Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Alternatives
Jim Harding
Harding Consulting
Carnegie/NPEC Conference
February 2009
Washington, DC
Asian Experience
Plant
MWe
COD
Onagawa 3
825
Jan 2002
3.1 Billion
2409
3332
Genkai 3
1180
Feb 1994
4 Billion
2643
3656
Genkai 4
1180
Jul 1997
3.2 Billion
1960
2711
KK 3
1000
Jan 1993
3.2 Billion
2615
3617
KK 4
1000
Jan 1994
2.2 Billion
2609
3608
KK 6
1356
Jan 1996
4.2 Billion
2290
3167
KK 7
1356
Jan 1997
3.7 Billion
1957
2707
Y 5 (SK)
1000
Jan 2004
1700
2352
Y 6 (SK)
1000
Jan 2005
1656
2290
2354
3257
Average
Cost data from MIT 2003 study. Average does not include South Korean units, owing to
labor rates. Real escalation from 2002-2007 at 4 percent/year. Avg is $2950/kW w/SK.
520
1,350
500
1,300
Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index
480
1,250
460
1,200
440
1,150
420
1,100
400
1,050
380
1,000
360
950
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
3.8%/yr
Ratio vs.
History
60.3%/yr
15.9x
Copper
3.3%/yr
69.2%/yr
21x
Cement
2.7%/yr
11.6%/yr
4.3x
Iron/Steel
1.2%/yr
19.6%/yr
16.3x
Heavy
construction
2.2%/yr
10.5%/yr
4.8x
Esc 03-07
4% Real
8% Real
14% Real
Med overnight
$4050/kW
$5400/kW
$7100/kW
$9050/kW
High overnight
$4540/kW
$6050/kW
$8000/kW $10150/kW
Med overnight
High overnight
Future overnight cost estimates are in 2007 dollars, and are based on FP&Ls recent Turkey Point 6/7
estimate. Electricity costs are levelized lifecycle costs, with interest and operating costs.
Recent Estimates
Moodys - $5000-7500/kW
Basis not stated; operating and fuel costs not estimated
Capital Cost
($/kW)
Wind
Nuclear
3000-4000
1000
???
17002500
5000
Capital charges
(cents/kWh)
6.3
2.1
9.0
7.1-13
10.4
Delivered Fuel
(cents/kW)
4.0
8.8
4.0
1.7
O&M
(cents/kWh)
2.2
1.1
2.2
2.9
Cents/kWh
12.5
12.2
15.2
8-14
15.0
These are Standard & Poors estimates, not mine. Essentially all the bottom line
numbers have doubled in three years!
Recent worldwide annual growth in PV production capacity is +50% per year. Note
that PV industry projections for 2005-2010 were nearly flat.
Source: Prometheus Institute and Photon Magazine numbers for worldwide capacity and
projects underway. Lets go back to slide 12 off the chart! Plus 60%/yr annual average
growth rate; much faster in recent years
Note: if new resource options like nuclear cost 12-16+ cents/kWh, then
Seattle and Fargo look like Boston!
15
Ibid.
Supplemental Slides
Coal
Imminent carbon controls, rail constraints
Rapidly rising international coal prices
Gas
High price and volatility; hedges and other protections thin
At $13/million BTU, only $75.40/bbl of oil equivalent
US DOE, Solar Energy Industry Forecast: Perspective on US Solar Market Trajectory, May
2008.
US DOE, Solar Energy Industry Forecast: Perspective on US Solar Market Trajectory, May
2008.
500.0
Index
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
1950.00
1960.00
1970.00
1980.00
Year
1990.00
2000.00
2010.00
7,000
Estimate on the Basis of 40 Years of Mean Lifetime (32 years for Germany)
(in MWe and Number of Units)
Number of
reactors
2,000
2049
2047
2045
2043
2041
2039
2037
2035
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
-3,000
-3
-8,000
-8
-13,000
-13
Capacity connection / retrieval
-18,000
-23,000
-28,000
-18
-23
Net decennial balance:
- 47,069 MWe
- 80 reactors
-33,000
- 171,323 MWe
- 197 reactors
- 100,570 MWe
- 106 reactors
- 38,212 MWe
- 44 reactors
-28
-33
Source: IAEA PRIS
GW 2030
GW/yr
% world
electricity
Net
additions
Outside
OECD
and
Russia
IEA Reference
(WEO)
415
2 GW
10%
45
100
IEA Advanced
519
6.5 GW
15%
149
50
US EIA
481
4.7 GW
12%
110
72
480
4.7 GW
NA
110
100
GW per year is calculated by assuming no existing worldwide capacity is retired before 2030
MIT
$30/kg
$100/SWU
$275/kg
$400/kg
$1000/kg
This analysis
$300/kg
$140-340/SWU
$275/kg
$400/kg
$1500-2000/kg
0.5 cents/kWh
1.6-2 cents/kWh
2 cents/kWh
3.4-4.3 cents/kWh
4x
2-3.5x
A c h ie v a b le P o t e n t ia l ( a M W )
100
2005 (aMW/yr)
90
2007 (aMW/yr)
80
2009 (aMW/yr)
70
20011 (aMW/yr)
60
20013 (aMW/yr)
50
40
30
20
10
0
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Savings (aM W )
140
Year
34%
32%
30%
28%
26%
24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2006 Q 4
2006 Q 3
2006 Q 2
2006 Q 1
2005 Q 4
2005 Q 3
2005 Q 2
2005 Q 1
2004 Q 4
2004 Q 3
2004 Q 2
2004 Q 1
2003 Q 4
2003 Q 3
2003 Q 2
2003 Q 1
2002 Q 4
2002 Q 3
2002 Q 2
2002 Q 1
2001 Q 4
2001 Q 3
2001 Q 2
2001 Q 1
2000 Q 4
Sources: NW CFL sales 2000-2006: PECI and Fluid Market Strategies sales data reports; and NEEA estimate of an additional 1.5 million WAL-MART CFLs sold
region-wide in 2006 (See Appendix A [Section 9.1.1] of MPER3 for more detail); U.S. and NW population estimates 2000-2006: U.S. Census 2004; U.S. market shares
and non-CFL sales 2000-2005: Itron California Lamp Report (2006); U.S. market share 2006: D&R International (personal communication).
Low Case
High Case
Capital Costs
6.0
7.9-12.7
Fuel
1.6
2.0
Fixed O&M
1.3
2.5
Variable O&M
0.5
0.5
Total (Levelized
Cents/kWh)
9.4
12.9-17.7
Low case is Keystone, without South Korean units. High cases cover
Keystone through Puget capital cost estimates. First year 1.7 times higher.