Uncertainty of discharge measurements

WMO Chapter 10
Uncertainty in discharge measurements
The Hydrometric Uncertainty Guidance (HUG)
and uncertainty of discharge measurements by
conventional current meter methods
R. Ranzi
DICATAM, University of Brescia, Italy
dicata.ing.unibs.it/ranzi
IAHR-WMO-IAHS Course on Stream gauging
18-12 September 2014 Thuyloi University - Hanoi - Vietnam

WMO

The uncertainty of a discharge

measurement is very important

Uncertainty (GUM): parameter that characterizes the dispersion

of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand
!
Comparison with other discharge measurements!
Defines the quality and reliability of measurements!
Provides a defense against legal challenges!
Error analysis is a long-standing practice!
Uncertainty is relatively new!
!
Uncertainty methods are now fairly uniform in most countries
and international standards have been defined!

<<This technical specification interprets the GUM ISO/IEC Guide 98Guide to the estimation of uncertainty in measurement to apply its
requirements to hydrometry in a practical way and, hopefully, in a
way accessible to engineers and those responsible of managing the
environmment >>

IAHR-WMO-IAHS Course on Stream gauging

18-12 September 2014 Hanoi Thuyloi University - Vietnam

Hydrometry in open channels: reference standards

from International Standard Organisation (ISO)
ISO 748:2007
Hydrometry -- Measurement of liquid flow in open channels using
current-meters or floats
Edition: 4 | Stage: 60.60 | TC 113/SC 1
ICS: 17.120.20
Document available as of: 2007-10-11
ISO 1088:2007
Hydrometry -- Velocity-area methods using current-meters -Collection and processing of data for determination of uncertainties in
flow measurement
Edition: 3 | Stage: 60.60 | TC 113/SC 5
ICS: 17.120.20
Document available as of: 2007-06-22

ISO 3455:2007
Hydrometry -- Calibration of current-meters in straight open tanks
Edition: 2 | Stage: 60.60 | TC 113/SC 5
ICS: 17.120.20
Document available as of: 2007-05-18
ISO 5168:2005
Measurement of fluid flow -- Procedures for the evaluation of
uncertainties
Edition: 2 | Stage: 90.20 | TC 30
ICS: 17.120.10
Document available as of: 2005-06-15

ISO 3354:2008
Measurement of clean water flow in closed conduits -- Velocity-area
method using current-meters in full conduits and under regular flow
conditions
Edition: 3 | Stage: 60.60 | TC 30/SC 5
ICS: 17.120.10
Document available as of: 2008-07-10
ISO 1100-2:1998
Measurement of liquid flow in open channels -- Part 2: Determination
of the stage-discharge relation
Edition: 2 | Stage: 90.92 | TC 113/SC 1
ICS: 17.120.20
Document available as of: 1998-05-07

WMO

UNCERTAINTY VERSUS ACCURACY!

Uncertainty and accuracy are usually, but erroneously

considered equals.!
!
Accuracy refers to agreement (or disagreement) between
measured discharge and true discharge. It is related to a
bias of measurements. True discharge is unknown, therefore
accuracy is unknown.!
!
Uncertainty, on the other hand, refers to a range of values
within which the measured value is estimated to lie. It is
related to the spread of measurements and to their precision!
!
A statistical confidence level is usually given for the
measured value of discharge.!

WMO

Accuracy, Precision and Bias

Hydrometric measurement uncertainty:

concepts and definitions (1)
Random errors are generally assumed to be
Gaussian (ISO 748; ISO/TS 25377-HUGHydrometry Uncertainty Guide; ISO 1088)
Standard absolute uncertainty of a measurand Y
(coverage factor k=1 and, if gaussian, 68%
confidence) is expressed as standard deviation and is
sometimes named S, or S(Y)
Extended absolute uncertainty (e.g. with 95%
confidence level with coverage factor k95=2) is
S95=k95S

(2)
Relative (percentage) standard uncertainty (WMO
manual refers mostly to standard uncertainty) of a
measurand Y (with coverage factor 1 and, if
gaussian, 68% confidence level) is expressed as
standard deviation, and is often named u or u(Y)
When it depends on several random variables is
called relative combined standard uncertainty uc
Extended relative uncertainty (e.g. with coverage
factor k95=2 and 95% confidence level) is U95=k95u
Relative uncertainty is absolute uncertainty divided
by the measurand, e.g. u=S/Y, or U95=S95/Y

HUG - GUM (1993) Methodology

WMO

Step 1
Step 2
Step 3

Step 4

!
!

