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Initiating Coverage
Current price Target price
Global Vectra Helicorp (GLOVEC) Rs 156 Rs 214
Potential upside Time Frame
37% 12 months
Propelled by the oil boom …
OUTPERFORMER
Global Vectra Helicorp is India’s largest private sector helicopter company
that is focussed on servicing the oil E&P (exploration and production) Analysts’ Name
sector. It is rapidly increasing its fleet size to capitalise on the growing Siddhartha Khemka
demand for helicopter services. We initiate coverage on the company with siddhartha.khemka@icicidirect.com
an OUTPERFORMER rating, and a 12-month target price of Rs 214. Ember Pereira
ember.pereira@icicidirect.com
Increase in offshore E&P activities to drive demand
Demand for offshore helicopter services is expected to rise on the back of Sales & EPS trend
increased E&P activities in the oil and gas sector. Out of the 165 oil blocks 250 25
awarded during the six NELP (National Exploration Licensing Policy) rounds, 200 20
102 were offshore blocks. 15
Rs crore
150
10
Rs
100
Largest dedicated offshore helicopter service provider 5
50 0
Global Vectra has the largest dedicated fleet of 22 helicopters servicing the
0 -5
offshore E&P sector in India. It is the biggest player with a 42% market share FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
and would benefit from the increased interest in oil and gas exploration Net Sales EPS (RHS)
activities.
Stock metrics
Boosting fleet size to meet demand Promoters holding 75.0%
The company currently has a fleet of 20 Bell 412 helicopters and two Market Cap Rs 226.8 crore
Eurocopter EC 155 B1 helicopters. Two more Bell 412 helicopters would be 52 Week H/L 327 / 132
joining in March 2008. It has placed orders for three EC 155 and two Bell 412 Sensex 19,261
helicopters, which are scheduled to be delivered during H2FY09, taking the Average volume 77,281
total fleet to 29. The enhanced fleet size will further strengthen its
established position.
Comparative return metrics
Valuations Stock return 3M 6M 12M
At the current price of Rs 156, the stock is trading at 10.14x its FY08E EPS of Global Vectra -14% -32% -25%
Rs 15.38 and 8.02x its FY09E EPS of Rs 19.46. On an EV/EBIDTA basis, the Deccan Aviation 98% 112% 114%
stock is available at 6.74x FY08E earnings and 6.54x FY09E earnings. We
believe it offers good upside from these levels. We value the stock at 11x its
FY09E EPS, to arrive at a 12-month target price of Rs 214 and rate the stock
an OUTPERFORMER. Our target price provides an upside potential of 37%.
250
% Growth 33.3% 72.3% 26.6% 225 Target Price
P/E (x) 23.29 17.48 10.14 8.02 200
175
Price/Book (x) 0.86 0.70 0.55 0.41 150
125 Absolute Buy
EV/EBIDTA (x) 8.07 6.97 6.74 6.54 100
NPM (%) 8.38 8.37 11.15 11.83 75
50
RoNW (%) 39.84 15.97 21.58 21.45
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
(%)
production activities. 40
Total Revenues
Rs 149.37 crore
55% 45%
Fixed Monthly charges Flying hourly charges
45%
EBIDTA margins
8.4%
Net profit margins
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INVESTMENT RATIONALE
In a bid to boost crude oil production in the country and induce private players
to invest in the capital-intensive oil exploration, the government formulated the
new exploration & licensing policy (NELP).
So far, six rounds of bidding were conducted, and the government has already
awarded 165 exploration blocks. Out of these 165 blocks, 102 were offshore
blocks. The seventh round (NELP VII) announced recently is likely to offer
another 28 offshore blocks. According to the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural
Gas, ~ 85% of India’s oil reserves are located in offshore blocks. This
increased offshore E&P activities will boost demand for transporting crew and
cargo to these blocks, thereby resulting in extra demand for helicopter
services.
Currently, four major players dominate the helicopter industry in India. Apart
With a fleet of 22 helicopters
from providing offshore helicopter support services, they are also involved in Global Vectra is the largest
onshore operations like heli-tourism, religious tourism, airport-to-airport dedicated offshore helicopter
connections, VIP transportation, private charter services, and corporate company in India
charters.
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With oil prices touching all time highs, interest in oil and gas exploration is
expected to remain buoyant. The NELP programme is further expected to
boost demand for offshore charter services. Global Vectra is the biggest player
with a 45% market share. We believe its vast experience and huge scale of
operations give it an edge over competitors.
