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Global Market
Forecast
2015-2034
2014
2034
% change
2014-2034
RPK (trillions)
6.2
15.2
145%
+1,227 aircraft
GMF 2015 vs. GMF 2014
17,354
35,749
106%
31,781
1,633
2,687
65%
804
Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats)
32,585
Market Value of
$4.9
8,108 twin-aisle aircraft
trillion
22,900
New Deliveries
20,000
16,000
32,600
12,000
8,100
8,000
4,000
1,600
% units
% value
Single-aisle
Twin-aisle
70%
25%
5%
45%
43%
12%
May 2015
Passenger Traffic
+5.8%
% (year-over-year)
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Q2JQ3
Q4JQ1
Q2JQ3
Q4JQ1
Q2J
JQ1MQ2
M JQ3SQ4
N JQ1
MQ2
M JQ3
S Q4
N JQ1
MQ2
M JQ3
S Q4
N JQ1
M Q2
M JQ3
S Q4
N JQ1
M Q2
M JQ3
S Q4
N JQ1
MM
SN
MM
SN
MM
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: IHS Economics, OAG, Airbus GMF2015
History
10%
8%
Forecast
Emerging
economies*
6%
4%
2%
Advanced
economies**
0%
-2%
-4%
1982
1986
1990
* 54 emerging economies
** 32 advanced economies
Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus GMF2015
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
Emerging
economies will
continue to
lead the pack
Emerging/
Developing
China
India
Middle East
Asia
Africa
CIS
Latin America
Eastern Europe
Advanced
Western Europe
North America
Japan
6.3
billion
people
2014
1
billion
people
2014
+5.8 %
+3.8 %
Forecast
5,000
3,671
4,000
Emerging countries
2,703
3,000
2,000
4,721
1,792
3,977
2,936
2,001
1,000
0
1,120
North America
247
425
259
444
263
471
264
480
2004
2014
2024
2034
6,400
7,200
8,000
8,600
World Population
28%
37%
46%
55%
% of world population
Europe
* Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2014 prices
100%
Emerging
markets to
represent
90%
80%
70%
Advanced
Economies
60%
world private
consumption by
2034, up from
50%
40%
31% today
30%
20%
10%
43% of the
23%
31%
37%
43%
Emerging
Economies
0%
2004
2014
2024
2034
Propensity to
travel
100.00
10.00
25%
1.00
of the population of
the emerging
countries took a
trip a year in
North America
1.63 trips per capita
Europe
1.21 trips per capita
0.10
PRC
0.30 trips per capita
2014
India
0.07 trips per capita
0.01
0.00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Propensity to
travel
100.00
10.00
74%
1.00
Europe
2.24 trips per capita
PRC
1.09 trips per capita
0.10
of the population of
the emerging
countries will take
a trip a year in
North America
2.16 trips per capita
India
0.30 trips per capita
2034
0.01
0.00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oil Crisis
Gulf Crisis
Asian
Crisis
9/11 SARS
Financial
Crisis
World traffic
85%
4
3
2
1
0
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
Source: ICAO, Airbus
16
14
12
10
x2
8
6
2014-2034
4.6%
2
0
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
20-year
growth
29%
5.7%
36%
Europe
25%
3.6%
21%
North America
25%
2.5%
17%
Middle East
9%
6.7%
13%
5%
5.2%
6%
4%
4.9%
4%
3%
5.3%
3%
0
Asia-Pacific
1,000
2014 traffic
Latin America
CIS
Africa
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2015-2034 traffic
20-year
world annual
traffic growth
4.6%
% of 2034
world RPK
x 3.8
x 1.4
50%
x 1.7
x 1.7
x 3.7
x 2.4
x 5.8
x 3.4
x 4.1
x 2.2
x 2.4
x 2.8
x 2.9
x 3.0
x 3.8
x 2.5
x 2.4
x 4.1
x 2.5
x 3.1
200
400
600
Asia Pacific
leading growth
2014
2034
800
Load factors
85%
80%
200
75%
+46%
150
+17
percentage
points
70%
65%
100
60%
50
55%
0
50%
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010 2014
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010 2014
-33%
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
160
IHS Energy
Forecast
Oil prices
140
120
100
80
Medium-term boost
for global GDP
60
40
20
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: IHS Energy, Oxford Economics
70% of traffic growth until 2034 will be coming from existing network
1.5
Growth from
new routes
1.2
0.9
Growth from
existing network
0.6
0.3
0.0
2014
AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
2034
47
Aviation
Mega-cities
0.9M
90%+
Daily Passengers:
long-haul traffic to/
from/via MegaCities
of long-haul traffic
on routes
to/from/via
47 cities
22%
of World
GDP
in 2014
91
Aviation
Mega-cities
2.3M
95%+
Daily Passengers:
Long-Haul traffic
to/ from/via MegaCities
of long-haul traffic
on routes
to/from/via
91 cities
35%
of World
GDP
in 2034
39 out of the
47 Aviation
Mega Cities are
scheduleconstrained
today
*Aviation Mega-Cities International
Airports
47
North America
+25%
Europe
+60%
Aviation
Mega-cities
CIS
+300%
Asia Pacific
Middle East
Latin America
Africa
+90%
+320%
+160%
+290%
Percentage of
premium
between AMC
2014
16%
14%
12%
14%
10%
8%
14%
6%
10%
8%
4%
compared to 11%
average
international longhaul
2%
0%
Aviation Mega-City to Aviation
Mega-City
Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers, Long-haul, flight
distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
40,000
35,000
30,000
19,500
Growth
25,000
20,000
32,600
New
aircraft
19,000
15,000
13,100
10,000
Replacement
5,000
5,900
Stay in service
0
Beginning 2015
2034
Source: Airbus
Note: Passenger aircraft 100 seats,
Freighter aircraft 10 tonnes
Summary
Strong and resilient passenger traffic growth
Oil price down but trend uncertain
o Short-term good for airline profitability
Single-aisle represent 70% of demand in units, but wide-bodies represent 55% of value
VLA demand largely concentrated on Aviation Mega-cities
but network efficiencies will drive proliferation of new VLA destinations
AIRBUS (Airbus S.A.S., Airbus Operations S.A.S., Airbus Operations GmbH, Airbus Operations LDT, Airbus Opeartions SL, Airbus China LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Final Assembly Company LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Delivery Centre LTD). All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary
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