Builders

Outlook

www.elpasobuilders.com

But first, they have to move out of

their parents homes and into a place
of their own, said NAHB Assistant
Vice President for Survey Research
Rose Quint. In 2015, about 15
percent of adults ages 25-34 lived
with a parent, about 3 percent more
than the highest share between 1983
and 2007 12 percent. That
translates into 1.3 million people who
normally "would be out there, forming
their own households, demanding
their own units," either as buyers or
renters, she said.
Quint had anticipated that new
mortgage programs and looser
mortgage insurance requirements
unveiled a year ago would have led
to an increase in consumers buying
homes for the first time. But a look at
the size of the typical new singlefamily home in 2015 found the
opposite: home sizes grew to an
average of 2,721 square feet, the
highest yet, and an indication that the
new-home market continues to be
dominated by move-up buyers, rather
than first-time buyers.
"Before we see that expected
pullback in square footage and price,
were going to have to see a
significant return of the first-time
buyer," who is more likely to buy a
smaller home at a lower price point,
Quint said.
This year, home buyers of all ages
say they are looking for homes with
separate laundry rooms, energy-star
appliances and windows, exterior
lighting and a patio.
What they dont want are rooms
with cork flooring, elevators, pet
washing stations, expensive outdoor
kitchens and fireplaces, and two-story
entryways and family rooms. And
their countertops should be granite,
but never laminate, according to a
Fall 2015 survey of potential buyers.
In terms of house type, buyers want
a detached, single-family home: 65
percent of all buyers and 68 percent
of millennials expressed that

preference. That number rises to 72

percent with Gen X (born between
1965 and 1979) but falls somewhat to
55 percent with those born before
1945, Quint said.
Better Homes and Gardens Brand
Executive Editor Jill Waage echoed
Quints findings on preferences for
well-equipped kitchens and casual,
comfortable living spaces especially
outdoor living rooms, where
millennials want to entertain their
families and friends.
Whats important about this
generation is their comfort with
technology. Millennials "are leading
the way on this," Waage said. "They
are the first generation to walk into
homeownership with a smartphone in
their hands."
These millennials want to use
technology to make entertainment
choices easier, monitor the comings
and goings of packages, repairmen
and their children, and improve their
health and well-being. When it comes
to product choices, "theyve read the
ratings, comments and reviews, and
they know whats worth it," and have
probably created a Google alert so
they know when its on sale, she said.
Their home improvement
preferences center on home
organization and workspaces, as the
separation between working in an
office and telecommuting continues to
blur.
"This generation is searching out
ideas, following bloggers," and
creating Pinterest boards with their
preferences, Waage said. "Theyve
already curated their dream home
online, saving it on their boards so
they can [be ready] when the day
finally comes."
The survey results are also
important to home builders in the 55+
market, said David Peskin, president
of Reverse Mortgage Funding LLC
(RMF), which sponsored the NAHB
study on consumer preferences. The
boomer generation is currently
experiencing a transition to their next

National, State & Local Building Industry News

2016: Issue 1

Millennials to
Shape Housing
Preferences
Once They Start Buying

The millennial generation is poised to make a

significant impact on home design with their strong
preferences for energy efficiency and smart home
technology; comfortable, workable kitchens and more
casual spaces, said speakers today from the National
Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Better
Homes and Gardens. Both spoke at a press conference
on housing preferences for millennials, Gen X, boomers
and seniors held during the NAHB International
Builders Show In Las Vegas.

phase of life, so the home building

and finance industries should commit
to better understand the wants and
needs of this generation to offer the
best possible solutions for them,"
Peskin said.
"The results of this important
survey shed light on the buying
preferences of older Americans, and
confirm that an uneasiness over
finances is one of the primary

reasons they are hesitant about

relocating to a new residence that
better suits their needs. At RMF, we
are committed to helping home
owners age 62 and older meet their
financial needs, so this data will be
informative to the way we educate
consumers about our Home Equity
Conversion Mortgage for Purchase
(H4P) product."

Builders Outlook

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For more information:
ElPasoNewBusiness@TXGas.com
William Nieves: 915-496-6126
Jorge Sejera: 915-680-7216
*Source: Council for Responsible Energy

2016 issue 1

2016 issue 1

Builders Outlook

Presidents
Message

Year off to shaky start but El Paso is steady as she goes

Carlos
Villalobos

Even during the worst housing

crisis in recorded history, we were
starting about 2,640 homes a year,
in 2015 we only pulled around
2,000 permits. We havent started
less than 2,000 in 20 years, so it is
very unlikely that we start less than
that in 2016.

President,
El Paso Association
of Builders

The year got off to a shaky start, with

the Dow Jones losing over 1,000 points
or 6% in the first week, oil prices
settling at their lowest level since
February 2004, China facing a
considerable economic slowdown and
an across the board commodities
crash signaling we have oversupplied
the market with production capacity
and inventoried goods. Weve seen
better days, but such is the nature of
economic cycles.
At the end of the day, a lot comes
down to consumer sentiment, people
will keep buying homes if they feel
confident in the economy and security
in their jobs, and of course, have
money in their pockets.
Fortunately for us, lower prices at the
pump mean more money in
consumers pockets and thus more

disposable income for goods and

services, did anybody say mortgage
payment?
Another positive for us here in El
Paso is that according to past
performance, we should have nowhere
to go but up. For those of you who
attended the installation in December
and had to sit through my nerdy
presentation, you might remember the
graph that represents starts in El Paso
for the past 15 years. (Pictured above)
This graph shows that even during
the worst housing crisis in recorded
history, we were starting about 2,640

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homes a year, in 2015 we only pulled

around 2,000 permits. We havent
started less than 2,000 in 20 years, so
it is very unlikely that we start less than
that in 2016.
Another important issue at stake
here is lot availability. Its been getting
harder and harder for developers to
produce affordable lots given todays
development costs, we can only hope
that the commodities crash will help
alleviate some of the costs associated
with developing land, such as diesel,
hot mix asphalt and concrete.
It is my opinion that tight supply of

affordable lots has created some

upward pressure on affordable housing
demand in the Sun City, I believe the
low number of starts we had last year
is another representation of this
phenomenon.
In conclusion, I predict a little bit
more of the same for 2016, El Paso
seems to walk to the beat of its own
drum and that drum has been knocking
out at least 2,000 homes per year for
the past 20 years, so lets keep our
heads up and build El Paso.

