This trend is more pronounced over
inland areas than coastal locations
(Office of Climate Change 2007).

Cyclones
Available data suggest that the total
number of tropical cyclones may
have decreased although the number
of severe cyclones has increased
(Office of Climate Change 2007).

Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

3.0 Projections of Climate Change

Figure 2 illustrates the projected changes
in average temperature on a seasonal
basis with the actual baseline (average
of 1961-1990) in the top row, the
projection for 2050 in the middle row
and the percentage change from baseline

Dec, Jan, Feb

BASELINE

The images in the last row illustrate

the percentage change from the World
Meteorological baseline conditions
given as 1961-1990 to the projection
at 2050. The images indicate that the
rate of warming will be greater for
inland locations than coastal locations.

Jun, Jul, Aug

Sep, Oct, Nov

Dec, Jan, Feb

Mar, Apr, May
Jun, Jul, Aug
Projected mean temperature HADGEM A1B Year: 2050

Sep, Oct, Nov

Dec, Jan, Feb

Mar, Apr, May
Jun, Jul, Aug
Percent change from baseline HADGEM A1B Year: 2050

Sep, Oct, Nov

FIGURE 2

Mar, Apr, May

in the bottom row. Across the entire

region the average seasonal temperature
change is smallest during the fall season
from March to May, and largest in the
winter season from June to August. The
changes are summarized in Table 1.

Mean temperature by season. The baseline is an average of 19611990 actual observations

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Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

TABLE 1
Seasonal Average Temperature Change from Baseline Conditions in the Burnett
Mary Region
SEAS O N A L AV E R A G E T E M P E R AT U R E

(HADGEM model A1B emissions)

Average temp

Dec, Jan, Feb

Mar, Apr, May

Jun, Jul, Aug

Sep, Oct, Nov

1961-1990

23.68

19.25

12.60

18.97

2050

25.13

20.69

14.25

20.54

Change in C

1.45

1.44

1.65

1.57

Maximum Average Temperature

Average maximum temperature is defined as the average of the highest ten
percent of values for the time period, in this case the summer months of
December, January and February.

Baseline Dec, Jan, Feb

HadCM3 A1B Year: 2050 HadCM3 A1B Year: 2100

FIGURE 3

Maximum Average Temperature in SummerDec, Jan, Feb

Under the A1B emissions scenario, average maximum temperatures in the

region will rise by approximately 2C by 2050 and 4C by 2100. The fact that
temperature increases will continue at the same rate from 2050 to 2100 even
though emissions are declining through that period illustrates the longevity
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the considerable amount of
time it take for the system to reach a new steady state equilibrium.

Frequency of extreme high temperature events

The following section examines maximum temperatures in two specific locations,
Bundaberg and Gayndah. These two locations were selected since they have good
observational temperature and precipitation data for more than one hundred
years. As well they are representative of coastal and inland locations.
Figure 4 plots the return period for maximum summer (DecFeb) temperatures
in Gayndah over the period 1961-1990. For example, the blue square on the
plot represents 42C. Based on historical data (10950 observations from 19611990), a maximum temperature of 42C was quite a rare event, occurring on
average only about once in twenty five years. The table in Figure 5 illustrates
how extreme events are likely to become more frequent with climate change.

4 | USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education

FIGURE 4
Gayndah Post Office Extreme
Temperature Return Periods

Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

TABLE 2

Table 2 illustrates the likely occurrence of

extreme temperatures for Gayndah for the
year 2050 using CSIROs Mk2 GCM pattern
and assuming an A1B emission scenario.

Gayndah Likely Occurrence of Extreme Temperatures

Gayndah
Scenario

Return period for days over 42C event

19611990 baseline

Once every 25.18 years

2050

Once every 5.98 years

2100

Once every 2.33 years

Gayndah
Scenario

Return period for days under 0C event (freezing)

19611990 baseline

Once every 1.58 years on average

2050

Once every 2.97 years on average

2100

Once every 8.18 years on average

TABLE 3

Table 3 illustrates the likely occurrence

of extreme temperatures for Bundaberg.

