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7. Data analysis
2013
Lecture 12
Burial History
Sand Fairway
68 Ma 6 0 Ma
NonMarine
Nearshore
Coastal
Plain
4 8 Ma 3 8 Ma 2 9 Ma
1 8 Ma 1 0 Ma
0 Ma
Slope
Basin
Trap Analysis
Synclinal Spill Point
Controls HC Level
Cross-Section View
Low
Relevance:
Demonstrate some of the scientific methods
we use to determine where to drill
Outline
1. Time-to-Depth Conversion
2. Identify Sand Fairways
3. Identify Traps
4. Geophysical Evidence
Direct HC Indicators (DHIs)
5. Basin Modeling
Back-strip stratigraphy (geohistory)
Forward model (simulation)
L12 Data Analysis
1. Time-to-Depth Conversion
Horizons & Faults
in units of 2-way time
(milliseconds)
Well Data
calibration
Velocity Data
derived from seismic processing
Time-to-Depth
Conversion
Horizons & Faults
in units of depth
(meters or feet)
L12 Data Analysis
Outline
1. Time-to-Depth Conversion
2. Identify Sand Fairways
3. Identify Traps
4. Geophysical Evidence
Direct HC Indicators (DHIs)
5. Basin Modeling
Back-strip stratigraphy (geohistory)
Forward model (simulation)
L12 Data Analysis
Interval
Attributes
Well Data
calibration
Seismic
Attribute Maps
EODs
environments
of deposition
Sand Fairways
L12 Data Analysis
Nearshore
Slope
Basin
NonMarine
10
Coastal10
20Plain30
40
50
20
NearSlope
shore
30
10
20
30
40
40
50
Basin
L12 Data Analysis
Outline
1. Time-to-Depth Conversion
2. Identify Sand Fairways
3. Identify Traps
4. Geophysical Evidence
Direct HC Indicators (DHIs)
5. Basin Modeling
Back-strip stratigraphy (geohistory)
Forward model (simulation)
L12 Data Analysis
3. Identify Traps
Use depth (or time) structure maps, with fault zones, to look for
places where significant accumulations of HC might be trapped:
Structural traps
e.g., anticlines, high-side fault blocks, low-side roll-overs
Stratigraphic traps
e.g., sub-unconformity traps, sand pinch-outs
Low
If HC charge is great
A
A
Low
Low
If HC charge is limited
A
A
Low
HC Migrating to Trap
Controls HC Level
Leak at Fault
Controls HC Level
A
Synclinal Leak Point
Controls HC Level
Leak Point
Leak Point
Stratigraphy
Structure + Stratigraphy
Cross Section
Outline
1. Time-to-Depth Conversion
2. Identify Sand Fairways
3. Identify Traps
4. Geophysical Evidence
Direct HC Indicators (DHIs)
5. Basin Modeling
Back-strip stratigraphy (geohistory)
Forward model (simulation)
L12 Data Analysis
4
5
DEPTH x 103 FEET
IMPEDANCE x 103
10
15
20
Looking for
shallow gas
OIL
SAND
25
SHALE
6
7
8
9
10
Looking for
deep oil
Change in amplitude
along the reflector
Low
High Amplitude
Thicker Reservoir
Fluid contact
event
Thinner Reservoir
Fluid contact
event
What is AVO?
AVO = Amplitude vs. Offset
Receiver
Layer N
Layer N +1
Change in
Impedance
Why Do We Care?
Reflection amplitude varies with as a function of the
physical properties above and below the interface
Rock / lithologic properties
Properties of the fluids in the pores
Examining variations in amplitude with angle (or offset)
may help us unravel lithology and fluid effects,
especially at the top of a reservoir
Top of Reservoir
Base of Reservoir
Impedance
Lo
Hi
Zero
Offset
Near
Offset
Full
Offset
Far
Offset
L12 Data Analysis
Angle/Offset
AVO Crossplot
Negative Intercept
Negative Slope
Angle/Offset
Time
Amplitude
Water
Oil
Gas
Seismic Example
Alpha
Fluid Contact?
Gas over Oil?
Fluid Contact?
Oil over Water?