Builders Outlook

2016 Issue 1

Executives
Message
Ray Adauto,
Executive
Vice President
EPAB
A trip to Las Vegas to visit the
International Builders Show (IBS)
was just what the doctor ordered. I
got to visit with old friends, make
new ones, and most of all hang
around our members away from
home. Thanks to all of you that took
the time and expense to go. My
special thanks to Randy and Bobby,
Edmundo and Carlos, Fernando
and Sam. Also to Randall and his
family for a great start to the week.
Make plans for Orlando next year
and the year after. I hope to be
able to go then as well.
Going away has its advantages,
but once you get back you realize
really quickly that youre not in
Vegas anymore. Its a challenging
time for us at the EPAB mostly
because weve changed our routine
and its creating some confusion,
mostly about dues. Let me repeat

What do Las Vegas, the Pope and home

building have in common?

here that we have changed the due

date for all members to January of
the calendar year for renewals.
That means that no matter if you
used to be billed in April, you are
now going to be billed in the
months of November and
December for payment of dues by
the end of January. If you havent
paid by then you are considered in
default of membership. With the
move to January and the dues
increase some of you are now
realizing we just made the change.
If you have any questions on that
please call me. But most
importantly mark your calendar for
January dues. Now isnt that
simple?
The Pope is coming, the Pope is
coming and this city is going to
experience something either
magical or frightening. Traffic on

the week of February 15 is going to

be brutal, according to all the
information we know. If you dont
need to be south of the I-10 on
Papal day February 17 then dont.
Schools are closing, city hall is
closing, and downtown will be
cordoned off. Even sections of Loop
375, the border highway, Paisano
and others will be shut down. See
our accompanying press release
from the City of El Paso. Be safe,
be cautious.

Finally I have had the opportunity

to be invited to speak before some
financial folks about new home
construction in El Paso. Some
things that are being looked at is
what is hurting the industry? Is it
over regulation, tougher qualifying
for customers, and higher land
prices or does it come from the one
big thing we can control. Thats
bonuses to realtors and agents.
This is a questionable practice that
is anti-consumer and anti-industry
some say. Things are already
tough enough without these costly
adventures. Trust me that it is a
local practice that doesnt make
economic sense to any builder. And
it looks like its inviting regulators to
inspect the practice. Just saying,
dont gamble with your business
this way.

2016 issue 1

Builders Outlook

National
Builder News
Builder Confidence Holds
Firm in January

n Builder confidence in the market for

newly-built single-family homes held steady
at 60 in January from a downwardly
revised December reading of 60 on the
National Association of Home
Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market
Index.
After eight months hovering in the low
60s, builder sentiment is reflecting that
many markets continue to show a gradual
improvement, which should bode well for
future home sales in the year ahead, said
NAHB Chairman Tom Woods, a home
builder from Blue Springs, Mo.
Januarys HMI reading is right in line
with our forecast of modest growth for
housing, said NAHB Chief Economist
David Crowe. The economic outlook
remains promising, as consumers regain
confidence and home values increase,
which will help the housing market move
forward.
Derived from a monthly survey that
NAHB has been conducting for 30 years,
the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market
Index gauges builder perceptions of current
single-family home sales and sales
expectations for the next six months as
"good," "fair" or "poor." The survey also
asks builders to rate traffic of prospective
buyers as "high to very high," "average" or
"low to very low." Scores for each

component are then used to calculate a

seasonally adjusted index where any
number over 50 indicates that more
builders view conditions as good than poor.
The HMI component gauging current
sales condition rose two points 67 in
January. The index measuring sales
expectations in the next six months fell
three points to 63, and the component
charting buyer traffic dropped two points to
44.
Looking at the three-month moving
averages for regional HMI scores, all four
regions registered slight declines. The
Northeast, Midwest and West each posted
a one-point decline to 49, 57 and 75,
respectively, while the South fell two points
to 61.

Residential Remodeling
Spending Trending Up

n Spending on residential remodels will

continue to trend upward, according to

experts at a press conference hosted by
the National Association of Home Builders
(NAHB) Remodelers at the International
Builders Show in Las Vegas. Professional
remodelers from around the country agreed
with the forecast, citing clients increased
financial security.
NAHB projects that remodeling spending
for owner-occupied single-family homes will
increase 1.1 percent in 2016 over 2015,
and another 1.9 percent in 2017.

BUILDING

NAHB projects that

remodeling spending for
owner-occupied singlefamily homes will increase
1.1 percent in 2016 over
2015, and another 1.9
percent in 2017.
Our remodeler members have regained
confidence in the market as home owners
move forward with new remodeling
projects, as reflected in the positive fourth
quarter results of NAHBs Remodeling
Market Index, said 2016 NAHB
Remodelers Chair Tim Shigley, CAPS,
CGP, GMB, GMR, a remodeler from
Wichita, Kan. NAHB Remodelers looks
forward to working in a strengthened
market as remodeling continues to
increase in popularity.
After recent revisions, Census estimates
now indicate that improvements to owner
occupied housing increased at a real rate
of 1.3 percent last year, which is consistent
with NAHBs expectations and our measure
of remodelers sentiment, said Paul

El Pa
aso

Emrath, NAHBs vice president for survey

and housing policy research. Going
forward, we expect this modest growth in
the market to continue, fueled in part by
steady appreciation in house prices that will
enable owners to tap into their home equity
to fund remodeling projects.
While the economic recovery has
brought about a surge of remodeling
activity for second homes in our market,
access to credit continues to hamper the
remodeling markets full potential locally,
said Jeff Grantham, CAPS, CGP, CGR,
GMB, a remodeler from Petoskey, Mich.
We remodel many of these homes to
make them accessible to family members
of all ages.

SINCE 1950

Builders Outlook

Financial
Perspective

Elliot Eisenberg
Economic & Policy
Blog

Looking at 2016, the domestic

economic landscape looks solid, albeit
unspectacular. The unemployment
rate should continue falling, house
prices are likely to rise by 5%, and the
economy will be led almost entirely by
the continuing improvement in
household balance sheets, and in
conjunction with increased
employment and slightly faster wage
growth. Government spending will be
slightly higher in 2016 (but not enough
to matter), capital expenditures by
firms will remain weak, and exports will
continue to suffer due to the strong US
dollar. The most serious domestic
problem is weak inflation, and it should

2016 Issue 1

Economic Forecast:
2016: Slightly Better Than 2015
begin to increase. Despite continuing
poor global economic growth, the
American economy will not weaken,
but is also unlikely to strengthen much.
With this in mind, I expect full-year
2016 GDP to come in at 2.4%, slightly
higher than the expected 2.2% GDP
growth experienced in 2015. New
housing starts should increase by
about 12%, with total starts coming in
at 1.25 million. Single-family starts will
likely total 830,000, up from 710,000,
while multifamily starts should hit
410,000, up from 400,000. New and
existing home sales should rise by
about 4% and end the year at 6.0
million, with mortgage purchase
volume advancing by $60 billion and
refinance activity falling by about $250
billion. Housing inventories should
jump by about 150,000 units, to 5.5
months of inventory, up from 5.0
months now.
Given the continued improving labor
market, expect net new monthly job
growth to average 185,000/month,
which while down from 205,000/month
in 2015, is excellent given the

shrinking size of the working age

population. As a result, the
unemployment rate should fall from
5.0% today to between 4.6% and 4.8%
by year end and possibly lower,
depending upon the behavior of the
labor force participation rate (LFPR). If
the LFPR rises, and that would be
good, unemployment may end the year
as high as 4.8%, but if the LFPR
continues to fall, an unemployment
rate of 4.6% or even 4.5% is distinctly
possible.
As for inflation, headline inflation will
noticeably increase while core inflation
(which excludes food and energy)
edges up only slightly. Inflation should
rise because energy and commodity
prices are not likely to fall further and
the dollar is unlikely to continue
strengthening. As a result, the
downward pressure these forces have
exerted on headline inflation will cease
and headline inflation, now at 0.3%,
should move towards the core rate
which is now at 1.3% and will probably
rise to 1.7% by year end, which is still
below the Fed target of 2%. As a

result, the Federal Reserve will have

the luxury of time to slowly raise the
federal funds rate from where it is now,
between 0.25% and 0.50%, to
between 1.00% and 1.25% by year
end, with a rate increase coming every
three to four months
As a result of slightly faster GDP
growth and falling unemployment in
2016, 10-year Treasuries will end the
year at 2.75% and 30-year mortgage
rates will probably hover around 4.5%
as the yield curve flattens due to faster
rising short-term rates. But slightly
easing credit conditions and rising
consumer spending due to improving
employment numbers and wages will
keep the economy and housing market
on track despite mildly higher interest
rates. Finally, I put the chances of a
recession in 2016 at 15% to 20%. So
look forward to steady economic
activity in 2016 and fear not slowly
ascending interest rates.