Step 5

U = kuc(y)!

HUG - GUM (1993) - Methodology

1) Express mathematically the relationship between the measurand, Y,
and the input quantities, Xi, on which Y depends:

the input quantities may themselves depend on other quantities

f may be determined experimentally or evaluated numerically
Xi - s may be categorized as:
quantities whose values and uncertainties are directly determined in the current
measurements (single or repeated observations)
quantities whose values and uncertainties are brought into the measurement from
external sources (calibrations, manufacturer specs, etc)

2) Obtain an estimate of the measurand Y:

using input estimates, xi, from single or repeated observations

HUG - GUM (1993) Methodology

Step

3) Evaluate the standard uncertainty, u(xi) of each input

estimate xi
Each input estimate and its associated standard uncertainty are
obtained from a distribution of possible values of the input quantity
(probability distribution may be frequency based, that is, based on
a series of observations) or it may be a priori distribution.
Type A evaluation of standard uncertainty is obtained from the
statistical analysis of a series of observations determined from the
current measurements
Type B evaluations are founded on other means (prior information,
expert knowledge, engineering judgement)

HUG GUM (1993) Methodology

Type A evaluation of standard uncertainty, u(xi), is based on the
standard deviation of a set of n repeated measurements

where

The standard uncertainty of a sets of measurements for the input

estimate x is

HUG-GUM (1993) Methodology

Type B

evaluation is based on scientific judgment using previous

measurement data, experience with or general knowledge of
the behavior and properties of relevant materials and
instruments, manufacturer s specifications, data provided in
calibration and other certificates, and uncertainties assigned to
reference data taken from handbooks.

Identify the max and min values of x to determine

and

Determine the standard deviation for the input from

x

u (x ) =

d (x) p(x)dx

with selected or declared expected dispersion of the deviation, d, and associated

probability distribution, p(x) Based on prior information

HUG - GUM (1993) Methodology

The most common

probability distributions , p(x),
associated with the
hydrometric uncertainties are:
rectangular, normal,
triangular, and bimodal

Distribution Standard uncertainty of a measured value xi

Rectangular u( xi ) = ai 3
ai = estimated semi-range of the uncertainty
Normal
u ( xi ) = U k
U = expanded uncertainty; k = coverage factor
Triangular
u( xi ) = ai 6
Bimodal

u( xi ) = ai

HUG-GUM (1993) Methodology

4) Determine the combined standard uncertainty, uc(y), for the result
4.a) without correlated quantities in the functional relationship

(4a)

partial derivatives are called sensitivity coefficients

sensitivity coefficients are evaluated at Xi = xi

4.b) with correlated quantities in the functional relationship

HUG - GUM (1993) Methodology

5) Determine the expanded uncertainty

U = kuc ( y )
Expanded uncertainty (the interval y-U to y+U ) encompasses the values that could
be reasonably attributed to the measurand Y
k is the coverage factor depending on
the targeted level of confidence (a large fraction p of the probability
distribution characterized by the result; p specified by user)
the effective degrees of freedom of uc(y) number of independent
observations used to determine a statistical property
the result of a measurement is expressed as

GUM (1993) Methodology

The coverage factor, k, provides the uncertainty interval with a level of
confidence p:
with tp from the t- (Student s) distribution for the effective degree of freedom, eff
For many practical situations, eff is significant (>10). Then,
K 95 = 2 produces an interval with a level of confidence of approximately 95%
k 99= 3 produces an interval with a level of confidence of approximately 99 %
In general, eff is obtained from the Welch-Satterthwaite formula as
eff

u c4 ( y )
= N 4
ui ( y )

i =1

with i determined differently for Type A or B evaluation

The expanded uncertainty for any of the above cases is

WMO

A Conventional Discharge Measurement

Consists of:!

1. Measurement of depth at a number of verticals in the

cross section.!
2. Measurement of width between verticals.!
3. Measurement of velocity by current meter at a limited
number of points in each vertical.!
4. A discharge estimate is computed from these
measurements.!
5. The error propagation equation applied to the Velocityarea method provides the uncertainty equation of
single discharge measurements!