Bundaberg Likely Occurrence of Extreme Temperatures

Bundaberg
Scenario

Return period for days over 38C event

19611990 baseline

Once every 22.88 years on average

2050

Once every 7.14 years on average

2100

Once every 6.24 years on average

Bundaberg
Scenario

Return period for days under 0C event (freezing)

19611990 baseline

Once every 3.07 years on average

2050

Once every 8.55 years on average

2100

Once every 9.96 years on average

Gayndah
Annual number of days above 35C

Bundaberg
Annual number of days above 35C

FIGURE 5
Projected Changes in days hotter than 35C

The graphs in figure 5 illustrate the

projected change in the total annual
number of days in which the temperature
is 35C or hotter. As the charts convey,

the number of very warm days that

are projected to occur each year grows
significantly. This is likely to occur both as
longer heat and more frequent heat waves,

and will have considerable implications for

human health in vulnerable populations,
agricultural productivity, energy and water
use, evaporation, and ecosystem health.

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Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

Projections of Precipitation Change

BASELINE
Dec, Jan, Feb

HADGEM

CSIRO Mk2

MPIECH-5

MRI232-A

Figure 6 illustrates the

projected patterns of
change in seasonal
precipitation using
four different GCM
patterns but the same
A1B emission scenario.
This demonstrates the
differences in projections
among global climate
models. Such differences
are especially apparent
for precipitation
which is modelled
with less confidence
than temperature.
The four models generally
project an overall drying
trend although the
CSIRO Mk2 projects an
increase in precipitation
in the autumn, while
the MPIECH-5 model
predicts a wetter
winter and spring.

BASELINE
Mar, Apr, May

HADGEM

CSIRO Mk2

MPIECH-5

MRI232-A

BASELINE
Jun, Jul, Aug

HADGEM

CSIRO Mk2

MPIECH-5

MRI232-A

BASELINE
Sep, Oct, Nov

HADGEM

CSIRO Mk2

MPIECH-5

MRI232-A

FIGURE 6

Projections of precipitation in 2050 from four Global Climate Models using A1B emissions

6 | USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education

Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

Baseline
FIGURE 7

HADGEM

CSIRO Mk2

MPIECH-5

MRI232-A

Projections of annual average precipitation for 2050

Precipitation projections were produced for six geographically representative townships in the Burnett Mary region: Bundaberg,
Maryborough and Gympie and the three inland townships of Monto, Gayndah and Kingaroy. These are illustrated in Figure 8.

Bundaberg

Maryborough

Gympie

Kingaroy

Gayndah

FIGURE 8

Monto

Projections of annual average precipitation for selected regional population centres

(HADGEM model, A1B emissions)
USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education | 7

Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

TABLE 4

Summary of precipitation changes from 1990 to 2100

Annual Average Precipitation (mm) Projections (HADGEM model A1B emissions)

Location

1990

2030

2050

2070

2100

Total decrease

Bundaberg

1070

1001

941

880

829

241mm (-23%)

Maryborough

1148

1055

973

894

822

326mm (-28%)

Gympie

1186

1072

972

876

788

398mm (-34%)

Kingaroy

791

713

644

578

517

274mm (-35%)

Gayndah

725

667

617

568

523

202mm (-28%)

Monto

702

659

618

580

546

156mm (-22%)

Projected Change in
Evaporation
It is expected that further rises in
temperature from global warming will
be associated with increased evaporation
and decreased soil moisture. This would
exacerbate the consequences of a drying
trend (PIR 2007, CSIRO 2001 and Karoly
et al 2003). Decreased soil moisture will
lead to an increased risk of crop failure
and demand for water. Furthermore, the
combination of the increased occurrence
of drought and lower soil moisture
will make farmers more vulnerable to
soil erosion, salinity and nutrient loss.
Increased evaporation will increase the
water demand of farmers, amplifying
competition between different water users.
Research suggests that increased
evaporation rates will occur throughout
all seasons, with a 0 - 10% increase by
2030 and a 0 - 32% increase by 2070
(CANA 2008). Projections made for
Queensland indicate that annual potential
evaporation will increase by up to 13%
by 2030, and up to 40% by 2070 over
large areas of the state (EPA 2007).