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is President of

GraphsandLaughs, LLC and can be reached at
Elliot@graphsandlaughs.net. His daily 70 word
economics and policy blog can be seen at
www.econ70.com.

U.S. recession cries get louder

America's economy is not in a recession, but

fears of one are growing fast.
http://money.cnn.com/

The chance of the U.S. sinking into a

full-blown recession now stand at 18%,
according to a CNNMoney survey of
economists this week.
That's nearly double what the
nation's top economic policymaker
predicted only a month ago.
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen
put the probability of a recession in
2016 at about 10% during her
December press conference after the
Fed raised interest rates for the first
time in years.
She has said repeatedly that she
thinks a recession is not on the
horizon. The U.S. has enjoyed two
years of incredibly strong job growth -the best since 1999 -- and the
economy is expanding at a healthy
pace of around 2% a year.
"There are plenty of things to worry
about in the world, but the health and
ongoing strength of the U.S. economy
is not one of them," says James Smith
of EconForecaster.com.
But the risks are rising, and the
pessimists are getting bolder in their
predictions.
The stock market is off to its worst
start ever to a year. China's stock
market is tanking again, pulling much
of Europe and Asia into bear market
territory. While it's clear that China's
economy is slowing down, no one is
certain just how bad it is. Chinese data
is questionable, and the country's head

statistician is now under investigation

for possible corruption.
While the U.S. remains healthy for
now, to paraphrase John Donne, "no
economy is an island" anymore.
There's a spillover effect.
American stocks plunged into
correction (a 10% drop) this month as
investors don't see how U.S.
companies can continue to grow a lot
when China and so many emerging
markets are having issues.
Citigroup predicted a 65% chance of
a U.S. recession, a call that was so
eyebrow raising that Yellen herself felt
the need to swat it away, calling it
"absolutely" wrong.
The stock market almost never leads
the economy into a recession. It's
usually the other way around.
"The equity market has completely
divorced itself from U.S. economic
fundamentals," says Bernard Baumohl,
chief economist at The Economic
Outlook Group. "Low interest rates,
cheap oil prices, and the lowest input
costs ever for business are not -- and
never will be -- the precursors of
recession."
Nearly all the experts say the key is
the American consumer. As long as
people keep spending, the U.S. -- and
the world -- should pull through.
But there are warning signs even
beyond the stock market.
"The manufacturing sector is already
in recession," says Brett Ryan, chief
economist at Deutsche Bank. Ryan

and many economists told CNNMoney

they are watching claims for
unemployment benefits closely as an
indicator that the strain is moving
beyond manufacturing and into other
parts of the economy.
Beyond jobs, Ryan is also watching
car sales, tax receipts and loans
(specifically the Fed's senior loan
officer survey). So far, everything other
than manufacturing still looks solid.
The Fed's modest interest rate hike
was supposed to be a vote of
confidence that the U.S. economy had
finally put the Great Recession behind
it and was back on solid footing. But
now Washington, Wall Street and Main

Street question if that optimism is far

too rosy.
The Fed predicts four more rate
hikes in 2016. Investors now think
that's far-fetched and will be watching
the central bank's statement closely on
Wednesday for signs the Fed is "on
hold" again.
"It's no leap to say the four rate
hikes envisioned by the Fed this year
seem increasingly implausible," wrote
Morgan Stanley in a recent report.
"Stall speed in the U.S., or even a shift
to a lower channel of growth, would
likely halt the Fed in its tracks."

2016 ISSUE 1

Buildeers Outlook
On the Scene
Board Member Orientation

The 2016 Board of Directors had an orientation on what

and hows of being a director for the association. Ray
Adauto did a quick review of what the association is and
isnt and how each director must conform to regulations
that affect the board. What I want them to go out with is
the understanding that this is much a business as it is
anything else, and we have responsibilities to uphold, Ray
told the Outlook. Among the issues that were presented
was the importance of protecting sensitive information that
is discussed at Board meetings, or within the financial
information that is learned and discussed. I think what
Ray wanted to do is to emphasize to us that there are real
responsibilities as an elected or appointed member of the
Board, said President Carlos Villalobos. We are the
ultimate responsible party and Im glad we all agree to
uphold the directorship, he continued.

Builders Outlook

Buildeers Outlook
On the Scene

International Builders Show,

Las Vegas

Its Vegas Baby!

By Ray Adauto
The 2016 edition of the International Builders
Show took place in Las Vegas January 19-21. The
annual gathering of product, services, education and
fun was held at the Las Vegas Convention Center.
Surfaces the show for counter tops and related
items was held at the Mandalay Bay Hotel on the
south strip. The IBS has grown to include KBIS, the
kitchen and bath show along with window coverings
show. No matter how prepared you think you are the
show takes at least two full days to see and more
than likely three. The National Association of
Builders along with state and local associations
come together for education on all types of subjects.
Those classes begin on the Saturday before the
exhibitions open and continue after the exhibitors
close. This year the El Paso Association of Builders
continued to be well represented at the IBS.
Although this reporter wasnt able to see everyone
who did attend from El Paso I was able to run into
several members.
Frank and Isela Torres took in Las Vegas early,
enjoying a quick non-stop on the same plane I took.
The flight went well but at the luggage carousel we
encountered an unusual sight of a piece of luggage
hung up against the conveyor belt and the carousel.
Several times we were told that there appeared to be
a problem and that help would be coming. Finally
after 45 minutes they diverted our luggage to
another carousel and we were off. If youve ever
been to Vegas for a convention you know that in
spite of the preparedness of the city things can and
do go wrong. Imagine if you will having one hundred
thousand people coming into town and then throw in
filming for the new Bourne film. Exactly what
happened and that meant traffic was a nightmare.
For those taking taxis the cost of travel multiplied as
the meter kept running during the long waits at lights,
diversions, and closures. For those driving you had
to figure alternate routes. Still transportation to and
from the IBS went pretty well on the provided buses.
There are several halls at the show and we started
at the north hall for KBIS, simply one of the best
parts of this show. Whatever you could imagine was
on display from giant companies like Delta and
Moen, to some of the smaller boutique or
international companies trying to get a foothold in the
market. Because of the international flavor visitors
came from all around the world, looking and making
deals.
The central halls were where the IBS or builders
show took place. Hundreds of thousands of square
feet of all things for building, from trucks to tumblers,
nails to glues everything you need to build was on
display. I found several items of interest here mostly
having to do with insulation and alternative energy.
Contrary to tradition these alternate ways to get
water, provide electricity or dampen the cold were
really growing and maturing. One particular vendor
showed how to capture drinking water from the air, a
sort of machine out of the future. Others showed the
latest in lighting with heavy emphasis on LED
technology.
In the South hall many smaller companies showed
off their products including several companies
launching new products at this show. Asia, and in
particular China was well represented again. Some
exciting products from Mexico and Canada were
also displayed.
Edmundo Dena (Accent Homes) and Carlos
Villalobos (EPAB President and Pointe Homes)
toured with me on Wednesday and came away
enthusiastic with what they saw. I was hoping to
find something that I can use at Accent to bring more
of a wow factor to my product line, and I think I found
several items Ill be looking at more closely, said
Dena. I agree that we came to see something,
exactly what I dont know but thats whats great
about a huge show like this, youll find something