Example:Velocity-area method
Y=Q=f(X1, X2, X3)=f(bi, Di, Vi)
estimate y = Q = " !Q = "Vi Ai = "Vi Di bi (1)
Where the velocity measures V are performed by using current meters
following the previously mentioned criteria
S indicates the absolute uncertainty of the measure Y (m, m/s, m3/s, s,
),
u indicates the relative uncertainty u=S/Y (-) or (%)
In order to measure quantities such as the discharge Q in (1), they are
obtained by multiplying the single measures (e.g., V, D, b)

Absolute standard uncertainty S of a discharge

measure Q using current meters (irregular
section, independent measures of bi, Di, Vi)
S

2
Q

# "Q & # "Q & # "Q &

= ! S = !%
Sbi ( + %
Sdi ( + %
SVi ( =
' $ "Di ' $ "Vi '
i
i $ "bi

eq.4a

2
Qi

= ! (Vi Di Sbi ) + (Vi bi Sdi ) + ( bi Di SVi ) =

i

#
Sbi & #
Sdi & #
SVi &
= !%Vi Di bi ( + %Vi bi Di ( + % bi DiVi ( =
bi ' $
Di ' $
Vi '
i $
2

= ! (Vi Di bi ubi ) + (Vi bi Di udi ) + ( bi DiVi uVi )

i

Relative standard uncertainty uQ

2

2
q
2

S
2
uQ =
=
Q

!(V D b u ) + (V b D u ) + (b D V u )
i

i i bi

i i

i di

"
%
$ !Vi Di bi '
# i
&

i i Vi

!(Vi Di bi ) (u2bi + u2di + uV2i )

=

"
%
$ !Vi Di bi '
# i
&

uQ =

!(Vi Di bi ) (u2bi + u2di + uV2i )

i

"
%
$ !Vi Di bi '
# i
&

As the measure of mean velocity

V in each vertical depends on
number of measurement points,
duration (exposure) of the
measure, calibration of the current
meter, we have.

Relative standard error of a discharge measure

using current meters (irregular section)
"N
%
2
2
2
2
2
2
$ ![(bi DiVi ) (ub + ud + ue + u p + uc )i ] '
' + u2
uq = $ i=1
m
N
$
'
2
[
(b
D
V
)]
! i ii
$
'
#
&
i=1
errors are relative standard errors, for which recommendations are in the
WMO manual chapter 10 and UNI EN ISO 748 tables
ub = error regarding the width measure,
ud = error regarding the depth measure,
ue = error regarding the current meter measurement duration,
up = error regarding the measurement point number,
uc = error regarding the point velocity measure,
um = error regarding the number of subsections/verticals
N = subsection number.

ub = width measurement error

Standard uncertainty errors attributable to individual width
measurement errors in discharge measurements
(WMO I-10.4).

ue = time of exposure-related error

Standard uncertainty errors attributable to time of exposure of single velocity
(WMO I-10.4).

um = number of verticals-related error

Standard uncertainty errors
(WMO I-10.4).

up = number of points in the vertical-related error

Standard uncertainty errors
(WMO I-10.4).

uc = current meter rating-related error

Standard uncertainty errors
(WMO I-10.4).

ud = depth measurement error

for d<0.3 m Xd3%
for d>0.3 m Xd1%
Table 4.1.-Standard uncertainty errors attributable to individual depth
measurement errors in discharge measurements
(WMO I-10.4).

Continuous measure uncertainty

After having defined the steady-state water depth-discharge curve Q(h)
which, for a given flow depth h, provides the expected value of the
corresponding flow discharge Q, we want to estimate the uncertainty
associated to this calculation. The uncertainty of the estimate of a
discharge trough a cross section whose water depth-discharge curve has
been assessed Q(h), is substantially affected by two error sources (v.
UNI EN ISO 748,2003; UNI CEN ISO/TS 25377, 2008; Taylor, 2000,
WMO, 1980): a) the uncertainty due to the spread between the
theoretical depth-discharge curve and the single flow measures, b) the
water depth measurement error h.

In order to assess the error due to the disagreement of the discharge

measures with respect to the adopted curve, for instance of the type
Qc(h)=Q1hn which best fit them, WMO (1980), Herschy (1999), suggest
to follow the procedure described below, which is based on the principle
that a reliable uncertainty estimate of discharge measures arises from
their repetition, even under different water depth conditions. Calculating
the sample standard, Se, of the logarithms of N discharge measure logQo,i
(i=1,..N), with respect to the corresponding theoretical values, logQc,i,
allows to define the external standard uncertainty as:
N

Se =

2
(ln
Q

ln
Q
)
o ,i
c ,i
i =1

N 2

The relative uncertainty, with confidence level 1-, of the

estimation of each discharge value Qc(h) by means of the depthdischarge curve, called internal uncertainty, is calculated as follows
(WMO, 1980 p. 30 in Volume II):

S mr (h) = t N 2, / 2 S e

1
+
N

[ln h ln h]
[ln h ln h]
2

i =1

In which tN-2,/2 is the t di Student variable having N-2 degrees of

freedom and for the confidence level 1-. For example, when the
measure number is N=11, assuming a confidence level of 95% the
variable t9,0.025 amounts to 2.262 and the consequent uncertainties
are listed in the following table.