The company currently has a fleet of 20 Bell 412 helicopters and two
Eurocopter EC 155 B1 helicopters. Two more Bell 412 helicopters would be
joining in March 2008. It has placed orders for three EC 155 and two Bell 412
helicopters, which are scheduled to be delivered during H2FY09, taking the
total fleet to 29.
35
29
30
24
25
18 Fleet size expected to
20
increase from 18 in FY07 to 29
15 by FY09E
11
10
6
5
0
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08E
FY09E
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Client stickiness
The company provides services to its clients under long-term contracts. These
contracts range from one to three years with renewal options. The company, Long-term nature of contract
which started with just one client eight years ago, has five clients today. Most increases the client stickiness
of its initial customers continue using its services. Companies involved in
offshore E&P activities have to use helicopter services extensively for
transportation of crew and cargo.
The contracts comprises of two components: (1) Fixed monthly charge, and
(2) hourly flying charges. The hourly flying charges depend on the number of
hours flown. Revenues earned from these charges are independent of the
number of seats utilised. The business model provides the company with
assured revenues every month and also long-term security.
British Gas
18%
ONGC
54%
Reliance Ind.
14%
Source: Company, ICICIdirect Research
Global Vectra, which was the first to foray into offshore helicopter services, With more than 8 years of
enjoys the first-mover advantage. The industry is tightly regulated. Companies experience, Global Vectra has
operating in this sector require considerable expertise to qualify. Further, there a competitive edge
is also a considerable time period involved for gaining entry into the industry.
These factors act as barriers for competitors who want to start operations.
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In-house maintenance capabilities reduce downtime
Global Vectra has a state-of-the-art engineering facility, which maintains India’s
largest Bell 412 fleet & Eurocopter EC 155 B1 helicopter. The company is
certified to undertake the 3,000-hour and five-year checks on Bell 412
helicopters, which entails the complete overhaul of the helicopter and its
components. This in-house capability enables the company to reduce the
downtime for repairs on helicopters, as they do not have to be taken to outside
agencies, leading to enhanced serviceability of the fleet and additional flying
hours due to quicker turnaround time.
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RISK AND CONCERNS
The shortage of skilled personnel has been a prime cause of concern for
Global Vectra. In the last four months, about 16-17 pilots and a few engineers
have quit. This impacted the company’s operations.
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Financials
Average revenue per helicopter per month (Rs crore) 0.67 0.66
Source: ICICIdirect Research
100
50
0
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08E
FY09E
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Rising cost to impact operating profit margins
Expenditure on aviation fuel and manpower accounts for 53% of operational
cost. Crude prices have been rising, and there is a shortage of pilots in the
aviation industry. Due to these cost pressure, EBIDTA margins are likely to
decline to 41% in FY08E from a healthy margin of 51% in FY06. However, in
FY09E with an increased fleet size, the company will benefit from economies
of scale due to which we expect margins to improve to 43%.
70 41%
rising cost pressures
60 40%
50
35%
40
45.4 66.7 78.7 98.0
30 30%
FY06
FY07
FY08E
FY09E
15 12.5
6%
10 7.1 8.0
4%
5 2%
0.7 0.3 0.4
0 0%
-0.4
-5 -2%
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08E
FY09E
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VALUATIONS
The stock price fell from a high of about Rs 230 in July 2007 to around Rs 140
levels, well below its IPO allotment price of Rs 185, during October 2006. The
main trigger for the fall was the departure of pilots and engineers during the
last 4-5 months. The exodus hit its operations. However, we believe the
company has weathered the crisis and operations will proceed smoothly
henceforth.
At the current price of Rs 156, the stock is trading at 10.14x its FY08E EPS of
Rs 15.38 and 8.02x its FY09E EPS of Rs 19.46. On an EV/EBIDTA basis, the
stock is available at 6.74x FY08E earnings and 6.54x FY09E earnings.
We believe that the stock is attractively valued considering the huge demand
from the E&P sector for helicopter services. Its aggressive fleet expansion and
high entry barriers will also be positives for the company. Globally, helicopter service
providers are trading at 19-
Globally, helicopter service providers like Bristow Group (Texas, US) and CHC 20x their FY07 EPS
Helicopter Corp (Canada) are trading at 19-20x their FY07 EPS. However,
Global Vectra is very small in comparison to their operations and fleet size.