unexpected, just like I did, President Villalobos said.

Both agreed that the show is overwhelming
especially for the first timer. Even though we have
been here before theres always new things to look
at, said Leti Navarrete who along with husband
Javier enjoyed the show. Member that I saw were
from Classic American Homes, Pacifica Homes,
CTU Metro Homes, Cullers and Caldwell, Cullers
Homes, Tropicana Homes, Bella Vista Homes,
Custom Dream Homes, MA Homes, Crown Heritage
Homes, Morrison Supply, Ferguson Supply, GMF
Homes, Accent Homes. If I missed some of you Im

sorry but theres so much going on that sometimes I

only saw folks away from the show.
My thanks to all of you who shared the experience
with me or sat enjoyed Vegas at the restaurants,
tables, or show floor. Ill think you all will agree that
nothing compares to a show like the IBS/KBIS in
Vegas. Next year the show moves to Orlando,
Florida. Its Disney and Universal versus Caesars
and the Wynn. Make plans to attend the 2017
IBS/KBIS in Orlando.

City prepares for Papal Visit

El Paso, Texas The City of El

Paso is preparing to impose traffic
control and operational changes in
the interest of public safety, health
and welfare as a result of Pope
Francis landmark visit to the border.
Pope Francis will be in Jurez on
February 17, 2016. He will not visit El
Paso. However, due to the proximity
of his motorcade route and mass to
the El Paso-Jurez border, the City of
El Paso will restrict travel in
downtown and South-Central El
Paso.
Enhanced traffic control will also be
necessary near the Sun Bowl where
the Catholic Diocese of El Paso will
have a celebration on the day of the
Popes visit to commemorate the
historic event.
Travel Updates, Road Closures
For safety purposes, the public is
being asked to avoid traveling to
downtown and South-Central El Paso
on the day of the papal border visit.
The City of El Paso will not provide
any mass viewing areas related to the
papal border visit. The Mass in
Jurez will not be visible from El Paso
roadways.
Loop 375 will be closed as part of
security measures. The public will not
be allowed to gather on Loop 375.
The Information about the Dioceses
event at the Sun Bowl is available at
http://www.elpasodiocese.org/popesvisit.html.
The publics cooperation and
patience in abiding by the travel
restrictions and enhanced traffic
control in downtown, South-Central
and West-Central will be appreciated.
El Paso Police and Fire officials
have been meeting regularly with
other public safety and law
enforcement agencies to prepare for
the visit and to coordinate efforts.
Planned road closures and travel
restrictions include:
Loop 375 from U.S. Highway-54 to
Santa Fe will be closed in both
directions to traffic (vehicular,
pedestrian, bicycle, etc.) for
approximately a 24-hour period
starting at 3 a.m. on February, 17,
2016.
Loop 375 from U.S. Highway-54 to

Yarbrough will be closed to traffic

(vehicular, pedestrian, bicycle, etc.)
from 10 a.m. until the Pope
departs the Mass location and his
motorcade travels away from
roadways adjacent to the El PasoJurez.
City streets in South-Central El
Paso bounded by Loop 375 to the
south, Campbell to
the west, Paisano to
the north and
Coles/First to the
east will have limited
access to traffic
(vehicular,
pedestrian, bicycle,
etc.) starting at 3
a.m. on February 17,
2016. Access in the
restricted area will be limited to
residents and businesses.
Once Pope Frances arrives at
the Mass location in Jurez no one
will be allowed to leave or re-enter
the restricted area until the Pope
departs the mass.
Campbell from Paisano to
Interstate 10 will be closed to
vehicular traffic starting at 3 a.m.
on February 17, 2016. The closure
will remain until the Pope departs
the mass.
Cotton from Paisano to Interstate
10 will be closed to vehicular traffic
starting at 3 a.m. on February 17,
2016. The closure will remain until
the Pope departs the mass.
Delta will be closed from Paisano
to Boone will be closed to
vehicular traffic starting at 3 a.m.
on February 17, 2016. The closure
will remain until the Pope departs
the mass.
Additional closures may be
necessary should plans related to
the papal border visit change.
Community Meetings
The City of El Paso is hosting
community meetings in South-Central
to notify residents and businesses of
traffic control plans impacting their
neighborhoods. Three meetings will
be held at the Armijo Recreation
Center gymnasium at 700 E. Seventh

Here is what you need

to know:

Avenue. Meeting time and dates:

1:30 p.m. Wednesday, January 27,
2016
10:30 a.m. Thursday, January 28,
2016
6 p.m. Monday, February 1, 2016\

International Bridges
All international ports of entry in the
region, including
Paso Del Norte,
Stanton Street, and
Ysleta, will be open
in both directions on
February 17, 2016.
The public is
asked to plan ahead
if traveling across
the border. The
Office of Emergency
Management in El Paso recommends
traveling across the border at least a
day in advance for those planning on
participating in papal events in
Jurez.
Customs and Border Protection has
committed to assisting with moving
traffic steadily northbound at the
border by having all lanes open on
February 17, 2016. Commercial traffic
will be rerouted on February 17, 2016
from the Bridge of the Americas to
Ysleta to assist with mitigating traffic.
Anyone traveling across the border
should carry a current passport or
border crossing card.
The publics cooperation and
patience will be appreciated at the
Paso Del Norte, Stanton Street and
Ysleta bridges as delays in getting
through toll collection stations may
occur due to the increase
international travelers. Providing toll
collectors with exact change will
assist in keeping delays to a
minimum. Debit and credit card
payments will be accepted. Mexican
currency will also be accepted. Fare
information is available at
www.elpasotexas.gov/internationalbridges/fares.
Sun Metro
Fixed routes will be serving
customers traveling to downtown El
Paso on February 17, 2016. They will
have extended hours on that day with
the last buses leaving at 10:15 p.m.