Tabella
4.3 Misure
di livello
idrometrico, h,discharge
portate osservate
con la scala di
o, portate calcolate
Hydrometric
level
h, observed
Qo,Qcomputed
discharge
1.7
deflusso Qc=19.8651.7
h . Smr rappresenta lincertezza percentuale della stima delle portate per livello
Qc=19.865 h , Smr standard
error of
the estimated Qc(h)
idrometrico
assegnato.
h
0.277
0.380
0.550
0.670
0.700
0.810
0.880
0.970
1.010
1.100
1.230

Qo
2.166
3.880
7.230
10.007
10.790
13.832
15.854
18.903
20.219
23.452
28.240

Qc
2.240
3.835
7.190
10.056
10.833
13.884
15.985
18.863
20.204
23.359
28.244

lnQo
0.7729
1.3558
1.9782
2.3033
2.3786
2.6270
2.7634
2.9393
3.0066
3.1550
3.3407

lnQc
0.8066
1.3441
1.9726
2.3081
2.3826
2.6307
2.7716
2.9372
3.0059
3.1510
3.3409
2=
Se=

2
0.001137
0.000139
3.14E-05
2.36E-05
1.59E-05
1.41E-05
6.76E-05
4.59E-06
5.59E-07
1.58E-05
2.08E-08
0.001449
0.01269

ln(h)
-1.28374
-0.96758
-0.59784
-0.40048
-0.35667
-0.21072
-0.12783
-0.03046
0.00995
0.09531
0.207014
media=
-0.333

(ln(h)-m(ln(h)))
0.90389
0.40269
0.07014
0.00455
0.00056
0.01495
0.04210
0.09153
0.11762
0.18345
0.29162
=2.12311

Smr
2.1%
1.5%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
1.4%

Example: Mincio at Monzambano, Italy

With ADCP profilers as flow-trackers the principles of the

estimation of uncertainties are similar, but not exacly the same

To calculate the relative uncertainty of the average discharges Qm,

observed during the measure period and obtained by integrating K
discharge data Qk (k=1,..,K), measured every tk seconds, reference
papers recommend to apply (Herschy, 1999 p.363):
K

"
uQm =

2
2
(Smr,k
+ n 2 uh,k
) Qk !tk

k=1
K

" Q !t
k

k=1

In which uh represents the relative uncertainty of the water depth

measures

Deflussi flow
medi annui
1972 - 2008 - Mincio a Monzambano
Mean annual
(mm)
1600

1400

1200

Deflussi medi (mm)

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

Year

Anno

1995

2000

2005

2010

Standard reporting of
daily, monthly,
annual runoff
in
Hydrological
Yearbooks
(without uncertainty)

Updated reporting with uncertainty (proposal)

GIORNO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

Gennaio
29,71,7
29,91,7
29,91,7
29,91,7
29,91,7
29,91,7
29,91,7
29,91,7
29,91,7
26,01,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
25,01,5
25,31,5
25,11,5
25,01,5

Febbraio
24,91,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
25,41,5
25,01,5
24,71,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,81,5
24,71,5
24,21,5
24,21,5
24,21,5
24,51,5
24,61,5

