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STATISTICS 21

Fall 2012

S. M. Stoyanov
MIDTERM 1
Score:[

/60]

Please show ALL WORK AND REASONING for ALL the problems.You may NOT use a programmable
calculator for this quiz. Do NOT ROUND the numbers in the middle of a problem. In general, unless asked
to do otherwise, round answers to 2 decimal places.

Page Score =

/10

1. Below, on the left, we have a table giving the distribution of weight (in kilograms) for adult women in the US (from
the NHANES survey of 2009-2010). The class intervals include the right endpoint, but not the left. On the right we
have the histogram for the same data.

0.015

Density (% per kg)

0.010
0.005

Percent
21
25
20
22
11
1

0.000

Weight (kg)
30-60
60-70
70-80
80-100
100-150
150-200

0.020

0.025

Weights of US adult women


NHANES survey 2009-2010

50

100

150

200

Weight (kg)

(a) Estimate the Interquartile range for the weight of adult US women.

(6 points)

2. For each of the following examples, indicate whether they are observational studies or controlled experiments. Briefly
explain your reasoning.
( 2 points each)
(a) Among a group of disabled women aged 65 and older who were tracked for several years, those who had a vitamin
B12 deficiency were twice as likely to suffer severe depression as those who did not.

(b) Oregon has an experimental boot camp program to rehabilitate prisoners before their release. Prisoners volunteer
for the program, which lasts several months. Investigators compared the recidivism rate (percentage who are
back in prison within 3 years) for prisoners who completed the program with those who dropped out.

Page Score =

/15

3. For the NHANES 2009-2010 data, the histogram for the heights of adult US women is approximately normal. The
25th percentile for the heights is about 155 cm, and the median for height is about 160 cm. What would be the
90th percentile for height?
(5 points)

4. A researcher at a Spanish university is studying the changes in the relationship of BMI, waist circumference, and weight,
with the use of health care services by older adults. A member of the US Congress is interested and begins reading it,
but is puzzled by the metric system. He asks an assistant to translate all the units into ones that are used in America
(pounds, feet etc.).
(a) If the correlation of waist circumference and weight is one of the cited statistics in the paper, then could we
compute the new correlation between these two quantities in inches and pounds, rather than in centimeters and
kilograms? How?
(2 points)

(b) What is the correlation between weight in pounds, and weight in kilograms? Explain.

(2 points)

5. About 1.65 million high-school students took the SATs in 2005. One education researcher(A) used the regression line
for predicting Math SAT score from the Critical Reading score. Another researcher (B) believes that verbal ability
and mathematical ability have not much of a relationship, and so prefers to use the average Math SAT score as the
prediction. It is known that the correlation between the Math SAT score and Critical Reading score is positive.
(a) Which researcher will have the smaller RMS error from their method?

(2 points)

(b) If it turns out that the RMS errors from both methods are about the same, what does this say about the
correlation?
(2 points)

(c) How would the correlation change, if we used the Critical Reading score as the response variable, and the Math
SAT score as the explanatory variable instead?
(2 points)

Page Score =

/15

6. On the left, below, is a scatterplot showing the waist circumference (in cm) of the adult US women surveyed in
NHANES 2009-2010 versus their BMI (in kilogram per meters square. The scatter plot is roughly football shaped, and
both variables approximately follow a normal curve. On the right is a residual plot. A statistical analysis was made of
these data to predict BMI from the waist circumference, using the regression line, with the following results:
average waist circumference 97 cm,
2
average BMI 29.5 kg/m ,

SD 16 cm
2
SD 7.5 kg/m ,

Residual plot for Regression of


Female BMI on Female Waist circumference

20

20
10
-10

Residuals from regression

60
50
40
30

BMI (kg/m^2)

70

80

30

Female BMI vs Female Weight


NHANES 2009-2010

r 92%.

60

80

100

120

140

160

20

Waist circumference (cm)

30

40

50

Waist circumference (cm)

(a) Do you think linear regression is appropriate? Explain.

(b) For about 1/3 of the data, the prediction of their BMI was off by more than

(2 points)

kg/m

(2 points)

(c) What BMI would you predict for a woman whose waist measures 101 cm around?

(d) This prediction is likely to be off by

(3 points)

kg/m or so.

(2 points)

(e) About what percentage of women have a waist of at least 101 cm?

(3 points)

(f) Of the women who have a waist of about 101 cm, what percentage have a BMI over 30 kg/m ?

(3 points)

Page Score =

/14

7. A study is made of people who stutter. Each subject is asked to read 2 passages of equal length, and the number of
times they stutter while reading each passage is recorded. The researchers noticed that people who stuttered many
times on the first passage tended to stutter less on the second. They concluded that they must have been more nervous
at first, and then got relaxed for the second. Do you think their conclusion is valid? Explain.
(2 points)

8. Mark the following as True or False by circling the appropriate response. Explain your answer.

(2 points each)

(a) If you multiply each entry on a list by 10, that multiplies the average by 10.

(b) If you add 10 to each entry on a list, that leaves the median unchanged.

(c) If you add 10 to each entry on a list, that adds 10 to the average.

(d) If you multiply each number of the list by -1, that does nothing to the sign of the median.

(e) If you multiply each number of the list by -1, that does not change the sign of the SD.

9. Smokers are quite reviled these days, especially in places like the Bay Area. Can we also claim that smoking leads to
bad grades? According to a University of Minnesota study, smoking and bad academic grades are positively correlated.
Can we conclude that smoking leads to bad grades? Explain.
(2 points)

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/6

10. Data from the 1995 Population Survey shows that the fraction of foreign-born population for each state and the fraction
of the population that are high-income (annual family income over $50,000 in 1994), computed for each of the 50 states,
are positively correlated. Does this mean that foreign-born residents are likely to have higher incomes than native-born
residents?

11. In a certain large statistics course, the professor uses the students midterm scores to predict their final scores via the
regression method. Suppose that in a certain semester, the average for both scores was about 70, with an SD of 20,
and that there was a strong positive association between these two quantities. Then the predicted final score turns out
of the class.
(2 points)
to be within 20 points of the actual score for
Choose an alternative from the options below, and explain your reasoning.
more than 68%

less than 68%

about 68%

12. Among applicants to one law school, the average LSAT score was about 169, the SD was about 9, and the highest score
was 178. Did the LSAT scores follow the normal curve? Explain.
(2 points)