Several Sun Metro routes will be

detoured as a result of the planned
road closures. Service delays should
be expected for all routes serving the
Downtown Transfer Center.
Information about detoured routes is
available at www.pope915.com and
may be obtained by calling (915) 2123333.
Park and Ride
Park and Ride services will be
available to the Sun Bowl on
February 17, 2016. Park and Ride
roundtrip fare to the Sun Bowl is $3.
Exact change is required. Parking is
free at Sun Metro lots. Departures to
the Sun Bowl will be scheduled for
every 30 minutes between 10 a.m.
and 3:30 p.m. at all locations. Park
and Ride locations:
Eastside Transfer Center, 1165
Sunmount near Cielo Vista Mall
Far Eastside: Edgemere at R.C.
Poe
Mission Valley Transfer Center,
9065 Alameda
Northeast Transfer Center, at
Diana and Dyer
Al Jefferson Westside Transfer
Center, 7535 Remcon

City Office Closures

The City of El Paso will be
operating under a modified work
week. All administrative offices will be
open on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday
and Friday. The city is working on
Friday in lieu of its regular
Wednesday work day due to the
papal border visit. Essential
personnel will follow a normal work
schedule.
Stay Informed
Information about traffic control,
travel and City service operational
changes related to the papal border
visit is available at
www.pope915.com. The public may
also access information by clicking on
the Pope915 banner at the Citys
homepage at www.elpasotexas.gov or
by subscribing to social media using
Twitter hashtag #pope915 or liking
the City of El Paso on Facebook @
www.facebook.com/elpasotexasgov.

The value of your EPAB Membership just got even better!

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10

Builders Outlook

Legislature
The National Association
of Home Builders (NAHB)
urged Congress to pass
legislation that would help
streamline programs to help
low-income home buyers
and renters.
The Housing Opportunity Through
Modernization Act of 2015 (H.R.
3700) includes many NAHBsupported bipartisan fixes to HUD
programs, specifically regarding
Section 8, FHA and rural housing,
NAHB Immediate Past Chairman
Kevin Kelly testified at a hearing
before the House Financial Services
Committees Housing and Insurance
Subcommittee.
Introduced by Subcommittee
Chairman Blaine Luetkemeyer (RMo.), the legislation includes a
number of reforms to increase access
to affordable rental housing, provide
assistance to low-income renters and
facilitate homeownership. Specifically,
the bill would:

2016 issue 1

Home Builders Support House Bill that

Streamlines HUD Programs

recent executive order on Federal

Flood Risk Management Standards
could result in unintended
consequences for housing. The
executive order expands floodplains
management requirements far beyond
the long-established 100-year
floodplains limits for all federally
funded construction projects.
HUD has indicated it will apply the
new flood risk management standard
to multifamily projects using FHAbacked loans for new construction
and substantial rehabilitation as well
as Community Development Block
Grants and HOME grants.
However, HUD has not mapped the
geographic limits of the floodplain nor
analyzed the costs and benefits of
implementing the new standard.
To avoid undermining the many
positive outcomes H.R. 3700 will have
on housing affordability, NAHB is

urging HUD to develop and release

for public comment a cost-benefit
analysis associated with the new
standard and identify the additional
floodplain area for which future HUD
actions must comply before it begins
to implement the executive order.
We strongly urge HUD to use any

and all flexibility when implementing

the order to ensure HUDs rules do
not make construction or substantial
rehabilitation of HUD-financed or
HUD-assisted multifamily housing
cost prohibitive, said Kelly.

Allow the contract terms of HUDs

Section 8 Housing Choice
Voucher program to be extended
from 15 to 20 years.
Pare down duplicative
requirements that have made the
Section 8 program difficult to
administer.

Protect Section 8 Housing Choice

Voucher residents from
displacement due to fluctuations in
the Fair Market Rent, which
determines payment standard
amounts for the voucher program.

Change the Rural Housing Service

Single Family Guaranteed Loan
Program so that it will be current
with other government loan
programs while providing
efficiencies for home buyers and
lenders.

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Executive Order on Floodplain
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While this legislation would help
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2016 issue 1

Builders Outlook

In History
Architecture

Mabel Welch (1890-1981)

11

El Paso's first and greatest female architect

A wife and mother in her 20s.

A widow and the sole owner of a
construction business at 35.
A University student at 46.
A registered architect at 49.

n todays American culture, women are

encouraged to follow their dreams
regardless of age. But for a woman who
moved from Mississippi to Texas in 1900 in a
covered wagon to marry late, have her first
child at almost 30, run a successful business
and go to a university in her 40s in the early
part of the twentieth century was most unusual.
Mabel Clair Vanderburg Welch never blinked
an eye. As she once said, Things had to be
done, and I managed to get them done.
Mabel Welch accompanied her husband from
DeKalb, Texas, to El Paso in 1916, looking for
a cure for his tuberculosis. Born near
Longtown, Mississippi, she would not only
embrace her new home but become the first
woman architect in El Paso and only the second
registered one in Texas.
Following graduation from high school,
Mabel Vanderburg served apprenticeships in
both millinery and interior decoration,
traditional female pursuits in her day. These
two artistic endeavors would serve her well
both in helping her husband with his building
company and later when she herself began
building homes.
After courting for five years, Malcolm and
Mabel married in 1915. During an Army
physical, Malcolm was told he had TB and a
doctor recommended that he come to dry West
Texas. Malcolm took three years to convalesce,
and although he had been a successful merchant
in DeKalb, he began building houses in El
Paso, an occupation that would keep him
outside in the soothing dry air he and Mabel
had come to love. Having built houses on a
farm he owned, Malcolm began financing
homes for El Paso residents and by 1920 began
building homes in earnest.
From the beginning, Mabel was an active
part of Welch Construction Company. She did
all the drawings for the houses her husband
built, as well as the interior decorating. He built
houses on Trowbridge Drive, Pershing Drive,
Tularosa Avenue, Hastings Drive all over
Central El Paso and in the Lower Valley, all
of dark brick with white trim and black lines
around screen doors. The couple would move
into a newly built house until it was sold. In a
1960 interview Mabel said, For five years we
did not occupy the same house over two
months at a time. My husband built them and I
furnished them.
Three years after their arrival in El Paso,
their only child, Elvin Carl, was born in
December 1919. Even though Mabel Welch
called herself old fashioned for believing that
women who have a good economic position
should not work, she herself was not only a
wife and mother but a draftswoman and
decorator and part owner of a successful
company in the 1920s.
In 1924, Malcolms TB became active again
and Mabel had to finish a house under
construction. While her husband was in the
hospital, Mabel built the home she lived in
most of her life at 3131 Wheeling Ave. The
house was designed as a duplex, with her
tubercular husband living in quarantine in the
east side which opened to a porch where he
could talk with his building crews. As an adult,
his son Elvin recalled the only way he and his
dad could communicate while the latter was
quarantined was to wave to each other from
their respective sides of this uniquely designed
house.
In a typed autobiography her son recently
presented to the El Paso County Historical
Society, Mabel Welch noted that at first, the
men who worked for her husband refused to
work for a woman. So she replaced them and
had no more trouble. She proceeded to build
nine homes in the 3100 block of Wheeling
Avenue and a total of 15 on the street in order
to be close to her son and husband. During this