Outline
1. Time-to-Depth Conversion
2. Identify Sand Fairways
3. Identify Traps
4. Geophysical Evidence
Direct HC Indicators (DHIs)
5. Basin Modeling
Back-strip stratigraphy (geohistory)
Forward model (simulation)
L12 Data Analysis
Basin Modeling
Back-strip the
Present-day
Strata to
Unravel
the Basins
History
0 Ma
Model Rock
& Fluid
Properties
Forward
through Time
18 Ma
36 Ma
42 Ma
L12 Data Analysis
Basin Modeling
We start with the present-day stratigraphy
Then we back-strip the interpreted sequences to
get information of basin formation and fill
For some basins, we can deduce a heat flow history
from the subsidence history (exercise)
Trap A
Trap B
Trap C
Spillage of
Excess Gas
Traps with
unlimited
charge
Migration Path
Of Spilled Oil
Gas separator
Source
Generating HCs
L12 Data Analysis
Intro to Exercise
Goal: To map the extent of the A1 gas-filled reservoir
W
E
A1 Gas
Sand
Inline 840
Figure 1
L12 Data Analysis
Water Sand
Traces are
clipped
Inline 840
Figure 1
L12 Data Analysis
Extent of Gas
Inline 840
Figure 1
A Prospect
A prospect is a location and depth that has been identified
as a good place to drill for oil and/or gas
Alpha
Beta
Relevance:
Demonstrate some the tasks that go into determining
the size of the prize and the risk associated with a
prospect
Outline
4. Assessment
5. Risk
Outline
1. Define prospect elements
2. Estimating trap volume
3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk
Plumbing To Connect
the Container to the Kitchen
A Kitchen
Where Organic
Material Is
Cooked
Correctly
Placed
Wells
A Container
From Which
Oil & Gas
Can Be
Produced
A Real HC System
Draupne Shale
organic rich
serves as a source rock
Heather Shale
Sognefjord Shale
both organic poor
Oil
Spill
Point
Facies
Change
Fault
Leak
Point
Brent Sandstone
acts as a reservoir
oil & gas from the Draupne, gas from coals in the Brent
HC Migration
Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha
Beta
Sea Water
Oil
Overburden
Oil
Migration
Source
Basement
Oil
Generation
18 Ma
Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha
Beta
Sea Water
Overburden
Oil
Migration
Seal
Reservoir
Oil
Migration
Source
Basement
Oil
Generation
10 Ma
Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha
Beta
Sea Water
Overburden
Oil
Migration
Seal
Reservoir
Source
Basement
Oil
Generation
Gas
Generation
Present
Most-Likely Scenario
Beta
Alpha
Oil
Oil
18 Ma
Map of the Reservoir Unit
Most-Likely Scenario
Beta
Alpha
Oil
Oil
10 Ma
Map of the Reservoir Unit
Most-Likely Scenario
Beta
Alpha
Gas
Oil
Oil
Present
Map of the Reservoir Unit
Explorations Task
Identify
Opportunities
Acquire
Seismic Data
Interpret
Seismic Data
Capture
Prime Areas
Drill
Wildcats
Process
Seismic Data
Failure
Assess
Prospects
1.
2.
3.
4.
Volume
HC Type
Assessment
Risk
Success
Confirmation
Well
Uneconomic Success
Drop
Area
To
EMD
C
Outline
1. Define prospect elements
2. Estimating trap volumes
3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk
Exercise
We will do some quick estimates using a
series of simplifying assumptions
Outline
1. Define prospect elements
2. Estimating trap volumes
3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk
DHI Analysis
AVO Analysis
HC Systems Analysis
Oil or Gas???
Quantitative
Qualitative
Gas
Oil
Brine
20%
Porosity
30%
Porosity
20% Porosity
Offset
30% Porosity
Offset
0.4
10%
Slope
0.2
20%
0.0
30%
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3 -0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Intercept
0.2
0.3
Questions???
Fluid Contact?
Gas over Oil?
Fluid Contact?
Oil over Water?