FIGURE 9

Projected sea level change

HadCM3 pattern of global sea level rise

Increased global temperatures cause sea level to rise by two mechanisms: thermal
expansion and mass exchange from melting glaciers and ice sheets. Figure 9, which shows
the Hadley CM3 model projections for global sea level rise, illustrates that the pattern
of change will not be uniform across the world primarily due to thermal expansion. This
model also indicates that sea levels along the coast of the Burnett Mary Region will be
higher than the global average. By 2050 local sea levels may be between 18 cm and 30cm
higher than today, while rises of between 41cm and 80cm may be anticipated by 2100.
Changes of this magnitude may have significant implications for coastal erosion and the
impacts from storm surge. These are discussed further in Section 4.

Increased evaporation levels also reduces

the amount of surface water runoff and
therefore water available for stream
flows. Reduced stream flows will greatly
impact upon river and estuarine systems,
ecosystem functions and native biodiversity.
Evapotranspiration is the combined loss of
water from the soil surface and through
the transpiration of plants (Hare, 2008).
Increased temperatures will increase
the amount of water lost from plants
through transpiration, thereby increasing
the demand for soil moisture. This will
have severe consequences for cropping
and ecosystems in a climate with less
rainfall and lower soil moisture levels.

Location

Hervey Bay
FIGURE 10

8 | USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education

Sea Level Rise (cm) Projections

(HadCM3model A1B emissions)
1990

2050

2100

baseline

17.4cm

41.3cm

Sea level rise for Hervey

Bay may be higher than
the global average due
to thermal expansion.

Hervey Bay Sea Level Rise Longitude 153 0 0 E Latitude 25 0 0 S

Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

4.0 Vulnerability,
Impacts and Adaptation
Adapting to climate change will present
considerable challenges given the extent of
projected changes and the dependence of
current human and natural systems to historic
climate patterns. One useful way forward is
to consider how natural and human systems
have coped with climate variability in the
past. This can shed light on vulnerabilities
related to current climate variability, including
thresholds beyond which adaptive measures
are extremely difficult to put in place and long
term harm occurs. Climate change adaptation,
then becomes a risk reduction strategy to
minimize the incremental risks associated
with the additional variability that is projected
under climate change.
It is important to consider adaptation as a
process that is iterative and responsive to
changing conditions. This implies the need
to monitor ongoing environmental change
and to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptive
responses. Policy and legislative structures
need to provide the means to build adaptation
and monitoring into the planning process, and
capacity for action has to be built at all levels
through broadly targeted public education and
specific training for key decision makers.

Vulnerability to Climate Change

Vulnerability can be defined as the degree
to which a system is susceptible to, or
unable to cope with, adverse effects of
climate change (IPCCb 2001). As seen in
the Figure 11, vulnerability is a function
of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive
capacity and can be experienced on a
regional, community, household and
individual level (Spickett et al. 2008).
In the context of climate change, exposure
refers to being either directly or indirectly
impacted, for example, a farm situated in
an area that will experience reduced rainfall
and increased temperatures. Sensitivity
would be a measure of the crops ability
to withstand these changes in climatic
conditions (Spickett et al., 2008).
Adaptive capacity describes the ability to
adjust to any potential impacts. Using the
previous farm example, adaptive capacity
may be the ability of the farmer to irrigate or
otherwise maintain productivity of existing
crops or to replace existing crops with those
more tolerant of dry and hot conditions.
The success of these measures to mitigate
the potential impacts would ultimately
determine the level of vulnerability.

Exposure

Sensitivity

Potential Impact

Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability
Source: Australian Greenhouse Office, 2005
FIGURE 11

Components of vulnerability

Examples of Sectoral
Vulnerability
Human Health
While coastal areas of the Burnett
Mary Region remain wetter than
western parts of the region, projected
decreases in precipitation would have
significant consequences for both
human and natural environments
and raise the possibilty that available
water may be insufficient to maintain
current populations, practices
and environmental services.
Temperatures of 35C and above
for prolonged periods could lead
to an increase in mortality, illness
and heat related stress within the
community and in particular with
the elderly, very young and the ill.
It is also reasonable to expect an
increase in the occurrence of vector
and water-borne diseases, such as
malaria and Ross River fever, under
higher temperatures (CANA 2002).
Asthma and hayfever related illness
will also likely increase due to drier
and dustier conditions (CANA 2002).