Welch also built huge homes on Rim Road for prominent families, including A. B. Poe, J.
P. Kemp and F. P. Schuster, whose house was designed not in Spanish style but English
Norman, based on ideas the Schusters had collected from various sources during a trip to
Europe in 1927
time, Malcolm advised his wife on financial
matters, building techniques and methods of
dealing with building crews, and she learned
every part of the business. In 1927, Malcolm
died, and Mabel became the sole owner of the
construction business, drawing all the plans,
supervising the building, and even keeping the
books.
At the time of Malcolms death, the Welches
had a home under construction which had to be
completed or Mabel would have lost the
$10,000 bond. She needed money to complete
construction and also to build other houses
nearby, so she went to Sam Young, then
president of El Paso National Bank, who lent
her the money immediately, despite the fact that
widows were poor financial risks in her day. In
her autobiography, Mabel said that Young lent
her money because he had never seen me
dancing or partying in Jurez.
Mabel had begun building Spanish style
homes before her husbands death. Having
discovered Spanish architecture in California
while on a vacation, she thought the style
complemented El Pasos culture more than the
Eastern red brick bungalow style that was then
popular. She showed Malcolm one of her early
Spanish houses on 2915 Wheeling Ave. on the
way to the hospital for the last time before he
died. Its very beautiful, he said.
Her second such design was at 2731
Wheeling Ave. and then three elaborate twostory houses followed in Castle Heights below
Manhattan Heights. From then on, Mabel
Welch would be known for her SpanishMediterranean designs with wrought iron
decoration, red tile roofs, arches, balconies, and
courtyards.
While many builders went out of business
during the Depression, Welch did not. She sold
her medium-priced houses as quickly as they
were built. In 1934, the Womens Division of
the Chamber of Commerce began an
architectural program in El Paso to support the
use of Spanish design. Welch herself wrote, A
city with our historical background and
geographical location should have an
architectural flavor appropriate to, and typical
of, our surrounding culture. In 1935, the city
presented her with an official commendation
for changing the predominant style of
architecture in El Paso from American
bungalow to Mediterranean.
In 1936, Welch studied architecture and
related subjects at the University of Chicago. In
1937, Mabel Welch began studying with
George Washington Smith of Santa Barbara, the
foremost authority on Spanish Colonial Revival
architecture in California and credited for that
states love affair with the style. She also

studied Spanish architecture in Mexico City and

San Antonio. In 1939, the Society of American
Registered Architects admitted Mabel Welch, El
Pasos first woman so honored.
The first expensive Spanish style home that
Welch built was at 3100 Gold Ave. for the Paul
Harvey family. With walls two feet thick, as
many as five layers of tile on the roof, heavy
wooden beams to support the tile and ironwork
made to look old, the house caused Welch to
hire Mexican artisans to produce many of the
Spanish techniques, as American workers did
not have the needed skills. Welch writes in her
autobiography that she hired a Mexican wood
carver to carve the faces of the Harvey children
on the ceiling beams of the living room and
other decorations throughout the home.
Welch also built huge homes on Rim Road
for prominent families, including A. B. Poe, J.
P. Kemp and F. P. Schuster, whose house was
designed not in Spanish style but English
Norman, based on ideas the Schusters had
collected from various sources during a trip to
Europe in 1927. The original recycler, Welch
bought marble mantles and stair treads from the
old U.S. Courthouse downtown when it was
razed and used the marble in the Schuster
castle in 1939. She was to use other salvaged
materials in other houses during her career.
In 1943, Welch and several other members of
the Womens Division of the El Paso Chamber
of Commerce took a goodwill tour of
Chihuahua City, about 220 miles south of El
Paso to study the citys Spanish architecture
and the regulations that kept that city so clean
and inviting. Welch came back with many ideas
to incorporate into her own designs. This
goodwill tour also created a bond with Mexico,
and it was such a success that the El Paso
Chamber invited the Chihuahuan women to
visit later that year.
Four of Welchs Spanish designs were
chosen for inclusion in Planning Your Home for
Better Living by Clarence W. Dunham, Yale
engineering professor and Milton D. Thalberg.
The house at 3038 Federal Ave. was one of the
featured homes in the book used at Yale
University for several years as a compilation of
outstanding architecture throughout the nation.
In 1959, Mabel Welch became a Fellow in
the Society of American Registered Architects
in recognition of her long and distinguished
career. She built more than 800 homes in West
Texas, New Mexico and Northern Mexico.
Many of those were in Manhattan Heights, a
historical district at the base of the Franklin
Mountains in Central El Paso. Welch built a
number of large homes after World War II on
Gold Avenue, Silver Street and Frankfort
Avenue. She also became a real estate broker

and bought older homes to remodel and sell.

While excelling in her career, Welch raised
her son, who became an electrical engineer, and
spent much of his life working with the nations
space and guided missile programs. She was
active in the Womens Division of the Chamber
of Commerce for decades, influencing many
businesses to build in Mediterranean style
downtown, helping to give El Paso a distinctive
look. Taking an active role in making El Paso
an attractive place to live, Welch established the
Beautify El Paso Association in 1966 and
worked on President Lyndon B. Johnsons
beautification committee.
She served her city in many ways including
working for the Sun Carnival Association and
womens auxiliaries of Texas Western College
(now UTEP), the symphony and Providence
Memorial Hospital. She was a member of the
National Society of Arts and Letters, the El
Paso Museum of Art, the Historical Society and
the Humane Society.
Welch was always interested in furthering the
relations between El Paso and Mexico and was
active in the Pan American Round Table and
established the Jurez Chamber of Commerce
Womens Department. Texas Governor Coke
Stevenson recognized Welch for renewed
efforts toward good neighborly relations with
Mexico.
By 1960, Welch recognized that fewer homes
were being built in Mediterranean design.
Whereas in the 1920s and 1930s, adobe was
among the cheapest of building materials, it had
become one of the most expensive, along with
the red tile roofs her designs featured. Late in
life, she gave her vast collection of books on
Spanish architecture to the El Paso Public
Library.
Welch died in December 1981 in California
where her son and family lived. She was 91. In
fall 2008, the El Paso County Historical Society
inducted her into its Hall of Honor. Her son
Elvin, retired and living in Yakima,
Washington, attended the ceremony. He told Pat
Worthington, curator for the Society, that his
mother had made him promise to burn all her
plans and papers in McKelligon Canyon after
her death. Like a good son, Elvin did. What has
not been destroyed, however, are all the
marvelous Spanish homes in Manhattan
Heights and other areas in town that Mabel
Welch created for families, a concept that gave
her such joy.
By Elizabeth Torres, Javier Medina, and
Ruth Vise.
Source:
http://epcc.libguides.com/content.php?pid=309
255&sid=289161

12
Introductions

Meet your board member

The Builders Outlook asked EPAB

Board Members some interesting
questions There responses were even
more interesting!