Outline
1. Define prospect elements
2. Estimating trap volumes
3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk
Types of Assessments
Once a lead has been high-graded into a prospect,
we have to assess its potential value
Deterministic Assessment
One value for each parameter
One final number, e.g., 200 MBO
Probabilistic Assessment
A range of values for each parameter
A range of outcomes, e.g. 200 50 MBO
Alpha
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Alpha
Gas Only
20% Chance of Occurrence
Scenario 4
Alpha
Oil Only
30% Chance of Occurrence
Alpha
Oil
Gas
Oil-Equivalent
112 MBO
95 GCF
Scenario 2
6 GCF = 1 MBO
0 MBO
314 GCF
Gas Only
Scenario 3
121 MOEB
52 MOEB
Uneconomic
192 MBO
0 GCF
192 MOEB
0 MBO
0 GCF
0 MOEB
Oil Only
Scenario 4
Low Gas Saturation
Uneconomic
Probabilistic Assessment
The Goal is to Get A Number and a Range of
Possible Outcomes
We Input a Range of Values for Each
Assessment Parameter
usually minimum, most-likely, maximum
Area
Min
ML
Max
12
20
27
Thickness
Net:Gross
Porosity
HC Sat.
FVF
Recovery
100
80%
Economic Minimum
Excedance Probability
Unrisked Results
60%
40%
20%
0%
100
200
300
400
Outline
5. Risk
25% Risk
Source
Maturation
HC
Migration
Reservoir
Presence
Trap
Quality
Reservoir
Quality
Seal
Adequacy
Biodegradation
- - - - 1.0
Trap Quality
- - - - 1.0
chance of success
Seal Adequacy
- - - - 0.8
(COS)
Source Quality
- - - - 1.0
Source Maturation
- - - - 1.0
HC Migration
- - - - 1.0
- - - - 1.0
0.72
Highest
Risk
Some Risk
100
Gas Only
72 % COS
Economic Minimum
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
100
58 % Chance of
Finding More
Than the
Economic
Minimum
Oil Only
200
300
400
500
Exercise
Summary
Weve Gone from Identifying an Opportunity
in the Bonanza Basin to Drilling a Wildcat at
the Alpha Prospect
Prospect Analysis
Our geological and geophysical analysis helps us identify and
characterize prospects in terms of these critical elements
Starting Point
Your staff has been hard at work 'maturing' each prospect.
Their work for each prospect is summarized by:
An estimated drilling cost
A prediction of the most-likely amount of oil (in millions
of barrels, MBO)
The likely range of possible oil volumes (high-side and
low-side cases)
An estimate of the chance of success for the prospect.
These data are provided on tables. If you only drill the low
risk prospects, the probability of your reaching your goal
is extremely low - but not zero.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Drilling a Well
Drilling a well is a three-step process:
Low-Side
Case
High-Side
Case
Chance of
Success
Discovery if
Total on 2
Dice
Prospect
Number
Prospect Name
Drilling Cost
($M)
Mouse
0.2
0.1
0.4
97%
3 - 12
Canary
0.4
0.2
0.8
97%
3 - 12
Kitten
0.6
0.3
1.2
92%
4 - 12
Terrier
0.9
0.45
1.8
92%
4 - 12
Goat
10
1.8
0.9
3.6
72%
5 - 12
Ram
15
2.3
1.15
4.6
72%
5 - 12
Kangaroo
18
4.4
2.2
8.8
58%
6 - 12
Bull
20
4.5
18
58%
6 - 12
Stallion
27
17
8.5
34
58%
6 - 12
10
Zebra
32
21
10.5
42
42%
7 - 12
11
Lion
38
50
25
100
42%
7 - 12
12
Bear
42
90
45
180
42%
8 - 12
13
Elk
49
125
62.5
250
28%
8 - 12
14
Moose
55
290
145
580
28%
9 - 12
15
Hippo
80
450
225
900
17%
10 - 12
16
Gorilla
100
600
300
1200
17%
10 - 12
17
Elephant
120
840
420
1680
8%
11 - 12
18
Whale
130
1180
590
2360
8%
11 - 12
19
T-Rex
140
1900
950
3800
3%
12
20
Brontosaurus
160
4500
2250
9000
3%
12