We value the stock at 11x its FY09E EPS, to arrive at a 12 months target price
of Rs 214 and rate the stock an OUTPERFORMER. Our target price provides an
upside potential of 37%.
Exhibit 12: Global Peer comparison (US$ million) (latest financial year)
EV /
Market P/E EBIDTA RoE RoCE
Company Cap Revenue EBITDA PAT (x) (x) (%) (%)
Bristow Group 1310 891 162 63 21.0 11.3 11.4 6.4
CHC Helicopter
corporation 1439 1137 182 46 19.0 7.9 8.9 2.9
PHI INC 489 414 46 8 57.1 13.0 NA NA
Global Vectra 55 38 9 3 17.5 6.9 15.9 15.7
Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect Research
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FINANCIAL SUMMARY
Profit and Loss Account (Rs Crore)
Year to March 31 FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
24% CAGR in revenue over
Revenues 89.53 149.37 193.08 230.33
FY07-09E
Employee cost 11.07 22.00 31.80 37.64
Operating cost (Fuel, spares & maintenance) 23.46 38.97 54.01 61.96
Selling and administrative cost 6.82 7.22 9.65 11.29
Other expenses 2.80 14.52 18.90 21.43
Total expenditure 44.15 82.71 114.36 132.31
EBITDA 45.39 66.66 78.72 98.02 High other income on account
of foreign exchange on ECB and
Other income 0.34 0.42 15.10 7.99
other loans
Depreciation 12.11 15.71 19.30 24.79
Interest 22.95 32.49 42.02 40.08
PBT 10.66 18.87 32.51 41.15
Taxation 3.16 6.37 10.98 13.90
PAT 7.50 12.50 21.53 27.25 48% CAGR in net profit over
Operating margins (%) 50.69 44.62 40.77 42.56 FY07-09E
Net margins (%) 8.38 8.37 11.15 11.83
Shares O/S (crore) 1.12 1.40 1.40 1.40
EPS (Rs) 6.70 8.93 15.38 19.46
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Cash Flow Statement (Rs Crore)
Year to March 31 FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
Opening Cash Balance 3.46 3.10 1.29 0.83
Profit after Tax 7.09 12.50 21.53 27.25
Misc. Expenditure w/off 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dividend Paid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Depreciation 12.11 15.71 19.30 24.79
Provision for deferred tax 2.19 6.08 7.30 9.24
Cash Flow before WC Changes 21.74 34.29 48.12 61.28
Net Increase in Current Liabilities 18.49 20.83 15.41 23.84
Net Increase in Current Assets 25.69 34.54 16.71 15.19
Cash Flow after WC Changes 14.53 20.58 46.82 69.93
Purchase of Fixed Assets (188.18) (122.24) (113.23) (180.00)
Increase / (Decrease) in Loan Funds 170.08 52.93 65.95 111.09 Increase in loan funds on
Increase / (Decrease) in Equity Capital 3.20 46.92 0.00 0.00 account of capex
Net Change in Cash (0.37) (1.81) (0.46) 1.03
Closing Cash Balance 3.10 1.29 0.83 1.85
Ratio Analysis
Year to March 31 FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
EPS (Rs) 6.70 8.93 15.38 19.46
Book Value (Rs) 180.44 222.61 285.09 383.91
Enterprise Value (Rs Crore) 366.09 464.51 530.92 640.99
EV/Sales (x) 4.09 3.11 2.75 2.78
EV/EBIDTA (x) 8.07 6.97 6.74 6.54
Market Cap to sales (x) 1.95 1.46 1.13 0.95
Price to Book Value (x) 0.86 0.70 0.55 0.41
Operating Margin (%) 50.69 44.62 40.77 42.56 Decline in operating margins
Net Profit Margin (%) 8.38 8.37 11.15 11.83 due to high cost, while net
margins remain steady
RONW (%) 39.84 15.97 21.58 21.45
ROCE (%) 15.76 15.77 18.04 14.73
Debt/ Equity (x) 10.33 3.16 3.14 3.34
Current Ratio 1.49 1.52 1.41 1.22
Debtors Turnover Ratio 3.94 3.71 3.71 3.71
Fixed Assets Turnover Ratio 0.54 0.51 0.48 0.41
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RATING RATIONALE
ICICIdirect endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect assigns ratings to its
stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as
Outperformer, Performer, Hold, and Underperformer. The performance horizon is 2 years unless specified and
the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
research@icicidirect.com
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