Sal Masoud

What is the strangest

food you have ever
eaten?
Deep fried cockroaches
and Whataburger
What in your life is more
important than money?
My children
What makes you feel old?
Knowing I am going to be a
grandfather in March.
Who do you admire as a leader?
Saladin
If you could have a drink with
someone form history who
would it be?
Genghis Khan
What is the best invention
during your lifetime?
The internet

What...
Builders Outlook

Leslie Driggers
What makes you feel
old?
Paying income taxes.

Person in history I'd

like to have a drink with:
Mabel Welch.
What creeps you out?
Appliances that think they're
smarter than individual humans.
Cause you'd fight for?
Human rights in childbirth and
parenting, supporting the right to
informed consent.
First job?
Babysitting John Martin's adorable
little kids. First paying gig!

2016 issue 1

Mark Winton

If you had 1,000,000

dollars to give away,
how would you do it?
Build free homes for
disabled veterans.
What makes you feel young?
Looking at all the other builders.
What makes you feel old?
Starting to go grey at 29.
Who do you admire as a leader?
Joe Rogan
Where are you most likely to be
at 8:00 on a Saturday night?
At home getting ready to go out
with my wife

The El Paso Association of Builders presents

PARADE

HOMES
Enchanted Hills
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May 28-June 12

Preview Party May 27

Development by: Southwest Land Development

Beautiful Homes by:
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2016 Issue 1

Association
News & Events

13

Builders Outlook

If you have an event or meeting that you would like to share with
EPAB members, please submit your information to:
margaret1@elpasobuilders.com

&

innovative design

UPCOMING
EVENTS
FEBRUARY 10
BOARD MEETING
11:00 AM
GENERAL MEETING
12 NOON
MARRIOTT HOTEL
FEBRUARY 24
LUNCH AND LEARN
NOON
EPAB OFFICE
MARCH 11-13
HOME & GARDEN SHOW
CONVENTION CENTER

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CONTACT:
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Connect to the El Paso

Association of Builders:
www.elpasobuilders.com

ted escobedo

ted@snappypublishingcom
talk & text: 9158202800
Get Creative. Make it Snappy.

BUILDERS:
Are you searching for customers who are searching for a new home?

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14

Builders Outlook

2016 issue 1

Expert
Advice

Your step by step guide for personal

financial planning

Joe Bernal

Employer Benefits of El Paso

All experts agree that the surest

way to have healthy finances your
entire life is to create and follow a
long-term financial plan. Heres your
step by-step guide to getting yours
started.
Step 1 Establish Your
Emergency Fund
Plan how you will create an
emergency fund, where you keep at
least six months worth of living
expenses safe and liquid. This
account is not only meant for saving
money for rainy days (losses incurred
by investments, disability, disaster
recovery, unemployment, etc.), but
also for planned expenses.
Proactively assess what big expenses
will come your way in the next few
years, such as replacing your old
furnace or a down payment for a new
home, and save accordingly.
Step 2 Plan to Repay
Your Debt
Make reducing and eliminating debt
your priority using all available
funds to pay off debt.
Start with your credit card debt and
student loan, and pay them down as
quickly as you can. Assess their
interest rates and see possible
options for reducing those interest
rates. Check if loans are taxdeductible and how much you can
write off.
Step 3 Take Advantage of
Employer matches
If your employer offers a 401(k)
retirement plan, find out whether your
employer offers a matching
contribution. Many employers will
match up to a certain dollar amount
every dollar you contribute. Contribute
as much as you can, because
whatever you add simply increases
because of the employer match. You
can contribute up to $18,000 during
2016. Individuals age 50 and over
can make an additional $6,000 catch

up contribution.
Additionally, some 401(k) plans
allow you to make Roth contributions.
You cannot deduct these
contributions from current income, but
you will receive any withdrawals you
make after retirement free of income
taxes. If your employer does not offer
this option, you might want to look
into opening a Roth IRA. Your tax
advisor can help you determine the
proper mix of tax-advantaged benefits
for your expected post-retirement
situation.
Although retirement may seem far
off, being aggressive with your
savings right now will let you enjoy
the advantages of interest
compounding.
Step 4 Insure
Most people think they are
appropriately covered with their
current insurance policies, only to
realize theyre not when tough times
or a disaster bulldozes through their
life.
Create your long-term insurance
plan based on the needs of your
family, your age and current (and
expected) economic situation. Start
with the most basic requirements
firsthealth insurance and life
insurance, if you have dependents.
From there, you can expand your
portfolio to include disability income
insurance, critical illness insurance,
long-term care insurance and even
annuities.
Step 5 Saving For Kids
You may have already started
saving for your childrens college
tuition. Although starting early is the
best plan of action, you can maximize
your savings by starting a 529 college
savings plan. Some universities have
prepaid tuition plans, which allow you
to lock in current rates. (Of course, if
you do this, your child will have to go
to this university!) Families can also
minimize college expenses by
selecting lower-cost schools or
dividing time between military
service/community college and
university.
For a review of your financial
situation and assistance in developing
your financial plan, please contact us.
Employer Benefits of El Paso
(915) 542-0900
joe@employeebenefitsep.com
www.employeebenefitsofelpaso.com

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Builders
Outlook

15

2016

El Paso Disposal

Issue 1

772-7495
6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905
915-778-5387 Fax: 915-772-3038

EXECUTIVE OFFICERS

PRESIDENT

Carlos Villalobos

VICE PRESIDENT

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF
HOME BUILDERS

(800) 368-5242

Don Rassette

SECRETARY/TREASURER

TEXAS ASSOCIATION OF

Kathy Parry

BUILDERS

(800)252-3625

ASSOCIATES CHAIR
John Dorney

ECECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT

Ray Adauto

PAST PRESIDENT
Edgar Montiel

Membership Retentiion
Patrick Tuttle

Finance Committee
Kathy Carrillo

Henry Tinajero

ADVISORY TO THE BOARD

Jay Kerr, Firth, Johnston, Bunn & Kerr

James Martinez, Law Office of James Martinez

2015 Builder Member Of The Year

Edgar Montiel

2015 Associate Of The Year

Interceramic Tile

2015 John Shatzman Award

Honorary Life Members

Mark Dyer

Wayne Grinnell

Don Henderson
Cliff C. Anthes
Anna Gill

Brad Roe

Rudy Guel

Robert Najera, Joseph Custom Homes

E H Baeza

Bud Foster, Southwest Land Development Services

Walter Lujan, Dawco Home Builders

Mark Winton, Mark Winton Homes, Inc.

Jason Cullers, Cullers Homes

Samira Gonzalez, ICON Custom Homes

Sal Masoud, DRE Development

Joe Bernal, Employer Benefits Of El Paso

Linda Troncoso, TRE & Associates

Bret Thompson, Foxworth Galbraith Lumber

Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing, LLC
Patrick Tuttle, Legacy Real Estate
Sam Trimble, Lone Star Title

Luis Rosas, HUB International

Gilbert Pedregon, GECU

Gregg Davis, First Light FCU

TAB STATE DIRECTORS

Randy Bowling
Greg Bowling

Sam Shallenberger
NATIONAL DIRECTORS

Bobby Bowling IV.