Infrastructure
Impacts on Infrastructure from climate
change may be gradual resulting
in additional maintenance and
replacement costs, or be catastrophic
from extreme events such as cyclones.
The significant areas for risk are the

coastal nodes where roads, urban and

peri urban areas are experiencing the
compounding factors of population
growth and climate change impacts.
In particular, Boonooroo Plains and
Susan River are projected to have
between 40 to 52% increase in
cadastre affected by storm surge by
2070, while Craignish may have up to
90% increase of road length affected
by storm surge in the same time
frame. Industrial areas in Bundaberg
are also at a higher risk due to storm
surge. Risk scenarios such as these can
help focus planning responses towards
developing adaptation strategies.

Water
The recent rapid population growth
experienced in many of Queenslands
coastal settlements combined with
prolonged drought, has exposed the
limitations and vulnerability of the
current water supply system. For
many regional areas these pressures
have led to extreme water shortages
and the rationing of supply. Water
supplies in the Burnett Mary will
continue to come under pressure
with substantial population growth
projected for the region. The ability
to meet the increasing demand in the
domestic, commercial and industrial
sectors may be hindered by decreasing
rainfall, reduced surface runoff
and higher levels of evaporation.

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Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

Coastal Regions
Higher atmospheric temperatures will
result in warmer ocean surface water
temperatures. This will lead to higher
sea levels and also has the potential to
increase the severity of tropical cyclones.
Higher sea level also adds to the size
of storm surges and will expose more
land area to the impacts of storm
surges increasing shoreline erosion.

Bushfires
Higher temperatures and reduced
rainfall and humidity could increase the
frequency and severity of bushfires in
the Burnett Mary Region, particularly
if the incidence of consecutive hot
days increases (Cribbes 2007).
Projections indicate that the number of
days over 35C per year will significantly
increase by the year 2100. This could
increase the likelihood of bushfires
occurring by increasing the period of
time that a bushfire could start. The
occurrence of dry lightning storms
is also highly probable due to the
significant decrease in precipitation and
therefore moisture in the landscape.
This papers future climate projections
would indicate Kingaroy, Gayndah and
Monto are particularly vulnerable to
bushfires due to the significant increases
in temperature and reductions in
precipitation seen in these areas. Other
areas such as Mundubbera, Mt Perry
and Eidsvold will also be at high risk.

Agriculture
Agriculture is an important sector
domestically and globally that is likely
to be affected directly and indirectly
by climate change (Gunasekera et al.
2007). Although increased levels of CO2
in the atmosphere will have a positive
fertilization effect on many types of
plants, this will be more than offset by the
negative impacts of higher temperatures
and reduced water availability.
Decreased precipitation and higher
temperatures will negatively impact
production within the agricultural
industry and will create significant
shifts in land-use and crop type (DCC
2008). Production types in areas that are
currently marginal, due to low rainfall
levels, will become especially vulnerable
to reductions in precipitation into the
future. Inland adaptive measures to
reduce vulnerability to climate change

could include better farm management

practices, diversification of crop varieties,
shifting cropping seasons and improved
farming technologies (Heyhoe et al. 2007).
Due to over-extraction of groundwater,
saltwater intrusion has occurred and is
a major concern in much of the lower
Burnett and in areas adjacent to the Elliott
and Burnett Rivers (QUT 2008). A decrease
in precipitation may increase the use of
groundwater for irrigation and exacerbate
the saltwater intrusion problem.
Agricultural areas in the Mary River
catchment receive higher precipitation
than those in the Burnett River
catchment, which are more dependant
on irrigation. Industries that depend
on irrigation to remain viable will
be vulnerable to decreased water
availability in this part of the region.
Although the relationship between
increased temperatures and increased
evaporation is relatively simple, the
impacts of the relationship can have far
reaching and both direct and indirect
consequences. Increased nutrient loads
are often associated with increased
evaporation and decreased rainfall. Excess
nutrient coupled with less streamflow
and possibly more stream bank erosion,
are contributing factors to catchment
degradation. Increased nutrient loads
often occur as farmers increase their
fertiliser use beyond existing levels to
compensate for decreasing soil nutrient
availability due to less precipitation and
more evaporation. Raising the awareness
of farmers as to this potential impact
of climate change may be required.
Support will be needed to assist producers
to reduce vulnerability and to plan for
sustainable agriculture practices using
applied climate change knowledge.
The climate change adaptation process
will be vital to the success of the
agricultural industry in future years.

