Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Europe
27/09/01
Unsuitability between :
- Supply
- Demand
Prices fluctuation
Fluctuation limited either via :
- the demand market (limits : prices of competitive
commodities)
- the supply market (limits : production variable cost and
marginal producer overall cost)
At the end
Consumer
Price
GPL
GO
Marginal
producer cost
HFO
Coal
0
Variable costs
Two markets :
- Spot market : daily exchanges possible
- Contracts market
10
11
p/therm
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
9
Q 4
3
94
Q
1
9
Q 5
3
95
Q
1
9
Q 6
3
96
Q
1
97
Q
3
97
Q
1
9
Q 8
3
98
Q
1
9
Q 9
3
99
Q
1
00
Q
3
00
10.00
Gas int
HFO avg
12
Coal avg
Spot prices
Winter level :
- Price very close to HFO at burner type of dual fuel
(Gas/HFO) industrial customer
Summer level :
Price equal to the maximum of :
- coal
- winter price - storage costs
13
p per therm
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
IPE datas
14
04/11/2000
04/10/2000
04/09/2000
04/08/2000
04/07/2000
04/06/2000
04/05/2000
04/04/2000
04/03/2000
04/02/2000
10.00
04/01/2000
15.00
p/th
25
23
20
20
19
15
12
10
8
10
16
16
13
13
17
24
21
Summer gas
price p/th
Average p/th
Winter gas price
p/th
10
5
0
10
15
20
25
Brent $/Bbl
15
Conclusion
In an open market without "Supply price control", gas
price set by "Demand price control" itself resulting from
fuel switching capabilities
With a large capability of switching gas/HFO and
gas/coal, gas price will stay between coal price and HFO
price.
A decrease in fuel switching capability will lead to a
more tensed market with higher volatility. Loss of short
term switching flexibility may lead to very high prices
16
17
Russia
47.7 Tcm
LNG
Caspian Sea
5.8 Tcm
North Africa
6.6 Tcm
18
19
Electricity Directive
Minimum opening
Minimum threshold
Gas Directive
Minimum opening
Minimum threshold
28%
20 Gwh/year
33%
9 Gwh/year
20
33%
5 Mcm/year
21
Conclusion
A market driven by oil products prices and long-term
contracts with high costs of transportation
But pressure from European Commission for
deregulation
So, what could be the future ?
22
23
V. Conclusion
24
1035 TWh
385 TWh
238 Bcm
104 Bcm
NWE
CE
SWE
470 TWh
112 TWh
45 Bcm
13 Bcm
25
871 TWh
244 TWh
195 Bcm
57 Bcm
Existing Hub
UK
Gas
Possible Hubs
Gaspipes
Gaspipes in project
Bacton
Neth.
Gas
Emden
LNG
Zeebrugge
LNG in project
Russian
Gas
Baumgarten
GSO
Sou
th-W
est
Southern Europe Hub
Algerian
Gas
Algerian
Gas
26
Netherlands
13%
Onshore transportation
Storage
Marketing
Power Generation
Others
5%
Norway
43%
Offshore
transportation
Great-Britain
40%
Production
Netherlands
23%
Others
11%
Norway
26%
11 years of production
27
TOTALFINAELF Strategy :
Significant Positions in European Gas and Power
Humber Power (1260 MW)
:
40 % + tolling (510 MW)
Interconnector 10 %
(Capacity : 20 Bcm/y)
Bcm/y)
Marketshare)
Marketshare)
Bruxelles
Gaz de
Strasbourg 25 %
45 %
(Sales : 9.4 Bcm)
Bcm)
CFM
Gaz de Bordeaux 16 %
Storages 100 %
(Izaute Lussagnet)
GSO
70 %
(Sales : 3.7 Bcm)
Bcm)
Pipe project
Cepsa/Sonatrach
TGE/TM/MI- Natural Gas Pricing in West Europe - 27/09/01
28