Demetrio Jimenez

915-208-9313
602-708-7560

Chester Lovelady

Leti Navarrete, Dream Homes/Bella Homes

Edgar Garcia, Bella Vista Cutom Homes

Total Customer
Satisfaction

Bradley Roe

Antonio Cervantes, BIC Homes

Leslie Driggers-Hoard, Homes By Design

Residential Specialists
Tract Homes Custom Homes

Palo Verde Homes

BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Fernando Torres, CTU Metro Homes

For All Your Electrical Needs

Past Presidents

Committed to Serve

Greg Bowling

Kelly Sorenson
Mark Dyer

Mike Santamaria
John Cullers

Randy Bowling

Doug Schwartz
Robert Baeza

Bobby Bowling, IV
Rudy Guel
Anna Gil

Bradley Roe

Bob Bowling, III

Edmundo Dena

Hershel Stringfield
Pat Woods

EPAB Mission Statement:

The El Paso Association of Builders is
a federated professional organization
representing the home building
industry, committed to enhancing the
quality of life in our community by
providing affordable homes of
excellence and value.
The El Paso Association of Builders
is a 501C(6) trade organization.
2015 Builders Outlook
is published and distributed for the
El Paso Association of Builders
by Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing, LLC
ted@snappypublishing.com
El Paso Texas 915-820-2800

Builders
Outlook

www.elpasobuilders.com

National, State & Local Building Industry News

2015: Issue 10

2016: Housing
Recovery to pick
up steam amid
challenges

teady employment and economic growth, pent-up

demand, affordable home prices and attractive
mortgage rates will keep the housing market on a
gradual upward trend in 2016. However, persistent
headwinds related to shortages and availability of lots
and labor, along with rising materials prices are
impeding a more robust recovery, according
to economists who
participated in a National Association
of Home Builders (NAHB) Fall
Construction ForecastWebinar.
This recovery is all about jobs, said
NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. If
people can get good jobs that pay decent
incomes, the housing market will continue
to move forward.
The good news, Crowe added, is that
total U.S. employment of 142 million is now
well above the previous peak of 138 million
that occurred in 2008.
The one caveat is that job growth has
been concentrated heavily in the service
sector, which tends to pay lower wages
than goods producing jobs.
Meanwhile, home equity has nearly
doubled since 2011 and now stands at
$12.5 trillion.
The single biggest asset in most
peoples portfolio is the home they own,
said Crowe. Thats important because the
primary purchasers of new homes are the
sellers of existing homes. The more equity

Fall Home and

Garden Show
attracts thousands
The annual Fall Home and Garden show
brought thousands of people into the
Judson Williams Convention Center as the
show kicked off October 9. The throngs of
people were greeted by a very nicely
presented show compliments of the
producer Show Technology out of San
Antonio.
The show featured a spectacular
showcase home by new builder member
Metro Homes. The design of the display
was made to be partially constructed off
site in order to meet the time lines
established for the show. I have to tell you
that even with that additional time we really
hustled to make sure we had a great
product to show, said Fernando Torres of
CTU Metro Homes. Beautiful and elegantly
staged the house became the favorite of
the show winning Best of Show for the
efforts. We are excited to be able to show
off our models to the public and to the real
estate agents because were new to the
market and we think we have a very good
product to offer the consumer, Torres
continued.

they have, the more comfortable they feel

about purchasing a new home.
And while mortgage interest rates are
expected to rise over the near-term,
averaging 4.5 percent in 2016 and 5.5
percent in 2017, Crowe said this is not
expected to have an impact on the housing
recovery. As the economy gets better, job
and wage growth should keep pace. So
even though mortgage rates will rise, they
will still be low by historical standards and
very affordable.

Supply Headwinds
Crowe noted several factors that are
hindering a more robust recovery. Citing an
NAHB survey of its members, 13 percent of
builders reported the cost and availability of
labor was a significant problem in 2011 and
that concern jumped to 61 percent in 2014.
About one-fifth of builders shared the
No doubt that the home brought together
ideas that really made the showcase home
that much more interesting. The process
of actually piecing the walls together,
setting up the floor and the all that goes on
a wall or in the ceiling is not something for
the faint hearted. We were asked by
Habitat for Humanity to donate what we
could from this build, and Im proud that we
could, Torres told the Outlook. The rest of
the showcase was quickly taken to a lot
waiting for some of the frame and other
parts that could be used so to not go to
waste. Overall a very beautiful green
showcase home that will continue to give
for years to come.
The Fall Home and Garden was the only
show of its kind this year since the civic
center was taken over for the Mens
Bowling Championship (ABC). The civic
center turned into a large bowling alley
complete with state of the art lanes. We
run into situations like this when the civic
center or halls we use are the only ones
that can fit our shows, said Tommy Mantini
of Show Technology. We have to be
flexible but then again I know that this year
we would have pent up demand and it
showed during this event.
What impressed many was the carpeted
aisles and the amount of room to
comfortably move around. I thought this
was one of the nicest shows weve had in

same concerns regarding lots in 2011 and

that ratio shot up to 58 percent in 2014.
Concerns over building materials stood
at 58 percent among builders in 2014, up
from 33 percent in 2011.

some time, said Associates Chairman

Sam Shallenberger. We had new displays
and exhibitors and that was a nice thing to
have.
The presenting attraction was the Wall
Wizard, Brian Santos who did several
demonstrations during the three day event.
I really love coming to El Paso and seeing
so many folks for the first time, Brian told
the Outlook. The El Paso Association of
Builders has helped me get other gigs with
other associations and Im grateful for the
recommendation, he continued. Santos,
who has authored several how to books
and is an inventor and innovator for several
companies including Home Depot. My
relationship with Rubber Maid and Home
Depot and Lowes is really a great thing to

Single-Family Continues to Post Gains

Turning to the forecast, NAHB is
projecting 719,000 single-family starts in
2015, up 11 percent from the 647,000 units
produced last year. Single-family
production is projected to increase an
additional 27 percent in 2016 to 914,000
units.
On the multifamily side, production ran at
354,000 units last year, slightly above the
331,000 level that is considered a normal
level of production. Multifamily starts are
expected to rise 9 percent to 387,000 units
this year and post a modest 3 percent
decline to 378,000 units in 2016.
Residential remodeling activity is
forecasted to increase 6.8 percent in 2015
over last year and rise an additional 6.1
percent in 2016.
Continued Page 6

Advertise your
business to the
home building
industry

bring to the consumer because I know

whats hot in the world of walls, Santos
said.
Our sincere thanks to CTU Metro Homes
and all the suppliers and the staff of David
Acosta Real Estate. We also owe a debt
of gratitude to the exhibitors who filled the
civic center with good products and lots of
things for the visitor to see. Our Spring
Home and Garden Show is on for March
11-13, 2016. Dont miss this opportunity to
reach potential customers. Visit Show
Technology today at
www.showtechnology.com to get
information on the Spring show.
See More Photos Page 8

The Builders Outlook is the official publication of the El

Paso Association of Builders. Our award winning monthly
newspaper is the only publication to target El Paso home
builders and related businesses.

Widely distributed throughout the city and available to

readers online, the Builders Outlook is an important
advertising medium for any business that want to reach this
valuable market.

Call 778-5387 today for more information