Forestry
The Burnett Mary Region is the largest
producer of plantation forestry products
in Queensland. The long term growing
periods associated with forestry
exposes the industry to a higher level
of risk than other crops due to the
uncertainties of future climate change
and variability. A better understanding
of the implications of global warming
for plantation distribution in general
and tree species in particular, will

10 | USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education

support investment strategies and help

strengthen the integrity of the emerging
carbon based forestry industry. Modelling
undertaken for this project indicates that
considerable shifts in rainfall patterns
and temperatures may occur under some
scenarios which could have serious
planning and investment implications.
Proactive planning for forestry should look
towards identifying areas with reduced
risk to climate change and consider water
demands of new and current farm forests
within the context of projected decreases
in supply.

Impacts on Biodiversity
Terrestrial Biodiversity
Terrestrial biodiversity is highly vulnerable
to increases in temperature and reductions
in precipitation. It is predicted to cause
terrestrial animals to migrate from their
current habitats to cooler and moister
areas (CANA 2006). A trend towards
the south-east of the region would be
predicted by the scenarios in this paper.
It is anticipated, however, that
not all animals and plants will be
able to migrate successfully due to
geographical or human-made barriers,
unfavourable environmental parameters,
competition, rate of fecundity, slow
dispersal mechanisms and soil type
(IPCC 2001). This could result in the
extinction of some species, especially
those that are already threatened.
Species that are currently considered
threatened are at a high risk of becoming
locally extinct due to the increased
pressures placed on them by climate
change (WWF 2008). It is also expected
that many species that are not currently
threatened, are at risk of becoming
so. Declines in local populations of
important native species may create ideal
conditions for pest plants and animal
intrusion, applying further pressure to
already stressed native populations.
Many of the reasons why terrestrial
biodiversity is so vulnerable to climate
change result from the breakdown of
interdependent relationships between
species. For instance, increased
temperature and decreased precipitation
can lead to a change in the amount of
trees flowering in a season. For instance,
fewer flowers mean less insects feeding
on the flowers and less birds feeding on
the insects and so on. Its also thought
that some weed species could benefit

Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

from climate change, out-competing

endemic species and therefore further
decreasing biodiversity (Low 2007).
Also, an increase in the duration and
severity of the bushfire season due to
a decrease in moisture and an increase
in temperature will likely have a
significant impact on levels of biodiversity
within our forests (AGO 2007).

Aquatic Biodiversity and

Healthy Waterways
Further decreases in precipitation in the
Burnett Mary Region over the next century
will only exacerbate the current problems
faced in managing aquatic biodiversity. In
this way aquatic environments are highly
vulnerable to decreases in precipitation
and increases in temperature (EPA 2008).
Even greater expense and attention
to planning and management will be
necessary to repair and mitigate the
deterioration of our rivers and streams
in a future impacted by climate change.
To achieve optimal environmental
flows in the future with less available
water, is an area of high priority.

Waterways are vulnerable to aquatic

weeds, particularly Water Hyacinth,
Salvinia and Cabomba, which are
already causing major problems in the
region. Increased temperatures and
lower levels of water flow in streams
due to reduced rainfall may benefit
some exotic species, altering species
composition in favour of weed species.

Coastal and Marine Biodiversity

Table 5 is a matrix of marine biota and
their associated vulnerability ratings,
developed using the EPBC Act Protected
Matters Search Tool (DEWHA 2004) and
the IUCN Red List (2007). In a report
prepared for the BMRG, Kirkwood
and Hooper (2004) found that while
most coastal and marine species are
vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures,
such as development, fishing and
dredging, they are also susceptible to
climate change through habitat change
or loss. Due to the combined effects
of coastal erosion, sea-level rise and
temperature increase, the rate of species
mortality will become much higher.

Water quality in the Mary Catchment, for

instance, is impacted by contaminants
from land clearing, urban areas, mining,
agriculture, grazing and forestry. Indicators
of deteriorating water quality that may be
compounded by climate change include:
decline in fish species including the
endangered Mary River Cod and
Lungfish;
reductions in benthic macro
invertebrates (eg. aquatic worms,
snails, beetles and bugs);
increased occurrences of blue
green algae;
recorded levels of heavy metals
eg. arsenic, cyanide, aluminium and
selenium, which far exceed national
water quality standards;
presence of high nutrient levels and
increasing salinity levels in localised
groundwater, aquifers and water
tables;
weakening of a stream buffering
capacity (EPA 2001); and
reduced environmental flows as a
result of decreased rainfall and over
-allocation.