PORTATE MEDIE GIORNALIERE incertezza assoluta standard in m3/s

Marzo
Aprile
Maggio
Giugno
Luglio
Agosto
Settembre
25,21,6
64,92,5
60,12,3
75,53,0
78,23,2 137,88,7
78,03,1
24,91,5
64,82,5
60,82,3
75,53,0
80,83,3 137,78,7
78,03,1
24,91,5
64,02,4
60,62,3
75,43,0
81,03,3 138,18,7
78,03,1
24,91,5
64,32,4
56,62,1
74,92,9
81,03,3 137,78,7
78,03,1
24,91,5
67,72,6
50,41,9
74,92,9
80,23,3 138,18,7
77,63,0
24,91,5
75,93,1
50,92,0
74,92,9
79,23,2 137,98,7
77,43,0
24,91,5
75,93,1
51,32,0
74,92,9
93,94,3 138,98,8
77,93,0
24,91,5
76,13,1
50,51,9
74,92,9 100,84,8 131,07,9 103,05,2
24,91,5
80,03,4
50,01,9
75,53,0 100,84,8 122,16,9 119,76,7
24,91,5
49,71,9
75,53,0 100,74,8 121,86,9 119,06,6
86,03,8
24,91,5
49,51,9
75,53,0 112,26,0 121,46,9
88,34,2
86,03,8
24,91,5
54,12,1
75,63,0 138,38,8 117,16,4
60,22,2
86,03,8
25,01,5
60,12,3
76,13,0 143,39,3 110,85,8
60,22,2
86,03,8
25,01,5
60,02,3
76,13,0 142,89,3 110,65,8
61,62,2
86,03,8
25,01,5
60,12,3
76,13,0 123,97,2 109,95,7
62,32,2
86,03,8
38,71,8
60,12,3
76,13,0 110,15,7 102,35,0
61,22,2
86,03,8
45,92,0
60,42,3
76,13,0 110,65,8 99,44,7
60,72,2
86,03,8
52,22,2
60,12,3
76,13,0 110,85,8 85,73,6
60,72,2
86,03,8
53,63,3
60,12,3
75,73,0 110,75,8 79,23,1
60,72,2
86,03,8
63,64,1
85,33,8
59,62,2
75,53,0 110,15,7 79,23,1
51,51,9
63,14,1
85,33,8
59,62,2
75,93,0 110,35,7 79,23,1
45,11,8
63,14,1
68,32,7
59,92,2
76,13,0 109,95,7 79,23,1
44,41,8
63,14,1
59,62,2
62,52,4
44,41,8
76,73,1 109,35,6 79,83,2
62,64,0
60,02,3
62,92,4
44,41,8
76,73,1 109,65,7 79,83,2
62,44,0
60,12,3
62,72,4
44,41,8
76,73,1 108,65,6 79,83,2
54,83,3
60,12,3
61,62,3
76,33,0 108,65,6 79,83,2
44,81,8
65,72,7
60,12,3
60,52,2
76,13,0 108,65,6 79,83,2
44,81,8
63,82,6
60,32,3
61,52,3
76,23,0 107,65,5 79,53,2
44,81,8
63,82,4
60,12,3
61,22,2
76,13,0 107,95,5 79,23,1
57,02,1
65,72,5
60,12,3
67,32,5
74,92,9 107,95,5 79,23,1
64,92,3
125,27,3 78,93,1
66,22,5
72,22,8

Q massima
(m3/s)
Q media
(m3/s)
Q minima
(m3/s)
Deflusso
(mm)

ELEMENTI CARATTERISTICI PER L'ANNO 1972

Marzo
Aprile
Maggio
Giugno
Luglio
Agosto

ANNO

Gennaio

Febbraio

143,39,3

29,91,7

25,41,5

66,22,5

86,03,8

72,22,8

76,73,1

143,39,3

55,92,4

26,41,5

24,71,5

42,71,9

73,83,0

58,62,2

75,73,0

24,21,5

24,81,5

24,21,5

24,91,5

59,62,2

49,51,9

752,132,6

30,01,8

26,41,6

48,62,2

81,33,3

66,82,5

Ottobre
64,92,3
65,02,3
64,92,3
44,51,8
36,91,7
36,61,7
35,41,6
34,61,6
34,31,6
33,91,6
33,91,6
33,91,6
33,91,6
33,91,6
33,91,6
27,51,6
26,81,6
26,61,6
27,11,6
27,11,6
26,91,6
26,91,6
26,91,6
26,71,6
27,41,6
31,91,6
46,11,9
27,41,6
27,41,6
27,41,6
27,51,6

Novembre
27,61,6
27,61,6
27,61,6
27,61,6
27,61,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,71,6
27,61,6
27,61,6
27,61,6
27,61,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,71,6
27,61,6
27,51,6
27,51,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6

Dicembre
27,91,6
28,01,6
28,01,6
27,91,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6
27,81,6

Settem.

Ottobre

Novem.

Dicem.

138,98,8

119,76,7

65,02,3

27,81,6

28,01,6

106,55,5

104,2104,2

66,42,7

34,81,7

27,71,6

27,81,6

74,92,9

78,23,2

78,93,1

44,41,8

26,61,6

27,51,6

27,81,6

83,53,3

121,46,3

118,86,1

73,32,9

39,61,9

30,61,7

31,71,8

The objective of this course is to

have Hydrological Yearbooks
published including this
information, worldwide
I thank you for your attention and
your efforts in this direction
IAHR-WMO-IAHS Course on Stream gauging
18-12 September 2014 Hanoi Thuyloi University - Vietnam