TABLE 5

Reef building corals are found in

coastal waters adjacent to the Burnett
Mary Region and play an important
role in ensuring the continued survival
of the reef and creating habitats for
many marine species. These corals
are vulnerable to many pressures that
influence their survival and distribution
including increased temperature
and sedimentation (AIMS 2007).
The success of marine turtle egg
incubation and the selection of
gender type is highly dependent
on the temperature of the sand, in
which the optimal temperature range
is between 25-33C (Hamann et al.
2007). In this way, future generations
of marine turtles are highly vulnerable
to increases in temperature.
Coastal and marine biodiversity is
vulnerable to reductions in environmental
flows due to the relationship between
freshwater flushes, salinity levels and
nutrient availability. Maintaining
the long-term average amount of
freshwater flowing into estuaries and
other coastal waters is important
for delivering nutrients and also in
maintaining lower salinity levels.

A matrix of marine biota commonly found in the Burnett

Mary region and their vulnerability status

Species Type

Common Name

Vulnerability

Fish

Green Sawfish

Endangered

Black Rock Cod

Vulnerable

Grey Nurse

Critically Endangered

Whale Shark*

Vulnerable

Great White

Vulnerable

Colcloughs Blind Shark

Vulnerable

Loggerhead Turtle

Endangered

Green Turtle*

Vulnerable

Leatherback Turtle

Vulnerable

Southern-Giant Petrel

Endangered

Northern Giant Petrel

Vulnerable

Kerndec Petrel

Vulnerable

Campbell Albatross

Vulnerable

Sharks

Reptiles

Birds

Mammals

Indo-pacific Humpbacked Dolphin Threatened

Dugong

Vulnerable

Humpback Whale

Vulnerable

* Populations are likely to occur within the area or are migratory

USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education | 11

Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

5.0 Conclusions
Climate change poses a significant problem to both human
and natural systems. Existing vulnerabilities that arise from
climate variability will be exacerbated as a result of changing
climatic conditions and additional demographic pressures. The
imposition of both of these stressors will create considerable
pressures on our ecosystem and our livelihoods. As this report
and the accompanying working papers illustrate, the impacts
will be far reaching. Higher temperatures, prolonged periods
of intense heat, increased evaporation rates, coastal erosion
and inundation, and changes in the timing, location, frequency
and volume of precipitation will put additional pressures on
already stressed systems. Agriculture, forestry, biodiversity,
conservation values, water management strategies, population
health and well being, infrastructure, tourism, and many
other aspects of the region will be negatively impacted.
Climate change is an exigent and complex problemthat is, it
is both complicated and dynamic. Our global track record at
managing such problems is not encouraging. Around the world
biodiversity has been decimated and natural systems degraded.
National and international governance regimes to manage the
global endowment of ecosystems and natural resources are
frequently weakened by short term interests at the expense of
long term sustainability. It would be myopic indeed, to allow
immediate action to be subverted by the inertia of the status
quo when the consequences of inaction grow exponentially.
Addressing the challenge of climate change requires the
implementation of effective mitigation measures from global
to local scales. However, due to historic and current emissions
trajectories, significant further change is unavoidable.
As such, a process of proactive and anticipatory adaptive
measures will be required. This should begin by identifying
existing vulnerabilities and then putting in place measures
to minimize the incremental risks that will occur as a result
of climate change. Policies need to be rigid enough to
provide a signal that will encourage appropriate adaptation,
while remaining flexible enough to respond to changing
circumstances and take advantage of emerging innovation.
The necessary response is not a shopping list of actions, but
rather a long term process of monitoring environmental and
human system changes, and building capacity to implement
appropriate adaptation measures across our entire society.

12 | USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education

Climatic
Climatic
Variability
Variability
and and
Climate
Climate
Change:
Change:
Scenarios
Scenarios
and and
Projections
Projections

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14 | USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education

Notes

USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education | 15

Notes

Notes

USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education | 17

The Burnett Mary Region